Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
PAGE 4
ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT
INVESTMENT
STRATEGY
OUARTERLY
China:
Global perspectives
on change and challenge PAGE 5
Turn Off The Noise:
A
re we back to
The Fed:
normal volatility?
Delayed, but
not forgotten
Oversupply:
PAGE 8
PAGE 10
PAGE 12
Investment Strategy Quarterly is intended to communicate current economic and capital market information along with the informed perspectives of our investment professionals. You may contact your
financial advisor to discuss the content of this publication in the context of your own unique circumstances. Published 10/01/2015. Material prepared by Raymond James as a resource for its financial advisors.
OCTOB E R 2015
ENERGY
Oil and gas prices are in a bear market, though some of oils
recent decline is sentiment-driven, as a result of Chinese
headlines that pushed equities down as well. Ultimately, we
think there will be an oil price recovery toward the end of 2016
as a supply response materializes.
U.S. HOUSING
ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT
The economic outlook is mixed. Softer global growth and a strong dollar are expected to restrain
export growth. However, the domestic economy appears to be in good shape, supported by strong
job growth, accommodative monetary policy, and low oil prices. Fed policymakers expect to begin
SCOTT BROWN
Chief Economist,
Equity Research
raising short-term interest rates by the end of the year, but the pace of tightening beyond the first
move, while data-dependent, is expected to be very gradual.
NEUTRAL OUTLOOK
POSITIVE OUTLOOK
ECONOMIC
STATUS INDICATOR
COMMENTARY
GROWTH
GDP growth is likely to be restrained somewhat by a fall in net exports and an inventory correction, but
consumer spending and business fixed investment should remain relatively strong in the near term.
EMPLOYMENT
Job losses remain limited. New hiring appears to have remained moderately strong, led by gains in
small and medium-sized businesses.
CONSUMER
SPENDING
Nominal wage growth has remained relatively lackluster, but the drop in oil prices has added
significantly to consumer purchasing power.
HOUSING AND
CONSTRUCTION
Job growth has been supportive and bank mortgage lending has gotten somewhat easier, but we still
have a long way to go for a full recovery.
INFLATION
Consumer price inflation has been close to 0% y/y, reflecting the drop in gasoline prices. Pipeline
inflation pressures are minimal.
MONETARY
POLICY
Fed officials believe that downward pressure on inflation will be transitory, and most expect that it will
be appropriate to begin raising short-term interest rates by the end of the year. The pace of tightening
should be gradual.
The dollar has been largely range-bound against the major currencies since mid-March, but rallied
significantly against the smaller currencies in the late spring and summer.
BUSINESS
INVESTMENT
The contraction in energy exploration and the soft global economy have been restraints, but orders
have picked up somewhat following a poor first half.
MANUFACTURING
Auto production has remained strong, but factory output has been mixed and generally lackluster
otherwise (reflecting the impact of a strong dollar).
LONG-TERM
INTEREST RATES
Long-term interest rates should drift gradually higher as the economy improves and the Fed starts to
raise short-term rates. However, we may continue to see a flight to safety (lower bond yields) on global
concerns.
FISCAL POLICY
There is a strong likelihood of a government shutdown over the federal budget and debt ceiling by the
end of the year.
REST OF
THE WORLD
The outlook for China and other emerging market economies has grown more uncertain, rattling
investor nerves. Its difficult to gauge how much the global economy may slow over the near term.
OCTOB E R 2015
China:
Global perspectives
on change and challenge
Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist, Equity Research
Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT, Senior Vice President, Private Client Strategist and Portfolio Manager, Raymond James Ltd.*
Chris Bailey, European Strategist, Raymond James Euro Equities*
A U.S. PERSPECTIVE
China has been a key concern for investors in recent months. The
SCOTT BROWN
Chief Economist,
Equity Research
would require that the exchange rate be set by the market, rather
Its not all bad news. Lower commodity prices, especially the
ment didnt last long, as the currency fell sharply in just two days,
months ahead.
