Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
MANUAL
Table of Contents
1. Introduction to Felton Trading
page 3
page 4
3. Trading Electronically
page 6
4. Trading Preparation
page 7
5. Candlesticks 101
page 8
page 10
a. Chart Features
page 11
b. Chart Indicators
page 12
c. Chart Types
page 14
page 17
page 19
page 19
b. Counter-trend Signals
page 22
i. Basic Divergence
page 22
page 25
page 27
page 29
i. Hidden Divergence
page 29
page 31
page 34
page 35
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page 38
page 40
b.
page 40
i. Sideways Cycling
page 41
page 42
page 43
page 44
page 44
page 45
page 46
page 47
page 48
page 50
page 52
page 54
page 55
page 57
page 63
page 65
page 67
page 71
page 72
page 75
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But, being a successful trader means more than just the money. As you become
proficient and your trading skills increase, prepare to grow individually as you
become more disciplined, more patient and more focused in your personal life.
Trading offers personal benefits that few other businesses can match. We are
anxious to share with you a wealth of trading knowledge and help get you on the
road to consistent and lasting trading success. Lets begin by taking a look at the
trading tools youll need.
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4. Trading Preparation
Once you execute a trade and enter the market, you have turned that trade over
to the market and you have no control whether it wins or loses. No amount of
hoping or praying will change the markets direction but you do have control over
how much it wins or loses. Thats called Trade Management.
Its important to understand that over 90% of your work is done before you
actually enter each trade. Its all part of Trade Preparation and good preparation,
both mechanically, physically and mentally is essential.
Trading preparation begins with checking your trading tools. Make sure your
chart datafeed and order execution platform are functioning properly. Since we
do not live in a perfect world, things can go wrong. Sometimes the fault lies in
your Internet Service Provider (ISP). Dropouts and disconnects can happen even
with the best of services, but it will happen much less often if you choose a
broadband (high speed) service such as cable modem or DSL. Do not trade if
you are experiencing connection difficulties or you notice the data connection is
slow. It is a good idea to test your Internet connection speed often using a free
service such as http://www.speakeasy.net/.
Your physical condition can affect your trading. If you are ill, tired or needing
sleep, do not trade. Successful trading requires a clear mind undistracted by
physical issues. Getting good regular exercise is strongly recommended to keep
you in good physical shape. Be sure to get sufficient sleep before starting your
trading day.
The most essential part of trading preparation is your mental
state. Never trade when you are upset, distracted, nervous,
fearful, anxious, impatient or do not feel well. Trading takes
supreme focus, great patience and discipline. Negative
emotions work against you and will sabotage your trading
success. Of all the emotions that traders experience, fear is
the most destructive and the hardest to control. The best
way to combat fear is by building confidence in your system
and in yourself. It takes time because confidence is only
gained through experience.
If all is well emotionally and mechanically, your next preparation step is to study
the markets you plan to trade. See what they have been doing overnight. What
you want to accomplish is to see if you can logically develop a market bias that
might complement or discourage a signal you are considering. Be sure to get a
good grasp on the markets overall health. Small, choppy sideways movement for
extended periods can suggest that you may want to wait until conditions improve
before trading that particular market.
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5. Candlesticks 101
Well be discussing several indicators but, before we do that, lets start with Price.
The term price refers to the value of a market (instrument) which can change
quite rapidly. On our chart, we use candlesticks to represent market price. You
can squeeze a lot of market information from candlesticks, which is why we use
them. Plus, they are very visual. You can tell what is going on in the market from
a quick glance several feet away. Let us take a closer look at the anatomy of a
bullish and bearish candlestick.
Figure 8- 1
Figure 8- 2
These two candle examples represent the majority of bar types you will be
seeing on your charts. The green one (Figure 8-1) is a bullish candle, meaning
the market traded upward overall during the candles time period and closed
above the price that it opened. Whenever the market trades or closes above the
open, the wide part (or body) of the candle will automatically be colored green,
blue or any other color of the traders choosing to represent bullish up candles.
We look for bullish colored candles when we are ready to place a buy order to go
long in the market.
The other candle (Figure 8-2) shows a red down market candle. It means the
market was bearish because the market traded and closed below the market
open and the body will automatically be colored the default red color. We look for
bearish colored candles when we are ready to place a sell order to go short in
the market.
Another thing you will be paying close attention to are the candles wicks and
tails which are the thinner lines that protrude from the tops and bottoms of the
candle body. These tell us if the market actually traded outside of the range of
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the candle body. For signal purposes, we always want to consider the total
trading range of the candle instead of just the open and close.
At a glance we can see exactly how high the market traded and precisely how
low. Whenever a red or green candle forms a long wick, it means sellers are
entering the market and may cause the market to come down. A long tail on red
or green candles can mean buyers are coming in and the market may go up.
There is one other candlestick variation called a doji. Doji is Japanese for
same thing or same price. That is a perfect name for them because they form
when the market opens and closes at the same price for any given candle. If
there is no difference between the open and the close, there is no candle body
and, thus, no color. Doji formations can be a dash (-) or a tee (T) that can be right
side up or upside down. Dojis may also be in the form of a cross. The tees and
crosses indicate that the market actually did move up, down or both, but ended
up closing at the same price it opened. Doji clusters in the market often indicate
low volume and lack of supply or demand.
Note that some chart types such as the Line Break and the Renko (Figure 9-1)
cannot close in a doji formation due to the way the price bars are structured.
Figure 9-1: Example of a Renko chart: These Price Bars can have wicks and tails but
cannot form doji type bars at the close of any bar.
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Figure 10-1
Figure 10-1 is a chart example of the Crude Oil futures market shown by the
symbol CL at the A orange arrow. It is a chart type called the Line Break. There
are lots of ways to look at markets depending on the chart type you use. Well
discuss those in this section. If you look closely at the small wicks at the top
and bottom of the red and blue price bars, you will quickly see why they call
these candlestick charts. The bars resemble candles. Candlestick charting was
actually invented over 500 years ago in Japan where it was used to chart the
trading of commodities, such as rice. This particular chart (produced by
NinjaTrader) shows the many common chart features you will have on your
trading charts plus many of the indicators that you will probably use.
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Lets study each feature and indicator individually noted by the large white letters
A through U with the corresponding orange arrows:
Chart Features
(A) The A arrow shows the instrument (market) that you are trading. There are
numerous markets to trade including stocks, commodities, etc. At Felton
Trading, we choose to trade the futures markets which generally offer the
highest profit potential with less risk in a shorter period of time. The
instruments we trade include the E-mini markets such as the ES (S&P 500),
the YM (DOW) and the NQ (NASDAQ). We also like trading the currency
futures such as the 6E (Euro), 6J (Yen), 6B (British Pound) and the 6A
(Australian dollar). Other excellent commodities include the CL (Light Sweet
Crude Oil) and GC (Gold futures).
(B) At the top of this chart example, the B arrow shows the type of chart we are
using. Although this chart is looking at a Line Break chart, we could also
choose to study the market with a time-based chart such as the 1-minute, 5minute, 30-minute, etc. or we might want to use a Tick chart which measures
the number of transactions that have occurred in a bars formation. There is
also the Range chart, the Volume chart and the Renko chart just to name a
few. We recommend that the trader become familiar with the various chart
types to see which ones they personally prefer using. The Felton Trading
method works on any chart type or timeframe.
(C) At arrow C we have the many various trading tools offered by the
NinjaTrader charting platform including line drawing tools, crosshair selection,
Zoom in/out, bar type selection, etc. If you arent already familiar with
NinjaTraders tools, you will need to take advantage of their extensive training
aids and learn what each is for and their usage.
(D) This arrow indicates when a trade potential exists for entering the market. It is
a warning only indication and is not intended to show whether any particular
signal is better than another. Thats covered thoroughly in your Live Training
sessions.
(E) This arrow shows the Order Execution platform that NinjaTrader provides
users to trade right on the chart. Here you can enter Buy and Sell orders in
the form of Market or Limit orders as well as program the platform to
automatically enter your profit targets and your protective stops at the instant
you enter a trade.
(F) Arrow F shows the Price Scale. This scale shows the current market price
(green highlighted 98.98) as well as other measured values such as Cycle
and Large Channel values.
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(G) This is the Bar Counter that shows how many ticks are left in the current
count. Bar Counters can also be used on non-tick based charts to measure
time seconds, for instance.
(H) This is the Counter Bar which is related to the Bar Counter. It shows how
much time or ticks are left. It can also show the information as a percentage.
(I) This is a confirmed trade signal. That means that the signal completed its
formation and closed with the Bar Counter changing from gray to yellow and
counted down to zero with the counter numbers remaining yellow.
(J) This is an unconfirmed trade signal. That means that the trader should wait
until confirmation occurs with the bar completing its formation and closing.
With this chart type, the bar cannot close until the Bar Counter changes from
gray to yellow and counts down to zero.
(K) Arrow K is the Indicator scale which shows the measurement of an
indicator (such as an oscillator) relative to the mid (zero) line.
