Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
NOVEMBER 2015
Introduction
Lazards Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis (LCOS) addresses the following topics:
Definition of a cost-oriented approach to energy storage technologies and applications
Note: This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice.
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
necessarily situation-, market- and owner-dependent and belies this cost-oriented and levelized analysis
WHAT THE LCOS DOES
2
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
SELECTED OBSERVATIONS
While an energy storage system may be optimized for a
Value
Positive
one or more($113.70)
specific revenue streams, as the operating
requirements of one use case may preclude
efficient/economic operations in another use case for the
same system (e.g., frequency regulation vs. PV integration)
Value
Negative
Value
Stream
1
Value
Stream
2
(a)
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
Value
Stream
3
Value
Stream
4
Total Value(a)
Presented here as the simple sum of all available value streams. Due to operational and other factors, such stacked value would likely differ from the simple sum of all value
streams in practice.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
There are a wide variety of energy storage technologies currently available and in development; some technologies are better
suited to particular use cases or other operational requirements (e.g., geological considerations for compressed air, heat
considerations for lithium-ion and sodium, etc.) than competing technologies
COMPRESSED AIR
DESCRIPTION
Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) uses electricity to compress air into confined spaces (e.g., underground mines, salt caverns,
etc.) where the pressurized air is stored
EXPECTED
USEFUL LIFE(a)
15 20 years
When required, this pressurized air is released to drive the compressor of a natural gas turbine
Flow batteries contain two electrolyte solutions in two separate tanks, circulated through two independent loops; when connected to a
FLOW BATTERY
load, the migration of electrons from the negative to positive electrolyte solution creates a current
The sub-categories of flow batteries are defined by the chemical composition of the electrolyte solution; the most prevalent of such
15 20 years
FLYWHEEL
flywheels rotor, releasing quick bursts of energy (i.e., high power and short duration)
Flywheels typically have a low energy density and high power ratingsthey release large amounts of power over a short period (i.e.,
20+ years
minutes); typically, maintenance is minimal and lifespans are greater than most battery technologies
Lead-acid batteries were invented in the 19th century and are the oldest and most common batteries; they are low-cost and adaptable to
LEAD-ACID
numerous uses (e.g., electric vehicles, off-grid power systems, uninterruptible power supplies, etc.)
Advanced lead-acid battery technology combines standard lead-acid battery technology with ultra-capacitors; these technologies
5 15 years
LITHIUM-ION
Lithium-ion batteries are increasingly replacing lead-acid batteries in many applications; they have relatively high energy density, low
5 15 years
Pumped hydro storage makes use of two vertically separated water reservoirs, using low cost electricity to pump water from the lower
to the higher reservoir and running as a conventional hydro power plant during high electricity cost periods
Sodium batteries are classified as high temperature and liquid-electrolyte-flow batteries, which have high power and energy density
relative to alternatives (e.g., lead-acid); they are maintained at a temperature of 300 350C
20+ years
5 15 years
Zinc batteries cover a wide range of possible technology variations, including metal-air derivatives
ZINC
Zinc battery systems are non-toxic, non-combustible and potentially low-cost due to the abundance of the primary metal; however,
5 15 years
4
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
(a)
(b)
Lazard estimates.
Denotes battery technology.
Indicates general ranges of useful economic life for a given family of technology. Useful life will vary in practice depending on sub-technology, intensity of use/cycling, engineering factors, etc.
Advanced lead-acid is an emerging technology with wider potential applications and greater cost than traditional lead-acid batteries.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
COMPRESSED
Mature technology and well-developed design
AIR
FLOW
BATTERY
FLYWHEEL
LEAD-ACID
LITHIUMION
ZINC
SODIUM
PUMPED
HYDRO
Source:
DESCRIP TIO N
TRANSMISSION
SYSTEM
PEAKER
REPLACEMENT
Gas turbine
Diesel reciprocating engine
FREQUENCY
REGULATION
DISTRIBUTION
SERVICES
PV INTEGRATION
SELECTE D
CONVENTIO N A L
ALTERN A T I VE S ( a )
(a)
Gas turbine
Gas turbine
Diesel reciprocating engine
Alteration of solar
production profile
Denotes an illustrative set of base case conventional alternatives for a given use case. Actual projects may displace a number of conventional alternatives, in certain scenarios.
Energy storage system used to enhance the stability and Lead-Acid, Sodium, Zinc,
efficiency of a microgrid electricity system with specific
Lithium-Ion, Flow Battery
local goals, such as reliability, diversification of energy
sources and/or cost reduction, especially in the context
of ramp control/mitigation (i.e., relatively short
discharge profile)
COMMERCIAL &
INDUSTRIAL
COMMERCIAL
APPLIANCE
RESIDENTIAL
Lead-Acid, Lithium-Ion,
Flow Battery
MICROGRID
ISLAND GRID
SELECTE D
CONVENTIO N A L
ALTERN A T I VE S ( a )
SELECTE D RELEVA NT
TECHNOLOG IE S
(a)
Denotes an illustrative set of base case conventional alternatives for a given use case. Actual projects may displace a number of conventional alternatives, in certain scenarios.