Ryan Lewenza
Chinas growth has averaged about 10% per year over the last
China
(continued)
activity. The other key drag on economic growth has been the
gering 25% per year until 2007. Since 2014, real export growth has
together, it becomes clear that the outlook for China will largely
drive the outlook for commodities. And on that, it should come
as no surprise that as Chinas GDP growth has slowed from an
average of 9.4% in the 2000s to 7% in 2015, that demand for commodities has waned, and prices have fallen.
The question then is what is the outlook for Chinas growth?
China is currently undergoing a massive transformation. This
transformation in part explains the deceleration of economic
COMMODITY PRICES
MIRROR CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH
16%
50%
40%
incredible rate, building roads, airports and highspeed rail, to support the continued urbanization
and growth of the country.
30%
12%
20%
10%
0%
8%
-10%
-20%
-30%
4%
-40%
1996
1998
2001
2004
2006
2009
2012
UNITED STATES
17%
CHINA
51%
OCTOB E R 2015
A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE
Chris Bailey
kets were equivalent to over 10% of their GDP and for the
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
A slowdown in China would not mean much for the
U.S. economy directly. China accounted for a little over
7% of U.S. exports in 2014, less than 1% of GDP.
Putting it all together, it becomes clear that the outlook
for China will largely drive the outlook for commodities.
Given the slowdown in China, we have maintained a
cautious view of commodities.
Europes trade links with China remain a medium-term
tailwind rather than a headwind as the ending of recent
over-reliance on the Middle Kingdoms economic
development can actually be turned into an impetus for
further required European reform.
Kristin Byrnes, Committee Vice-Chair, Product Strategy Analyst, Wealth, Retirement & Portfolio Solutions
WHAT HAPPENED LAST QUARTER?
June 12, 2015 marked the beginning of a significant correction in Chinas stock market which
spanned most of the summer months. Despite several attempts by the Chinese government to
halt the sell-off, the Shanghai Composite Index lost nearly 43%, peak-to-trough. Roughly two
months later, on August 17, the Dow Jones Industrial Average embarked on a more muted correction, losing 10% over the course of seven consecutive trade days.
Further complicating matters for China, government officials made a surprising move by devaluing
the yuan, Chinas national currency. Chief Economist Scott Brown, Ph.D. explains the failed experiment: They were not trying to boost exports by weakening their currency. What they were trying to do
was move towards a free-floating currency - to have a market-based determination of the exchange
General consensus
believes that recent
market activity,
while unpleasant, is
a healthy correction
and a normal part
of the equity
market cycle.
rate. What was actually an attempt to implement positive structural reform quickly turned into a
misinterpreted signal by investors that further economic slowdown was to be expected.
WHERE ARE WE NOW?
ened volatility, yet remains up around 30% over the last year,
speculators from the market and paving the way for a return
U.S. equity markets have since followed suit, with the Dow
the tide goes out do you discover whos been swimming naked.
So what does this say about the future state of the equity mar-
is what I am, what happened over the last several weeks is just
OCTOB E R 2015
ular bull market that still has another eight or nine years left to
current risk levels, participating in the glut of buying opportunities available in oversold markets, or simply staying on track;
managing expectations surrounding risk/return objectives
is central to reducing investor surprise, panic, and emotional
decision-making during volatile market environments.
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
Chinas stock market decline is not really indicative of economic weakness, nor is it necessarily
going to cause economic weakness. That said,
Chinese growth has slowed. - Scott Brown, Ph.D.
80
60
VIX
20-Year Average
40
20
0
Aug.
1995
Aug.
1997
Aug.
1999
Aug.
2001
Aug.
2003
Aug.
2005
Aug.
2007
Aug.
2009
Aug.
2011
Aug.
2013
Aug.
