Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
EDUC - 4026
EDUC - 4026
1. Teora, diseos
y Causalidad
2. Inferencia
Estadstica Bsica
3. Anlisis bivariados
4. Anlisis de
Varianza
Fundamentos de
Regresin Linear
5. Regresin
lineal (predictor
continuo)
6. Regresin
lineal (predictor
categrico)
7. Regresin
Mltiple
8. Moderacin en
Modelos de
Regresin
Interpretacin y
comunicacin
9. Taxonoma de
Modelos
10. Evaluacin de
Supuestos de la
Regresin
Generalizacin
de principios
13. Mediacin
completa (2SLS)
15. Probabilidades
Marginales
EDUC - 4026
Mediacin
completa
(2SLS)
Inferencia
Causal
Ecuaciones
Estructurales
Continua
Anlisis de Regresin
Mltiple
Binaria
Post- Estimacin
Efectos
marginales y
representacin
grafica
Y 0 1 X 1 2 X 2
Caractersticas de los
Predictores y su interpretacin
Binarios y Categricos
Evaluacin de
Supuestos de la
Regresin
Continuos
Anlisis
Multinivel
Anlisis
longitudinal
14/10/2014
EDUC - 4026
Tabla 1. EDUC-4026: Parmetros estimados, valores p aproximados, y estadsticas de ajuste del modelo para una taxonoma de
modelos de regresin evaluando la relacin entre Ansiedad frente a las Matemticas (ANXMAT1) y familiaridad reportada con el
contenido (FAMCON1) con el desempeo alcanzado en la prueba de PISA 2012 componente de Matemticas por una poblacin
de adolescentes en 9 diferentes pases de las Amricas. n=2972
M1
Intercepto
ANXMAT1
FAMCON1
ANXMAT1byFAMCON1
FEMALE
ANXMAT1byFEMALE
FAMCON1byFEMALE
501.86***
-33.20***
M2
Modelos de regresin
M4
M5
M3
M6
M7
M8
WEALTH1
-9.01
-4.30
20.57**
14.57*
-23.08*** -15.00*
7.48
14.50*
10.62*
18.64***
-44.34*** -27.87***
10.19
9.54
47.07*** 27.09***
BRAZIL
CHILE
COLOMBIA
COSTA RICA
MEXICO
PERU
URUGUAY
USA
R2
0.134
0.1873
0.2552
0.2588
0.2676
0.2679
0.3252
0.3697
EDUC - 4026
EDUC - 4026
Modelo 1:
+
SS
df
MS
Model
Residual
2559255.93
16489395.3
1
2970
2559255.93
5551.98495
Total
19048651.2
2971
6411.52852
MATH
Coef.
ANXMAT1
_cons
-33.20729
501.8676
Std. Err.
1.546681
4.431719
t
-21.47
113.24
Number of obs
F( 1, 2970)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
=
=
=
=
=
=
2972
460.96
0.0000
0.1344
0.1341
74.512
-30.17462
510.5572
14/10/2014
EDUC - 4026
MATH
Coef.
ANXMAT1
_cons
-33.20729
501.8676
Std. Err.
1.546681
4.431719
t
-21.47
113.24
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
= 501.87 + (33.21
Intercepto estimado (
-30.17462
510.5572
) of 501.87:
) of (-33.21):
EDUC - 4026
= 501.87 + (33.21
= 501.87 + (33.21 0)
= 501.87
1)
EDUC - 4026
= 501.87 + (33.21
= 501.87 + (33.21 1.5)
= 501.87 + (49.815)
= 452.055
1)
14/10/2014
EDUC - 4026
=
= 501.87 + (33.21 3)
= 501.87 + 99.63
= 402.24
[
|
= . ]
= 501.87 + (33.21 4.5)
= 501.87 + 149.445
= 352.425
EDUC - 4026
501.87
402.24
352.42
2
ANXMAT1
4.5
EDUC - 4026
550
501.87
500
Estimado de MATH
ANXMAT1M ATH
0
501.87
0.5 485.265
1
468.66
1.5 452.055
2
435.45
2.5 418.845
3
402.24
3.5 385.635
4
369.03
4.5 352.425
5
335.82
468.66
450
435.45
402.24
400
369.03
350
300
335.82
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
ANXMAT1
14/10/2014
EDUC - 4026
MATH
Coef.