MW(a)
MWh OF
CAPACITY(b)
100% DOD
CYCLES/
DAY(c)
DAYS /
YEAR(d)
ANNUAL
MWh
PROJECT
MWh
TRANSMISSION SYSTEM
20
100
800
300
240,000
4,800,000
PEAKER
REPLACEMENT
20
25
100
350
35,000
700,000
FREQUENCY
REGULATION
20
10
4.8
350
8,400
168,000
DISTRIBUTION
SERVICES
20
16
300
4,800
96,000
PV
INTEGRATION
20
1.25
350
1,750
35,000
MICROGRID
20
350
1,400
28,000
ISLAND
GRID
20
350
2,100
42,000
COMMERCIAL &
INDUSTRIAL
10
350
1,400
14,000
COMMERCIAL
APPLIANCE
10
0.1
0.2
250
50
500
RESIDENTIAL
10
0.005
0.01
300
30
= Usable Energy(e)
(a)
(b)
(c)
8
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
(d)
(e)
Certain in front of the meter technology and use case combinations are cost-competitive with their dominant or base case
conventional alternatives under some scenarios, even without the benefit of subsidies or additional, non-optimized streams of
revenue; such observation does not take into account potential social or environmental externalities associated with energy
storage (e.g., environmental benefits associated with avoided gas peaker investment, etc.)
Compressed Air
TRANSMISSION
SYSTEM
$192
Flow Battery
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
Pumped Hydro
$290
$892
$461
$347
$188
$396
$230
Flow Battery
PEAKER
REPLACEMENT
Lead-Acid
$927
$419
$221
$347
$211
Lithium-Ion
Sodium
Zinc
Lithium-Ion
Sodium
Zinc
$275
(a)
$1,692
$400
$789
$426
$285
$1,129
$426
$373
$950
$402
$1,068
$355
$686
$379
$245
$957
$345
$200
$165 $218 Gas
$923
$516
$0
Source:
Note:
$989
$288
Flow Battery
PV INTEGRATION
$948
$276
Lead-Acid
$658
$365
Flywheel
Lead-Acid
$1,247
$321
Sodium
Flow Battery
DISTRIBUTION
SERVICES
$376
Lithium-Ion
Lithium-Ion
$1,079
$248
Zinc
FREQUENCY
REGULATION
$739
$274
Sodium
Zinc
$1,429
$400
Peaker(a)
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
Lazard estimates.
Here and throughout this presentation, unless otherwise indicated, analysis assumes 20% debt at 8% interest rate and 80% equity at 12% cost for all technologies and use cases. Assumes seven year
MACRS depreciation unless otherwise noted. Analysis does not reflect impact of evolving regulations/rules promulgated pursuant to the EPAs Clean Power Plan.
Indicates battery technology.
Indicates illustrative conventional alternative to energy storage. Not intended to reflect the sole conventional alternative (or source of value from replacing such alternatives). The lowest cost
conventional alternative for a particular use case may not be the lowest cost conventional alternative for another use case.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
MICROGRID
Flow Battery
$429
Lead-Acid
$433
Lithium-Ion
Sodium
$1,046
$946
$369
$562
$411
Zinc
$835
$319
$416
Flow Battery
Lead-Acid
ISLAND
Lithium-Ion
Sodium
Zinc
Flow
$1,533
$581
$870
$663
$1,259
$523
$677
$349
$1,083
$529
Lithium-Ion
Sodium
$1,231
$700
Battery
Lead-Acid
COMMERCIAL &
INDUSTRIAL
$593
$1,511
$351
$838
$444
Zinc
$310
$1,092
$452
Flow Battery
COMMERCIAL
APPLIANCE
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
Zinc
$974
$928
RESIDENTIAL
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
$833
$721
$1,657
$1,101
$2,238
$1,034
$200
$400
10
$1,363
$661
$0
Source:
(a)
$2,291
$784
Flow Battery
$1,504
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,596
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
$2,200
$2,400
Lazard estimates.
Indicates battery technology.