2015
The Fed:
financial
market
participants
DOUG DRABIK
Senior Strategist,
Retail Fixed Income
10
tantrum. Bond yields rose, emerging economies experienced financial strains, and the
Fed ultimately delayed, but did not permanently postpone, its tapering of QE3.
This time around, bond yields havent taken off,
but stock market participants here and abroad are
still nervous. If not for the recent global financial
volatility, the Fed would likely have begun raising
short-term interest rates in September.
Why raise rates? The Fed would not be hitting the brakes so much as starting to take
the foot off the gas pedal. Inflation isnt
really a problem. The strong dollar and lower
OCTOB E R 2015
The labor market is the widest channel for inflation pressure. Wage growth has remained lackluster, but should
eventually pick up as the job market improves further. A
number of Fed officials have been surprised that we
havent seen strong wage growth, given the drop in the
unemployment rate and strong pace of growth in nonfarm
payrolls over the last year. There may be a number of factors (for example, the decline in union power or the ability
of firms to cast a wider net when hiring) that are limiting
wage pressures.
Fed officials are divided on the perceived risks. The
hawks always seem to see inflation around every bend
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
Fed officials believe that the precise timing of the
initial move should not be important. What matters
is the pace of tightening, and officials expect rate
hikes to be very gradual.
The Feds focus is clearly on the domestic economy, which appears to be in good shape, but officials do need to take into account how overseas
reactions to Fed action might influence things here.
Monetary policy will still be very accommodative
even after the first few Fed rates hikes.
11
Oversupply:
Q
&A with Pavel Molchanov, Senior Vice President, Energy Analyst, Equity Research
Q: U
.S. and international oil stockpiles are near record highs.
Why is the market so saturated on the supply side?
A: T
here are three fundamental reasons why the physical
oversupply of oil is so visible globally. First, Saudi Arabias
oil production is running at record-high levels, up 7% yearover-year, as it continues its price war with non-OPEC
producers such as the U.S., Russia, and Brazil. Saudi
behavior is starting to become irrational, and of course it
cannot keep worsening the oil glut forever. However, as
things stand, we have to assume that its record production
will continue into 2016. Second, Iraqs production has
soared which may seem counterintuitive, given the
ongoing headlines about the war with ISIS. On a percentage basis, Iraq stands out as the fastest-growing major
oil producer of 2015: up more than 15% year-over-year,
ahead of most expectations. Third, non-OPEC oil supply
which is two-thirds of the world total hasnt yet begun to
exhibit significant declines. To be clear, this will eventually
happen, given the extent to which the entire industry is in
austerity mode, but it will likely be the second half of 2016
before the non-OPEC declines become meaningful.
Q: W
hat will ultimately trigger price recovery in the oil
market, and do you see volatility being a common theme
going forward?
selloff. The 2015 global oil demand picture (up 2%) looks
is supply that will have to fix the oil market. The quickest
the price war. But if that does not happen, then it may take
12
OCTOB E R 2015
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
It is overwhelmingly supply that is the culprit behind
the oil selloff. So it is supply that will have to fix
the oil market.
There is no escaping the fact that volatility will persist.
Over the past year weve seen close correlations
among just about all commodities. In the case of the
main staple crops, prices are at or near the lowest
levels since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.
13
CONSERVATIVE
CONSERVATIVE
BALANCED
BALANCED
BALANCED
WITH GROWTH
GROWTH
EQUITY
31%
51%
67%
78%
93%
18%
31%
35%
35%
42%
4%
7%
9%
10%
11%
2%
3%
5%
6%
7%
7%
10%
14%
17%
21%
0%
0%
4%
6%
8%
0%
0%
0%
4%
4%
67%
47%
31%
15%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
39%
27%
17%
15%
0%
5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Non-Investment Grade
Fixed Income (High Yield)
4%
5%
4%
0%
0%
4%
4%
4%
0%
0%
Multi-Sector Bond*
15%
11%
6%
0%
0%
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
0%
0%
0%
5%
5%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
FIXED INCOME
Investment Grade Long
Maturity Fixed Income
Investment Grade Intermediate
Maturity Fixed Income
14
OCTOB E R 2015
July 2015
Oct. 2015
OVERALL EQUITY
Equities showed increased volatility in 3Q with elevated valuations and negative momentum. Despite these characteristics, it remains one of the few places with positive
expected return potential in the near term.
