Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Ankara, Turkey
Keywords. Reliability function under preventive maintenance, Probability distribution, Financial means, Operational Research, Manufacturing Services, Economics
1 Fortune Institute of International Business, New Delhi 110057 India, +91-9650691133, email:
sadiasamarali@gmail.com
2 Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Yeditepe University, Turkey, email:
rdmklc@gmail.com
3 Institute of Applied Mathematics, Middle East Technical University, Turkey
4 Symbiosis Institute of Operations Management, Nashik, India
Introduction
can be improved through maintenance actions like leaning, lubrication, and realignment, etc., short replacement. Juang and Gary [21] considered a theoretic
Bayesian approach to determine an optimal adaptive preventive maintenance policy with minimal repair. When the failure density is Weibull with uncertain parameters, a Bayesian approach is established to formally express and update the
uncertain parameters for determining an optimal adaptive preventive maintenance
policy. Chelbi and Ait-Kadi [12] considered a repairable production unit subject
to random failures, which supplies input to a subsequent assembly line, operating
according to a just-in-time configuration. Preventive maintenance actions are regularly performed on the production unit at instants T, 2T, 3T, . . . . The corrective
and preventive maintenance actions have random durations.
Lifeng et al. [26] tries to integrate a sequential imperfect maintenance policy into
condition-based predictive maintenance (CBPM). A reliability-centered predictive
maintenance policy is proposed for a continuously monitored system subject to
degradation due to the imperfect maintenance. It is assumed that the system hazard
rate is a known function of the system condition and then can be derived directly
through CBPM.
Currit and Singpurwalla [17] explored the reliability function of a system of components sharing a common environment. Kolowrocki [24] has a given concept for
reliability function of a homogenous series such as parallel-parallel and parallelseries system. Barlow and Hunter [4] worked on optimum preventive maintenance
polices and Juang and Gary [21] used Bayesian method on adoptive preventive
maintenance problem.
Bloch-Mercier [10] analysed sequential checking procedure for checking procedure of markov deteriorating system. Kong and Frangopol [25]; Vassiliadis and
Pislikopoulos [31] used maintenance scheduling and process optimization under in
environment of uncertainty. Blanchard et al. [9], Blanchard and Fabrycky [8] and
Abdel-Hameed [1] focus many concepts on maintainability and their applications
for effective serviceability and maintenance. Clroux et al. [14] explored the age
replacement problem with minimal repair costs. The techniques of optimal number
of minimal repairs before replacement discussed by Park [27]. Many models have
been analysed for product quality with warranty cost by Chen [13]. Kackar [22] explored Taguchis quality philosophy, analysed with different cases and commented
on each cases. The problem of strength-reliability of the equipment defined as the
probability that the strength of equipment exceeds the stress, instead of finding
P(X > Y ) for a given set of distribution and found the required parametric values
of the assumed distributions to achieve a desired level of strength reliability. Samar
Ali and Kannan [29] and Alam and Roohi [2] assumed exponential strength and
exponential stress for this purpose. Alternatives for augmenting the exponential
strength-reliability have been suggested against the exponential distributed stress.
As an illustrative example we discuss the relevance of reliability in the context
of a manufacturer and dealer contracting model with asymmetric information related to the proposed model by Blair and Lewis [7] in the Sections 5 and 6. The
3
dealer is providing maintenance services which increase the reliability in his economic transactions. He has full-information about the maintenance services and
the related maintenance costs. On contrary, the dealer does not have exact knowledge about the final realization of the maintenance costs. The remainder of the
article is organized as follows. Section 2 analyzes the reliability for exponential
distribution under preventive maintenance. Section 3 introduces the reliability for
the power function distribution under preventive maintenance. Then, Section 4
presents reliability under preventive maintenance for other life-time distributions.
Section 5 introduces a model for optimal retail contracts under asymmetric information. Whereas, Section 6 presents the illustration about dynamics of optimal
contracts. Finally, Section 7 concludes and gives an outlook to future studies.
It is well-known that exponential distribution has constant failure rate and this is
the characteristics property of it. Now we consider the case of reliability under
preventive maintenance of equipment following exponential distribution [20]; [16];
[18]; [11]. If the probability density function (pdf) of failure time T is given by
f (t) = et
(t > 0) ,
(1)
(t > 0) .
(2)
(nT t (n + 1)T ) .
