Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Publishers Note: These papers are still in draft form and are subject to
Warrens
St. Michael
Note that the Research and Policy Working Papers is not intended to provide any policy
advice or comments on the behalf of Government. Its only intention is to provide persons
working in various research and planning units of government, with a medium through which
they can express their ideas on issues of a public and private nature.
VOLUME 5
RESEARCH AND POLICY WORKING PAPERS
2012
CONTENTS
I.
ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
AND
COMPETITIVENESS:
A
CARRIBBEAN REVIEW...................................................................................5
By Antonio Alleyne
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
I. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
AND COMPETITIVENESS: A
CARIBBEAN REVIEW
By
Antonio Alleyne
INTRODUCTION
The issue of being internationally
competitive has long been a critical one for
the states of the Caribbean1 region; prior
and into the 21st century. According to the
World Bank, the Caribbean region is at a
development crossroads and its member
nations must take significant and concrete
steps to improve productivity and
competitiveness and face up to more global
competition if they are to accelerate or
even maintain past growth. By taking such
steps, they will reposition themselves
strategically as an emerging trading bloc for
goods and services; without such action,
they
risk
growing
economic
marginalization and erosion of many of the
social gains of the last three decades(The
World Bank 2005).
The Caribbean region is largely
made up of small island developing states
that bear the similar physical characteristics
of being located a considerable distance
away from the main lands of larger
territories, which leaves them essentially
isolated and for the most part disconnected
from these territories. It is argued that this
positioning has had the effect of retarding
their ability to develop and achieving
competitiveness
within
the
global
economy. Coupled with these physical
constraints is the fact that historically, local
business persons focused on low-risk
business activities such as wholesale and
retail trade or services, which avoided
1
2001
48.4
129.3
87.1
106.4
120.0
107.5
74.7
112.1
206.4
48.5
114.5
104.9
109.7
78.0
99.9
2002
47.8
122.4
86.2
107.6
118.7
109.3
72.8
101.2
198.2
48.1
116.3
101.2
105.5
58.4
95.0
2003
48.3
127.9
87.3
108.5
119.4
104.5
86.5
101.5
189.6
63.7
115.5
119.2
104.6
65.3
90.0
2004
51.4
132.7
94.1
115.5
109.2
106.3
83.9
109.0
201.5
59.4
108.0
118.6
107.8
74.2
96.7
2005
53.7
134.9
102.0
128.7
117.3
62.5
108.3
65.5
97.5
203.8
57.0
114.3
124.6
109.6
75.6
104.8
2006
56.5
129.3
107.8
126.4
123.2
66.8
107.9
68.0
98.8
59.5
113.2
121.4
107.3
107.0
2007
57.3
127.6
104.9
129.5
121.6
67.7
108.4
66.7
101.5
52.2
110.6
122.9
109.9
100.6
2008
59.2
126.6
95.1
130.5
132.1
62.5
108.5
64.7
93.5
56.9
110.1
109.4
140.6
110.3
103.0
100.2
unemployment/underemployment,
and
generally
improves
the
level
of
susceptibility to external forces in the
developing economies. It is instructive to
reiterate the point at this juncture that,
Caribbean countries already suffer the
handicap, that is, the inability to enjoy
economies of scale.
To compete successfully at an
international level it is imperative to know
where a countrys competitiveness lies, and
with the Caribbean this is no exception.
Downes (2010) refers to competitiveness
as the ability of the enterprise, industry,
country to produce and sell goods and
services in domestic/foreign markets at
7
IN THE CARIBBEAN
The
study
of
economic
development in the Caribbean has been
afflicted by the lack of consensus in the
region concerning the definition of its
process. Despite the small-scale residential
manufacturing activity that took place
during the early decades of the 20th century,
thoughts of economic development in the
Caribbean only really occupied the minds
of leaders after the Second World War,
following the move towards the
decolonization of the territories of the
region (Payne and Sutton 2001).