In sustained periods of volatility, large caps tend to hold up better than their smaller counterparts. Valuations are not as expensive as mid and small caps, and if the USD continues
to rise, it will likely be at a slower growth rate than experienced over the last 12 months.
Mid caps have seen a substantial run up in valuations over the past 6 years and are currently
trading at stretched multiples. The strong momentum tailwind has abated this quarter, suggesting that expected returns may not compensate investors for the risk exposure of this segment.
TACTICAL COMMENTS
UND
ERW
EIGH
T
SLIG
H
T
UND
ERW
EIGH
T
NEU
TRA
L
SLIG
OVE HT
RWE
IGHT
OVE
RWE
IGHT
recommendation relative to your individual asset allocation policy, risk tolerance and investment objectives.
U.S. small caps have been more isolated from the global economy relative to their larger
brethren. Pockets of relative attractiveness exist in this space, particularly on the value side.
Growth-style, on the other hand, look very expensive making them less attractive.
Double-digit returns earned in H1 this year were erased in 3Q due to concerns over
global growth. Positive growth prospects and quantitative easing remain tailwinds
while political unity and structural reform remain concerns.
This space is oversold from a market-sentiment standpoint and is due for an eventual
rebound. While long-term prospects are attractive, volatility will likely continue in the near
term. Opportunities exist for investors who can tolerate near-term instability.
Real estate securities provide diversification benefits against equity risk, but impending rising interest rates could negatively impact these rate-sensitive investments. Still, pockets of
growth do exist, particularly outside of the U.S. Active management is recommended here.
Fixed income will likely react negatively to the Fed raising short-term rates over the
next 6-12 months, however, we do not recommend abandoning strategic allocations
altogether. A slight underweight in this space seems prudent at this time.
This is the most attractive part of the yield curve based on forward markets, due in part to expectations that long-term rates will fall as the Fed raises short-term rates. Potential for positive
returns in the near term and strong diversification benefits relative to equities make us neutral.
Intermediate-term bonds are unattractive relative to the long end of the curve and
will likely be impacted, to some degree, by the potential rise in short-term rates.
Short-term fixed income has the lowest duration, but is also the most expensive and
overbought. This is a crowded trade and does not have positive prospects once the
Fed begins raising short-term rates.
Non-Investment Grade
Fixed Income (High Yield)
Spreads are somewhat tight here suggesting investors are not being adequately
compensated for the embedded equity risk taken on by these holdings.
While QE can be viewed as a headwind for many global bond markets, this low
yielding environment does not offer the necessary protection against currency risk.
Active management is recommended here.
Multi-Sector Bond*
Multi-strategy bonds are likely to outperform core fixed income as interest rates
rise. However, they are relatively expensive and tend to provide less diversification
from equity downturns due to the embedded equity risk within these strategies.
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
Alternatives have the potential to offer diversification benefits, and profit from market
dislocations. Declining intra-stock correlations bode well for L/S Equity strategies while
heightened volatility is typically a tailwind to Global Macro/Managed Futures.
Volatility within the capital markets leads to buying opportunities for those who have
cash reserves available to invest.
Refer to back page for model definitions. *Refer to page 18 for multi-sector bond asset class definition.
15
JENNIFER SUDEN
Director of Alternative
Investments Research
dynamic nature of financial markets, our opinion could change as market conditions dictate. Investors should
consult their financial advisors to formulate a strategy customized to their preferences, needs, and goals.
ALTERNATIVE
INVESTMENTS
Certain alternative investments could provide valuable diversification benefits and profit from market dislocations.