Here, R(t) and Rn (t) be the reliability of a system without maintenance and with
maintenance respectively (n N0 ).
We find reliability of that equipment with regular preventive maintenance at time
T, 2T, 3T, ..., is given by
RN (t) =
e T
n
e (tnT )
for nT t (n + 1) T.
We note that this definition does not depend on the number of preventive maintenance. Therefore, we conclude that preventive maintenance does not improve the
reliability of equipment having an exponential failure distribution. We present and
prove a main important result stated in the form of a theorem.
Theorem 2.1 Preventive maintenance does not improve the reliability of an equipment or system if it has a constant failure rate.
Proof Let us suppose that the reliability does not improve after preventive maintenance or mean time to failure (MTTF) is constant with respect to maintenance
after any regarded time T , i.e.,
T
MTTF =
R (t) dt
=
1 R (T )
0
or
R (t) dt = (1 R ( T )) .
0
1
,
T
+ c.
Therefore,
R ( T ) = e(T /) + c
T 0,
n
o n
o
et /
T /
T /
=
e
/
1
e
=,
1 eT /
This proves the theorem.
MTTF =
ka t a
(0 t k) ,
ka
Hence,
a a
nT a
nT
nT
nT a
=
a > 0;
1 a > 1
k
k
k
k
thus,
na n > 0 ,
a > 1.
This means that preventive maintenance will improve the reliability of the power
function system, if a 1. It simply means that for a < 1, preventive maintenance
may not be useful. To get a better insight into this result, Tables 2.1-2.4 present
RM (t), the reliability with maintenance for selected values of a. Without loss of
generality, we assume k =1, doing a normalization otherwise.
Table 2.1. R (t) and RM (t); T=0.25, a=0.5.
t
0.1
0.25
0.3
0.4
R (t)
0.6838 0.5000 0.4523 0.3675
RM (t)
0.6838 0.5000 0.3882 0.3064
Table 2.2. R (t) and RM (t); T=0.25, a=1.
t
0.1 0.2 0.25 0.3
0.4
R (t)
0.9 0.8 0.75 0.7
0.6
RM (t)
0.9 0.8 0.75 0.7125 0.6375
0.5
0.2929
0.2500
0.5
0.5
0.5635
0.6
0.2254
0.1709
0.6
0.4
0.5063
0.75
0.1339
0.1250
0.8
0.1056
0.0970
0.9
0.0513
0.0766
1
0
0.625
0.75
0.25
0.45
0.8
0.2
0.4008
0.9
0.1
0.3586
1
0
0.3164
0.5
0.64
0.8789
0.5
0.875
0.9689
0.6
0.51
0.8701
0.6
0.784
0.9680
0.75
0.44
0.8438
0.75
0.578
0.9612
0.8
0.36
0.8219
0.8
0.488
0.9537
In this section we derive the expression for the maintenance reliability for different
life-time-distributions.
In order
to see the effect of preventive maintenance, we have to find the values
RM (t) R (t) at the time of preventive maintenance t = nT :
h
i
T
exp
n
RM (nT )
h
=
i > 1 > 1.
R (nT )
exp nT
This means that the preventive method is effective for the Weibull system, if for
the shape parameter it holds > 1.
0.9
0.19
0.8054
0.9
0.271
0.9506
1
0
0.7724
1
0
0.9389
2
where , > 0. There is no closed-form solution for the normal reliability function. Solutions can be obtained via the use of standard normal tables. Thus,
t
R (t) = 1
.
T
Reliability under preventive maintenance is represented by
T n
t nT
1
.
RM (t) = 1
T
T
t 1
()
(t 0) ,
where 0.
Here, is the shape parameter, and is the Gamma function given by the relation
(a) =
t a1 e1 dt.
0
There is no closed form of reliability function for the Gamma distribution also.
Thus, the reliability function is given by
R (t ) = 1
t ()
()
(t 0),
with some > 0. Here, t (a) is an incomplete Gamma function defined by relation
t
t a1 et dt.
t (a) =
0
We can obtain the solutions using the table of incomplete Gamma Distribution
introduced by Pearson [28].
Reliability under preventive maintenance for Gamma distribution is defined as
T () n
t+nT ()
RM (t) = 1
1
()
()
(t 0) .
