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Time-value relationships
3. Evaluate or design
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maintenance,
infrastructure
requirements
and
replacement,
Acquisition cost
Operating cost
Maintenance cost
Repair costs
The concept of life cycle costs is the 'systematic analytical process of evaluating
various alternative courses of action with the objective of choosing the best way
to employ scarce resources'. The life cycle cost model is at the heart of the cost
projections used in the equipment selection model. The life cycle cost model
can be compiled based on a number of different approaches; either the British
Standard, BS5760 (BSJ 1983) or the SAE model (adapted) as illustrated in
Figure 8.1.
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is, however, not without its limitations. However, by using sound judgement
the effect of these limitations can be reduced.
The costs incurred by a mining company over the equipment life cycle are;
Operating costs (or expenses) are for such items as labour, utilities,
consumables and other supplies, and are deductible, in total, in the year of
occurrence. Costs are also treated as direct or indirect, with fixed or variable
cost components, depending on their relationship to coal production. It is
usual to consider maintenance and repair costs in this category also.
It is the estimation and analyses of these costs that form the basis of economic
analyses of equipment selection options and forms input to the mine planning
exercise.
8.1.2 Definitions and Techniques
In the planning, scheduling and controlling (not to mention budgeting) of
almost any mining project, all significant aspects or criteria of that project are
generally analysed, evaluated and compared with some other criterion or
alternative. Whatever can be meaningfully quantified, should be, since most
decision-makers find it easier to compare numbers (figures) than other
qualities. In order to quantify and compare such criteria, a common
denominator for most purposes is a monetary (Rand) value. For this reason,
and for the purpose of this Module, most of the significant criteria or attributes
of a project are reduced to a monetary value whenever possible.
Obviously, this monetary value will have different "values" over time - every
reasonably educated person knows that a Rand received "tomorrow" is not
equivalent to a Rand in hand "today".
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The two key concepts making up the time value of money are 'future value' and
'present value', each with their common derivatives. Future-value calculations
are needed to evaluate future amounts resulting from current investments in
some benefit-bearing (interest) medium. They are also useful in determining
interest or growth rates of future money streams. Present-value calculations
are inversely related to future value. They are used to assess the current value
of a project or an investment with all of the future costs and benefits expected
to result from certain actions today.
BASIC DEFINITIONS
Inflation
Inflation is the decrease in purchasing power of a currency with time. It refers
to the change in price of a "basket" or group of items over time. The most
common measure is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is a weighted index
of prices of common commodities purchased. Inflation indices are also
published for many other baskets of commodities. Inflation depreciates the
value of money over time, since in an inflationary environment the same
amount of cash will not purchase the same amount of goods in the future.
The CPI is indexed at 100 at a specific time and expressed relative to this base
in future periods. Equivalent annual inflation rates can be calculated from
monthly CPI's. For example, a change in CPI's from 112.8 to 113.6 respectively
indicates an increase of 0.8 on 112.8, or 0.71% for one month. The annual rate
is thus;
Escalation
When the rate of inflation quoted for categories of project cost differs from that
obtained using the CPI, that difference is termed escalation. For example, if the
general inflation rate is 8.8% and an escalation rate of 5% is applicable to
capital expenditures (CAPEX), the specific inflation rate to be applied to CAPEX
items is thus 1.088 x 1.05= 1.1424 or 14.24%.
Interest
It is the price paid for the use of (someone else's) money. Economic theory
considers two components; an "originary" component which represents the
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difference between the present values of present and future goods, and an
"entrepreneurial" component which represents the uncertainty element as to
whether the money is likely to be repaid or not. Hence a Rand today is (likely to
be) more valuable than a Rand received in a year's time.
Real Interest Rate
Reflects the price paid for use of money over and above the amount paid just to
keep up to inflation. Obtained by adjusting the nominal interest rate (quoted
interest rate) for the rate of inflation. For example, if the nominal interest rate
on a loan is 15% and inflation is 8.8%, then the real interest rate is;
by the inflation rate to give a value at a specific time. When the impact of
inflation is considered, the decision on the feasibility of a project may differ
from that made on current money basis.
