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Name: Biokoro Prince Onoriode

Student Number: 5186250


Landslides are natural phenomenon that occurs as a mass movement of land over a wide
range of velocities as a result of failure of rock material that make up its slope and is driven by
force of gravity. The damage caused subsequently can be to a great degree. Consequently, it gets to
be important to explore potential zones which are inclined to landslides. While there are different
techniques for researching landslides, GIS programming offers a more exact, precise, and quicker
strategy for examination and map projections which would help in satisfactorily decreasing or even
avoiding damages caused as a result of landslides. This report quickly explains three different
susceptibility degrees to which landslides could occur at the Royal National Park located in New
South wale (NSW) in Australia. These susceptibility degrees to landslides vulnerability areas are
categorized into susceptible, moderately susceptible, and highly susceptible areas. Different
Approaches has been taken considering other factors such as, water proximity, vegetation and slope
and road data. With the aid of ArcGIS, evaluation is done and maps are produced to show zones
within the National Royal Park that are prone to varying degree of landslides.

Landslides are natural phenomenon that leads to the formation of slopes and the evolution
of landscapes. It is the mass movement of rocks, debris and/or earth down slope (Huabi et al.
2005). It occurs as a result of failure of rock materials that make up its slope and is driven by
force of gravity. ). Landslides are categorized based on the type of material involved and the type of
movement (USGS, 2004). Landslide has been known as one of the biggest hazards due to the factors
that cause it, of which most of them are naturally occurring and includes slope angle, climate, water,

vegetation, slope stability, water content, stratigraphy, geotechnical strength parameters,

hydrogeology, geomorphology etc.
It is evident that the earths plates are moving beneath our feet every year (4cm per year), but
sometimes this movement is much larger that it is obvious to seen. These movements could be several
meters even kilometres and could result to huge amount of damage. For instance, on August twentieth
2014, landslides happened in Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan, called '2014 Hiroshima landslides'. In this
landslide no less than 32 have been killed and more than 38 individuals have been missed and it
brought on immense property damage close to a mountain. It is known as deadliest landslides in 42
years (Geological Society of Japan). Australia, likewise, has been confronted by different landslides
in a decade ago. 114 landslides are known to have brought about damage or death from 1842-2011

and no less than 138 individuals have been killed. The greater part of the landslides that brought about
any injuries or death from 2000-2011, has happened as a result of human action (Leiba, 2013).
The latest of these landslides being the Columbia landslides which happened on the nineteenth of
May 2015 and killed 52 individuals, leaving 37 injured (ABC News 2015).
Landslides happen quickly and abruptly. As such landslide prediction becomes of great importance.
GIS programming offers map projections and a more exact, precise, and speedier technique for
examination of past events, and make conceivable future events. This is imperative for foreseeing the
presumable event of landslides as it offers different ways and approaches and give solutions to
minimize landslides impacts.
This report is attempted to get to the landslides inclined circumstance in the Royal National Park,
which is 30 km far from Sydney in New South Wales. Being one of the oldest Parks in the world,
thousands of people visit annually and as such, landslide evaluations and predictions becomes of great

Figure 1. The Royal National Parks gotten from

Different studies have utilized GIS-based mapping or GIS tools for investigating the landslides
possibilities, impacts, proposals and strategy for such occurrences. For instance, GIS was utilized for
landslides susceptibility mapping in Dervrek, Zonguldak, Turkey (Yilmaz et al., 2012). In their study,
they make used of GIS to produce a map of landslide susceptibility and compared the outcomes with a
statistical analysis conducted with three distinctive methodologies in seed cell concept. Another

instance of GIS used for landslide susceptibility mapping (Saro Lee, 2004). In this study, a Bayesian
likelihood model, a probability ration and statistical model, and logistic regression to Janghung, Korea
was used and proved and afterward GIS was utilized to delineate the susceptible landslides territories.
Another example is the utilization of GIS to create landslides hazard maps (Wang and et al., 2010).
With this mapping constructions can be then be built according to the level of hazard and existing
structure can be retrofit as necessary. They utilized new GIS-based by utilizing the contributing
weight model, to evaluate the risk of landslide. Thereafter, map produced was made available to the
public in case there is an earthquake.
The purpose of this study is to group areas of the Royal National Park that are susceptible to landslide
in varying degrees from highly susceptible to moderately susceptible and to susceptible areas.
Thereafter, sections of sealed roads that fall inside the landslides zones are determined and this will
help to define some strategist for rescue if there should be an occurrence of landslides. Likewise,
other factors within the region that could contribute and tigger landslides, such as, vegetations and
water proximity are considered and their effects are investigated and discus.

