GlobalGeomagneticStormInducedFailureof400MegaHVAC

TransformersisAvoidablebyRedundantHVACTransformerArrays
or
ACurrentandVoltageDivisionMethodtoReduceMegaHVAC
TransformerFailuresbyRedundantTransformerArrays
Abstract
DuringseveresolarstormsHVACtransformersusedbyutilitiesofdimensionalsizesimilartoamediumsizedhouse
aresubjecttocatastrophicfailure.Asthesetransformershaveverylongcommissioningandrepairschedulestheir
failureposesacatastrophicrisk.LargepartsofgridsthatdependontheirexistenceoftheseACtransformerscanbe
renderednonfunctioningwhenthemegatransformersfail.Thiscatastrophecanbeavoidedbyusingsimplevoltage
divisionandcurrentdivisionprincipalsimplementedintheformofredundantarraysofsmallerHVACtransformers.

Electricpowerismodernsociety'scornerstonetechnologyonwhichvirtuallyallother
infrastructuresandservicesdepend.YetHVACpowergridsareparticularly
vulnerabletospaceweatherevents.
Groundcurrentsinducedduringgeomagneticstormscancreateexcesscurrentsinthe
electricalgrid.Theseexcessunregulatedcurrentshavethepowertomeltthecopper
windingsofelectricallystressedtransformersatthecoreofmanymainspower
distributionsystems.
SprawlingpowerlinesinessenceactlikeVLFantennas.Thegrid'sdistribution
networkpicksuptheinducedcurrentscreatedbythesolarstormandabsorbsthem[at
fullenergy]intothepowergrid.
Mechanisms
AtimevaryingmagneticfieldexternaltotheEarthinduceselectriccurrentsinthe
conductingground.
Thesecurrentscreateasecondary(internal)magneticfield.
AsaconsequenceofFaraday"LawofInduction"electricfieldsalignedalongthe
surfaceoftheEarthareinducedinassociationwiththetimevariationsofthemagnetic
field.Thesurfaceelectricfieldcauseselectricalcurrentsthatareknownas
GeomagneticallyInducedCurrents(GICs)toflowintoanyconductingstructure.

ThisGICinducedelectricfield(typicallymeasuredinV/km)actsasavoltagesource
acrossnetworks.
ExamplesofGeomagneticallyInducedCurrentconductingnetworksare
electricalpowertransmissiongrids
oilandgaspipelines
underseacommunicationcables
coppertelephonenetworks
telegraphnetworksusedbyrailways
GICsareoftendescribedasbeing'quasiDirectCurrent'(DC)althoughthevariation
frequencyofGICisgovernedbythelocaltimevariationsoftheEarth'selectricfield.
GeomagneticallyInducedCurrentsinthesystemsthatconductthemaremorelikeDC
biascurrents.ForGICstobeahazardtotechnology,thecurrentflowshavetobeofa
magnitudeandfrequencythatmakeselectricalequipmentsusceptibletoeither
immediateorcumulativedamage.
ThesizeoftheGICinanynetworkisgovernedbytheelectricalpropertiesandthe
topologyofthenetwork.Thelargest(magnetospheric)ionosphericcurrentvariations,
resultinginthelargestexternalmagneticfieldvariationstypicallyoccurduring
geomagneticstorms.GeomagneticstormsbytheirnaturecreatethelargestGICs.
SignificanttemporalvariationinGICsisknowntorangefromfromafewsecondsto
aboutanhour.
Sincethelargestmagneticfieldvariationsareobservedathighermagneticlatitudes,
GIChavebeenregularlymeasuredinCanadian,FinnishandScandinavianpower
gridsandpipelinessincethe1970s.
GICsoftenstohundredsofAmpereshavebeenrecordedoutsidethePolarregions.
GICshavealsobeenrecordedatmidlatitudesduringmajorgeomagneticstormswith
nearlythesamemagnitudeastheGICsinPolarregions.However,GICsarenota
problemexclusivetothemidlatitudesortheArctic.
ThereisstillasubstantialGICrisktolowlatitudeareas(thetropics).Whena
geomagneticstormcommencessuddenlyahigh,shortperiodrateofchangeofthe

