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Rpt. 26628803
29-Jul-2015
MERITOR INC
PIPER JAFFRAY - COMPANY REPORT
- POTTER, ALEXANDER
2 - 10
Rpt. 26627627
29-Jul-2015
MERITOR INC
KEYBANC CAPITAL MARKETS
- HOSELTON, BRETT D
11 - 18
Rpt. 26624661
29-Jul-2015
MERITOR INC
KEYBANC CAPITAL MARKETS
- HOSELTON, BRETT D
19 - 21
Rpt. 26492588
13-Jul-2015
MERITOR INC
BUYSELLSIGNALS RESEARCH
- RESEARCH TEAM, ET AL
22 - 48
Rpt. 26260797
14-Jun-2015
MERITOR INC
KEYBANC CAPITAL MARKETS
- HOSELTON, BRETT D
49 - 59
Rpt. 25943897
29-Apr-2015
MERITOR INC
PIPER JAFFRAY - COMPANY REPORT
- POTTER, ALEXANDER
60 - 68
www.thomsonreuters.com
COMPANY NOTE
July 29, 2015
Neutral
PRICE: US$13.79
Price as of the close July 29, 2015
TARGET: US$14.00
7.0x 2016E EV/EBITDA (EBITDA $393.2m,
$1.36bn net debt, 100.3m shares)
Alexander E. Potter
Sr Research Analyst, Piper Jaffray & Co.
612 303-6709, alexander.e.potter@pjc.com
Winnie Dong
Research Analyst, Piper Jaffray & Co.
212 284-9338, winnie.x.dong@pjc.com
Strong Q3 results marked by solid sales and EPS performance. Revenue of $909M
missed our estimate of $919M but bested consensus of $908M (though revenue would
have been a strong "beat" if not for continued FX headwinds). Q3 adjusted EBITDA
margin of 9.6% topped our estimate of 8.9%, and management guided this metric
up to 9.3% for the full year (up from 9.0%-9.2% previously). Adjusted EPS was
$0.41 which was well above PJC/street estimates of $0.33/$0.32. Full year EPS is now
guided at $1.40-$1.50 (up from $1.30-$1.40), thanks to higher margins and an equity
repurchase program that will last through the end of 2016.
Changes
Rating
Price Tgt
FY15E Rev (mil)
FY16E Rev (mil)
FY15E EPS
FY16E EPS
Previous
US$13.00
US$3,528.5
US$3,801.8
US$1.36
US$1.74
Growth drivers needed to leverage M2016 cost cuts. For evidence that MTOR has
used the M2016 initiative to deliver higher margins, one need look no further than
the company's operational performance over the last several quarters. We are now
firmly convinced that a 10% adjusted EBITDA margin is achievable in 2016, even
at revenue levels far below those originally envisioned by the plan. But as always,
revenue growth remains our primary sticking point. An expanded relationship with
PCAR does suggest that MTOR is finding ways to grow despite a peaking truck cycle
in North America, but it's unclear whether these wins can be replicated, or whether
vertical integration at other OEMs might erode the impact of these new revenue
streams.
Current
Neutral
US$14.00
US$3,541.9
US$3,803.1
US$1.47
US$1.80
US$15.65 / US$9.46
100.3
US$1,383.1
1,210
US$(6.16)
US$(7.50)
151.0%
US$0.00
Sep
16
15
Staying Neutral, raising price target to $14 (from $13). We're maintaining our Neutral
14
stance on the shares but raising our price target to $14, due primarily to stronger
margins and a recovering truck cycle in Europe. Our price target remains based on 7x
2016 EV/EBITDA. We think cost-cutting and operational efficiency are positives, but
evidence of sustainable top-line growth will be needed before these cost savings can
be fully leveraged. We will remain Neutral on MTOR until such evidence materializes
(or until the stock's multiple contracts).
13
12
11
10
9
Jul-14 Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Source: Bloomberg
R I S K S T O A C H I E V E M E N T O F P R I C E TA R G E T
MTOR makes axles, drivelines, suspensions, and brakes for trucks & machinery.
YEAR
REVENUE (US$ m)
Dec
Mar
Jun
Sep
FY
CY
FY RM
CY RM
Dec
Mar
Jun
Sep
FY
CY
FY P/E
CY P/E
2014A
900.0
954.0
979.0
933.0
3,751.0
3,752.0
0.4x
0.4x
0.12
0.22
0.28
0.35
1.02
1.21
13.5x
11.4x
2015E
879.0A
864.0A
909.0A
889.9
3,541.9
3,604.6
0.4x
0.4x
0.35A
0.41A
0.41A
0.30
1.47
1.52
9.4x
9.1x
2016E
941.8
955.5
985.0
920.8
3,803.1
3,768.0
0.4x
0.4x
0.40
0.45
0.51
0.43
1.80
1.73
7.7x
8.0x
Piper Jaffray does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware
that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as
only a single factor in making their investment decisions. This report should be read in conjunction with important disclosure
information, including an attestation under Regulation Analyst certification, found on pages 8 - 9 of this report or at the following
site: http://www.piperjaffray.com/researchdisclosures.
Meritor, Inc.
Page 1 of 9
2
Alexander E. Potter
(612) 303-6709
alexander.e.potter@pjc.com
Income Statement
(millions, except per share amount)
Date: 7/29/2015
Current disclosure information for this company can be found at:
http://www.piperjaffray.com/researchdisclosures
Net sales
Cost of sales
Gross profit
Selling, general and administrative
Other expenses
Operating Income from con. Op.
Equity share unconsolidated affiliates
Other income(expense)
EBIT
Net interest income (expense)
Income before income taxes
Income taxes
Income from continuing operations
Minority interest
Earnings from discontinued ops
Net income (loss) attributed to MTOR
Adjustments
Adjusted net income (loss) from cont. OP
Diluted income per common share:
Reported EPS (GAAP)
Operating EPS (Non-GAAP)
Weighted average diluted shares
EBITDA
1Q
Dec-12
891.0
808.0
83.0
62.0
7.0
14.0
9.0
23.0
(29.0)
(6.0)
10.0
(16.0)
(5.0)
(21.0)
5.0
(11.0)
FY2013
2Q
3Q
Mar-13
Jun-13
908.0
993.0
813.0
884.0
95.0
109.0
65.0
67.0
12.0
48.0
18.0
(6.0)
10.0
15.0
28.0
9.0
(25.0)
(45.0)
3.0
(36.0)
7.0
1.0
(4.0)
(37.0)
(1.0)
(4.0)
(38.0)
10.0
70.0
6.0
33.0
4Q
Sep-13
902.0
803.0
99.0
60.0
(54.0)
93.0
8.0
3.0
111.0
(27.0)
84.0
45.0
39.0
2.0
4.0
41.0
(26.0)
11.0
1QA
Dec-13
900.0
795.0
105.0
59.0
2.0
44.0
8.0
52.0
(27.0)
25.0
11.0
14.0
2.0
(1.0)
11.0
1.0
13.0
FY2014A
2QA
3QA
Mar-14
Jun-14
954.0
979.0
836.0
855.0
118.0
124.0
66.0
53.0
2.0
1.0
50.0
70.0
9.0
201.0
59.0
271.0
(48.0)
(22.0)
11.0
249.0
8.0
12.0
3.0
237.0
2.0
3.0
(3.0)
4.0
234.0
23.0
(208.0)
24.0
29.0
($0.22)
($0.11)
96.7
46.0
($0.04)
$0.06
97.2
58.0
($0.39)
$0.34
97.2
87.0
$0.42
$0.11
98.7
70.0
$0.11
$0.13
98.7
72.0
$0.04
$0.25
97.6
80.0
Growth Rates:
Total Sales
EBIT
EBITDA
Net income
EPS (operating)
-23.1%
-34.3%
-41.8%
-4.5%
-197.7%
-21.7%
-61.6%
-38.9%
-120.0%
-81.3%
-10.8%
-89.9%
-7.4%
-177.6%
-10.8%
-8.5%
217.1%
-11.4%
720.0%
-65.1%
1.0%
126.1%
56.5%
-152.4%
-215.8%
5.1%
110.7%
37.9%
-200.0%
298.4%
9.3%
7.0%
5.2%
-166.7%
10.5%
7.2%
6.4%
233.3%
11.0%
6.7%
8.8%
-2.8%
11.0%
6.7%
7.8%
53.6%
11.7%
6.6%
8.0%
44.0%
12.4%
6.9%
8.4%
72.7%
Meritor, Inc.
$2.31
$0.29
101.1
82.0
4QA
Sep-14
933.0
793.0
140.0
80.0
7.0
53.0
10.0
63.0
(33.0)
30.0
30.0
1.0
(26.0)
3.0
6.0
35.0
1QA
Dec-14
879.0
764.0
115.0
65.0
2.0
48.0
9.0
2.0
59.0
(19.0)
40
7.0
33
1.0
(3.0)
29.0
3.0
35
FY2015E
2QA
3QA
Mar-15
Jun-15
864.0
909.0
749.0
785.0
115.0
124.0
57.0
65.0
3.0
8.0
55.0
51.0
9.0
10.0
2.0
(1.0)
66.0
60.0
(21.0)
(38.0)
45
22
6.0
6.0
39
16
1.0
4.0
(2.0)
43.0
13.0
3.0
26.0
42
41
4Q
Sep-15
889.9
774.2
115.7
56.0
(22.7)
33
2.3
31
1.0
29.9
30
1Q
Dec-15
941.8
819.3
122.4
71.7
(22.5)
49
8.6
41
1.0
39.6
40
FY2016E
2Q
3Q
Mar-16
Jun-16
955.5
985.0
831.3
856.9
124.2
128.0
76.9
82.4
(22.3)
(22.1)
55
60
9.6
10.6
45
50
1.0
1.0
44.1
48.8
44
49
4Q
Sep-16
920.8
801.1
119.7
72.9
(21.8)
51
8.9
42
1.0
41.2
41
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015E
FY2016E
4,418.0
3,933.0
485.0
285.0
27.0
173.0
52.0
7.0
232.0
(95.0)
137.0
56.0
81.0
11.0
(18.0)
52.0
41.0
111.0
3,694.0
3,308.0
386.0
254.0
13.0
119.0
42.0
3.0
171.0
(126.0)
45.0
63.0
(18.0)
2.0
(2.0)
(22.0)
59.0
39.0
3,751.0
3,261.0
490.0
257.0
12.0
221.0
228.0
449.0
(130.0)
319.0
32.0
287.0
5.0
(32.0)
252.0
(178.0)
106.0
3,541.9
3,072.2
469.7
187.0
13.0
154.0
28.0
3.0
241.0
(100.7)
140.3
21.3
118.9
3.0
(1.0)
114.9
32.0
147.9
3,803.1
3,308.7
494.4
304.0
(88.7)
215.3
37.7
177.6
4.0
173.6
173.6
$2.54
$1.06
99.7
320.0
$1.14
$1.47
100.9
331.1
$1.80
$1.80
96.4
393.2
$0.03
$0.35
101.3
80.0
$0.29
$0.35
101.2
79.0
$0.42
$0.41
102.9
87.0
$0.13
$0.41
100.3
87.0
$0.30
$0.30
99.2
78.1
$0.40
$0.40
98.1
93.9
$0.45
$0.45
97.0
99.2
$0.51
$0.51
95.9
104.7
$0.43
$0.43
94.7
95.4
$0.54
$1.14
97.2
345.0
($0.22)
$0.40
97.1
261.0
-1.4%
2911.1%
-5.7%
-715.8%
-15.5%
3.4%
-43.2%
14.3%
-92.7%
210.0%
-2.3%
13.5%
9.7%
163.6%
162.6%
-9.4%
11.9%
8.7%
975.0%
66.0%
-7.2%
-77.9%
6.1%
-94.4%
42.5%
-4.6%
-11.2%
-2.4%
897.6%
-12.7%
7.1%
21.6%
18.8%
36.6%
16.8%
10.6%
16.5%
14.0%
2.5%
11.3%
8.4%
37.3%
20.4%
275.2%
24.5%
3.5%
30.3%
22.2%
37.5%
44.0%
-4.4%
-8.7%
NA
-17.5%
34.1%
-16.4%
-26.3%
-24.3%
-142.3%
-64.9%
1.5%
162.6%
22.6%
-1245.5%
165.0%
-5.6%
-46.3%
3.5%
-54.4%
38.7%
7.4%
26.1%
18.8%
51.1%
22.4%
12.7%
5.4%
8.4%
4.8%
15.0%
8.6%
8.6%
0.0%
13.1%
7.4%
9.0%
17.5%
13.3%
6.6%
10.1%
13.3%
13.6%
7.2%
9.6%
27.3%
13.0%
0.0%
8.8%
7.0%
13.0%
0.0%
10.0%
17.5%
13.0%
0.0%
10.4%
17.5%
13.0%
0.0%
10.6%
17.5%
13.0%
0.0%
10.4%
17.5%
11.0%
6.5%
7.8%
40.9%
10.4%
6.9%
7.1%
140.0%
13.1%
6.9%
8.5%
10.0%
13.3%
5.3%
9.3%
15.2%
13.0%
0.0%
10.3%
17.5%
Page 2 of 9
3
1Q
Dec-12
Revenue by Segment & Geography
North America
Europe
S. America (mostly Brazil)
China
Other Asia Pacific (Includes India)
Total Commercial Truck & Industrial
Aftermarket & Trailer
Total Revenue (Before Intersegment)
Intersegment Eliminations
Total Consolidated Revenue
Sales Growth (y/y%) by Segment & Geography
North America
Europe
S. America (mostly Brazil)
China
Other Asia Pacific (Includes India)
Total Commercial Truck & Industrial
Aftermarket & Trailer
Total Revenue (Before Intersegment)
Intersegment Eliminations
Total Consolidated Revenue
Revenue Seasonality Assumptions
Commercial Truck & Industrial
Aftermarket & Trailer
Meritor, Inc.
FY2013
2Q
3Q
Mar-13
Jun-13
4Q
Sep-13
715
203
918
(27.0)
891
712
224
936
(28.0)
908
784
238
1,022
(29.0)
993
709
233
942
(33.0)
909
1QA
Dec-13
30.0
727
208
935
(28.0)
907
-26.7%
-6.9%
-23.1%
-20.6%
-23.1%
-25.2%
-7.8%
-21.7%
-20.0%
-21.7%
-13.2%
-2.5%
-10.9%
-14.7%
-10.8%
-9.5%
0.4%
-7.2%
13.8%
-7.8%
24.5%
22.6%
24.4%
24.9%
26.8%
26.5%
24.3%
25.9%
FY2014A
2QA
3QA
Mar-14
Jun-14
4QA
Sep-14
1QA
Dec-14
FY2015E
2QA
3QA
Mar-15
Jun-15
4Q
Sep-15
1Q
Dec-15
FY2016E
2Q
3Q
Mar-16
Jun-16
4Q
Sep-16
(PJC est)
FY2012
(PJC est)
FY2013
(PJC est)
FY2014
FY2015E
FY2016E
763
225
988
(34.0)
954
761
253
1,014
(35.0)
979
729
240
969
(36.0)
933
703
208
911
(32.0)
879
681
212
893
(29.0)
864
705
233
938
(29.0)
909
690
230
920
(30.2)
890
765
209
974
(32.1)
942
762
226
988
(32.6)
955
777
242
1,019
(33.6)
985
720
232
952
(31.4)
921
1,836.4
712.7
484.0
262.6
317.2
3,613.0
937.0
4,550.0
(132.0)
4,418.0
1,468.6
616.8
463.2
142.4
229.0
2,920.0
898.0
3,818.0
(117.0)
3,701.0
1,527.8
640.3
422.5
151.2
238.2
2,980.0
920.0
3,900.0
(134.0)
3,766.0
1,722.8
610.9
144.5
98.3
202.5
2,778.9
883.2
3,662.1
(120.2)
3,541.9
1,845.3
659.7
151.7
103.2
263.2
3,023.2
909.7
3,932.9
(129.8)
3,803.1
1.7%
2.5%
1.9%
3.7%
1.8%
7.2%
0.4%
5.6%
21.4%
5.1%
-2.9%
6.3%
-0.8%
20.7%
-1.4%
2.8%
3.0%
2.9%
9.1%
2.6%
-3.3%
0.0%
-2.6%
14.3%
-3.1%
-10.7%
-5.8%
-9.6%
-14.7%
-9.4%
-7.4%
-7.9%
-7.5%
-17.1%
-7.2%
-5.4%
-4.1%
-5.1%
-16.2%
-4.6%
8.8%
0.6%
6.9%
0.4%
7.1%
11.9%
6.6%
10.6%
12.4%
10.6%
10.2%
3.9%
8.6%
15.9%
8.4%
4.3%
1.0%
3.5%
4.1%
3.5%
20.4%
-17.0%
-37.2%
-18.6%
-9.7%
-5.6%
-1.3%
-4.8%
-14.8%
-4.4%
-20.0%
-13.5%
-4.3%
-45.8%
-27.8%
-19.2%
-4.2%
-16.1%
-11.4%
-16.2%
4.0%
3.8%
-8.8%
6.2%
4.0%
2.1%
2.4%
2.1%
14.5%
1.8%
12.8%
-4.6%
-65.8%
-35.0%
-15.0%
-6.7%
-4.0%
-6.1%
-10.3%
-6.0%
7.1%
8.0%
5.0%
5.0%
30.0%
8.8%
3.0%
7.4%
8.0%
7.4%
24.4%
22.6%
25.6%
24.5%
25.5%
27.5%
24.5%
26.1%
25.3%
23.6%
24.5%
24.0%
25.4%
26.4%
24.8%
26.1%
25.3%
23.0%
25.2%
24.8%
25.7%
26.6%
23.8%
25.6%
Page 3 of 4
9
Alexander E. Potter
(612) 303-6709
alexander.e.potter@pjc.com
Segment Analysis
Segment Analysis
Revenue by Segment
Commercial Truck & Industrial
Aftermarket & Trailer
Intersegment Eliminations
Total Consolidated Revenue
Segment EBITDA & EBIT
Commercial Truck & Industrial
Aftermarket & Trailer
Total segment EBITDA
Unallocated costs, net
Adjusted EBITDA
Depreciation and Amortization
Other costs
EBIT
1Q
Dec-12
FY2013
2Q
3Q
Mar-13
Jun-13
4Q
Sep-13
1QA
Dec-13
FY2014A
2QA
3QA
Mar-14
Jun-14
4QA
Sep-14
1QA
Dec-14
FY2015E
2QA
3QA
Mar-15 Jun-15
4Q
Sep-15
1Q
Dec-15
FY2016E
2Q
3Q
Mar-16
Jun-16
4Q
Sep-16
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015E FY2016E
715.0
203.0
(27.0)
891.0
712.0
224.0
(28.0)
908.0
784.0
238.0
(29.0)
993.0
709.0
227.0
(34.0)
902.0
727.0
202.0
(29.0)
900.0
763.0
225.0
(34.0)
954.0
761.0
253.0
(35.0)
979.0
729.0
240.0
(36.0)
933.0
703.0
208.0
(32.0)
879.0
681.0
212.0
(29.0)
864.0
705.0
233.0
(29.0)
909.0
689.9
230.2
(30.2)
889.9
764.6
209.3
(32.1)
941.8
762.2
225.9
(32.6)
955.5
776.6
242.0
(33.6)
985.0
719.8
232.4
(31.4)
920.8
3,613.0
937.0
(132.0)
4,418.0
2,920.0
892.0
(118.0)
3,694.0
2,980.0
907.0
(136.0)
3,751.0
2,778.9
883.2
(120.2)
3,541.9
3,023.2
909.7
(129.8)
3,803.1
34.0
13.0
47.0
(1.0)
46.0
(16.0)
(7.0)
23.0
37.0
22.0
59.0
(1.0)
58.0
(17.0)
(13.0)
28.0
67.0
25.0
92.0
(5.0)
87.0
(16.0)
(62.0)
9.0
54.0
24.0
78.0
(8.0)
70.0
(17.0)
58.0
111.0
53.0
21.0
74.0
(2.0)
72.0
(16.0)
(4.0)
52.0
57.0
24.0
81.0
(1.0)
80.0
(17.0)
(4.0)
59.0
55.0
28.0
83.0
(1.0)
82.0
(17.0)
206.0
271.0
53.0
34.0
87.0
(7.0)
80.0
(17.0)
63.0
56.0
25.0
81.0
(2.0)
79.0
(15.0)
(5.0)
59.0
57.0
30.0
87.0
87.0
(17.0)
(4.0)
66.0
58.0
31.0
89.0
(2.0)
87.0
(17.0)
(10.0)
60.0
49.7
30.4
80.1
(2.0)
78.1
(17.1)
(5.0)
56.0
68.1
27.8
95.9
(2.0)
93.9
(17.2)
(5.0)
71.7
70.9
30.3
101.2
(2.0)
99.2
(17.3)
(5.0)
76.9
74.6
32.2
106.7
(2.0)
104.7
(17.3)
(5.0)
82.4
66.2
31.1
97.4
(2.0)
95.4
(17.4)
(5.0)
72.9
270.0
81.0
351.0
(6.0)
345.0
(63.0)
(61.0)
221.0
192.0
84.0
276.0
(15.0)
261.0
(66.0)
(23.0)
172.0
218.0
112.0
330.0
(10.0)
320.0
(67.0)
198.0
445.0
220.7
116.4
337.1
(6.0)
331.1
(66.1)
(24.0)
241.0
279.7
121.4
401.2
(8.0)
393.2
(69.2)
(20.0)
304.0
EBITDA Margins
Commercial Truck & Industrial
Aftermarket & Trailer
Total segment EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA
EBIT
4.8%
6.4%
5.3%
5.2%
2.6%
5.2%
9.8%
6.5%
6.4%
3.1%
8.5%
10.5%
9.3%
8.8%
0.9%
7.6%
10.6%
8.6%
7.8%
12.3%
7.3%
10.4%
8.2%
8.0%
5.8%
7.5%
10.7%
8.5%
8.4%
6.2%
7.2%
11.1%
8.5%
8.4%
27.7%
7.3%
14.2%
9.3%
8.6%
6.8%
8.0%
12.0%
9.2%
9.0%
6.7%
8.4%
14.2%
10.1%
10.1%
7.6%
8.2%
13.3%
9.8%
9.6%
6.6%
7.2%
13.2%
9.0%
8.8%
6.3%
8.9%
13.3%
10.2%
10.0%
7.6%
9.3%
13.4%
10.6%
10.4%
8.0%
9.6%
13.3%
10.8%
10.6%
8.4%
9.2%
13.4%
10.6%
10.4%
7.9%
Incremental Margins
Commercial Truck & Industrial (y/y)
Aftermarket & Trailer (y/y)
Total Adjusted EBITDA (y/y)
Total Adjusted EBITDA (q/q)
10.4%
26.7%
12.3%
34.7%
15.8%
10.5%
14.7%
70.6%
3.4%
-50.0%
5.8%
34.1%
12.2%
-120.0%
10.7%
18.7%
158.3%
-800.0%
288.9%
-100.0%
39.2%
200.0%
47.8%
14.8%
52.2%
20.0%
35.7%
8.0%
-5.0%
76.9%
32.3%
4.3%
-12.5%
66.7%
-33.3%
1.9%
0.0%
-46.2%
-7.8%
-53.3%
-5.4%
-15.0%
-7.1%
0.0%
8.5%
36.9%
4.5%
46.8%
19.6%
218.1%
23.7%
30.5%
17.1%
2.0%
13.3%
38.4%
23.1%
13.2%
23.3%
18.9%
55.2%
34.0%
55.9%
14.6%
Meritor, Inc.