This project has been undertaken to map landslides susceptibility assessments in the Royal National
Park located at southern fringe of metropolitan Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. This

analysis would help to zone the park into highly susceptible, moderately susceptible and to
susceptible areas to landslides, and to estimate the degree and extent, to which it may cover using

ArcGIS. Furthermore, result are analysed and its implications for evacuating visitors at the Park
in a likelihood of landslide is deduced.

For this analysis, ArcMarp has been solely used to manipulate and interrogated the available
data that has been provided by course coordinator. All data provided have been referenced to
the same coordinate system. With the aid of ArcCatalog, data were carefully managed.
The objectives of this task are as follow:
Using the appropriate GIS tool, we would map out area of the Royal National Park that are
highly susceptible, moderately susceptible and susceptible to landslides and calculate
percentage area of the park that lies in each zone.

Next, is to identify sections of sealed road in the park that falls within each zone of
Thirdly, is to map out all susceptible zones that are at proximal to water source and
after that calculate its percentages in connection to total susceptible areas in the park
Fourth, is defining the vegetation areas in each zone, and determining the vegetation
type and abundance of particular vegetation that is existed in highly and moderately
susceptible areas.
Determine possible factors that are expected to estimate the direction of a landslide starting at
a given point and determine what data layers and ArcGIS tools would be needed.
In conclusion, discuss results, assumptions and limitations encountered.

GIS Tools
Four fundamental characters were utilized as a part of this report to express input,
process, and output.

Input (vector dataset)

ArcGIS Tools

Out put (raster dataset)

Out put (vector datasets)

Below are ArcGIS tools used and their application to the project:
Reclassify: This tool is used to answer a raster database query by creating a new grid which
includes all information in the form of two values 0, and 1. (0 if the query or criteria was not
met and 1 if the query was met).
Buffer: This tool is used to create polygons around an input features to a specified distance. It
makes a boundary (a limit) around that feature at a measure distance
Select: This tool usually creates a new output layer by extracting features from a feature class
as per request using Structured Query Language (SQL) (vector query) expression.
Raster calculator: is used to perform mathematical calculations on raster dataset. The tool
permits making and executing a Map Algebra expression that will output a raster. Raster
calculator uses Boolean algebra and supports several mathematical operators by assigning
values of the variables are the truth-values true and false.

Polygon to raster: It is a conversion tool that converts polygon features to a raster dataset. The
cell_center approach will be use in assigning values to the cells within features.
Polyline to raster: It is a conversion tool that converts Polyline features to a raster dataset. The
Maximum_length approach would be applied in assigning values to the cells within features.
Raster to polygon: This converts raster dataset to polygon features.
Raster Overlay analysis using Union /intercept tool: This tool combines multiple raster
dataset, then unique value determined to each unique combination of input values.
Zonal statistics: Summarizes values in a raster layer by zones (categories) in another layer and
demonstrates the all results in the form of a table.

The GIS data available include; aspect, Boundary, dem, demlandsea, downhill, slope_d, slope_P,
tracks, Veg and water. Using the decision rule set out for the project, each of this data would be
interrogated to map out the different criteria.

The table below and flow chart shows the step taken in arriving at our output in this analysis.

Mapping highly susceptible areas to landslides.

Criteria: Slope should be > 35 degree and must be undercut by water (water must be within
50 meter).
Data used: water dataset and slope_d dataset.
Analysis: First, water layer is buffered by 50m, and is then converted to raster layer.50m Buffered
water is then reclassified (1-451 as 1: and < 1 as 0)
Secondly, reclassification is carried out on slope_d. Slope>35degrees is assigned a value of 1and
slope<35 degrees is a value of zero (0). Finally, raster calculator is used to combine the two new
layers formed using the Boolean (AND (*), a multiplication function) to obtain area that are highly
susceptible as High_sucep1; as show in model below (figure 2). Dataset is added to layer to display
the map of highly susceptible area (Figure 12.).

Figure 2, Shows Model that was used to arrive at area that are highly susceptible to landslide.