Mandle has argued that without a
solid academic consensus over the
objectives
of
development
policy,
politicians have been left without clear
guidelines concerning the target towards
which their policies should be designed
(Mandle 1996). Payne and Sutton once
described Caribbean development as a
series of bouts of optimistic endeavour
followed by disillusion (Payne and Sutton
2001). Further outlining four phases of
economic development in the Caribbean:
(1) the confident espousal of the
modernising potential of industrialisation
and economic diversification; (2) the
dependency theory - emergency of
9
11
12
1970
1980
1990
8.6
2.5
1.5
-5.6
6.5
-1.6
4.1
Barbados
9.5
4.7
-4.8
2.3
Belize
4.8
15.2
10.6
13.0
Bermuda
6.3
7.9
0.0
2.9
14.3
5.3
0.7
18.2
8.0
-5.5
5.7
-0.4
5.2
12.6
4.3
1.7
-3.0
-1.4
0.9
Dominica
Dominican
Republic
Grenada
Guyana
Haiti
Jamaica
2000
Bahamas, The
12.1
-5.7
4.2
0.9
8.2
2.3
2.8
St. Lucia
St. Vincent and the
Grenadines
23.5
0.0
10.7
2.0
5.0
1.8
Suriname
Trinidad and
Tobago
-5.3
-0.5
-0.1
3.5
10.4
1.5
6.1
Caribbean Average
7.1
5.4
3.0
3.4
Overview
of
the
Competitiveness Level
Caribbean
99.0
95.8
99.7
75.1
88.0
89.1
96.0
99.0
54.8
86.0
97.8
94.8
88.1
90.4
98.7
GDP - per
capita (PPP)
2011
16,400
28,700
21,800
8,400
69,900
10,400
8,900
10,200
7,200
1,200
8,300
13,700
11,700
10,300
9,700
21,200
Caribbean Average
90.2
16,125
Caribbean Country
2009 Literacy
rate
Human
Development Index
2011
0.764
0.771
0.793
0.699
0.724
0.689
0.748
0.633
0.454
0.727
0.735
0.723
0.717
0.680
0.760
Table 4: Global Competitiveness Index and Ranking - Caribbean and Other Major Players
GCI
2001/2002
Rank Score
5
34
40
2
7
Country
Switzerland
Barbados
Trinidad and Tobago
Jamaica
Guyana
Chad
Caribbean Major Trading Partners
United States
United Kingdom
15
GCI 2010/2011
Rank Score
1
5.63
43
4.45
84
3.97
95
3.85
110
3.62
139
2.73
4
12
5.43
5.25
CONCLUSION
The
process
of
Caribbean
development over the years has been by no
means an easy undertaking. With the
implementation of varying development
theories, pioneered primarily by foreign
influences, the Caribbean remains severely
challenged with respect to its ability to
compete in the international arena. Part of
which can be attributed to an incoherent
regional understanding of the concept
competitiveness and its value for economic
development. This of course does not
overlook the handicap of limited resource
endowments faced by the countries in the
region.
From
the
periods
of
industrialisation by invitation; to the
dependency analysis phase; to neo-liberal
policy economy; the true potential of the
regions
competitiveness
was
predominantly over shadowed by the
enjoyment of preferential arrangements,
which have now for all intents and
purposes can be deemed to have run its
course.
For Caribbean countries to move
beyond the current levels of development
they
must
first
understand
the
interdependence between competitiveness
and the development process. This is of
greater importance given their endowment
challenges and the slow pace, of the
process of full integration in the region.
(Acknowledging a major characteristic of
the current economic era is the integration
of economies, where countries do not
compete as an individual nation, but as a
bloc or region.) Despite the diverse
challenges facing the Caribbean in their
ability to raise their level of development
through competition on the international
market, it must be recognised that the
foundations for this process have already
been laid. Historical experiences aside,
Caribbean economies have a number of
positive attributes to offer.
Overall, strengthening of the
current linkages between sectors combined
16
18
Derek Gibbs
Chief Economist
Economic Affairs Division
19
By
Derek Gibbs
Introduction
This draft paper seeks to incite
discussion on what are the key constraints
impeding stronger economic growth in
Barbados. Equally, the paper would also
want to explore ideas as to what could be
the possible short and long-term solutions
that could be submitted for consideration
and
perhaps
implementation.
The
approach to this would be to employ the
growth diagnostic methodology framework
(See Hausman, Rodrik and Velasco, 2005)
and apply it to the special case of
Barbados, a small open economy with no
natural resources and limited financial
capacity. The study also draws on a similar
study done on Malawi by the World Bank
(2009).
The motivation for the study
comes at a time when Barbados is facing
some of its greatest challenges since the
start of the global recession late 2008. This
led to negative economic growth at the end
of 2009 (4.1%) and negligible positive
growth for 2010 and 2011. However, it
cannot be the argument that sluggish
growth is a recent occurrence. As captured
in Table 1 below, Barbados has moved
from an average annual growth position of
2.2% (1980 to 1989) to 0.8% (1990 to
1999) and 0.4% (2000 to 2011). Associated
with this has been declining domestic
savings, while the investment pattern has
been mixed. This weak growth has had an
impact on labour with the unemployment
rate, between 1980 and 2011, averaging
14.0%. Over this period, the rate would
have reached as high as 24.0% owning to
I.