The concepts of present value (PV) and future value (FV) are used to estimate
the effect of time on a value or item.
Future Value Determines the value of present value at some point n years into
the future, as a function of inflation i;
synonymously with net present value). The sum total of these discounted
amounts is the Net Present Value (NPV). Developing a DCF involves estimating
a project's cash flows, discounting these cash flows at the company's required
rate of return (cost of capital) and subtracting the PV cost of the investment
from the sum of cash flow PVs. For revenue generating investments, the
investment with the highest positive NPV is the preferred option, whilst for
non-revenue generating applications, the investment with the lowest negative
NPV will be preferred.
NPV is determined by;
where ;
i
= cost of capital
CF t
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From the above example, although both pieces of equipment have the same
total annual net cash flows (R15M), and both cost the same to purchase
(R1OM), it is seen that the best investment decision, based on NPV, is to
purchase Equipment A, due to the higher NPV. This results from the higher
annual net cash flows that occur earlier in the life of the equipment than those
associated with Equipment B.
The financial evaluation of various investment possibilities, as illustrated in
simple terms above, is an integral part of the capital budgeting process. It is
necessary to establish, firstly, whether proposed investment projects are
financially viable in terms of capital budgeting criteria and, secondly, whether
it merits inclusion in the capital budget in terms of financial strategy.
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The decision criteria for using the NPV as a decision tool are the following;
Accept all independent projects with a positive NPV (NPV > 0).
Reject all independent projects with a negative NPV (NPV < 0).
Note that the NPV is an absolute amount of money. How is the NPV interpreted
as a criterion for decisions on investment possibilities? In short, what does the
NPV mean in this context? For a project with NPV = 0, it means that the given
cash flow of the project, discounted at the cost of capital, is exactly enough to
redeem or recover the total investment amount in addition to the financing cost
A positive NPV (NPV > 0) means that the initial investment amount and the
financing cost (as well as additional value) are obtained from the cash flows of
the project.
A negative NPV (NPV < 0) implies that the cash flows of a project, discounted at
a predetermined discount rate or cost of capital, are insufficient to redeem the
initial investment and the financing cost involved.
The net present value method is an excellent capital budgeting technique as
the result, the NPV, is the absolute amount by which the value of the
undertaking is increased or decreased by the project. Other decision criteria
used to evaluate the financial viability of projects include also;
together with numerous other measures not discussed here, such as the
profitability index and the equivalent annual cost.
However, note that when applying the different evaluation techniques to rank
projects in order of preference, conflict may arise when ranking mutually
exclusive projects. The conflict is due to the inherent assumptions and
differences between the various techniques. When one of the following
conditions apply, particular care should be taken when ranking projects;
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Differences in the initial investment (capital outlay) required for the different
projects
Payback Period
The time required (n years) to payback a sum of money, including the loan sum
and the interest charged. Using the annuity factor equation and assuming
R10M is borrowed today subject to an annual repayment of R1.5M and an
inflation rate of 10%, the payback period can be found iteratively such that
(NPV = 0) as given in Table 8.2.
Table 8.2 Payback period iterations for NPV = 0
For the two pieces of equipment evaluated in Table 8.1, by using the NPV
equation to solve for n years, payback periods for equipment A and B are 4.23
yrs and 4.68 yrs respectively. Thus equipment A pays for itself sooner than
equipment B.
Internal Rate of Return
This is the interest rate (or return on an investment ROI) which makes the
future worth's equal and is determined from the NPV equation, in this case
solving for i. Using the previous example, but in this case investing R10M on a
piece of equipment that generates R1.75M profit after tax each year over 10
years, the rate of return is found by setting the NPV of payments and
investment equal to zero at time n = 0;
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I.e;
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The decision criteria for the IRR as a decision tool are the following;
All independent projects of which the IRR is higher than the cost of capital
are acceptable. The project will, in addition to the recovery of the investment
and financing costs, offer an additional return.
This corresponds to a NPV > 0
Reject projects of which the IRR is lower than the cost of capital (required
rate of return or opportunity rate of return). The total capital outlay and
financing costs are not recovered and such a project would not be an
economic proposition.
This corresponds to a NPV < 0.