Indicates illustrative conventional alternative to energy storage. Not intended to reflect the sole conventional alternative (or source of value from replacing such alternatives). The lowest cost conventional
alternative for a particular use case may not be the lowest cost conventional alternative for another use case.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
$79
$15
$88
$166
$13
$98
PEAKER
REPLACEMENT
Flow Battery
Sodium
Zinc
FREQUENCY
REGULATION
DISTRIBUTION
SERVICES
$132
$11
$14
$106
$70
$13
$38
$75
$31
$92
$23
$166
$58
$20
$75
$23
$50
$253
$229
$134
$0
$39
$18
$74
Capital
$200
$48
$516
$400
$37
$426
$285
$77
$32
$70
$38
$80
$43
$227
$65
$45
$217
$365
$288
$36
$264
$419
$14 $211
$340
Flow Battery
Zinc
$66
$321
$20 $276
$261
Sodium
$29
$17 $221
$15
Lithium-Ion
Lithium-Ion
$61
$89
$79
$158
$396
$19 $248
$45
$19
Lead-Acid
Lead-Acid
$86
$36
$149
$35
$18 $230
$221
Battery
Zinc
$70
$27
$120
$461
$347
$75
$270
$43
$13 $188
$204
$66
$32
$41
$14
Lithium-Ion
Sodium
PV INTEGRATION
$68
$127
Flywheel
Flow
$290
$61
$245
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
$29
$9
Sodium
$24
$50
$225
Pumped Hydro
Zinc
$86
$302
$10 $192
$29
$69
$64
$33
$79
$373
$36
$402
$355
$32
$379
$19 $245
O&M
Charging/ Discharging
$400
Taxes
$600
11
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
Source:
Lazard estimates.
Indicates battery technology.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
Lithium-Ion
Sodium
Zinc
Flow Battery
Lead-Acid
ISLAND
Lithium-Ion
Sodium
Zinc
Flow Battery
COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
Lead-Acid
Zinc
COMMERCIAL
APPLIANCE
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
Zinc
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
$185
$139
$27
$125
$18
$127
$11
$159
$27 $369
$27 $411
$17 $319
$19 $593
$437
$47
$213
$29
$215
$36
$182
$333
$31 $581
$381
$121
$34 $349
$341
$210
$47
$17
$264
$93
$98
$92
$50
$105
$39 $444
$26 $310
$613
$87
$601
$64
$390
$50
$358
$150
$104
$86
$75
$721
$164
$132
$400
$600
O&M
$928
$784
$146
$637
$200
$99
$974
$661
$672
Lazard estimates.
Indicates battery technology.
$70
$115
$140
$130
$184
Capital
Source:
$159
$88
$504
$0
12
$529
$31 $351
$36
$17
$30 $663
$19 $523
$356
$12
$40 $700
$308
$16
$169
$30 $433
$172
$280
$132
$22 $429
$149
Flow Battery
RESIDENTIAL
$23
Sodium
$189
$37
$181
$40
$216
Lithium-Ion
Flow Battery
$178
$152
$800
Charging
$118
$113
$1,000
$1,101
$1,034
$1,200
Taxes
While each use case requires different operating parameters and each technology optimizes into these parameters differently according to
its relative strengths and challenges, a key factor regarding the long-term competitiveness of energy storage across all use case and
technology combinations is the ability of technological development and increased production volumes to materially lower the capital
costs of certain energy storage technologies, and their levelized cost of energy, over time
Compressed Air
Flow Battery
TRANSMISSION
SYSTEM
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
Sodium
Zinc
Flow Battery
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
Sodium
$545
DISTRIBUTION
SERVICES
$220
$125
$137
$479
Sodium
$91
$97
$927
$66
$127
$108
$74
$90
$595
$93
$948
$86
$98
$989
$136
$97
$96
$923
$1,181
$580
$283
$132
$655
$109
$731
$497
$194
$0
$85
$160
$159
$1,692
$79
$112
$1,129
$69
$789
$806
$253
$1,247
Sodium
Zinc
$1,079
Lithium-Ion
Lithium-Ion
$1,429
$658
$673
$200
$149
$108
$189
$716
$74
$865
Lead-Acid
Lead-Acid
$147
Zinc
PV INTEGRATION
$66
$739
$773
Lithium-Ion
Flow Battery
$892
$219
Flywheel
Flow Battery
$93
Zinc
FREQUENCY
REGULATION
$91
$997
Pumped Hydro
PEAKER
REPLACEMENT
$132
$102
$69
$950
$108
$1,068
$686
$110
$78
$94
$957
$200
$400
$600
Capital
$800
O&M
$1,000
$1,200
Charging/ Discharging
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
Taxes
13
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
Source:
Lazard estimates.
