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Assumption
Income Statement
Sales
Cost of Sales
Depreciation
Interest Income
Interest Expense
For STD calculate based on average balance and interest rate specified later
For LTD interest expense will remain unchanged at $13.5 million
Income Taxes
Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash and Marketable Securities
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Accumulated Depreciation
Short-Term Debt
Long-Term Debt
Paid-In Capital
Retained Earnings
Other Assumptions
Dividend payout ratio
P/E ratio
Will decline to 16 in 2009 and then improve to 18, 20, and 22 in the following years
Scenario Summary
Current Values:
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Changing Cells:
$J$6
5.0%
7.0%
3.0%
$J$7
50.0%
49.0%
51.0%
$J$10
29.0%
28.0%
30.0%
$J$33
8.0%
7.0%
9.0%
Result Cells:
2016
NI
$150.53
$189.05
$114.84
EPS
$3.26
$4.09
$2.49
D/S
$1.30
$1.64
$0.99
ROE
16.9%
20.3%
13.6%
2017
NI
$158.48
$206.03
$115.23
EPS
$3.43
$4.46
$2.49
D/S
22.0
22.0
22.0
ROE
16.1%
19.6%
12.6%
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
Historical period
2013
$1,334.4
$667.0
$667.4
2014
$1,481.2
$699.6
$728.18
Forecast Period
2015
$1,644.1
$748.6
$779.15
$373.3
$75.2
($8.2)
$227.1
$399.79
$78.16
($9.99)
$260.23
$427.77
$83.63
($10.69)
$278.45
Interest (Income)
Interest Expense
Pre-Tax Income
($2.0)
$23.7
$205.4
($1.79)
$18.66
$243.32
($1.97)
$13.83
$266.48
Income Taxes
Net Income
$72.6
$132.8
$85.16
$158.16
$93.27
$173.21
$40.1
$92.7
$63.26
$94.89
$69.29
$103.93
Assets
Cash and Marketable Securities
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
$28.4
$120.1
$116.8
$97.5
$362.8
$31.10
$119.94
$125.65
$108.51
$384.08
$34.53
$128.33
$134.44
$116.11
$410.97
$913.1
$427.9
$485.2
$977.02
$506.06
$470.96
$1,045.41
$589.69
$455.71
$456.3
$941.5
$501.93
$972.9
$552.12
$1,007.8
$1,304.3
$1,357.0
$1,418.8
$80.5
$110.3
$111.3
$302.1
$90.4
$37.2
$118.5
$238.6
$100.3
($27.9)
$131.5
$187.5
Long-Term Debt
Deferred Income Taxes
Other Non-Current Liabilities
$218.1
$12.7
$94.5
$218.1
$20.7
$112.6
$218.1
$23.0
$125.0
Dividends
Addition to Retained Earnings
Total Assets
Total Liabilities
$627.4
$585.2
$543.1
$44.8
$632.1
$676.9
$44.8
$727.0
$771.8
$44.8
$830.9
$875.7
$1,304.3
$1,357.0
$1,418.8
$51.40
46.2
$54.78
46.2
$67.50
46.2
Valuation Ratios
EPS
Dividend per Share
P/E Ratio
P/B (price to book) Ratio
Dividend Payout Ratio
$2.87
$0.87
17.9
3.5
30%
$3.42
$1.37
16.0
3.3
40%
$3.75
$1.50
18.0
3.6
40%
Profitability Ratios
Return on Equity (ROE)
Return on Sales (ROS)
21.2%
17.0%
21.8%
18.2%
21.0%
18.2%
Growth Rates
EPS Growth Rate
Dividend Growth Rate
Sales Growth Rate
EBIT Growth Rate
Net Income Growth Rate
1.4%
2.1%
2.6%
3.7%
0.1%
19.1%
57.8%
7.0%
14.6%
19.1%
9.5%
9.5%
7.0%
7.0%
9.5%
Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
1.20
0.49
1.61
0.63
2.19
0.86
5.7
11.1
5.8
11.9
5.8
11.9
32.7%
21.7%
48.5%
24.9%
21.2%
33.1%
17.8%
21.2%
21.7%
9.6
13.9
20.1
Paid-In Capital
Retained Earnings
Total Shareholders' Equity
Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
Discretionary Funding Need (DFN)
Other Data
Stock price (year-end)
Average number of shares outstanding (millions)
Financial Indicators
Leverage Ratios
Total Debt to Total Capitalization
Long-Term Debt to Total Capitalization
Total Debt to Equity
Coverage Ratios
Times Interest Earned (TIE)
12.8
18.1
26.2
EBIT
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
$318.79
233.3429049152
246.5711744716
260.1942856487
274.2200182655
288.6562280415
303.510846597
318.7918814528
334.5074160306
350.6656096525
367.2746975415
384.3429908212
Forecast Period
Forecasting
Factor
7.0%
49.0%
2016
$1,825.0
$801.0
$833.70
2017
$2,025.7
$857.1
$892.05
$457.72
$89.49
($11.44)
$297.94
$489.76
$95.75
($12.24)
$318.79
28.0%
8.0%
-0.7%
($2.19)
$9.08
$290.85
($2.43)
$3.95
$316.97
-6.0%
7.0%
$101.80
$189.05
$110.94
$206.03
35.0%
$75.62
$113.43
$82.41
$123.62
40.0%
$38.32
$137.31
$143.85
$124.24
$439.73
$42.54
$146.93
$153.92
$132.93
$470.51
2.1%
8.4%
8.8%
7.6%
$1,118.59
$679.18
$439.41
$1,196.89
$774.93
$421.96
7.0%
$607.34
$1,046.7
$668.07
$1,090.0
10.0%
$1,486.5
$1,560.5
$111.3
($98.4)
$146.0
$132.1
$106.7
($174.4)
$139.9
$72.2
$218.1
$25.5
$138.7
$218.1
$24.5
$132.9
6.1%
8.0%
1.4%
7.6%
$497.3
$447.8
$44.8
$944.4
$989.2
$44.8
$1,068.0
$1,112.8
$1,486.5
$1,560.5
$81.85
46.2
$98.12
46.2
$4.09
$1.64
20.0
3.8
40%
$4.46
$1.78
22.0
4.1
40%
20.3%
18.2%
19.6%
18.2%
9.1%
9.1%
7.0%
7.0%
9.1%
9.0%
9.0%
7.0%
7.0%
9.0%
3.33
1.30
6.51
2.54
5.8
11.9
5.8
11.9
10.8%
20.5%
12.1%
3.8%
19.7%
3.9%
32.8
80.6
42.7
NI
$206.03
206.03097207
206.03097207
206.03097207
206.03097207
206.03097207
206.03097207
206.03097207
206.03097207
206.03097207
206.03097207
206.03097207
104.9
Div/Sh
$1.78
1.0733467181
1.144912145
1.2185680107
1.2943549638
1.3723141587
1.452487145
1.534915868
1.6196426678
1.7067102802
1.7961618359
1.8880408613
ROE
19.60%
0.1315843901
0.1389445327
0.1463838701
0.1539007135
0.1614933545
0.1691600556
0.1768990516
0.1847085526
0.1925867461
0.2005317991
0.2085418607