Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
-"r
I
)
.o,tro*"
07932
M. 8. GLASER
Manager
Envi ronmenta
I Affai rs Programs
November
- co^
L2,
L982
"Greenhouse" Effect
82EAP 256
7ls //*
M. B.
IIIBG:
rva
Attachments
GLASER
I{.
F,l.
WEINBERG
NOV 1
i98Z
Distribution List:
R. w. cohen
M. J. Connor, ilr.
E. E. David, Jr.
c. u. Eidt, Jr.
W. R. Epperly
R. L. Hirsch
T. G. Kaufmann
G. Levine
It. I"ong
D.
G.
J.
H.
R. Riley
R. Savage
A. Schriesbeim
iI. F . Taylor
D. T. Wade
H. N. Weinberg
c0 - NGREENHOUSE EFFECTN
PRC:::-:A.RY
SUilUARI
Predlctlons
- ngreenhouse
of the cltratologlcal
lnduced
gauge lhe !eo-
EC-11-5/ A3
i.
-2trlght rlse the O.5o needed to get beyond the range of noraal tenperature
fluctuatlons. On the other hand, lf clfunate oodellng uncertalntles have'
exaggerated the tenperature rlse, lt ls posslble ttrat.a carbon dloxlde lnduced
trgreenhouse effectn oay not be detected untll ?O?O at'the earllest.
Tbe ngreenhouse effectn ls not 1lkely to cause substaqtlal cllnatlc cbanges
untll the average global tenperature rlses at least log above todayrs levels.
Thls eould occur ln the second to thlrd guarter of tbe nert century. goreyer,
there ts concern atrong sone sclentlfle groups thab once ttre effecti are
neasurable, they nlght not be reverslble and llttle could be done to correct
in
synthettc. fuels
EC-1
1-5lA4
-."
PROPnIETANT I}IFOR}IATION
FON AUTHONIZED COI{PANI USE OTILT
A TECHNICAL
PREPANED
REVIETI
BT
THE
APnrL
EC:11-5/A2
1,
1982
A TECHNICAL
REVIEW
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PAGE NO.
Sources and Dispositlon of Atnospherlc Carbon Dtoxide Thil CanbOn Cyele.. o ... o.. ... ... . .. ... ... ... ... . .. ... . . o . .. ..
...
. .o..o
15
17
o...
r........
1g
26
30
EC-l1-5/A5
-2c02 cREEllnousE
EFFECT
Background
:
-
contlnuously' af
the butldup of co. ln the atoosphere has been Eonltored
I s (llOM) Observatory 8t
AdDtnlstratloo
the Natlona1 Oceaflc and Atuospherlc
Hauna Loe, Hanall, and perlodtcally 1n other places since 1957. In addltlon
to observlng a trend between 1957 -1979 that strowed atEospherlc co2 lncreaslng
fron 315 to 33? ppn, Keellng and others a13o observed a seasonal ?arlablllty
ranglng froo 6 lo 10 pp betreen a lox at the end of ttre suDDer growing season
(aui to phoeosynthesls) and a h!.gh at the end of ntnter (due to fossll f\rel.
burnlng for heat, aDd bloDass decay). rhere ls 11!t1e doubt that these observatlons tndleate a SroFlh of stEosPherle CO" (see F!'gure 1). It ls also
belleved that the Srowth of atEospherlc Cor-has beeD occurrtng since the
niddle of the past cenbury, 1.e., coincldefit r{'ltb the start of the Industrlal.
the at[osBevolutlon. I?rere ls, however, Sreat uncertainty as to wbether
Dherlc co^ concentration prlor to the Industrlal Revol.utlon (ca. ' 1850) ras
)go-goo pfin uhlch one would arrlve at by assuulng atoospherlc C0" Srowth ls
due to fossl1 fuel burnlng and ceoent Danufacturlng, ot 260-270 lpu based on
c'arbon Lsotope EeasureEents ln tree rlngs. The lnfortatlol- 9n. c9z concentratlon prlor to 1850 i3 lnportant because lt rroul d helP establish the valld1ty
of cliroatlc predlctlons nlth respeet to the tnceptlon of a CO2 I'nduced
tgreenhouse effectn.