Indicates battery technology.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
While each use case requires different operating parameters and each technology optimizes into these parameters differently according to
its relative strengths and challenges, a key factor regarding the long-term competitiveness of energy storage across all use case and
technology combinations is the ability of technological development and increased production volumes to materially lower the capital
costs of certain energy storage technologies, and their levelized cost of energy, over time
A notable exception to the general theme of high capital cost components of levelized cost is the island use case, where high absolute
costs of local electricity (e.g., fuel oil, diesel, renewables) result in materially greater charging costs as a percentage of LCOS
Flow Battery
Lead-Acid
MICROGRID
$606
$595
Lithium-Ion
$336
Sodium
Zinc
ISLAND
Lithium-Ion
Sodium
Zinc
Flow
COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
Sodium
Zinc
$65
$624
$450
Lithium-Ion
Zinc
$45
RESIDENTIAL
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
$206
$80 $835
$406
$313
$44
$397
$94
$129
$1,533
$1,259
$30 $677
$100 $112
$128
$1,083
$1,082
$618
$184
$45 $87 $88
$772
$261
$1,231
$335
$377
$92
$153
$1,511
$838
$1,092
$141
$170
$183
$1,504
$1,632
$278
$991
$497
$87 $132
$83
$168
$152
$1,111
$146
$225
$175
$600
Lazard estimates.
Indicates battery technology.
$2,291
$1,657
$305
$1,107
$400
$240
$1,363
$1,532
$200
$140
$85 $833
$154
$800
$1,000
Capital
Source:
$97
$62 $870
$742
$0
14
$946
$110
Flow Battery
$1,046
$193
$677
Lead-Acid
$171
$104
Flow Battery
COMMERCIAL
APPLIANCE
$93
$876
$151
$97
Battery
$206
Flow Battery
Lead-Acid
$107
$520
$138
$1,200
O&M
$157
$1,400
Charging
$178
$164
$236
$2,238
$1,596
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
$2,200
$2,400
Taxes
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
$171
$324
Zinc
$213
$449
(a)
Flow Battery
PEAKER
REPLACEMENT
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
Sodium
Zinc
FREQUENCY
REGULATION
Lithium-Ion
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
Sodium
$414
$1,182
$576
$1,960
$446
$1,098
$472
(a)
$1,391
$258
$437
$1,200
$307
$627
$304
$477
$1,387
$682
$2,072
$622
$1,425
$611
(a)
$0
(a)
$1,434
$662
Lithium-Ion
Source:
Note:
$1,145
$483
(a)
Lead-Acid
$2,542
$492
$1,720
$1,003
Zinc
$3,000+
$1,800
Flow Battery
Sodium
15
$234
Flywheel
Zinc
PV INTEGRATION
$1,367
$297
Flow Battery
DISTRIBUTION
SERVICES
$1,075
$313
$1,937
$422
Pumped Hydro
Sodium
$970
$553
$359
$1,751
$532
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Lazard estimates.
Capital cost information presented on this page as the sum of AC and DC capital costs per kWh of usable energy. Figures as presented on this page exclude assumed EPC and administrative costs
(assumed to be 15% of AC and DC capital costs).
Indicates battery technology.
Zinc technologies are not currently widely commercially deployed. Capital costs are likely lower than other energy storage technologies due to survey participants willingness to incorporate possible future
capital cost decreases into current quotes/estimates.
$659
$650
(a)
Battery
Lithium-Ion
$476
Sodium
$466
$611
(a)
Flow Battery
COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
Lithium-Ion
Sodium
Zinc
COMMERCIAL
APPLIANCE
Flow Battery
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
Zinc
Flow Battery
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
RESIDENTIAL
(a)
16
$1,418
$288
$461
$1,081
$2,021
$386
$1,149
$487
$309
$1,438
$481
$649
$1,060
$764
$2,148
$634
$482
$1,286
$625
$500
$1,604
$1,004
$2,388
$946
$0
Source:
Note:
$1,128
$631
(a)
$2,001
$311
(a)
$784
$1,061
$1,601
$291
Lead-Acid
Lead-Acid
$2,184
$1,312
$540
Zinc
$2,400
$934
Sodium
Zinc
ISLAND
$859
Lithium-Ion
Flow
$500
$1,700
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Lazard estimates.
Capital cost information presented on this page as the sum of AC and DC capital costs per kWh of usable energy. Figures as presented on this page exclude assumed EPC and administrative costs
(assumed to be 15% of AC and DC capital costs).
Indicates battery technology.
Zinc technologies are not currently widely commercially deployed. Capital costs are likely lower than other energy storage technologies due to survey participants willingness to incorporate possible
future capital cost decreases into current quotes/estimates.
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
SLOW
MEDIAN
FAST
CAGR
(3%)
(9%)
(16%)
5-YEAR
(14%)
(38%)
(58%)
1,000
500
LIKELY DRIVERS
5,300
CAGR
(1%)
(2%)
(12%)
5-YEAR
(5%)
(10%)
(47%)
CAGR
(1%)
(5%)
(16%)
5-YEAR
(5%)
(24%)
(58%)
CAGR
(2%)
(12%)
(13%)
5-YEAR
(10%)
(47%)
(50%)
300
2,150
1,150
150
1,150
650
150
450
Zinc
Flywheel(a)
Flow Battery
350
CAGR
0%
(1%)
(7%)
250
5-YEAR
0%
(5%)
(30%)
components
Chemistry improvements will increase lifespan and
range of operation
150
2016
2017
2018
Source:
Note:
17
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
(a)
(b)
2019
2020
Lazard estimates.