(L) This arrow shows the Time Line indicating the precise time of the current
market activity as well as the exact closing time of each historical Price Bar to
the second when the crosshair tool is placed on any bar. Using the Time Line,
Price Scale and Price Bars (candles) you have an exact record of everything
taking place in any given market for as far back as you have data.
Chart Indicators
(M) Arrows M point to our FT Large Channel. Notice the top line is red and the
bottom line is green. This indicates that we are okay to enter both long or
short positions if they meet our additional filtering requirements. These colors
can change to green/green, for instance, which would tell us to avoid taking
any short positions until the lines return to red/green or, better yet, to red/red.
Yellow/yellow lines indicate a market too choppy to trade.
(N) N arrow is the top supply line of the indicator we call the FT Small Trend
Channel constructed by plotting a pair of trendlines. Its purpose is not to try
to define the overall longer term Price direction. Instead, it tries to give an
early indication of a market change of direction from downward to upward, for
instance. It can also help provide small profit targets for scalping trades.
(O) O arrow is the bottom support line of the indicator we call the FT Small
Trend Channel. It is the counterpart to the N line. It can help provide small
profit targets for scalping trades.
(P) This arrow shows the FT Bands indicator used to detect changes in price
direction as the color changes from Red (bearish) to Blue (bullish).
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(Q) The Q arrow points to the wavy red, blue, pink, white and yellow line we call
the FT Cycle. Its actually an indicator called a Stochastic. Stochastics are
part of a large family of indicators used in Technical Analysis. We use the FT
Cycle indicator to tell us when price direction is strong or weakening as well
as to confirm when a retracement has confirmed.
(R) Arrow R shows another indicator that we use shown with the gold and
white wavy line at the bottom of the chart called the FT Trigger. It is built
using an oscillator called the MACD. The MACD is an acronym for Moving
Average Convergence Divergence. Many good trading methods utilize a
MACD in one way or another. The Felton Trading method incorporates a
powerful set of parameters that, when applied to our FT Cycle and Price,
often produces a very consistent and accurate signal result using Divergence.
(S) This indicator is called the FT Momentum - often referred to as momentum
change.
We use this indicator to help indicate market directional
strength/weakness, market directional change and to help filter certain signal
types.
(T) The T arrow points to the FT TrendMA indicator. This is a very versatile
indicator that can show several types of Moving Averages with unlimited
parameter settings. We use the FT TrendMA to help filter signals by helping
to define early stages of a market trend.
(U) The three U arrows point to some thin horizontal lines we call the FT MM
Lines. They are actually lines taken from a trading system called Murrey
Math. Note that there are several of these multi-colored lines on this chart.
Although we find the Murrey lines to be useful as potential Support and
Resistance (S&R) levels (discussed later in this manual), we find the rest of
the Murrey Math system to be complicated and quite ineffective. There are
other types of S&R levels that can be determined using indicators called Pivot
Points and another called Fibonacci Retracement but these are just three
examples of the many ways S&R levels can be found.
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Chart Types
For many years, time-based charts were pretty much what all technical analysis
chartists used. Like their name suggests, the bars open and close according to
some measure of time such as a minute, 3-minutes, 5-minutes, etc. but they can
also be measured in days, weeks or even years.
The Time-Based Charts Figure 14-1 is an example of a
1-minute chart of the S&P 500
E-mini. Each red and blue bar
begins its formation in sync with
your precise computer clock. As
each new minute begins, so does
a new bar. It might be a blue up
bar or it could be a red down bar.
The bar will rise and fall according
to the market activity. When the
minute ends, so does the price
bar as it instantly closes at
whatever price it was at and a
new bar is born. On and on it
goes throughout the trading day.
Figure 14-1
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number of timeframe choices. If a 100 Tick Chart is chosen, for instance, then
exactly 100 individual transactions will take place before a new bar is
startedand so on. Tick charts can provide a wealth of information about the
details of the trading activity, but it can also create a lot of noise.
The Line Break Chart
Traders are always looking for
ways to recognize market
direction and market trends.
Figure 15-1 is an example of
a chart type called the Line
Break. Its a little bit more
sophisticated than the two
previous examples but its
also very useful in pointing out
market trends. This chart
example shows a 3 Line
Break chart of the Euro dollar
(6E symbol) with candlestick
type price bars. Most Line
Break charts dont show the
wicks and tails but ours does
because they help the trader Figure 15-1
and are essential for backtesting. The 3 Line Break is probably the most popular,
but we could choose any other number such as a 2, 4 or 5 Line Break. You might
also notice that this is a 150 tick chart of a 3 Line Break. What do all those
numbers mean? The explanation is actually fairly simple.
In one respect, this chart type is similar to a Tick Chart in that it is counting the
number of transactions taking place and when the pre-determined number (150
in this case) is reached, a new bar would normally start. That would be the case
on a 3 Line Break chart but only if the current bar had exceeded the range
(either the highest point or lowest point) of the preceding 3 price bars excluding
the wicks and tails. Only the colored bodies of the bars are considered. If the
3-bar range low is exceeded, even by one tick, a red candlestick can close and a
new bar can start. Conversely, if the 3-bar range high is exceeded by any
amount, a blue bar is then closed and a new bar beginsbut only if the tick
count has been reached!
In other words, before a red or blue candle can close and a new bar begin, two
important conditions must be met: (1) the transaction tick amount must have
been met (150 in this example) and, (2) the top or bottom range of the preceding
3-bar bodies must be exceeded. These two conditions must be met at the same
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time or the bar cannot close. In addition to counting ticks, Line Break charts can
be set to count minutes, seconds, volume, etc.
The Renko Chart
Here in Figure 16-1 we have a chart type called the Renko in Crude Oil (CL).
More specifically, this is a 5 Renko chart. Lets examine this useful type of chart
and find out more about it.
Figure 16-1
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On a FTSupremeOHLC chart, in order for Price the change direction (bar color)
the market must travel twice the tick number setting measured from the close of
the previous bar. With our tick number setting at 5 in this example, a turning
bars target distance must then be 10 ticks every time Price changes from a
down to up bar or vice versa.
Renko charts give us a way to detect Price trends that is superior to time-based
or regular tick charts. They also allow us to know ahead of time the exact price
that any current active bar will close. When trading, this is a big advantage.
There are several other types of charts that you can research to find out what
they offer the trader. These include the Range, Kagi, Point and Figure, and the
Volume Chart just to name a few.
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Humans can see things easily that even the most elaborate and sophisticated
code will miss.
To trade successfully, it is your choice of weapons and how you use those
weapons that matter. You may have seen the popular cartoon with a Roman
General about to lead his army into a great battle against a large enemy army
with swords and arrows. The General is very irritated by a pesky salesman trying
to sell his wares. The Roman General curtly says he does not have time to talk to
the salesman, that he has a war to fight and quickly dismisses him. Too bad, the
salesman was selling machine guns! The point is, to win consistently as a trader,
you must have an edge. That means that you must stop doing what everybody
else does and find a unique weapon (method) that allows you to see signal
entries that most others do not.
Be aware that there is a big difference between a trading method and a trading
system. A Trading System generally refers to a codes software that greatly
assists the trader by taking over much of the tedious dog work of measuring,
calculating, identifying market entries and crunching data. Thats best left to the
computer. Skilled humans, on the other hand, are best at Trade Management.
So we believe in utilizing the best of both worlds by letting computers and
humans do what they each do best.
No trading system or method in the world will make anyone a dime without a
trained, experienced and skilled trader behind it pushing the buttons. Once you
understand that statement and accept it as logical and true, youll stop looking for
the holy grail system and that ultimate indicator and start to get on the right
track to finding the trading success you are looking for.
We have found that, for training purposes, a manual alone is not sufficient to
make someone a successful trader. Misunderstandings can easily occur, and
they can be difficult to correct in the students mind. You will learn more by
watching and doing than you ever will by reading. Therefore, we will not attempt
to go into great method detail in this manual, but will familiarize you with the
basic method concepts. The actual method details will be covered in extreme
detail in the online training, live market trading, as well as other learning aids we
provide that will make your understanding of the Felton Trading method crystal
clear over time.
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highlight) it and we want to find which price candle reached the lowest price
including the price bar tails in this 5 bar group.
In this example, the corresponding candle to the FT Cycle low (C) is the Zero
Candle because its tail reached a lower price than any of the preceding 4 bars
did.
Now that we have identified the corresponding price bar, we simply follow it
straight down to the FT Trigger to see where it intersects. It may intersect the FT
Trigger as it slopes down, slopes up or reaches a low or even possibly a high. It
will intersect it somewhere. From this intersecting point, we can look forward up
to 3 bars and we can look backward up to 3 bars only. This gives us a 7 bar
range and our job is to find the location of the lowest point that the FT Trigger
reached. Here, we see that the FT Triggers lowest point was at the intersecting
point shown with the red arrow and the cyan dot marked E. It is often the case
where all three corresponding points C, D and E line up exactly. Now lets look
at another set of corresponding points where they do not line up.