Tbe
and
Eii
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tIT
-4carbon. Yet, highly respcted sclentlsts such as Hcodwe11, Bolln and others
have postulaled a net blonass contrlbutlon to atDospherlc C0. that ranges
froo 1 to perhaps 8 GL/a ot earbon. Drrlng 1980, a nrnber of dlfferent groups
Produced ner estloates of the contrlbutlon of organlo. terrestlal fl|[es to
atoosphertc C0r. A consensus has not been reached, but esttsates of the
net annual terFestlal blosphere eolsslons to the at&osphere noH range betueen
a 4 GtC/a source and a 2 GtCla slnk. Flgure 2 al@Earizes the Cluxes and
reservoLrs for the carbon cycle. rt should be noted that the net blosphere
contrlbutlon nas assuued to be 0-2 Cte/a.
rate of forest clearlng has been estfuoatqd 4f 0.5/ Eo 1.51 per yeaE of the
exlstlng area. Forests occupy about 50 x 10-h' out of about 150 x lOekn< of
contlnental land, and store about 650 Gt of carbon. Gre can easily see that
lf 0.5t of tbe rprldrs forests are cleared per year, ttrls could contrlbute
about 3.0 Gt/a of carbon to the ateosphere. Even lf reforeqtaH.o! $ere
contrlbutlng slgnlf1cantly to balanclng the C0, froE deforestatlon, tbe
total. carbon stored 1n nelt trees tends to be ofily a s6a11 fractlon of the net
cerbon eoltted. It sbould ie noted, however, that the'rate of forest cl.earing
and reforestatlon are not loonn accurately at thl. s tiue. If deforestatlon is
indeed contributlng to atoosphertc cOr, then another slnk for carbon uust be
- found, and the Jmpaet of fossil fuel 6ust be considered in the conbext of sueh
The
'
slnk.
the Eagnltude of the carbon flIuxes shom ln Figure 2 betlreen,tbe atuosphere and
the terrestlal biosphere'. and the atoosphere and the oceans are not precisely
knom. lhe flor of csrbon between these reservolr palrs ls generally asslud
to hve been ln equlllbrltn prlor to the rndustrlal Revolutlon. lbwever, the
errors in ihe estlnated Eagnitude of these BaJor filuxes are probably larger
than the oagnltude of the estlnated Een-Ead e carbon fluxesi 1.e., fossll fuels
and deforestatlon. Ihe.nan-nade f,Luxes ere assEed to be the onl.y ooes that
have dlsturbed tbe equlllbrluu tbit ls belleved to have dlsted before the
rndustrial Revolutlon, and they can be estloated lndependenU.y of tbe naJor
fluxes. tlre nan-oad e carbon f,lures are balanced ln Flgure 2 betneen the krom
gror./th rate of ateospherlc cerbon and the oceans. fhe carbon f,tux to ttre
atnosptrere ts 6Gt/a froo fosstl fuels and ce&ent nanufacturlng (cenent nanufaeturlng contrlbutes about 4t of non-blospbere anthropogenle carbon) and
2Gtla llon deforestatlon, rrhlle 4ct/a return to the ocean, resultlng Ln a 50!
carbon retentlon rate 1n the atuosphere. Ore cannot rule out, ln vlen of the
lnherent lnrcertalnty of the uaJor flrxes, that tbe blosphere nay be a Det slnk
and the oceans Eay absorb nuch less of ttre nan-nade COr.
ProJectlons of scl.entlsgs actlve tn the .area lndlcate that the contrlbutlon
deforestatlon whlch Day have been subStantlal 1n the past, rr111 dtnlnlsh
ln cooparlson to' lhe erpected rate of fossil fuel coDbustlon ln the future.
A few years ago a nrober of scienttsts hypothesl zed that a doubltng of the
anount of carbon dlorlde ln the atoosphere could occur as ear).y as 2035. !?rls
hypothesls ts generally not acceptable anlmore because of the g1oba1 curtallnent of fossll fuel usage. Glculatlons recently co@pleted at Exxon Research
of
EC-11-5/L7
TICURE 2
';
Almrisphete
Combusllon
Photo-
0:2
(650) Blota
Sirrlace
(39,000)
FossllFuels
and $hale
Terreslrlal
Blosphere
lnlermedlale,
Deep Ocean
and Sedlments
Oceans
Reservolrs ln Bllllons ol
Year
to lorrer
denand.
