May 8, 2015

Global Markets Research

Daily Market Highlights
Overnight Economic Data

Key Takeaways
Chee8 .

Malaysia
US

BNM MPC meeting offered no surprises, keeping OPR unchanged at 3.25% and maintaining a
neutral policy tone, reinforcing our view for a rate pause this year. In an earlier release, data

Eurozone

showed exports bounced back strongly in March post Lunar New Year and trade surplus

Japan

widened for the first time in four months, but we remain skeptical if such momentum could be
sustained amid a soft global backdrop and weak commodity prices. Abroad, initial jobless

Australia

claims rose less than expected while continuing claims hovered near a 15-year low,
offering reprieve the US job market is tracking on a steady recovery path. We are looking

Government Bond Yield

upon tonights NFP for reaffirmation.

USD strengthened against all G10s and the Dollar Index rose to 94.63 amid job growth
optimism and renewed refuge demand amid slip in higher yielding assets. We expect USD to

3-year

3.28

5-year

3.61

7-year

3.80

10-year

3.90

uninspired by wider Malaysian trade surplus as buyers stayed on the sideline. MYR also fell
against all G10s. Following overnight rebound in USD and renewed weakness in oil prices

15-year

4.03

20-year

4.19

coupled with likelihood of edgy buyers ahead of US NFP tonight, we expect MYR to extend its

30-year

4.61

2-year

0.63

remain supported by ebbing risk appetite leading into US NFP tonight as well as renewed

MYR

weakness in European majors, led by EUR. MYR weakened 0.68% to 3.5942 against USD,

weakness against USD. USDMYR is likely to re-test 3.6137.

Local govvies saw profit taking yesterday, sending benchmark yields higher. Investors seen

UST

taking profit from weeks of gains seen for MYR govvies ahead of BNM MPC meeting. As widely
expected, BNM maintained the OPR unchanged at 3.25%, reinforcing views of a rate pause. Total

5-year

1.56

10-year

2.18

30-year

2.91

volume traded in MYR govvies was over RM2.2b. Focus continue to skew towards MGS 10/20
with RM325m traded with levels closing 4 bps higher at 3.61%. Meanwhile in the GII segment, we
saw GII 10/25 traded at 3.99-4.00% with RM384m changing hands. Expect all eyes to shift
towards US non-farm payrolls release and US unemployment data.

Daily Supports - Resistances

S2

S1

Indicative

R1

R2

EURUSD

1.1188

1.1225

1.1251

1.1290

1.1322

Whats Coming Up Next

USDJPY

119.67

119.76

119.78

119.89

119.96

GBPUSD

1.5309

1.5343

1.5395

1.5400

1.5450

Major Data
US nonfarm payroll, jobless rate
UK visible trade balance

AUDUSD

0.7869

0.7890

0.7896

0.7919

0.7948

EURGBP

0.7280

0.7300

0.7308

0.7343

0.7352

China exports
Major Events
RBA Statement of Monetary Policy
Bond Tender
Nil

USDMYR

3.5915

3.5953

3.5993

3.6065

3.6137

EURMYR

4.0339

4.0518

4.0532

4.0674

4.0717

JPYMYR

2.9932

3.0000

3.0066

3.0103

3.0140

GBPMYR

5.5270

5.5360

5.5451

5.5515

5.5672

SGDMYR

2.6979

2.7008

2.7025

2.7064

2.7076

AUDMYR

2.8354

2.8407

2.8436

2.8455

2.8508

NZDMYR

2.6689

2.6763

2.6785

2.6818

2.6876

= above 0.1% gain

= above 0.1% loss

Name
KLCI
Dow Jones Ind.