Figure 20-1
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preceding it and we want to find which price candle reached the highest price
including the price bar wicks in this 5 bar group.
Notice that an untrained trader would probably mistake the Price high at F to be
the corresponding high and this would be incorrect. We cannot consider any
price bars that occur after the FT Cycle reaches its peak. These price bars are
considered to be noise and are ignored except for the purposed of measuring
volatility.
In this example, once again the corresponding candle to the FT Cycle high (C)
is the Zero Candle because its tail reached a higher price than any of the
preceding 4 bars did.
Now that we have identified the corresponding price bar, we simply follow it
straight down to the FT Trigger to see where it intersects. It may intersect the FT
Trigger as it slopes down, slopes up or reaches a low or even possibly a high. In
this example, it intersects the FT Trigger at an up slope. From this intersecting
point, we can look forward up to 3 bars and we can look backward up to 3 bars
only. This gives us a 7 bar range and our job is to find the location of the highest
point that the FT Trigger reached. Here, we see that the FT Triggers highest
point was at the red dot marked E.
We have identified the 3 corresponding points in the FT Cycle (C), FT Trigger (E)
and Price (D) but they did not all form in a straight line.
So, whats the purpose of this exercise? Well, as we just saw in Figure 19-1, the
actual corresponding Price high to the FT Cycle was not where we might think it
is. If we are looking for a technical double top, we might be mislead into
thinking that the second price high did not reach within 20% of the first high
when, at the true corresponding price high, it actually did. In order to code a
signal into a software program, you must be able to tell the code exactly what
you mean by a double top or bottom and be able to teach it how to find the six (6)
corresponding points in a Basic or Extended Divergence signal.
In Figure 20-1, you can see the green dots in Price and the cyan dots in the FT
Cycle and FT Trigger that Divergence Pro identified. When we draw the blue
lines G, H and I, we see that this is not a Basic Divergence long (Buy) signal and
well find out why next.
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called a lower low price formation. (3) The two price lows can be skewed
upward from left to right with B being slightly higher than A. This is called a
technical double bottom. It is required that price must be within 20% tolerance
of the distance from A to the highest price high in the middle between A and B.
Whether equal, lower low or technical, it is immaterial since all three formations
are still a double bottom.
With our double bottom requirement met, let us find the necessary oscillator
divergence of the FT Trigger and the FT Cycle indicators. Look at the red line
connecting the two lows of the Gold and White FT Trigger (MACD). Notice the
second corresponding low at point D is higher than the first low of the FT Trigger
at point C. This must occur or there cannot be a Buy signal.
Finally, look at the blue line connecting the two corresponding lows of the multicolored FT Cycle indicator at points E and F. They must do what the FT Trigger
did. That is, the second low (F) must be higher by any amount than the first low
(E). All corresponding indicator lows have the required divergence and we have a
Buy signal to go long.
The entry to a Basic Divergence long signal is taken when the FT Trigger first
turns up to complete its double bottom formation at the second low and the
corresponding price bar is the correct up color. In this example, the price up bar
is blue and the entry trigger candle is noted with a green up arrow and yellow
BD (Basic Divergence) label.
The powerful software program called Divergence Pro will identify all of these
low points for you automatically with small red and cyan dots in Price, FT Cycle
and FT Trigger and will warn you that a signal is imminent.
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When we get one of these Buy or Sell signal formations, we do not necessarily
act on it and enter the market. It simply gives us something to consider for its
profit potential. But, before we would actually enter the market, there are a few
more things we would like to see. We will discuss other dynamics later in this
manual and in the E-course training.
Extended Divergence Long Let us take the divergence of the FT Cycle and the FT Trigger one step further
and look at some often powerful formations we call Extended Divergence
signals. If you understand the three things we look for in our basic divergence
signals previously discussed, then extended divergence will be a snap. Extended
Divergence simply means that we look at more data between two major lows or
highs of the FT Cycle and FT Trigger. We ignore less significant indicator lows or
highs in between the two larger outside ones...thus we are extending the
divergence formation over a larger amount of data. These are structured similar
to the Buy and Sell signals previously shown, only bigger.
Look at Figure 25-1 to see what an Extended
Divergence Buy signal would look like.
We have drawn in the red, blue and black
lines of our Extended Divergence (Buy)
signal here and alphabetically labeled the
corresponding points. Notice the obvious
structural similarities to the basic divergence
Buy signal discussed previously. Here, the
price, FT Cycle and FT Trigger lows are
spread out over a longer time frame. Some of
these Extended Divergence signals can take
over an hour to form on a 1-minute chart.
Note that in between the FT Cycle lows
labeled E and F, there were three smaller,
less significant lows.
We ignore these since they are not part of the
signal. It is important, however, that the
outer lows of the FT Cycle (E and F) be of
significant size. Usually they will be
noticeably larger than the inner FT Cycle
lows like we see in this example.
Figure 25-1
Signal formational strength can also be enhanced if Price and FT Trigger both
have large significant corresponding lows.
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Extended Divergence Short Now, let us take a look at an Extended Divergence (Sell) signal in Figure 26-1.
Notice that we are using the significant FT Cycle highs E and F and not the
smaller ones in between.
The
FT
Trigger
made
great
corresponding highs at points labeled
C and D. F had to be lower than E,
and D had to be lower than C
(which they were) to make the bearish
divergence signal. Remember, price
does not have to make an exact
double top (or double bottom).
Technical tops and bottoms are OK.
Higher highs (B higher than A by any
amount) is fine and most often
preferred.
Divergence, along with Extended
Divergence, is a powerful trading tool
we often use, but it is by no means
the only thing we would need to enter
a market trade.
Figure 26-1
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Figure 27-1
Turn Signals are best found on a Line Break type chart. A 3 Line Break setting
works well. Here, we are using a 300 tick 3 Line Break setting but we could use
other settings too, including volume or any time-based selection as long as it
shows good clear trading condition according to the Four Market Conditions we
will be discussing later.
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In Figure 27-1, we have a Turn Signal (TS) long (blue arrow) and a Turn Signal
(TS) short (red arrow). Their structures are identical, only reversed.
Let us start with the Turn Signal long (Buy) at about 9:30am on the Time Line.
Its formation requires three things to occur simultaneously with the FT Cycle, FT
Bands and Price. In order for a Turn Signal long to trigger, the FT Cycle must be
turning up and be blue in color indicating it is strongly bullish. We can see that
this condition has been met with the orange arrow marked A.
Next, we must have the FT Bands indicator color to be blue indicating that Price
has now shifted from bearish (red) to bullish. Arrow B shows this condition to be
correct.
The third component necessary for a Turn Signal long is to have a blue bullish
bar in Price which is seen to be correct at arrow C.
We see that Divergence Pro has identified all three conditions to be correct
and it places the small green up arrow with the yellow TS label in plenty of time
for the trader to spot the opportunity to enter the trade and take profit.
The Sell (short) version of the Turn Signal is just the opposite in formation. At
about 9:02am on the Time Line, we have a Turn Signal (TS) short indicated with
the larger red arrow. Its formation also requires three things to occur
simultaneously with the FT Cycle, FT Bands and Price.
In order for a Turn Signal short to trigger, the FT Cycle must be turning down and
be red in color indicating it is strongly bearish. We can see that this condition
has been met with the orange arrow marked D.
Next, we must have the FT Bands indicator color to be red indicating that Price
has now shifted from bullish (blue) to bearish. Arrow E shows this condition to be
correct.
The third component necessary for a Turn Signal long is to have a red bearish
bar in Price which is seen to be correct at arrow F.
We see that Divergence Pro has identified all three conditions to be correct
and it placed the small red down arrow with the yellow TS (Turn Signal) label in
plenty of time for the trader to spot the opportunity to enter the trade and take
profit going short.
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Figure 29-1
Figure 29-1 shows an uptrend in Crude Oil futures (symbol CL) showing Price
making its typical higher highs and higher lows as it continues to climb. When
Price makes a higher low, notice that the FT Cycle usually does also. The FT
Cycle wants to mimic what Price does. Now notice that price made a normal
higher low at point B compared to A. Since price came nowhere near forming a
double bottom, we would suspect a possible market entry here on Basic
Divergence. However, notice that point D on the FT Cycle went lower than point
C. At the corresponding points, Price lows went higher while the FT Cycle lows
went lower and thats divergence by definition. This is a with trend formation
called Hidden or Reverse Divergence indicating that the uptrend is likely to
continue for additional profit.
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Figure 30-1
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Figure 30-1 shows a downtrend in the Euro dollar (symbol 6E). Price makes a
bullish pullback and peaks at point A. A little later, another bullish price pullback
and peaks at point marked B. Typical of downtrends, notice that price is stairstepping downward as these peaks are consecutively making lower highs from
one high to the next. In other words, B follows A and B is lower in price than A.
Since price came nowhere near forming a double top, we would not normally
suspect a possible market entry here.
