PSSO

Praktikum Simulasi Sistem Operasi

Pertemuan 7
Compilation from various source

Fajar Ayu Pinagara, M.Phil., M.Sc.

Bahasan
Pertemuan 1
Pengantar Soft System Methodology & System Dynamics

Pertemuan 2
Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)

Pertemuan 3
Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD)

Pertemuan 4
Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD) Lanjutan : Graphical Integration

Pertemuan 5 dan 6
Perkenalan Perilaku Standar Suatu Sytem (Macam-Macam
Model Generik)

Pertemuan 7
Co-Flows & Aging Chain
Modelling Process: PHAPI

HOMEWORK?

Homework!
The Crisis of Starbucks??
Read Barlas!
Kerjakan halaman 1155 1156
Kumpulkan via email ke asisten

Do the Powersim Tutorial!

Introduction to Powersim Studio
Expanding the Inventory Tutorial

COFLOWS AND AGING CHAIN

CoFlows:
Modelling the Attributes of a Stock
Coflows : used to account for the attributes of
items flowing through a stock and flow network.
It is used since modelers must not only capture
the total quantity of material in a stock and flow
network but also various attributes of the items
in the network.
Ex: the average skill or experience of a workforce,
the quality of materials, or the book value of of a
firms inventory.

Coflows example
Coflow structures are used to keep track of
the attributes of various items as they travel
through the stock and flow structure of a
system.
Example: Consider a model designed to help a
company understand how fast new
technology can be deployed and how it
changes the number of workers it needs

 The coflow is a stock and flow structure exactly mirroring

the main stock and flow structure. The coflow tracks the
labor requirements embodied in the capital stock as new
machines are acquired and old ones are discarded.

Coflows example
The book value of of a firms inventory (See
attachment)

Aging Chains
The outflow rates of items from a stock often depend
strongly on the age of the items.
Human mortality rates depend on age, the rate at
which people discard and replace their automobiles
depends on the age of their cars, machine breakdowns
in a plant depend on the time since the machines were
last overhauled, and so on.
Aging chains are used to represent situations where
the mortality rates of items in a stock and flow
structure are age-dependent and allow you to model
changes in the age structure of any stock.

Aging Chains example

In many situations there are additional inflows and
outflows to the intermediate stages. In these cases an
aging chain is used to model the stock and flow
structure of the system.
Example: Imagine the skilled labor force at a firm. Since
it takes time for new hires to become fully experienced
and productive, the modeler may choose to
disaggregate the total stock of employees into two
categories, rookie employees and experienced
employees. (An important aspect of the structure is the
delay in the assimilation of rookies)

 this situation cannot be modeled with a second-order

material delay because the firm can hire both rookies and
experienced people, and both rookies and experienced
employees can quit (or be fired). There are inflows and
outflows to each of the stocks in the chain.

General Structure of
Aging Chains
An aging chain can have
any number of stocks
(called cohorts), and
each cohort can have any
number of inflows or
outflows
The total stock is divided
into n cohorts

Aging chains for businesses, housing, and labor

in Urban Dynamics; Forresters (1969)

Aging Chains example

Aging chains can be applied to any population in which the
probability of exiting the population depends on the age of
the items in the population.
Besides the aging and mortality of a population, examples
include the failure of machines in a factory as a function of
the time since the last maintenance activity, default and
repayment rates for loans of different ages, the rate of
divorce as a function of marriage duration, or the likelihood
of re-arrest following parole.
However, Forrester deliberately kept the model as simple
as possible. Not all possible flows in the aging chains are
represented, and the model is no more disaggregated than
necessary for the purpose.

Aging Chains example

The age structure of Organization (IPB Simple
SFD, see Sterman book and attachment)

The faculty example shows how an aging chain

can be used to model the demographic structure
of organizations and illustrates the dramatic
impact of growth on the distribution of personnel
among the different ranks.

Aging Chains example: Promotion

chains and Learning Curve
Recall the skilled labor force at a firm of two stocks.

To keep the model simple, assume it is not possible to

hire experienced people. In some industries,
experienced hires are unavailable or too expensive.
More commonly, becoming fully productive depends
on the accumulation of situation-specific knowledge,
so prior experience is of limited benefit.

 This structure is very useful in modeling the effect of

training and assimilation delays on the productivity of a
workforce as the growth Rate varies. The promotion
chain provides a simple and effective way to model the
learning curve for new employees.

MODELLING PROCESS: PHAPI

PHAPI
What is behind the acronym PHAPI when
used in System Dynamics (SD) studies:
PHA is the scientific method used to understand
the roots of problem,
P is policy design or operations research, and
I is implementation or management.

Use PHAPI repeatedly when designing a

project, when discussing, when writing, and
when presenting a project

P
Problem: Identify the problem.
Illustrate the problem by a reference mode
behaviour over time. The problem variable
should represent what really matters to your
client. The reference mode could be based on
historical data, or it could be a hypothetical
(future) problem development.

