Visayas Power Summit - April 26

Electric Power
Supply-Demand Outlook for 2012-2030

Sec. Carlos Jericho L. Petilla
Department of Energy
Visayas Power Summit
Waterfront Hotel
26 April 2013
LUZON
SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK
2012-2030
Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook

2012-2030
23000
Critical Periods
21000
At 4.12% Peak Demand Growth Rate

2016 on existing capacity
2019 on existing capacity with
committed capacities
19000
17000
15000

13000
11000
9000
Existing Capacity
Existing + Committed
Peak Demand @ 4.12 GR + RM
Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM
Notes
a. Demand curve as plotted includes total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM)
i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement
b. 4.12% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the utilities
to DOE
c. 5.28% peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for
electric power with national economic growth applied to 6.6 percent GDP growth rate (GR)
for 2012.
3
Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook

2012-2030
Scenario: Existing Capacity less Oil-based Power Plants
Critical Periods
At 4.12% Peak Demand Growth
Rate
2013 both on existing capacity
and with committed capacities
Notes
i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement
b. 4.12% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the utilities
to DOE
for 2012.
Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030

with Indicative Projects for 2013-2014
23000
Critical Periods
21000

2023 if with indicative capacities
19000
17000
15000
13000
11000
9000
Existing Capacity
With Indicative

Notes
i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).
b. 4.12% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand submitted by the
utilities to DOE
for 2012.
Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030

Critical Periods
2013 both for existing capacity
and with committed
capacities
Notes
i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).
utilities to DOE
for 2012.
Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook Data

2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
10,744
11,587
12,180
9,900
3.84%
3.32%
10,019
5.28%
4.57%
10,744
11,612
13,274
10,212
3.62%
3.15%
10,480
5.28%
4.60%
10,744
11,763
13,425
10,542
3.70%
3.23%
10,965
5.28%
4.63%
10,744
11,763
13,425
10,880
3.66%
3.21%
11,475
5.28%
4.66%
10,744
11,763
13,425
11,244
3.79%
3.34%
12,013
5.28%
4.68%
10,744
11,763
13,425
11,620
3.79%
3.35%
12,579
5.28%
4.71%
10,744
11,763
13,425
12,010
3.78%
3.36%
13,175
5.28%
4.74%
10,744
11,763
13,425
12,415
3.77%
3.36%
13,802
5.28%
4.76%
10,744
11,763
13,425
12,906
4.42%
3.96%
14,463
5.28%
4.78%
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
10,744
11,763
13,425
13,419
4.42%
3.98%
15,158
5.28%
4.81%
10,744
11,763
13,425
13,955
4.42%
3.99%
15,890
5.28%
4.83%
10,744
11,763
13,425
14,514
4.42%
4.01%
16,661
5.28%
4.85%
10,744
11,763
13,425
15,099
4.42%
4.02%
17,472
5.28%
4.87%
10,744
11,763
13,425
15,709
4.42%
4.04%
18,326
5.28%
4.89%
10,744
11,763
13,425
16,346
4.42%
4.05%
19,225
5.28%
4.91%
10,744
11,763
13,425
17,011
4.42%
4.07%
20,172
5.28%
4.92%
10,744
11,763
13,425
17,705
4.42%
4.08%
21,169
5.28%
4.94%
10,744
11,763
13,425
18,430
4.42%
4.10%
22,218
5.28%
4.96%
Existing Capacity
10,744
10,749
With Indicative
Peak Demand @ 4.12 GR + RM 9,582
GR Peak Demand
GR Peak Demand + RM
Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM 9,582
GR Peak Demand
GR Peak Demand + RM
-
Existing Capacity
With Indicative
GR Peak Demand
GR Peak Demand + RM
GR Peak Demand
GR Peak Demand + RM
Average
GR
4.12%
3.70%
5.28%
4.78%
7
Installed and Dependable Capacities

in Luzon
Fuel
Type
Installed Capacity
(MW)
2012
Difference
(MW)
2011
Dependable Capacity
Difference
(MW)
(MW)
2012
2011
Coal
3,879
3,849
30
3,664
3,531
133
Oil Based
1,757
1,984
-227
1,633
1,586
48
Natural Gas
2,861
2,861
2,770
2,756
14
Geothermal
751
899
-148
587
500
87
Hydro
2,440
2,346
94
2,124
2,101
23
Wind
33
33
33
20
13
Biomass
17
13
11,981
-242
10,824
10,498
326
TOTAL
11,739
Committed Projects in Luzon for 2013