Notice that point D on the FT Cycle went higher than point C. At the
corresponding points, Price highs went lower (orange down arrow) while the FT
Cycle highs went higher (orange up arrow) thats divergence by definition.
Hidden Divergence are with trend formations indicating that, in this example,
the downtrend is likely to continue for additional profit. Divergence Pro finds
the formation for you and, with warning, identifies the entry trigger bar with the
red down arrow and yellow HD label.
In a Lump Trade signal, three main structural conditions must be met. Since
Lump Trades are with-trend signals we need to establish that a trend is either
established or at least beginning to form. In Figure 31-1, an uptrend is beginning
to form with a confirmed higher high and a strong probability of a higher low in
Price. Lump Trades actually attempt to test the strength of a price pullback
(retracement) using the FT Momentum indicator. But, before we can test a
pullback, we must first define it. For a Lump Trade pullback to occur, we need
both Price and the FT Cycle to both confirm that indeed a pullback did happen.
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In this example, we see that Price formed a series of red bars shown at arrow A.
The minimum number of bars required to define a pullback is one (1) but there is
no set maximum number. To re-confirm that a pullback took place, we also need
the FT Cycle to have turned down, in this example, by at least one bar which it
did as shown by arrow B.
Now we need to gauge how strong (or weak) the pullback actually was and we
do that by looking at the FT Momentum indicator. At arrow C we can see that,
although the FT Momentum indicator swung downward with a series of pink/red
bars, it did not go below the Zero Line shown with arrow D. If Price had gone
below the Zero Line, it would have indicated that the Sellers (Bears) were strong
at this point and we would not have a potential for a Lump Trade to go long
(Buy).
Since Price stayed above the Zero Line, we can enter the Lump Trade at the
close of the first blue (up) bar at arrow E that forms when the FT Trigger turns up
(arrow G). There is a secondary entry that can be taken by waiting for the FT
Cycle and FT Bands to confirm the bullish (up) direction if that dual condition
occurs no later than the next bar after the standard entry bar. This entry will
sacrifice some profit potential (slippage) in the hopes of gaining some accuracy.
At arrow H, we see that Divergence Pro has successfully found the entry bar
and placed a small green up arrow with the yellow LP label signifying a LumP
Trade signal to go long in the market. Additionally, in this example, Divergence
Pro has employed some of its tremendous signal filtering power by requiring
all Lump Trades to not cross their respective FT Large Channel midline as shown
here with arrow F.
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The Lump Trade (short) Figure 33-1 shows an example of a Lump Trade signal to go short in the E-mini
Crude Oil market. Notice that all of the necessary formation requirements
described in the previous example are met, only in reverse.
Figure 33-1
Both Price and the FT Cycle confirm that a bullish pullback occurred (arrow A)
once the market started a down trend with established lower highs and lower
lows showing in Price. Arrow B confirms that the FT Momentum indicator was
unable to rise above the Zero Line. We enter at the close of the first red candle
immediately following when the FT Trigger turns down, shown at arrow C.
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At arrow D, Divergence Pro finds the correct entry point and places the small
red down arrow and the yellow LP label. Notice that the FT Large Channel filter
was active in this example and that the entry bar did not cross the gray dotted
midline. Although not a required filter, it can offer increased accuracy and profit
potential to Lump Trade signals.
The Break Out Signal (long) Break Out (BO) signals are pretty much what their name implies. Price
establishes a trend direction or bias then starts to reverse but only manages to
form weak pullback noise and then breaks out of the weak reversal effort to
resume the initial trend. Figure 34-1 shows three good bullish examples of the
Break Out signal in Crude Oil futures (CL) on a 233 Tick 3 Line Break chart.
When trading Break Out signals, it is best to use a Line Break chart.
In this example, we see
Price making those higher
highs and higher lows
typical of an uptrend. Price
peaks at the blue (up) bars
shown with arrows B
before starting a small
pullback shown with the
arrows A.
For a good Break Out
signal, we want these
pullbacks to be of short
duration. On a Line Break
chart, we want them to be
no more than two bars.
Once the small pullback
ends, then a single blue
(up) bar will completely
exceed the range of the
preceding three bars and
break out to begin the
formation of a new higher
high. The FT Trigger is
shown but actually plays no
part in the Break Out signal
formation.
Figure 34-1
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Divergence Pro finds each of these three BO examples and places a small
green up bar and the yellow BO label on each entry (trigger) bar.
The Break Out Island Bar Signal (long) -
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Arrow D shows the trigger bar for entering the slingshot whether you choose
the Green dotted line or the trigger bar close. Divergence Pro places the
green (up) arrow and the Yellow IB label to denote this is an Island Bar type
Break Out.
The Break Out Island Bar Signal (short) -
Here in Figure 36-1 we simply reverse the structure and we get the Break Out
Island Bar short. We call it that because the lone blue bar at arrow B is
surrounded by red bars...stranded, if you will, like a castaway on a deserted
island.
These Island Bar trades are best
taken as with-trend signals and here
we see the downtrend established in
Oil futures (CL) on a 233 tick 3 Line
Break chart. Price peaks at the red
(down) bar at arrow A before
starting the single blue (up) pullback
bar at arrow B.
Arrow C shows that the pullback did
not continue upward as Price began
climbing its way back down to close
at a new price low. Bars A, B and C
form the slingshot with the lone
blue bar being the handle.
Notice the small dotted red line at
the body low (close) of the first red
bar (at arrow A). This offers an
entry target price where we might
place a Limit Order to enter long in
the market.
Generally, if Price
manages to climb all the way back
down to that level, there is a good
chance the bar will close red. Since
every red (down) bar in a Line Break
Figure 36-1
chart must close lower than the
(body) high of the last three bars, we will get a good entry fill by entering at the
dotted red line if price goes through the Limit Order and closes red.
Arrow D shows the trigger bar for entering the Island Bar Break Out whether you
choose the red dotted line or the trigger bar close. Divergence Pro places the
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red (down) arrow and the Yellow IB label to denote this is an Island Bar type
Break Out signal.
Island Bar (IB) Break Out signals can also occur on the Better Renko charts.
Here in Figure 37-1, we see two examples of IBsone short at yellow oval A
and one long at yellow oval B.
Figure 37-1
IB signals on a Better Renko chart usually have flat body tops on longs and flat
body bottoms on shorts, as we can see in these two IB examples. Theres no Y
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formation like there is in the Line Break charts so we do not nickname these to
be slingshots.
Notice the small arrow and yellow label entries that were found automatically for
us in Divergence Pro.
Figure 38-1
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When Stub Signals form, by not being able to make a 2 nd low, this offers
evidence that there is bullish market pressure exerting itself. It is so strong that
the FT Cycle is prevented from making its 2nd low. Logically, it follows that, if
strong market forces are exerting pressure upward, Price should then go up.
This is precisely what happens as Divergence Pro identifies the proper entry
point and places the small green up arrow and yellow ST (Stub) label for us at
arrow C.
Figure 39-1
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itself downward. It is so strong that the FT Cycle is prevented from making its 2 nd
high. Logically, it follows that, if strong market forces are exerting pressure
downward, Price should then go down.
This is precisely what happens as Divergence Pro identifies the proper entry
point and places the small red down arrow and yellow ST (Stub) label for us at
arrow D.
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Sideways Cycling -
This condition is characterized by good up and down ocean wave Price action
with little to no actual trend bias direction. Sideways Cycling market condition is
the only one that can be traded totally bi-directionally with little additional
consideration. Go long or short as your signals and filters dictate.
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Trending Cycling
Trending Cyclical can also be traded bi-directionally, long or short, but extra care
should be exercised when trading counter to the trend direction. Pay attention to
your entry in relation to the position in the FT Large Channel. If going countertrend, entry should ideally be in the lower half of the channel and small profit
targets would usually be desired.
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Trending Congested
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Sideways Congested
The FT Signal Filters Trade signals produced by the Felton Trading Method (or by Divergence
Pro) are not meant to automatically be taken, no questions asked. They are
entry suggestions and should only be taken if they meet our additional filter
requirements. Good signal filtering is essential. With each new version,
Divergence Pro is taking on more and more of the filtering duties but there are
just some things that computers and code cant see while humans easily can.
So let us go over our filter arsenal and discuss each one and how we use it.
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Figure 45-1 shows the smooth cycling turns (arrow B) and tight trend pullback
(arrow A) conditions of the FT Bands. The FT Bands appear as a red and blue
sheath which envelops the price bars providing a background color to identify
the bearish or bullish nature of the market at any given time.
Figure 45-1
The FT Bands act as a signal filter in a couple of ways. In a good cycling market,
the FT Bands help us identify when Price turns are likely to be occurring shown
in the arrows B area, and also help identify good with-trend entry points in
highly directional congested markets as seen in the arrows A area.
Using the FT Bands along with FT Momentum and FT Cycle gives us excellent
confirmation that a Price high or low has occurred. This can greatly enhance the
accuracy when a signal triggers in the new Price direction.
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Using the FT Momentum Indicator Figure 46-1 is the indicator filter we call the FT Momentum shown in arrow A.