rhe nost ridely accepted calculallons carrled on tbus far on the PoteDt!.af
lBpacg on clluate of doubllng the carbon dloxLde contedt of the atDosPhere
use general. circulatlon Eodels (GCI). ltr;se Eodels lndlcate that an lncrease
1n giobal everage tetsperature of 3- I 1.5-c ts oost likely. $rch changes
.ln tenperature are expected !o occur rith uneven Seographlc dlglributlon rith
- greatei iramlng occurrlng at tbe hlgher latltudes, 1.e.' the polar reglons.
ittts ls due to lncreased absorptlon of solar radlatlon energy on tbe darker
polar gurfaces that Hould becme eXposed Hhen lce and SnoU cover nelt due to
increaslng legpereture (see FlEure 4). :here bave been othei calculatlons
uslng radlatlve convectlve nodels and energy bslaDge uodels wttlch ProJec!
average te&perature lncreases on the order of 0.75-C for a doubllng of
' CO^. these calculations are c@Pared ln Flgure 5- Flgure 6 suonarlzes
pogslbte beDperagure lncreases due to varlous cheD8es ln atnosPberic C0,
concentratlon.
If the atnospherlc CO, content had beeD 295 PW prlor bo the IndustrlaL
Revolutlon, ,and an avrage g1oba1 teoperature Lncrease above clloate nolse
general
ls detectable at the present tine, thls r+ould add eredlblltty to theppn
prlor
and
been
265
c0.
concentratton
lf
the
Honever,
_clrculatlon nodels.
g.F-C
to the Industrlal Revolutlon, then dete6tlng a tegPerature effect of
now xould iuply that the tenPerature for a doubllng of C02 ltould b: 1.9-CA
fhe proJected tenperatures for botb afternatlves faII wlthln the l- 3 1.5-C
rang-. Tenperature proJecttons for alternate scenarlos wl11 be dlscussed
later
Cllnate nodeling Has studled by a coDBlttee of the Natlonal Research Councif '
chalred by Jules G. Charney of HIT, aod the concluslons are suErnarl.zed 1n
places ln lbls report
ffi't-sfcentury Studyr referred to here and ln other12030
study!. rhe neH
the
ca1led
study
enerSy
has been superseded by a ner
flSures but
the
earll.er
than
lower
study projects energy deoands that are
'
of
thls report.
not suificlently dlfferent to change eny of the conclusions
Ec-11-5/A8
-7-
Figure
.3
C'
E
CL
4
ul
IIJ
v)
uJ
()
500
=
tg
tc
f
F
I
E
450
c,
uJ
A
c)
I
;I
=
F
UJ
420
UJ
U)
cE
uJ
F
=
300
1960
YEAR
f i<rure
,l
Basis;
Cornputod by
the
U.
S.
Nat
mode1,
x CO2-Standard
Stratosphere
oII
Tropopause
o
!
:'
Surlace
900
Pol e
800
700
600
500
400
300 200
100
Latltude
Decrease
0o
Equa
ln
Temperature
tor
Fl.gure
Radiative
_' convectNe
models
EnergY
balance
models
a a
14
al '
a.
GCMs
Thc chrngc in globally rvcngcd surfece eir rcmperrture rcsulting from
..-t0Figure
f4
-c
G'
CN
aE
TT
C'g
1ql
-3
-[
3C
CL
E2
6J
o,
c)
(,
G'
=
u,
I
0
*
-1
600
300
-
COz @ncentntion
900
-
pprflY
1200
1500
Flgure
WETTER
t',
I
Irrmplc ol r rtcwlo ol porrlblc roll moltlurc prllcrot on r rrrtncr ttrlh. ttlt btrcd on prhocllinrllc rc<onrlrucllonr of lhc
Allhhcrnrl tcrlod (al00 lo lo0 ycrt ttol, tornprdroor ol ra.col rrrrn lnd (old ycrnin lhc Northcrn Hcm6phcrc, rnd I
dlnrlc rnodcl crptdncnl ltor r-dlrcurdoo ol lhsc rourccl ol lnlornttlon rc AiFrdtr C., Whcr. tr" oi 111'ot. oi rhcrc
..oltt(cr lttcc on aha dl.acllorr ol lhc tiln'o rrc htrc lodlolcd lhc rrte ol rlriircrrt slrh r derhcd lnc rnd r bbcL
11
.