FY2012
7.5%
8.6%
7.9%
7.8%
5.0%
6.6%
9.4%
7.5%
7.1%
4.7%
7.3%
12.3%
8.8%
8.5%
11.9%
7.9%
13.2%
9.5%
9.3%
6.8%
9.3%
13.4%
10.5%
10.3%
8.0%
11.3%
-6.7%
11.6%
43.3%
186.7%
103.5%
-1.3%
-18.4%
-5.3%
24.2%
19.1%
23.8%
Page 4 of 9
5
Alexander E. Potter
(612) 303-6709
alexander.e.potter@pjc.com
Balance Sheet
(millions, except per share amount)
1Q
Dec-12
ASSETS
Cash and cash equivalents
Accounts receivable
Inventories
Other current assets
Total current assets
PP&E
Goodwill
Other assets
Total Assets
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
Accounts payable, deferred revenues and other
Other current liabilities
Short-term debt (incl. curr. port. of LT debt)
Total current liabilities
Long term debt
Retirement benefits
Others
Total Liabilities
Total equity (deficit)
Noncontrolling interests
% sales analysis:
LTM sales
LTM COGS
AR
Inventory
AP as % of COGS
Net Working Capital as % of Sales
Meritor, Inc.
FY2013
2Q
3Q
Mar-13
Jun-13
4Q
Sep-13
1QA
Dec-13
FY2014A
2QA
3QA
Mar-14
Jun-14
4QA
Sep-14
1QA
Dec-14
FY2015E
2QA
3QA
Mar-15
Jun-15
4Q
Sep-15
1Q
Dec-15
FY2016E
2Q
3Q
Mar-16
Jun-16
4Q
Sep-16
139.0
483.0
463.0
56.0
1,141.0
407.0
433.0
360.0
2,341.0
117.0
555.0
420.0
54.0
1,146.0
395.0
427.0
369.0
2,337.0
228.0
596.0
411.0
51.0
1,286.0
384.0
427.0
380.0
2,477.0
318.0
596.0
414.0
56.0
1,384.0
417.0
434.0
335.0
2,570.0
300.0
534.0
432.0
57.0
1,323.0
410.0
436.0
328.0
2,497.0
233.0
618.0
436.0
58.0
1,345.0
410.0
437.0
339.0
2,531.0
303.0
644.0
441.0
56.0
1,444.0
411.0
439.0
516.0
2,810.0
247.0
610.0
379.0
56.0
1,292.0
424.0
431.0
355.0
2,502.0
214.0
511.0
379.0
58.0
1,162.0
407.0
423.0
354.0
2,346.0
207.0
545.0
365.0
55.0
1,172.0
387.0
414.0
344.0
2,317.0
345.0
530.0
365.0
52.0
1,292.0
393.0
420.0
348.0
2,453.0
364.5
506.5
361.3
52.0
1,284.2
410.6
420.0
348.0
2,462.9
364.3
515.5
367.7
52.0
1,299.4
414.6
420.0
348.0
2,482.0
366.6
528.5
377.0
52.0
1,324.2
418.9
420.0
348.0
2,511.1
374.9
539.4
384.8
52.0
1,351.0
423.7
420.0
348.0
2,542.7
379.0
543.8
387.9
52.0
1,362.8
427.0
420.0
348.0
2,557.8
597.0
297.0
23.0
917.0
1,032.0
1,070.0
333.0
3,352.0
616.0
297.0
25.0
938.0
1,030.0
1,056.0
327.0
3,351.0
657.0
328.0
23.0
1,008.0
1,144.0
1,043.0
341.0
3,536.0
694.0
339.0
13.0
1,046.0
1,125.0
886.0
335.0
3,392.0
651.0
323.0
12.0
986.0
1,126.0
875.0
318.0
3,305.0
696.0
345.0
6.0
1,047.0
1,082.0
868.0
316.0
3,313.0
715.0
351.0
5.0
1,071.0
1,086.0
861.0
319.0
3,337.0
680.0
351.0
7.0
1,038.0
965.0
775.0
309.0
3,087.0
597.0
292.0
5.0
894.0
962.0
759.0
307.0
2,922.0
618.0
281.0
5.0
904.0
945.0
737.0
301.0
2,887.0
611.0
303.0
18.0
932.0
1,079.0
729.0
304.0
3,044.0
614.4
303.0
18.0
935.4
1,061.5
729.0
313.0
3,038.9
625.5
303.0
18.0
946.5
1,044.0
729.0
314.0
3,033.5
642.0
303.0
18.0
963.0
1,026.5
729.0
315.0
3,033.5
656.3
303.0
18.0
977.3
1,009.0
729.0
316.0
3,031.3
661.7
303.0
18.0
982.7
991.5
729.0
317.0
3,020.2
(1,041.0)
30.0
(1,042.0)
28.0
(1,086.0)
27.0
(850.0)
28.0
(838.0)
30.0
(813.0)
31.0
(558.0)
31.0
(612.0)
27.0
(603.0)
27.0
(596.0)
26.0
(618.0)
27.0
(603.1)
27.0
(578.5)
27.0
(549.4)
27.0
(515.6)
27.0
(489.5)
27.0
4,150.0
3,688.0
11.6%
11.2%
16.2%
8.0%
3,898.0
3,475.0
14.2%
10.8%
17.7%
8.7%
3,778.0
3,378.0
15.8%
10.9%
19.4%
8.8%
3,694.0
3,308.0
16.1%
11.2%
21.0%
9.0%
3,703.0
3,295.0
14.4%
11.7%
19.8%
9.1%
3,749.0
3,318.0
16.5%
11.6%
21.0%
9.1%
3,735.0
3,289.0
17.2%
11.8%
21.7%
9.2%
3,766.0
3,279.0
16.2%
10.1%
20.7%
8.9%
3,745.0
3,248.0
13.6%
10.1%
18.4%
8.8%
3,655.0
3,161.0
14.9%
10.0%
19.6%
8.9%
3,585.0
3,091.0
14.8%
10.2%
19.8%
8.6%
3,541.9
3,072.2
14.3%
10.2%
20.0%
8.1%
3,604.6
3,127.5
14.3%
10.2%
20.0%
7.7%
3,696.1
3,209.8
14.3%
10.2%
20.0%
7.3%
3,772.1
3,281.7
14.3%
10.2%
20.0%
7.0%
3,803.1
3,308.7
14.3%
10.2%
20.0%
6.9%
Page 5 of 9
6
Alexander E. Potter
(612) 303-6709
alexander.e.potter@pjc.com
1Q
Dec-12
Cash flows from operating activities:
Net income (loss)
(16.0)
Depreciation and amortization
16.0
Exp assoc. with share-based comp, stock option Deferred income taxes
Other
32.0
Loss on sale of assets
Changes in assets and liabilities:
Receivables
59.0
Inventories
(25.0)
Accounts payable
(100.0)
Accrued expenses
Other assets and liabilities
(47.0)
Net cash provided by operating activities
(81.0)
FY2013
2Q
3Q
Mar-13
Jun-13
4Q
Sep-13
1QA
Dec-13
FY2014A
2QA
3QA
Mar-14
Jun-14
4QA
Sep-14
1QA
Dec-14
FY2015E
2QA
3QA
Mar-15
Jun-15
4Q
Sep-15
1Q
Dec-15
FY2016E
2Q
3Q
Mar-16 Jun-16
4Q
Sep-16
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015E
FY2016E
(4.0)
17.0
(97.0)
-
(37.0)
16.0
62.0
-
39.0
18.0
41.0
-
14.0
16.0
81.0
-
3.0
17.0
(44.0)
-
237.0
17.0
(203.0)
-
30.0
17.0
10.0
-
33.0
15.0
46.0
-
39.0
17.0
(114.0)
-
16.0
17.0
174.0
-
30.9
17.1
-
40.6
17.2
-
45.1
17.3
-
49.8
17.3
-
42.2
17.4
-
81.0
63.0
108.0
-
(18.0)
67.0
38.0
-
284.0
67.0
(156.0)
-
118.9
66.1
106.0
-
(72.0)
43.0
19.0
66.0
(28.0)
(41.0)
9.0
41.0
(14.0)
36.0
(3.0)
37.0
(140.0)
(8.0)
62.0
(18.0)
(43.0)
(116.0)
(4.0)
(84.0)
(4.0)
45.0
89.0
22.0
(26.0)
(5.0)
19.0
46.0
85.0
34.0
62.0
(35.0)
(6.0)
112.0
99.0
(83.0)
(119.0)
(9.0)
(34.0)
14.0
21.0
95.0
38.0
15.0
(7.0)
(122.0)
93.0
23.5
3.7
3.4
8.0
86.7
(9.0)
(6.4)
11.1
53.5
(13.1)
(9.3)
16.5
56.4
(10.9)
(7.8)
14.4
62.9
(4.4)
(3.2)
5.4
57.4
170.0
22.0
(144.0)
(211.0)
89.0
(54.0)
24.0
(3.0)
(135.0)
(81.0)
(14.0)
35.0
(14.0)
13.0
215.0
103.5
17.7
(65.6)
(138.0)
208.7
177.6
69.2
(37.4)
(26.6)
47.3
230.1
(15.0)
(15.0)
(8.0)
6.0
(2.0)
(8.0)
(5.0)
(13.0)
(23.0)
1.0
182.0
1.0
161.0
(12.0)
(12.0)
(13.0)
3.0
(10.0)
(14.0)
(14.0)
(38.0)
4.0
(34.0)
(12.0)
(12.0)
(11.0)
4.0
(7.0)
(22.0)
4.0
(18.0)
(34.7)
(34.7)
(21.2)
(21.2)
(21.5)
(21.5)
(22.2)
(22.2)
(20.7)
(20.7)
(89.0)
18.0
3.0
(68.0)
(54.0)
1.0
182.0
2.0
131.0
(77.0)
7.0
(70.0)
(79.7)
4.0
4.0
(71.7)
(85.6)
(85.6)
(3.0)
(3.0)
(191.0)
275.0
2.0
86.0
(48.0)
1.0
(47.0)
(4.0)
3.0
(1.0)
(304.0)
225.0
1.0
(78.0)
(3.0)
(3.0)
(131.0)
1.0
(130.0)
(4.0)
(4.0)
(16.0)
(16.0)
(2.0)
(34.0)
(143.0)
225.0
(4.0)
(14.0)
(1.0)
63.0
(17.5)
(15.0)
(32.5)
(17.5)
(15.0)
(32.5)
(17.5)
(15.0)
(32.5)
(17.5)
(15.0)
(32.5)
(17.5)
(15.0)
(32.5)
(86.0)
100.0
(12.0)
2.0
(475.0)
500.0
(1.0)
24.0
(439.0)
225.0
2.0
(212.0)
(159.0)
207.5
(4.0)
(45.0)
(7.0)
(7.5)
(70.0)
(60.0)
(130.0)
(10.0)
1.0
10.0
(4.0)
6.0
(1.0)
(15.0)
(1.0)
(3.0)
(1.0)
3.0
2.0
-
(4.0)
-
(8.0)
-
(4.0)
-
1.0
16.0
(4.0)
(9.0)
(4.0)
-
(12.0)
-
(118.0)
(22.0)
111.0
90.0
(21.0)
(64.0)
70.0
(56.0)
(33.0)
(7.0)
138.0
19.5
(0.2)
2.4
8.2
4.2
40.0
61.0
(71.0)
117.5
14.5
(96.0)
39.0
(36.0)
45.0
28.0
25.0
(31.0)
129.0
(16.0)
68.0
9.0
76.0
71.0
288.0
74.0
80.0
(21.0)
74.0
27.0
83.0
71.0
77.0
52.0
73.1
32.3
88.9
34.9
94.2
40.7
99.7
36.7
90.4
236.0
(135.0)
238.0
138.0
512.0
129.0
307.1
144.5
373.2
Meritor, Inc.
Page 6 of 7
9
Alexander E. Potter
(612) 303-6709
alexander.e.potter@pjc.com
Financial Ratios
1Q
WORKING CAPITAL MGMT
DSO
DIO
DPO
CCC
Inventory Turns
Payables Turns
Recivable Turns
LEVERAGE
Debt to Total Capital
Debt to EBITDA
Interest Coverage
Net Cash
RETURNS
ROS
ROE
ROA
ROIC
52.4
46.2
72.2
26.4
7.9
5.1
7.0
FY2013
2Q
3Q
58.2
46.8
76.5
28.5
7.8
4.8
6.3
FY16E
0%
0%
0%
0.0%
2.3%
14.4%
3.3%
5.0%
4.2%
17.0%
6.2%
7.9%
5.7%
16.5%
8.1%
9.0%
6.6%
18.8%
10.0%
10.6%
58%
50%
55%
62%
49%
52%
62%
59%
11%
12%
12%
0%
0%
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
16.00 14.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00
N/M
0.0%
0.0%
0.00
0.00
0.00
-40.0%
-23.0%
0.0%
0.00
0.00
0.00
55.8%
15.0%
0.0%
0.00
0.00
0.00
61.8%
59.2%
0.00
0.00
45.00
0.00
0.00
60.00
CASH MANAGEMENT
CAPEX/FCF
-100% -135% -74% -40% -93% -560% 188%
FCF Yield
-15% -10% -15% -24%
-8%
-1%
3%
Dividend Yield
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Dividend (total) ($USD)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Dividend Per Share ($USD)
Share Buybacks ($USD)
-
56%
13%
0%
0.0
-
Meritor, Inc.
FY15E
7%
-46%
10%
11%
6%
-35%
9%
9%
6%
-37%
9%
9%
50.7
41.3
70.1
21.9
8.8
5.2
7.2
FY14
194%
280%
4.2
-630
6%
-33%
8%
9%
51.9
41.8
70.8
22.9
8.7
5.2
7.0
FY13
227%
334%
3.0
-715
0%
-1%
0%
0%
52.8
42.9
71.6
24.2
8.5
5.1
6.9
FY12
270%
204%
4.0
-725
6%
-34%
9%
9%
55.7
43.9
74.1
25.5
8.3
4.9
6.6
4Q
395%
462%
1.9
-820
5%
-26%
7%
8%
57.8
45.6
76.1
27.3
8.0
4.8
6.3
FY2016E
2Q
3Q
2865%
355%
3.1
-803
4%
-21%
6%
7%
58.5
46.2
76.3
28.3
7.9
4.8
6.2
1Q
196% 197% 197% 172% 171% 171% 140% 154% 154% 155% 151% 150% 148% 145% 142% 139%
3.3x
3.8x
4.0x
4.2x
3.9x
3.6x
3.7x
3.5x
3.3x
3.1x
3.0x
3.1x
3.0x
2.9x
2.8x
2.7x
1.3
1.8
0.6
4.8
2.5
1.6
13.1
-3.9
3.9
4.0
2.0
3.2
4.0
4.2
4.5
4.1
-1,986 -1,994 -1,982 -1,706 -1,713 -1,723 -1,649 -1,500 -1,512 -1,480 -1,481 -1,444 -1,427 -1,407 -1,381 -1,359
9%
-43%
14%
17%
56.9
46.5
75.0
28.3
7.9
4.9
6.4
4Q
50.4
41.3
70.4
21.3
8.8
5.2
7.2
3%
-11%
4%
5%
58.4
47.4
75.8
30.0
7.7
4.8
6.3
FY2015E
2QA
3QA
57.5
44.0
76.9
24.6
8.3
4.7
6.3
1%
-5%
2%
3%
56.4
46.5
72.9
30.0
7.9
5.0
6.5
1QA
58.7
44.4
76.9
26.2
8.2
4.7
6.2
2%
-8%
3%
5%
54.5
47.4
71.2
30.7
7.7
5.1
6.7
4QA
56.2
47.0
76.7
26.5
7.8
4.8
6.5
1%
-5%
2%
3%
54.8
47.4
72.0
30.2
7.7
5.1
6.7
FY2014A
2QA
3QA
51.8
41.7
71.4
22.1
8.8
5.1
7.0
3%
-11%
5%
7%
54.5
47.4
72.2
29.7
7.7
5.1
6.7
1QA
50.6
41.4
70.6
21.4
8.8
5.2
7.2
5%
-19%
8%
13%
54.8
47.7
73.4
29.1
7.6
5.0
6.7
4Q
6%
-42%
10%
10%
Page 7 of 8
9
COMPANY NOTE
July 29, 2015
Notes: The boxes on the Rating and Price Target History chart above indicate the date of the Research Note, the rating, and the price target. Each
box represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first Note
written during the past three years.
Legend:
I: Initiating Coverage
R: Resuming Coverage
T: Transferring Coverage
D: Discontinuing Coverage
S: Suspending Coverage
OW: Overweight
N: Neutral
UW: Underweight
NA: Not Available
UR: Under Review
Distribution of Ratings/IB Services
Piper Jaffray
IB Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating
Count
Percent
Count
Percent
BUY [OW]
427
60.06
103
24.12
HOLD [N]
266
37.41
13
4.89
18
2.53
0.00
SELL [UW]
Note: Distribution of Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies currently in each rating category from which Piper Jaffray and its affiliates
received compensation for investment banking services within the past 12 months. FINRA rules require disclosure of which ratings most closely
correspond with "buy," "hold," and "sell" recommendations. Piper Jaffray ratings are not the equivalent of buy, hold or sell, but instead represent
recommended relative weightings. Nevertheless, Overweight corresponds most closely with buy, Neutral with hold and Underweight with sell. See
Stock Rating definitions below.
Meritor, Inc.
Page 8 of 9
9
COMPANY NOTE
July 29, 2015
Research Disclosures
Piper Jaffray was making a market in the securities of Meritor, Inc. at the time this research report was published. Piper Jaffray will buy and sell
Meritor, Inc. securities on a principal basis.
Affiliate disclosures: This report has been prepared by Piper Jaffray & Co. and/or its affiliate Piper Jaffray Ltd., both of which are subsidiaries of
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Rating Definitions
Stock Ratings: Piper Jaffray ratings are indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend) within the next 12 months. At times
analysts may specify a different investment horizon or may include additional investment time horizons for specific stocks. Stock performance
is measured relative to the group of stocks covered by each analyst. Lists of the stocks covered by each are available at www.piperjaffray.com/
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Copyright 2015 Piper Jaffray. All rights reserved.
Meritor, Inc.
Page 9 of 10
9
Meritor, Inc.
ihodakovsky@key.com
bhoselton@key.com
Following 3Q15 earnings release and conference call, we are maintaining our SW rating:
1) We are increasingly optimistic the next 3-year plan to be announced in December
could introduce an EBITDA margin target as high as 12%. We are incrementally
confident MTOR will meet the M16 EBITDA margin objective of 10.0%. Management
is now preparing the next 3-year plan to be announced in December. The new margin
objective could be as high as 12% as competition in the on-highway and off-highway
markets, ~75% of MTOR mix, averages 10-14%, and MTOR's remaining 25% of sales,
Aftermarket & Trailer, runs at 13%+ with upside potential.
2) FY15 FCF guidance increased 10% to $110M, and we believe annual FCF of
$100M+ is sustainable into 2016 and will fund small bolt-on acquisitions and
share repurchases. NOLs, valued at $1.50-$2.00/share based on our calculations,
are expected to provide a cash tax shield of $25M-$30M annually for an estimated 10
years. We expect capital deployment will continue to be allocated to share buybacks and
potentially small bolt-on acquisitions as M16 balance sheet objectives have been met.
$161M remains outstanding under the current buyback authorization, which expires at
the end of 2016.
3) Mixed end markets outlook keeps us on the sidelines as strong North American
outlook and a stable Europe are offset by challenging China and South American
commercial vehicle outlook. North American commercial vehicle outlook is strong, and
management increased FY15 guidance to 325K from prior 305K-315K, in line with the
industry average. A run rate above 300K is expected to continue into FY16. European
production outlook continues, stable with positive indicators. China's outlook deteriorated,
and management lowered its guidance to -35% from prior -20%, in line with consensus.
The South American outlook deteriorated, and management lowered its guidance to
85K-90K units from prior 90K-100K.