Notice how its a histogram made up of basically two colorsred and bluebut
with three varying shades of each from light to dark. This is designed to show
varying degrees of strength or weakness in Price momentum. We sometimes
refer to the FT Momentum indicator as momentum change.
Figure 46-1
Any shade of red colored bars in the FT Momentum indicates bearishness in the
market and Price is usually going lower. Any shade of blue indicates bullishness
and Price usually rises. So, we want any signal to go long in the market to
trigger on some shade of blue in the FT momentum as shown with arrow C.
Arrow B shows Price reacting to two short signals and the corresponding shade
of red in the FT Momentum. The darkest shades of red or blue indicate areas of
strength in the bullish or bearish nature of Price at that time.
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Figure 47-1
The FT Cycle is the multi-colored rising and falling line seen here in Figure 47-1.
The purpose of the changing colors is to indicate where bullish and bearish Price
action might be weakening or gaining strength.
Weve already seen how the FT Cycle produces a divergence signal relative to
Price as seen here at the diverging purple lines (arrows G). Now notice at arrow
A that the FT Cycle is blue. Thats the strongest color indication that Price is
bullish. Now, at arrow B, we see the oscillator turn green indicating that the
buyers are weakening. Then, at arrow C we see the color turn to white which is
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the weakest color for bullish market direction and indicates that a market turn
may be imminent. If we were long on the bullish Turn Signal, we might very well
be looking for an exit on the trade if we were scalping the turns.
Arrows D, E and F show just the opposite when Price is falling with red being the
strongest color for the bears (sellers), pink showing weakness coming in and
yellow indicating a bullish turn is likely soon.
The FT Cycle is a very useful indicator for finding divergences, indicating market
strength/weakness and for helping to confirm Price highs and lows (turns).
Using the FT MM Lines All robust trading methods incorporate some form(s) of Support and Resistance
(S&R) in order to enhance a trades potential to make a profit or to indicate
trouble ahead (and to avoid entry). In addition to trend lines and channels, the
Felton Trading system uses an indicator called FT MM Lines for finding S&R
levels.
Figure 48-1
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In Figure 48-1, we can see by arrows A that we have three (3) FT MM lines
shown as blue, cyan and magenta. There are actually an infinite number of these
lines possible since they are updated every hour. The MM is an acronym for
Murrey Math. Although we do not endorse the actual Murrey Math system of
trading due to its complexity and rampant subjectivity, we find that the MM lines
used are actually quite useful and seem to work better than other techniques
such as Pivot Points and Fibonacci Retracement. In actual Murrey Math, the MM
lines are labeled 0/8, 1/8, 2/8 on to 8/8 but we find this labeling to be
unnecessary. One MM level is just as useful as another in our studies of MM
lines.
Lets follow Price as it moves in relation to these FT MM lines. At arrows B, we
see that the previous bullish price movement was halted twice as it hit the blue
line. Price saw this MM level as resistance and headed downward in stair
stepping fashion as it headed for the cyan MM line.
Arrow C shows that Price actually pushed through the cyan line a bit rather than
stopping right on it. This is normal since the MM lines are not perfect predictors
of where Price will stop. No indicator can do that. But they are generally quite
close and that is sufficient for our purposes. As Price heads from one MM line to
another, it often produces some pullbacks which result in a signal. Arrow D
shows where Divergence Pro found a HD short to send Price back on its way
to the cyan MM line.
A common phenomena that we often see when Price is in a strong trend (such
as the downtrend here in this example) is what we call the MM kiss. In Figure
48-1, Price comes back down through the cyan line and halts at the bold
magenta BD long (arrow F) then heads up for a bit to kiss the cyan MM line
goodbye, so to speak seen at arrow E. Then, as Price forms the bearish IB
slingshot signal (arrow G) to indicate the probability that Price will continue
downward to the magenta MM line.
Price indeed does fall to that magenta level and abruptly stops and reverses
direction shown at arrow H.
The FT MM lines help us to predict future price levels where the market is likely
to halt, bounce or reverse entirely. This can assist us in picking price targets as
well as entry points for taking countertrend signals.
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Figure 50-2
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Figure 51-1 shows the opposite condition. Here Price is in a downtrend and
confirmed with the red/red lines in the FT Large Channel.
Now you would only consider going
short in the market indicated here
with the check marks placed at the
Sell
signals
produced
by
Divergence Pro. Notice the X
placed at the TS signal to go long.
Notice the thin gray dotted line that
runs at the exact middle of the top
and bottom lines of the FT Large
Channel. We use this line as
another filter to avoid taking trades
that trigger too far on the wrong
side of the channel.
This is
especially important when going
countertrend. Trade the upper side
for shorts and the bottom half for
longs.
Figure 51-1
Figure 51-2 shows us two yellow lines in the FT Large Channel. This indicates
that Price is not giving us enough range (up and down volatility) to take any
trades long or short.
We have placed orange X marks
at every signal indicating no trades
should be taken.
In each of the previous examples,
the check marks and the Xs do not
appear in real market trading.
They are placed here for clarity. It
is up to the trader to note the FT
Channel
color(s)
and
trade
accordingly. Or, the trader may
choose to enter the input settings
for Divergence Pro and let the
software filter (remove) any signal
in violation of the channel colors or
the location of the entry price
relative to the FT Large Channel
gray centerline.
Figure 51-2
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Figure 52-1
Each of these three twisting lines have a function. The main ones are the Fast
Turbo shown at arrow A and the Slow Turbo at arrow B. The smaller dotted line
at arrow C is part of a Keltner Channel (midline) and simply indicates price
directional strength/weakness as the colors shift from varying shades of blue
(bullish) to red (bearish). These color shifts are also evident in the Fast and Slow
Turbo lines.
Focusing now on the Fast and Slow Turbo lines, notice where the Fast Turbo,
which has been moving away from the Slow Turbo line, suddenly turns around
and attacks (heads toward) the Slow Turbo line as seen here at arrows D and
at arrows E. These are the exact points where the bearish Fast Turbo turned up
(bullish) or vice versa. We call these points Turbo Attacks.
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Next, notice at arrow F that the Fast Turbo line went down to the Slow Turbo but
was not able to push through. Instead, it turned and bounced off of the Slow
line and we call this event a Turbo Bounce.
At arrow G, notice how, following a Turbo Attack, that the Fast line passes
through the Slow Turbo and all three Turbo lines are spreading apart, or flaring.
We call this a Turbo Flair.
These Attacks, Bounces and Flares can add greatly to a corresponding signals
potential to make profit, but they are an added burden for the trader to keep track
of in addition to everything else. Divergence Pro to the rescue once again!
Figure 53-1
In this Figure 53-1 example, Divergence Pro makes having the Turbo Twister
lines on the chart unnecessary as it faithfully places the A (Attack), B (Bounce)
and the F (Flare) points right on the chart near the signals and price bars with
labels and red/blue triangle arrows.
Notice that some occur at the exact time a signal triggers but, if they appear,
most often it is one bar after a signal happens. These A, B and Fs often indicate
that conditions are good for continued price movement in the signal direction.
You can use Divergence Pro to filter signals using these Turbo A, B and Fs.
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Figure 54-1
Heres a chart of the S&P E-mini on a 233 tick Wicked Line Break chart shown in
Figure 54-1. The FT TrendMA is shown as a multi-colored line changing from
red to yellow to green. The red area, shown at arrow A, indicates that the market
is bearish and perhaps Buy signals should be avoided.
The green area at arrow B indicates the market has now turned bullish where
Buy signals would be in order and shorts (Sell signals) should be considered
carefully. The yellow area shown at arrow C, as an example, would indicate a
neutral condition that is neither bullish nor bearish. In this case, if other
indicators warrant, a signal could be taken in either direction.
The FT TrendMA can be set to use many types of Moving Averages including
Simple, Exponential, Hull and Weighted. But it should just be used as a guide
and not a standalone indicator for market entries.
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Figure 55-1
Divergence Pro will automatically create the FT Blue Ice chart for you as seen
here in Figure 55-1. See the blue EMA line at arrow A. Its our blue ice.
Theres another SMA line at arrow B that we call the snap line.
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Now, from the far left side of this chart example, imagine our Polar Bear walking
along our blue ice and getting hungry. At arrow C, the polar bear charges at
blue ice and tries to break through but with little success. He might have
caught a small meal but the ice was just too hard and thick to really submerge.
So, at arrow D, the Polar Bear gives up and walks along the ice to try at another
spot.
Each time the Polar Bear turns and charges at blue ice, he must cross the Snap
Line (arrow B). When he does, the price bars turn opposite their previous
coloralerting us to a Price attempt to bust Blue Ice.
Arrow E shows us that the Polar Bear has finally made his way through the ice
and is now submerged merrily catching fish to quench his hunger. But,
eventually, the Polar Bear must surface to breathe and we see two attempts to
do just that at arrows G. Notice the bullish snap at arrow F as the bars
changed from red to green. One try later, at arrows H, the bear breaks through
and once again is able to walk along the thicker Blue Ice as he searches for a
new spot to submerge again.