Last Price

DoD %

YTD %

Name

1805.1

-0.9

2.5

CRB Index

17924.1

0.5

0.6

WTI oil ($/bbl)

S&P 500

2088.0

0.4

1.4

Brent oil ($/bbl)

FTSE 100

6887.0

-0.7

4.9

Gold (S/oz)

Shanghai
Hang Seng
STI
Source: Bloomberg
1

Outlook

= less than 0.1% gain / loss

Last Price

DoD %

YTD %

226.8

-1.5

-1.4

58.9

-3.3

10.6

65.5

-3.3

14.3

1184.5

-0.6

-0.1
-5.4

4112.2

-2.8

27.1

CPO (RM/tonne)

2173.0

1.1

27290.0

-1.3

15.6

Copper ($/tonne)

6400.0

0.2

1.6

3432.8

-0.8

2.0

Rubber (sen/kg)

424.0

1.4

12.3

Macroeconomics
Economic Data
MY exports
MY OPR
US initial jobless claims
EU PMI retail
JP PMI services
AU employment change
AU jobless rate

For

Actual

Last

Survey

Mar
May-7
May-2
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr

2.3%
3.25%
265K
49.5
51.3
-2.9K
6.2%

-9.7%
3.25%
262K
48.6
48.4
48.1K
6.1%

-4.2%
3.25%
278K
--4.0K
6.2%

No surprise from BNM which left OPR unchanged at 3.25% for a fifth
straight meeting. In spite of slower growth projection in the first quarter,
the Malaysian economy is expected to remain on a steady growth path
which does not warrant a rate cut. In a separate release, Malaysia
exports staged a surprised turnaround to increase 2.3% YOY in March,
thanks to higher shipment to the US and China post-Lunar New Year.
Growth was led my manufacturing exports most notably E&E as
commodity exports extended its decline. As a result of the hefty
rebound in exports, trade surplus widened for the first time in four
months, to RM7.8bn. Looking ahead, exports outlook remains cloudy in
the wake of soft global demand although a weaker MYR could help
mitigate some of the impact. No change to our 4.5% growth forecast
for 2015.

Source: Bloomberg

Over in the US, initial jobless claims surprised on the upside as fewer
Americans than forecast filed for unemployment benefits last week.
Last week, 265,000 Americans filed unemployment claims for the first
time versus a record low of 262,000 in the previous week, boosting the
likelihood of upbeat NFP and unemployment rate prints due tonight.

Eurozone PMI retail index climbed to a 10-month high of 49.5 in April

shored up by increases in France and Italy. The index however
remained in contraction territory for the 10th straight month, pointing to
sluggishness in retail spending.

Japan PMI services jumped to 51.3 in April, signaling expansion for the
first time in three months as the employment index rose to a 5-month
high. This was in line with services indices seen elsewhere which
signaled continued growth in the services sector despite weakness in
manufacturing.

In Australia, the job market saw 2.9K jobs slashed in April but this was
offset by upwardly revised job creation from 37.7K to 48.1K in March.
The losses were dragged by a fall in full time employment (-21.9K) that
offset the 19.0K gain in part time employment, a sign of sluggishness
in the labour market. Unemployment rate inched higher to 6.2% as
expected while participation rates were unchanged at 64.8%.

Economic Calendar Release Date

Country

Date

MY

Event

11/5

Survey

Prior

Revised

Industrial production

Mar

4.4%

5.2%

--

Manufacturing sales

Mar

--

-2.6%

--

May 7

--

$105.6b

--

Apr

228K

126K

--

Unemployment rate

Apr

5.4%

5.5%

--

Wholesale inventories MOM

Mar

0.3%

0.3%

--

Halifax house prices YOY

Apr

7.8%

8.1%

--

Foreign reserves
US

8/5

UK

7 10 / 5

China

Australia

8/5

Visible trade balance in mln

Mar

-9800

-10340

--

11/5

BOE rate

May 11

0.50%

0.50%

--

BOE asset purchase target

May 11

--

375b

--

8/5

Exports YOY

Apr

1.6%

-15.0%

--

9/5

CPI YOY

Apr

1.6%

1.4%

--

PPI YOY

Apr

-4.5%

-4.6%

--

NAB biz conditions

Apr

--

--

NAB biz confidence

Apr

--

--

11/5

Source: Bloomberg

Change in nonfarm payrolls

Reporting Period

Forex
FX Table

MYR

Nam e

Last Price

DoD %

High

Low

YTD %

EURUSD

1.1267

-0.71

1.1392

1.1237

-7.0

USDJPY

119.74

0.23

119.86

119.06

0.0

MYR weakened 0.68% to 3.5942 against USD, uninspired by wider

Malaysian trade surplus as buyers stayed on the sideline. MYR also fell

Following overnight rebound in USD and renewed weakness in oil prices

against all G10s.