869 MW between 2013-2015
Project Name
Location
GN Power (2x300
Mariveles Project)
Green Future Biomass
Mariveles, Bataan
CIP 2 Bunker Fired PP
Bacnotan, La Union
Pililia Wind
Pililia Rizal,
Payatas LFG
Quezon City
Isabela
Proponent
Fuel
Type
Coal
GN Power Mariveles Coal

Plant Ltd., Co.
Green Future Innovations Biomass
Inc.
CIP II Power Corporation
Oil
Altenergy Wind One
Corporation
Pangea Green Energy
Total Committed 2013
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
600.0
Jan. 2013
13.0
Jan. 2013
21.0
4Q 2013
Wind
68.0
Dec. 2013
Biomass
1.0
Dec. 2013
703.0

869 MW between 2013-2015
Project Name
Location
Maibarara Geothermal Sto. Tomas, Batangas

Project
Proponent
Maibarara Geothermal
Inc.
Fuel
Type
Geo
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
20.0
Oct. 2014
20.0
10

869 MW between 2013-2015
Project Name
Location
Puting Bato Coal
Calaca, Batangas
SJCI Power Biomass
San Jose, Nueva Ecija
Proponent
South Luzon Thermal

Energy Corporation
San Jose City I Power
Corporation
Total Committed - 2015
Fuel
Type
Coal
Biomass
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
135.0 Sept. 2015
11.0
Dec. 2015
146.0
11
Indicative Projects in Luzon for 2013

6,819.3 MW between 2013-2020
Project Name
Location
Proponent
Aero Derivative
Combined Cycle Power
Plant
Calamba, Laguna
Calamba Aero Power

Corporation
Pasuquin East Wind

Energy Project - Phase I
Pasuquin, Ilocos Norte
Energy Logics Philippines,

Inc.
2x100 MW Gas Turbine

Brgy. Ibabang Polo,
Energy World
Power Project / 2x50 MW Grande Island, Pagbilao, International, Ltd.
Steam Turbine Power
Quezon
Project
Burgos Wind Power
Project
Unisan Biogas Project
Phase I
Lucky PPH Biomass
Project
Nagsurot-Saoit, Burgos,
Ilocos Norte
Unisan, Quezon
Province
Isabela
Fuel
Type
Oil
Wind
48.0
June 2013
LNG
300.0
Dec. 2013
86.0
Dec. 2013
5.6
Dec. 2013
3.6
Dec. 2013
EDC Burgos Wind Power

Wind
Corp.
Unisan Biogen
Biogas
Corporation
Lucky PPH International Biomass
Total Indicative - 2013
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
150.0 June 2013
593.2
12

6,819.3 MW between 2013-2020
Project Name
Location
Proponent
SLPGC Coal-Fired Power

Plant (formerly Calaca
Expansion) - Phase I
Brgy. San Rafael, Calaca, South Luzon Power

Batangas
Generation Corporation
(formerly SEM-Calaca
Power Corp.)
Pasuquin East Wind

Energy Project - Phase II
Caparispisan and Balaoi
Wind Energy Project
Pasuquin, Ilocos Norte
Fuel
Type
Coal
Energy Logics Philippines, Wind

Inc.
Bgy. Caparispisan &
Northern Luzon UPC Asia Wind
Balaoi, Pagudpud, Ilocos Corp.
Norte
Batangas Mid-Merit Plant Batangas
FirstGen Corp.
Natural
Project
Gas
2x300 MW Coal-Fired
Sitio Naglatore, Cawag, Redondo Peninsula
Coal
Power Plant - Phase I
Subic
Energy, Inc.
17.5 MW Nueva Ecija
Brgy. Tambo-Tabuating, Green Power Nueva Ecija Biomass
Biomass Power Project
San Leonardo, Nueva
Philippines, Inc.
Ecija
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
300.0
2014
72.0
Feb. 2014
80.0
1Q 2014
300.0
3Q 2014
300.0
4Q 2014
17.5
Dec. 2014
1,069.5
13