Notice at arrows I that two bearish snaps occurred where our imaginary Polar
Bear decided to charge Blue Ice but abandoned the effort before he even got
there. These weak attempts indicate strength on the buyers side of the market
and that Price should continue upward. Price hitting Blue Ice and bouncing back
gives a similar indication.
Once Price penetrates Blue Ice, we look for strength on that side and watch for
failed and abandoned attempts for Price to get back to the other side again.
Each failed or abandoned snap attempt indicates good opportunities for taking
signals corresponding to which side of Blue Ice Price is on.
Notice the odd yellow price bar at arrow J. These are somewhat rare. They
show where Price on a particular bar closed right on the Snap Line. We do not
consider these yellow price bars to have made a Blue Ice Snap.
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Basic Navigation
FT Divergence Pro contains an extensive list of inputs giving it the ability to
adapt to a wide range of trading styles within the Felton Trading method.
These inputs are divided into ordered sections, each addressing a fundamental
feature of the software. To navigate these sections more effectively, we suggest
collapsing unused categories by clicking the boxed minus sign ("-") to the left of
those section headings. See the red arrow in Figure 59-1 next page. Clicking the
resulting boxed plus sign (+) re-expands the collapsed section.
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Figure 59-1: Collapsing Unused Input Sections Expanding Help Text Sub-Window
Beneath the input section of the Indicators Window is a small Help box (lower
right) describing the significance of the selected input line. In Figure 59-1 above,
the input line and corresponding help section is titled NT Sound and Text Alert
and marked by a yellow arrow. However, the help text is often only partly visible.
To see the complete text, drag the top line surrounding the Help box upward to
enlarge the box until it contains the remaining text. Also, note that the input line
itself is sometimes partially covered on the right. This text section can also be
expanded by dragging to the right the midline separating the input name and its
variable.
Override Primary Settings With...
The first input in FT Divergence Pro's primary settings is "Override Primary
Settings With...". This contains a drop-down menu of options used to reset the
primary settings in FT Divergence Pro. "UserSettings" displays by default. As
long as this is showing, FT Divergence Pro will accept any input showing in the
indicators window - typically involving changes made by the user. If anything
other than "UserSettings" is showing, then upon clicking Apply or OK, FT
Divergence Pro will adopt settings from a stored list corresponding to the
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Secondly, note the green message in the upper left corner of the chart. This is a
written alert providing additional information about each setup. This also alerts
intra-bar "pre-setups," those meeting basic criteria but not filtering choices.
Message box options are controlled in FT Divergence Pro Section C: Message
Box (Figure 61-1 below).
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On Chart, K. Turbo Lines, and in the Plots section. Section A controls which
signals are displayed, along with a few filtering conditions for each. Section B
and the Plots section control most coloring options, and Section K controls Turbo
markers and background coloring.
After making color choices and setting display options to your preference, we
strongly recommend saving your selections as a chart template. To do this, close
the indicators window, right-click on chart, and choose "Templates... Save As"
from the bottom of the pop-up window, saving the template with a name of your
choice. Saving a template will save all user inputs, not just visual choices.
Consequently we suggest saving one template with color choices only to serve
as your default coloring scheme.
One further display option bears mentioning here: Show Filtered Signals in
Section B allows the user to see grayed-out markers on chart for signals filtered
by Divergence Pro. This can be especially helpful when changing filtering
options, allowing the user to see all possible setups from which Divergence
Pro is selecting signals.
Signal Filtering
FT Divergence Pro includes an extensive set of filtering options for each signal
type. Felton Trading signals each employ unique setup conditions and
consequently have their own filtering requirements. These can be found in
Sections E: Normal Divergence through J: Turn Signals. (A few general filtering
choices are also in Section A.) They include filters like "Confirm with Price
Channel" (i.e., FT Bands), "Confirm with TrendMA, and "Max Bars from
Agreeing Volatility Bar.
Changing the filtering conditions affects when the corresponding signal will
appear. For example, if Confirm with TrendMA is True in the Hidden
Divergence Section G, all HD signals will confirm only if the slope of the
TrendMA agrees with the signal direction. (This is typically a 20-period SMA, as
set in Section Z: Core Settings.) Similarly, if Max Bars from Agreeing Volatility
Bar is set to 15 in Section I: BreakOut, then no BO (or IB) signal will confirm
unless a volatility marker has occurred within the past 15 bars. (Note that the
volatility marker must match the BO volatility-bar setting in Section A.) Details for
the meaning of each filtering choice can be found in their corresponding Help
box, as described in Basic Navigation above.
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11.
Introduction
In the beginning, Felton Trading methodology was primarily a divergence based
trading system with Basic and Extended Divergence for counter-trend and
Hidden Divergence for with-trend trading. As the method evolved into a coded
system, it was logical to give it a name that reflected this. Thus the name
DivergencePro, later shortened to DivPro. As the software evolved, several
new signal entries were introduced that had nothing to do with divergence at all.
So it became apparent that a name change was necessary to avoid any
misconceptions or confusion. As Felton Trading adopted more customized bar
chart types such as the LineBreak and, more recently, the Renko, the time was
right for a name change of the softwareand thus the name SignalPro was
born.
The SignalPro Chart
Since SignalPro incorporates everything that currently exists in DivPro,
there really isnt a single type of bar chart that SignalPro can use. However,
there is one that is exclusive and now is a good time to introduce you to it. In
Figure 63-1, you can see the FTSupremeOHLC on a CL 16 tick, 1 step chart..
Figure 63- 1
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The lighter blue and red uniform size bars are your Renkos and, in this case,
each one is exactly 16 ticks tall. The step setting is 1 and this means that each
Renko bar exceeds the previous by 1 tick if a trend is to continue. Trends stop
and market turns occur when Price cannot move another tick in a trend direction.
In Figure 63-1, you can see several red arrows pointing out some of the
features, signals and indicators of the chart.
Indicators - Arrow A shows a VMA (Variable Moving Average) which some
traders use to help identify increasing or decreasing market volatility. It can also
serve as a guide for stop placement when trailing. Arrow(s) B show the blue
bullish and red bearish FTOverlay to help gauge buying and selling strength.
Arrow C shows the FTMovingAverage which helps us to identify the SA signal
entry. Arrow D points to the FTSupremeMomentum Line. This line, when dark
red (bearish) or dark green (bullish), shows when the market is particularly strong
in the respective direction.
Signals Arrow E points to a SM (Supreme Momentum) signal. This occurs
when the Supreme Momentum line starts its dark color slope. Arrow F shows an
SA signal which is created when the FTMA line (C) changes from red or green to
yellow and then back to the original red or green color indicating strength coming
into the market. Arrow G shows us the BR (Bottle Rocket) signal, named for the
long tails on the OHLC bars (K). BRs are particularly strong and popular
signals among Felton traders. Finally, Arrow H points to a Turn Bar, noted by
the large red or blue body of the candle. Notice the yellow labels and colored
arrows associated with most Turn Bars. These labels are familiar signals youll
probably recognize from DivPro.
Features - Arrow(s) I show the potential target lines (bullish and bearish) of the
SM signals. These lines are automatically generated for you by SignalPro
often well in advance of an SM signal even triggering at the beginning of an
FTSM line slope. Arrow J indicates the background color of the FTSM indicator
and lets you know when the FTSM line is in a strong slope position on your
trading chart and also on any other FTSupremeOHLC chart timeframe you
choose as long as the step size is 1. Arrow(s) K point to the thin white lines
which are your OHLC bars. These accurately keep a record of what Price
actually did within each Renko bar. The data is accurate historically, also, for
whatever number of days that you have loaded. Arrow L shows the beginning of
a FTSM line slope and prints with a green horizontal line for bullish and red for
bearish. This means that you dont actually even need to have the FTSM Line
and Background running on your chart to know when a slope will begin and
where it will end in the future if Price is able to continue in the trend direction.
SignalPro is continually improving, with significant upgrades released every
month on average. Filtering choices and settings can change as the program
evolves; likely becoming simpler as testing determines which filtering options are
most effective.
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12.
If we had to rank the major causes of student failure, negative human emotions
(and the havoc they cause) would easily rate #1. There is just something about
sitting and watching those candlesticks moving up and down all day that
completely mesmerizes us. It looks so devilishly simple. Get in and get out, right?
How hard can that be?
Quickly we find that the markets
are deceivingly difficult and
frustrating. No matter which
position you take, long or short,
the market is going to do its
best to make you feel like the
dumbest trader to ever look at a
chart. Your only protection is
the safety of your trading rules,
yet the market has a way of
lulling us into false security or
just plain scaring the daylights
out of us to get us to break our
rules.
The sad part is, about 90% of all traders blow up their trading accounts because
they cannot follow their own rules. Rules are crucial to successful trading. As a
car driver, if you choose to disregard the rules of the road, you probably will not
be driving very long. You can bend the rules now and then as a car driver but you
do not have that luxury in trading. Break your trading rules and the market will
break your trading account.