GBPUSD

1.5245

-0.01

1.5275

1.5164

-1.2

AUDUSD

0.7907

-0.78

0.8005

0.7890

-3.4

coupled with likelihood of buyers continue staying on the sides ahead of US

NFP tonight, we expect MYR to extend its weakness against USD.

EURGBP

0.7390

-0.69 0.74832

0.7380

-5.9

USDMYR is likely to re-test 3.6137.

USDMYR

3.5942

0.68

3.6058

3.5652

3.0

EURMYR

4.0828

1.89

4.0963

4.0444

-4.7

JPYMYR

3.0018

0.46

3.0211

2.9859

3.0

GBPMYR

5.4604

0.81

5.4821

5.4360

1.8

SGDMYR

2.7019

0.54

2.7095

2.6930

2.1

AUDMYR

2.8568

0.32

2.8731

2.8357

-0.7

NZDMYR

2.6880

0.51

2.7025

2.6701

USD

USD rallied to beat all G10s on firmer US data and renewed demand for
refuge as higher yielding assets slipped. The Dollar Index climbed through
early European and late US morning trades before easing slightly
thereafter, but nonetheless closing higher at 94.63.

We expect USD to remain supported by ebbing risk appetite leading into

US NFP tonight as well as renewed weakness in European majors, led by
EUR.

-2.3

Source: Bloomberg

EUR

AUD

0.32

JPY

0.46

SGD

weakened against 9 G10s.

MYR
Depreciated

0.54

0.59

CNY

USD

0.68

GBP

GBP

0.81

EUR
CHF

2.05

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

GBP was mostly flat throughout trading and ended 0.01% lower at 1.5245
against USD as bids were sidelined by preliminary results of UK elections.

1.89

0.00

EUR is likely to soften on the back of a supported USD; following

strong downside rejection yesterday, EURUSD is fragile and losing
1.1225 risks further decline to as low as 1.1188 and below.

0.67

HKD

EUR has its upside strength clipped by news that a Greek-EU deal on
extended government funding may not be reached before the coming
Monday, exposing Greece to risk of delayed debt payment to the IMF due
12 May. EUR fell 0.71% to 1.1267 against a rejuvenated USD and

MYR vs Major Counterparts (% DOD)

We are bullish on GBPUSD following an early surge close to 1.5450 as

early UK election results showed reduced risk of a hung parliament, and
with it, less political uncertainty. We expect upside bias to sustain while
above 1.5309.

2.50

JPY

JPY caved in to USDs rally to close 0.23% weaker at 119.74.

Nonetheless, support from rising refuge demand on the back of sell-off in
higher yielding assets led JPY higher against 7 G10s.

We now turn slightly bearish on JPY against a rejuvenated USD;

USDJPYs advance will be capped by 119.89, above which there is room
for a rally to 120.00.

AUD

AUD tumbled against all G10s and weakened 0.78% against USD to
0.7907, led lower by sell-off in higher yielding assets.

We are now bearish on AUDUSD with bids likely to stay soft ahead of
RBA minutes and US NFP; downside bias sustains while below 0.7919.

SGD

SGD fell against 9 G10s following retreating risk appetite in the markets
and weakened 0.7% against a rallying USD to close at 1.3327.

SGD is likely to trade to a weakening bias against USD as risk appetite

ebbs heading into US NFP tonight.

US T

Fixed Income

T e nure

C lo s ing ( %)

C hg (bps )

2-yr UST

0.63

-1

5-yr UST

1.56

-3

10-yr UST

2.18

-6

30-yr UST

2.91

-7

M GS

G II*

T e nure

C lo s ing (%)

3-yr

3.28

C hg (bps )
-2

C lo s ing (%)
3.42

C hg (bps )

5-yr

3.61

3.70

7-yr

3.80

3.89

10-yr

3.90

4.00

15-yr

4.03

4.19

20-yr

4.19

4.26

30-yr

4.61

M YR IR S Le v e ls
IR S

C lo s ing ( %)