Mapping moderately susceptible areas to landslides.

Criteria: if grid cell is steep enough to be a cliff but not at risk from undercutting by water erosion
Data used: water_reclass dataset and sloped1_drecl dataset
Analysis: First, I reclassify the raster layer of water_reclass, and assigned a value of (0 and 1); that is
a reverse of value. The created layer from the first stage (50WaterRecl_Rev1) is then combined with
(sloped1_drecl) created from highly susceptible area. Finally, using the Boolean (AND (*), a
multiplication function) to obtain area that are moderately susceptible as (mod_susccp); as show in
model below (figure 3). Dataset is added to layer to display the map of moderately susceptible area
(Figure 11.).

Figure 3, shows Model that was used to arrive at area that are moderately susceptible to landslide.

Mapping susceptible areas to landslides.

Criteria: Slope greater than 10 percent but not steep enough to be considered a cliff.
Data Used: slope_d and slope_p

Analysis: First, the reclassified tool is used to reverse slope_d > 35degree (used previously in highly
susceptible area) to slope_d <35degree slope, and output is Slope_d35_Rev.
Secondly, slope_p which is the dataset to be used for slope >than 10%, is then reclassified and assign
a value of 1 for slope >10% and the other area was assigned a value of 0 and output is
Finally, using raster calculator; the Boolean (AND (*), a multiplication function) we combine both
layer to obtain area that are susceptible as (susceptible); as show in model below (figure 4). Dataset is
added to layer to display the map of susceptible area (Figure 10).

Figure 4, shows Model that was used to arrive at area that are susceptible to landslide.

Percentage area of the Park in each zone that is susceptible to landslide

This is determined with a simple mathematical calculation by multiplying the cell size of each area
and divide by the whole area of national park. Result is dhow in table 2 in result section.

Mapping the sections of sealed roads within the Park that fall within each susceptibility zone.
Aim: To identify seal road that fell on or intercept each susceptible area.
Data Used: track dataset + (combined) with each susceptible area. Track dataset is used because it
contains all roads, tracks, walking paths, trails, highway, sealed major public road, and sealed minor
public road within the park.
Analysis: first, Select tool is used to select highway, sealed major public road, and sealed minor
public road from other road in the park. Using Type for selecting them and the SQL was express as
'Type = ' Sealed major public road' OR Type = ' Sealed minor public road'. The resulting data is
tracks_SealedRD.shp. Thereafter, tracks_SealedRD.shp was then converted to raster. The new raster
dataset was reclassified as 1-96 as 1 and Nodata as 0 to get sealed road. The output data is
SealedR_Recl (Figure5).

Figure 5, shows Model that was used to arrive at sealed road. Highway, Sealed major public road, and sealed minor
public road were selected and vector dataset tracks_SealedRD was created. New selected dataset was converted to
raster as Sealed_Raster, and then reclassified to sealedR_Recl.

To get sealed road that intercept each susceptibility zone (Figure 6), dataset SealedR_Recl was
combined using raster calculator; the Boolean (AND (*), a multiplication function) with each
susceptibility zone; that is highly susceptible, moderately susceptible, and susceptible datasets and










Susceptible_Road respectively. These new Dataset are added to layer to display the map and mark
the point of interception with seal road. (Figure 14).

Figure 6, shows Model that was used to arrive at sealed road that fell on each susceptible zone

Percentage of susceptible areas that is located near water

Flooding can trigger a landslide in a susceptible area, so identifying susceptible areas that is located
near water is very important.

Criteria: Near water source is defined as within 80 m.

Data Used: water dataset and dataset of each susceptible
Analysis: water dataset is buffered within 80 meter, (output= water_80mBuffered), water_80mBuffered is
then converted to raster- then reclassify as (1-1897 as 1: NOData as 0) to get flood_water. Finally reclassified
dataset (flood_water) is then combined with each susceptibility zone using raster calculator, Boolean (AND (*),
a multiplication function) to obtain susceptible areas that are located near water as flood_hi_Sucp,
flood_mod_suscp and flood_susceptible as show in model below (figure 7). The results were added to

display to show the map of these areas (Figure15)

Figure 7, shows Model builder that was used to arrive at each susceptible zone located near water.