NYSE: MTOR
Rating:
Price Target:
Price:
Sector Weight
NA
$13.79
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
Vol (mil)
May-15
Jul-15
MTOR
Company Data
52-week range
$9 - $16
$1,396.9
101.30
$2,160.9
1,148,890.0
5.2%
(27.6)%
$(5.87)
Total Debt/Cap
Cash (mm)
NA
$247.0
Estimates
FY ends 9/30
F2014A
1Q15A
2Q15A
3Q15A
4Q15E
F2015E
F2016E
EPS (Net)
$0.96
$0.35
$0.41
$0.41
$0.29
$1.46
$1.76
Cons. EPS
--
$0.35
$0.41
$0.33
$0.29
$1.39
$1.67
Previous
--
--
--
$0.34
$0.30
$1.40
$1.69
14.4x
--
--
--
--
9.4x
7.8x
--
--
--
--
--
6.6x
6.0x
Valuation
P/E
EV/EBITDA
For analyst certification and important disclosures, please refer to the Disclosure Appendix.
KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. | Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC
11
Meritor - MTOR
Earnings Recap
Valuation
MTOR is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA of 5.7x our 2015 EBITDA estimate of $327M. From 2005-2009,
MTOR has traded at an average EV/EBITDA of 5.5x. MTOR is currently trading at 9.4x our 2015 EPS estimate
of $1.46. From 2005-2009, MTOR has traded at an average 12-month forward P/E of 9x.
Investment Risks
We believe the largest risk to our earnings is a decline in global vehicle production.
Estimate Revisions
We are maintaining our FY15 EBITDA estimate at $327M (FactSet consensus $320M) and our FY16 EBITDA
estimate at $360M (FactSet consensus $359M), and we are increasing our FY15 EPS estimate to $1.46 from
$1.40 (FactSet consensus $1.39) and our FY16 EPS estimate to $1.79 from $1.69 (FactSet consensus $1.67)
on lower interest expense outlook.
Pg.2
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
12
Meritor - MTOR
Earnings Recap
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
2014
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15E
2015E
2016E
112
6%
114
18%
2.5%
-30.0%
0.0%
1.5%
1.5%
$136.13
118
18%
89
9%
3.6%
-50.0%
0.0%
1.5%
1.5%
$137.03
133
10%
95
8%
8.8%
-70.0%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
$136.00
137
20%
95
9%
3.0%
-70.0%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
$132.51
500
14%
394
11%
4.5%
-55.0%
0.8%
1.5%
1.5%
$135.42
135
21%
118
3%
0.0%
-50.0%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
$124.86
137
16%
100
12%
-8.6%
-50.0%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
$112.65
147
10%
100
5%
-10.0%
-50.0%
0.0%
1.0%
1.0%
$110.65
144
5%
97
2%
-10.0%
-50.0%
0.0%
1.0%
1.0%
$110.00
563
13%
414
5%
-7.2%
-50.0%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%
$114.54
545
-3%
416
0%
3.0%
0.0%
2.5%
5.5%
1.0%
$110.00
$891.0
19.6
(13.7)
(14.8)
9.9
15.0
$907
$908.0
30.0
(14.1)
5.2
7.9
25.0
$962
$993.0
2.1
(14.9)
14.9
9.0
(18.1)
$986
$909.0
21.0
(14.0)
14.0
(0.0)
3.0
$933
$3,701.0
72.8
(56.6)
19.2
26.8
0.0
24.8
$3,788
$907.0
27.4
(9.3)
9.3
(17.0)
(38.4)
$879
$962.0
4.1
(9.7)
9.7
(37.8)
(64.3)
$864
$986.0
(31.8)
(9.5)
9.5
(39.1)
(6.1)
$909
$933.0
(50.5)
(8.8)
8.8
(33.0)
0.0
$850
$3,788.0
(50.8)
(37.4)
37.4
(126.9)
0.0
(108.8)
$3,502
$3,501.6
2.5
(35.0)
192.7
(30.6)
0.0
$3,631
$798.2
5.8
804.0
103.0
68.0
(9.0)
59.0
1.0
43.0
$846.6
(0.6)
846.0
116.0
72.2
(6.1)
66.0
0.0
50.0
$867.7
(4.7)
863.0
123.0
74.0
(20.0)
54.0
1.0
68.0
$821.0
(28.0)
793.0
140.0
70.0
8.0
78.0
0.0
62.0
$3,333.4
(27.4)
3,306.0
482.0
284.1
(27.1)
257.0
2.0
223.0
$769.1
(5.1)
764.0
115.0
61.5
3.5
65.0
(1.0)
51.0
$756.0
(7.0)
749.0
115.0
60.5
(3.5)
57.0
0.0
58.0
$795.4
(10.4)
785.0
124.0
63.6
1.4
65.0
(1.0)
60.0
$743.4
(5.5)
737.9
111.7
59.5
(2.0)
57.5
0.0
54.2
$3,063.9
(28.0)
3,035.9
465.7
245.1
(0.6)
244.5
(2.0)
223.2
$3,159.1
(24.0)
3,135.1
496.0
254.2
(10.0)
244.2
0.0
251.9
27.0
(8.0)
24.0
27.0
(9.0)
32.0
22.0
7.0
39.0
33.0
(10.0)
39.0
109.0
(20.0)
134.0
19.0
(11.0)
43.0
21.0
(11.0)
48.0
19.0
(9.0)
50.0
19.0
0.0
35.2
78.0
(31.0)
176.2
76.0
(30.0)
205.9
Taxes
Minority Interest
Net Income, Recurring
10.0
2.0
12.0
9.0
2.0
21.0
11.0
0.0
28.0
3.0
1.0
35.0
33.0
5.0
96.0
7.0
1.0
35.0
6.0
0.0
42.0
8.0
1.0
41.0
5.5
1.0
28.8
26.5
3.0
146.8
34.0
3.1
168.8
Nonrecurring Items
Discontinued Ops
Net Income, Reported
$12.0
(20.0)
0.0
$1.0
208.0
(2.0)
$234.0
(6.0)
(26.0)
$3.0
(3.0)
(3.0)
$29.0
(3.0)
4.0
$43.0
(26.0)
(2.0)
$13.0
$28.8
(32.0)
(1.0)
$113.8
$168.8
98.7
98.7
97.6
97.6
101.1
101.1
101.3
101.3
99.7
99.7
101.2
101.2
102.9
102.9
100.3
100.3
98.4
98.4
100.7
100.7
96.0
96.0
$0.12
$0.12
$0.22
$0.01
$0.28
$2.31
$0.35
$0.03
$0.96
$2.51
$0.35
$0.29
$0.41
$0.42
$0.41
$0.13
$0.29
$0.29
$1.46
$1.13
$1.76
$1.76
Adjusted EBITDA,
EBITDA/Share
$70.0
$0.72
$78.0
$0.80
$80.0
$0.82
$80.0
$0.82
$308.0
$3.09
$79.0
$0.79
$87.0
$0.87
$87.0
$0.87
$74.2
$0.74
$327.2
$3.25
$360.3
$3.75
Revenue Assumptions
NA Prd-M/H Trk (000)
Year/Year % Chg.
Europe-M/H Trk (000)
Year/Year % Chg.
Aftermarket
Military
ROW
Organic Growth
Price Reductions
FX-Euro ($/100)
Revenue Calculation
Ttl. Sgmt. Prior Year
Prod/Demand Chg
Pricing
Org Growth, Mix, etc.
FX-Euro
LVS & Other Divestitures
Other
Sales
Gross Profit Calculation
COGS-Estimate
COGS-Adjustment
COGS-Total
Gross Profit
SG&A-Estimate
SG&A-Adjustment
SG&A-Total
Amortization & Other
Operating Income
182.0
(28.0)
$250.0
11.4%
6.6%
4.7%
1.3%
7.7%
41.7%
12.1%
6.9%
5.2%
2.2%
8.1%
28.1%
12.5%
5.6%
6.9%
2.8%
8.1%
28.2%
15.0%
8.4%
6.6%
3.8%
8.6%
7.7%
12.7%
6.8%
5.9%
2.5%
8.1%
24.6%
13.1%
7.3%
5.8%
4.0%
9.0%
16.3%
13.3%
6.6%
6.7%
4.9%
10.1%
12.5%
13.6%
7.0%
6.6%
4.5%
9.6%
16.0%
13.1%
6.8%
6.4%
3.4%
8.7%
15.5%
13.3%
6.9%
6.4%
4.2%
9.3%
15.0%
13.7%
6.7%
6.9%
4.6%
9.9%
16.5%
1.8%
115.0%
5.9%
72.4%
250.0%
248.6%
-0.7%
25.9%
-15.2%
-18.4%
2.6%
-38.0%
218.2%
210.0%
2.4%
9.9%
146.2%
140.0%
-3.1%
18.6%
191.7%
184.5%
-10.2%
16.0%
100.0%
89.7%
-7.8%
-11.8%
46.4%
47.6%
-8.9%
-12.5%
-17.8%
-15.4%
-7.6%
0.1%
52.9%
51.3%
3.7%
12.8%
15.0%
20.7%
Pg.3
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
13
Meritor - MTOR
Earnings Recap
Revenue Assumptions
NA Prd-M/H Trk (000)
Year/Year % Chg.
Europe-M/H Trk (000)
Year/Year % Chg.
Aftermarket
Military
ROW
Organic Growth
Price Reductions
FX-Euro ($/100)
Revenue Calculation
Ttl. Sgmt. Prior Year
Prod/Demand Chg
Pricing
Org Growth, Mix, etc.
FX-Euro
LVS & Other Divestitures
Other
Sales
Gross Profit Calculation
COGS-Estimate
COGS-Adjustment
COGS-Total
Gross Profit
SG&A-Estimate
SG&A-Adjustment
SG&A-Total
Amortization & Other
Operating Income
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
463
32%
376
3%
0.0%
$121.70
582
26%
421
12%
0.0%
$125.47
621
7%
439
4%
0.0%
$123.08
484
-22%
479
9%
0.0%
$132.55
377
-22%
562
17%
0.0%
$150.31
231
-39%
266
-53%
0.0%
$135.47
257
11%
260
-2%
2.0%
-13.8%
37.0%
-1.7%
1.5%
$135.65
381
48%
383
47%
2.0%
-2.5%
10.0%
-2.4%
1.5%
$139.46
476
25%
379
-1%
0.0%
28.0%
-20.0%
-4.8%
1.5%
$129.84
440
-7%
354
-7%
0.0%
-33.8%
0.7%
-0.5%
1.5%
$131.22
500
14%
394
11%
4.5%
-55.0%
0.8%
1.5%
1.5%
$135.42
563
13%
414
5%
-7.2%
-50.0%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%
$114.54
545
-3%
416
0%
3.0%
0.0%
2.5%
5.5%
1.0%
$110.00
$6,882
$7,788
$8,836
$8,903
$9,150
$7,221
$7,167
(965.0)
$4,457
$4,457.0
673.5
(77.0)
(83.8)
3.3
(389.0)
0.0
$4,584
$4,584.0
1,271.9
(87.8)
(150.5)
43.4
(994.0)
0.0
$4,667
$4,667.0
318.0
(74.8)
(240.9)
(76.3)
(45.0)
(130.0)
$4,418
$4,418.0
(351.1)
(61.0)
(19.8)
9.8
0.0
(295.0)
$3,701
$3,701.0
72.8
(56.6)
19.2
26.8
0.0
24.8
$3,788
$3,788.0
(50.8)
(37.4)
37.4
(126.9)
0.0
(108.8)
$3,502
$3,501.6
2.5
(35.0)
192.7
(30.6)
0.0
$3,631
6,130.0
752.0
400.0
352.0
7,064.0
724.0
435.0
289.0
8,072.0
764.0
471.0
293.0
$8,197.8
70.2
8,263.0
640.0
391.3
(2.3)
394.0
246.0
$8,511.8
7.2
8,519.0
631.0
381.4
(1.4)
380.0
251.0
$6,695.7
14.3
6,710.0
511.0
370.6
15.4
386.0
125.0
$6,644.8
(130.8)
6,514.0
653.0
370.3
67.7
438.0
215.0
$4,093.4
42.6
4,136.0
321.0
355.1
(45.1)
310.0
11.0
$4,212.9
(128.9)
4,084.0
500.0
355.8
(9.8)
346.0
154.0
$4,107.0
86.0
4,193.0
474.0
294.6
(12.6)
282.0
192.0
$3,887.8
45.2
3,933.0
485.0
257.4
9.6
267.0
4.0
214.0
$3,256.9
39.1
3,296.0
405.0
214.7
39.3
254.0
(52.0)
203.0
$3,333.4
(27.4)
3,306.0
482.0
284.1
(27.1)
257.0
2.0
223.0
$3,063.9
(28.0)
3,035.9
465.7
245.1
(0.6)
244.5
(2.0)
223.2
$3,159.1
(24.0)
3,135.1
496.0
254.2
(10.0)
244.2
0.0
251.9
105.0
3.0
244.0
104.0
(24.0)
209.0
107.0
(10.0)
196.0
127.0
(28.0)
147.0
124.0
(36.0)
163.0
104.0
(36.0)
57.0
89.0
(43.9)
169.9
88.0
(19.0)
(58.0)
99.0
(46.0)
101.0
95.0
(73.0)
170.0
95.0
(59.0)
178.0
107.0
(19.0)
115.0
109.0
(20.0)
134.0
78.0
(31.0)
176.2
76.0
(30.0)
205.9
Taxes
Minority Interest
Net Income, Recurring
78.0
11.0
155.0
68.0
5.0
136.0
53.4
10.0
132.6
34.0
3.0
110.0
33.0
12.0
118.0
5.0
15.0
37.0
37.9
15.0
117.0
48.0
(3.0)
(103.0)
62.0
14.0
25.0
77.0
17.0
76.0
56.0
11.0
111.0
74.0
2.0
39.0
33.0
5.0
96.0
26.5
3.0
146.8
34.0
3.1
168.8
Nonrecurring Items
Discontinued Ops
Net Income, Reported
(48.0)
$107.0
$136.0
(172.6)
($40.0)
(98.0)
$12.0
(293.0)
($175.0)
(10.0)
$15.0
(23.0)
$53.0
(59.0)
$52.0
(57.0)
($18.0)
(32.0)
(1.0)
$113.8
$168.8
87.2
87.2
96.8
96.8
97.2
97.2
97.2
97.2
99.7
99.7
100.7
100.7
96.0
96.0
(191.4)
($154.4)
(208.0)
($91.0)
(1,109.0)
($1,212.0)
72.6
72.6
182.0
(28.0)
$250.0
67.2
67.2
67.9
67.9
68.6
68.6
69.9
69.9
69.3
69.3
71.1
71.1
72.4
72.4
$2.31
$1.59
$2.00
$2.00
$1.93
($0.58)
$1.57
$0.17
$1.69
($2.51)
$0.52
($2.17)
$1.60
($1.26)
($1.42)
($16.70)
$0.29
$0.17
$0.79
$0.55
$1.14
$0.53
$0.40
($0.19)
$0.96
$2.51
$1.46
$1.13
$1.76
$1.76
$534.0
$7.95
$522.0
$7.69
$476.0
$6.94
$453.0
$6.48
$447.0
$6.45
$275.0
$3.87
$388.9
$5.37
$114.0
$1.57
$266.0
$3.05
$342.0
$3.53
$345.0
$3.55
$261.0
$2.69
$308.0
$3.09
$327.2
$3.25
$360.3
$3.75
10.9%
5.8%
5.1%
2.3%
7.8%
32.0%
9.3%
5.6%
3.7%
1.7%
6.7%
32.5%
8.6%
5.3%
3.3%
1.5%
5.4%
27.2%
7.2%
4.4%
2.8%
1.2%
5.1%
23.1%
6.9%
4.2%
2.7%
1.3%
4.9%
20.2%
7.1%
5.3%
1.7%
0.5%
3.8%
8.8%
9.1%
6.1%
3.0%
1.6%
5.4%
22.3%
7.2%
7.0%
0.2%
2.6%
-82.8%
10.9%
7.5%
3.4%
0.5%
5.8%
61.4%
10.2%
6.0%
4.1%
1.6%
7.3%
45.3%
11.0%
6.1%
4.8%
2.5%
7.8%
31.5%
10.9%
5.5%
5.5%
1.1%
7.1%
64.3%
12.7%
6.8%
5.9%
2.5%
8.1%
24.6%
13.3%
6.9%
6.4%
4.2%
9.3%
15.0%
13.7%
6.7%
6.9%
4.6%
9.9%
16.5%
1.1%
26.2%
69.7%
67.3%
13.2%
-17.9%
-12.3%
-13.2%
13.5%
1.4%
-2.5%
-3.5%
0.8%
-16.0%
-17.0%
-18.6%
2.8%
2.0%
7.3%
7.6%
-21.1%
-50.2%
-68.6%
-69.2%
-0.7%
72.0%
216.2%
207.6%
-37.8%
-94.9%
-188.0%
-188.6%
2.8%
1300.0%
1.8%
24.7%
204.0%
173.9%
-5.3%
11.5%
46.1%
45.4%
-16.2%
-5.1%
-64.9%
-64.9%
2.4%
9.9%
146.2%
140.0%
-7.6%
0.1%
52.9%
51.3%
3.7%
12.8%
15.0%
20.7%
Pg.4
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
14
Meritor - MTOR
Earnings Recap
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
$56.0
1,251.0
458.0
211.0
1,976.0
$103.0
1,327.0
543.0
266.0
2,239.0
$132.0
1,478.0
523.0
218.0
2,351.0
$187.0
1,655.0
541.0
787.0
3,170.0
$350.0
1,645.0
596.0
502.0
3,093.0
$409.0
1,223.0
541.0
216.0
2,389.0
$497.0
1,114.0
623.0
218.0
2,452.0
$95.0
694.0
374.0
97.0
1,260.0
$343.0
579.0
382.0
417.0
1,721.0
$217.0
712.0
460.0
70.0
1,459.0
$257.0
542.0
438.0
61.0
1,298.0
$318.0
596.0
414.0
56.0
1,384.0
$247.0
610.0
379.0
56.0
1,292.0
$508.8
563.9
348.0
56.0
1,476.7
$642.3
584.7
359.4
56.0
1,642.4
1,179.0
808.0
688.0
$4,651
1,332.0
951.0
731.0
$5,253
1,032.0
808.0
1,369.0
$5,560
1,013.0
801.0
886.0
$5,870
988.0
503.0
929.0
$5,513
738.0
520.0
1,142.0
$4,789
775.0
522.0
925.0
$4,674
445.0
438.0
365.0
$2,508
389.0
432.0
337.0
$2,879
421.0
431.0
352.0
$2,663
417.0
433.0
353.0
$2,501
417.0
434.0
335.0
$2,570
424.0
431.0
355.0
$2,502
447.5
431.0
205.0
$2,560
471.0
431.0
205.0
$2,749
Short-term Debt
Accounts Payable
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
$15.0
1,150.0
578.0
1,743.0
$20.0
1,311.0
547.0
1,878.0
$3.0
1,366.0
602.0
1,971.0
$131.0
1,483.0
909.0
2,523.0
$56.0
1,649.0
844.0
2,549.0
$18.0
1,342.0
719.0
2,079.0
$240.0
1,287.0
610.0
2,137.0
$97.0
674.0
518.0
1,289.0
670.0
720.0
1,390.0
$84.0
841.0
328.0
1,253.0
$18.0
697.0
313.0
1,028.0
$13.0
694.0
339.0
1,046.0
$7.0
680.0
351.0
1,038.0
$7.0
624.4
351.0
982.4
$7.0
644.8
351.0
1,002.8
Long-term Debt
Preferred Securities
Other Long-term Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Total Liab. & Shr. Eqty.
1,435.0
39.0
635.0
799.0
$4,651
1,541.0
39.0
832.0
963.0
$5,253
1,487.0
39.0
1,075.0
988.0
$5,560
1,451.0
58.0
963.0
875.0
$5,870
1,184.0
0.0
771.0
1,009.0
$5,513
1,130.0
0.0
1,037.0
543.0
$4,789
1,063.0
1,012.0
462.0
$4,674
1,080.0
1,416.0
(1,277.0)
$2,508
1,029.0
1,483.0
(1,023.0)
$2,879
950.0
1,421.0
(961.0)
$2,663
1,042.0
1,413.0
(982.0)
$2,501
1,125.0
1,221.0
(822.0)
$2,570
965.0
1,084.0
(585.0)
$2,502
965.0
1,084.0
(471.2)
$2,560
965.0
1,084.0
(302.4)
$2,749
13.4
6.2
1.5
14.1
6.0
1.6
15.1
6.3
1.6
15.5
5.7
1.6
15.0
5.5
1.6
11.8
5.0
1.4
11.2
6.1
1.5
8.3
4.9
1.2
10.8
7.2
1.7
10.0
7.2
1.7
8.8
7.0
1.7
7.7
6.5
1.5
8.3
6.3
1.5
8.4
6.0
1.4
8.9
6.3
1.4
0.7
1.1
0.8
1.2
0.8
1.2
0.7
1.3
0.8
1.2
0.8
1.1
0.8
1.1
0.6
1.0
0.7
1.2
0.7
1.2
0.8
1.3
0.9
1.3
0.8
1.2
1.1
1.5
1.2
1.6
Activity Ratios
Inventory Turnover
Receivable Turnover
Total Asset Turnover
Liquidity Ratios
Quick Ratio
Current Ratio
Debt Ratios
EBIT Interest Coverage
EBITDA Interest Coverage
Funds from Ops./Total Debt
Free Oper. CF/Total Debt
Long Term Debt/Capital
Total Debt/Capital
3.2
5.0
24.2%
11.8%
63.1%
63.4%
2.9
4.9
22.4%
3.9%
60.6%
60.9%
2.7
4.3
21.2%
22.0%
59.1%
59.2%
2.1
3.5
18.5%
0.6%
60.9%
62.9%
2.1
3.4
23.4%
20.6%
54.0%
55.1%
1.4
2.5
14.5%
1.5%
67.5%
67.9%
2.5
4.0
20.1%
-4.1%
69.7%
73.8%
0.4
1.3
-1.9%
-6.3%
1.8
2.5
9.2%
8.3%
2.5
3.2
13.7%
-3.1%
2.7
3.3
16.4%
11.7%
1736.7%
1359.0%
2.0
2.6
9.3%
-0.9%
371.3%
360.1%
2.1
2.7
16.8%
10.8%
253.9%
251.2%
3.0
3.8
21.9%
14.9%
195.4%
194.1%
3.2
3.9
24.2%
13.7%
145.6%
145.2%
5.0%
20.4%
15.4%
4.2%
15.4%
12.3%
3.9%
13.6%
11.2%
3.6%
11.8%
10.5%
3.8%
12.5%
11.5%
2.6%
4.8%
7.2%
3.9%
23.3%
13.5%
1.6%
2.3%
4.6%
6.8%
3.0%
7.0%
8.4%
8.7%
Pg.5
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
15
Meritor - MTOR
Earnings Recap
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
$107.0
196.0
4.0
(123.0)
$184
$136.0
214.0
(96.0)
1.0
$255
($40.0)
183.0
164.0
(88.0)
$219
$12.0
182.0
(136.0)
(90.0)
($32)
($175.0)
172.0
116.0
327.0
$440
($154.4)
129.0
(29.0)
90.4
$36
($91.0)
145.0
(144.0)
265.0
$163
($1,077.0)
81.0
59.0
642.0
($295)
Capital Expenditures
Sale of Prop., Plant & Equip.