Earth'smagneticfieldwilloccuronthedaysideoftheEarth.Thissuddeninduction
eventwillinducehighcurrentGICsintothetropicregions.Theseeventsaretypically
shortlived,butposeathreattothepowersupplysystemsinthetropics.
Theproblem
AccordingtoastudybyMetatechcorporation,ageomagneticstormwithastrength
comparativetothatof1921wouldresultinatleast130millionpeoplewithout
electricalpowerand350brokenHVACtransformers.Theoverallcostofrestoringthe
gridtoitsoriginalfunctionalityandtheeconomicdamagecausedbythedisruption
wouldbearound2TrillionDollars(2000000000000USD).
Powerdistributiongridsarenotdesignedtoabsorblargescalegeomagnetically
inducedcurrentsaspartoftheirnormaldaytodayoperation.
Modernelectricpowertransmissionsystemsconsistofgeneratingplants
interconnectedbyelectricalcircuitsthatoperateatfixedtransmissionvoltages
controlledatsubstations.Thegridvoltagesemployedarelargelydependentonthe
pathlengthbetweenthesesubstations.Typically200kVto700kVsystemvoltagesare
common.
Thereisatrendtowardshighervoltagesandlowerlineresistancestoreduce
transmissionlossesoverlongerandlongerpathlengths.Lowlineresistancesproduce
asituationfavourabletotheflowofGICs.
PowertransformerstypicallyhaveamagneticcircuitthatisdisruptedbythequasiDC
GIC:thefieldproducedbytheGICoffsetstheoperatingpointofthemagneticcircuit
andthetransformermaygointohalfcyclesaturation.Thisproducesharmonicstothe
ACwaveform,localizedheatingandleadstohighreactivepowerdemands,inefficient
powertransmissionandpossiblefailureorabnormaloperationofprotectivedevices.
Balancingtheelectricalnetworkinsuchsituationsrequiressignificantadditional
reactivepowercapacity.
ThemagnitudeofGICthatwillcausesignificantproblemstotransformersvarieswith
transformertype.ModernindustrypracticeistospecifyGICtolerancelevelsonnew
transformers.
Therearesomepartialsolutionsforcopingwithgeomagneticallyinducedcurrents,

typicallyinvolvinggroundingtheelectricalgridat
50kmintervalsinthelatitude[NorthSouth]domain
75kmintervalsinthelongitude[EastWest]domain
longerintervalsthan60kmclosertothetropics
Itmustbenotedthatmostelectricalutilitiesoftenfailtofullyimplementthese
recommendations.
GICriskcan,tosomeextent,bereducedbycapacitorblockingsystems,maintenance
schedulechanges,additionalondemandgeneratingcapacity,andultimatelythe
policyofloadshedding.
Theseoptionsareexpensiveandsometimesimpractical.
Thecontinuedgrowthofhighvoltagepowernetworksresultsinahigherriskforall
users.Thisispartlyduetotheincreaseintheinterconnectednessathighervoltages
connectionsintermsofpowertransmissiontogridsintheauroralzone,andgrids
operatingclosertocapacitythaninthepast.
TounderstandtheflowofGICsinpowergridsandtoadviseonGICriskanalysisof
thequasiDCpropertiesofthegridisnecessary.Thisanalysismustbecoupledwitha
geophysicalmodeloftheEarththatprovidesthedrivingsurfaceelectricfield,
determinedbycombiningtimevaryingionosphericsourcefieldsandaconductivity
modeloftheEarth.
ThiskindofanalysishasbeenperformedforNorthAmerica,theUKandinNorthern
Europe.Thecomplexityofpowergrids,thesourceionosphericcurrentsystemsand
the3Dgroundconductivitymakeanaccurateanalysisdifficultbutnot
computationallyimpractical.Bybeingabletoanalyzemajorstormsandtheir
consequencesitispossibletobuildapictureoftheweakspotsinatransmission
systemandrunhypotheticaleventscenarios.
Theperilsofinterconnection
Fromthe1990sintothepresentdayUSutilitieshavejoinedgridstogethertoallow
longdistancetransmissionoflowcostpowertoareasofsuddendemand.Canadais
alsopartofthisNorthAmericanelectricalgridnetwork,afactoftenlostinthe
technicalliterature.CanadaisevenmoresusceptibletocoupledWinterstorm+
Geomagneticstormconditions.InCanada,substantiallossoflifeispossibleduetoa