6,819.3 MW between 2013-2020
Project Name
Mabitac Wind Farm
Project
2x300 MW Coal-Fired
Power Plant - Phase II
550 MW San Gabriel
Power Plant
Tanawon Geothermal
Project
Rangas Geothermal
Project
2x300 MW Mariveles
Expansion Project
Puting Bato Coal-Fired
Power Plant - Phase II
Location
Mabitac, Rizal
Proponent
Fuel
Type
Wind
Alternergy Sembrano
Wind Corporation
Sitio Naglatore, Cawag, Redondo Peninsula
Coal
Subic
Energy, Inc.
San Gabriel, Batangas
First Gas Power
Natural
City
Corporation
Gas
Bacman Geothermal
Energy Development
Geo
Field, Sorsogon
Corporation
Bacman Geothermal
Energy Development
Geo
Field, Sorsogon
Corporation
Mariveles, Bataan
GN Power Mariveles Coal
Coal
Plant Ltd., Co.
Brgy. Puting Bato, West South Luzon Thermal
Coal
Calaca, Batangas
Energy Corporation
(formerly TAOil)
Unisan Biogas Project Unisan, Quezon Province Unisan Biogen Corporation Biogas
Phase II
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
56.0
2015
300.0
2Q/2015
550.0
3Q 2015
40.0
Sept. 2015
40.0
Sept. 2015
600.0
4Q 2015
135.0
4Q 2015
5.6
Dec. 2015
1,726.6
14

6,819.3 MW between 2013-2020
Project Name
Location
Proponent
Fuel
Type
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
Cavinti Wind Farm Project
Cavinti, Laguna
Alternergy Cavinti Wind

Corporation
Wind
50.0
2016
2x20 MW FDC Camarines

CFB Coal Power Plant
Camarines Sur
FDC Utilities, Inc. (FDCUI)
Coal
40.0
1Q 2016
Quezon Power Expansion Mauban, Quezon

Project
2x300 Masinloc Expansion Zambales
(Unit 3)
Quezon Power Phils.
Coal
500.0
2Q 2016
AES Masinloc Power

Partners Co., Inc.
Coal
300.0
3Q 2016
2x300 Masinloc Expansion Zambales

(Unit 4)
AES Masinloc Power

Partners Co., Inc.
Coal
300.0
3Q 2016
1,190.0
15

6,819.3 MW between 2013-2020
Project Name
Location
Proponent
SLPGC Coal-Fired Power

Plant (formerly Calaca
Expansion) - Phase II
Brgy. San Rafael, Calaca,

Batangas
South Luzon Power

Generation Corporation
(formerly SEM-Calaca
Power Corp.)
Manito-Kayabon
Geothermal Project
Bacman Geothermal
Field, Sorsogon
Energy Development
Corporation
Total Indicative 2017
Fuel
Type
Coal
Geo
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
300.0
2017
40.0
Mar. 2017
340.0
16

6,819.3 MW between 2013-2020
Project Name
LNG-Fired Combined
Cycle Power Plant
Location
Atimonan, Quezon
Proponent
MERALCO
Fuel
Type
LNG
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
1,750.0
2018
1,750.0
17

6,819.3 MW between 2013-2020
Project Name
Kanan Hydro Power
Project
Location
Gen. Nakar, Quezon
Province
Proponent
Kanan Hydro Electric
Power Corp.
Fuel Capacity
M/Q/Year
Type
(MW)
Hydro 150.0 Dec. 2020
150.0
18
VISAYAS
2012-2030
19
Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook

2012-2030
4500
Critical Periods
4000

3500
3000
2500

2000
1500
Existing Capacity
Existing +Committed Capacity
Peak Demand at 4.45 + RM
Notes
a. Demand curve represents total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4%
regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement (RM).
utilities to DOE.
for 2012.
20
Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook

2012-2030
Critical Periods
At 4.45% and 5.28% Peak Demand
Growth Rate
2013 in all cases (on existing
capacity, on existing
capacity with committed
capacities, and on existing
with committed and
indicative capacities
Notes
utilities to DOE.
for 2012.
21
Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030