This section gives an illustrative operative example for optimal contracts with incorporation of maintenance costs under asymmetric information. We analyze the
effect of asymmetric information on the price and the quantity of a sale product,
resulting from the agent problem evolving between the retailer and the manufacturer, when incorporating the (optimal) maintenance costs or reliability in a broader
sense. The manufacturer produces a sale product at constant unit costs. The retailer
or manufacturer sells the product on the market while he provides promotion and
additional customer services, such as maintenance of a product and consumer education. We focus on a single retailer within a monopoly framework to exclude the
agent problem from externalities.
The manufacturer determines the price of the product but he is not informed about
the exact market demand. The retailer has knowledge about the market demand
and the promotional services. The quantity of the sale product is derived by the
market demand. The retailer or dealer takes in account the repair costs prior to his
sale; he anticipates to replace the repair costs with the maintenance costs. Given
this consideration the determination of the optimal contract under asymmetric information plays a key role. The likelihood of an optimal contract is described in the
cases when maintenance costs evolve according to the certain dynamics. As main
factors we can mention the life-time utility of a product and the negotiated price in
the contract. So, the contract evolves according to dynamics of maintenance costs,
the probable life-time distribution of the product and the products price effects.
The optimal quantity is a consequence resulting from the mentioned dynamics.
d (1 F(Rt ))
0.
dRt
f (Rt )
(3)
The joint profit for the manufacturer and the dealer is defined as follows J (Q, p) =
pQ X (p, Q, Rt ), where the function is strictly concave in p and Q:
2 J
> 0.
Q p
(MC)
The promotional services provided by the dealer include customer services, such
as maintenance costs, free delivery, installation and repair services. The degree of
maintenance can be presumed as reliability. The endogenous reliability is defined
by R (t) = et (t > 0). It states the dynamic under which the maintenance improves the reliability of a manufacturing system or of an equipment.
The dealer reports the manufacturer his maintenance services which we denote
here as reliability Rt . The dealer pays a fee A to the manufacturer which is the
franchise fee. The dealer has the right to offer a contract that the manu-facturer
either accepts or rejects. The additional profit comes from the information rent
that the dealer obtains from the knowledge about Rt which is not observable by the
manufacturer.
Then, the optimization process evolves according to the market demand and supply functions and the preferences of the dealer. The dealer has the incentive to
have a good measure of reliability, so he tries various reliability distributions as
benchmarks for the density function of R. His maximization problem is described
as
0
0
0
0
d (Rt |Rt ) = max 0 p(Rt )Q X p(Rt ), Q, Rt A(Rt ) .
(4)
QQ(Rt )
(P1)
(P2)
XpR , XQR = 0 .
(P3)
In cases (P1) and (P2), the marginal rate of substitution depends on both price and
quantity level.
10
RH
A(Rt )dR ,
maximize
RL
subject to
d (Rt |Rt ) 0 ,
(IR)
(IC)
(SC)
The necessary and sufficient conditions for implementing retail incentive contracts
are represented by (SC).
The individual rationality (IR) condition stipulates that the dealer must earn at least
his reservation profit. (IC) is an incentive compatibility constraint, which implies
that the dealer maximizes her profits when he truthfully reports Rt in accord with
the revelation principle. The sales constraints (SC) indicates that the dealer cannot
be induced to sell more than the profit-maximizing level.
Lemma 1. Necessary and sufficient conditions for implementing retail incentive
contracts are SC and
RH
(i) (Rt ) =
(X ) d Rt ,
11
for case
(P1),
for case
(P2).
RH
R
(XR )d Rt .
RH
maximize
p(Rt ), Q(Rt )
subject to (SC),
where h(Rt ) = (1 F(Rt ))/ f (Rt ).
(M)
Proposition 1. Given condition (P1) (XpRt , XQRt > 0), the solution to (M)0
involves
(i) price ceilings with p(Rt ) pJ (Q(Rt ), Rt ) p (Rt )
(ii) quantity rationing with Q(Rt ) QJ (p(Rt ), Rt ) Q (Rt )
for
for
Rt < RH,t ,
Rt < RH,t .
for
for
Rt < RH,t ,
Rt < RH,t .
We know that maintenance plays an important role in reliability theory and it increases the life-time of an item or system at lower cost. In the above discussion,
the preventive maintenance effect on different time distributions has been investigated. In this paper, we have shown that preventive maintenance affects different
life-time distributions. The preventive method is effective for the Weibull system,
if for the shape parameter it holds > 1 and for Normal distribution, while for
Gamma distribution no general comments are possible.