'
,.
13 _
could cause e rlse 1n sea level on the order of 5 Deters. Such a rlse would
ceuse floodlng on Duch of the U.s. East coas!, lncludlng the state of Florlda
and i{ashlngton, D.c.
_Ihe Deltlng rate of polar 1ee is belng studled by a
nuEber of graclaloglsts.
Estloates for the oeltlng of the iest anarctlca 1ce
sheet range frotr hundreds of years to a ttrousand years. EtE[ns and EpstelD
observed a 45 no ralse in Eean sea leve1. rhey account for the rlse by
assu!01n9 that the top T0 n of tbe oceans has rlarred by o.3oc fron 1g90 to
1940 (as has the atoosphere) causlng a 24 un rlse ln sea ievel due to
expanslon. lbey attrlbut"_ghg lf't of the sea level rlse to neMng ofthetu8l
polar
lce. However, neIllrig 51 Tt (10''
Eetrlc tonnes) of 1ce nould reduce ocean
teEperature by 0.2-c, and erplaln nhy the global nean surface teEperature
has not lncreased as predicted by COA greeohouse theorles.
In
of
t. co, fertlllzatlon courd have broad bcneflclal effects oD agrlcur,tuFe. . These effeets need to be studled in deeall and for i varlety
.-.-of plant, soll and clloatic condltlons.
2. &ere 1s a need for a fuller understandlng of the dynaDlcs of currents and raber nasses ln the Arctlc Ocean.
3. It 1s necessary to deter-olne rhetber there hras deglaclatl,on of the
l{est Ancarctrc 1ce sheet about 120,0o0 years ego ind whetber thls
caused a rlse rn global sea Ievels at that trni. rr ftrs occurred,
then ihe rnfor'atlon could serve as an analog
ruirr" Jegracratl,on.
4. rt is
"r
EC-11-5/ A10
-145,
6.
etc
and non-
8.
9.
10.
Studles
sltuations
.(so11
Research ls recomended on itte flIoH of lnforaatlon on risk perceptlon and declslou nakln! to and froo botb layoen and experts, the
physiologlcal aspects of understandlng and percegtlon, and tbe
the DepartEent of Energy (DOE) whlch ls actlng as a focal polnt for the u.s.
governEeDt tn thls area ls plannlng to lssue tHo reports to the sclentlfle
iooounity and lo pollcy Eakers. I?re ftrst one, sle6arlzlng- five years of
study is due ln 1984, and th. secoBd oDe tn 1989. the current plan 18 to
lnvest approrlnately 1O years of research and assessBent prlor to recoEoendlng
polley declslon3 1n lhls area *h1ch lDpac! Sreatly on tbe energy Deeds and
ic"naitos for the U.S. and the rprld.' I?te strateglc eleuents of thc Unlted
Ststes netional tota). COz PrograE are suonarl zed ln Flgure 8.
uucb of the goverruoeBt sponsored effort to date bas focused oa dellneatlng
tlre research needed to enhance our understandlng of bhe PoteltXal problens.
AccordlDgly, a nuEber of rDrkshoPs and s)'lPosla uere held to th13 end' Itre
consensui of the key research needs ls suonarized ln Flgure_ 8 under the
headlng nResearch PrograD Rerul.ts. n To date, Eost of the research effort hat
been concentraged on the f!rs! t$o research categortes. It shoul.d be noted'
hoHever, that lbls research started ln 19?9 and tbere'are few results to
belng conducted at thls tlae ts calIed
report. the Eost aabltlous proJect
iSianslent Tracer ln the Ocean (TTO).tt Thls researcb' Jolntly funded by the
ls a 4H$ ProJect to lnvestlgate
DOE and the Nalional Sclence Foundatlon (ISF)
'
ulderstandlng of hott surfacc
the
ocean nixlng processes in order to enhance
1n0o lhe dFFp ocean"^ Tracers noroally found ln the
nater CO- ls olred
t*c,
5H, 5He, o'Kr and J'Ar, are oonltored 14 the North
ocean. s6ch as
Atlantic Ocean froB oceanographl'c veasels.