gridfailure'sdirecteffects.IntheUSthesecondaryeffectsofgridfailurewillleadto
largerpercapitalossoflifethanCanadaviaprimaryeffects.
Asitwere:onahotsummerdayinCalifornia,forinstance,peopleinLosAngeles
mightberunningtheirairconditionersonpowerroutedfromOregon.Thismaymake
shorttermeconomicsensebutnotnecessarilygeomagneticsense.Grid
interconnectednessmakesthepowerdistributionnetworksusceptibletowideranging
"cascadefailures."
Theproblem
Thesepowergridfailureproblemsaretotally'manmade'andare'designinduced
problems'withseveraldifferentandnotablecauses
Stateorprivatesectorcompanieshavebeenhiringelectricalengineersfor
decadesthatarebarelysuitabletothetaskofmaintainingthepowergrid.Ofthe
subtleproblemsolvingissuesandcomplicationsrequiredinrealelectrical
engineeringtheseengineersknownotajot.
Nepotism,favoritism[coupledwithaheftydoseofoutrightclassandrace
discrimination]atvirtuallyeveryelectricalengineeringschoolinNorthAmerica
hasineffectleftthispartoftheelectricalengineeringprofession(thatmaintains
theessentialfunctioningofthepowergrid)withpoororunsuitablereplacements.
The'classicallytrained'NorthAmericanelectricalengineersofthe1950stothe
1970sarefarbetterproblemsolversthantheirexistingcounterpartstoday.
ItmustbenotedthattheeducationsystemintheUSfunctionedadequately
enoughduringthe1950sto1970stoproducesuitablegridengineerscapable
ofsomeoriginalthoughtandinnovations.
Theexitingoftheseengineersviaretirementwillbefeltinthe2010switha
dropinoverallreliabilityoftheUSelectricalpowergrid.
AlthoughtheeducationsituationinCanadamaybebetterthantheUS's,
Canadahasneglectedthisvitalprofessioninspiteoftheongoingthreatsto
gridreliabilitythatpervadeCanada'sgeographicspace.
ThefinancesystemthatoverseesthefundingofutilitiesinNorthAmericahasnot
encouragedinnovationsingridreliability.Thisfinancesectorneglectisaglobal
problemandprobablyaprincipalreasonwhytheHVACtransformer
redundancyproblemwasnotsolvedgloballyatleast30yearsago.
GovernmentalregulationatalllevelsinNorthAmericahasfailedtoaddressthe
problemofMegaHVACfailuresdirectlyorindirectly,effectivelyperpetuating

