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Polonia - Dinamica macroeconomica inainte si dupa criza financiara si economica

Indicatori macroeconomici:

Anunarea ratelor dobnzilor


Indicele preturilor de consum

Indicatorii ocuprii forei de munc

Vnzarea cu amnuntul

Balana de pli

Politica guvernamental fiscal i monetar

Polonia a reusit cu success sa se integreze in Uniunea Europeana de la aderarea sa in 2004, si a fost singura atara
membra care in perioada crizei financiare mondiale din 2008-2009 a prezentat o crestere. Polonia este o ar cu
venituri ridicate, cu o economie de piaa intern mare i diversificat.

Patru moduri prin care Banca de stat a Polonia a ajuta la

evitarea recesiunii
Figure 1. Schimbarea PIB-ului real a unor tari Europene, 2007-2014 (%)

Source: authors calculations based on Eurostat. calculatiile autorului bazate pe Eurostat

Aceast performan remarcabil rezultat dintr-o serie de factori, inclusiv stimularea fiscal i monetar
n timp util, o depreciere mare a monedei i o economie intern relativ mare, ceea ce a limitat expunerea
rii la influentele negative ale comerului internaional. n plus, cre terea a fost sus inut de cresterea
intrrilor de fonduri de la Uniunea European, o structur diversificat de export, i de ncrederea
sustinuta din partea consumatorilor si a antreprenorilor polonezi.
Performanta impresionanta a Poloniei a fost, de asemenea, determinat de un sector bancar sntos.
Bncile poloneze rmn profitabile, lichide, i bine capitalizate, de-a lungul crizei.Acestea nu au nevoie
de sprijin public nici macar pentru un dolar. Spre deosebire de majoritatea celorlalte ri din UE, bncile
din Polonia au reuit s creasc creditarea sectorului privat n timpul crizei, sprijinind cre terea rii.
Un factor trecut cu vederea a fost rolul anticiclic al PKO BP - o banc public comerciala i cel mai mare
jucator pe piata din Polonia, cu o cot de pia de aproape 20 la sut care a ajutat in timpul crizei.
n timp ce bncile cu capital strin, care controlau aproape 75 la sut din activele sectorului bancar, tiau
de creditare n panic, PKO BP extindea mprumuturile n acela i timp. Portofoliul de credite a crescut cu
1,2 la sut din PIB n 2009 i a reprezentat 40 la suta din totalul mprumuturilor bancare noi n acel an.
Creditele bncii a crescut pentru toate segmentele de pia , inclusiv n sectorule esen iale a
ntreprinderilor mici i mijlocii.

Poland has become a major actor within the European Union (EU). With a population of about 38million, and a
Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of $13,360 (2014, Atlas method), Poland has the largest economy in

Central Europe. Since joining the EU in 2004, the countrys ambitions have been marked by the desire to fully catch
up with the core of the EU in terms of economic development and living standards (Gross Domestic Product per
capita currently stands at only 67% of the EU average) and to become one of the key participants in European
Polands economic growth remains robust. In the first half of 2015, the economy expanded by 3.4 percent year on
year, the same rate as in 2014 and up from 1.7 percent in 2013. Domestic demand increased by 3 percent and
remained the main growth driver. Private consumption continued to benefit from higher real disposable incomes as a
result of improved labor market conditions, relatively strong credit growth to households, and a boost from
persistent consumer price declines. Investment was supported by solid corporate profits, growing confidence, record
low interest rates, and final disbursements from the European Unions (EU) previous financial perspective (budget).
The NBPs Monetary Policy Council (MPC) maintains a relaxed monetary policy stance. The main policy
interest rate was cut in October 2014 and in March 2015 by 100 basis points altogether, and the reference rate
remains at a record low of 1.5 percent. Inflation remains well below the National Bank of Polands (NBP) 1.53.5
percent target range, affected by strong declines in food and energy prices. The headline inflation rate has been
negative since July 2014, and in August 2015, consumer prices fell by 0.6 percent compared to one year earlier.
Negative inflation in Poland is driven by low imported inflation from Eurozone trading partners and declining global
food and energy prices. Polands real effective exchange rate appears to be broadly consistent with economic
The banking sector is well capitalized, liquid, and profitable, with stable credit growth. Capital adequacy is
strong (at 14.9 percent in March 2015, 90 percent of which is Core Tier 1 capital) and liquidity is high. In 2014, the
net profit of the banking sector exceeded PLN 16.2 billion (US$4.2 billion), a historical record. However, in the first
half of 2015, net profit declined by 8.2 percent in comparison with the first half of 2014. The deleveraging of
Eurozone banks has stabilized and the fall in foreign funding was offset by rising domestic deposits. Private sector
credit grew by 7 percent in 2014, including a welcome pickup in credit to the corporate sector. In the first half of
2015, the year-on-year growth of bank credit oscillated around 7 percent.
Despite remarkable economic performance, Poland faces a number of challenges going forward. In the
medium-term, Poland needs to improve the efficiency of public finances and do more to ensure that economic
growth includes better those at the lower end of the income distribution. The country also needs to strike a balance
between labor market flexibility and worker protection, and mitigate the existing duality of the labor market. Doing
business reforms to encourage productivity and innovation remains another important reform area, especially in light
of the changing demographics and aging society. Lastly, the country needs to manage the transition towards a lowemissions economy as it faces some potentially costly policy actions.