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A. Capital Markets
B. Risk & Return
C. SML/CAPM
IN capital markets, you sell securities that are attractive to
investors.
Total Return = Income +Capital Gain
Stock Total Return % = Dividend Yield + Capital Gains Yield
= Next Dividend/ Pt +(Pt+1 Pt/Pt)
See Pp. 376 -377
Disney 2013 Return:
Div Yield = $0.86/52.19 = 1.65%
Capital Gains Yield = 76.4 -52.19/ 52.19 = 46.35%
Total Return = 1.65% + 46.39% = 48.04%
Another way of talking about risk is volatility. Small Companies
stock is more volatile.
US Treasury Bills are risk free. 0% Risk Premium. .Everything else is
measured against it.
Long term Government Bonds have interest rate risks.
First Lesson : Reward for bearing Risk!
More volatility = more risk
Variance measure risk
Average squared difference b/w the average return and actual
return
Standard deviation
Total Risk measured by variance or standard deviation.
For Historica Returns Only
Var(R ) = 1/T-1 x ( R1 R)2 + (R2 R)2 . + (Rt R)2)
0.17
0.22
0.08
-0.15
0.1
0.084
0.084
0.084
0.084
0.084
0.086
0.136
-0.004
-0.234
0.016
0.007396
0.018496
0.000016
0.054756
0.000256
Thusoursecondlessonisthis:Thegreaterthepotentialreward,thegreateris
therisk.
EfficientCapitalMarkets:
1. Efficientmarkethypothesis(EFm)
a. Strongformefficient;pricesreflectjustabouteverything,thereis
noinsiderinformation
b. SemiStrong;pricesreflectallpublicallyavailableinformation,
thereispossiblyaninsiderinformation.
c. Weakformefficient;Pricesreflectastocksownpastprices.
Future Events
1. Expected Return = Probability * Outcome
2. Example: $100 lottery ticket at fundraiser
a. P($10 prze) = 0.85
b. P($100 prize) = 0.1
c. P($1000 prize) = 0.05
Expected Value = $68.5