So, how do we become a truly disciplined trader? First, we start with a good
trading system or method. You must have total confidence in your trading system
and your ability to trade that system correctly or you can never become
disciplined. By disciplined, we mean you always have logical justification for
everything you do in the market, according to your rules, and never trade by
guesswork, intuition or gut feeling. Trading discipline means you are able to trade
without being paralyzed or influenced by fear.
The biggest cause of trader failure isnt because the system didnt work. Its
because they didnt work the system. Fear of loss and the fear of losing out
(greed) are the single most difficult demons to learn to control. Realize that your
goal isnt to abolish fear. That would be virtually impossible short of a lobotomy.
Human emotions are part of our being.
Our goal then is to control our emotions to the point where they do not interfere in
our decision making. When we rush to trade, place or run our stops too tight, exit
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winning trades too quickly while exiting losing trades much too late, we are the
victims of fear.
The most effective weapon against the devastating effects of fear is confidence.
Did you ever notice that all tasks requiring skill are done best by confident
individuals? Trading is no different. In fact, trading is one of the most
demanding and least forgiving of all skills you can perform sitting still.
People arent born confidentthey acquire it through knowledge and lots of
practice. When you can lose five times in a row and take a sixth trade without
any thought of previous loss, you are a confident trader. It comes from the
unshakable belief that trading is simply a numbers game once you have
mastered a good robust trading system. Do your job right and the numbers will
remain in your favor and you should enjoy a long and successful career as a
professional trader. Getting there takes work.
A good place to start building rock-solid confidence is in simulation trading.
Simulators such as the one offered in NinjaTrader mimic live account trading
extremely well. It allows you to put your emotions on hold while you master
your method and trading platform. Few traders can learn much of anything while
they are scared to death. So utilize a great resource and sim trade until you can
win on virtually any given day following your system rules religiously.
While you are building your skill level and confidence, youll need to pay attention
to some additional areas, too. Trading successfully also takes a great deal of
patience, focus and a positive attitude. If a trader fully understands his or her
trading system but is consistently losing when others trading the same system
are winning, the problem is nearly always mental. There are destructive negative
emotions at work and they must be fully understood and dealt with. They are:
Fear & Greed
Impatience
Recklessness
Attitude
Perfection
There are a few others, but these are
the main culprits that sabotage
trading success. Fear keeps us
mentally paralyzed and unable to
enter trades when we should. Greed
keeps us in trades too long and
causes us to snatch defeat from the
jaws of victory on a regular basis.
Impatience will not allow us to let
signals come to us. By the time a
signal properly forms, impatience
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become a bit greedy and stay in a trade too long. It turns against the trader and
loses. Perhaps the market condition has deteriorated or a string of losing trades
follows and the trader starts feeling their first negative emotionAnxiety. I just
need to relax my stop, the trader says. But the losses continueonly faster
now.
The trader is thinking, This just cant be happening. The market has to give me
those losses back. It owes me! Our trader cant believe how quickly losses can
happen. Not to me, the other guy is supposed to loseits called Denial.
The trader begins to rationalize. I think I just
need to increase my stop and lower my profit
target. But the losses pile on and turn into a
financial hemorrhage. As all of the previous
profits evaporate, our traders denial turns into
the realization that they werent bulletproof
after all. This is when the trader begins to
sweat as the feeling of real Fear begins to
take over.
Notice in Figure 66-1 that the Fear emotion is where the red dots first appear in
our Emotion Cycle graphic. This is the beginning of where most traders selfdestruct. It is where most mistakes happen. Trades are badly mismanaged,
rules are bent, broken or abandoned altogether in a frenzy of emotional turmoil
that completely destroys our traders ability to think clearly.
As Fear causes mistakes, more losses occur
and the trader quickly plunges through
Depression and into total Panic. More trades
are taken now with most of them being weak
or, worse yet, not even legitimate trades
according to the system methodology. They
are stab-in-the-dark guesses and they are
bound for failure. Oh, a few will win giving our
trader momentary hope but the majority will
not and the traders account will continue to evaporate.
Now the emotional cycle passes into an acceptance (Capitulation) that costly
mistakes have been made and disaster has struck our once euphoric trader. As
they begin to realize the extent of their losses in their frantic attempt to get whole
again, they hit the very bottom of human despairDesperation. From fear to
desperation, these red dot emotions are the ones that leave the deep mental
wounds and scars. Left untreated, these scars only serve to cause the trader to
continue to fail in the future as they exit winning trades much too early and exit
losing trades much too late. Here it is easy to fall into a vicious cycle.
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So, the desperate trader finally seeks help from his or her mentor. It is what they
should have done when things first started to go bad. But fear and panic clouded
their thinking and they only sought help when they became desperate.
So, together the trader and the mentor analyze
what went wrong and try to build a clear
understanding of the problem and a strategy to
help prevent a reoccurrence in the future. With
knowledge gained from their bad experience,
our trader sets out with new Hope and attitude.
They feel a sense of Relief as their wins exceed
their losses and their trading account begins to
recover.
Is our imaginary trader over the hump and headed for blue skies and rainbows?
Maybe. But the learning curve is never a straight line from any point in the
process. When you think about it, every difficult skill capable of producing a
healthy steady income is never mastered overnight. Its a process not an
event.
But, each downturn of the learning experience should trigger the realization that
something has gone awry. The trader should stop trading and analyze what the
culprit is. Have the markets gone soft? Has the trader become too aggressive?
Are rules being broken? Sometimes the trader (especially in the beginning) will
need to get with their mentor to sort out the problem. But the main thing is to
stop trading real money and fix the problem before continuing.
One of our very good trader students was once asked, What is your number one
recommendation for new students? Without hesitation, the trader replied, Stay
in simulation trading longer than you think you need to. Good advice indeed.
Sooner or later, every trader will venture forth and trade from their live account.
But many, if not most, do so prematurely. They are so eager to start making
money that they start trading their live account long before they are fully prepared
to do so. They lack the method mastery. They lack the experience. They lack
the ability to control emotions. They lack the level of real confidence that it will
take to see them through the rough spots. Itd be like putting a 3-month old colt
in the Kentucky Derby. It is just not ready and a lot of practice and training lies
ahead.
Trading is all about learning. Not just the method or the platformbut about
learning everything necessary to consistently win. That means learning about
patience, discipline, focus, emotions, attitude and real determination. It also
means learning from mistakesand mistakes will be made. Finally, it means to
never stop learning because the markets always have something new to teach
us. Thats why learning in a group of passionate traders under the guidance of a
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professional mentor is so effective. That way, the lessons of the markets are
never missed.
13.
The intent of this manual is to acquaint you with the Felton Trading system and
methodology and get you started on the road to success as a professional trader.
Many of you might already be enjoying profitability, but want to hone your trading
skills and add to your effective trading arsenal. Whatever trading level you are
currently at, novice or advanced, we look forward to a long-term relationship
through daily communication. This comes in the form of Live Trading Room
activity and commentary, regular Live Training sessions and one-on-one
personal mentorship whenever needed.
Although a manual is a good start, youre best source of knowledge and
understanding will be through the totally interactive training vehicles mentioned
above. Nobody ever became a successful trader by reading a book so take full
advantage of the excellent resources that Felton Trading offers. These are
unmatched in the industry and are designed for lasting trading success. Its great
to reach your trading goalsits even greater to be able to keep reaching them.
The best way to accomplish this is to have a master trading plan. It begins with
reading this manual. Once you have thoroughly reviewed each section and have
at least a fair understanding of the basics, the next step in your trading plan
should be to attend as many of our free online Live Training sessions as you can.
If you miss one, then review the recorded video of it as soon as convenient. Write
down anything you dont understand and need help with. Make sure all of your
questions are answered fully and you understand the answer completely.
Finally, even after you have been exposed to vast amounts of trading knowledge,
you will still need one more thing. An old Chinese proverb says, What I hear, I
forget; What I see, I remember; What I do, I understand. The point is, in order to
fully understand the method, you will need to do. So, be sure to attend the daily
Live Market Trading Room sessions that are held each weekday. Thats where
everything will all come together for you as you see the method actually
perform in the live market. Nothing beats having practical trading experience in
the live market with your instructor holding your hand, so to speak, and guiding
you to successful trading.
While you are learning and honing your trading skills, be sure to only trade in
simulation. Your broker can help you get set up with NinjaTraders simulation
trading platform that will allow you to place orders in the real market, but without
risking your real money trading account if you make mistakes (and, trust me, you
will make mistakes, but that is how you learn).
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Becoming a trading professional has little to do with how much money you are
making. It has everything to do with how well you can execute your trades
according to your method and its rules and thus reach your trading goals. The
object is not to win every trade. That is never going to happen. Your goal is to
win more than you lose, and you do that through sound Trade Management. It is
beyond the scope and ability of this manual to try to teach Trade Management,
but the topic is addressed and taught in the Live Market virtually every day.