In addltlon to tbe E1:lng of surface uaters lnto the botton layers, carbon can
be added to deep uaters by lbe olldatloD of organlc Batter and tbe dissolutlon
of cal.clun carbonatr. In order to seParate these three processes and deteral.k3llBlty.
ulne thetr.relatlve slgnlflcance, prectse total, carbon dtoxlde'
gest
natheoatlcal
to
construct
and
aie
needed
data
and calclun concentratloa
oodels. Prellninary analysls of the 1lD1!ed dala lndlcates that (l) lateral
processes dor0lnale the dlstrl.butlon of calcltu and lnor8anic carbon ln thc
caleltu carbonate
i""p o"""o" array fron the polar reglons, (2) the anount ofprevlously
esttDated
dissoclated ln lhe deep oceans ls only a fractlon of tbe
tbe
deep
penetrated
lnto
farther
(3)
havc
COr
Day
excess
the
value, and
oceans tban the
u1tlEate1y. CO^ ln the a1r should flnd lls nay lnto tbe deep ocean sedluents. As'curFently underslood, lhe deeper sedl.ents have thus far been
of the
l1ttIe affected by tbe fossil fuel era because of the slor B1xln8
$ater
shalloH
sotoe
that
contentlon
exaolned.the
ocean. A group of sclentlsts
provldl.ng
for
atoosphertc
a
sink
thUs
sedloents eoulb no11 be dissolvlng and
CO^, and concluded tha! the extent of dl'ssolutton ls not great enough to
hafe a large effect on the 81oba1 carbon cycle.
CO, concentratlon ln the alr
It nould bd helpful lf rellable estinates of thewtren-the
Dodern Deasurerents
yesrs
Eo
1957,
Prlor
could be obtatned for the
EC-11-5/ 412
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_17
'Groups
ln
There are currently aPProxlt0stely ll0 earboa cycle and cllnaLe research projecls in about 25 dlfferen! lnstltutlons. Hany of thebe proJccls are elther
supported jointl.y by the DOE and other agencies or etcluslvely by other
aglnctes. Tire 1982 Federal budget request for C0, research was 23.9H$. The
D6E, as the lead agency, wourd be atlocaied 1ll.oMt, ilsF 6.4H$, NgAlt 2.5H6. and
: the Departnent of AgrLculture 1.0M$.
A draft report fron Hassachusetts Instltute of Technology (MfT) and Oak Rldge
(ORIL) aulhored by D. Rose and others consldered the societal and techno1ogleaI lnertla vls a vis declslon loaking on the CO, 1ssue. lhe C02 probleo
was consldered as the oaJor potential cbnstralnt on'fossil fuel usel It nzs
estbated ln the study that the C0, proble! Eay curtall fossll fuel use
before physlcal degletlon occurs. 'Considerable effort was devoted 1n the
study to noptlon space,n 1.e., Httat are the potential energy alternatlves,
hor long would lt take to lntroduee theo, and Hhat type of oaterlal resources
rrould be needed for effectlve Earket Penetratlon. 0n reviewing the rePort ne
addressed only the technlcal questlons relatlng to COr' and dld not evaluate
the plauslbl1lty of the scenarlos relallng to energy Ese 1n the future.
EC-11-5/413
different levels:
addltlon
Rate of C0^
z
years.
5o
1.
CO2
at
tno
450-500'ppo tn
posslble.
!o
In hls analysls. Rose lntroduced the concept of AIl (actlon tnj.tiatlon tloe) '
deflned as the tlue when pollcies to nodlfy or restraln fossil fuel use
actually slart !o be effeclive. Based on thls concePt' Rose proJects nonfossll grorlh rates of 6 lo 97/a over 40 bo 50 years in order to 11nlt atnospherj.c CO^ to 5OO to ?00 PpB. these rates can be put ln PersPectlve by
noting thaf sucb growth rates Here achteved for aatural 8as lntroductlon.