Capital cost information presented on this page represents DC capital costs per kWh of usable energy, unless otherwise indicated.
Capital costs represent total capital costs, excluding EPC and administrative capital costs.
Expected capital cost declines are somewhat muted for Zinc, likely due to zinc manufacturers/developers building expected cost declines into current quotes and the absence of meaningful market
validators to such quotes.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
TRANSMISSION
SYSTEM
Flow Battery
Battery
Flow
Lead-Acid
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
Lithium-Ion
$217
$220
$230
$222
$248
$196
Zinc
Zinc
PEAKER
REPLACEMENT
FREQUENCY
REGULATION
DISTRIBUTION
SERVICES
PV
INTEGRATION
$290
Flow Battery
Battery
Flow
Lead-Acid
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
Lithium-Ion
$369
$347
$340
$321
$461
Lithium-Ion
Lithium-Ion
Flow Battery
Flow Battery
Lead-Acid
Lead-Ion
Lithium-Ion
Lithium-Ion
Zinc
Zinc
Flow
Battery
Flow Battery
Lead-Acid
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
Lithium-Ion
Zinc
Zinc
$0
$200
$165 $218 Gas
$400
Peaker(c)
$927
$619
$419
$1,247
$970
$658
$898
$989
$923
$624
$1,692
$1,316
$789
$950
$642
$1,068
$842
$686
$600
$1,429
$1,104
$739
$427
$376
$362
$211
$389
$221
$347
$215
$335
$276
$257
$211
$275
$173
$207
$288
$227
$516
$418
$400
$260
$467
$285
$426
$276
$411
$373
$282
$402
$335
$355
$243
$418
$245
$345
$239
$334
Zinc
Zinc
Flywheel(b)
Flywheel
$892
$593
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
Current LCOS
18
Lazard estimates.
Assumes median five-year expected DC capital cost declines only, unless otherwise indicated.
Assumes median five-year expected total capital cost declines.
Indicates illustrative conventional alternative to energy storage. Not intended to reflect the sole conventional alternative (or source of value from replacing such alternatives).
$429
$1,046
$364
$751
$433
$946
$380
$770
$369
$562
$291
$394
$319
$416
$314
$408
$593
$1,231
$541
$922
$700
$1,533
$617
$1,250
$581
$870
$462
$618
$523
$677
$515
$664
$349
$1,083
$280
$731
$529
$1,511
$436
$1,182
$351
$838
$252
$507
$310
$452
$302
$438
$974
$1,504
$770
$1,101
$928
$805
$784
$1,363
$605
$911
$661
$833
$648
$812
$721
$1,657
$712
$1,254
$1,101
$992
$1,034
$1,596
$846
$1,135
Lead
Lead
MICROGRID
Lithium
Lithium
Zinc
Zinc
Flow Battery
Battery
Flow
Lead
Lead
ISLAND
Lithium
Lithium
Zinc
Zinc
Flow Battery
Battery
Flow
COMMERCIAL &
INDUSTRIAL
Lead
Lead
Lithium
Lithium
Zinc
Zinc
Flow Battery
Battery
Flow
COMMERCIAL
APPLIANCE
Lead
Lead
Lithium
Lithium
Zinc
Zinc
Flow Battery
Battery
Flow
RESIDENTIAL
Lead
Lead
Lithium
Lithium
$0
$200
$400
19
Source:
(a)
(b)
Copyright 2015 Lazard. (c)
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,291
$1,844
$2,238
$1,855
$2,000
$2,200
$2,400
Current LCOS
Lazard estimates.
Assumes median five-year expected DC capital cost declines only, unless otherwise indicated.
Assumes median five-year expected total capital cost declines.
Indicates illustrative conventional alternative to energy storage. Not intended to reflect the sole conventional alternative (or source of value from replacing such alternatives).
