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Poisson Regression
In Poisson regression, the response variable is a count (e.g. number of
cases of a disease in a given period of time) and the Poisson distribution
provides the basis of likelihood-based inference.
Often the counts may be expressed as rates. That is, the count or
absolute number of events is often not satisfactory because any
comparison will depend on the sizes of the groups (or the
`time at risk') that generated the observations.
Like a proportion or probability, a rate provides a basis for direct
comparison.
In either case, Poisson regression relates the expected counts or rates to a
set of covariates.
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log linear
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Person
Years
5268.2
2542.0
1140.7
614.6
4451.1
2243.5
1153.6
925.0
1366.8
497.0
238.1
146.3
1251.9
640.0
374.5
338.2
Smoking
0
10
20
30
0
10
20
30
0
10
20
30
0
10
20
30
Blood
Pressure
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Behavior
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
CHD
20
16
13
3
41
24
27
17
8
9
3
7
29
21
7
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For these data, the ML estimate of 1 is 0.0318. That is, the rate of CHD
increases by a factor of exp(0.0318) = 1.032 for every cigarette smoked.
Alternatively, the rate of CHD in smokers of one pack per day (20 cigs) is
estimated to be (1.032)20 = 1.88 times higher than the rate of CHD in
non-smokers.
We can include the additional risk factors in the following model:
ln ( /t) = 0 + 1 Smoke + 2 Type + 3BP
Effect
Intercept
Smoke
Type
BP
Estimate
Std. Error
-5.420
0.027
0.753
0.753
0.130
0.006
0.136
0.129
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Now, the adjusted rate of CHD (controlling for blood pressure and behavior
type) increases by a factor of exp(0.027) = 1.028 for every cigarette smoked.
Thus, the adjusted rate of CHD in smokers of one pack per day (20 cigs) is
estimated to be (1.027)20 = 1.704 times higher than the rate of CHD in nonsmokers.
Finally, note that when a Poisson regression model is applied to data
consisting of very small rates (say, /t << 0.01), the rate is approximately
equal to the corresponding probability, p, of an event and
ln (rate) ln (p) ln [p/(1 - p)]
Therefore, logistic regression and Poisson regression analyses produce
similar regression coefficients when the event being studied is rare.
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Results
A total of 320 motor vehicle crashes were reported, including 133 that were
consequential; 131 of the 320 crashes occurred on the commute from
work.
Every extended shift (> 24 hrs) scheduled per month increased the
monthly rate of any motor vehicle crash by 9.1 percent (95 percent
confidence interval, 3.4 to 14.7 percent) and increased the monthly rate of
a crash on the commute from work by 16.2 percent (95 percent confidence
interval, 7.8 to 24.7 percent).
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