Books

highly mathematical processes that are part of the

social phenomenon occurring within networks. Accordingly, this book is not for the mathematically
faint-of-heart!
Overall, this monograph is a good reference for
the social scientist who wishes to expand his/her
knowledge of the nuances of complexity theory and
its often dense mathematical apparatus. It is also
good for the purist complexity theorist as it illustrates this process using real-world socioeconomic

examples. Vega-Redondos conceptualization of

three driving forces or themes in complex social
networks, which are the dominant elements of this
narrative is extremely useful. While social and economic examples are referred to throughout the book,
these more abstract concepts keep technical and
theoretical approaches at an arms length from particular domains, instead focusing the readers attention on how social processes in networks function
via search, diffusion and play activities.

Past, present and future of the transport sector

Ted Munn
Transport Revolutions: Moving People and
Freight Without Oil by Richard Gilbert and
Anthony Perl
Earthscan Publications, London: 2008, 351
pages, ISBN 9781844072484 (hardback), 45:00
(US$88:00).
The last two words without oil in the subtitle of
this book reveal the authors perspective. The world
may be running out of oil or unable to use what is
there, and there appear to be only band-aid solutions
to this major global crisis. For more than ten years,
alarm bells have been ringing but few people have
been listening.
This book begins with a history of the transport
sector, going back not quite to the invention of the
wheel but it does include the growth and decline of
the British canal system as a means of transporting
goods, which was replaced after only a few decades
by the railways. Another illustration is the rise and
fall in the numbers of horse-drawn carriages that
covered city streets with manure. Automobiles replaced these vehicles in the 1920s, which in turn
contributed to the London smogs of the 1950s and
1960s. One final example is the rise in transatlantic
air travel, which began to exceed ship travel in 1958
(p. 31).
The authors have defined the phrase transport
revolution in the first chapter as a substantial change
in a societys transport activity (the moving of people or freight, or both) that occurs in less than about
25 years (p. 13). Substantial change means one or
both of the following: an ongoing transport activity

Dr R E (Ted) Munn FRSC is a professor emeritus, Environmental Studies at the University of Toronto, Canada; Email:
Ted.munn@utoronto.ca.

Science and Public Policy November 2008

increases or decreases dramatically, say by 50%

over only a few years; or, a new means of transport
becomes prevalent to the extent that it becomes a
part of the lives of 10% or more of a societys population. The historical examples given above clearly
meet these criteria.
A final point is that although a transport revolution
may improve the quality of the human environment
at first, its impact may ultimately be worse than the
technologies that it is replacing. In this connection,
other technological developments occurring at the
same time may increase the speed of social change
for the better or for the worse. In the late 1950s, for
example, the British smokeless zones improved
local air quality but the quality of the countryside air
was enhanced. As one astute observer (Ian Burton)
noted, this was because better ways of heating
houses were developed (such as replacing coalburning fireplaces with gas furnaces). However, because power stations began to be built with taller and
taller chimneys in the 1960s, in order to protect the
local populations from the impacts of sulphurous
fumes, much of Britain began to have acid rain episodes in the 1960s and 1970s, an unintended consequence. The most striking example of such an
unintentional outcome was the Sudbury/Copper Cliff
chimney in Canada that resulted in the acidification
of large swaths of forest in Northern Ontario. On one
occasion the Sudbury plume was tracked by satellite photography southwestward across the Ontario
Bruce Peninsula and Lake Huron into Michigan.
In chapters two to four (Transport Today; Transport and Energy; and Transport's Adverse Effects),
the authors discuss the transport situation with respect to our present, largely oil-based economy. The
book was written before the price of a barrel of oil
rose to more than one hundred dollars, however the
authors discussion is indeed perceptive. Among the
more notable quotes are:
699

Books

More than 95% of the worlds total oil consumption has occurred since the beginning of
the Second World War. (p. 119)
By the year 2012, the cumulative total global
consumption of oil will be approaching about
half of the oil that could ever be extracted.
(p. 119)
About a third of freight transport was movement of oil and oil products, just over half of
which was used to fuel the movements of
people and freight. (p. 67)
The most important fact about oil availability is
that the peak of discovery of new oil is long
past and the rate of world-wide consumption is
now three or four more times the rate of discovery. (p. 124)
In this connection, the authors draw attention to the
ratios of global reserves to global consumption of
oil, and global reserves to global production of oil.
They note that while the Alberta Tar Sands is a huge
untapped source of oil, in using present technologies
considerable quantities of energy are required to extract oil, the implications of which have not been
fully examined.
Chapters two to four are filled with important
information. The examples are drawn mostly from
single-sector situations of global scale (such as the
international centres for sorting parcels), or, local/regional transport examples (for instance the
large numbers of small cars in China). However, the
authors also discuss recent technological and socioeconomic developments that may trigger revolutions in the transport field. These include:
the recent and sudden rise (and subsequent decline) in the price of a barrel of oil;
hybrid electric automobiles;
increasing public demands for improved environmental quality.

might take to counteract the negative environmental

and socioeconomic impacts that would ensue. In
these chapters, the authors are looking for energy
options that do not depend on oil. In my mind, these
are the most important chapters in the book and
should be brought to the attention of policy makers
worldwide. The authors begin with scenarios for the
year 2025, using a business-as-usual scenario as a
reference case. They then present a series of recommendations which include: the creation of a transport redevelopment agency; the termination of
highway and airport expansion programmes; taxing
oil-based transport fuels; the development of highspeed rail corridors; and, an increase in electricity
generation. The book concludes with case studies in
China and Saudi Arabia, and a draft oil depletion
protocol.
Overall, this book is well written and informative.
It has only one major gap: there is no discussion of
simulation models and gaming theory. According to
the authors, forecasting about the future is not an
easy task. So what they provide is more a set of suggestions as to how transport could unfold than predictions as to how it will unfold (p. 256). However,
if ones aim is to improve prediction capabilities, it
is possible to develop a range of scenarios: options
that are inclusive, and thus describe the future behaviour of related processes such as climate change,
new technologies, and changing political and socioeconomic patterns. Such a set of scenarios would
allow simulation models to be developed in order to
arrive at a cluster of alternate transport futures and
consequently offer policy makers additional constructive advice on what actions are most likely to be
harmful or beneficial to the transport sector. This
type of scenario approach is nicely detailed in a
study on the future of Europe, by Stigliani et al.
(1989). Despite this omission, Transport Revolutions
offers compelling insights about an area that requires
serious and sustained reflection when thinking about
the years to come.
Reference

Chapter five (The Next Transport Revolutions), and

chapter six (Leading the Way Forward) contain
some original ideas on the future of the transport
sector along with insights on the actions that society

700

Stigliani, W, F Brouwer, R Munn, R Shaw and M Antonovsky

1989. Future environments for Europe: Some implications of
alternative development paths. Science of the Total Environment, 80(1), 1102.

Science and Public Policy November 2008