Houever r nuclear or solar sourcei rDuld have aevere restrlctl,ons because
such technologles are not as econoBlcally and polltical1y attractlve, tecbno-
ls
EC-1
1-5lA14
expected
to
have a
In
_19_
aslnllarveintdethanelsprluarllyeDl.ttedtotheetDospherevlathe
anaeroUfc ferointatlon of oiganlc Daterlal. The contrlbutlon of anthropogenlc
are lt to 101 of tbe
actlvltles (rnlnlng, tnduElrlal processes, and coubustton)
of nethane ls
destructlon
atoospberlc
lbe
iot"f "t o"pherlc Eethane sourcls.
and fornaldeyle1d
vagor
water
CO,
iore rapla tnan that of co' and tends to
foreatton
ozone
tropospherlc
to
tia.. i1so. Dethane ls Uefleved to contrlbute
anthopogenlc
to
can be traced
ly-oifaf"fni to COr. Ihe CO tn the atnosphere
of nethane (30f). ltre
oxidatlon
atnospherlthe
to
and
;";;;;-ito-a 6vll
conslder
iailr co sfnk 1s orldation (?o to 90t) to Cor' -One-can
lher:.fore
ultlnately
nethane
CO
and
Aecordingly,
COr.
prdcursors
to
CO-anO nettrane as
CO2.
fre-Nrg'
part
atEospherlc
of
as
contriUute Co eJ,lnagologlcal effecs
ontheotherhand,EaynotbedtrectlyrelatedtofossllfuelEolbustloE.()nc
part
siiouia cuestron rhetnir the other ngreenhouser Sases should be consldered
conncctlon
regardlng tbelr
ii tir. iO^ orobleo ln vtex of the uncertalnttesirhether
thetr- effect crould be
tlDe,
tlris
at
clear,
not
ls
rt
l"
"i."gvtu'"".
ra C0 Z.
addltlve
Forecast
Fuel
Based
Exxonrs Long
ook
Ot1 = 1?0 lb
cas = 115 lb
Coal = 20?
lb
the
In addltion, ttte quantlty of carbon dloxide that could be eoltted froeestlnated
was
shale
processlng
o11
U.S.
deconposltlon of carbonate Blnerals ln
Uy avlraglng thls potentlally large CO, source over the GreeD Rlver foroation resource base. It should be nobei that Poorer shale resources tend to
mtffiI-ru on netrlc tons of carbon.
EC-11-5/A15
Quads,/a
1979
Year
oil
-lT.s.
Canada
others
32.09
4 . 06
96.62
Totar
Gas
--T.s.
Canada
others
Total
Coal
-u.s.
Canada
others
Total
L37
-77
2000
201s
2030
2050
:.
33.32 ,. 32.01
4 .30
4 .7L
111.93
12S.16
35.35
5.62
139.63
36.35
6.09
t4B.5Z
36.80
5.g7
L3Z.7S
r9t.0t
Lls.sz
1990
14 9 .
55
164
ag
rB0.
60
20.95
1.83
30.88
53.66
17.93
2.5L"
55.54
75.88
17.24
2.88
74 .95:
95.07
.15.98
3.49
96.24
lo5.7o
t6.g7
4 .38
99.65
120.90
L7.42
4.73
log .68
14.69
0.80
60.17
75.66
2O.L4
I.37
81.44
102.95
29.66
1.90
103.90
134.54 ',
32.19
2.72
125;55
165.41
43,12
3.62
1?5.55
222.54
55.10
5.3S
261.14
130.83
321
Fossil Fuels
world Total
Rate
t/a
.59
267.09
328.38
3g4.4.g '
45r.?1
534.45
1.90
1.85
1.I3'
0.81
9.91
62i.g4
,!
o,
-21 tluch more CO^ fro! cerbonate loinerals than tbe loore deslrable hlgh
quality resources for the saDe quantlty of shale o11 produced. It lfas further
assuned that 65t of tbe carbonate ldneral's decoDPose durlng processlng. ftls
very conseryatlve assuEptlon ls based on the average.of 1001 decooPositlon
that Eay occur ln thot spotsn during ln-situ recovery and 3Qt decoBPosltlon
tbat ls generally observed ln above ground retortlnE. lable 2 stnoarlzes the
total CO- produced Ln GEC/a, Please note that CO, eDlsslons resultlng
fron Co^'nlxed wlth natural 8as ln producing we113 can be substantlal' but
due Lo he unavallablltty of quantltative data thts factor l{as assuled to
contrlbute about 5t addltlonal CO^ currently rislng to 151 ln the year 2050.
Thls trend of C0, eontaninatlon of natural 8as ls cooslstent with recent Euon
eEit
exper1'ence.