Mere the IRR is the same as the cost of capital, only the initial investment
and associated financing costs are recovered and no additional return or
value is obtained.
This corresponds to a NPV = 0.
Discount Rate
Theoretically, the discount rate is just another form of the interest rate i - only
expressed as the amount that future cash flows must be discounted to be
valued equally as if they were received today. The common usage of the term
discount rate refers to the rate that a company seeks to obtain from its future
cash (inflows) to balance the cash out-flow necessary at the start of the project.
In this sense, the discount rate applied is invariably higher than typical
interest rates because;
if the company has limited funds, the rate must be at least as high as other
rates from alternate investments.
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8.1.3 Cash Flows and DCF Tabulations for Equipment Selection and
Costing
A cash flow, when used to determine or compare equipment investment options
accommodates;
following year, two more trucks are purchased for R5M and the revenue earned
increases to R8M, thereafter R10M and R12M for the remaining years.
Operating costs (OPEX) are R3M in the first year of production, increasing to
R4M in the following years. The cash flow schedule is given in Table 8.4.
Table 8.4 Example cash flow schedule
If the cash flow is discounted at 10%, the NPV is R19.61M and as such the
project acceptable.
In the above simple example, CAPEX is not depreciated but is redeemed
(claimed) against profits made. This is one of several protocols for dealing with
depreciation.
Depreciation
The process whereby the capitalised cost of an asset, such as a piece of
equipment, is recovered in a manner determined by the local tax authority.
Periods over which assets may be depreciated, and the methods of doing so,
are prescribed by the tax authority. This a periodic cost allocation which may
be offset against income to reduce taxable income and thereby reduce tax paid.
It is not itself a cash outflow. For example, an asset costing R5M and
depreciated in equal amounts over seven years will have the cash flow shown
in Table 8.5.
Taxable earnings are equal to earnings less depreciation, and this reduction in
tax payable is referred to as a tax benefit or tax shield. The reduction in tax
payable and consequent increase in net earnings after tax to influences the
NPV and ROI/IRR.
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At the end of its useful life, an asset may still possess a residual or salvage
value. The difference between initial cost and salvage value is the amount
which is allowed for depreciation over the estimated useful life. If the asset is
disposed of before the end of its depreciation (useful) life, then the income from
that sale at their written-down value is regarded as a revenue in the year of
disposal.
There are several permissible methods of depreciation, the most common of
which are;
Straight Line Depreciation - this is the most common method in which the
difference between initial and residual values is written off in equal amounts
over the useful life.
The only difference caused to cash flows by the different methods is in timing
and not in total sum. In an inflationary period, the timing can make a large
difference to the NPV of the cost of owning the asset.
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The revenue is in fact the cost (to pay for) a unit quantity of production (be
it drilled meters, BCM, tons coal, etc.). The cost which, when applied to the
production, yields a cash flow giving an NPV = 0 when discounted at the
required ROI is the discounted average cost of the production. This cost is
then used as a basis to compare equipment options, etc., the lowest cost
being selected as the optimal choice.
As with a conventional DCF, the preparation of the DCF for the above situation
requires determination of;
Operating costs
The details associated with the description and determination of these costs
will be presented in the next sections of the Module, but at this stage, assumed
costs will be used to illustrate the technique.
Tables 8.6 and 8.7 illustrate the application of the technique to two load and
haul fleet options being considered for a five year earthmoving contract. In this
example, depreciation is set at a percentage of the book value of the assets and
the equipment sold at their residual values on completion of the contract.
The cost per ton (R3,40 and R2,90 in Tables 8.6 and 8.7 respectively) which
dictates the revenue earned based on production tonnages per year, is
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determined by trial and error such that the sum of NPVs is zero at the selected
discount rate for the project.
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Table 8.6 Example discounted average cost method of analysis fleet option (1)
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Table 8.7 Example discounted average cost method of analysis fleet option (2)
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at the prescribed discount rate. For the investment to be attractive, the annuity
must be of a minimum duration, which is the minimum acceptable life of the
asset.
Table 8.8 Equipment equivalent annual costs
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Rules and formulae. Text books and hand books have some formulae but
these are often too generalised and are more geared to the American market
For these to be used successfully, the local cost factors are required - and
these are not simply an exchange rate correction, but must also consider
relative cost of parts, labours, fuel, etc.