Long/Short Equity strategies have the potential to benefit from declining intrastock correlations. Additionally, elevated
levels of volatility are typically a tailwind to Global Macro/Managed Futures strategies.
EQUITY LONG/SHORT
When markets are driven by fundamentals as opposed to various macro policies and technical factors, correlation among
stocks decline and Long/Short Equity managers can potentially benefit from both long and short positions. If headed into
a more difficult equity environment, short positions have the ability to protect on the downside.
MULTI-MANAGER/
MULTI-STRATEGY
The Multi-Manager, Multi-Strategy category tends to be a more conservative approach to alternative investing. Many
products have relatively low betas and correlation to equities, displaying a volatility profile more akin to fixed income.
These strategies may be appropriate for those looking to diversify existing low-volatility holdings.
MANAGED FUTURES
Managed futures typically benefit from elevated levels of volatility. Dislocations in the global financial markets and
diverging economic policies bode well for these strategies.
EVENT DRIVEN
Event-driven funds include various strategies. Currently, the environment is challenging for Distressed managers given the
decreased opportunity set. Merger Arbitrage managers have found it difficult to generate noteable performance given tight
credit spreads and regulatory concerns. Activism, on the other hand, is a substrategy in which we have high conviction.
EQUITY
MARKET NEUTRAL
Similar to Equity Long/Short, Equity Market Neutral funds are likely to perform better in periods when stock prices are
trading based upon fundamentals with low intrastock correlation.
COMMODITIES
Global growth concerns and a glut in oil supply make this a difficult area to be constructive in. Long-Short or Managed
Futures strategies may have the ability to profit here, while Long-Only positions are not attractive at this time.
GLOBAL MACRO
Similar to managed futures funds, global macro funds typically benefit from elevated levels of volatility. Dislocations in
the global financial markets and diverging economic policies bode well for these strategies.
3Q15 RETURN
12-MONTH RETURN
16,284.70
-6.98%
-2.11%
S&P 500
1,920.03
-6.44%
-0.61%
NASDAQ
4,620.16
-7.26%
-0.71%
MSCI EAFE
1,644.40
-10.23%
-8.66%
AS OF 6/30/2015
AS OF 9/30/2014
RATES
AS OF 9/30/2015
0.25
0.25
0.25
3-Month LIBOR
0.33
0.28
0.24
2-Year Treasury
0.64
0.64
0.58
10-Year Treasury
2.06
2.34
2.51
30-Year Mortgage
3.84
4.17
4.12
Prime Rate
3.25
3.25
3.25
3Q15 RETURN
12-MONTH RETURN
$1,114.00
-4.87%
-8.43%
$45.09
-24.18%
-50.54%
COMMODITIES
Gold
Crude Oil
*Total Return
16
AS OF 9/30/2015
AS OF 9/30/2015
OCTOB E R 2015
SECTOR SNAPSHOT
This report is intended to highlight the dynamics underlying the
be displayed as such:
time horizon for the sector weightings is not meant to be shortterm oriented. Our goal is to look for trends that can be sustainable
for several quarters; yet given the dynamic nature of financial
markets, our opinion could change as market conditions dictate.
Most investors should seek diversity to balance risk versus
J. MICHAEL GIBBS
Director of Equity Portfolio
& Technical Strategy
OVERWEIGHT
SECTOR
S&P WEIGHT
COMMENTS
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
20.2%
FINANCIALS
16.5%
Our overweight is driven by attractive relative valuation, solid expected earnings growth,
and positive benefits to some subsectors (banks) should interest rates rise. The sector
was hard hit during the recent market decline. It will need to quickly regain performance.
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
13.0%
It is our belief the consumer will spend (job growth, lower energy costs, generally growing
economy) thus allowing many subsectors to benefit. Double-digit earnings growth and
a declining stock market have pushed relative valuations to a less elevated position.