theproblembyneglect.
ComputationalresearchintotheknownproblemsoflargescaleACtransformer
circuitgridscouldhavefixedtheproblembythelate1990s.Itisclearthat
limitedpowergridcircuitredesigniswouldbeneededbuttheproblemisnota
complexone.
ThereisanongoingfailurebyallpartiesinvolvedtomaketheHVAC
Transformerproblemanditssolutions'opensource'soastoencourageongoing
research.
Anoutrightdisregardforelectricalengineering,chemistryandphysics
knowledgebythegeneralpublicinNorthAmericaaswellassubstantialpartsof
Europe.
Tentativerecommendationsformakingpowergridssurviveseveresolarstorms
Generalsystemrecommendationsandpractices
Generallythetransformerredundancyruleshouldbe
[smalloddnumberundereleven]=NumberofRedundantTransformers.
Generallythetransformerredundancyruleshouldbe
[smalloddnumberundereleven1]=NumberofRedundantTransformers
inUse(atanyonetimetobackuptheMegaHVACtransformer).
Potentiallyupto13HVACtransformerscouldbeusedinparallelbutthe
bufferingandcophasingnetworksaswellassafetyconsiderationsmightmake
suchasystemtoocomplex.
Therearepersonnelsafetysystemissuesinvolvedwithusinganarrayofmore
than11transformers.
Theexcessredundancyofanarrayof13HVACtransformersisonly
recommendedforthemostnortherlylocationsorextremeengineeringconditions.
EachHVACtransformermusthaveitsownaccompanyingbufferingand
matchingnetworktoterminateandmatchitsoutput.
ItisnotfullyclearexactlyhowthisHVACtransformernetworkshouldbe
designed.Thereareatleast400differentMegaHVACtransformerinstallations
andeachmaybelocallyunique.LetitbesaidthattherequiredAC(matching/
cophasing)networksarenotdesignimpossibilitiesforthiskindofapplication.
Inprincipalaswellasinpractice:Itisnotrecommendedriskinggoingbelow5
redundantHVACtransformers,with7beingthenominalrecommendation.
Theultimatenumberofredundanttransformersmustultimatelydependonthe
staticanddynamicloadfactorsfortheMegaHVACtransformer.

Overallrecommendationsonredundancy:anarrayof11to7transformersis
nominal.
Specificsystemrecommendationsandpractices,typicaltransformerredundancy
modeof7
EachMegaHVACtransformermusthave[asabackupsystem]anarrayofat
least7HVACtransformers(6inuseatanyonetime)thatcanbeswitchedonasa
backupsystematanytime.
AtleastoneredundantHVACtransformerarrayelementmustalwaysbein
'repairormaintenancemode'or'stormbufferingmodesetaside'.
EachredundantHVACtransformermustberatedat1/6ththecombinedMega
HVAC(input/output)parameters,whereanarrayof7transformersexist.
TheindividualHVACredundanttransformerarrayratingsshouldbe133%to
166%ofthe[(1/6th)x(MegaHVACratings)].Asolarstormmayhappenwhen
aredundanttransformerissetasideforrepair,thusthe1/6thnot1/7thconstant.
Operationmodes
Thistechnologywillhave[bynecessity]atleast3to5commonoperatingmodes.
A(singleinput,twooutput)variablepotentiometermustproceedtheMega
HVACTransformeranditsbackupredundantarrayoftransformersthatsplitting
theinputload.
Avariablepotentiometertosplitthevoltageandcurrentbetweentheoriginal
HVACmegatransformerandtheredundantarraymustundernormalconditions
bebalancingtheloadsat(50%,50%).
Thevariablepotentiometermust[understressfulsolarstormconditions]reduce
theloadgoingintotheMegaHVACtransformerbyatleast25%(75%,25%)but
alsobeabletodosobyupto45%(95%,5%).
RedundantTransformerArrayStateMachineOperatingModes
Mode#(InputintoArray,InputintoMegaTransformer)
Mode1:(50%,50%):nominaloperations
Mode2:(75%,25%):theredundantHVACarrayismadebackuptokeep
theHVACfromfailing
Mode3:(100%,0%):thisisamaintenancemodenotanormaloperations