Becoming a professional trader takes time, a lot of dedication and hard work. Too
many traders think that trading is a virtual money machine or a golden goose getrich-quick way to an unlimited paycheck. If it were that easy, everybody would be
doing it, right? You must make a solemn commitment now to do whatever it takes
for however long it takes. Trading success can be yours for the rest of your life
and Felton Trading will be there to guide you all the way.
14.
As a trader, you should never stop learning, but the knowledge you pursue must
be worthwhile. The value of divergence indicators, dual and multi-timeframe
confirms, support and resistance and everything else covered in this manual is
powerful stuff when used properly. Your trading system is your financial lifeline.
Dont allow your trading strategy to become corrupted by hyped fads that dont
work. The Internet is infested with them. Understand that there is no magic
indicator and no get rich quick system in trading. The true power of trading
success lies within you and you alone. You have the ability to make trading work
for you or against you. If there is a holy grail it lies within you.
But you cant do it alone and, with Felton Trading,
you dont have to. At Felton Trading, were just an
email (Beverly@feltontrading.com) or phone call (361578-7425) away for quick access to a vast universe of
excellent trading knowledge and mentorship. If you are
overseas or just prefer to use Skype, that can easily be
arranged, also.
All the manuals, trading books and articles combined cannot match the learning
power of having real-time trading experience and professional mentorship during
actual live market conditions. Nothing beats having a trading pro hold your hand
and keep you on track until you are ready to completely trade on your own. In
trading, it is truer than ever that knowledge is power. We look forward to sharing
our knowledge with you and give you the power to achieve your trading and
financial goals and keep achieving them.
The Story of the 3-Legged Stool - I knew a trader a few years back who
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stubborn trend and his first and second attempts failed miserably. On his
next attempt, he chatted, "Well, three's a charm". It wasn't.
For some reason, this old story got me to thinking about the old 3-legged
stool analogy. My, how rock-steady they are until you take away one
leg...and their "charm" comes crashing down. But, what does this have to
do with trading? A lot.
The goal of trading is ultimate, consistent and lasting success, right? But,
beyond that, "success" means different things to every trader. That is, we
don't all aim for the same amount of money (profit) in the same period of
time with the same amount of capital and risk using the same strategy. To
achieve our own individual definition of success, there are some
fundamental critical elements that can be considered to be the three "legs"
of a stool. They are: Method, Mindset and Mastery.
With an actual stool, each leg might be
made up of wood, plastic or metal. In
our "Trading Success" stool, each leg is
made of a subset of components. Let's
look at each one in more detail.
The Method leg is comprised of the
markets you trade and how you trade
them. The markets might be Equities,
Options, Futures, Forex, Nadex, etc.
The choices here are huge but not as many as the number of ways in
which we can trade them. I often remind my students that, "There are
several methods to consistently win and a million ways to lose". Trading
with the right methodology is important and it's even more important to
realize that the right method for one trader might be a disaster for you. For
instance, when choosing a method, careful consideration must be given to
the amount of complexity and the level of drawdown pain involved. Your
method choice, no matter how well it works for someone else, will never
work for you if it doesn't fit your personality and style. Many traders
mistakenly believe that, if they find a winning method that fits, that's all that
matters and vast riches are theirs for the taking. Nope.
The next leg of our trading stool is Mindset. This encompasses the entire
spectrum of trading psychology. It goes well beyond just having a winning
attitude and would certainly include patience, discipline, focus and
maintaining unshakable confidence in the heat of battle. Developing the
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15.
Glossary of Terms
Bear Market - A market in which prices generally are declining over a period of
time which could range from hours to months or even years. Opposite of Bull
Market.
Broker - A person paid a fee or commission for executing buy or sell orders for a
customer.
Bull Market - A market in which prices generally are rising over a period of time
which could range from hours to months or even years. Opposite of Bear Market.
Chart - The use of graphs in the technical analysis of futures markets to plot
trends and other movements of price and volume of trading for the purpose of
generating a signal to enter a trade.
Congestion - In Technical Analysis, period of time characterized by repetitious
and limited price fluctuations in which sellers attempting to cover their short
positions are unable to find an adequate supply of contracts provided
by buyers willing to liquidate.
Contract Month - The specified month within which a futures contract matures
and can be settled by delivery or the specified month in which the delivery period
begins.
Cycling - The up and down movement of market price similar to that of ocean
waves. Often referred to as market volatility.
Divergence - When the price of an instrument is moving in one direction, but an
indicator (or possibly another market) is moving in the opposite direction.
Divergence is most easily seen on a graphical chart when price is making lower
lows, for instance, while an oscillator is making corresponding higher lows.
EMA Exponential Moving Average
Exchange - A central marketplace such as the CME (Chicago Mercantile
Exchange) with established rules and regulations where buyers and sellers meet
to trade futures and options contracts or securities.
Futures - A standardized, transferable exchange-traded contract that requires
delivery of a commodity, bond, currency or stock index, at a specified price, on a
specified future date. Futures contain standardized terms, trade on a formal
exchange and are regulated by overseeing agencies such as the CFTC.
Futures Contract - A term of reference describing a unit of trading for a
commodity future. An agreement to purchase or sell a commodity for delivery in
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the future at a price that is determined at initiation of the contract and obligates
each party to the contract to fulfill the contract at the specified price .
Instrument - This refers to a particular market such as oil, gold or an index that
the trader is observing on their chart. They are represented by symbols such as
CL, GC and ES as respective examples.
Limit Order - An order placed with a brokerage to buy or sell a set number of
contracts (or shares) at a specified price or better. Limit orders also allow a trader
to limit the length of time an order can be in effect before being
canceled. Depending on the direction of the position, limit orders are sometimes
referred to more specifically as a buy limit order, or a sell limit order.
Line Break Chart - Line Break charts, such as the 3 Line Break, usually help
traders more accurately determine the current direction of a market trend and
alert them sooner when the trend has changed than do other methods (FT
Cycles, moving average crossovers, etc.). Line Break charts display a series of
vertical bars that are based on the closing prices. These bars are often seen
sans the wick/tail shadows but Felton Trading uses a specially created Line
Break that produces the wicks and tails which are necessary for backtesting as
well as helpful when trading. In a 3 Line Break chart, for instance, price cannot
close unless it has (1) exceeded the high or low range of the preceding 3 price
bars (not including the wicks/tails) and (2) price must be above or below this level
when the bar counter has completed its count setting. Every time there is a
higher close a new up bar is created. When the price closes below the low of 3
previous bars the trend shifts to down and we start drawing red (bearish)
bars. Every new closing low draws a new red bar and so on. Line Break charts
often can help a trader spot trend reversals quickly. There are many uses for
Line Break charts. You can use them for entries, exits and make wonderful
places to trail your stops to catch the majority of the move.
Long (Buy) - One who has bought a futures contract to establish a market
position in the hopes that the price will rise. Opposite of Short.
Market Order - An order that a trader makes through a brokerage service to buy
or sell an instrument immediately at the best available current price. A market
order is almost always executed quickly because it does not contain restrictions
on the buy/sell price or the timeframe in which the order can be executed.
Mini - Refers to a futures contract that has a smaller contract size than an
otherwise identical futures contract.
Momentum - In Technical Analysis, the relative change in price over a specific
time interval. Often equated with speed or velocity and considered in terms of
relative strength.
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Overbought - A technical opinion that the market price has risen too steeply and
too fast in relation to underlying fundamental factors. Rank and file traders who
were bullish and long may soon turn bearish.
Oversold - A technical opinion that the market price has declined too steeply and
too fast in relation to underlying fundamental factors; rank and file traders who
were bearish and short may soon turn bullish.
Position - An interest in the market, either long or short, in the form of one or
more open contracts.
Resistance - As markets move up and down, they encounter price levels that
cause the market to halt for a while or possibly completely reverse direction.
When a market is moving upward and encounters a price area where new selling
will emerge to dampen a continued rise, it is said to be finding resistance.
Retracement - A reversal within a price trend.
Scalping - A trading strategy where quick trades are taken for small profit
targets.
Short (Sell) - The selling side of an open futures contract. One who has bought a
futures contract to establish a market position in the hopes that the price will fall.
Opposite of Long.
Simulator - Also known as Simulation Trading, Sim Trading and Paper Trading.
This invaluable feature enables the trader to set up a simulated trading account
and actually trade real-time markets using it. With NinjaTrader, the effect is
extremely realistic and allows the trader to master their method and the trading
platform without risking any of their actual real money trading account as their
skill level increases.
Slippage The difference between where we wish to get filled in our trade
entries and exits and the actual fill price. Slippage can be positive but usually it
results in lost profit potential.
SMA Simple Moving Average
Stop Limit Order - A stop limit order is an order that goes into force as soon as
there is a trade at the specified price. The order, however, can only be filled at
the stop limit price or better.
Support - As markets move up and down, they encounter price levels that cause
the market to halt for a while or possibly completely reverse direction. When a
market is moving or trending downward to a price area where new buying is likely
to occur and stem further decline, it is said to be finding support.
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