Critical Periods
4500
4000

3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
Existing Capacity
Existing +Committed Capacity
With Indicative
Peak Demand at 4.45 + RM

Notes
utilities to DOE.
for 2012.
22
Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030

Critical Periods
At 4.45% and 5.28% Peak Demand
Growth Rate
2013 in all cases (on existing
capacity, on existing capacity with
committed capacities, and on
existing with committed and
indicative capacities)
Notes
utilities to DOE.
for 2012.
23
Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook Data

Existing Capacity
With Indicative
GR Peak Demand
GR Peak Demand + RM
GR Peak Demand
GR Peak Demand + RM
Existing Capacity
With Indicative
GR Peak Demand
GR Peak Demand + RM
GR Peak Demand
GR Peak Demand + RM
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2,037
2,037
2,037
1,831
1,831
-
2,037
2,045
2,095
1,909
4.78%
4.26%
1,917
5.28%
4.70%
2,037
2,065
2,217
1,992
4.90%
4.39%
2,007
5.28%
4.73%
2,037
2,208
2,360
2,070
4.36%
3.93%
2,103
5.28%
4.75%
2,037
2,212
2,364
2,160
4.78%
4.31%
2,203
5.28%
4.78%
2,037
2,347
2,499
2,255
4.87%
4.41%
2,309
5.28%
4.80%
2,037
2,347
2,499
2,342
4.24%
3.86%
2,420
5.28%
4.82%
2,037
2,347
2,499
2,433
4.23%
3.87%
2,538
5.28%
4.84%
2,037
2,347
2,499
2,526
4.18%
3.83%
2,661
5.28%
4.86%
2,037
2,347
2,499
2,624
4.22%
3.88%
2,791
5.28%
4.88%
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2,037
2,347
2,499
2,727
4.25%
3.93%
2,928
5.28%
4.90%
2,037
2,347
2,499
2,836
4.29%
3.98%
3,072
5.28%
4.92%
2,037
2,347
2,499
2,950
4.33%
4.02%
3,223
5.28%
4.94%
2,037
2,347
2,499
3,070
4.36%
4.06%
3,383
5.28%
4.95%
2,037
2,347
2,499
3,196
4.39%
4.11%
3,551
5.28%
4.97%
2,037
2,347
2,499
3,328
4.43%
4.15%
3,728
5.28%
4.98%
2,037
2,347
2,499
3,468
4.46%
4.19%
3,914
5.28%
5.00%
2,037
2,347
2,499
3,614
4.49%
4.23%
4,110
5.28%
5.01%
2,037
2,347
2,499
3,769
4.52%
4.27%
4,317
5.28%
5.02%
Average
GR
4.45%
4.09%
5.28%
4.88%
24
Installed and Dependable Capacities

Visayas
Fuel
Type
Installed Capacity
(MW)
2012
2011
Difference
(MW)
Dependable Capacity
(MW)
2012
2011
Difference
(MW)
Coal
806
786
20
777
501
275
Oil Based
615
615
476
464
12
Geothermal
923
964
-40
745
751
-6
Hydro
13
13
13
13
Biomass
44
29
15
26
15
11
2,402
2,407
-5
1,745
292
TOTAL
2,037
25
Committed Projects in Visayas for 2013

310 MW between 2013-2017
Project Name
Villasiga HEP
Location
Sibalom, Antique
Proponent
Sunwest Water & Electric
Co., Inc.
Fuel
Type
Hydro
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
8.0
Dec. 2013
8.0
26

310 MW between 2013-2017
Project Name
Nasulo Geothermal
Location
Nasuji, Valencia,
Negros Oriental
Proponent
Energy Development
Corporation
Fuel
Type
Geo
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
20.0
Dec. 2014
20.0
27

310 MW between 2013-2017
Project Name
Location
Proponent
PALM Concepcion Coal

Phase 1
Concepcion, Iloilo
Palm Thermal
Consolidated Holdings
Corp.
Cantakoy HEP
Danao, Bohol
Cantakoy Hydroelectric
Power Project
Fuel
Type
Coal
Hydro
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
135.0
3Q 2015
8.0
4Q 2015
143.0
28