mode.
Mode4:(0%,100%):thisisamaintenancemodenotanormaloperations
mode.
Mode5:(90%,10%):inthelongterm,theMegaTransformershouldbe
usedasasecondarybackupuntilitistimeforittobedecommissioned.
OperationModes(Notes)
Modeswitchingtimemustbekeptat1hourduringtheWinterand3hoursduring
theSummer,withmostrepairstotheredundantarraysbeingmadeduringtheFall
andSpring.
Acophasingandbufferingnetworkafterthe[redundantarray]orafterthe
[redundantarray+megaHVACtransformer]isneededtorestoretherequired
targetoutputvoltagesandamperagestothemainsgrid.
ItisnotrecommendedtooperateinINPUTOUTPUTSYMMETRYMODE
where1HVAC=1HVAC(input,outputsymmetry)unlessthereisanabsolute
engineeringnecessityexceptintheformof1HVACinput=2HVACoutputs.
ArbitrarilyengaginginengineeringpracticesthatforcemoreMegaHVAC
transformersintoexistenceintheexistingelectricalgrids[excepttoincreasethe
reliabilityofthosealreadydeployed]hasengineeringandreliabilitylimitations.
ManyMegaHVACtransformersthatarecurrentlydeployedmaynothaveany
actualengineeringnecessity,withrespecttoalternategriddesignsthatcouldbe
putintoplacethatwouldalleviatetheirexistenceentirely.
ItisassumedthattheMegaHVACtransformerswilleventuallybephasedoutby
redundantarraysofcheaperHVACtransformerssoastototallyeliminatethis
failuremode.
HighpowerdiodestokeeptheACcurrentsunidirectionalwillberequriedinany
HVACredundantarraydesign.Redundantarraysofanaloguedevicesmustbe
designedsoastoavoidcurrentfeedbackandreflectionproblems.
Circuitbreakerstoseparateoutthetransformersfromthearrayandgridmustbe
4xredundantsoastomakeaccidentalenergizingofthetransformernearly
impossible.
Whytheaboverecommendationswillwork,ortheelectricalengineeringlawswe
knowsowell
Thecurrententeringanyjunctionisequaltothecurrentleavingthatjunction:
akaKirchhoff'scurrentlaw(KCL).

Thedirectedsumoftheelectricalpotentialdifferencesaroundanyclosedcircuit
mustbezero.(Notethatgeomagneticstormstendtodisturbthisdifferenceto
destructiveeffectwithintheinnardsoftransformers.)
Inelectricalcircuittheory,Thvenin'stheoremforlinearelectricalnetworks
statesthatanycombinationofvoltagesources,currentsourcesandresistorswith
twoterminalsiselectricallyequivalenttoasinglevoltagesourceVandasingle
seriesresistorR.ForsinglefrequencyACsystemsthetheoremcanalsobe
appliedtogeneralimpedances,notjustresistors.Thissimpleprincipalcan
simplifytheconceptualandpracticalproblemsthatwillbeencounteredalongthe
way.
Norton'stheoremforlinearelectricalnetworksstatesthatanycollectionof
voltagesources,currentsources,andresistorswithtwoterminalsiselectrically
equivalenttoanidealcurrentsource,I,inparallelwithasingleresistor,R.For
singlefrequencyACsystems[likepowergrids]thetheoremcanalsobeapplied
togeneralimpedances,notjustresistors.
TheNortonEquivalentisusedtorepresentanynetworkoflinearsourcesand
impedances,atagivenfrequency.Thecircuitconsistsofanidealcurrentsource
inparallelwithanidealimpedance(orresistorfornonreactivecircuits).
RecommendationsforAustralia,Canada&NewZealand
AustraliashouldmakethenecessarychangesinitsACgridsinthenext5years,
asthebudgetspermitattheelectricalutilities.AustraliahasalotofisolatedAC
powergrids,somostoftheAustralianACpowergridmaynotbeaffectedbythe
inducedcurrentsproblemtoanyextent.Australiamayhavelessthan4Mega
HVACtransformersthatmaybeaffectedbythegeomagneticstormproblem,so
timeandcarecanbetakentofixtheproblem.LocalHVACgridSolarandWind
powerproductionmustbeincreasedtoprovideasafetymargin.Thereisno
reasontheinducedcurrentsproblemcannotbefixedby2013atthelatest,tocope
withtheexpectedsolaractivityuptick.
CanadaneedstodemandthatallUSbasedmegatransformersthatsendpower
intoCanadaberedundantaspartofanyelectricitysalestotheUS.Domestically,
asimilarassessmenttotheUSisneededanda7yearreplacementprogramme
needstobestartedwithparticularemphasisonOntario,QuebecandBritish
Columbia.
NewZealandneedstostatutorilymake14daysperyear(in4separatemonths)
whentheNorthSouthHVDCHVDCgridsruntotallyindependentofeachother.
Transpower[oranyentityinvolvedinpowerdistribution]needstoinstitutea