Defining the vegetation areas in each zone, and determining the average
susceptibility level for each vegetation type
Landslides can have long term impacts on vegetation.
Data Used: Vegetation dataset were used to determine the vegetations types that are in highly,
moderately and susceptible areas.
Analysis: The Veg dataset is converted to raster dataset and thereafter, combined with all three areas
(susceptible, moderately susceptible, and highly susceptible) using the combine tool. Combined
dataset is reclassified, giving Not susceptible as 0, susceptible as 1, moderately susceptible as 2, and
highly susceptible as 3, then this data is converted using raster to polygon tool to create vector map
(Figure8). Then, this output mapped to showed the vegetations that are in these areas (Figure16).

Figure 8. Shows Model for vegetation in highly susceptible, moderately susceptible, and susceptible areas, combined
with raster vegetation dataset.

Next is to determine the vegetation types that are in highly or moderately susceptible areas, and the
abundance of these vegetations in these two areas.

The zonal statistic table tool was used to

determine the type of vegetation in highly susceptible and moderately susceptible areas. Figure 9
below shows the model for obtaining new attribute table (table 3 and 4) for highly susceptible and
moderately susceptible areas.

Figure 9. Model created for vegetation types in highly susceptible and moderately susceptible areas. The outputs were
added to display as a table. From these tables the vegetation types, that are located in highly and moderately
susceptible areas would be determined.

The Royal National Park area was mapped to determine susceptible areas to landslides. Output map
would define where in Royal National Park that is susceptible to landslide. Results from analysis of
the area of Park that are susceptible, moderately susceptible and highly susceptible to landslides are as

Susceptible Areas
The map below shows the susceptible areas of the Royal National Park. Susceptible areas cover

larger portion of the park and are located near water source from east site of the Park, where the
ocean is, close to rivers and streams in the middle of the Park. It is known from literature, that Royal
National Park cut-across rivers and creeks, hence; it can be use to determined the spread of
susceptible area by their location close to the water. .

Figure 10. Shows output Map of susceptible area. Areas are indicated by purple colour. It almost cover the entire
land area at the Royal National Park

Moderately Susceptible: it covers smaller portion of the park when compare to susceptible areas and
are mostly located at the southernmost and north-south area of the park.

Figure 11. Shows output Map of moderately susceptible areas to landslide in Royal National Park.
Areas are indicated by yellow colour.

Highly susceptible area: These area covers very small portion of the park and are mostly
located around the boundary of the Royal National Park to the North-East, East, and SouthEast which are known to be closer to the ocean from demlandsea data value, and a few
located to the NNW and centre of the park.

Figure 12. Shows Map of Highly susceptible area to landslide in Royal National Park. Areas are indicated with Red dots

Map below shows all area of the Park that is Susceptible to landslides. It gives a quick overview of
the percentage, the degree of each susceptibility zone in relation to the entire area of the park. It also
compares the ratio or percentage of each susceptibility area with one another, that is, ratio of
susceptible: moderately susceptible: highly susceptible

Figure 13. Shows Map of all susceptible area to landslide in Royal National Park.

The table below further shows the total area covered in the park for each susceptible area.

Area Percentage (%)



Moderately susceptible


Highly susceptible


Table 2 Shows the percentage of each Susceptable area with respect to total area

The section of sealed roads within the park that falls in each susceptibility zone.
Seal road sections are identified and mapped to contain highway, sealed major and minor public roads

Figure 14. Sealed roads, (Highway, major and minor sealed public roads) that run through the Park.

Identifying point of interception of sealed road with each susceptibility area

The map below shows point of intersects of sealed roads with each susceptibility area. This map is
vital as it would give a guide to area that should be avoided during evacuation in a case of a landslide
occurring at the park. With this map, a better evacuation plan can be deduced, to avoid susceptible
zones to landslides. Locations Number 1, 2, and 3, in figure .15 is a possible evacuation point as those
area neither intercept sealed road nor susceptible to landslides.

Figure 15 Shows the extracted sealed roads and their point of intercept with each susceptibility area. location number
1, 2, and 3 suggested as possible point of evacation in case of a landslide event.

Percentage of susceptible areas that is located near water

Flooding can trigger landslide to occur, so it is important to identify and map susceptibility areas in
each zones that are near to water source (within 80 meter is considered as near a water). In addition,
the percentages of all susceptible areas were calculated as shown in Table 3.