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
Pumped HS
Zinc
CAES
Flow Battery
Lithium
Lead
Sodium
MW
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Duration
Hours
Usable Energy
MWh
800
800
800
800
800
800
800
800
800
800
800
800
800
800
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Project Life
Years
20
MWh
240,000
MWh
4,800,000 4,800,000
$/kWh
--
$211
$390
--
$300
$946
$399
$1,051
$529
$1,913
$425
$1,344
$/kWh
--
$24
$24
--
$24
$24
$24
$24
$24
$24
$24
$24
$/kWh
$32
$47
$35
$62
$26
$26
$49
$145
$63
$161
$83
$291
$67
$205
$/kWh
$244
$359
$270
$476
$197
$197
$372
$1,115
$486
$1,236
$636
$2,227
$516
$1,573
$/kWh
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$317
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 10
$0
$0
$130
$202
$0
$0
$105
$253
$209
$304
$333
$686
$269
After Year 15
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$222
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 10
$0
$0
$16
$16
$0
$0
$16
$16
$16
$16
$16
$16
$16
$16
240,000
240,000
240,000
4,800,000 4,800,000
240,000
240,000
4,800,000 4,800,000
240,000
240,000
4,800,000 4,800,000
240,000
240,000
4,800,000 4,800,000
240,000
240,000
4,800,000 4,800,000
240,000
240,000
4,800,000 4,800,000
$0
$1,033
$/kWh
After Year 15
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$/kWh
$2
$11
$4
$12
$4
$4
$3
$33
$7
$13
$13
$55
$10
$31
1.0%
3.0%
1.3%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
0.9%
3.0%
1.5%
1.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
$/MWh
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
Charging Cost
$/MWh
$50
$50
$50
$50
$50
$50
$50
$50
$50
$50
$50
$50
$50
$50
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
Efficiency
82%
81%
80%
72%
75%
75%
65%
63%
93%
91%
86%
86%
75%
76%
$/MWh
$188
$274
$230
$376
$192
$192
$290
$892
$347
$739
$461
$1,429
$396
$1,079
O&M Cost
O&M % of Capex
20
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
MW
Zinc
25
Lithium
25
25
Frequency Regulation
Flow Battery
25
25
25
Lead
25
Sodium
25
25
25
Duration
Hours
Usable Energy
MWh
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Project Life
Years
20
MWh
35,000
35,000
35,000
35,000
35,000
35,000
35,000
35,000
35,000
35,000
MWh
700,000
700,000
700,000
700,000
700,000
700,000
700,000
700,000
700,000
700,000
$/kWh
$211
$390
$399
$1,051
$250
$1,135
$529
$1,913
$425
$1,344
$/kWh
$47
$47
$47
$47
$47
$47
$47
$47
$47
$47
$/kWh
$39
$66
$67
$165
$45
$177
$86
$294
$71
$209
$/kWh
$297
$503
$513
$1,263
$342
$1,360
$663
$2,255
$543
$1,600
$/kWh
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$380
$0
$0
$0
After Year 10
$130
$202
$209
$304
$88
$304
$333
$686
$269
After Year 15
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$266
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 10
$32
$32
$32
$32
$32
$32
$32
$32
$32
$32
After Year 15
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
O&M Cost
$0
$1,033
$/kWh
$/kWh
$4
$12
$8
$13
$3
$40
$13
$56
$11
$32
1.4%
2.4%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
$/MWh
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
Charging Cost
$/MWh
$50
$50
$50
$50
$50
$50
$50
$50
$50
$50
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
80%
72%
93%
91%
65%
63%
86%
86%
75%
76%
$/MWh
$221
$347
$321
$658
$248
$927
$419
$1,247
$365
$948
O&M % of Capex
21
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
Lithium
Distribution Services
Flywheel
MW
10
10
10
10
Duration
Hours
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Usable Energy
MWh
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
350
350
350
350
Project Life
Years
20
20
20
20
MWh
8,400
8,400
8,400
8,400
MWh
168,000
168,000
$/kWh
$780
$1,300
$/kWh
$420
$420
$/kWh
$180
$258
$/kWh
$1,380
$/kWh
$1,978
168,000
168,000
---
$270
$1,296
$2,070
$9,933
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 10
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 15
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 10
$302
$302
$0
$0
After Year 15
$0
$0
$0
$0
$/kWh
$19
$40
$27
$129
O&M % of Capex
1.4%
2.0%
1.3%
1.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
$/MWh
$0
$0
$0
$0
Charging Cost
$/MWh
$66
$66
$66
$66
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
93%
93%
82%
85%
$/MWh
$211
$275
$276
$989
O&M Cost
$/kWh
22
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
MW
Zinc
4
Flow Battery
4
Lithium
4
Lead
4
Sodium
4
Duration
Hours
Usable Energy
MWh
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Operating Days/Year
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
Project Life
Years
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
MWh
4,800
4,800
4,800
4,800
4,800
4,800
4,800
4,800
4,800
4,800
MWh
96,000
96,000
96,000
96,000
$/kWh
$247
$420
$250
$/kWh
$57
$57
$57
$/kWh
$46
$72
$46
$/kWh
$350
$549
$353
$1,154
$/kWh