ANXMAT1
_cons
-33.20729
501.8676
Std. Err.
1.546681
4.431719
t
-21.47
113.24
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
-36.23997
493.1781
-30.17462
510.5572
= 501.87 + (33.21
Intercepto estimado (
) of 501.87:
) of (-33.21):
EDUC - 4026
Source
SS
Modelo 2:
df
MS
Model
Residual
3566932.91
15481718.3
1
2970
3566932.91
5212.69977
Total
19048651.2
2971
6411.52852
MATH
Coef.
FAMCON1
_cons
37.72102
239.8906
Std. Err.
1.442007
6.68729
t
26.16
35.87
Number of obs
F( 1, 2970)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
=
=
=
=
=
2972
684.28
0.0000
0.1873
0.1870
72.199
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
34.89359
226.7784
40.54846
253.0028
EDUC - 4026
14/10/2014
EDUC - 4026
FAMCON1
Andres Molano CIFE - 2014
EDUC - 4026
EDUC - 4026
Source
SS
Modelo 3:
df
MS
Model
Residual
4860445.2
14188206
2
2969
2430222.6
4778.78277
Total
19048651.2
2971
6411.52852
MATH
Coef.
ANXMAT1
FAMCON1
_cons
-24.4951
31.43616
335.224
Std. Err.
1.488855
1.432557
8.635619
t
-16.45
21.94
38.82
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
0.000
)+
Number of obs
F( 2, 2969)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
=
=
=
=
=
2972
508.54
0.0000
0.2552
0.2547
69.129
-21.5758
34.24506
352.1564
14/10/2014
EDUC - 4026
Modelo 3:
= 335.22 + 24.49
+ (31.43
EDUC - 4026
500
450
Estimado de MATH
400
350
300
261.75
237.26
250
212.77
200
150
0.5
1.5
2.5
3
ANXMAT1
3.5
4.5
EDUC - 4026
SS
df
MS
Model
Residual
4860445.2
14188206
2
2969
2430222.6
4778.78277
Total
19048651.2
2971
6411.52852
MATH
Coef.
ANXMAT1
FAMCON1
_cons
-24.4951
31.43616
335.224
Std. Err.
1.488855
1.432557
8.635619
t
-16.45
21.94
38.82
Number of obs
F( 2, 2969)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
0.000
=
=
=
=
=
=
2972
508.54
0.0000
0.2552
0.2547
69.129
-21.5758
34.24506
352.1564
14/10/2014
EDUC - 4026
Modelo 3:
= 335.22 + 24.49
+ (31.43
EDUC - 4026
Estimado de MATH
650
550
618.09
523.8
450
429.51
350
335.22
250
150
366.65
EDUC - 4026
MATH
Coef.
ANXMAT1
FAMCON1
_cons
-24.4951
31.43616
335.224
Std. Err.
1.488855
1.432557
8.635619
t
-16.45
21.94
38.82
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
0.000
-21.5758
34.24506
352.1564
De acuerdo a nuestro modelo, estimamos que la media de MATH es 335.22, cuando todos los
predictores en el modelo son igual a cero. Este promedio, es estadsticamente diferente de 0, en la
poblacin (p <.001)
Nuestros resultados sugieren que, en promedio en la poblacin, una unidad de diferencia en
ANXMAT1 esta asociada con -24.49 puntos de diferencia en los puntajes de MATH, controlando
por el efecto de FAMCON1. Esta asociacin, es estadsticamente significativa, a un nivel de
=0.05.
De igual manera, controlando por los efectos de ANXMAT, nuestros resultados sugieren que, en
promedio en la poblacin, una unidad de diferencia en FAMCON1 esta asociada con 31.43 puntos
de diferencia en MATH. Esta asociacin, es estadsticamente diferente a cero ( t = -21.94, p <.001)
14/10/2014
EDUC - 4026
= 4.54
= 4.54
= 4.54
= 4.54
= 4.54
= 477.91
= 453.66
= 428.93
= 404.44
= 355.46
24.49
EDUC - 4026
EDUC - 4026
14/10/2014
EDUC - 4026
Modelo 4:
SS
df
MS
Model
Residual
4929403.56
14119247.7
3
2968
1643134.52
4757.15892
Total
19048651.2
2971
6411.52852
MATH
Coef.