Acquisitions/Divestitures
Other
Investing Cash Flow
(184.0)
11.0
(25.0)
($198)
(193.0)
21.0
0.0
($172)
(152.0)
82.0
(50.0)
($120)
(146.0)
18.0
153.0
$25
(150.0)
65.0
(6.0)
201.0
$110
(120.0)
12.0
199.0
5.0
$96
(172.0)
9.0
(57.0)
5.0
($160)
4.0
(9.0)
(27.0)
($32)
(29.0)
(27.0)
($56)
6.0
(55.0)
(28.0)
($77)
112.0
(26.0)
(28.0)
(4.0)
$54
1.0
(264.0)
(28.0)
(100.0)
($391)
28.0
(37.0)
(49.0)
(29.0)
(11.0)
($98)
132.0
(29.0)
(6.0)
$97
1.0
20.0
7.0
8.0
4.0
25.0
(12.0)
(15.0)
4.0
($45)
$47
$29
$55
$163
$59
$88
($402)
$248
101.0
$56.0
56.0
$103.0
103.0
$132.0
132.0
$187.0
187.0
$350.0
350.0
$409.0
409.0
$497.0
497.0
$95.0
95.0
$343.0
$155.0
105.0
78.0
196.0
$534
$136.0
104.0
68.0
214.0
$522
$132.6
107.0
53.4
183.0
$476
$110.0
127.0
34.0
182.0
$453
$118.0
124.0
33.0
172.0
$447
$37.0
104.0
5.0
129.0
$275
$117.0
89.0
37.9
145.0
$389
($103.0)
88.0
48.0
81.0
$114
$7.95
$7.69
$6.94
$6.48
$6.45
$3.87
$5.37
$22.67
67.2
1,450.0
39.0
56.0
$2,956
$17.05
67.9
1,561.0
39.0
103.0
$2,654
$20.46
68.6
1,490.0
39.0
132.0
$2,800
$18.05
69.9
1,582.0
58.0
187.0
$2,715
$15.50
69.3
1,240.0
0.0
350.0
$1,964
$18.64
71.1
1,148.0
0.0
409.0
$2,063
$13.17
72.4
1,303.0
497.0
$1,759
5.5
5.1
5.9
6.0
4.4
7.5
Enterprise Value = (Price x Shares) + LTD + Preferred Equity/Convertible Debt - Cash / Marketable Securities.
4.5
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
$12.0
70.0
46.0
83.0
$211
$82.0
66.0
(69.0)
(38.0)
$41
$52.0
63.0
39.0
(77.0)
$77
($18.0)
67.0
(62.0)
(83.0)
($96)
$250.0
67.0
19.0
(89.0)
$247
$113.8
66.5
21.5
(10.0)
$192
$168.8
66.5
(11.8)
0.0
$223
(111.0)
125.0
$14
(56.0)
(8.0)
($64)
(105.0)
(69.0)
2.0
($172)
(89.0)
18.0
28.0
3.0
($40)
(54.0)
1.0
182.0
8.0
$137
(77.0)
160.0
$83
(90.0)
160.0
$70
(90.0)
($90)
(9.0)
(83.0)
0.0
(14.0)
($106)
209.0
0.0
(54.0)
0.0
(58.0)
$97
14.0
0.0
(12.0)
$2
25.0
0.0
(1.0)
$24
0.0
$0
0.0
$0
0.0
$0
(1.0)
1.0
(4.0)
($126)
$40
$61
$330
$262
$133
343.0
$217.0
217.0
$257.0
257.0
$318.0
318.0
$648.0
648.0
$909.8
909.8
$1,043.3
$25.0
99.0
62.0
70.0
10.0
$266
$76.0
95.0
77.0
66.0
28.0
$342
$111.0
95.0
56.0
63.0
20.0
$345
$39.0
107.0
74.0
67.0
(26.0)
$261
$96.0
109.0
33.0
67.0
3.0
$308
$146.8
78.0
26.5
66.5
9.5
$327
$168.8
76.0
34.0
66.5
15.0
$360
$1.57
$3.05
$3.53
$3.55
$2.69
$3.09
$3.25
$3.75
$4.65
72.6
1,177.0
95.0
$1,419
$12.56
87.2
1,029.0
343.0
$1,781
$16.55
96.8
1,034.0
217.0
$2,418
$6.50
97.2
1,060.0
257.0
$1,435
$5.68
97.2
1,138.0
318.0
$1,372
$11.19
99.7
972.0
247.0
$1,840
$13.79
100.7
972.0
508.8
$1,852
$13.79
96.0
972.0
642.3
$1,653
12.5
2010
6.7
6.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$6
7.1
4.2
5.3
6.0
5.7
4.6
Pg.6
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
16
Disclosure Appendix
Meritor, Inc. - MTOR
We expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from Meritor, Inc. within the next three months.
As of the date of this report, we make a market in Meritor, Inc..
For the three-year history represented in this chart, this stock has been rated Sector Weight.
Rating Disclosures
Distribution of Ratings/IB Services Firmwide and by Sector
KeyBanc Capital Markets
INDUSTRIAL
IB Serv/Past 12 Mos.
Rating
Count
Percent
Count
Overweight [OW]
356
45.76
84
406
52.19
66
16
2.06
Underweight [UW]
Percent Rating
IB Serv/Past 12 Mos.
Count
Percent
Count
Percent
107
44.77
21
19.63
131
54.81
6.87
0.42
0.00
Pg.7
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
17
Other Disclosures
KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of
KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC (KBCMI), and KeyBank National
Association (KeyBank N.A.), are marketed. Pacific Crest Securities is a division of KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.
KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. (KBCMI) does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As
a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
This report has been prepared by KBCMI. The material contained herein is based on data from sources considered to be
reliable; however, KBCMI does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information. It is published for
informational purposes only and should not be used as the primary basis of investment decisions. Neither the information
nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security. The opinions and
estimates expressed reflect the current judgment of KBCMI and are subject to change without notice. This report may contain
forward-looking statements, which involve risk and uncertainty. Actual results may differ significantly from the forward-looking
statements. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific
investment objectives, financial situation and the specific needs of any person or entity.
No portion of an analysts compensation is based on a specific banking transaction; however, part of his/her compensation
may be based upon overall firm revenue and profitability, of which investment banking is a component. Individuals associated
with KBCMI (other than the research analyst(s) listed on page 1 of this research report) may have a position (long or short) in
the securities covered in this research report and may make purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market
or otherwise without notice. As required by NASD Rule 2711(h)(1)(A), financial interest, if any, by any research analysts
listed on page 1 of this report will be disclosed in Important Disclosures, Company-specific regulatory disclosures located
above in the Disclosure Appendix. KBCMI itself may have a position (long or short) in the securities covered in this research
report and may make purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise without notice. As required
by NASD Rule 2711(h)(1)(B), if KBCMI beneficially owns 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject
company(ies) in this research report as of the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research
report will be disclosed in Important Disclosures, Company-specific regulatory disclosures located above in the Disclosures
Appendix. This communication is intended solely for use by KBCMI clients. The recipient agrees not to forward or copy the
information to any other person without the express written consent of KBCMI.
Pg.8
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
18
Alert
July 29, 2015
EPS:
$0.41: Recurring
$0.34: KBCM
$0.33: FactSet
$0.28: Prior Year
Revenue:
$909M Recurring
$864M KeyBanc
$908M FactSet
$986M Prior Year
Adjusted EBITDA
$87M: Recurring
$83M: KBCM
$80M: FactSet
$80M: Prior Year
EBITDA Margin:
9.6%: Recurring
9.0%: KBCM
8.8%: FactSet
8.1%: Prior Year
For analyst certification and important disclosures, please refer to the Disclosure Appendix.
KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. | Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC
19
Disclosure Appendix
Meritor, Inc. - MTOR
We expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from Meritor, Inc. within the next three months.
As of the date of this report, we make a market in Meritor, Inc..
For the three-year history represented in this chart, this stock has been rated Sector Weight.
Rating Disclosures
Distribution of Ratings/IB Services Firmwide and by Sector
KeyBanc Capital Markets
INDUSTRIAL
IB Serv/Past 12 Mos.
Rating
Count
Percent
Count
Overweight [OW]
356
45.76
84
406
52.19
66
16
2.06
Underweight [UW]
Percent Rating
IB Serv/Past 12 Mos.
Count
Percent
Count
Percent
107
44.77
21
19.63
131
54.81
6.87
0.42
0.00
Pg.2
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
20
Other Disclosures
KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of
KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC (KBCMI), and KeyBank National
Association (KeyBank N.A.), are marketed. Pacific Crest Securities is a division of KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.
KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. (KBCMI) does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As
a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
This report has been prepared by KBCMI. The material contained herein is based on data from sources considered to be
reliable; however, KBCMI does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information. It is published for
informational purposes only and should not be used as the primary basis of investment decisions. Neither the information
nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security. The opinions and
estimates expressed reflect the current judgment of KBCMI and are subject to change without notice. This report may contain
forward-looking statements, which involve risk and uncertainty. Actual results may differ significantly from the forward-looking
statements. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific
investment objectives, financial situation and the specific needs of any person or entity.
No portion of an analysts compensation is based on a specific banking transaction; however, part of his/her compensation
may be based upon overall firm revenue and profitability, of which investment banking is a component. Individuals associated
with KBCMI (other than the research analyst(s) listed on page 1 of this research report) may have a position (long or short) in
the securities covered in this research report and may make purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market
or otherwise without notice. As required by NASD Rule 2711(h)(1)(A), financial interest, if any, by any research analysts
listed on page 1 of this report will be disclosed in Important Disclosures, Company-specific regulatory disclosures located
above in the Disclosure Appendix. KBCMI itself may have a position (long or short) in the securities covered in this research
report and may make purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise without notice. As required
by NASD Rule 2711(h)(1)(B), if KBCMI beneficially owns 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject
company(ies) in this research report as of the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research
report will be disclosed in Important Disclosures, Company-specific regulatory disclosures located above in the Disclosures
Appendix. This communication is intended solely for use by KBCMI clients. The recipient agrees not to forward or copy the
information to any other person without the express written consent of KBCMI.
Pg.3
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
21
US$9.46-US$15.65
Sector
Trucks
Market Cap
US$1.3 billion
45.8
Shares Outstanding
96,551,713
ISIN
US0433531011
PermID
1-4295912004
87
www.BuySellSignals.com
Sep 2014
Sep 2013
Sep 2012
Sales (USD B)
3.8
4.5
51
137
Net (USD M)
249
(22)
52
EPS (USD)
2.51
(0.22)
0.54
Value
Rank
Quartile
MCap (US$)
1.3B
6519
Top
2.5B
5071
Top
Revenue (US$)
4B
2263
Top
249M
2329
Top
6.2
13894
Second
Price Earnings
5.3
1990
Top
1,078.8
14093
Second
7.9
12611
Second
43
25587
Third
Page 1
22
Analysis
Bullish Signals
Rises to Falls: In the last three months the number of rises
outnumbered falls 32:31 or 1.03:1.
The Price/MAP 200 of 1.02 for Meritor is higher than the
Price/MAP 200 for the S&P 500 Index of 0.9.
The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 1.02, a bullish indicator.
In the past 200 days this ratio has exceeded 1.02, 108
times suggesting further upside. The 50-day MAP of
US$13.74 is higher than the 200-day MAP of US$13.29, a
bullish indicator. The 200-day MAP has increased to
US$13.29. An increase is another bullish indicator.
Undervaluation:
Price/Earnings of 5.3 versus sector average of 15.0 and
market average of 20.4.
The earnings yield of 19.0% is 7.9 times the 10-year bond
yield of 2.4%.
The company is cash rich with Cash to Market
Capitalisation at 18.8%.
The Q Ratio, defined by James Tobin as MCap divided
by Total Assets, is 0.5. Compared with the rest of the
market the stock is undervalued.
Value
Rank In Market
Return on Capital
Employed [ROCE]
%
30.4
In Top 5%
Price Earnings
5.3
In Top 7%
Price to Sales
0.3
In Top 8%
Earnings Yield %
19.0
In Top 8%
Price Change %
2.3
In Top Quartile
Cash to MCap %
18.8
In Top Quartile
Return on Assets
[ROA] %
10
In Top Quartile
Note
It is at a discount of 13.1% to the 12-month high of
US$15.65 on 08 Jan, 2015. It is also at a premium of 43.8%
to the 12-month low of US$9.46 on 15 Oct, 2014.
The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five
years ago in Meritor is US$963, for a capital loss of US$37.
Bearish Signals:
In the NYSE market of 2,063 stocks and 412 units traded
today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 20
indicating it is trailing 80% of the market.
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 2
23
Analysis (continued)
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
of 13.42 minus the 26-day EMA of 13.57 is negative
suggesting a bearish signal.
Overvaluation:
The average annual compound return on the share
price in the last 5 years was -0.8%, underperforming the
average annual compound return on the S&P 500 Index
of 13.9%.
Value
Rank In Market
Volatility %
2.6
In Bottom Quartile
Relative Strength
(6M)
20
In Bottom Quartile
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 3
24
PVUS$1,000
Trailing Qtr
Trailing Yr
Trailing 3 Yrs
US$1,094
US$1,079
US$2,810
Commercial
Vehicles &
Trucks sector
937
709
1,012
1,002
1,086
1,547
MTOR
RIC
Avg. Daily
Volume
Volume
% of Total
MTOR.N
1,276,540
91.73
MTOR.N
33,020
8.27
Other Listings
United States
BATS
Total
100.00
www.BuySellSignals.com
US$986.8 million
Volume
72,852,758
0.9
Page 4
25
Tr 3 Yrs
MTOR
9.41
7.89
180.99
Commercial
Vehicles & Trucks
-6.3
-29.06
1.22
0.2
6.71
54.75
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 5
26
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
13.12
13.04
7.04
5.22
16.04
13.1
% Price Change
0.6
85.2
34.9
-67.5
22.4
198.4
1,270,801
1,348,252
1,345,882
2,092,903
1,988,490
2,186,538
VWP (USD)
13.13
10.26
4.53
7.46
17.07
14.79
Turnover Period
3 mo
3 mo
3 mo
2 mo
58 d
44 d
9.46 - 15.65
6.09 - 15.14
3.83 - 7.5
4.78 - 17.33
11.95 - 22.65
12.93 - 16.22
Index Change %
5.2
22.1
17.9
3.1
28.1
12.1
-4.6
63.2
17
-70.6
-5.7
186.3
In the past 6 years average daily volume has declined 41.9% from 2.2 million shares to 1.3 million shares. Turnover period has
increased from 44 days to 3 months. This indicates a larger number of core investors, making a long-term investment safer.
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 6
27
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 7
28
Ranking
Fig 21: Global Peer Group Analysis (all figures in USD)
Name
Relative Str.
(6 mo)
MCap
PV $1000
(1 yr)
Revenue
Net Profit
Total Assets
Cosmo Oil
74
1.4B
795.6
24.7B
(629.6M)
11.6B
95
1.3B
1,616.8
6.8B
38.5M
2.2B
Burelle
58
1.3B
750.8
5.7B
121.4M
4B
BlueScope Steel
20
1.3B
433.4
6B
(61M)
5.6B
Meritor
43
1.3B
1,078.8
4B
249M
2.5B
82
1.3B
960.0
4.7B
143.9M
6B
33
1.2B
616.3
2B
194.2M
2.4B
Oil Refineries
88
1.2B
1,266.3
9.6B
(196.4M)
4.9B
Unipetrol
77
1.2B
1,034.5
4.1B
(56.9M)
2B
Country
Last Price
5007
JP
JPY198.0
ALJ
US
US$19.06
BUR
FR
EUR648.05
BSL
AU
AUD3.15
MTOR
US
US$13.60
5413
JP
CGAS3
P/E
P/S
Turnover Rate
(%)
% Disc to 52-w
Hi
0.1
121.3
9.6
0.2
283.6
0.7
2.2
12.3
0.2
181.4
49.7
5.3
0.3
327.6
13.1
JPY1,439.0
8.9
0.3
217.8
18.1
BR
R$41.50
7.3
0.6
1.0
21.7
ORL
IL
NIS1.44
33.5
4.8
BAAUNIPE
CZ
CZK160.0
3.8
5.7
20.8
Brokerage
Action
Past Rating
Current Rating
07-May-2015
Reiterated Rating
Neutral
21-Apr-2015
Citigroup Inc.
Neutral
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 8
29
Ranking (continued)
Fig 23: Relative Strength
Ranking
Meritor, Inc. is placed 793/2436 in BSS ranking of NYSE
performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 68%.
Meritor, Inc. was ranked 942 in the Industry Week list of the
world's largest 1000 manufacturers by Revenues in 2014; a
deterioration over a year from rank 833 in 2013.
Sector Sorting
For Company searches, or for sorting by stocks and
variables, an interactive version of today's Table is
available here
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 9
30
30 September, 2014
2014-09-30
2013-09-30
Change %
Sales
3,766
3,672
Up 2.6
Cost of sales
-3,279
-3,277
Deterioration 0.1
GROSS MARGIN
487
395
Up 23.3
-258
-253
Deterioration 2.0
-109
-10
-23
Reduced 56.5
-2
-3
Reduced 33.3
OPERATING INCOME
217
Up 3,000.0
125
190
38
42
Down 9.5
228
170
Up 34.1
130
126
Up 3.2
315
51
Up 517.6
31
64
Down 51.6
284
-13
Recovery
-30
-7
Deterioration
328.6
254
-20
Recovery
-5
-2
Deterioration
150.0
249
-22
Recovery
279
-15
Recovery
-30
-7
Deterioration
328.6
249
-22
Recovery
Continuing operations
US$2.86
-15.0c
Recovery
Discontinued operations
-31.0c
-7.0c
Deterioration
342.9
US$2.55
-22.0c
Recovery
Continuing operations
US$2.81
-15.0c
Recovery
Discontinued operations
-30.0c
-7.0c
Deterioration
328.6
US$2.51
-22.0c
Recovery
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 10
31
30 September, 2014
97,500,000
97,100,000
Up 0.4
99,200,000
97,100,000
Up 2.2
2014-09-30
2013-09-30
Change %
247
318
Down 22.3
610
596
Up 2.3
Inventories
379
414
Down 8.5
56
56
Steady
1,292
1,384
Down 6.6
NET PROPERTY
424
417
Up 1.7
GOODWILL
431
434
Down 0.7
OTHER ASSETS
355
335
Up 6.0
1,210
1,186
Up 2.0
2,502
2,570
Down 2.6
Short-term debt
13
Down 46.2
680
694
Down 2.0
351
339
Up 3.5
1,038
1,046
Down 0.8
LONG-TERM DEBT
965
1,125
Down 14.2
RETIREMENT BENEFITS
775
886
Down 12.5
OTHER LIABILITIES
309
335
Down 7.8
2,049
2,346
Down 12.7
3,087
3,392
Down 9.0
Common stock (September 30, 2014 and 2013, 97.8 and 97.4 shares 97
issued and outstanding, respectively)
97
Steady
918
914
Up 0.4
Accumulated deficit
-878
-1,127
Reduced 22.1
-749
-734
Deterioration 2.0
-612
-850
Reduced 28.0
Noncontrolling interests
27
28
Down 3.6
TOTAL DEFICIT
-585
-822
Reduced 28.8
TOTAL ASSETS
LIABILITIES AND EQUITY (DEFICIT)
CURRENT LIABILITIES:
TOTAL LIABILITIES
COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCIES
EQUITY (DEFICIT):
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 11
32
30 September, 2014
2,502
2,570
Down 2.6
2014-09-30
2013-09-30
Change %
215
-96
Recovery
-77
-54
Deterioration 42.6
182
131
Deterioration
Up 16.7
-70
137
Deterioration
225
500
Down 55.0
-439
-475
Reduced 7.6
12
11
Up 9.1
-202
36
Deterioration
-10
-12
Reduced 16.7
-212
24
Deterioration
-4
-4
Steady
-71
61
Deterioration
318
257
Up 23.7
247
318
Down 22.3
FINANCING ACTIVITIES
EQUIVALENTS
2013-09-30
12.19
10.28
11.14
4.61
6.23
-0.57
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 12
33
30 September, 2014
2013-09-30
Change %
9.95
-0.86
14.36
-35.33
Recovery
1.23
1.32
Down 6.5
Interest Cover
3.42
1.4
Up 143.7
Current Ratio
1.24
1.32
Down 5.9
2014-09-30
2013-09-30
Change %
Sales
US$38.63
US$37.82
Up 2.1
EBIT
US$4.56
US$1.82
Up 150.4
Cash
US$2.53
US$3.27
Down 22.6
Working Capital
US$2.61
US$3.48
Down 25.2
Shareholders' Funds
-627.69c
-875.39c
Reduced 28.3
Total Liabilities
US$31.66
US$34.93
Down 9.4
Total Assets
US$25.66
US$26.47
Down 3.0
Current Debt
7.18c
13.39c
Down 46.4
-1,069.74c
-1,322.35c
Reduced 19.1
EPS Final
US$2.51
-22.0c
9.8
As % of sales
0.8
2013
1.7
2012
2011
40.9
48.4
1.2
1.7
2010
5-yr avg
1.4
1.3
In the past 5 years, Income Tax as % of profit before tax decreased from 48.4% to 9.8%.
