SBI 3013

INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY IN BIOLOGY

ASSIGNMENT 3:
H1N1 FLU OUTBREAK (STELLA).
LECTURE GROUP: A
LECTURERS NAME: MR. AZMI BIN IBRAHIM

NAME

MATRIC NO.

MAHIRAH BINTI ZAINAL ABIDIN

D20141066919

MERINY JOREEN ANAK MATIAS

D20141066915

TITLE: MINIMIZING THE SPREAD OF H1N1 VIRUS IN SCHOOL

PROBLEM STATEMENT
H1N1, which is also known as swine flu, is the fast-spreading influenza virus that caused illness.
Schools also infected by this disease. In order to decrease the number of sick students in school,
suggest on the most effective way to minimize the spreading of H1N1 virus.

OBJECTIVES
1. To enhance students understanding on the simulation.
2. To ensure students can predict the outcomes at the end of learning and teaching process
based on the simulation.

INTRODUCTION
H1N1 is a flu virus. When it was first detected in 2009, it was called swine flu because
the virus was similar to those found in pigs. The H1N1 virus is currently a seasonal flu virus
found in humans. Although it also circulates in pigs, anyone cannot get it by eating properly
handled and cooked pork or pork products. It can cause mild to severe illness, and at times can
lead to death. The flu is different from a cold. The flu usually comes on suddenly. The H1N1 flu
virus spreads between people in the same way that seasonal flu viruses spread. The best way to
prevent the H1N1 flu is to get the seasonal flu vaccine. Everyday preventive actions to stop the
spread of germs also must be taken. While sick, limit contact with others as much as possible to
keep from infecting them. Others than that, if someone are sick with flu-like illness, they should
stay home for at least 24 hours because the fever should be gone for 24 hours without the use of
a fever-reducing medicine. Parents must very aware of how fast the virus is spreading. Schools
are the perfect environment for a virus to spread. To help understand why, STELLA model
introduces the H1N1 virus.
The STELLA model is based on the SEIR compartmental model that epidemiologists use
to model the progress of an epidemic. SEIR models divide the population into compartments:
Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered.

These compartments translate nicely into

stocks within the STELLA model where we can observe the dynamics of the spreading virus. We
explore some strategies that schools are pursuing to limit the virus spread. We wanted to know
if the stay at home (when students are sick) policy would be effective in the case where
vaccines are not available quickly enough.
This project is done by dynamic simulation. Dynamic simulation is the use of a computer
program to model the time varying behavior of a system. This simulator can be used as an
effective means for teaching or demonstrating concepts to students. This is particularly true of
simulators that make intelligent use of computer graphics and animation. Such simulators
dynamically show the behaviour and relationship of all the simulated system's components,
thereby providing the user with a meaningful understanding of the system's nature. Consider
again, by showing the model, the student can actually see what is happening within the
experiment. Such a simulator should also permit students to speed up, slow down, stop or even
reverse a simulation as a means of aiding understanding.

VARIABLES
Manipulated: Percentage of vaccinated students, average of days infected students stay home
Responding: Number of sick students
Constant:

Percentage of effectiveness of vaccine

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

The result above shows the number of sick students in the school within the range of 80
days at school. Within a population of 1000 students in a high school, all of them are vaccinated
to prevent the spreading of H1N1 virus in school. However, some of the students are infected by
this influenza virus before they get vaccinated. Despite of having infected, those students are not
staying at home to get recovered. Those students still come to school instead of get quarantine at
home.
By referring to the graph, the numbers of sick students are increased gradually from the
first day until day 40. Then, the number of sick students are maintain from the next day until day
80, approximately 30 out of 1000 students are infected and get ill because of this virus. Even
though all of the students are vaccinated, but still some of them get infected after vaccinating.