redundancyprogrammeforitssuspectedHVACtransformersatriskoverthe
next5years.AsHVDCisusedforlongdistanceinterconnects,some
experimentationmaybeneededtosolvetheissue.However,withNZHVDC
girdtheinducedcurrentsproblemisfarsimplerandNZtofix.NewZealand
maynothaveanymorethan3HVACtransformersatsubstantialorsubstantive
risk.
RecommendationsfortheEuropeanUnion
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Definitions
MegaHVACTransformer:Theratingofthe300orsointheUSisunknowntome,sothemetricof
commissioningtimewillbeused.Ifatransformertakesmorethan6months(180days)tobuild(from
commissioningtodelivery)thenitisaMegaTransformer.
RedundantHVACTransformer:Itisassumedthateachoneofthesemusttakenomorethan3months(90days)
fromcommissioningtodelivery.Thesealsomustbeofasizewhereonecanbephysicallydeliveredanywherein
EuropeorNorthAmericain30days.
MatchingorCophasingNetwork:ThisnetworkisneededtotakethemultipleredundantarrayofHVAC
transformerinputsandlinearlysumtheseinputsintooneortwooutputswithproperlymatched:frequency,
phase,amplitudeandimpudence.
Technicalreferences
Physics
Template:Magnetospherics()
Geomagnetic_storm()

Geomagneticallyinducedcurrent(TheSourceofthevariantDCbiascurrentsinACpowergridsthatcause
problems.)
SpecificSolarStormEvents
March1989geomagneticstorm(ItcausedsubstantialdamagetotheHVACgridinNorthEasternNorth
America)
Solarstormof1859(ThegloballyfamousCarringtonEvent)
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/21jan_severespaceweather.htm()
ElectricalEngineering
Transformer()
Transformertypes(DC,AC):TransformersgenerallyonlyoperateintheDCorACdomains,andfailifnonspec
currentsareintroduced.
Faraday'sLawofInduction(InductionoftheEarth'smagneticfieldintomainspowerlinescancreatemegawatt
levelvoltagesandamperages.)
Faradayparadox()
OHM'sLAWESSENTIALS:Voltagedivider(alsoknownasVoltageDivision)&Currentdivider(alsoknownas
CurrentDivision)bothworkintheACdomainwithslightlydifferentphysicalinterpretationsfromtheDC
domain.
Kirchhoff'scircuitlaws()
Thevenin'stheorem()
Norton'stheorem(NortonEquivalentscanbeusedtosimplifycircuitanalysis)
CircuitAnalysis
Linearcircuit(powergridshaveordevelopmanynonlinearbehaviourswhenextendedbeyond100kmasa
generalrule)
Meshanalysis(importantforunderstandingpowergridbehavioursandriskpoints)
Sourcetransformation()
SPICE(SimulationProgramwithIntegratedCircuitEmphasis)
PowerGridIssues
Electricitydistribution(Topicoverview.)
Electricpowertransmission(Technologicaloverview)
Electricalsubstation(WhereHVACisdistributed)
Loadprofile(isanareainsurplusorbrownout)
Powersystemharmonics(theirregularnatureofpowerdistributionsystemcreatesinternaloscillatoryconditions)
Dynamicdemand(electricpower)()
Distributedgeneration(awayofreducingcatastrophicnetworkfailures,moreviableinthedevelopedworld)
FlexibleACtransmissionsystem(ACtransmissionsystemsthatcanadapttoawidesetofconditions)
SmartPowerGrid(anextended"FlexibleACtransmissionsystem")
Gridtiedelectricalsystem()
PowerOutageIssues
Poweroutage(whenthereisnopower,variouscausesexist)
Listofpoweroutages(beyond1mhoursoftransmissionmustbelost,1965Present)
Rollingblackout(usedfortechnicalorenergyconservationreasons)
Cascadingfailure(whenafailureinpointAcausesfailuresinpointBCDE,appliestoentirepowernetworks)

Createdby

OriginalIdea

Created

LastModified

Version

RevisionState

MaxPower

15May2006

24October2009

22May2014(readability,content)

0.87a

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