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SOR201
1.
110SOR201(2002)
Solutions to Examples 1
2.
(i)
P(
n
S
Ai ) = 1 P
i=1
=1P
Ai
i=1
n
T
Ai
n
T
Ai
Ai
n
S
i=1
P(
n
T
i=1
Ai ) = 1 P
=1P
i=1
n
S
i=1
[complementarity rule]
.
page 2
110SOR201(2002)
m
X
P(Ai ).
(2)
i=1
Then
P([A1 ... Am ] Am+1 ) 6 P(A1 ... Am ) + P(Am+1 )
m
X
P(Ai ) + P(Am+1 )
6
=
i=1
m+1
X
[using (1)]
[using (2)]
P(Ai ),
i=1
i.e. the result holds for n = m + 1. So by induction it holds for all n > 2.
[Note: this result concerns one side of the Bonferroni inequality ((1.17a) in
lecture notes): for the other side, see Qn. 6 below.]
(b) We have that
P(
n
T
Ai ) = 1 P(
i=1
n
S
Ai )
P(Ai )
i=1
> 1
n
X
i=1
= 1
=
n
X
n
X
{1 P(Ai )}
[complementarity]
i=1
P(Ai ) (n 1).
i=1
3.
(i) (a) List total sample space and count favourable outcomes
Outcome = (a, b, c), where a is the floor at which A gets out, etc.
A
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
B
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
3
3
C
1
2
3
1
2
3*
1
2*
3
A
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
B
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
3
3
C
1
2
3*
1
2
3
1*
2
3
A
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
B
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
2
2
C
1
2*
3
1*
2
3
1
2
2
page 3
110SOR201(2002)
loge p =
n1
X
where a = 1/365.
loge (1 ra).
r=1
30 29
= 1.1918,
730
so p 0.3037.
(The exact value is p = 0.294. )
20
4.
(a)
P(Ai ) =
2
2
18
2
20
4
Q
Q
Pair i
2
43
3
=
= .
20 19
95
18 others
2
Q
Q
4
By symmetry this result holds for i = 1, ..., 10.
20
For i 6= j :
P(Ai Aj ) =
2
2
2
2
20
4
16
0
1
=
.
4845
Q
Q
Q
Q
4
Again by symmetry this result holds for i, j = 1, ..., 10; i 6= j.
Also P(Ai Aj Ak ) = 0, i 6= j 6= k;
P(Ai Aj Ak Al ) = 0; i 6= j 6= k 6= l etc.
Then
P(at least one pair) = P(A1 A2 A10 )
10
X
X
P(Ai )
P(Ai Aj )
=
16i<j610
i=1
3
= 10
95
10
2
1
99
=
0.31.
4845
323
/continued overleaf
page 4
110SOR201(2002)
Now
P(A1 A2 A3 ) =
3
X
P(Ai )
P(Ai Aj ) + P(A1 A2 A3 ),
16i<j63
i=1
where
6
4
,
P(Ai ) =
5
444444
555555
i 6= j
6
6 6
4
3
2
13
+3
.
5
5
5
6. The result is true (as an equality) for n = 2 (by the addition law).
Assume that it is true for n = m(> 2), i.e. that
P(A1 Am ) >
m
X
i=1
P(Ai )
P(Ai Aj ).
()
16i<j6m
Then
P([A1 Am ] Am+1 ) = P(A1 Am ) + P(Am+1 ) P([A1 Am ] Am+1 ).
/continued overleaf
page 5
110SOR201(2002)
The first term is developed using (*); we can write the third term as P( (Ai Am+1 ))
i=1
and then use the result in Qn. 2(ii)(a) above. Finally we obtain
P(A1 Am+1 ) >
=
m
X
i=1
m+1
X
P(Ai )
P(Ai Aj ) + P(Am+1 )
16i<j6m
P(Ai )
m
X
P(Ai Am+1 )
i=1
P(Ai Aj ),
16i<j6m+1
i=1
i.e. the result is true for n = m + 1. So by induction it is true for all n > 2.
7. Listing the outcomes in which no cup is placed on a saucer of the same colour:
Saucer:
Y Y
G G
Cup:
B B G G Y Y
G G Y Y B B
B G Y G B Y
B G Y G Y B
B G G Y B Y
B G G Y Y B
G B Y G B Y
G B Y G Y B
G B G Y B Y
G B G Y Y B
There are 10 favourable outcomes altogether.
Total number of arrangements of cups on saucers is
6!
= 90.
2!2!2!
1
10
= .
90
9
(Solution of this problem by means of the generalized addition law is difficult.)
8. First consider matches on a particular set of k cards. The probability that there are no
matches on any of the other (n k) cards is
11+
1
1
(1)nk
++
2! 3!
(n k)!
()
(from result in Lectures applied to (n k) cards.) Now there are (n k)! ways of
arranging the (n k) cards, so the number
of arrangements which yield no matches
n
is () (n k)!. But also there are k possible selections of the k matching cards.
So the number of arrangements of all n cards in which there are exactly k matches is
n
(n k)! (). The required probability is then obtained by dividing this by n!, the
k
total number of arrangements, giving
1
(1)nk
1
11+ ++
/k!
2! 3!
(n k)!
For large n this is approximately e1 /k!. The values
e1 /k! ,
k = 0, 1, ...
page 6
110SOR201(2002)
P(Ai Aj )
16i<j6n
n+1
i=1
P(A1 An ).
P(Ai Aj ) =
and so on.
n2
n
r
i 6= j
Finally P(A1 An ) = 0.
So required probability is
r
r
r
r
n2
n3
1
n
n
n
n1
n
+
+ (1)
.
n
2
3
n1
n
n
n
n
10. Let Ai : couple i seated together.
1 P(A1 An ) = 1
n
X
P(Ai )+
i=1
++
P(Ai1 Ai2 )
16i1 <i2 6n
(1)n P(A1 A2
An ).
There are (2n)! equally likely seatings. Consider a typical term P(Ai1 Aik ) in the
k th summation. Regard as k entities the k couples who are are seated together. There are
(2n 2k) other people, i.e. (2n k) entities in all. Number of (linear) arrangements
is (2n k)! But also each couple can be seated in 2 ways. So the total number of
seatings with k specified couples together is 2k (2n k)! So
P(Ai1 Aik ) =
2k (2n k)!
(2n)!
48
16
3
2
1
12
42 64
+
+
=11+
+
= .
8
87 676 8765
7 21 105
35