H
Hypothesis: This is the system structure that you
suspect create the reference mode behaviour.
The hypothesis is formulated in terms of a formal
model. Identify if the hypothesis belongs to a
class of problems such that you can benefit from
previous research and such that your results can
be generalized.
In SD, models are dynamic with stocks and flows,
they reflect a feedback perspective, and they
have closed boundaries.

Analysis: There are separate hypothesis tests for structure and

behaviour, where SD puts a particular stress on structural tests.
Structure: Boundary tests ensure that focus is on replicating the reference
mode from an endogenous perspective.
Challenge exogenous inputs and constants to establish feedback loops and use the snap
shot test to challenge stock and flow definitions. Use extreme tests to challenge
nonlinearities. Check real life interpretations and units of parameters and variables.
Collect and evaluate prior information about structure and parameters.

Behaviour: Perform simulation tests to explain all the important modes of

model behaviour in terms of the hypothesized structure (you may also
make use of analogies, phase diagrams, and eigenvalue analysis).
Calibrate uncertain parameters and compare simulated behaviour to reference mode

Conclusions: Either the hypothesis is rejected (revise parameter values,

revise model structure, or reject the entire hypothesis) or it is not rejected
(the model is found useful as one of possibly many hypotheses that will
not be rejected by data).

P
Policy: Given a useful hypothesis for the
reference mode, formulate hypotheses about
policies that could alleviate the problem.
The above iterative process with hypothesis
formulation and analysis is repeated. Now the
goal is not to replicate the reference mode,
rather to find feasible policies that produce
less problematic behaviours. Optimization
literature provides principles.

I
Implementation: Presentation of problem hypothesis
and policies should recognize and extend clients
mental models to foster conceptual change.
The generality of the problem and previous experience
may prove very helpful and thus stimulate natural
diffusion of information. Implementation costs and
compatibility of policies with existing client
organization should be anticipated and considered.
Fairness issues should be thought of and compensation
schemes considered. Risks due to uncertainty and
complexity should be analysed and sought reduced.
Involve clients at an early stage, for instance through
use of group model building.

Example
P: Low profit in the trucking business
(assumed there is data to verify the problem)
H: claimed caused increased diesel taxes
(by truckers, media, politicians, public)

Example Contd
Hypothesized caused: Diesel tax development

Example Contd
A (Analysis of popular hypothesis):
Do higher taxes lead to lower profits?

Not rejected

Example Contd
P: Remove the cause of low profits the
diesel tax and profits will return to normal
Back to A:
Test by simulating the model
Result: profits do return to normal

Example Contd
I: Diesel tax removed in 2000; previous call for
green taxes was overruled
No conceptual change needed (support)
Implementation cost are low
Fairness perceived to be restored
Little apparent risk

Example Contd
Anaylisis Revisited
Was the underlying theory approriate?
Were there any missing cause and effect
relationships?
Is it only taxes that matter for profits?
In other words, does the hypothesized model pass
a test of structure?

 Hypothesis
and Analysis
Revisited
Reject
popular
hypothesis:
Diesel tax
increase did
not cause
low profits

Example Contd
Policy Revisited
H: Do not remove the extra diesel tax
A:
Tax removal improves profits in the short run, however..
Questionable practice to change taxes in pace with profits in the
trucking business or in any other business
Green taxes are desirable and should not be removed

Implementation of No Action

Conceptual change needed

Implementation cost are low
Some perceived fairness issues
Considerable political risk (in conflict with popular
hypothesis)

Summary
Aging chains are widely used to capture the
demographic structure of a population. The
population need not be a living population but
can be the stock of machines in a plant, the
number of cars on the road, or the accounts
receivable of a firm. Any time the rate at which
items exit a stock and flow network depends on
their age, that is, any time the mortality rates of
individuals in the stock are age-dependent, an
aging chain may be required to model the
situation with sufficient accuracy for the purpose
of the model.

Summary
Coflows are used to keep track of the attributes
of the items in a stock and flow network.
Attributes can include the age of the items, the
productivity and experience of labor, the energy
requirements or level of technology embedded in
plant and equipment, the level of defects in
product designs, or any property that is
associated with the items in the stock and flow
network. Coflows are useful in situations where
the qualities of the items in a systems stocks, as
well as their quantity, affect the decision making
of the agents in the system.

Summary
PHAPI

Summary of All Sessions...

Pengantar Soft System Methodology & System
Dynamics
Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)
Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD)
Perilaku Standar Suatu Sytem (Macam-Macam Model
Generik)

Graphical Integration
Co-Flows & Aging Chain
Modelling Process: PHAPI

Bahasan
Pertemuan 1
Pengantar Soft System Methodology & System Dynamics

Pertemuan 2
Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)

Pertemuan 3
Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD)

Pertemuan 4
Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD) Lanjutan : Graphical Integration

Pertemuan 5
Perkenalan Perilaku Standar Suatu Sytem (Macam-Macam
Model Generik)

Pertemuan 6
Co-Flows & Aging Chain

Pertemuan 7
Modelling Process: PHAPI