Market Share
Meritor vs Commercial Vehicles & Trucks sector [Commercial Vehicles & Trucks sector Total in Brackets]
Revenue of US$4 billion[10.9% of aggregate sector revenue of US$36.8 billion; down from 11.2% in the previous year.]
Net Profit of US$249 million [18.4% of aggregate sector net profit of US$1.4 billion]
EBIT of US$445 million [15.6% of aggregate sector EBIT of US$2.8 billion; up from 9.8% in the previous year.]
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 13
34
Value
USD
8,703,825
9.01
118.4 M
Glenview Capital
Management LLC
7,516,803
7.79
102.2 M
Lasry Marc
7,207,466
7.46
98 M
LSV Asset
Management
5,472,270
5.67
74.4 M
5,298,910
5.49
72.1 M
Blackrock Institutional
Trust Company N.a.
4,128,273
4.28
56.1 M
Frontier Capital
Management Co LLC
3,979,692
4.12
54.1 M
Dimensional Fund
Advisors LP
3,387,275
3.51
46.1 M
Issued Capital
Gotham Asset
Management LLC
3,137,085
3.25
42.7 M
Blackrock Fund
Advisors
2,507,427
2.6
34.1 M
Total
51,339,026
53.17
http://www.meritor.com.
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 14
35
[News Story]
http://www.buysellsignals.net/hbn/8kviewer.jsp?doc=_Archiv
es_edgar_data_1113256_000111325614000033_000111325614-000033.txt
[News Story]
http://www.buysellsignals.net/hbn/8kviewer.jsp?doc=_Archiv
es_edgar_data_1113256_000120677415001970_000120677415-001970.txt
[News Story]
http://www.buysellsignals.net/hbn/8kviewer.jsp?doc=_Archiv
es_edgar_data_1113256_000089383814000142_000089383814-000142.txt
[News Story]
http://www.buysellsignals.net/hbn/8kviewer.jsp?doc=_Archiv
es_edgar_data_1113256_000120677415001803_000120677415-001803.txt
Source: 8-K United States Securities and Exchange
Commission
[News Story]
http://www.buysellsignals.net/hbn/8kviewer.jsp?doc=_Archiv
es_edgar_data_1113256_000089383814000131_000089383814-000131.txt
[News Story]
http://www.buysellsignals.net/hbn/8kviewer.jsp?doc=_Archiv
es_edgar_data_1113256_000120677415000382_000120677415-000382.txt
Source: 8-K United States Securities and Exchange
Commission
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 15
36
Annual Meetings
January 22: Meritor announces AGM
Meritor has announced its Annual General Meeting will take
place on January 22, 2015.
Performance
April 29: Meritor Reports Second-Quarter Fiscal Year
2015 Results
Press Releases
July 10: Meritor Purchases Assets Of Sypris Facility In
Morganton, North Carolina
[News Story] TROY, Mich., July 10, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -Meritor, Inc. (NYSE:MTOR) today announced that it has
purchased the majority of the assets at the Sypris Solutions,
Inc. manufacturing facility in Morganton, North Carolina.
"Bringing the Morganton facility under the Meritor umbrella
allows us to expand operations while demonstrating our
continued commitment to supplying axle and suspension
components to our customers," said Brett Penzkofer, vice
president and general manager of Meritor's trailer business.
The facility currently manufactures trailer axle beams, and
machines carriers and differentials for Meritor, in addition to
producing light vehicle components for other customers.
<a href='http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/meritorpurchases-assets-of-sypris-facility-in-morganton-northcarolina-20150710-00198'>Read more...</a>
Source: Nasdaq Stock Exchange
For more details click here.
Page 16
37
[News Story] CONCORD, N.C., July 1, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -Drivers will rev their engines for a Fourth of July weekend of
heavy-duty truck racing when the Charlotte Motor
Speedway hosts the Meritor ChampTruck World Series.
"We're bringing the thrill of semi-truck racing back to the
United States for the first time since 1993," said James Taylor,
general manager, North America Field Operations for
Meritor. "ChampTruck races are family affordable and fanfriendly. People have access to the trucks, drivers and teams,
so there's plenty of excitement for everyone."
The two days of racing at Charlotte Motor Speedway is the
fourth event in the Meritor ChampTruck World Series. Gates
open at 8 a.m. on Friday and Saturday. Friday's activities
include two Meritor ChampTruck practice sessions, a
qualifying session and two heat races.
<a href='http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/meritorchamptruck-world-series-brings-thrill-of-big-rig-racing-tocharlotte-motor-speedway-20150701-00423'>Read
more...</a>
Source: Nasdaq Stock Exchange
For more details click here.
[News Story] TROY, Mich., June 8, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -Meritor, Inc. (NYSE:MTOR) today announced that it is offering,
subject to market and other conditions, an additional $225
million aggregate principal amount of its existing series of 61/4% notes due 2024 in an underwritten registered public
offering.
For more details click here.
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Page 17
38
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 18
39
[News Story]
Hot Topics: ETFs | Retirement | Currencies | Online Broker
Center
Join NASDAQ or Log In
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More from Business Wire
Grede Recognized by Meritor, Inc.
For more details click here.
[News Story] TROY, Mich., Feb. 17, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -Meritor, Inc. (NYSE:MTOR) earned Heavy Duty Trucking (HDT)
magazine's 2015 Top 20 Product Award for its P600 Series
Heavy-Haul Planetary Axles. The award honors the most
innovative and significant new products that address industry
issues and help fleets improve their bottom line, according to
Deborah Lockridge, HDT editor.
For more details click here.
[News Story] TROY, Mich., March 6, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -When 14-year-old John and his mother, a cancer patient,
showed up at The Salvation Army Family Life Resource
Centre (FLRC) in Brampton, Ontario, Canada, they were
escaping an abusive relationship. "For my mom to actually
seek help was a huge step, and it shows just how badly she
needed it," said John.
For more details click here.
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 19
40
[News Story] LAS VEGAS, Jan. 27, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -Meritor Inc. (NYSE:MTOR) announced at Heavy Duty
Aftermarket Week '15 (HDAW) that it is creating a one-stop
resource for wheel-end solutions by adding three new
products.
With the introduction of the Doctor Preload(Registered)
Bearing Adjustment Tools, Temper-Loc(Registered) spindle
nuts from Temper(Registered) and Meritor(Registered)
hubcaps, Meritor continues to reinforce its leadership in
wheel-end solutions by broadening its robust portfolio of
products.
For more details click here.
[News Story] LAS VEGAS, Jan. 27, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -Meritor, Inc. (NYSE:MTOR) today announced it is launching
"Shoes for Soldiers" to help severely wounded, injured or ill
veterans become leaders in business, government and their
communities by contributing a percentage of its
remanufactured brake shoe sales to the Wyakin Warrior
Foundation.
For more details click here.
[News Story] LAS VEGAS, Jan. 27, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -Meritor Inc. (NYSE:MTOR) announced at Heavy Duty
Aftermarket Week '15 (HDAW) the expansion of its air disc
brake (ADB) product line and introduced updated parts
catalogs to support rising market demand.
The expansion includes more than 150 part numbers for
genuine Meritor ADB systems, such as the ADB1560, DX and
EX+ models and over 130 Meritor AllFit(TradeMark) part
numbers covering brakes made by other manufacturers.
For more details click here.
Page 20
41
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 21
42
[Company Release] HANNOVER, Germany, Sept. 24, 2014 -Meritor(Registered) (NYSE:MTOR) will feature its ELSA air disc
brake (ADB) series at the 65th IAA Commercial Vehicles 2014
show Sept. 25-Oct. 2 in Hannover, Germany.
"We use best-in-class manufacturing processes to build
brakes that are weight-optimized and deliver performance
with longer component life," said Tony Nicol, general
manager, Brakes, Europe for Meritor.
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 22
43
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Page 23
44
Ivor J. Evans
Executive Chairman
www.BuySellSignals.com
Kevin Nowlan
CFO & Senior Vice President
Rhonda L. Brooks
Director
Page 24
45
William J. Lyons
Director
www.BuySellSignals.com
David W. Devonshire
Director
Joseph B. Anderson
Director
Page 25
46
William R. Newlin
Director
Sandra Quick
Senior Vice President &
Corporate Secretary &
General Counsel
www.BuySellSignals.com
Page 26
47
Glossary
Capital Gain/Loss from n Years Ago to n-1 Years Ago:
Cash/MCap:
BuySellSignals Financial Research provides equity research on over 48,000 companies listed in
more than 90 countries and 120 markets across the world. BuySellSignals believes that every
stock has a story to tell and that this story changes every day. To capture this story,
BuySellSignals offers the latest pertinent and comprehensive information so that investors can
make well-informed investment decisions.
For further details on definitions and quotations from investing legends, Click here
For any enquiries, please email: feedback@buysellsignals.com
Disclaimer: While this document is based on information sources which are considered reliable, it has been prepared without consideration of
your specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs, so you should carry out your own analysis or seek professional investment
advice before an investment decision is made. The document contains unbiased, independent equities data from BuySellSignals (AFS Licence
222756), who provide round the clock data on every stock and sector. BuySellSignals is not a broker, and does not have an executing,
corporate advisory or investment banking function. BuySellSignals, its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or
guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate.
The data is sourced from annual reports and company releases and may not be fully up to date. It should be used as a guide only.
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Page 27
48
Meritor, Inc.
ihodakovsky@key.com
bhoselton@key.com
Rating:
Price Target:
Price:
Sector Weight
NA
$14.18
10
17
16
15
14
13
4
12
11
Increasingly more focused on new product, with 20 new launches scheduled for the
next two years, a company record
Recently announced win with PACCAR, which could drive as much as $150M in
incremental revenue at peak
Upcoming ESC mandate should drive higher revenue for JV with Wabco Holdings,
Inc. (WBC)
Military business could see a material increase
10
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Vol (mil)
Apr-15
Jun-15
MTOR
Company Data
$9 - $16
$1,436.4
High probability the 10.0% target under M2016 plan will be achieved
Beyond 2016, EBITDA margin could increase as high as 12.0%, largely driven by
leverage and higher-margin new product launches.
101.30
SI as % of Float
7.7%
9.2%
NYSE: MTOR
52-week range
adeem@key.com
Following an NDRS with MTOR management, we are maintaining our Sector Weight
rating based on our belief that:
2) End markets remain mixed as North American outlook is strong, Europe is stable, but
China is challenging, and South American commercial vehicle production remains weak
We are increasing our FY15 EBITDA estimate to $327M from $322M (FactSet $312M)
and our FY15 EPS estimate to $1.40 from $1.34 (FactSet $1.39), and our FY16 EBITDA
estimate to $360M from $352M (FactSet $354M) and our FY16 EPS estimate to $1.69
from $1.54 (FactSet $1.69) on increased confidence in execution.
Book Value/Share
$2,200.4
1,299,110.0
$(5.87)
Total Debt/Cap
Cash (mm)
NA
$247.0
Estimates
FY ends 9/30
F2014A
1Q15A
2Q15A
3Q15E
4Q15E
F2015E
F2016E
EPS (Net)
$0.96
$0.35
$0.41
$0.34
$0.30
$1.40
$1.69
Cons. EPS
--
$0.35
$0.41
$0.33
$0.30
$1.39
$1.69
Previous
--
--
--
$0.33
$0.26
$1.34
$1.54
14.8x
--
--
--
--
10.1x
8.4x
Valuation
P/E
For analyst certification and important disclosures, please refer to the Disclosure Appendix.
KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. | Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC
49
Meritor - MTOR
Management Meeting
Valuation
MTOR is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA of 5.7x our 2015 EBITDA estimate of $327M. From 2005-2009,
MTOR has traded at an average EV/EBITDA of 5.5x. MTOR is currently trading at 10.1x our 2015 EPS
estimate of $1.40. From 2005-2009, MTOR has traded at an average 12-month forward P/E of 9x.
Investment Risks
We believe the largest risk to our earnings is a decline in global vehicle production.
Following an NDRS with MTOR management we are maintaining our Sector Weight rating based on our
belief that:
Increasingly Confident 1) We are increasingly confident in the execution of the M2016 plan and beyond, and management plans to
provide detailed objectives for the three-year M2019 plan at its Analyst Day in December, 2015:
in Execution
New business revenue growth is accelerating to 2-3% above industry annually as management has
secured ~$300M of the $500M new business target under the M2016 plan, and we are incrementally
confident the target will be achieved:
Management expects to execute on the $179M outstanding under the current share buyback
authorization by the end of FY16. Going forward, we expect capital deployment will continue to
be allocated to share buybacks and potentially small bolt-on acquisitions as M2016 balance sheet
objectives have been met.
NOLs, valued at ~$1.50-$2.00/share based on our calculations, are a positive to cash-generating
capacity, and are expected to provide a cash tax shield of ~$25M-$30M annually for approximately ten
years.
2) End markets remain mixed as North American outlook is strong, Europe is stable, but China is challenging,
and South American commercial vehicle production remains weak:
Increasing Estimates
There is a high probability the 10.0% target under the M2016 plan will be achieved as MTOR is already
tracking at an average of 9.5% through F1H15 despite a decline in revenue, and improved execution
should drive solid leverage on new business launches in FY16.
Beyond 2016, EBITDA margin could increase as high as 12.0%, largely driven by leverage and highermargin new product launches.
Capital deployment is increasingly allocated to share buybacks and potentially small bolt-on acquisitions
as free cash flow outlook is positive at ~$100M annually with upside potential:
Management is increasingly more focused on new product, with 20 new launches scheduled for the
next two years, a company record and a substantial increase from 2014s total of five launches.
Recently announced win with PACCAR could drive as much as $150M in incremental revenue at peak,
and is included in the $300M confirmed new business wins.
Upcoming ESC mandate issued by NHTSA should drive higher revenue for the JV with WBC.
Military business could see a material increase driven by the JLTV program award expected to be
announced around August. MTORs content is higher with Lockheed than OshKosh Corporation (OSK),
and should Lockheed win the contract, MTORs military revenue could increase substantially, as high
as $200M at peak from the current $30M, based on discussions with management.
North American commercial vehicle production remains strong with 2015 estimates ranging
~320,000-340,000 units, and is expected to remain above 300,000 units in 2016 as freight rates remain
healthy, fleet age remains high, used truck prices remain strong, and new technology, such as improved
fuel economy, adds value to ownership.
European production outlook is stable with some emerging positive indicators.
China production remains challenged by macroeconomic headwinds.
South American commercial vehicle production remains weak, despite some signs of stabilization.
We are increasing our FY15 EBITDA estimate to $327M from $322M (FactSet $312M) and our FY15 EPS
estimate to $1.40 from $1.34 (FactSet $1.39), and our FY16 EBITDA estimate to $360M from $352M
(FactSet $354M) and our FY16 EPS estimate to $1.69 from $1.54 (FactSet $1.69) on increased confidence
in execution.
Pg.2
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
50
Meritor - MTOR
Management Meeting
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
2014
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15E
4Q15E
2015E
2016E
112
6%
114
18%
2.5%
-30.0%
0.0%
1.5%
1.5%
$136.13
118
18%
83
2%
3.6%
-50.0%
0.0%
1.5%
1.5%
$137.03
133
10%
92
5%
8.8%
-70.0%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
$136.00
137
20%
88
0%
3.0%
-70.0%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
$132.51
500
14%
377
7%
4.5%
-55.0%
0.8%
1.5%
1.5%
$135.42
129
15%
97
-15%
0.0%
-50.0%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
$124.86
140
19%
84
1%
-8.6%
-50.0%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
$112.65
146
10%
92
0%
-8.6%
-50.0%
0.0%
1.0%
1.0%
$110.00
141
3%
88
0%
-8.6%
-50.0%
0.0%
1.0%
1.0%
$110.00
556
11%
361
-4%
-6.5%
-50.0%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%
$114.38
548
-2%
369
2%
3.0%
-30.0%
2.5%
5.5%
1.0%
$110.00
$891.0
19.6
(13.7)
(14.8)
9.9
15.0
$907
$908.0
20.0
(13.9)
15.1
7.8
25.0
$962
$993.0
(2.5)
(14.9)
14.9
9.0
(13.5)
$986
$909.0
8.9
(13.8)
13.8
(0.0)
15.2
$933
$3,701.0
46.0
(56.2)
28.9
26.6
0.0
41.7
$3,788
$907.0
(14.5)
(8.9)
8.9
(16.3)
2.7
$879
$962.0
(2.8)
(9.6)
9.6
(37.5)
(57.7)
$864
$986.0
(36.2)
(9.5)
9.5
(39.9)
15.0
$925
$933.0
(58.1)
(8.7)
8.7
(32.7)
15.0
$857
$3,788.0
(111.5)
(36.8)
36.8
(126.4)
0.0
(25.0)
$3,525
$3,525.1
(73.6)
(34.5)
189.8
(29.1)
25.0
$3,603
$798.2
5.8
804.0
103.0
68.0
(9.0)
59.0
1.0
43.0
$846.6
(0.6)
846.0
116.0
72.2
(6.1)
66.0
0.0
50.0
$867.7
(4.7)
863.0
123.0
74.0
(20.0)
54.0
1.0
68.0
$821.0
(28.0)
793.0
140.0
70.0
8.0
78.0
0.0
62.0
$3,333.4
(27.4)
3,306.0
482.0
284.1
(27.1)
257.0
2.0
223.0
$769.1
(5.1)
764.0
115.0
61.5
3.5
65.0
(1.0)
51.0
$756.0
(7.0)
749.0
115.0
60.5
(3.5)
57.0
0.0
58.0
$809.3
(5.5)
803.8
121.1
64.7
(2.0)
62.7
0.0
58.4
$750.1
(5.5)
744.6
112.7
60.0
(2.0)
58.0
0.0
54.6
$3,084.5
(23.1)
3,061.3
463.8
246.8
(4.0)
242.7
(1.0)
222.0
$3,134.4
(25.0)
3,109.4
493.4
252.2
(18.0)
234.2
0.0
259.2
27.0
(8.0)
24.0
27.0
(9.0)
32.0
22.0
7.0
39.0
33.0
(10.0)
39.0
109.0
(20.0)
134.0
19.0
(11.0)
43.0
21.0
(11.0)
48.0
21.0
(4.0)
41.4
21.0
(2.0)
35.6
82.0
(28.0)
168.0
82.0
(20.0)
197.2
Taxes
Minority Interest
Net Income, Recurring
10.0
2.0
12.0
9.0
2.0
21.0
11.0
0.0
28.0
3.0
1.0
35.0
33.0
5.0
96.0
7.0
1.0
35.0
6.0
0.0
42.0
6.7
0.0
34.6
5.8
0.0
29.8
25.6
1.0
141.5
32.5
1.0
163.6
Nonrecurring Items
Discontinued Ops
Net Income, Reported
$12.0
(20.0)
0.0
$1.0
208.0
(2.0)
$234.0
(6.0)
(26.0)
$3.0
(3.0)
(3.0)
$29.0
(3.0)
4.0
$43.0
$34.6
$29.8
(6.0)
1.0
$136.5
$163.6
98.7
98.7
97.6
97.6
101.1
101.1
101.3
101.3
99.7
99.7
101.2
101.2
102.9
102.9
101.1
101.1
99.4
99.4
101.2
101.2
96.8
96.8
$0.12
$0.12
$0.22
$0.01
$0.28
$2.31
$0.35
$0.03
$0.96
$2.51
$0.35
$0.29
$0.41
$0.42
$0.34
$0.34
$0.30
$0.30
$1.40
$1.35
$1.69
$1.69
Adjusted EBITDA,
EBITDA/Share
$70.0
$0.72
$78.0
$0.80
$80.0
$0.82
$80.0
$0.82
$308.0
$3.09
$79.0
$0.79
$87.0
$0.87
$83.4
$0.84
$77.6
$0.78
$327.0
$3.23
$360.1
$3.72
Revenue Assumptions
NA Prd-M/H Trk (000)
Year/Year % Chg.
Europe-M/H Trk (000)
Year/Year % Chg.
Aftermarket
Military
ROW
Organic Growth
Price Reductions
FX-Euro ($/100)
Revenue Calculation
Ttl. Sgmt. Prior Year
Prod/Demand Chg
Pricing
Org Growth, Mix, etc.