When attempting to use or corroborate costs from several sources listed above,
there are often inconsistencies which make the selection of a representative
cost figure somewhat qualitative. These discrepancies arise due to variable job
condition factors, quality of maintenance, location, mine accounting practices,
or abnormally high or low costs at a particular mine which are not fully
reported or benchmarked across the industry. This results in the necessity for
using a systematic approach to cost estimation. The advantages and
importance of determining costs from first principles and then crosschecking
them are;
Costs can be developed for any mining equipment, not just equipment
already in use on the mine site
A cost data base, the components of which are illustrated in Figure 8.2, is the
starting point for an economic analysis. Figure 8.3 shows how the relevant
elements in the cost base feed into the economic analysis model of a mine, a
significant component of which is the equipment selection and costing aspect.
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Figure 8.2 Cost base for cash flow development, some elements pertaining
to equipment costing.
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Figure 8.3 Flow chart of general mine costing procedure, showing role of
equipment selection and costing
8.3.1 Estimating Cost of Ownership
To protect equipment investment and be able to replace or recoup equipment
value, the mine must recover over the machine's useful life an amount equal to
the loss in resale value plus the other costs of owning the equipment including
interest, insurance, freight and taxes.
If mine can estimate the loss of value on resale in advance, the original
equipment investment is recovered by establishing depreciation schedules
according to the various uses of the equipment. Proper financial and tax
assistance is a necessity when establishing depreciation schedules and
allowances. Considering economic conditions and the trend toward larger,
more expensive equipment, many mines choose to keep large equipment
working well after they have been fully depreciated for tax purposes. On the
other hand, tax incentives in many areas may favour trading a machine well
before it approaches the limits of its operating life.
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ripping,
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Ownership costs can be established using several methods. The first technique
involves calculating the sum of the straight line depreciation and a percentage
of the annual average investment to cover interest taxes, insurance and other
ownership cost items. Table 8.11 shows a typical example calculation.
An alternative approach is to treat the equipment as if it were being leased.
Lease rates include all of the factors in Table 8.11 but more correctly account
for the higher interest component of the cost earlier in the equipment life. This
allows a capital recovery factor to be calculated when the capital PV is spread
over the period of ownership years and produces a series of equal values
occurring at the end of each year for the period specified. Table 8.12 shows the
calculation for the equivalent annual cost (EAC) approach.
Table 8.11 Determination of cost of ownership - annual average
investment method
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Assign a life or utilisation to each component part and calculate the hourly
cost.
Total all the components to achieve the total hourly operating cost.
Deriving costs from first principals is certainly the most reliable method.
However, determining the costs and life for all components in a machine is
quite time consuming and it is often difficult to get accurate information. To
overcome this problem, a set of factors or formulae can be used to describe, in
general terms, the conditions under which a piece of equipment is operating.
Overall job conditions can be classified into the three main categories described
earlier, but attention should be given to the critical role of;
Utilisation factors such as the annual operating hours, average engine load
factors
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Table 8.14 Equipment average load factors multipliers for various job
conditions, based on moderate conditions = 1,00
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Using Table 8.14 and Figure 8.4, for a haul truck with a 1500kW engine,
operating under severe conditions, the hourly fuel consumption is thus 75 x 2
= 150 litres per hour.
For equipment using electric power, consumption is subdivided into an "energy
component" as well as a "demand" component which reflects the required
installed capacity of the power generation facility or transmission system. This
demand charge comes about because of the cyclical loads of most mining
machines and the electricity authority must be able to supply high power for
short periods of time. Equipment suppliers can supply this information.
For quick estimates, the average power for a shovel is 0.6kW per cubic metre
per hour and 1.5kW per cubic metre per hour for a dragline. For a large mine
with a large number of electrical items of plant the demand charge can be
assumed to be similar to the energy charge. If, however there is only one item
of plant this is not reasonable as the diversification is much less and the effect
of peaks are much more pronounced. Demand is typically 2-2.5 the average
power.