Figure 16. Show all susceptible areas prone to flooding. Area was buffered within 80 meter to water source.

Combine percentage of all susceptible area located near water.

Count Value
All Susceptible areas located
within 80 meter to water source
Total susceptible area


Combined Percentage (%)



Table 3. Shows combined percentage of all susceptible areas located near a water source

Defining the vegetation areas in each zone, and determining the average
susceptibility level for each vegetation type
Landslides can have long term impacts on vegetation . In the vegetation dataset of the Royal
National Park, 27 types of vegetation are found in the land area of the park. The areas in the park
where vegetations are in none susceptible area, susceptible, moderately susceptible and highly
susceptible area was identified (Figure 17). Also, three types of vegetation were found to be on

average moderately and highly susceptible as show in table 4.

Figure 17. Shows degree of each vegetation type in Royal National Park, regarded as Not susceptible, suscpetible,
moderatly suscpetible ,and highly suscepltibe.

Table 4 shows the table used for percentage calculation. The highlighted cells are the top 3 vegetation, determine by
vegetation types with the largest area.

Results shows that that susceptible areas are mostly located near water source and located
away from the ocean. The moderately susceptible areas are located mostly towards the south, with
some scattered inland. The highly susceptible areas are located mostly around the boundary between
land and ocean with a few scattered inland. It can also be observed that there was a major reduction in
area covered from susceptible to highly susceptible areas. This is confirmed from table 2 as
susceptible areas cover most areas of the park. As a result of close proximity of the susceptible areas
to a water source and its high coverage, we can reason that the susceptible areas were affected by the
presence of the water source. Two assumptions can be concluded from this; first, if the susceptible
areas were as a result of past impacts of the water source then it would imply that there would be a
further increase in moderate to highly susceptible zones. Secondly, if this impact is always happening,
then it could imply that in addition to future increment in moderately and highly susceptible areas,
there would likely be higher danger of landslide event happening. Thus, regardless of the fact there is
a higher susceptible area, this will change later on. This point is further reinforced by the fact that
there is a fair amount of scattering of both moderately and highly susceptible areas around the
northern and western parts of the map where larger body of water source is located.
Sealed road affected by each susceptibility zone are less and as such planning for evacuation
route should be simple. The sealed roads are blocked in three places, one is to the Northwest, the other
is to the Southeast and the last one is on the south-west (Figure 15). This give enough escape routes as
numbered out (1, 2, and 3) in figure 15 as possible point of evacuation.

From table 4, it could be deduced that highly susceptible layer are covered by forest. The
presence of these forest trees could reduce the impact of flooding in this area; as trees will break down
the force and speed of water.
To determine and understand the trajectory of a landslide starting at a given point in RNP, more

data would be needed to further carry out this analysis. In addition to the data used for this
analysis, and the outcome of the analysis, we will need data on history of previous landslides
around and within the areas, Geological data, bedrock data, slope orientation, hydrogeological data
and slope steepness. The combination of these data and when used to map the Royal National Park
would help to develop landslide Hazard maps. With the availability of this data, a GIS analysis can be
conducted. Bedrocks influence the stability of an area to some extent, this will eventually trigger
landslide. So bedrock data should contain rocks type of the area. This could be check from attribute
table, then selected and reclassified to show bedrocks that can influence landslides.

Slope steepness

also trigger landslide, so areas that a steep-cliff should be determine using buffer tool, and then
reclassify to show point of steepness and know its trajectory in case of land movement. Hydrogeology
plays a key role in the stability of a slope. Its influence can be determined by indirect measurement to
know its contribution to triggering a landslide. Hydrogeology data and other water-bodies can be
buffered using the buffer tool and then reclassified and finally use raster calculator to determine point
of interest. The result can be combined to determine the trajectory of a landslide.
There were errors in the data. So having a more accurate data, would yield accurate results.
For instant, in sealed road analysis, moderately and highly susceptible areas fall on the same point
with the susceptible area. Also, vegetation data did not accurately conform to raster calculator during
the analysis. There were also areas that fell outside the boundary in most of the map. All these error
should be put to check to have more precise result.

The result of this project gives a general overview of the susceptibility nature of the Royal national
park in case of landslide occurring. Detail work would be needed to determine the full extent to which
the RNP is susceptible to landslide. This will require more filed work, more data, and further
statistical modeling and analysis.

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