FX-Euro
LVS & Other Divestitures
Other
Sales
Gross Profit Calculation
COGS-Estimate
COGS-Adjustment
COGS-Total
Gross Profit
SG&A-Estimate
SG&A-Adjustment
SG&A-Total
Amortization & Other
Operating Income
182.0
(28.0)
$250.0
11.4%
6.6%
4.7%
1.3%
7.7%
41.7%
12.1%
6.9%
5.2%
2.2%
8.1%
28.1%
12.5%
5.6%
6.9%
2.8%
8.1%
28.2%
15.0%
8.4%
6.6%
3.8%
8.6%
7.7%
12.7%
6.8%
5.9%
2.5%
8.1%
24.6%
13.1%
7.3%
5.8%
4.0%
9.0%
16.3%
13.3%
6.6%
6.7%
4.9%
10.1%
12.5%
13.1%
6.8%
6.3%
3.7%
9.0%
16.3%
13.1%
6.8%
6.4%
3.5%
9.1%
16.3%
13.2%
6.9%
6.3%
4.0%
9.3%
15.2%
13.7%
6.5%
7.2%
4.5%
10.0%
16.5%
1.8%
115.0%
5.9%
72.4%
250.0%
248.6%
-0.7%
25.9%
-15.2%
-18.4%
2.6%
-38.0%
218.2%
210.0%
2.4%
9.9%
146.2%
140.0%
-3.1%
18.6%
191.7%
184.5%
-10.2%
16.0%
100.0%
89.7%
-6.2%
-14.2%
23.7%
23.6%
-8.1%
-11.9%
-14.8%
-13.1%
-6.9%
-0.4%
47.4%
45.2%
2.2%
16.7%
15.6%
20.9%
Pg.3
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
51
Meritor - MTOR
Management Meeting
Revenue Assumptions
NA Prd-M/H Trk (000)
Year/Year % Chg.
Europe-M/H Trk (000)
Year/Year % Chg.
Aftermarket
Military
ROW
Organic Growth
Price Reductions
FX-Euro ($/100)
Revenue Calculation
Ttl. Sgmt. Prior Year
Prod/Demand Chg
Pricing
Org Growth, Mix, etc.
FX-Euro
LVS & Other Divestitures
Other
Sales
Gross Profit Calculation
COGS-Estimate
COGS-Adjustment
COGS-Total
Gross Profit
SG&A-Estimate
SG&A-Adjustment
SG&A-Total
Amortization & Other
Operating Income
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
463
32%
376
3%
0.0%
$121.70
582
26%
421
12%
0.0%
$125.47
621
7%
439
4%
0.0%
$123.08
484
-22%
479
9%
0.0%
$132.55
377
-22%
562
17%
0.0%
$150.31
231
-39%
266
-53%
0.0%
$135.47
257
11%
260
-2%
2.0%
-13.8%
37.0%
-1.7%
1.5%
$135.65
381
48%
383
47%
2.0%
-2.5%
10.0%
-2.4%
1.5%
$139.46
476
25%
379
-1%
0.0%
28.0%
-20.0%
-4.8%
1.5%
$129.84
440
-7%
354
-7%
0.0%
-33.8%
0.7%
-0.5%
1.5%
$131.22
500
14%
377
7%
4.5%
-55.0%
0.8%
1.5%
1.5%
$135.42
556
11%
361
-4%
-6.5%
-50.0%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%
$114.38
548
-2%
369
2%
3.0%
-30.0%
2.5%
5.5%
1.0%
$110.00
$6,882
$7,788
$8,836
$8,903
$9,150
$7,221
$7,167
(965.0)
$4,457
$4,457.0
673.5
(77.0)
(83.8)
3.3
(389.0)
0.0
$4,584
$4,584.0
1,271.9
(87.8)
(150.5)
43.4
(994.0)
0.0
$4,667
$4,667.0
318.0
(74.8)
(240.9)
(76.3)
(45.0)
(130.0)
$4,418
$4,418.0
(351.1)
(61.0)
(19.8)
9.8
0.0
(295.0)
$3,701
$3,701.0
46.0
(56.2)
28.9
26.6
0.0
41.7
$3,788
$3,788.0
(111.5)
(36.8)
36.8
(126.4)
0.0
(25.0)
$3,525
$3,525.1
(73.6)
(34.5)
189.8
(29.1)
25.0
$3,603
6,130.0
752.0
400.0
352.0
7,064.0
724.0
435.0
289.0
8,072.0
764.0
471.0
293.0
$8,197.8
70.2
8,263.0
640.0
391.3
(2.3)
394.0
246.0
$8,511.8
7.2
8,519.0
631.0
381.4
(1.4)
380.0
251.0
$6,695.7
14.3
6,710.0
511.0
370.6
15.4
386.0
125.0
$6,644.8
(130.8)
6,514.0
653.0
370.3
67.7
438.0
215.0
$4,093.4
42.6
4,136.0
321.0
355.1
(45.1)
310.0
11.0
$4,212.9
(128.9)
4,084.0
500.0
355.8
(9.8)
346.0
154.0
$4,107.0
86.0
4,193.0
474.0
294.6
(12.6)
282.0
192.0
$3,887.8
45.2
3,933.0
485.0
257.4
9.6
267.0
4.0
214.0
$3,256.9
39.1
3,296.0
405.0
214.7
39.3
254.0
(52.0)
203.0
$3,333.4
(27.4)
3,306.0
482.0
284.1
(27.1)
257.0
2.0
223.0
$3,084.5
(23.1)
3,061.3
463.8
246.8
(4.0)
242.7
(1.0)
222.0
$3,134.4
(25.0)
3,109.4
493.4
252.2
(18.0)
234.2
0.0
259.2
105.0
3.0
244.0
104.0
(24.0)
209.0
107.0
(10.0)
196.0
127.0
(28.0)
147.0
124.0
(36.0)
163.0
104.0
(36.0)
57.0
89.0
(43.9)
169.9
88.0
(19.0)
(58.0)
99.0
(46.0)
101.0
95.0
(73.0)
170.0
95.0
(59.0)
178.0
107.0
(19.0)
115.0
109.0
(20.0)
134.0
82.0
(28.0)
168.0
82.0
(20.0)
197.2
Taxes
Minority Interest
Net Income, Recurring
78.0
11.0
155.0
68.0
5.0
136.0
53.4
10.0
132.6
34.0
3.0
110.0
33.0
12.0
118.0
5.0
15.0
37.0
37.9
15.0
117.0
48.0
(3.0)
(103.0)
62.0
14.0
25.0
77.0
17.0
76.0
56.0
11.0
111.0
74.0
2.0
39.0
33.0
5.0
96.0
25.6
1.0
141.5
32.5
1.0
163.6
Nonrecurring Items
Discontinued Ops
Net Income, Reported
(48.0)
$107.0
$136.0
(172.6)
($40.0)
(98.0)
$12.0
(293.0)
($175.0)
(10.0)
$15.0
(23.0)
$53.0
(59.0)
$52.0
(57.0)
($18.0)
(6.0)
1.0
$136.5
$163.6
87.2
87.2
96.8
96.8
97.2
97.2
97.2
97.2
99.7
99.7
101.2
101.2
96.8
96.8
(191.4)
($154.4)
(208.0)
($91.0)
(1,109.0)
($1,212.0)
72.6
72.6
182.0
(28.0)
$250.0
67.2
67.2
67.9
67.9
68.6
68.6
69.9
69.9
69.3
69.3
71.1
71.1
72.4
72.4
$2.31
$1.59
$2.00
$2.00
$1.93
($0.58)
$1.57
$0.17
$1.69
($2.51)
$0.52
($2.17)
$1.60
($1.26)
($1.42)
($16.70)
$0.29
$0.17
$0.79
$0.55
$1.14
$0.53
$0.40
($0.19)
$0.96
$2.51
$1.40
$1.35
$1.69
$1.69
$534.0
$7.95
$522.0
$7.69
$476.0
$6.94
$453.0
$6.48
$447.0
$6.45
$275.0
$3.87
$388.9
$5.37
$114.0
$1.57
$266.0
$3.05
$342.0
$3.53
$345.0
$3.55
$261.0
$2.69
$308.0
$3.09
$327.0
$3.23
$360.1
$3.72
10.9%
5.8%
5.1%
2.3%
7.8%
32.0%
9.3%
5.6%
3.7%
1.7%
6.7%
32.5%
8.6%
5.3%
3.3%
1.5%
5.4%
27.2%
7.2%
4.4%
2.8%
1.2%
5.1%
23.1%
6.9%
4.2%
2.7%
1.3%
4.9%
20.2%
7.1%
5.3%
1.7%
0.5%
3.8%
8.8%
9.1%
6.1%
3.0%
1.6%
5.4%
22.3%
7.2%
7.0%
0.2%
2.6%
-82.8%
10.9%
7.5%
3.4%
0.5%
5.8%
61.4%
10.2%
6.0%
4.1%
1.6%
7.3%
45.3%
11.0%
6.1%
4.8%
2.5%
7.8%
31.5%
10.9%
5.5%
5.5%
1.1%
7.1%
64.3%
12.7%
6.8%
5.9%
2.5%
8.1%
24.6%
13.2%
6.9%
6.3%
4.0%
9.3%
15.2%
13.7%
6.5%
7.2%
4.5%
10.0%
16.5%
1.1%
26.2%
69.7%
67.3%
13.2%
-17.9%
-12.3%
-13.2%
13.5%
1.4%
-2.5%
-3.5%
0.8%
-16.0%
-17.0%
-18.6%
2.8%
2.0%
7.3%
7.6%
-21.1%
-50.2%
-68.6%
-69.2%
-0.7%
72.0%
216.2%
207.6%
-37.8%
-94.9%
-188.0%
-188.6%
2.8%
1300.0%
1.8%
24.7%
204.0%
173.9%
-5.3%
11.5%
46.1%
45.4%
-16.2%
-5.1%
-64.9%
-64.9%
2.4%
9.9%
146.2%
140.0%
-6.9%
-0.4%
47.4%
45.2%
2.2%
16.7%
15.6%
20.9%
Pg.4
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
52
Meritor - MTOR
Management Meeting
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
$56.0
1,251.0
458.0
211.0
1,976.0
$103.0
1,327.0
543.0
266.0
2,239.0
$132.0
1,478.0
523.0
218.0
2,351.0
$187.0
1,655.0
541.0
787.0
3,170.0
$350.0
1,645.0
596.0
502.0
3,093.0
$409.0
1,223.0
541.0
216.0
2,389.0
$497.0
1,114.0
623.0
218.0
2,452.0
$95.0
694.0
374.0
97.0
1,260.0
$343.0
579.0
382.0
417.0
1,721.0
$217.0
712.0
460.0
70.0
1,459.0
$257.0
542.0
438.0
61.0
1,298.0
$318.0
596.0
414.0
56.0
1,384.0
$247.0
610.0
379.0
56.0
1,292.0
$530.5
567.7
351.0
56.0
1,505.1
$663.0
580.2
356.5
56.0
1,655.6
1,179.0
808.0
688.0
$4,651
1,332.0
951.0
731.0
$5,253
1,032.0
808.0
1,369.0
$5,560
1,013.0
801.0
886.0
$5,870
988.0
503.0
929.0
$5,513
738.0
520.0
1,142.0
$4,789
775.0
522.0
925.0
$4,674
445.0
438.0
365.0
$2,508
389.0
432.0
337.0
$2,879
421.0
431.0
352.0
$2,663
417.0
433.0
353.0
$2,501
417.0
434.0
335.0
$2,570
424.0
431.0
355.0
$2,502
447.0
431.0
205.0
$2,588
470.0
431.0
205.0
$2,762
Short-term Debt
Accounts Payable
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
$15.0
1,150.0
578.0
1,743.0
$20.0
1,311.0
547.0
1,878.0
$3.0
1,366.0
602.0
1,971.0
$131.0
1,483.0
909.0
2,523.0
$56.0
1,649.0
844.0
2,549.0
$18.0
1,342.0
719.0
2,079.0
$240.0
1,287.0
610.0
2,137.0
$97.0
674.0
518.0
1,289.0
670.0
720.0
1,390.0
$84.0
841.0
328.0
1,253.0
$18.0
697.0
313.0
1,028.0
$13.0
694.0
339.0
1,046.0
$7.0
680.0
351.0
1,038.0
$7.0
629.7
351.0
987.7
$7.0
639.6
351.0
997.6
Long-term Debt
Preferred Securities
Other Long-term Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Total Liab. & Shr. Eqty.
1,435.0
39.0
635.0
799.0
$4,651
1,541.0
39.0
832.0
963.0
$5,253
1,487.0
39.0
1,075.0
988.0
$5,560
1,451.0
58.0
963.0
875.0
$5,870
1,184.0
0.0
771.0
1,009.0
$5,513
1,130.0
0.0
1,037.0
543.0
$4,789
1,063.0
1,012.0
462.0
$4,674
1,080.0
1,416.0
(1,277.0)
$2,508
1,029.0
1,483.0
(1,023.0)
$2,879
950.0
1,421.0
(961.0)
$2,663
1,042.0
1,413.0
(982.0)
$2,501
1,125.0
1,221.0
(822.0)
$2,570
965.0
1,084.0
(585.0)
$2,502
965.0
1,084.0
(448.5)
$2,588
965.0
1,084.0
(284.9)
$2,762
13.4
6.2
1.5
14.1
6.0
1.6
15.1
6.3
1.6
15.5
5.7
1.6
15.0
5.5
1.6
11.8
5.0
1.4
11.2
6.1
1.5
8.3
4.9
1.2
10.8
7.2
1.7
10.0
7.2
1.7
8.8
7.0
1.7
7.7
6.5
1.5
8.3
6.3
1.5
8.4
6.0
1.4
8.8
6.3
1.3
0.7
1.1
0.8
1.2
0.8
1.2
0.7
1.3
0.8
1.2
0.8
1.1
0.8
1.1
0.6
1.0
0.7
1.2
0.7
1.2
0.8
1.3
0.9
1.3
0.8
1.2
1.1
1.5
1.2
1.7
Activity Ratios
Inventory Turnover
Receivable Turnover
Total Asset Turnover
Liquidity Ratios
Quick Ratio
Current Ratio
Debt Ratios
EBIT Interest Coverage
EBITDA Interest Coverage
Funds from Ops./Total Debt
Free Oper. CF/Total Debt
Long Term Debt/Capital
Total Debt/Capital
3.2
5.0
24.2%
11.8%
63.1%
63.4%
2.9
4.9
22.4%
3.9%
60.6%
60.9%
2.7
4.3
21.2%
22.0%
59.1%
59.2%
2.1
3.5
18.5%
0.6%
60.9%
62.9%
2.1
3.4
23.4%
20.6%
54.0%
55.1%
1.4
2.5
14.5%
1.5%
67.5%
67.9%
2.5
4.0
20.1%
-4.1%
69.7%
73.8%
0.4
1.3
-1.9%
-6.3%
1.8
2.5
9.2%
8.3%
2.5
3.2
13.7%
-3.1%
2.7
3.3
16.4%
11.7%
1736.7%
1359.0%
2.0
2.6
9.3%
-0.9%
371.3%
360.1%
2.1
2.7
16.8%
10.8%
253.9%
251.2%
2.8
3.6
21.4%
14.3%
186.8%
185.7%
3.0
3.7
23.7%
13.6%
141.9%
141.5%
5.0%
20.4%
15.4%
4.2%
15.4%
12.3%
3.9%
13.6%
11.2%
3.6%
11.8%
10.5%
3.8%
12.5%
11.5%
2.6%
4.8%
7.2%
3.9%
23.3%
13.5%
1.6%
2.3%
4.6%
6.8%
3.0%
7.0%
8.3%
8.7%
Pg.5
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
53
Meritor - MTOR
Management Meeting
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
$107.0
196.0
4.0
(123.0)
$184
$136.0
214.0
(96.0)
1.0
$255
($40.0)
183.0
164.0
(88.0)
$219
$12.0
182.0
(136.0)
(90.0)
($32)
($175.0)
172.0
116.0
327.0
$440
($154.4)
129.0
(29.0)
90.4
$36
($91.0)
145.0
(144.0)
265.0
$163
($1,077.0)
81.0
59.0
642.0
($295)
Capital Expenditures
Sale of Prop., Plant & Equip.
Acquisitions/Divestitures
Other
Investing Cash Flow
(184.0)
11.0
(25.0)
($198)
(193.0)
21.0
0.0
($172)
(152.0)
82.0
(50.0)
($120)
(146.0)
18.0
153.0
$25
(150.0)
65.0
(6.0)
201.0
$110
(120.0)
12.0
199.0
5.0
$96
(172.0)
9.0
(57.0)
5.0
($160)
4.0
(9.0)
(27.0)
($32)
(29.0)
(27.0)
($56)
6.0
(55.0)
(28.0)
($77)
112.0
(26.0)
(28.0)
(4.0)
$54
1.0
(264.0)
(28.0)
(100.0)
($391)
28.0
(37.0)
(49.0)
(29.0)
(11.0)
($98)
132.0
(29.0)
(6.0)
$97
1.0
20.0
7.0
8.0
4.0
25.0
(12.0)
(15.0)
4.0
($45)
$47
$29
$55
$163
$59
$88
($402)
$248
101.0
$56.0
56.0
$103.0
103.0
$132.0
132.0
$187.0
187.0
$350.0
350.0
$409.0
409.0
$497.0
497.0
$95.0
95.0
$343.0
$155.0
105.0
78.0
196.0
$534
$136.0
104.0
68.0
214.0
$522
$132.6
107.0
53.4
183.0
$476
$110.0
127.0
34.0
182.0
$453
$118.0
124.0
33.0
172.0
$447
$37.0
104.0
5.0
129.0
$275
$117.0
89.0
37.9
145.0
$389
($103.0)
88.0
48.0
81.0
$114
$7.95
$7.69
$6.94
$6.48
$6.45
$3.87
$5.37
$22.67
67.2
1,450.0
39.0
56.0
$2,956
$17.05
67.9
1,561.0
39.0
103.0
$2,654
$20.46
68.6
1,490.0
39.0
132.0
$2,800
$18.05
69.9
1,582.0
58.0
187.0
$2,715
$15.50
69.3
1,240.0
0.0
350.0
$1,964
$18.64
71.1
1,148.0
0.0
409.0
$2,063
$13.17
72.4
1,303.0
497.0
$1,759
5.5
5.1
5.9
6.0
4.4
7.5
Enterprise Value = (Price x Shares) + LTD + Preferred Equity/Convertible Debt - Cash / Marketable Securities.
4.5
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
$12.0
70.0
46.0
83.0
$211
$82.0
66.0
(69.0)
(38.0)
$41
$52.0
63.0
39.0
(77.0)
$77
($18.0)
67.0
(62.0)
(83.0)
($96)
$250.0
67.0
19.0
(89.0)
$247
$136.5
67.0
20.1
(10.0)
$214
$163.6
67.0
(8.1)
0.0
$222
(111.0)
125.0
$14
(56.0)
(8.0)
($64)
(105.0)
(69.0)
2.0
($172)
(89.0)
18.0
28.0
3.0
($40)
(54.0)
1.0
182.0
8.0
$137
(77.0)
160.0
$83
(90.0)
160.0
$70
(90.0)
($90)
(9.0)
(83.0)
0.0
(14.0)
($106)
209.0
0.0
(54.0)
0.0
(58.0)
$97
14.0
0.0
(12.0)
$2
25.0
0.0
(1.0)
$24
0.0
$0
0.0
$0
0.0
$0
(1.0)
1.0
(4.0)
($126)
$40
$61
$330
$284
$132
343.0
$217.0
217.0
$257.0
257.0
$318.0
318.0
$648.0
648.0
$931.5
931.5
$1,064.0
$25.0
99.0
62.0
70.0
10.0
$266
$76.0
95.0
77.0
66.0
28.0
$342
$111.0
95.0
56.0
63.0
20.0
$345
$39.0
107.0
74.0
67.0
(26.0)
$261
$96.0
109.0
33.0
67.0
3.0
$308
$141.5
82.0
25.6
67.0
11.0
$327
$163.6
82.0
32.5
67.0
15.0
$360
$1.57
$3.05
$3.53
$3.55
$2.69
$3.09
$3.23
$3.72
$4.65
72.6
1,177.0
95.0
$1,419
$12.56
87.2
1,029.0
343.0
$1,781
$16.55
96.8
1,034.0
217.0
$2,418
$6.50
97.2
1,060.0
257.0
$1,435
$5.68
97.2
1,138.0
318.0
$1,372
$11.19
99.7
972.0
247.0
$1,840
$14.17
101.2
972.0
530.5
$1,875
$14.17
96.8
972.0
663.0
$1,680
12.5
2010
6.7
6.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$6
7.1
4.2
5.3
6.0
5.7
4.7
Pg.6
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54
Meritor - MTOR
Management Meeting
Table 1. Meritor EV/EBITDA Sensitivity Analysis - Brett D. Hoselton, CFA (216) 689-0237
($ in millions, except per share data; production in thousands)
Assumptions
2015-2016 New Business Revenue CAGR
Debt
Cash & Equivalents
Free Cash Flow
Share Repurchase
Dividend
Pension Contributions
Unfunded Pension
Deferred Tax Assets
FX-Euro-2014
FX-Euro-2016E
Shares
Comment
3%
$965
$247
$124
$105
$0
$11
$227
$0
$135.42
$110.00
97
As of 4Q14
As of 4Q14
Projected 2015E
Projected 2015E
Projected 2015E
Projected 2015E
As of 4Q14
Global Asset = $754 million.
Platform
N.A. Commercial Vehicle
N.A. Trailer
European Commercial Vehicle
Other
575
320
380
-39%
625
370
430
-34%
2014 Sales
Chg-Euro
Chg-N.A. Commercial Vehicle
Chg-N.A. Trailer
Chg-Europe Commercial Vehicle
Chg-Other
New Business
2016E Sales
$3,788
($144)
$558
$292
$84
($631)
$247
$4,194
EBITDA
Margin
8.5%
9.5%
10.5%
11.5%
12.5%
$4,194
$356
$398
$440
$482
$524
8.5%
9.5%
10.5%
11.5%
12.5%
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$14
$17
$20
$23
$26
8.5%
9.5%
10.5%
11.5%
12.5%
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$17
$20
$22
$25
$28
Pg.7
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
55
Meritor - MTOR
Management Meeting
Table 2. Meritor EPS Sensitivity Analysis - Brett D. Hoselton, CFA (216) 689-0237
($ in millions, except per share data; production in thousands)
Assumptions
2015-2016 New Business Revenue CAGR
D&A
Interest Expense
EBITDA Adjustment
Minority Interest
Other
FX-Euro-2014
FX-Euro-2016E
Tax Rate
Shares
Comment
3%
$67
$82
$15 MTOR adjustment of various items
$1
$0
$135.42
$110.00
17% Cash taxes potentially lower due to NOLs.