The contributions of sbale o11 to prluary fossiL fl)el energy and prlBary
fossll fuel carbon are sunDarlzed ln Teble 3. lttls !ab1e shot s that the
fractlon of shale o11 C0, euisslons to total C0, ls greater.'than the
corresponding contrlbutlSn of shale o11 energy o total energy. Table 3 also
indlcales the breakdoHn between co, generated in Produblng and consuning
shale o11, and that due to carbonaEe olneral decouposltlon.
effect.
one variatlon of the Hlgh-Case scenarlo nas considered. It lras assuEed that
adequate quantttles of o11 and gas $ould be dlseovered to exactly natch those
estioated to be produced froa synthetlc fuels ln the Hlgh Case scenarlo. and
thus balance the prlnary energy needs of the 21st Century Study. Ibe net
quantlty of carbon that woul.d be saved ls s"nrrrarlzed ln Table 5. Itre lnplleatlons of the syofuel losses are conpared Hitb the Hl.gh Case ln Figure 3. I?re
overall lnp.act Ls rel.attvely nlnor.
EC-11-5/
A'-t6
t.
TABLE2,
Gtcr/a
L979
2.90
Year
oil
Inorganrc
.a
1990
3.15
0.01
2000
3.47
0.05
L6
.5?
1.35
0.L5
2015
. 3.79
0.19
2030
4.0I ' '
0.2'l
2050
.98
1.50
O.18
.28
L;72
O.22
4. 09
.68
4.24
9.90
I .94
2.L4
5.70
11.92
8.24
3.69
0.40
Carbon
Total
O11
Gas
in
COz
Tota1
Gas
Gas
Total CoaI
World
Tota1
Rate l/a
2.9O
0.76
0.04
l.0g
0.l1
0,80
1.93
5.63
l. Ig
2.64
7.00
3.
2.00
I .50
3.45
8.47
L.92
r
?l
1. 05
L.25
0.97
1.86
I
N
N
0.28
L4.47
0.80
TABLE 3
L979
Year
,.,--
Total
t Prlnary
--
Shale
EnergylPrlmary.
1990
2000
2015
l.0I
0.2I
3.65
L.49
L4
1.21
5.14
0.35
t.3O
2030
20s0
.38 , 20.66
2.56
5.55
1I.10
16.94
26.2L
41. g9
3.?5
{.90
30.79
5.6t
.Toral
O.O3
0.01
o.o4
O.I1
0.05
0.15
0.36
0.19
0.55
0.55
O.27
0.82
1.28
0.55
I.89_
5.55
S.gZ
8.05
Carbonate
carbon
0.88
0.10
,s
TADLE
Emitted,
Year
Stored in Atmosphere,.GtC
GtC
Incremental Cummulative
L979
Atmospheric
Concentration, ppm
7L5
j.
Average
ture
Increase, oC
'fempem
337
1990
69.3
6g.3
37.1
7s2
17.5
355
2000
77
.2
146.5
41.3
793
19.5
374
0.{5
137.5
284.0
73.6
857
34.7
409
0. 8r'
20L5
.22
2030
153.3
2050
263
2080
490.6
120r.4
262
2090
191.3
L392.7
102.3
.5
447 .3
710.
.4
954
4L.2
450
L.25
14L.0
109s
65.5
s16
1.
.5
t35B
L23.7
640
2.78
48.2
588
3.09
87
'ire
B4
N
F,
I
TABLE 5
ESTIMATED INCREMENTAL CO2 CONTRIBUTION FROM
SvNTHETTC FUELS TO ATMOSPHERTC coi coNcENTRATToN
AND AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE INIEETgE
'
Gtc/a
Year
'
Shale Loss
Carbonate DecomPositlon
Total Stale
r
2ooo
?!!!