The blue line in the graph show the students were fully vaccinated and still at school. As
the day increase, the sick students also increase. Vaccine was given to every sick students with
80% effectiveness. The effect of vaccine can be seen starting at day 40 in which the graph only
have a little increase, 30 students and above. This is because the 100% vaccinated student show
impact where the virus spreading is very slow.
However, when the infected student stay at home for 4 days, the total sick student
decreased from the first one without staying at home. When the infected students are totally
vaccinated and stay at home, the amount of sick student is no more increase starting from day 20;
showing there are no more virus spreading occurs. The number of sick student stay at 15 students
until day 60.

When refer to the graph simulator, none of the students got vaccinated. Instead of getting
vaccine, those infected students get quarantine at home for average of 7 days. It can be seen that
the number of sick students in a population of 1000 students in a high school increased rapidly
within the range from the first until day 40 of observation. Approximately about 90 out of 1000
students are get infected and fell ill because of the fast-spreading influenza virus. The numbers of
sick students maintain after day 40 until the last day of observation, which is approximately 90
students.

The blue line show the infected students is totally stay at home for all 7 days. No one of
the students are vaccinated. More students were infected as the days increase. So, the preventive
actions of staying at home to stop the spread of germs show impact at day 40 where no more
increasing in number of sick student and only stay at about 80 students.
When the students staying at home being vaccinated with only 50% of them, the graph is
slightly decrease. At day 20, just about 23 students were infected at stay constant until day 80.
This means no infection occurs towards the students after the step done.

Graph above shows there are two lines with different colours, which indicates different
variables or different ways to limit the outbreak of the H1N1 virus in school. The blue line
indicates that all of students in a high school are vaccinated but none of the infected students get
quarantine at home. It resulting in the increased numbers of sick students within 40 days, and the
numbers have no change for the next 40 days.
The red line indicates that all of students in a high school are vaccinated and those who
are infected are staying at home for average of seven days to be quarantine. The number of sick
students are approximately 10 students and the period of infection in school is within 10 days
only.
The difference between these two lines is the number of average days of infected students
stay home within the time of observation. These two lines show a great difference in the number
of sick students in school.

As experiment with the simulation done, the following were considered:

1) How does varying % vaccinated effect the number of sick students?
As the percent of vaccinated students increase, the number of sick students will
decrease.
2) How many days do infected students need to stay home to have a significant
impact on the spread of the virus within the school?
If the spread of the virus within the school need to being stopped, the infected students
need to stay home at least a day. If want to have a greater impact, they should stay home
more than 7 day.
3) What impact does the % effectiveness of vaccine have on the flu outbreak?
The % effectiveness of vaccine is constant all along the stimulation. However, when the
% of effectiveness of vaccine increase, the number of sick student will decrease. The flu
outbreak virus spreading will slow down.
4) What combination of decisions results in the lowest number of sick students?
Are these decisions realistic in a real-world setting?
When the 100% vaccinated student is fully at home for 7 days, the number of sick student
will give the lowest result; means the number of sick student decreasing as the days
increasing. This decision is realistic if everyone give support especially for their child to
being vaccinated.

CONCLUSION
When we compare the number of sick students between the percentage of vaccinated students
and the average days of infected students stay home, it can be said that the most effective way to
limit the outbreak of the H1N1 virus in school is by vaccinating the students. However, it is
much better for all students to be vaccinated and those who are infected to stay at home at the
same time in order to minimize the spread of H1N1 virus at school.
From the simulation using Stella model, we as future teachers can help to enhance thinking skills
of students by showing the data from the graph. It will makes students to interpret data shown in
the graph. Learning would be so fun by using this model because we can help students to
understand better on what they have learned and from the graph, students can predict the
outcome of the experiment conducted by using the data shown in the graph.

REFERENCES
1. Merritt, J. (2009, November 13). Modeling H1N1 Flu Outbreak. Retrieved from
http://blog.iseesystems.com/stella-ithink/modeling-h1n1-flu-outbreak/
2. U.S. Department of Health & Human Services. (2015, November 12) About The Flu.
Retrieved from http://www.flu.gov/about_the_flu/h1n1/