97
Region
N.A. Commercial Vehicle
N.A. Trailer
European Commercial Vehicle
Other
2014 Sales-CVS
Chg-Euro
Chg-N.A. Commercial Vehicle
Chg-N.A. Trailer
Chg-Europe Commercial Vehicle
Chg-Other
New Business
2016E Sales
EBITDA
Margin
8.5%
9.5%
10.5%
11.5%
12.5%
8.5%
9.5%
10.5%
11.5%
12.5%
$7
$9
$12
$14
$16
575
320
380
-39%
625
370
430
-34%
$4,194
$1.65
$2.01
$2.37
$2.74
$3.10
$15
$18
$21
$25
$28
Pg.8
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
56
Disclosure Appendix
Meritor, Inc. - MTOR
We expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from Meritor, Inc. within the next three months.
As of the date of this report, we make a market in Meritor, Inc..
For the three-year history represented in this chart, this stock has been rated Sector Weight.
Oshkosh Corporation - OSK
We expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from Oshkosh Corporation within the next
three months.
As of the date of this report, we make a market in Oshkosh Corporation.
WABCO Holdings Inc. - WBC
We expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from WABCO Holdings Inc. within the next
three months.
As of the date of this report, we make a market in WABCO Holdings Inc..
Pg.9
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
57
Rating Disclosures
Distribution of Ratings/IB Services
KeyBanc Capital Markets
IB Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating
Count
Percent
Count
Percent
Overweight [OW]
358
46.55
79
22.07
391
50.85
67
17.14
20
2.60
5.00
Underweight [UW]
Pg.10
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
58
Other Disclosures
KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of
KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC (KBCMI), and KeyBank National
Association (KeyBank N.A.), are marketed. Pacific Crest Securities is a division of KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.
KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. (KBCMI) does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As
a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
This report has been prepared by KBCMI. The material contained herein is based on data from sources considered to be
reliable; however, KBCMI does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information. It is published for
informational purposes only and should not be used as the primary basis of investment decisions. Neither the information
nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security. The opinions and
estimates expressed reflect the current judgment of KBCMI and are subject to change without notice. This report may contain
forward-looking statements, which involve risk and uncertainty. Actual results may differ significantly from the forward-looking
statements. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific
investment objectives, financial situation and the specific needs of any person or entity.
No portion of an analysts compensation is based on a specific banking transaction; however, part of his/her compensation
may be based upon overall firm revenue and profitability, of which investment banking is a component. Individuals associated
with KBCMI (other than the research analyst(s) listed on page 1 of this research report) may have a position (long or short) in
the securities covered in this research report and may make purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market
or otherwise without notice. As required by NASD Rule 2711(h)(1)(A), financial interest, if any, by any research analysts
listed on page 1 of this report will be disclosed in Important Disclosures, Company-specific regulatory disclosures located
above in the Disclosure Appendix. KBCMI itself may have a position (long or short) in the securities covered in this research
report and may make purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise without notice. As required
by NASD Rule 2711(h)(1)(B), if KBCMI beneficially owns 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject
company(ies) in this research report as of the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research
report will be disclosed in Important Disclosures, Company-specific regulatory disclosures located above in the Disclosures
Appendix. This communication is intended solely for use by KBCMI clients. The recipient agrees not to forward or copy the
information to any other person without the express written consent of KBCMI.
Pg.11
(216) 689-0237 / bhoselton@key.com
59
COMPANY NOTE
April 29, 2015
Neutral
We are updating our model and adjusting our estimates to reflect 2Q15 results and
revised company guidance. Our price target remains at $13 based on 7x 2016 EV/
EBITDA (EBITDA $382.3M, $1.33B net debt, and 102.9M shares).
PRICE: US$12.84
TARGET: US$13.00
7.0x 2016E EV/EBITDA (EBITDA $382.3m,
$1.33bn net debt, 102.9m shares)
R I S K S T O A C H I E V E M E N T O F P R I C E TA R G E T
Alexander E. Potter
Sr Research Analyst, Piper Jaffray & Co.
612 303-6709, alexander.e.potter@pjc.com
Winnie Dong
Research Analyst, Piper Jaffray & Co.
212 284-9338, winnie.x.dong@pjc.com
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
MTOR makes axles, drivelines, suspensions, and brakes for trucks & machinery.
Changes
Rating
Price Tgt
FY15E Rev (mil)
FY16E Rev (mil)
FY15E EPS
FY16E EPS
Previous
US$3,711.2
US$3,943.0
US$1.25
US$1.72
Current
Neutral
US$13.00
US$3,528.5
US$3,801.8
US$1.36
US$1.74
US$15.65 / US$9.46
101.2
US$1,299.4
1,247
US$(5.79)
US$(7.22)
155%
US$0.00
Sep
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
Apr-14 Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Source: Bloomberg
YEAR
REVENUE (US$ m)
Dec
Mar
Jun
Sep
FY
CY
FY RM
CY RM
Dec
Mar
Jun
Sep
FY
CY
FY P/E
CY P/E
2014A
907.0
962.0
986.0
933.0
3,766.0
3,752.0
0.3x
0.3x
0.12
0.22
0.28
0.35
1.02
1.21
12.6x
10.6x
2015E
879.0A
864.0A
919.8
865.7
3,528.5
3,591.9
0.4x
0.4x
0.35A
0.41
0.32
0.29
1.36
1.41
9.4x
9.1x
2016E
942.3
955.9
990.2
913.3
3,801.8
3,782.1
0.3x
0.3x
0.39
0.44
0.50
0.41
1.74
1.70
7.4x
7.6x
Piper Jaffray does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware
that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as
only a single factor in making their investment decisions. This report should be read in conjunction with important disclosure
information, including an attestation under Regulation Analyst certification, found on pages 8 - 9 of this report or at the following
site: http://www.piperjaffray.com/researchdisclosures.
Meritor, Inc.
Page 1 of 9
60
Date: 4/29/2015
Current disclosure information for this company can be found at:
http://www.piperjaffray.com/researchdisclosures
Net sales
Cost of sales
Gross profit
Selling, general and administrative
Other expenses
Operating Income from con. Op.
Equity share unconsolidated affiliates
Other income(expense)
EBIT
Net interest income (expense)
Income before income taxes
Income taxes
Income from continuing operations
Minority interest
Earnings from discontinued ops
Net income (loss) attributed to MTOR
Adjustments
Adjusted net income (loss) from cont. OP
Diluted income per common share:
Reported EPS (GAAP)
Operating EPS (Non-GAAP)
Weighted average diluted shares
EBITDA
1Q
Dec-12
891.0
808.0
83.0
62.0
7.0
14.0
9.0
23.0
(29.0)
(6.0)
10.0
(16.0)
(5.0)
(21.0)
5.0
(11.0)
FY2013
2Q
3Q
Mar-13
Jun-13
908.0
993.0
813.0
884.0
95.0
109.0
65.0
67.0
12.0
48.0
18.0
(6.0)
10.0
15.0
28.0
9.0
(25.0)
(45.0)
3.0
(36.0)
7.0
1.0
(4.0)
(37.0)
(1.0)
(4.0)
(38.0)
10.0
70.0
6.0
33.0
4Q
Sep-13
902.0
803.0
99.0
60.0
(54.0)
93.0
8.0
3.0
111.0
(27.0)
84.0
45.0
39.0
2.0
4.0
41.0
(26.0)
11.0
1QA
Dec-13
900.0
795.0
105.0
59.0
2.0
44.0
8.0
52.0
(27.0)
25.0
11.0
14.0
2.0
(1.0)
11.0
1.0
13.0
FY2014A
2QA
3QA
Mar-14
Jun-14
954.0
986.0
836.0
863.0
118.0
123.0
66.0
54.0
2.0
1.0
50.0
68.0
9.0
201.0
59.0
269.0
(48.0)
(22.0)
11.0
247.0
8.0
11.0
3.0
236.0
2.0
3.0
(2.0)
4.0
234.0
23.0
(208.0)
24.0
28.0
($0.22)
($0.11)
96.7
46.0
($0.04)
$0.06
97.2
58.0
($0.39)
$0.34
97.2
87.0
$0.42
$0.11
98.7
70.0
$0.11
$0.13
98.7
72.0
$0.04
$0.25
97.6
80.0
Growth Rates:
Total Sales
EBIT
EBITDA
Net income
EPS (operating)
-23.1%
-34.3%
-41.8%
-4.5%
-197.7%
-21.7%
-61.6%
-38.9%
-120.0%
-81.3%
-10.8%
-89.9%
-7.4%
-177.6%
-10.8%
-8.5%
217.1%
-11.4%
720.0%
-65.1%
1.0%
126.1%
56.5%
-152.4%
-215.8%
5.1%
110.7%
37.9%
-200.0%
298.4%
9.3%
7.0%
5.2%
-166.7%
10.5%
7.2%
6.4%
233.3%
11.0%
6.7%
8.8%
-2.8%
11.0%
6.7%
7.8%
53.6%
11.7%
6.6%
8.0%
44.0%
12.4%
6.9%
8.4%
72.7%
Meritor, Inc.
$2.31
$0.28
101.1
80.0
4QA
Sep-14
933.0
793.0
140.0
80.0
7.0
53.0
10.0
63.0
(33.0)
30.0
30.0
1.0
(26.0)
3.0
6.0
35.0
1QA
Dec-14
879.0
764.0
115.0
65.0
2.0
48.0
9.0
2.0
59.0
(19.0)
40
7.0
33
1.0
(3.0)
29.0
3.0
35
FY2015E
2QA
3Q
Mar-15
Jun-15
864.0
919.8
749.0
800.3
115.0
119.6
57.0
3.0
55.0
9.0
2.0
66.0
59.8
(21.0)
(21.0)
45
39
6.0
5.7
39
33
1.0
4.0
43.0
32.1
3.0
42
32
4Q
Sep-15
865.7
753.1
112.5
56.5
(20.8)
36
5.3
30
1.0
29.4
29
1Q
Dec-15
942.3
819.8
122.5
69.3
(21.6)
48
7.6
40
1.0
39.1
39
FY2016E
2Q
3Q
Mar-16
Jun-16
955.9
990.2
831.6
861.5
124.3
128.7
74.1
80.2
(21.3)
(21.1)
53
59
8.4
9.5
44
50
1.0
1.0
43.3
48.6
43
49
4Q
Sep-16
913.3
794.6
118.7
69.2
(20.9)
48
7.7
41
1.0
39.6
40
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015E
FY2016E
4,418.0
3,933.0
485.0
285.0
27.0
173.0
52.0
7.0
232.0
(95.0)
137.0
56.0
81.0
11.0
(18.0)
52.0
41.0
111.0
3,694.0
3,308.0
386.0
254.0
13.0
119.0
42.0
3.0
171.0
(126.0)
45.0
63.0
(18.0)
2.0
(2.0)
(22.0)
59.0
39.0
3,758.0
3,269.0
489.0
258.0
12.0
219.0
228.0
447.0
(130.0)
317.0
31.0
286.0
5.0
(31.0)
252.0
(178.0)
105.0
3,528.5
3,066.4
462.1
122.0
5.0
103.0
18.0
4.0
241.2
(81.7)
159.5
24.0
135.5
3.0
1.0
133.5
6.0
138.5
3,801.8
3,307.5
494.2
292.8
(84.9)
207.9
33.3
174.6
4.0
170.6
170.6
$2.54
$1.05
99.7
318.0
$1.31
$1.36
101.6
326.5
$1.74
$1.74
97.9
382.3
$0.03
$0.35
101.3
80.0
$0.29
$0.35
101.2
79.0
$0.42
$0.41
102.9
87.0
$0.32
$0.32
101.8
81.9
$0.29
$0.29
100.7
78.6
$0.39
$0.39
99.5
91.6
$0.44
$0.44
98.4
96.4
$0.50
$0.50
97.3
102.6
$0.41
$0.41
96.2
91.7
$0.54
$1.14
97.2
345.0
($0.22)
$0.40
97.1
261.0
-0.7%
2888.9%
-8.0%
-715.8%
-18.4%
3.4%
-43.2%
14.3%
-92.7%
210.0%
-2.3%
13.5%
9.7%
163.6%
162.6%
-9.4%
11.9%
8.7%
975.0%
66.0%
-6.7%
-77.8%
2.3%
-86.3%
13.9%
-7.2%
-10.4%
-1.7%
880.6%
-15.4%
7.2%
17.5%
15.9%
34.9%
13.6%
10.6%
12.3%
10.8%
0.7%
7.8%
7.7%
34.1%
25.3%
51.4%
58.4%
5.5%
22.5%
16.6%
34.5%
40.7%
-4.4%
-8.7%
NA
-17.5%
34.1%
-16.4%
-26.3%
-24.3%
-142.3%
-64.9%
1.7%
161.4%
21.8%
-1245.5%
162.5%
-6.1%
-46.0%
2.7%
-47.0%
29.5%
7.7%
21.4%
17.1%
27.8%
27.9%
12.5%
5.5%
8.1%
4.5%
15.0%
8.6%
8.6%
0.0%
13.1%
7.4%
9.0%
17.5%
13.3%
0.1
10.1%
13.3%
13.0%
0.0%
8.9%
14.7%
13.0%
0.0%
9.1%
14.8%
13.0%
0.0%
9.7%
16.0%
13.0%
0.0%
10.1%
16.0%
13.0%
0.0%
10.4%
16.0%
13.0%
0.0%
10.0%
16.0%
11.0%
6.5%
7.8%
40.9%
10.4%
6.9%
7.1%
140.0%
13.0%
6.9%
8.5%
9.8%
13.1%
3.5%
9.3%
15.0%
13.0%
0.0%
10.1%
16.0%
Page 2 of 9
61
1Q
Dec-12
Revenue by Segment & Geography
North America
Europe
S. America (mostly Brazil)
China
Other Asia Pacific (Includes India)
Total Commercial Truck & Industrial
Aftermarket & Trailer
Total Revenue (Before Intersegment)
Intersegment Eliminations
Total Consolidated Revenue
Sales Growth (y/y%) by Segment & Geography
North America
Europe
S. America (mostly Brazil)
China
Other Asia Pacific (Includes India)
Total Commercial Truck & Industrial
Aftermarket & Trailer
Total Revenue (Before Intersegment)
Intersegment Eliminations
Total Consolidated Revenue
Revenue Seasonality Assumptions
Commercial Truck & Industrial
Aftermarket & Trailer
Meritor, Inc.
FY2013
2Q
3Q
Mar-13
Jun-13
4Q
Sep-13
715
203
918
(27.0)
891
712
224
936
(28.0)
908
784
238
1,022
(29.0)
993
709
233
942
(33.0)
909
1QA
Dec-13
30.0
727
208
935
(28.0)
907
-26.7%
-6.9%
-23.1%
-20.6%
-23.1%
-25.2%
-7.8%
-21.7%
-20.0%
-21.7%
-13.2%
-2.5%
-10.9%
-14.7%
-10.8%
-9.5%
0.4%
-7.2%
13.8%
-7.8%
24.5%
22.6%
24.4%
24.9%
26.8%
26.5%
24.3%
25.9%
FY2014A
2QA
3QA
Mar-14
Jun-14
4QA
Sep-14
1QA
Dec-14
FY2015E
2QA
3Q
Mar-15
Jun-15
4Q
Sep-15
1Q
Dec-15
FY2016E
2Q
3Q
Mar-16
Jun-16
4Q
Sep-16
(PJC est)
FY2012
(PJC est)
FY2013
(PJC est)
FY2014
FY2015E
FY2016E
763
225
988
(34.0)
954
761
259
1,020
(34.0)
986
729
240
969
(36.0)
933
703
208
911
(32.0)
879
681
212
893
(29.0)
864
716
235
951
(31.4)
920
676
219
895
(29.5)
866
767
208
975
(32.2)
942
764
224
989
(32.6)
956
782
242
1,024
(33.8)
990
718
226
944
(31.2)
913
1,836.4
712.7
484.0
262.6
317.2
3,613.0
937.0
4,550.0
(132.0)
4,418.0
1,468.6
616.8
463.2
142.4
229.0
2,920.0
898.0
3,818.0
(117.0)
3,701.0
1,527.8
640.3
422.5
151.2
238.2
2,980.0
920.0
3,900.0
(134.0)
3,766.0
1,693.3
591.7
180.0
121.0
190.5
2,776.4
874.0
3,650.4
(121.9)
3,528.5
1,825.4
627.2
198.0
133.1
247.7
3,031.3
900.2
3,931.5
(129.7)
3,801.8
1.7%
2.5%
1.9%
3.7%
1.8%
7.2%
0.4%
5.6%
21.4%
5.1%
-2.9%
8.8%
-0.2%
17.2%
-0.7%
2.8%
3.0%
2.9%
9.1%
2.6%
-3.3%
0.0%
-2.6%
14.3%
-3.1%
-10.7%
-5.8%
-9.6%
-14.7%
-9.4%
-5.9%
-9.2%
-6.7%
-7.7%
-6.7%
-7.2%
-8.8%
-7.6%
-17.9%
-7.2%
9.1%
-0.2%
7.0%
0.5%
7.2%
12.2%
5.7%
10.7%
12.5%
10.6%
9.2%
3.0%
7.7%
7.7%
7.7%
6.2%
3.4%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
20.4%
-17.0%
-37.2%
-18.6%
-9.7%
-5.6%
-1.3%
-4.8%
-14.8%
-4.4%
-20.0%
-13.5%
-4.3%
-45.8%
-27.8%
-19.2%
-4.2%
-16.1%
-11.4%
-16.2%
4.0%
3.8%
-8.8%
6.2%
4.0%
2.1%
2.4%
2.1%
14.5%
1.8%
10.8%
-7.6%
-57.4%
-20.0%
-20.0%
-6.8%
-5.0%
-6.4%
-9.0%
-6.3%
7.8%
6.0%
10.0%
10.0%
30.0%
9.2%
3.0%
7.7%
6.4%
7.7%
24.4%
22.6%
25.6%
24.5%
25.5%
28.2%
24.5%
26.1%
25.3%
23.8%
24.5%
24.3%
25.8%
26.9%
24.4%
25.0%
25.3%
23.1%
25.2%
24.9%
25.8%
26.9%
23.7%
25.1%
Page 3 of 62
9
Segment Analysis
Revenue by Segment
Commercial Truck & Industrial
Aftermarket & Trailer
Intersegment Eliminations
Total Consolidated Revenue
Segment EBITDA & EBIT
Commercial Truck & Industrial
Aftermarket & Trailer
Total segment EBITDA
Unallocated costs, net
Adjusted EBITDA
Depreciation and Amortization
Other costs
EBIT
1Q
Dec-12
FY2013
2Q
3Q
Mar-13
Jun-13
4Q
Sep-13
1QA
Dec-13
FY2014A
2QA
3QA
Mar-14
Jun-14
4QA
Sep-14
1QA
Dec-14
FY2015E
2QA
3Q
Mar-15
Jun-15
4Q
Sep-15
1Q
Dec-15
FY2016E
2Q
3Q
Mar-16
Jun-16
4Q
Sep-16
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015E FY2016E
715.0
203.0
(27.0)
891.0
712.0
224.0
(28.0)
908.0
784.0
238.0
(29.0)
993.0
709.0
227.0
(34.0)
902.0
727.0
202.0
(29.0)
900.0
763.0
225.0
(34.0)
954.0
761.0
259.0
(34.0)
986.0
729.0
240.0
(36.0)
933.0
703.0
208.0
(32.0)
879.0
681.0
212.0
(29.0)
864.0
716.1
235.1
(31.4)
919.8
676.3
218.9
(29.5)
865.7
766.8
207.7
(32.2)
942.3
764.4
224.1
(32.6)
955.9
781.9
242.1
(33.8)
990.2
718.2
226.3
(31.2)
913.3
3,613.0
937.0
(132.0)
4,418.0
2,920.0
892.0
(118.0)
3,694.0
2,980.0
913.0
(135.0)
3,758.0
2,776.4
874.0
(121.9)
3,528.5
3,031.3
900.2
(129.7)
3,801.8
34.0
13.0
47.0
(1.0)
46.0
(16.0)
(7.0)
23.0
37.0
22.0
59.0
(1.0)
58.0
(17.0)
(13.0)
28.0
67.0
25.0
92.0
(5.0)
87.0
(16.0)
(62.0)
9.0
54.0
24.0
78.0
(8.0)
70.0
(17.0)
58.0
111.0
53.0
21.0
74.0
(2.0)
72.0
(16.0)
(4.0)
52.0
57.0
24.0
81.0
(1.0)
80.0
(17.0)
(4.0)
59.0
55.0
26.0
81.0
(1.0)
80.0
(17.0)
206.0
269.0
53.0
34.0
87.0
(7.0)
80.0
(17.0)
63.0
56.0
25.0
81.0
(2.0)
79.0
(15.0)
(5.0)
59.0
57.0
30.0
87.0
87.0
(17.0)
(4.0)
66.0
58.0
25.9
83.9
(2.0)
81.9
(17.1)
(5.0)
59.8
55.5
25.2
80.6
(2.0)
78.6
(17.2)
(5.0)
56.5
68.2
25.3
93.6
(2.0)
91.6
(17.3)
(5.0)
69.3
71.1
27.3
98.4
(2.0)
96.4
(17.3)
(5.0)
74.1
75.1
29.5
104.6
(2.0)
102.6
(17.4)
(5.0)
80.2
66.1
27.6
93.7
(2.0)
91.7
(17.5)
(5.0)
69.2
270.0
81.0
351.0
(6.0)
345.0
(63.0)
(61.0)
221.0
192.0
84.0
276.0
(15.0)
261.0
(66.0)
(23.0)
172.0
218.0
110.0
328.0
(10.0)
318.0
(67.0)
198.0
443.0
226.5
106.0
332.5
(6.0)
326.5
(66.3)
(19.0)
241.2
280.5
109.8
390.3
(8.0)
382.3
(69.5)
(20.0)
292.8
EBITDA Margins
Commercial Truck & Industrial
Aftermarket & Trailer
Total segment EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA
EBIT
4.8%
6.4%
5.3%
5.2%
2.6%
5.2%
9.8%
6.5%
6.4%
3.1%
8.5%
10.5%
9.3%
8.8%
0.9%
7.6%
10.6%
8.6%
7.8%
12.3%
7.3%
10.4%
8.2%
8.0%
5.8%
7.5%
10.7%
8.5%
8.4%
6.2%
7.2%
10.0%
8.2%
8.1%
27.3%
7.3%
14.2%
9.3%
8.6%
6.8%
8.0%
12.0%
9.2%
9.0%
6.7%
8.4%
14.2%
10.1%
10.1%
7.6%
8.1%
11.0%
9.1%
8.9%
6.5%
8.2%
11.5%
9.3%
9.1%
6.5%
8.9%
12.2%
9.9%
9.7%
7.4%
9.3%
12.2%
10.3%
10.1%
7.8%
9.6%
12.2%
10.6%
10.4%
8.1%
9.2%
12.2%
10.3%
10.0%
7.6%
Incremental Margins
Commercial Truck & Industrial (y/y)
Aftermarket & Trailer (y/y)
Total Adjusted EBITDA (y/y)
Total Adjusted EBITDA (q/q)
10.4%
26.7%
12.3%
34.7%
15.8%
10.5%
14.7%
70.6%
3.4%
-50.0%
5.8%
34.1%
12.2%
-120.0%
10.7%
18.7%
158.3%
-800.0%
288.9%
-100.0%
39.2%
200.0%
47.8%
14.8%
52.2%
4.8%
100.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
76.9%
32.3%
0.0%
-12.5%
66.7%
-33.3%
1.9%
0.0%
-46.2%
-7.8%
-53.3%
-6.7%
0.6%
-2.8%
-9.2%
-4.7%
41.8%
2.0%
6.0%
19.2%
-104.6%
19.9%
16.9%
16.9%
-21.9%
10.3%
35.8%
25.9%
52.2%
29.5%
18.0%
25.3%
33.0%
27.4%
14.2%
Meritor, Inc.