310 MW between 2013-2017
Project Name
Asian Energy Biomass
Location
Cebu
Proponent
Fuel
Type
Asian Energy System Corp.
Biomass
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
4.0
Dec. 2016
4.0
29

310 MW between 2013-2017
Project Name
PALM Concepcion Coal
Phase 2
Location
Concepcion, Iloilo
Proponent
Palm Thermal
Consolidated Holdings
Corp.
Fuel
Type
Coal
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
135.0
Sept. 2017
135.0
30
Indicative Projects in Visayas for 2013

433 MW between 2013-2019
Project Name
Nabas Wind Power
Project
Location
Bgy. Pawa, Nabas, Aklan
Proponent
Trans-Asia Oil and
Energy Development
Corporation
Fuel
Type
Wind
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
50.0
2013
50.0
31

433 MW between 2013-2019
Project Name
Location
Proponent
54 MW San Lorenzo
Wind Power Project
San Lorenzo, Guimaras

Island
San Carlos Bagasse-Fired

Power Generation
Project
2x17.5 MW Green Power
Panay - Phase I
San Carlos City, Negros

Occidental
Trans-Asia Oil and

Energy Development
Corporation
San Carlos BioPower
Inc.
Bgy. Cabalabaguan,
Mina, Iloilo
Asea One Aklan Biomass Banga, Aklan

Project
Fuel
Type
Wind
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
54.0
Jan. 2014
Biomass
18.0
June 2014
Green Power Panay

Philippines, Inc.
Biomass
17.5
Dec. 2014
Asea One Power

Corporation
Biomass
12.0
Dec. 2014
101.5
32

433 MW between 2013-2019
Project Name
Location
Proponent
Fuel
Type
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
PEDC Expansion Project

(1x82 MW Coal-Fired
Power Plant)
Brgy. Ingore, La Paz,

Iloilo
Panay Energy
Development
Corporation
Coal
82.0
2015
CEDC Expansion Project

(1x82 MW Coal-Fired
Power Plant)
Brgy. Daanlungsod,
Toledo City, Cebu
Cebu Energy
Development
Corporation (CEDC)
Coal
82.0
2015
1x20 MW FDC Danao CFB Danao City, Cebu

Coal Power Plant
FDC Utilities, Inc.

(FDCUI)
Coal
20.0
4Q 2015
2x17.5 MW Green Power Bgy. Cabalabaguan,

Panay - Phase II
Mina, Iloilo
Green Power Panay

Philippines, Inc.
Biomass
17.5
Dec. 2015
201.5
33

433 MW between 2013-2019
Project Name
Location
Proponent
Dauin Geothermal Project Dauin, Negros Oriental Energy Development

Corporation
Fuel
Type
Geo
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
40.0
2017
40.0
34

433 MW between 2013-2019
Project Name
Southern Leyte
Geothermal Project
(formerly Cabalian
Geothermal Project)
Location
Southern Leyte
Proponent
Energy Development
Corporation
Fuel
Type
Geo
Capacity
M/Q/Year
(MW)
40.0
2019
40.0
35
LUZON-VISAYAS
2012-2030
36
Luzon-Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030

29000
27000

25000
23000
21000
19000
17000
15000
13000
11000
9000
Existing
Existing + Committed Luz-Vis
With Indicative
At 5.28% Peak Demand Growth

Rate
Actual transfer may be constrained
by Luzon-Visayas import-export lines
Notes
b. 4.17% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand of Luzon and Visayas
submitted to DOE by the utilities
for 2012.
37
Luzon-Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030

Critical Periods
2013 on both existing capacity
and committed apacities
2013 on both existing capacity
and committed capacities
Actual transfer may be constrained
by Luzon-Visayas import-export lines
Notes
b. 4.17% peak demand growth rate resulted from aggregated demand of Luzon and Visayas
submitted to DOE by the utilities
for 2012.
38
Luzon-Visayas Supply-Demand Outlook Data