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$317
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 10
$153
$202
$79
$253
$209
$304
$333
$0
$269
$0
$0
$0
$222
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 10
$38
$38
$38
$38
$38
$38
$38
$38
$38
$38
After Year 15
Replacement Capital CostAC
96,000
96,000
96,000
96,000
96,000
96,000
$946
$435
$1,088
$570
$2,485
$425
$1,377
$57
$57
$57
$57
$57
$57
$57
$150
$74
$172
$94
$381
$72
$215
$566
$1,316
$721
$2,924
$555
$1,649
$0
$1,033
$0
$/kWh
After Year 15
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$/kWh
$5
$14
$4
$34
$9
$14
$15
$73
$11
$33
O&M % of Capex
1.5%
2.5%
1.1%
3.0%
1.6%
1.1%
2.0%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
$/MWh
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
Charging Cost
$/MWh
$53
$53
$53
$53
$53
$53
$53
$53
$53
$53
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
Efficiency
80%
72%
65%
63%
93%
91%
86%
86%
75%
76%
$/MWh
$285
$426
$288
$923
$400
$789
$516
$1,692
$426
$1,129
O&M Cost
23
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
Zinc
Flow Battery
Lithium
Lead
Sodium
MW
Duration
Hours
Usable Energy
MWh
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
Operating Days/Year
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
1,750
Project Life
Years
MWh
1,750
1,750
1,750
1,750
1,750
1,750
1,750
1,750
1,750
MWh
35,000
35,000
35,000
35,000
35,000
35,000
35,000
35,000
35,000
35,000
$/kWh
$247
$420
$550
$1,275
$510
$1,313
$570
$1,960
$499
$1,639
$/kWh
$112
$112
$112
$112
$112
$112
$112
$112
$112
$112
$/kWh
$54
$80
$99
$208
$93
$214
$102
$311
$92
$263
$/kWh
$413
$612
$761
$1,595
$715
$1,638
$784
$2,383
$702
$2,014
$/kWh
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$788
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 10
$153
$202
$0
$630
$245
$367
$333
$686
$316
After Year 15
$0
$0
$0
$551
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 10
$75
$75
$75
$75
$75
$75
$75
$75
$75
$75
$0
$1,229
$/kWh
After Year 15
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$/kWh
$7
$15
$19
$40
$12
$18
$16
$59
$14
$41
O&M % of Capex
1.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
1.6%
1.1%
2.0%
2.5%
2.1%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
$/MWh
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
Charging Cost
$/MWh
$58
$58
$58
$58
$58
$58
$58
$58
$58
$58
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Efficiency
80%
72%
76%
72%
93%
91%
86%
86%
75%
76%
$/MWh
$245
$345
$373
$950
$355
$686
$402
$1,068
$379
$957
O&M Cost
24
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
Zinc
Lithium
Flow Battery
Lead
Sodium
MW
Duration
Hours
Usable Energy
MWh
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
Operating Days/Year
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
1,400
Project Life
Years
MWh
1,400
1,400
1,400
1,400
1,400
1,400
1,400
1,400
1,400
MWh
28,000
28,000
28,000
28,000
28,000
28,000
28,000
28,000
28,000
28,000
$/kWh
$315
$560
$435
$1,088
$635
$2,176
$710
$1,960
$425
$1,377
$/kWh
$224
$224
$224
$224
$224
$224
$224
$224
$224
$224
$/kWh
$81
$118
$99
$197
$129
$360
$140
$328
$240
$/kWh
$620
$902
$758
$1,508
$988
$2,760
$/kWh
After Year 5
$0
$0
$274
$442
$0
$728
After Year 10
$195
$269
$209
$304
$0
After Year 15
$0
$0
$152
$213
$0
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 10
$151
$151
$151
$151
$97
$2,512
$747
$1,841
$0
$980
$284
$1,101
$582
$415
$686
$269
$1,033
$510
$0
$588
$254
$1,033
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$151
$151
$151
$151
$151
$151
$1,074
$/kWh
After Year 15
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$/kWh
$11
$22
$13
$18
$24
$81
$22
$62
$16
$38
O&M % of Capex
1.7%
2.4%
1.8%
1.2%
2.4%
2.9%
2.1%
2.5%
2.1%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
$/MWh
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
Charging Cost
$/MWh
$108
$108
$108
$108
$108
$108
$108
$108
$108
$108
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
Efficiency
80%
72%
93%
91%
67%
63%
86%
86%
75%
76%
$/MWh
$319
$416
$369
$562
$429
$1,046
$433
$946
$411
$835
O&M Cost
25
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
Zinc
Lithium
Co
Flow Battery
Sodium
Lead
MW
Duration
Hours
Usable Energy
MWh
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
2,100
Project Life
Years
MWh
2,100
2,100
2,100
2,100
2,100
2,100
2,100
2,100
2,100
MWh
42,000
42,000
42,000
42,000
42,000
42,000
42,000
42,000
42,000
42,000
$/kWh
$247
$420
$435
$1,088
$250
$1,020
$425
$1,377
$570
$1,960
$/kWh
$41
$41
$41
$41
$41
$41
$41
$41
$41
$41
$/kWh
$43
$69
$71
$169
$44
$159
$70
$213
$92
$300
$/kWh
$331
$530
$547
$1,298
$335
$1,220
$536
$1,630
$703
$2,301
$/kWh
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$630
$0
After Year 10
$153
$202
$209
$0
$88
$504
$269
After Year 15