1-yr

3.64

3-yr

3.68

5-yr

3.87

7-yr

4.03

10-yr

4.20

C hg ( bps )

So urce : B lo o mberg

Daily Trades Government Bonds

MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
GII
GII
GII
GII
GII
GII
GII
GII
GII
GII
GII
GII
SPK

7/16
2/17
9/17
10/17
2/18
3/18
9/18
7/19
11/19
3/20
7/20
10/20
7/21
9/21
9/22
3/23
7/24
9/25
9/26
3/27
5/27
4/30
4/33
9/43
7/15
7/15
2/16
7/16
11/16
8/20
7/22
10/25
6/27
12/28
9/30
8/33
7/22

Closing
YTM

Vol
(RM mil)

Previous
YTM

3.117
3.295
3.327
3.276
3.430
3.409
3.484
3.582
3.635
3.626
3.678
3.608
3.748
3.781
3.795
3.912
3.958
3.895
4.050
4.050
4.050
4.031
4.191
4.605
3.075
3.123
3.189
3.343
3.368
3.702
3.887
3.996
4.200
4.151
4.200
4.265
4.009

38
17
11
55
50
5
12
0
19
1
1
325
29
20
81
20
143
70
4
5
9
2
23
27
20
170
528
0
50
20
90
384
7
3
9
4
10
2262

3.187
3.292
3.277
3.288
3.367
3.409
3.463
3.584
3.622
3.649
3.645
3.569
3.739
3.785
3.740
3.874
3.887
3.854
4.073
4.041
4.056
4.035
4.157
4.568
3.120
3.052
3.163
3.244
3.311
3.689
3.861
3.980
4.109
4.142
4.148
4.288
4.005

Source : BPAM

UST yields eased, paring some of its earlier losses. With UST
yields edging higher this week versus lower yields of German
bunds and Japanese government bonds, interest seen flowing
back to UST for relative higher yields. Meanwhile initial jobless
claims came in lower than expected. Expect tonights release of
non-farm payroll as key watch for investors at large. Prospects of
lower than expected job gains could again lend support for UST.

MGS

* M arket indicative levels

Securities

US Treasuries

Previous
Trade Date
(dd/mm/yyyy)
06/05/2015
05/05/2015
06/05/2015
06/05/2015
05/05/2015
06/05/2015
05/05/2015
06/05/2015
06/05/2015
06/05/2015
06/05/2015
06/05/2015
06/05/2015
06/05/2015
06/05/2015
06/05/2015
06/05/2015
06/05/2015
04/03/2015
06/05/2015
05/05/2015
06/05/2015
06/05/2015
06/05/2015
27/04/2015
06/05/2015
05/05/2015
27/04/2015
06/05/2015
06/05/2015
06/05/2015
06/05/2015
01/04/2015
06/05/2015
05/05/2015
05/05/2015
05/05/2015

Local govvies saw profit taking yesterday, sending benchmark

yields higher. Investors seen taking profit from weeks of gains
seen for MYR govvies ahead of BNM MPC meeting. As widely
expected, BNM maintained the OPR unchanged at 3.25%,
reinforcing views of a rate pause. Total volume traded in MYR
govvies was over RM2.2b. Focus continue to skew towards MGS
10/20 with RM325m traded with levels closing 4 bps higher at
3.61%. Meanwhile in the GII segment, we saw GII 10/25 traded
at 3.99-4.00% with RM384m changing hands. Expect all eyes to
shift towards US non-farm payrolls release and US
unemployment data.

Chg
(bp)
-7
0
5
-1
6
0
2
0
1
-2
3
4
1
0
5
4
7
4
-2
1
-1
0
3
4
-4
7
3
10
6
1
3
2
9
1
5
-2
0

PDS/Sukuk
In the PDS space, trading volume was over RM686m done. We
saw good amount traded for DanaInfra 24 with RM70m changing
hands, with levels ending on biddish tone to close at 4.27%.
Meanwhile in the AAA space, we saw Cagamas MBS 8/15
traded with RM32m crossed, with levels ending 1 bp inside.
Danga Capital 20 saw RM40m traded. In the AA space, we saw
Bright Focus 31 traded flat at 5.92% with RM50m dealt. Other
notable trades include BGSM 22 and 24 seen traded with
combined volume of RM41m done.

