Global Marine Safety Trends

International Maritime Safety Conference, May 2015

Dr. Spyros E. Hirdaris
Lloyds Register Asia, Technology Group, South Korea

Working together
for a safer world

Crude oil prices

Lebanon conflicts
Syria crisis!

140
120

Arab Light Crude Oil Price

Brent Crude Oil Price

Oil prices
crashed to
below USD60
per bbl.

Asian Financial Crisis

US $ per barrel

100

Iraq War

80
60

9/11
Gulf War

40

Global economic
downturn!

May-92
Dec-92
Jul-93
Feb-94
Sep-94
Apr-95
Nov-95
Jun-96
Jan-97
Aug-97
Mar-98
Oct-98
May-99
Dec-99
Jul-00
Feb-01
Sep-01
Apr-02
Nov-02
Jun-03
Jan-04
Aug-04
Mar-05
Oct-05
May-06
Dec-06
Jul-07
Feb-08
Sep-08
Apr-09
Nov-09
Jun-10
Jan-11
Aug-11
Mar-12
Oct-12
May-13
Dec-13
Jul-14

20

Japan Tsunami Earthquake

Fukushina Nuclear Disaster
March 2011

Crude oil prices Monthly averages (US$/bbl) 1992-2014YTD; CRSL; January 2015

Global Marine Safety Trends

2015-2021 : World Fleet expected to grow at annual average of 3.3%

(data presented for commercial ships > 5,000 dwt)

Forecasts

Global Marine Safety Trends

Tourism - will generally grow

Global Marine Safety Trends

Cruise and Cruise ships will grow

Cruise Ship Orders 2014 - 17
Source : CLIA -EU 2014 edition
4,393.00

3,142.00

2014

2015

2016

Year (Investment in Million Euro)

Global Marine Safety Trends

2,337.00

4 ships

7 ships

High demand on
knowledge, information,
technology management

6 ships

More Innovative / complex

ship designs

10 ships

2,836.00

2017

Accidents and statistics

Global Marine Safety Trends

Reactive regulatory response - Tanker Ship Safety evolution

Torrey
Canyon

Amoco
Cadiz
1975

1970

1980

Torrey Canyon
Development of
MARPOL 73/78

1995

1985

Amoco Cadiz
steering gear
redundancy
requirements

Sea Empress

ISM

ETA

Sea Empress
Emergency Plans and UK
standing salvage tug
scheme

Global Marine Safety Trends

2000

Coated Ballast tanks

Erika
Accelerated Single Hull Phase
Out
+ EU Ban

1990

Double Hull
Reg 13F, 13G

Exxon Valdez
mandatory double hull
for new ships and
timetable for conversion
of existing ships

Prestige

Erika

Braer

Exxon
Valdez

1995

Braer
Emergency Towing
and UK standing
salvage tug
scheme

Hebei Spirit

2005

PMA +

2010

CSR/PSPC

Prestige
Prestige
Accelerated
AcceleratedPhase
PhaseOut
Out

2025

Reactive regulatory response - Bulk Carrier Safety evolution

1965

IMSBC
+
IMDG

SOLAS XII
BLU Code

IMO BC Code

1971

1989

1997

URS1

URS11

URS1A

1998

URS17
URS20

2002

2006

URS25

CSR BC

Intermediate Generation:
Loading Instrument/Manual
includes hold mass curves

2014
2015

2011

CSR (H)

New Generation:
Includes margin for
cargo overloading events

URS1 Basic IACS Requirement for Loading Instrument/Manual

URS11 Introduction of IACS longitudinal strength standard

Pre 2000 DOB:

Old Generation

Old Generation:
Loading
Instrument/Manual
does not include hold
mass curves

Bulk Carriers: Implementation of Class Rule

amendments & implications for load ability
Global Marine Safety Trends

2000 to 2005 DOB:

Intermediate Generation

URS1A Hull girder & double bottom strength assessed

by Loading Instrument
URS17 & URS20 Hull girder & double bottom strength
assessed with hold flooding

URS25, CSR
Margin for cargo
overloading events

Post 2005 DOB:

New Generation

Safety for the Maritime environment

1970 2014 :
No. of large spills > 700 tonnes

Source : The International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation Ltd.