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$441
$0
$0
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 10
$27
$27
$27
$27
$27
$27
$27
$0
$0
$0
$333
$686
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$27
$27
$27
$1,033
$/kWh
After Year 15
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$/kWh
$5
$13
$9
$14
$3
$30
$11
$33
$14
$57
O&M % of Capex
1.4%
2.5%
1.6%
1.0%
1.0%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
$/MWh
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
Charging Cost
$/MWh
$281
$281
$281
$281
$281
$281
$281
$281
$281
$281
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Efficiency
80%
72%
93%
91%
65%
72%
75%
76%
86%
86%
$/MWh
$523
$677
$581
$870
$593
$1,231
$663
$1,259
$700
$1,533
O&M Cost
26
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
Zinc
Lithium
Commercia
Flow Battery
Lead
Sodium
MW
Duration
Hours
Usable Energy
MWh
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
350
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
1,400
Project Life
Years
MWh
1,400
1,400
1,400
1,400
1,400
1,400
1,400
1,400
1,400
MWh
14,000
14,000
14,000
14,000
14,000
14,000
14,000
14,000
14,000
14,000
$/kWh
$247
$420
$325
$1,088
$250
$1,020
$570
$1,960
$425
$1,377
$/kWh
$61
$61
$61
$61
$61
$61
$61
$61
$61
$61
$/kWh
$46
$72
$58
$172
$47
$162
$95
$303
$73
$216
$/kWh
$355
$554
$444
$1,321
$358
$1,244
$726
$2,325
$560
$1,654
$/kWh
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$630
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 10
$0
$0
$0
$0
$84
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 15
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 10
$41
$41
$41
$41
$41
$41
$41
$41
$41
$41
$/kWh
After Year 15
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$/kWh
$5
$14
$5
$14
$4
$31
$15
$58
$11
$33
O&M % of Capex
1.5%
2.5%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
2.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
$/MWh
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
Charging Cost
$/MWh
$70
$70
$70
$70
$70
$70
$70
$70
$70
$70
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
Efficiency
80%
72%
85%
91%
65%
72%
86%
86%
75%
76%
$/MWh
$310
$452
$351
$838
$349
$1,083
$529
$1,511
$444
$1,092
O&M Cost
27
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
Zinc
Lithium
Residential
Lead
Flow Battery
MW
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Duration
Hours
Usable Energy
MWh
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
Project Life
Years
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
MWh
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
500
500
MWh
500
500
500
500
500
500
$/kWh
$247
$390
$399
$1,051
$529
$1,913
$414
$825
$/kWh
$235
$235
$235
$235
$235
$235
$235
$235
$/kWh
$72
$94
$95
$193
$115
$322
$97
$159
$/kWh
$555
$719
$729
$1,479
$879
$2,471
$746
$1,219
$/kWh
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$276
$525
After Year 10
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 10
$168
$168
$168
$168
$168
$168
$168
$168
After Year 15
Replacement Capital CostAC
$/kWh
After Year 15
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$/kWh
$11
$19
$14
$20
$20
$63
$19
$31
2.0%
2.6%
2.0%
1.3%
2.2%
2.5%
2.6%
2.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
$/MWh
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
Charging Cost
O&M Cost
O&M % of Capex
$/MWh
$108
$108
$108
$108
$108
$108
$108
$108
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
Efficiency
80%
72%
93%
91%
86%
86%
77%
72%
$/MWh
$661
$833
$784
$1,363
$928
$2,291
$974
$1,504
Lithium
28
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.
Lithium
Lead
Flow Battery
MW
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
Duration
Hours
Usable Energy
MWh
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
300
300
300
300
300
300
Project Life
Years
10
10
10
10
10
10
MWh
30
30
30
30
MWh
30
30
$/kWh
$471
$1,225
$529
$1,913
$25
$1,129
$/kWh
$475
$475
$475
$475
$475
$475
$/kWh
$142
$255
$151
$358
$75
$241
$/kWh
$1,088
$575
$1,845
$/kWh
$1,955
$1,155
$2,747
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$381
After Year 10
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 5
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 10
$315
$315
$315
$315
$315
$0
After Year 15
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
After Year 15
Replacement Capital CostAC
O&M Cost
$/kWh
$/kWh
$35
$41
$39
$82
$28
$39
3.3%
2.1%
3.4%
3.0%
4.9%
2.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
$/MWh
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
Charging Cost
$/MWh
$125
$125
$125
$125
$125
$125
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
92%
89%
86%
86%
76%
63%
$/MWh
$1,034
$721
$1,657
O&M % of Capex
$1,596
$1,101
$2,238
29
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.