Daily Trades: PDS / Sukuk

Securities

Prasarana Malaysia Berhad

DanaInfra Nasional Berhad
Prasarana Malaysia Berhad
DanaInfra Nasional Berhad
DanaInfra Nasional Berhad
Aquasar Capital Sdn Berhad
Cagamas MBS Berhad
Cagamas Berhad
Gulf Investment Corporation G.S.C
Rantau Abang Capital Berhad
Danga Capital Berhad
Genting Capital Berhad
Projek Lebuhraya Usahasama Berhad
Malaysia Airports Capital Berhad
Projek Lebuhraya Usahasama Berhad
Projek Lebuhraya Usahasama Berhad
Public Bank Berhad
Public Islamic Bank Berhad
Sarawak Energy Berhad
Sarawak Energy Berhad
CIMB Bank Berhad
CIMB Bank Berhad
Westports Malaysia Sdn Berhad
Hong Leong Bank Berhad
Hong Leong Bank Berhad
Hong Leong Bank Berhad
Mukah Power Generation Sdn Berhad
Bright Focus Berhad
Bright Focus Berhad
Anih Berhad
BGSM Management Sdn Berhad
Eversendai Corporation Berhad
Jimah Energy Ventures Sdn Berhad
RHB Bank Berhad
BGSM Management Sdn Berhad
BGSM Management Sdn Berhad
Tanjung Bin Energy Issuer Berhad
IJM Corporation Berhad
UEM Sunrise Berhad
UEM Sunrise Berhad
Malakoff Power Berhad
UEM Sunrise Berhad

5/23
7/24
9/27
4/35
4/45
7/15
8/15
10/15
3/16
8/19
4/20
6/22
1/24
12/24
1/25
1/29
10/18
6/19
6/21
7/29
12/20
8/21
4/26
8/15
5/16
6/19
12/19
1/23
1/31
11/25
12/15
3/18
5/19
7/19
12/22
6/24
3/26
10/15
12/18
6/19
12/19
4/22

Rating

Closing
YTM

Vol
(RM mil)

Previous
YTM

GG
GG
GG
GG
GG
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AA1
AA1
AA1
AA1
AA+
AA+
AA+
AA2
AA2
AA2
AA2
AA2
AA2
AA
AA3
AA3
AA3
AA3
AA3
AA3
AA3
AAAAAAAAAA-

4.210
4.265
4.434
4.699
4.955
3.717
3.485
3.464
3.819
4.011
4.099
4.411
4.396
4.448
4.431
4.690
4.474
4.527
4.468
5.060
4.648
5.000
4.774
4.025
4.197
4.612
4.618
4.795
5.926
4.750
4.012
4.618
4.648
4.705
4.842
5.010
5.179
3.799
4.341
4.440
4.668
4.699

15
70
10
30
50
4
32
5
10
15
40
5
20
20
5
5
10
12
10
40
50
2
2
14
20
11
2
2
50
6
6
6
1
10
1
40
10
5
15
5
10
10
686

4.226
4.301
4.477
4.699
4.979
3.780
3.498
3.846
4.019
4.091
4.535
4.396
4.450
4.448
4.707
4.473
4.618
4.478
5.060
4.648
5.600
4.829
4.010
4.289
4.609
4.754
4.809
5.928
4.846
4.057
4.798
4.679
4.730
4.842
5.005
5.259
3.751
4.420
4.502
4.669
-

Previous
Trade Date
(dd/mm/yyyy)
20/04/2015
30/04/2015
15/04/2015
05/05/2015
23/04/2015
31/03/2015
06/05/2015
29/04/2015
30/04/2015
28/04/2015
21/04/2015
30/04/2015
30/04/2015
06/05/2015
21/04/2015
06/05/2015
19/03/2015
21/04/2015
29/04/2015
29/04/2015
30/04/2015
01/04/2015
06/05/2015
22/04/2015
05/05/2015
27/02/2015
20/04/2015
05/05/2015
11/03/2015
20/04/2015
07/01/2015
10/04/2015
28/04/2015
08/04/2015
20/04/2015
24/11/2014
15/04/2015
06/05/2015
19/03/2015
06/05/2015
-