INDUSTRIALS
10.2%
If the global fears are overdone (our opinion) this group is set up to provide relative
performance. The strong USD remains a headwind for manufacturing on the global
stage. Any uptick in the fundamentals leaves this sector with plenty of runway before
valuation becomes an issue. If recent momentum continues to build, our overweight
position may finally be rewarded.
HEALTH CARE
15.3%
Fundamental momentum and M&A activity justify our equal weight stance.
Relative valuation remains elevated; but rising earnings estimates and M&A
activity are supportive of valuation.
CONSUMER
STAPLES
9.6%
Potential for less downside keeps us at equal weight during this period of market
volatility. Earnings are still anemic at only 1.9% growth.
ENERGY
6.9%
Excess supply will continue to weigh on fundamentals in the energy space. Lack of
clarity as to where fundamentals will bottom results in less confidence in current
valuations. The intermediate trend still suggests avoidance of the sector.
UTILITIES
2.9%
Earnings are expected to advance meagerly in 2015. The sector has been held back by a
general consensus that rising interest rates will negatively pressure stock prices.
MATERIALS
2.9%
TELECOM
2.4%
Two stocks, VZ and T make up over 85% of the index. Valuation has pushed below
one standard deviation below the average. Relative performance for the intermediate
term is still weak, however the sector does offer capital preservation and quality high
dividends for those expecting market weakness.
EQUAL WEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
17
18
index also includes Eurobonds and debt issues from countries designated as
emerging markets (sovereign rating of Baa1/BBB+/BBB+ and below using the
middle of Moodys, S&P, and Fitch) are excluded, but Canadian and global bonds
(SEC registered) of issuers in non-EMG countries are included. Original issue
zeroes, step-up coupon structures, 144-As and pay-in-kind bonds (PIKs, as of
October 1, 2009) are also included. Must publicly issued, dollar-denominated
and non-convertible, fixed rate (may carry a coupon that steps up or changes
according to a predetermined schedule, and be rated high-yield (Ba1 or BB+ or
lower) by at least two of the following: Moodys. S&P, Fitch. Also, must have an
outstanding par value of at least $150 million and regardless of call features have
at least one year to final maturity.
Global (Non-U.S.) Fixed Income
Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index: The index is designed to be a broad
based measure of the global investment-grade, fixed rate, fixed income
corporate markets outside of the U.S. The major components of this index are the
Pan-European Aggregate, and the Asian-Pacific Aggregate Indices. The index
also includes Eurodollar and Euro-Yen corporate bonds, Canadian government,
agency and corporate securities.
Multi-Sector Bond
The index for the multi-sector bond asset class is composed of one-third the
Barclays Aggregate US Bond Index, a broad fixed income index that includes
all issues in the Government/Credit Index and mortgage-backed debt securities;
maturities range from 1 to 30 years with an average maturity of nearly 5 years,
one-third the Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index which covers the universe
of fixed rate, non-investment grade debt and includes corporate (Industrial,
Utility, and Finance both U.S. and non-U.S. corporations) and non-corporate
sectors and one-third the J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index, an
unmanaged index of debt instruments of 50 emerging countries.
The Multi-Sector Bond category also includes nontraditional bond funds.
Nontraditional bond funds pursue strategies divergent in one or more ways
from conventional practice in the broader bond-fund universe. These funds have
more flexibility to invest tactically across a wide swath of individual sectors,
including high-yield and foreign debt, and typically with very large allocations.
These funds typically have broad freedom to manage interest-rate sensitivity,
but attempt to tactically manage those exposures in order to minimize volatility.
Funds within this category often will use credit default swaps and other fixed
income derivatives to a significant level within their portfolios.
Alternatives Investment
HFRI Fund of Funds Index: The index only contains fund of funds, which invest
with multiple managers through funds or managed accounts. It is an equalweighted index, which includes over 650 domestic and offshore funds that have
at least $50 million under management or have been actively trading for at least
12 months. All funds report assets in US Dollar, and Net of All Fees returns
which are on a monthly basis.