2o3o
20s0
o;00{
0 . 0I3
0.025
0. 04 7
0.069
0. r8 6
0.114
9.2Q7
0.18r
0.39I
"ry
OIS
!,,oaa
Rate t,/a
Incremental CO.r'
z
GtC
GtC
CummulatLve CO,',
z
*ry
0;235
offi
2080
6m
Coal Loge
Total Synfuele
1990
PFm
PPm
oC
L2.26
29.64
75.43
o.8o
4.53
0.2
0.9
I'9
4'4
II'5
0.2
i'L
3'1
7'5 ,
19
3ss
37
407
.446
0.22
0.45
0.82
1.21
506
1.75
616
2.6L
N
l,l
|
-26Detection
a nuEber of clfuoatologlsls c1aln that they are currently Beasurlng a teoperature sl.gnal (above cllnate noise) due to a c02 induced gtreenhouse effect.
rh1le the EaJorlty do not expect such a slgnai to be detectable before the
year 2OOO. In order to quantlfy the lnpllcatlons of detectlng a greenhouse
iffecl nor, as opposed to the year 2000, estlEales nere uade on te&perature
projections as a functlon of tbe co" concentration .that exlsted Prlor to the
concentratlon Prlor to ttle
inaugtr:.al Revolutlon. Avallable d5ta on CO,
-goups:
260 Lo 270 pP@ or 290 to
lnto
bwo
Revolution tend to faI1
. Induslrla1
Here
estlBated as a
3OO ppB. In Table 6, Posslble teloperature lncreases
of lnltial co^ concentratlons of 265 and 295 PPe. Teoperatules
- i,rnoiion
proJected for th;3"-;;;;,'"i".1-crj a-teoperaluri-lncreasl of 3oc
. were
obcur! ii current CO^ concentratlon doubles. (2) the greenhouse effect ts
debectable non (19?9f, and (3) the greenhouse affect 1s deteqted ln the year
2000.
EC-1'-t-5/417
in
TABLE
ON
llemperature,
Atmospherlc
'rtme
Co2
oC
DE EEC
-aef
295
(InBtantaneous
Equll lbr lum)
65
1,000
,v2L4O
4.3
4.4
2.8
4.6
1.9
2;5
800
p2LlO
3.6
3.6
2.3
3.7
1.4
2.L
674 (Doubling)
-2090
3.0
3.0
1.9
3.1
1.3
r.7
451
2030
1.7
1.5
1.1
1.6
0.8
0.9
375
2000
1.1
0.9
o.7
0.9
0.5
0.5
33? (Current)
1979
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
Concentration,
PPm
295
^rl8
0.3
265
-I850
-tt:
Fiqure
Range
l-
)-;-.
3
v
I
o
.i
li
t,(d
:ot'
.o)g
.r!.o.c
ttuctu.aiions
including
.5 o
o0
t+t
t\L-
Range
.\\--
o0
(t-
ctranges without
Lo, effect (?l
-1
-!l
reso
l90o
of
fluctuations
(climatic noise)
---
natural
/P"rt
co2 effec.
./
-'/a"tt rC
F{
'F
/
/
i>
/ p,fat
,r'l:1,"":':l 1l
'
19sO 2000
Year
20s0
2100
_29 _
the behavtor of the nean global tenperature froo 1850 to the present, contalned
rdthln an envelop scaled to lnclude the randgn tenpe5ature fluctuatlons, and
proJected lnto the t\rture to lnclude the 1.3- to 3.1'C range of uncertalnty
noted above for the CO, effect.
Dependtng on the actual global energy denand and supplY, 1t1-" po""fble tbat
sone of the eoncerns about CO, Erowtb due to fossll fuel conbustlon nay be
reduced lf foss1l fuel use lstdecreaseS due to hlgh prlee, scarclty,'and
unavallabll1ty.
The above dlscusslon assunes that an lnstantaneous cllnatlc resPonse results
froa an lncrease ln atrnosptrerlc GOo concentratlon. In actuallty' the
tenperabure effect nould llke1y Ia! the C0, change by about 20 years beeause
the oceans would tend to danp out tenperat[re changes"
Gtven the long tern nafure of the potentlal problen and the ulcertalntles
lnvo1ved, tt rould appear that there ls tlne for firther study and nonl'tortng
before speclflc acllons need be taken. At the present tl.ne, that actlon would
Itkely be curtallnent of fossll fuel consunptlon uhlch rculd undoubtedly
serlously inpact tlre worldts economles and socleties. Key Polnts needlng
.better deflnition lnclude the lnpact of fossll fuel conbuslon and the role of
-ttre oceans ln the carbon cycle and the lnteractlve effect of carbon dl'oxlde
and other trace atnospherlc gases on clluate-
EC-l1-5/A18
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Ec-11-5/ tQ9