ANXMAT1
FAMCON1
ANXbyFAM
_cons
-.7021004
44.57486
-5.051464
272.1423
Std. Err.
6.4234
3.735194
1.326776
18.6749
-0.11
11.93
-3.81
14.57
)+
Number of obs
F( 3, 2968)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
P>|t|
0.913
0.000
0.000
0.000
=
=
=
=
=
=
2972
345.40
0.0000
0.2588
0.2580
68.972
11.89267
51.89869
-2.44997
308.7594
EDUC - 4026
Modelo Estimado:
= 272.14 + 0.70
44.57
(5.05
)+
EDUC - 4026
10
14/10/2014
EDUC - 4026
=0
=1
=2
=3
=5
= 4.54
= 4.54
= 4.54
= 4.54
= 4.54
=0
=1
=2
=3
=5
=3
=3
=3
=3
=3
=0
=1
=2
=3
=5
=6
=6
=6
=6
=6
= 474.49
= 450.86
= 427.23
= 403.60
= 356.34
= 405.85
= 390.00
= 374.15
= 358.29
= 326.59
= 539.56
= 508.56
= 477.56
= 446.55
= 384.55
EDUC - 4026
600
550
500
539.56
477.56
450.86
446.55
23.63
427.23
415.55
403.60
405.85
15.85
350
300
508.56
474.49
450
400
31.00
0.5
384.55
379.97
390.00
374.15
1.5
FAMCON==4.54
356.34
358.29
342.44
2.5
3
ANXMAT1
FAMCON==3
3.5
326.59
4.5
FAMCON==6
EDUC - 4026
FINALMENTE..
MUCHOS MAS
PREDICTORES EN EL
MODELO
Andres Molano CIFE - 2014
11
14/10/2014
EDUC - 4026
Modelo 8:
=
+ (
(
) + (
)+ (
)+ (
)
)+
)+
. regress MATH ANXMAT1 FAMCON1 ANXbyFAM FEMALE WEALTH1 CTR_2 CTR_3 CTR_4 CTR_5 CTR_6 CTR_7 CTR_8 CTR_9 if filter1==1
Source
SS
df
MS
Model
Residual
7042712.46
12005938.8
13
2958
541747.112
4058.80283
Total
19048651.2
2971
6411.52852
MATH
Coef.
ANXMAT1
FAMCON1
ANXbyFAM
FEMALE
WEALTH1
CTR_2
CTR_3
CTR_4
CTR_5
CTR_6
CTR_7
CTR_8
CTR_9
_cons
-3.112262
37.51754
-3.926172
13.14229
14.5561
-4.307751
14.57559
-15.00301
14.50431
18.64355
-27.87285
9.540111
27.09224
218.4822
Std. Err.
5.956074
3.478024
1.230877
2.378894
1.006792
5.450417
6.451781
6.143896
7.133226
5.165947
6.834641
6.997849
7.251793
18.25928
t
-0.52
10.79
-3.19
5.52
14.46
-0.79
2.26
-2.44
2.03
3.61
-4.08
1.36
3.74
11.97
Number of obs
F( 13, 2958)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
P>|t|
0.601
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.429
0.024
0.015
0.042
0.000
0.000
0.173
0.000
0.000
=
=
=
=
=
=
2972
133.47
0.0000
0.3697
0.3670
63.709
8.566208
44.33713
-1.512709
17.80674
16.53018
6.379242
27.22603
-2.956264
28.4909
28.77276
-14.47172
23.26126
41.31131
254.2844
EDUC - 4026
Grafico de Ejemplo para valores estimados a partir de
modelo de regresion multiple
700
650
Valores Predichos en Y
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
0.5
FAMCON|0
1.5
2
2.5
3
Variable Independiente
FAMCON|3
FAMCON|6
3.5
4.5
FAMCON|9
12