Cash & Cash Alternatives
Citigroup 3 Month US Treasury Bill: A market value-weighted index of public
obligations of the U.S. Treasury with maturities of 3 months.
KEY TERMS
Long/Short Equity
Long/short equity managers typically take both long and short positions in
equity markets. The ability to vary market exposure may provide a long/short
manager with the opportunity to express either a bullish or bearish view, and to
potentially mitigate risk during difficult times.
Global Macro
Hedge funds employing a global macro approach take positions in financial
derivatives and other securities on the basis of movements in global financial
markets. The strategies are typically based on forecasts and analyses of interest
rate trends, movements in the general flow of funds, political changes, government
policies, inter-government relations, and other broad systemic factors.
Relative Value Arbitrage
A hedge fund that purchases securities expected to appreciate, while simultaneously selling short related securities that are expected to depreciate.
Multi-Strategy
Engage in a broad range of investment strategies, including but not limited
to long/short equity, global macro, merger arbitrage, statistical arbitrage,
structured credit, and event-driven strategies. The funds have the ability to
dynamically shift capital among the various sub-strategies, seeking the greatest
perceived risk/reward opportunities at any given time.
OCTOB E R 2015
Event-Driven
Event-driven managers typically focus on company-specific events. Examples of
such events include mergers, acquisitions, bankruptcies, reorganizations, spinoffs and other events that could be considered to offer catalyst driven investment
opportunities. These managers will primarily trade equities and bonds.
Special Situations
Managers invest in companies based on a special situation, rather than the
underlying fundamentals of the company or some other investment rationale.
An investment made due to a special situation is typically an attempt to profit
from a change in valuation as a result of the special situation, and is generally
not a long-term investment.
Managed Futures
Managed futures strategies trade in a variety of global markets, attempting to
identify and profit from rising or falling trends that develop in these markets.
Markets that are traded often include financials (interest rates, stock indices and
currencies), as well as commodities (energy, metals and agriculturals).
INDEX DEFINITIONS
Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index
A broad-based benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S.
dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries,
government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid
ARM passthroughs), ABS, and CMBS. Securities must be rated investmentgrade or higher using the middle rating of Moodys, S&P and Fitch. When a rating
from only two agencies is available, the lower is used. Information on this index is
available at INDEX-US@BARCLAYS.COM.
DISCLOSURE
All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of Raymond James & Associates,
Inc. and are subject to change. Past performance may not be indicative of future
results. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or
forecasts will occur. The performance mentioned does not include fees and
charges which would reduce an investors return. Dividends are not guaranteed
and will fluctuate. Investing involves risk including the possible loss of capital.
Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee a profit nor protect against
loss. Investing in certain sectors may involve additional risks and may not be
appropriate for all investors.
International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations,
different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic
volatility. Investing in emerging and frontier markets can be riskier than investing
in well-established foreign markets.
Investing in small- and mid-cap stocks generally involves greater risks, and
therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor.
There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and fixed
income prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, fixed income prices fall and
when interest rates fall, fixed income prices rise.
U.S. government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government
and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value.
U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of
principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates
reflecting short-term obligations of the U.S. government.
While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may
be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, or state or local taxes. In addition,
certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal
tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax.
Municipal bonds may be subject to capital gains taxes if sold or redeemed at a profit.
If bonds are sold prior to maturity, the proceeds may be more or less than
original cost. A credit rating of a security is not a recommendation to buy, sell or
hold securities and may be subject to review, revisions, suspension, reduction
or withdrawal at any time by the assigning rating agency.
Commodities and currencies are generally considered speculative because of
the significant potential for investment loss. They are volatile investments and
should only form a small part of a diversified portfolio. Markets for precious
metals and other commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp
price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising.
Investing in REITs can be subject to declines in the value of real estate. Economic
conditions, property taxes, tax laws and interest rates all present potential risks
to real estate investments.