Chg
(bp)
-2
-4
-4
0
-2
-6
-1
-3
-1
1
-12
0
0
-2
-2
0
-9
-1
0
0
-60
-5
2
-9
0
-14
-1
0
-10
-5
-18
-3
-3
0
0
-8
5
-8
-6
0
-

Spread
Against
IRS**
12
6
23
30
56
8
-15
-17
18
22
23
38
31
25
23
29
79
74
51
66
69
105
57
39
56
82
75
71
153
55
38
94
86
92
75
81
98
16
55
65
80
66

** spread against nearest indicative tenured IRS

Source : BPAM

Market/Corporate News: Whats Brewing

Malaysia Building Society Bhd (MBSB), which aims to become a full-fledged Islamic
bank, is said to be looking at Kuwait Finance House (M) Bhd (KFH Malaysia) as an
option for a merger exercise, sources say. According to banking sources, MBSB and its
major shareholder, the Employees Provident Fund (EPF), are looking at the foreign Islamic
bank from afar and currently studying its numbers. MBSB is looking at KFH Malaysia as
one option as the deal came to it for consideration. There are no formal talks between the
two financial institutions yet, the source clarified. KFH Malaysia is wholly-owned by Kuwaitbased Kuwait Finance House (KFH) and is the countrys first and largest foreign Islamic
lenders here. Reuters yesterday reported that KFH might sell some of its investments
including KFH Malaysia and has picked Credit Suisse to advise it on the matter. The report,
however, said that KFH did not provide any details such as a timeline or a potential sale
price of the unit. StarBiz reported last week that the appointment of KFH Malaysias new
chief executive officer and managing director, Ahmed S. Al Kharji, could be a precursor to a
corporate exercise such as a merger and acquisition (M&A). Al Kharji, a Kuwaiti whose
appointment took effect on April 20, is KFH Malaysias fourth CEO since it began operations
10 years ago. The bank had set up shop in Malaysia in 2005 under the liberalisation of the
Islamic banking industry, but has seen the going tough due to fierce competition. KFH

Malaysia has total assets of RM10.47bil as at financial year ended Dec 31, 2014. According
to its 2014 annual report, corporate and commercial financing are the major contributors to
the banks assets portfolio at 69%, while consumer is next at 31% as at the end of last year.
(Source : The Star)
SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd (SapKen) is poised to land two international jobs in
India and Mexico respectively totalling about RM1.5bil, according to a source close to
the deals. This development comes when the crude oil price has crossed US$60 per barrel
two days ago, the first time in nearly five months. The stock has been seeing some buying
interest, topping the active list. It closed seven sen or 2.55% higher to RM2.81 against a
lacklustre FTSE Bursa Malaysia KL Composite Index performance yesterday. For the India
job, SapKen may even edge out local-based Larsen & Toubro Ltd, as it has put in the lowest
bid among the four contenders interested in a portion of the Oil & Natural Gas Corps
Mumbai High South (MHS) phase three redevelopment project to the tune of US$200milUS$300mil. A source revealed that SapKens bid between US$273mil and US$291mil
would have an added advantage, especially with the recent oil and gas (O&G) industry
recovery. SapKens bid for the Indian contract was done via its wholly owned offshore
construction and subsea services arm, TL Offshore Sdn Bhd. Larsen & Toubro, Abu Dhabibased National Petroleum & Construction Co and US company McDermott have put in
higher bids of US$390mil, US$471mil and US$406mil, respectively. Besides likely
frontrunner Larsen & Toubro, SapKen may face stiff competition if Singapores Swiber
Holdings Ltd is successful in resubmitting its bid after it had failed to do so earlier due to
technical issues, according to reports by an Indian news agency. (Source : The Star)

Rating Actions
Issuer

PDS Description

Nil
Sources: RAM, MARC

Rating/Outlook

Action

Hong Leong Bank Berhad

Fixed Income & Economic Research, Global Markets
Level 6, Wisma Hong Leong
18, Jalan Perak
50450 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: 603-2773 0469
Fax: 603-2164 9305
Email: HLMarkets@hlbb.hongleong.com.my

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