Binomial Distribution: Must: fixed trials, two outcomes

(success or failure), P(success)=p and P(fail)=1-p, and trials are

independent/ with replacement after each trial. CALCULATING
PROBABILITY

n!
P ( x )=
p x ( 1 p )n x ; X= 0,1,2,3
x ! ( nx ) !
=np; 2=np ( 1 p ) ; = np(1P)

10 !
0
100
P ( 0 )=
(0.2) ( 10.2 )
0 ! ( 100 ) !

Cumulative problems where it includes multiple x

values P(X<n), so what is the probability Pat will fail? That
means 4 questions or less were answered so

P ( X 4 )= p ( 0 )+ P ( 1 ) + P(4)

Using Binomial Table n=10,

P ( X k ) , thus k=4, P=0.2

Fast way to calculate

P(X=n) using table:

P ( X=2 ) =, p ( X 2 )P( X 1)
P ( X K ) =1P( X ( k 1 ))
Poisson distribution-The number of successful events that
occur in a time interval is independent of the number of
success that occurs in another time interval. It fits cases of
rare events that occur over a fixed amount of time or within a
specified region. AVERAGE MUST BE GIVEN

The probability that two or more successes will occur in an

interval approaches zero as the interval becomes smaller

e
; E ( x )= (mean)
x!
2 ( variance)
P ( x )=

Ex. Patients arrive at the emergency room of Mercy

Hospital at the average rate of 6 per hour evenings, what
is the probability of 4 arrivals in 30 minutes on a weekend
evening? Find mean and variance
u= 6/ hour 3/ 30 min then. X=4

= 2=3

Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)

The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of random variable
X is Theorem for any discrete random variable X is F(x)=P(X

Counts the number of successes in the n trials, and is

called the binomial random variable= discrete variable
Ex. Pat has quiz with 10 MC questions. Each question has
five possible answers. What is the probability that Pat gets
no answers correct?
N=10, P=1/5 (1-p)=4/5; Pat getting no answers right
P(x=0),

Ex. You first randomly sample one card from a 52-card

deck. What is the probability that two cards will be aces
out of three cards chosen?

Ex. The PMF of the number N of customers that arrive at a

station within a one-hour interval is defined by

e5 5n
P ( n )= n ! n=0,1,2, }
0

What is the probability that

at most two customers arrive at the station within one hour?

Solution: P(N 2 = P(0) + P(1) + p(2) P(

e5 50
0!
5 1
e 5
1!

5 2
e
+ + 5
2!

The PMF of the number of components K of a system that fails

is defined by P(k)=

(4k ).2 .8
k

4 k

k =0,1,2,3,4 }

(a) What

is the CDF of K? b) What is the probability that fewer than two

components of the system fail?

Solution- Formula: F(k)=P(K

4)=

e3 34
(
)
P4=
4!

.2
.8 m4
( m)()
4!

m! ( 4m ) !

Hypergeometric Distribution: the trials are not

independent, without replacement and the probability of
success changes from trial to trial.

r Nr
(
x )( nx )
f ( x )=
; 0 x r
N
(n)

F(x)= probability of x

b) Fewer than 2 is P(X<2)= P(0)+ P(1)=0.8192

CDF graphs and reading it like limits:

successes in n trails, n=# of trials, N=# of elements in

population , r= # of elements in population that labeled
success

Nn
N 1

r
r
r
E ( x )==n ; Var ( x )= 2=n( )(1 )
N
N
N

Consider a hypergeometric distribution with n trials and let

p= (r/n) denote the probability of a success on the first
trial. If the population size is large, the term (Nn)/(N
1) approaches 1. The expected value and variance can
be written E(x) = np and Var(x) = np(1 p).

1)P[Y<1]=Fy(

Corresponding PMF
=0

P(x)=
+
1
2) P[Y
=0.6
1 =Fy
3)P[Y>2]=1-P[Y 2 =1-0.8=0.2
4)P[Y 2=1P[Y <2] =1-0.6=0.4

0 x=3 , 5
0.6 x=1
0.2 x=2, 4

5)P[Y=1]= P[Y
6) P[Y=3]= P[Y

1]- P[Y<1]=0.6-0=0.6

Geometric Random Variable-The number of independent

Bernoulli trials until the first success if you repeat an
experiment and it has 2 outcomes, calculates number of trails
until you get first success. The probability of success, p,is
constant. The probability mass function, pmf, is:

1
1 p
1 p x1 p , E ( x )== ,V ( x )= 2= 2
p
p
f ( x ) =

Ex. Someone is trying to take the road test. If the

probability of passing the test is 40%, what is the
probability that this person will pass the test at second
21

shot?