High-yield bonds are not suitable for all investors. The risk of default may
increase due to changes in the issuer's credit quality. Price changes may occur
due to changes in interest rates and the liquidity of the bond. When appropriate,
these bonds should only comprise a modest portion of your portfolio.
Beta compares volatility of a security with an index.
Alternative investments involve specific risks that may be greater than those
associated with traditional investments and may be offered only to clients who meet
specific suitability requirements, including minimum net worth tests. Investors
should consider the special risks with alternative investments including limited
liquidity, tax considerations, incentive fee structures, potentially speculative
investment strategies, and different regulatory and reporting requirements.
Investors should only invest in hedge funds, managed futures, distressed credit
or other similar strategies if they do not require a liquid investment and can bear
the risk of substantial losses. There can be no assurance that any investment will
meet its performance objectives or that substantial losses will be avoided. The
S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks.
The companies engaged in business related to a specific sector are subject to fierce
competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence.
Investing in the energy sector involves risks and is not suitable for all investors.
The performance mentioned does not include fees and charges which would
reduce an investors returns. The indexes are unmanaged and an investment cannot
be made directly into them. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged
index of 30 widely held securities. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged
index of all stocks traded on the NASDAQ over-the-counter market. The S&P 500
is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held securities. The Shanghai Composite
Index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the
Shanghai Stock Exchange.
MODEL DEFINITIONS
Conservative Portfolio: may be appropriate for investors with long-term income
distribution needs who are sensitive to short-term losses yet want to achieve
some capital appreciation. The equity portion of this portfolio generates capital
appreciation, which is appropriate for investors who are sensitive to the effects
of market fluctuation but need to sustain purchasing power. This portfolio, which
has a higher weighting in bonds than in stocks, seeks to keep investors ahead of
the effects of inflation with an eye toward maintaining principal stability.
Conservative Balanced Portfolio: may be appropriate for investors with
intermediate-term time horizons who are sensitive to short-term losses yet want
to participate in the long-term growth of the financial markets. The portfolio,
which has an equal weighting in stocks and bonds, seeks to keep investors well
ahead of the effects of inflation with an eye toward maintaining principal stability.
The portfolio has return and short-term loss characteristics that may deliver
returns lower than that of the broader market with lower levels of risk and volatility.
Balanced Portfolio: may be appropriate for investors with intermediate-term
time horizons who are sensitive to short-term losses yet want to participate in
the long-term growth of the financial markets. This portfolio, which has a higher
weighting in stocks, seeks to keep investors well ahead of the effects of inflation
with an eye toward maintaining principal stability. The portfolio has return and
short-term loss characteristics that may deliver returns lower than that of the
broader equity market with lower levels of risk and volatility.
Balanced with Growth Portfolio: may be appropriate for investors with
long-term time horizons who are not sensitive to short-term losses and want
to participate in the long-term growth of the financial markets. This portfolio,
which has a higher weighting in stocks seeks to keep investors well ahead of the
effects of inflation with principal stability as a secondary consideration. The
portfolio has return and short-term loss characteristics that may deliver returns
slightly lower than that of the broader equity market with slightly lower levels of
risk and volatility.
Growth Portfolio: may be appropriate for investors with long-term time
horizons who are not sensitive to short-term losses and want to participate in
the long-term growth of the financial markets. This portfolio, which has 100%
in stocks, seeks to keep investors well ahead of the effects of inflation with little
regard for maintaining principal stability. The portfolio has return and shortterm loss characteristics that may deliver returns comparable to those of the
broader equity market with similar levels of risk and volatility.
19
Articles with bylines are submitted by industry specialists and reprinted with permission.
Investment products are: not deposits, not FDIC/NCUA insured, not insured by any government agency, not bank guaranteed, subject to risk and may lose value.
2015 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC 2015 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC 15-BDMKT-1921 CW 10/15