Existing Capacity
With Indicative
GR Peak Demand
GR Peak Demand + RM
GR Peak Demand
GR Peak Demand + RM
Existing Capacity
With Indicative
GR Peak Demand
GR Peak Demand + RM
GR Peak Demand
GR Peak Demand + RM
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
12,781
12,786
12,786
11,412
11,412
-
12,781
13,632
14,275
11,808
3.99%
3.47%
11,936
5.28%
4.59%
12,781
13,677
15,491
12,204
3.83%
3.35%
12,487
5.28%
4.62%
12,781
13,971
15,785
12,612
3.81%
3.35%
13,068
5.28%
4.65%
12,781
13,975
15,789
13,040
3.85%
3.39%
13,679
5.28%
4.68%
12,781
14,110
15,924
13,499
3.98%
3.52%
14,322
5.28%
4.70%
12,781
14,110
15,924
13,963
3.86%
3.44%
14,999
5.28%
4.73%
12,781
14,110
15,924
14,443
3.85%
3.44%
15,712
5.28%
4.75%
12,781
14,110
15,924
14,941
3.84%
3.44%
16,463
5.28%
4.78%
12,781
14,110
15,924
15,530
4.38%
3.95%
17,254
5.28%
4.80%
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
12,781
14,110
15,924
16,146
4.39%
3.97%
18,086
5.28%
4.82%
12,781
14,110
15,924
16,791
4.40%
3.99%
18,962
5.28%
4.84%
12,781
14,110
15,924
17,464
4.40%
4.01%
19,884
5.28%
4.86%
12,781
14,110
15,924
18,168
4.41%
4.03%
20,855
5.28%
4.88%
12,781
14,110
15,924
18,904
4.41%
4.05%
21,877
5.28%
4.90%
12,781
14,110
15,924
19,674
4.42%
4.07%
22,953
5.28%
4.92%
12,781
14,110
15,924
20,478
4.43%
4.09%
24,087
5.28%
4.94%
12,781
14,110
15,924
21,320
4.43%
4.11%
25,279
5.28%
4.95%
12,781
14,110
15,924
22,199
4.44%
4.12%
26,535
5.28%
4.97%
Average
GR
4.17%
3.77%
5.28%
4.80%
39
2013 Luzon and Visayas

Grid Monthly Operating Program
40
2013 Luzon Grid Monthly Operating Program

With GN POWER Unit 1 (300 MW) in May
Available Capacity
Oil Thermal
Coal
Diesel
Natural gas/Combined Cycle
Geothermal
Hydro
Import from Visayas
Demand Forecast
System Gross Reserve
Req'd. Regulating Reserve
Req'd. Contingency Reserve
Req'd. Dispatchable Reserve
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
8512 8094 8652 8291 9168
0
0
0
150
260
3022 2961 3815 3012 3967
338
338
348
357
353
3007 2778 2757 2729 3158
396
373
375
412
499
1650 1450 1300 1528
781
99
194
57
103
150
7079 7335 7720 8007 8201
1433
759
932
284
967
283
293
309
320
328
647
647
647
647
647
647
647
647
647
647
Jun
9276
0
4267
353
3158
499
849
150
8163
1113
327
647
647
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
9791 9460 9379 9541 8931 9588
350
350
0
0
610
0
4032 3620 3897 3897 3897 3979
353
353
353
353
353
353
3158 3248 2992 2992 1792 2992
499
499
488
488
438
453
1299 1240 1499 1661 1841 1661
100
150
150
150
0
150
8012 7880 7951 7840 7880 7840
1779 1580 1428 1701 1051 1748
320
315
318
314
315
314
647
647
647
647
647
647
647
647
647
647
647
647
Note: Actual Supply-Demand 1 Jan-23 Apr 2013

Calaca 1 &
Masinloc 1 PO
Reqd. Dispatchable Reserve
Sta Rita 1 PO
Low HEP Cap
Pagbilao 1 &
Sta Rita 4 PO
Sta Rita 1 FO
Sual 2 PO
Malaya 2 PO
Reqd. Contingency Reserve
Reqd. Regulating Reserve
41
2013 Visayas Grid Monthly Operating Program