10.4 0.4
f ( 2 )=

Similarities/ differences b/w Binomial & Geometric

random variable Similarities: independent trials,
probabilities of success / failure Differences: Binomial,
know how many trials in total and Geometric, dont know
it/ not of interest. Binomial, several possibilities for a
specific value of the variable, but geometric, theres one.

Poisson Approx. to the Binomial Distribution

This approximation can safely be applied if n (#of
variables)>50 and np (probability)<5... large number small
probability.
Ex. book error is 0.005 and there are 400 pages, what is the
probability that one of the pages has an error? n=400,
mean=np=2

Sol: Total words= 10; s=3 u=2 c=2, e=1, f=1, l=1

3]- P[Y<3]=0.8-0.8=0

P(1)=

e2 21
1!

Generally, Poisson Table exhibits the Cumulative distribution

function. For example, if u=2,thenP (X3)=F(3;2)=.857, where
as P(X=3)=F(3;2)F(2;2)=.180.

N=

10 !
3 !+2 !+2 !+1 !+1 !+1 !

Circular Permutation
The number of ways to arrange n distinct objects along a fixed
circle I s P n=( n1 ) ! Example: How many possible ways
8 students can be seated around a circular table? (8-1)! = 7!
a) if two students want to sit side by side? (7-1)!2! = 6!.2!
b) If two do not want to side-by-side (8-1)! -(7-1)!2! = 7!
-6!.2!
Random Variable: A random variable is a function or rule
that assigns a number to each outcome of an experiment
Discrete Random Variable one that takes on a countable
number of values (2,3). Integers are discrete
Continuous Random Variable one whose values are not
discrete, not countable E.g. The minimum value longer than
30minutes (30.,or30.,or30.000000) Real #s
Probability distributions a table, formula, or graph that
describes the values of a random variable and the probability
associated with these values can be:
1) Discrete
Random Variable0

P( X ) 1

for all x and

P ( x )=1

so it is

relative frequency, Ex. at least one television but no more than

three P(1 X 3) = P(1) + P(2) + P(3) and relative probability
is by dividing # of households/ total households
2) Continuous Random VariableProbability Distribution- There is 20% chance of closing a
sale on each call. What is the probability distribution of the
number of sales if calling three customers? DRAW TREE

Counting theory

An ordered k-tuple is an ordered collection of k

objects
Multiplication- sampling with replacement if sets A contain n
elements then there are n ways of choosing first element of A
the element A2 and so on.
Permutation sampling without replacement, the number of r
objects selected from a distinct n objects, order matters. Size
is k.

n!
Pr=
(nr )!

Ex. Each department has one representative on council.

From these seven representatives, one is chair, vicechair, and a third is secretary.
P(3,7)=7*6*5 or

Pr=

7!
(73)!

Combination sampling without replacement the number of

ways which r objects can be selected from a set of n objects,
no order

n!
(nr )= r !(nr
)!

Ex. Three balls are to be chosen without replacement

from 8 balls 2 red, 3 black, 3 green. Find the
probability that one ball is red and 2 are black?

2 3
(
1 )( 2 )
C=
(83)
Repeated permutation
The repetition of letters in a word formula is

n!
(nn1)= n1total
!+ n2 !

Ex. The word Successful how many time could we

rearrange the letters.

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

P ( AB ) ( joint probability )
P ( B ) (marginal probability )
P ( AB )
P ( A|B )=
P ( B)
P ( A|B )=

Complement of Event P(AC ) = 1 P(A)

Union of Events P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)
Intersection of Events P(A and B)= P(A | B) P(B)
Mutually Exclusive Events P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
If we multiply both sides of the equation by P(B) we have:
P(A and B) = P(A | B) P(B)
A special case: A and B are independent, then P(A and
B) = P(A) P(B)

Laws of Expected
1.E(c)=c the expected value of a constant (c) is just the value
of the constant itself.
Ex. E(x)=E(3x+1)= 3*E(x) +1
2.E (X+c)=E(X)+c
3.E (cX)=cE(X) We can pull a constant out of the expected
value expression(either as part of a sum with a random
variable X or as a coefficient of random variable X)
Example. Monthly sales have a mean of $25,000 and a
standard deviation of $4,000. Multiplying sales by 30% and
subtracting fixed costs of $6,000 calculate profits.
1)Describe the problem statement in Math:
-sales have a mean of $25,000E(Sales) = 25,000
-Profits is E(Profit) = E(.30(Sales) 6,000)
= E[.30(Sales)] 6,000
= .30E(Sales) 6,000
= .30(25,000) 6,000
= 1,500
Laws of Variance
1.V(c)=0
The variance of a constant (c) is zero.
2.V(X+c)=V(X)

The variance of a random variable and a constant is just the

variance of the random variable
3.V(cX)=c^2V(X)

The variance of a random variable and a constant coefficient is

the coefficient squared times the variance of the random
variable.