LUBRICATION AND FILTER COSTS
If no detailed lubrication charges are available they can be calculated as a
percentage of the hourly fuel cost These proportions range from 15% for
equipment with a relatively low proportion of hydraulic components up to 3040% for equipment with a high proportion of hydraulic components (such as a
hydraulic excavator). Adjustments may be made to these figures depending on
how severe the duty is, heavy dust, deep mud or water typically increase
quantities by 25%. For filters, the proportion ranges from 10-30% depending
on size and hydraulic complexity of the equipment.
Alternatively the consumption rate can be expressed as either litres/hour or
kg/hour which can be obtained from manufacturers or operational records.
These are then multiplied by their appropriate unit cost. This is obviously a
more accurate method and is possibly the only method for equipment such as
draglines which consume substantial quantities of lubricants but no fuel oil.
Table 8.15 presents generalised data for lubricant costing.
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primary
conditions
affect
probable
life-expectancy
of
track-type
undercarriage;
To estimate the hourly undercarriage cost, use a manufacturers basic cost and
multiply it by the sum of the condition factors given in Table 8.18.
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WEAR PARTS
Wear parts are often referred to as operating supplies or ground engaging tools
(GET). They include high-wear items such as bucket teeth, ripper boots, drill
bits, cutting edges, wear plates and liners, etc. (and also welding costs on
booms and sticks). These are usually separately itemised as they are directly
related to the ground conditions. An approximate method is to take a factor of
the capital cost which is the same logic such as for maintenance supplies.
Table 8.20 summarises the various wear parts factors.
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MAJOR OVERHAULS
Major overhauls, as distinct from routine maintenance or repair supplies,
covers the cost of major component exchange or rebuild. This can be estimated
as a percentage of initial capital cost or as a build up of components and their
life. For example, a truck could be subdivided into engine, transmission, body,
frame, electrical and so on. The cost of each of these major components (or the
cost of rebuilding them) can then be estimated with the estimated life. This
gives a standard cost per hour even though the actual expenditure may only
occur when the damage or rebuild is implemented. A typical example of
overhauls is 15% of capital cost every 10,000 hours.
OPERATING LABOUR
In allocating the cost of operating labour to a piece of equipment, a number of
factors need to be established to determine the labour cost;
The availability of equipment.
Unavailable mobile equipment is normally not manned, whereas large fixed or
semi-mobile production equipment is manned even when it is unavailable. For
example, dragline and drills are typically manned continually even when they
are on maintenance or broken down. Conversely, if there are 10 trucks in the
fleet and the expected availability is 80% then normally only 8 trucks are
manned. This is referred to as the "operator ratio" - the number of persons per
operating shift required to man up the machines. As such, this ratio can take
into account:
The shift roster.
To determine the operating labour requirement per shift.
Ancillary personnel.
Equipment support personnel also needs to be incorporated. Typically, a
person who is on the machine at all times even though there is only one
operator required to physically operate the machine. For example, a dragline
requires an operator and an electrical and/or mechanical (oiler) assistant.
Level of absenteeism.
Although not a direct extra staff appointment is required to cover absenteeism,
the level of absenteeism should be incorporated into the cost of operating
labour. It can also incorporate scheduled leave days.
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As an example, if a rope shovel needs two operators costing R50 000 per year,
working three shifts per day, for 18 hours over 357 days per year. If the shovel
is manned on service days and absenteeism runs at 20% then, the hourly cost
can be calculated as;
3 x 2 x R50,000 x 1.20/18 x 357 = R56 per hour
The cost of labour should be on a total cost of employment basis, including pay
rates, bonuses plus all additional costs such as pensions, medical, insurance,
etc.
MAINTENANCE LABOUR
The simplest method is to determine the maintenance ratio for the particular
piece of equipment, which is the ratio of workshop-man hours required per
machine operating hour.
These ratios can be determined by back calculation from the maintenance
repair costs per machine per operating hour. The ratio changes with the duty of
the machine and obviously job conditions Table 8.21 shows various
maintenance ratios for surface mining equipment operating under average site
conditions, with an indication of the typical parts and labour ratios.
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Table 8.21 Maintenance ratio factors (per operating hour) and parts and
labour ratios
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