Global Marine Safety Trends

Ship safety the overall impact of the prevailing system

Actual and constructive total losses - all causes except war loss
(Source : Lloyds Register of Shipping World Casualty Statistics / propelled sea-going ships of not less than 100 GT)
7

25

loss rate
average age
6

Flat lining vs kick ups

Steepness smoothed out

average age

loss rate per 1000 ships at risk

20

15

10

2
5
1

Pomeroy, V. (2014). On future of ship safety people, complexity and systems, Journal
of Marine Engineering and Technology, 13(2) : 50-61.

year

Global Marine Safety Trends

Ship safety the overall impact of the prevailing system

Constructive total losses - all causes except war loss
(Source : Lloyds Register of Shipping World Casualty Statistics / propelled sea-going ships of not less than 100 GT)
2.5

25

loss rate
average age

1.5

20

cost of repair high

(scrapping levels high)

15

cost of repair low

cost of repair high

(scrapping levels high)

10

cost of repair low

(scrapping levels low)

0.5

later reported incidents will increase the loss rate

for these later years
0

0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
year

Global Marine Safety Trends

average age

loss rate per 1000 ships at risk

Causes of Total Ship Losses 2001-2014

(Source : Lloyd's List Intelligence Casualty Statistics / propelled sea-going ships of not less than 100 GT)

Vessel Collision
Fire or explosion
Machinery damage/failure
Miscalaneous

Contact (e.g. harbour walls)

Hull damage (holes or cracks)
Piracy

Foundered (e.g. sanck or submerged)

Missing
Wrecked/stranded (aground)

Wrecked/stranded
(aground), 13

Wrecked / stranded (aground)

Miscalaneous, 1
Collision, 2

Machinery damage /
failure, 3

Fire/explosion

Hull damage, 3
Fire/Explosion, 4

Foundered,
49
Foundered (sank or submerged)

Collision
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Global Marine Safety Trends

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Tankers and Bulk Carriers - fatalities decreasing

Fatalities - Tanker Accidents
70

60

Fatalities - Bulk Carriers

60
50
40

50

40

30
20
10

30

20

10

Source : Intertanko Casualty Statistics. (2001-2015)

Global Marine Safety Trends

Source : Intercargo 2012-13 Benchmarking Report

(10 year Rolling average)

Passenger Ships consequences to people

Costa Concordia peak

32 victims

51% of fatalities occurred on board cargo ships

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Cargo Ships

Fishing
Vessels

Passenger
Ships

Service Ships

2010-2011

2011-2012

2012-2013

Others

75% of fatalities were of seafarers

70
60
50

Source : European Maritime Safety Agency Statistics 2014

40
30
20
10
0

Global Marine Safety Trends

Crew

Passengers

Others

Ferries
163 accidents in 14 years & 17,000 deaths in 40 countries
Source : World wide Ferry
Safety Association

Indonesia
16%

Philippines
11%

China
6%

Bangladesh
25%

Over-crowding

Misjudgement of weather conditions

Bad stowage of cargo

Human factors
Global Marine Safety Trends

All others
42%

Geography of accidents

SE Asia

2 Eastern Med

Source : Lloyds List Intelligence Casualty Statistics .

Analysis AGCS

Global Marine Safety Trends

Overview of key risks for 2014

Overreliance to
E-Navigation
Crewing

Container ships
Natural catastrophes

Acts of war
Passenger ships
& Coastal Ferries

Bad whether

Economies of scale

Piracy

Pandemics
(Ebola)

Dangerous
cargoes
Criminalisation of
seafarers

LNG as fuel
Arctic shipping

Survivability
Human trafficking

Global Marine Safety Trends

IMO 2014 Safety trends vessel construction is not the only weak point
MSC 94 (2014)

MEPC (2014)
(2014)

Passenger Ship Safety

BCH Code

LNG and low distillate fuels Codes

IBC Code

Piracy, armed robbery and cyber security

E-navigation
Training
Goal Based Regulations

Technology trends
Human Factors
Complex Engineering Systems and Operations
Management of Big data
Emerging technologies

1990

2000

2010

Global Marine Safety Trends

2020

The shipping industry Ecosystem

Equip.
Manuf.

Politicians
Public

Unions
Media

Yards

Charterers

Academia

Class

Flags

Crew

Global Marine Safety Trends

Owners
PSC

Banks

Goal Based Standards

Goals

Tier II

Functional
Requirements

IMO GBS

Tier I

Safe and Environment-friendly Vessel

Verification
Process

Tier III
Tier IV

Prescriptive Regulations &

Class Rules

Tier V

Applicable Industry Standards &

Codes of Practice

Global Marine Safety Trends

The Future

Assurance

Education

Technology

Engineering

Regulations

Global Marine Safety Trends

Markets

Conclusions

World trading and shipping expansion will demand Safety, Environment and
Sustainability balance.

Industry self-regulation should continue and build upon operational experience.

De-risking technologies will be critical and in this process Class should be a partner
of the IMO and Industry.

Fundamental to the technology de-risking process will be
 Transparency, availability and harmonisation of big data
 Balancing of human factors with systems thinking and operational complexity

Global Marine Safety Trends

Dr. Spyros Hirdaris

Lloyds Register Asia
Technology Group, South Korea
E spyros.hirdaris@lr.org

Working together
for a safer world

Lloyds Register and variants of it are trading names of Lloyds Register Group Limited, its subsidiaries and affiliates.
Copyright Lloyds Register Asia. 2015. A member of the Lloyds Register group.