13
We present an example where reliability in the form of maintenance costs is subject to asymmetric information. Price, quantity and market demand relationship
are incorporated in a dynamic framework which analyzes the maintenance costs as
a policy variable. The outcome is determined according to quantity rationing and
price policies.
As a further setting of the model, different markets can be chosen by analyzing the
different price setting strategies and consumer behavior in relation to maintenance
costs or to reliability in general. In addition, applications of stochastic differential
equations or stochastic hybrid systems can be considered to obtain more insight
information about the model dynamics.
References
[1] M. Abdel-Hameed, Inspection and maintenance policies of devices subject to
deterioration, Advances in Applied Probability, 10, 4, (1987), 917-1031.
[2] S.N. Alam and Roohi, On augmenting exponential strength reliability;
IAPQR Transactions, 27, (2002), 111-117.
[3] A. Azarona, H. Katagiria, M. Sakawaa, M. Modarres, Reliability function of a
class of time-dependent systems with standby redundancy, European Journal
of Operational Research , 164, 2, (2005) 378-386.
[4] R.E. Barlow and L.C. Hunter, Optimum preventive maintenance policies, Operations Research, 8, (1960), 90-100.
[5] R.E. Barlow; F. Proschan and L.C. Hunter, Mathematical Theory of Reliability; John Wiley & Sons, Inc, New York, 1965.
[6] A. Birolini, Quality and reliability of technical systems, Reliability IEEE
Transactions, 48, 2, (1999), 205-206.
[7] B.F. Blair and T.R. Lewis, Optimal retail contracts with asymmetric information and moral hazard, RAND Journal of Economics, 25, 3, (1994), 284-296.
[8] B.S. Blanchard and W. Fabrycky, Systems Engineering and Analysis, Prentice
Hall International Series in Industrial and Systems, 4th Edition, 2005.
[9] B.S. Blanchard and D. Verma, C. Peterson and L. Elmer, Maintainability: A Key to Effective Serviceability and Maintenance Management, WileyInterscience, 2nd Rev. Edition, 1995.
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15
Appendix
Proof of Lemma 1
A necessary condition for local incentive compatibility is
d, (Rt ) = 2d (Rt |Rt ) = XRt > 0 .
(A1)
16
(A2)
(A3)
(A4)
Total differentiation of (A3) with respect to Rt and employing (A4) implies that the
following is required:
d
d
d
0 11
= 12
= 21
= XRt ,p p0 (Rt ) + XRt Q Q0 (Rt ) .
(A5)
pJ (Q(Rt ), Rt ) = p1 (Q(Rt ), Rt ) as Q = Q .
<
(A6)
For case (P1), pJ , QJ > 0. Given the strict concavity of J and (A6), this implies that p(Rt ) < pJ (Q(Rt ), Rt ) and (p(Rt ), (Q(Rt )) lies at a point between the
pJ (Rt , Q(Rt )) and p1 (Rt , Q(Rt )) schedules. Hence, for case (P1), Q(Rt ) < Q and
17
p(Rt ) < p . To complete our proof, notice that Q(Rt ) < QJ (p(Rt ), Rt ) which verifies that (SC) is nonbinding as we originally asserted.
Proof of Propostion 2
For case (P2), (SC) is binding by following argument. Suppose that (SC) is not
binding, then QJ > 0 and pJ < 0, implying that (p(Rt ), Q(Rt )) must be located
at a point Q > Q , between the p1 (Rt , Q(Rt )) and the pJ (Rt , Q(Rt )) schedules.
However, in the proof of Proposition 1, we demonstrated that (p(Rt ), Q(Rt )) must
be located at a point Q < Q , between the pJ (Rt , Q(Rt )) and the p1 (Rt , Q(Rt ))
schedules whenever (SC) is not binding. Thus, Q(Rt ) = QJ (p(Rt ), Rt ), since the
value of Q that maximizes the dealer profits also maximizes joint profits given
the price p(Rt ). In this instance, the manufacturer chooses the following price,
recognizing that it will influence the quantity; QJ (p(Rt ), Rt ), which the dealer sells.
The first-order condition for the choice of p(Rt ) is given by
d m
= pJ + QJ [dQJ /d p] + h(Rt )[XRt ,p + XRt Q [dQJ /d p] ,
dp
(A7)
18