Topic-2: Forecasting

Power Demand for Lime Production

Arif Susanto
Environmental, Health & Safety Department, Concentrating Division PT Freeport Indonesia
Lecturer:
Dr. Mursyid Hasan Basri, ST, MT.
Background
Limestone mill has a maximum production capacity of 400 metric ton quicklime (CaCO3) per
day. Limestone production adapted to the operational demands of concentrating plant and other uses such
as mixing overburden, ARD (Acid Rock Drainage) water neutralization and others. To produce CaO
(dehydrated lime), the plant requires fuel and electrical power to run the system operational. The required
power is obtained from Puncak Jaya Power (PJP) supplied from the coal plant were located at Portsite to
Mahaka Lime Concentrating Division plant.
In the planning lime production, annual production target has increased year by year, inline with
increasing production capacity and ARD management within Concentrating Division. In year 2015 targets
and the amount of production and power requirements described in the following data:
Summary Lime Production and Power Demand in 2015
Month
Lime
Production
January
3257
February
2676
March
2472
April
3461
May
3252
June
3268
July
3873
August
3450
Septembe
2966
r
October
2682
November
2630

Power Consumption
631781
628645
407788
624851
684114
628243
724650
463879
595625
190433
607533

Objective and Problem

Planning and estimate power needs area very important in terms of planning to increase
production capacity, so as not to exceed the maximum capacity installed and projected power needs can
be set to be distributed to increase production capacity at the concentrating plant.
Therefore, the estimated total power demands for the coming year is projested from year 2015
production target. And thus the current work plan for mining and environmental engineering meeting
obtained an equation the amount of power demands for next year.
Proposed Action
To get the power consumption demand equation is done forcasting of the data listed above through linear
regression and quadratic approach, where model for linear regression described as:
Linear
and for Quadratic

Yt = 0 + 1T
Yt = 0 + 1T + 2T2

Model Summary and Parameter Estimates

Dependent Variable: Power
Equation

Model Summary

Parameter Estimates

R Square

df1

df2

Sig.

Constant

b1

Linear

.278

3.472

.095

-7297.637

184.418

Quadratic

.283

1.581

.264

-575405.671

555.126

b2
-.059

The independent variable is CaO.

Conclusion and Recommendation

From summary and parameter estimates while power demand as dependent variable and CaO is
independent variable, both of model could describes as following equation:
Linear
Yt = -7297.637 + 184.418T
and
Quadratic
Yt = -575405.671 + 555.126T 0.059T2
Refer to linear and quadratic graph above, we can see model is eligible for forecasting. The
linear model looks for patterns of dots spread out in a linear, but for quadratic model was more
appropriate for forecasting the data and following table is forecasting for power demand for next year:
Month
January

Lime Production
3257

2015
Power Consumption
631781

Power Demand Forecasting in 2016

Linear
Quadratic
593351.92710
602639.78057

February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November

2676
2472
3461
3252
3268
3873
3450
2966
2682
2630

628645
407788
624851
684114
628243
724650
463879
595625
190433
607533

48620504443
448583.76377
630973.20776
592429.83689
595380.52557
706953.44126
628944.60930
539686.27675
487311.55269
477721.81448

484829.21173
433953.18880
634494.75951
601796.95999
604483.53342
683756.92317
632903.17149
548644.93072
486250.73547
473788.80513