FY2012
7.5%
8.6%
7.9%
7.8%
5.0%
6.6%
9.4%
7.5%
7.1%
4.7%
7.3%
12.0%
8.7%
8.5%
11.8%
8.2%
12.1%
9.4%
9.3%
6.8%
9.3%
12.2%
10.3%
10.1%
7.7%
11.3%
-6.7%
11.6%
43.3%
123.8%
89.1%
-4.2%
10.2%
-3.7%
21.2%
14.5%
20.4%
Page 4 of 9
63
1Q
Dec-12
ASSETS
Cash and cash equivalents
Accounts receivable
Inventories
Other current assets
Total current assets
PP&E
Goodwill
Other assets
Total Assets
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
Accounts payable, deferred revenues and other
Other current liabilities
Short-term debt (incl. curr. port. of LT debt)
Total current liabilities
Long term debt
Retirement benefits
Others
Total Liabilities
Total equity (deficit)
Noncontrolling interests
% sales analysis:
LTM sales
LTM COGS
AR
Inventory
AP as % of COGS
Net Working Capital as % of Sales
Meritor, Inc.
FY2013
2Q
3Q
Mar-13
Jun-13
4Q
Sep-13
1QA
Dec-13
FY2014A
2QA
3QA
Mar-14
Jun-14
4QA
Sep-14
1QA
Dec-14
FY2015E
2QA
3Q
Mar-15
Jun-15
4Q
Sep-15
1Q
Dec-15
FY2016E
2Q
3Q
Mar-16
Jun-16
4Q
Sep-16
139.0
483.0
463.0
56.0
1,141.0
407.0
433.0
360.0
2,341.0
117.0
555.0
420.0
54.0
1,146.0
395.0
427.0
369.0
2,337.0
228.0
596.0
411.0
51.0
1,286.0
384.0
427.0
380.0
2,477.0
318.0
596.0
414.0
56.0
1,384.0
417.0
434.0
335.0
2,570.0
300.0
534.0
432.0
57.0
1,323.0
410.0
436.0
328.0
2,497.0
233.0
618.0
436.0
58.0
1,345.0
410.0
437.0
339.0
2,531.0
303.0
644.0
441.0
56.0
1,444.0
411.0
439.0
516.0
2,810.0
247.0
610.0
379.0
56.0
1,292.0
424.0
431.0
355.0
2,502.0
214.0
511.0
379.0
58.0
1,162.0
407.0
423.0
354.0
2,346.0
207.0
545.0
365.0
55.0
1,172.0
387.0
414.0
344.0
2,317.0
219.2
514.2
366.8
55.0
1,155.1
399.3
414.0
344.0
2,312.5
238.8
504.6
359.9
55.0
1,158.2
409.9
414.0
344.0
2,326.1
238.3
513.6
366.4
55.0
1,173.3
413.8
414.0
344.0
2,345.1
240.1
526.8
375.7
55.0
1,197.6
418.0
414.0
344.0
2,373.6
247.5
536.8
382.9
55.0
1,222.3
422.8
414.0
344.0
2,403.1
249.3
543.7
387.8
55.0
1,235.7
425.9
414.0
344.0
2,419.6
597.0
297.0
23.0
917.0
1,032.0
1,070.0
333.0
3,352.0
616.0
297.0
25.0
938.0
1,030.0
1,056.0
327.0
3,351.0
657.0
328.0
23.0
1,008.0
1,144.0
1,043.0
341.0
3,536.0
694.0
339.0
13.0
1,046.0
1,125.0
886.0
335.0
3,392.0
651.0
323.0
12.0
986.0
1,126.0
875.0
318.0
3,305.0
696.0
345.0
6.0
1,047.0
1,082.0
868.0
316.0
3,313.0
715.0
351.0
5.0
1,071.0
1,086.0
861.0
319.0
3,337.0
680.0
351.0
7.0
1,038.0
965.0
775.0
309.0
3,087.0
597.0
292.0
5.0
894.0
962.0
759.0
307.0
2,922.0
618.0
281.0
5.0
904.0
945.0
737.0
301.0
2,887.0
605.7
281.0
5.0
891.7
927.5
737.0
309.0
2,865.2
613.3
281.0
5.0
899.3
910.0
737.0
318.0
2,864.3
624.4
281.0
5.0
910.4
892.5
737.0
319.0
2,858.9
641.0
281.0
5.0
927.0
875.0
737.0
320.0
2,859.0
653.2
281.0
5.0
939.2
857.5
737.0
321.0
2,854.7
661.5
281.0
5.0
947.5
840.0
737.0
322.0
2,846.5
(1,041.0)
30.0
(1,042.0)
28.0
(1,086.0)
27.0
(850.0)
28.0
(838.0)
30.0
(813.0)
31.0
(558.0)
31.0
(612.0)
27.0
(603.0)
27.0
(596.0)
26.0
(578.7)
26.0
(564.1)
26.0
(539.9)
26.0
(511.4)
26.0
(477.6)
26.0
(452.9)
26.0
4,150.0
3,688.0
11.6%
11.2%
16.2%
8.0%
3,898.0
3,475.0
14.2%
10.8%
17.7%
8.7%
3,778.0
3,378.0
15.8%
10.9%
19.4%
8.8%
3,694.0
3,308.0
16.1%
11.2%
21.0%
9.0%
3,703.0
3,295.0
14.4%
11.7%
19.8%
9.1%
3,749.0
3,318.0
16.5%
11.6%
21.0%
9.1%
3,742.0
3,297.0
17.2%
11.8%
21.7%
9.1%
3,773.0
3,287.0
16.2%
10.0%
20.7%
8.8%
3,752.0
3,256.0
13.6%
10.1%
18.3%
8.8%
3,662.0
3,169.0
14.9%
10.0%
19.5%
8.9%
3,595.8
3,106.3
14.3%
10.2%
19.5%
8.6%
3,528.5
3,066.4
14.3%
10.2%
20.0%
8.1%
3,591.9
3,122.2
14.3%
10.2%
20.0%
7.6%
3,683.7
3,204.9
14.3%
10.2%
20.0%
7.3%
3,754.1
3,266.1
14.3%
10.2%
20.0%
7.0%
3,801.8
3,307.5
14.3%
10.2%
20.0%
6.9%
Page 5 of 9
64
1Q
Dec-12
Cash flows from operating activities:
Net income (loss)
(16.0)
Depreciation and amortization
16.0
Exp assoc. with share-based comp, stock option Deferred income taxes
Other
32.0
Loss on sale of assets
Changes in assets and liabilities:
Receivables
59.0
Inventories
(25.0)
Accounts payable
(100.0)
Accrued expenses
Other assets and liabilities
(47.0)
Net cash provided by operating activities
(81.0)
FY2013
2Q
3Q
Mar-13
Jun-13
4Q
Sep-13
1QA
Dec-13
FY2014A
2QA
3QA
Mar-14
Jun-14
4QA
Sep-14
1QA
Dec-14
FY2015E
2QA
3Q
Mar-15
Jun-15
4Q
Sep-15
1Q
Dec-15
FY2016E
2Q
3Q
Mar-16 Jun-16
4Q
Sep-16
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015E
FY2016E
(4.0)
17.0
(97.0)
-
(37.0)
16.0
62.0
-
39.0
18.0
41.0
-
14.0
16.0
81.0
-
3.0
17.0
(44.0)
-
236.0
17.0
(203.0)
-
30.0
17.0
10.0
-
33.0
15.0
46.0
-
39.0
17.0
(114.0)
-
33.1
17.1
-
30.4
17.2
-
40.1
17.3
-
44.3
17.3
-
49.6
17.4
-
40.6
17.5
-
81.0
63.0
108.0
-
(18.0)
67.0
38.0
-
283.0
67.0
(156.0)
-
135.5
66.3
(68.0)
-
(72.0)
43.0
19.0
66.0
(28.0)
(41.0)
9.0
41.0
(14.0)
36.0
(3.0)
37.0
(140.0)
(8.0)
62.0
(18.0)
(43.0)
(116.0)
(4.0)
(84.0)
(4.0)
45.0
89.0
22.0
(26.0)
(5.0)
19.0
47.0
85.0
34.0
62.0
(35.0)
(6.0)
112.0
99.0
(83.0)
(119.0)
(9.0)
(34.0)
14.0
21.0
95.0
38.0
30.8
(1.8)
(12.3)
7.0
73.9
9.6
6.9
7.6
8.0
79.6
(9.1)
(6.5)
11.2
53.0
(13.1)
(9.4)
16.5
55.7
(10.1)
(7.2)
12.2
62.0
(6.8)
(4.9)
8.3
54.7
170.0
22.0
(144.0)
(211.0)
89.0
(54.0)
24.0
(3.0)
(135.0)
(81.0)
(14.0)
35.0
(14.0)
14.0
215.0
105.4
19.1
(66.7)
(9.0)
182.6
174.6
69.5
(39.1)
(27.9)
48.2
225.4
(15.0)
(15.0)
(8.0)
6.0
(2.0)
(8.0)
(5.0)
(13.0)
(23.0)
1.0
182.0
1.0
161.0
(12.0)
(12.0)
(13.0)
3.0
(10.0)
(14.0)
(14.0)
(38.0)
4.0
(34.0)
(12.0)
(12.0)
(11.0)
4.0
(7.0)
(29.4)
(29.4)
(27.7)
(27.7)
(21.2)
(21.2)
(21.5)
(21.5)
(22.3)
(22.3)
(20.5)
(20.5)
(89.0)
18.0
3.0
(68.0)
(54.0)
1.0
182.0
2.0
131.0
(77.0)
7.0
(70.0)
(80.1)
4.0
(76.1)
(85.5)
(85.5)
(3.0)
(3.0)
(191.0)
275.0
2.0
86.0
(48.0)
1.0
(47.0)
(4.0)
3.0
(1.0)
(304.0)
225.0
1.0
(78.0)
(3.0)
(3.0)
(131.0)
1.0
(130.0)
(4.0)
(4.0)
(16.0)
(16.0)
(2.0)
(34.0)
(17.5)
(14.8)
(32.3)
(17.5)
(14.8)
(32.3)
(17.5)
(14.8)
(32.3)
(17.5)
(14.8)
(32.3)
(17.5)
(14.8)
(32.3)
(17.5)
(14.8)
(32.3)
(86.0)
100.0
(12.0)
2.0
(475.0)
500.0
(1.0)
24.0
(439.0)
225.0
2.0
(212.0)
(16.0)
(35.0)
(45.7)
(6.0)
(102.7)
(70.0)
(59.3)
(129.3)
(10.0)
1.0
10.0
(4.0)
6.0
(1.0)
(15.0)
(1.0)
(3.0)
(1.0)
3.0
2.0
-
(4.0)
-
(8.0)
-
(4.0)
-
1.0
16.0
(4.0)
(9.0)
(4.0)
-
(12.0)
-
(118.0)
(22.0)
111.0
90.0
(21.0)
(64.0)
70.0
(56.0)
(33.0)
(7.0)
12.2
19.6
(0.5)
1.8
7.4
1.8
40.0
61.0
(71.0)
(96.0)
39.0
(36.0)
45.0
28.0
25.0
(31.0)
129.0
(16.0)
68.0
9.0
76.0
71.0
286.0
74.0
80.0
(21.0)
74.0
27.0
83.0
44.5
76.9
51.9
73.6
31.8
86.6
34.2
91.4
39.8
97.6
34.1
86.7
236.0
(135.0)
238.0
138.0
510.0
Meritor, Inc.
(8.2)
102.4
307.5
10.6
139.9
362.3
Page 6 of 65
9
1Q
WORKING CAPITAL MGMT
DSO
DIO
DPO
CCC
Inventory Turns
Payables Turns
Recivable Turns
LEVERAGE
Debt to Total Capital
Debt to EBITDA
Interest Coverage
Net Cash
RETURNS
ROS
ROE
ROA
ROIC
52.4
46.2
72.2
26.4
7.9
5.1
7.0
FY2013
2Q
3Q
58.1
46.7
76.3
28.5
7.8
4.8
6.3
56.8
46.3
74.9
28.2
7.9
4.9
6.4
58.4
46.1
76.2
28.3
7.9
4.8
6.3
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
261%
307%
3.8
-676
215%
243%
4.3
-596
9%
-43%
14%
17%
4%
-21%
6%
7%
5%
-26%
7%
8%
6%
-48%
10%
11%
0%
0%
0%
0.0%
2.3%
14.4%
3.3%
5.0%
4.2%
16.9%
6.2%
7.9%
5.8%
16.9%
8.5%
9.5%
6.5%
18.6%
10.4%
11.2%
CASH MANAGEMENT
CAPEX/FCF
-100% -135% -74% -40% -93% -560% 188%
FCF Yield
-15% -10% -15% -24%
-8%
-1%
3%
Dividend Yield
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Dividend (total) ($USD)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Dividend Per Share ($USD)
Share Buybacks ($USD)
-
56%
13%
0%
0.0
-
58%
50%
73%
78%
58%
61%
59%
61%
11%
12%
0%
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
16.00 14.83 14.83 14.83 14.83 14.83 14.83
N/M
0.0%
0.0%
0.00
0.00
0.00
-40.0%
-23.0%
0.0%
0.00
0.00
0.00
55.8%
15.0%
0.0%
0.00
0.00
0.00
78.2%
61.1%
0.00
0.00
45.67
0.00
0.00
59.33
Meritor, Inc.
6%
-39%
9%
10%
50.5
41.4
70.1
21.7
8.8
5.2
7.2
FY12
270%
205%
4.0
-725
6%
-37%
9%
9%
51.6
41.8
70.7
22.7
8.7
5.2
7.1
4Q
395%
462%
1.9
-820
6%
-35%
9%
9%
52.6
43.0
71.5
24.0
8.5
5.1
6.9
FY2016E
2Q
3Q
2865%
355%
3.1
-803
0%
-2%
0%
0%
55.5
44.0
74.1
25.4
8.3
4.9
6.6
1Q
196% 197% 197% 172% 171% 171% 140% 154% 154% 155% 153% 152% 149% 146% 143% 140%
3.3x
3.8x
4.0x
4.2x
3.9x
3.6x
3.7x
3.5x
3.3x
3.1x
3.0x
2.9x
2.7x
2.6x
2.4x
2.3x
1.3
1.8
0.6
4.8
2.5
1.6
13.0
-3.9
3.9
4.0
3.7
3.5
4.0
4.3
4.6
4.2
-1,986 -1,994 -1,982 -1,706 -1,713 -1,723 -1,649 -1,500 -1,512 -1,480 -1,450 -1,413 -1,396 -1,377 -1,352 -1,333
6%
-34%
9%
9%
57.3
45.4
75.6
27.1
8.0
4.8
6.4
4Q
50.3
41.3
70.3
21.2
8.8
5.2
7.3
3%
-11%
4%
5%
58.3
47.2
75.6
30.0
7.7
4.8
6.3
FY2015E
2QA
3Q
57.6
44.0
77.0
24.7
8.3
4.7
6.3
1%
-5%
2%
3%
56.4
46.5
72.9
30.0
7.9
5.0
6.5
1QA
58.6
44.3
76.7
26.1
8.2
4.8
6.2
2%
-8%
3%
5%
54.5
47.4
71.2
30.7
7.7
5.1
6.7
4QA
56.2
47.0
76.7
26.5
7.8
4.8
6.5
1%
-5%
2%
3%
54.8
47.4
72.0
30.2
7.7
5.1
6.7
FY2014A
2QA
3QA
51.8
41.7
71.4
22.1
8.8
5.1
7.0
3%
-11%
5%
7%
54.5
47.4
72.2
29.7
7.7
5.1
6.7
1QA
50.4
41.3
70.5
21.3
8.8
5.2
7.2
5%
-19%
8%
13%
54.8
47.7
73.4
29.1
7.6
5.0
6.7
4Q
6%
-44%
10%
11%
Page 7 of 66
9
COMPANY NOTE
April 29, 2015
Notes: The boxes on the Rating and Price Target History chart above indicate the date of the Research Note, the rating, and the price target. Each
box represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first Note
written during the past three years.
Legend:
I: Initiating Coverage
R: Resuming Coverage
T: Transferring Coverage
D: Discontinuing Coverage
S: Suspending Coverage
OW: Overweight
N: Neutral
UW: Underweight
NA: Not Available
UR: Under Review
Distribution of Ratings/IB Services
Piper Jaffray
IB Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating
Count
Percent
Count
Percent
BUY [OW]
378
61.17
99
26.19
HOLD [N]
226
36.57
14
6.19
14
2.27
0.00
SELL [UW]
Note: Distribution of Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies currently in each rating category from which Piper Jaffray and its affiliates
received compensation for investment banking services within the past 12 months. FINRA rules require disclosure of which ratings most closely
correspond with "buy," "hold," and "sell" recommendations. Piper Jaffray ratings are not the equivalent of buy, hold or sell, but instead represent
recommended relative weightings. Nevertheless, Overweight corresponds most closely with buy, Neutral with hold and Underweight with sell. See
Stock Rating definitions below.
Meritor, Inc.
Page 8 of 9
67
COMPANY NOTE
April 29, 2015
Research Disclosures
Piper Jaffray was making a market in the securities of Meritor, Inc. at the time this research report was published. Piper Jaffray will buy and sell
Meritor, Inc. securities on a principal basis.
Piper Jaffray research analysts receive compensation that is based, in part, on overall firm revenues, which include investment banking revenues.
Rating Definitions
Stock Ratings: Piper Jaffray ratings are indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend) within the next 12 months. At times
analysts may specify a different investment horizon or may include additional investment time horizons for specific stocks. Stock performance
is measured relative to the group of stocks covered by each analyst. Lists of the stocks covered by each are available at www.piperjaffray.com/
researchdisclosures. Stock ratings and/or stock coverage may be suspended from time to time in the event that there is no active analyst opinion
or analyst coverage, but the opinion or coverage is expected to resume. Research reports and ratings should not be relied upon as individual
investment advice. As always, an investors decision to buy or sell a security must depend on individual circumstances, including existing holdings,
time horizons and risk tolerance. Piper Jaffray sales and trading personnel may provide written or oral commentary, trade ideas, or other
information about a particular stock to clients or internal trading desks reflecting different opinions than those expressed by the research analyst.
In addition, Piper Jaffray offers technical research products that are based on different methodologies, may contradict the opinions contained in
fundamental research reports, and could impact the price of the subject security. Recommendations based on technical analysis are intended for
the professional trader, while fundamental opinions are typically suited for the longer-term institutional investor.
Overweight (OW): Anticipated to outperform relative to the median of the group of stocks covered by the analyst.
Neutral (N): Anticipated to perform in line relative to the median of the group of stocks covered by the analyst.
Underweight (UW): Anticipated to underperform relative to the median of the group of stocks covered by the analyst.
Other Important Information
The material regarding the subject company is based on data obtained from sources we deem to be reliable; it is not guaranteed as to accuracy and
does not purport to be complete. This report is solely for informational purposes and is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment
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Meritor, Inc.
Page 9 of 68
9