Jan
Available Capacity
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1783
1698
1868
1766
1811
1717
1729
1737
1726
1728
1793
1833
Coal/Thermal
691
614
747
616
697
635
656
593
614
606
593
635
Diesel
355
373
381
357
375
383
383
377
377
387
383
381
Geothermal
710
682
719
719
720
623
664
741
709
709
741
741
27
29
21
24
19
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
50
50
50
50
1462
1445
1522
1534
1591
1518
1512
1551
1526
1560
1594
1643
System Gross Reserve
321
253
346
232
220
199
217
186
200
168
199
190
Req'd. Regulating Reserve

Req'd. Regulating
Contingency
Req'd. Regulating
Dispatchable
58
58
61
61
64
61
60
62
61
62
64
66
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Hydroelectric/Other RE
Import from Luzon
Demand Forecast
Note: Actual Supply-Demand 1 Jan-23 Apr 2013
MAHA U1 & U2 OF LEYTE GEO

PGPP U1 UNIT S/D
CTPP U2 S/D
Reqd. Dispatchable Reserve
KSPC U2 S/D
CTPP U2 S/D
Reqd. Contingency Reserve
Reqd. Regulating Reserve
42
Luzon Grid Daily Operating Program

May 2013
43
Source: NGCP
Visayas Grid Daily Operating Program

May 2013
44
Source: NGCP
Challenges for Investments in Power Generation

Information asymmetry
Uncertainties in the Demand Forecasts
Bureaucratic processes in securing national
and local clearances/permits/licenses
Difficulty in contracting with offtakers
Right-of-Way Problems
Climate Change
45
Electric Power
Supply-Demand Outlook for 2012-2030
Sec. Carlos Jericho L. Petilla
Department of Energy
Visayas Power Summit
Waterfront Hotel
26 April 2013

Visayas Power Summit - April 26

Încărcat de

Informații document

Drepturi de autor

Formate disponibile

Partajați acest document

Partajați sau inserați document

Opțiuni de partajare

Vi se pare util acest document?

Este necorespunzător acest conținut?

Drepturi de autor:

Formate disponibile

Visayas Power Summit - April 26

Încărcat de

Drepturi de autor:

Formate disponibile

Electric Power

Supply-Demand Outlook for 2012-2030

Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook

At 4.12% Peak Demand Growth Rate

At 5.28% Peak Demand Growth Rate

Peak Demand @ 4.12 GR + RM

Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM

Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook

Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030

At 4.12% Peak Demand Growth Rate

Peak Demand @ 4.12 GR + RM

Peak Demand @ 5.28 GR+ RM

At 5.28% Peak Demand Growth Rate

Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook 2012-2030

Luzon Supply-Demand Outlook Data

Installed and Dependable Capacities

Committed Projects in Luzon for 2013

CIP 2 Bunker Fired PP

GN Power Mariveles Coal

Total Committed 2013

Committed Projects in Luzon for 2014

Maibarara Geothermal Sto. Tomas, Batangas

Total Committed 2014

Committed Projects in Luzon for 2015

Puting Bato Coal

SJCI Power Biomass

San Jose, Nueva Ecija

South Luzon Thermal

Total Committed - 2015

Indicative Projects in Luzon for 2013

Calamba Aero Power

Pasuquin East Wind

Pasuquin, Ilocos Norte

Energy Logics Philippines,

2x100 MW Gas Turbine

EDC Burgos Wind Power

Total Indicative - 2013

Indicative Projects in Luzon for 2014

SLPGC Coal-Fired Power

Brgy. San Rafael, Calaca, South Luzon Power

Pasuquin East Wind

Pasuquin, Ilocos Norte

Energy Logics Philippines, Wind

Total Indicative - 2014

Indicative Projects in Luzon for 2015

Total Indicative - 2015

Indicative Projects in Luzon for 2016

Cavinti Wind Farm Project

Alternergy Cavinti Wind

2x20 MW FDC Camarines

FDC Utilities, Inc. (FDCUI)

Quezon Power Expansion Mauban, Quezon

Quezon Power Phils.

AES Masinloc Power

2x300 Masinloc Expansion Zambales

AES Masinloc Power

Total Indicative - 2016

Indicative Projects in Luzon for 2017

SLPGC Coal-Fired Power

Brgy. San Rafael, Calaca,

South Luzon Power

Total Indicative 2017

Indicative Projects in Luzon for 2018

Total Indicative 2018