II.
10 Yr
Averages
GDP growth
(annual %)
Barbados
Gross
capital
formation
(% of GDP)
1980-1989
2.20
19.60
19.80
1.70
21.50
16.20
1990-1999
0.80
15.50
17.10
2.10
27.75
19.70
2000-2011
0.38
21.44
15.88
n.a.
24.70
5.20
GDP growth
(annual %)
Mauritius
Gross
capital
formation
(% of GDP)
Gross
domestic
savings (%
of GDP)
GDP
growth
(annual %)
Singapore
Gross
capital
formation
(% of GDP)
Gross
domestic
savings (%
of GDP)
1980-1989
4.30
23.50
20.30
7.80
40.90
42.30
1990-1999
5.20
28.30
24.10
7.30
33.60
48.80
2000-2011
4.00
24.40
17.30
6.40
22.10
48.70
GDP growth
(annual %)
St. Lucia
Gross
capital
formation
(% of GDP)
Gross
domestic
savings (%
of GDP)
GDP
growth
(annual %)
Small states
Gross
capital
formation
(% of GDP)
Gross
domestic
savings (%
of GDP)
1980-1989
5.89
28.20
11.80
2.30
25.30
19.20
1990-1999
5.40
24.10
16.20
3.00
26.20
21.70
2000-2011
2.60
29.20
13.60
3.90
24.70
20.88
Gross
domestic
savings (%
of GDP)
GDP
growth
(annual %)
Jamaica
Gross
capital
formation
(% of GDP)
Gross
domestic
savings (%
of GDP)
22
GROWTH DYNAMICS
III.
quite
important
for
maintaining
macroeconomic stability.
While the HRV framework has its
groundings in the standard economic
theory outlined in the Ramsey model, it is
best viewed within a simple constraint
matrix that matches symptoms with
constraints (See Hausmann, Klinger and
Wagner, 2008). Within this matrix each
column identifies a constraint and each
row represents a symptom of that
constraint. The matrix could be more
complex but for this discussion it is kept as
simple as possible.
IV.
What has
Growth
Driven
Barbados
23
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Contribution to RGDP - %
Sugar
2.6
2.2
2.0
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.0
0.9
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.6
3.3
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.4
3.2
Manufacturing
6.9
6.4
6.4
6.2
6.2
6.1
5.8
5.6
5.5
5.0
4.8
4.5
Tourism
16.1
15.5
15.0
15.8
13.5
12.3
13.8
11.8
11.8
11.9
12.3
12.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.5
3.5
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.9
4.1
4.1
4.1
Construction
7.5
8.2
8.8
8.7
8.8
9.6
9.1
8.9
8.4
7.2
6.5
7.0
19.4
19.3
19.4
19.8
20.7
21.0
21.2
22.2
22.0
21.8
22.3
22.2
13.8
13.9
14.7
13.9
14.4
14.4
14.0
14.2
14.6
15.6
15.8
16.1
Government
Transportation, Storage &
Communication
Business & Other Services
GDP - Market Prices (millions
BDS$)
8.4
8.7
8.4
8.5
8.8
8.8
8.8
9.2
9.5
9.6
9.6
9.6
17.0
17.3
16.8
17.2
17.9
18.0
18.1
18.9
19.2
19.5
19.6
19.7
6186.7
6183.2
6234.0
6484.8
6980.0
7837.3
8393.0
8966.2
8687.4
8793.3
8490.4
8625.8
Domestic Exports
379.2
352.7
333.1
329.2
346.9
422.1
497.1
522.3
531.2
458.6
522.8
568.5
Retained Imports
2146.7
1971.0
1991.7
2220.5
2616.3
2911.0
2866.9
2958.2
3396.0
2600.4
2802.9
3231.1
6.1
5.7
5.3
5.1
5.0
5.4
5.9
5.8
6.1
5.2
6.2
6.6
Imports
34.7
31.9
31.9
34.2
37.5
37.1
34.2
33.0
39.1
29.6
33.0
37.5
Trade balance
-26.4
-24.1
-24.6
-27.0
-30.3
-29.4
-26.0
-26.1
-30.9
-22.4
-25.4
-26.4
Likewise,
the
manufacturing
sectors contribution to growth has also
fallen, moving from double digits as seen
in the 1980s (between 1980 and 1986 the
contribution to real GDP stood at an
annual average of 11.3%), to single digits,
which between 2000 and 2011 averaged
5.8%. Loss of market share due, among
other things, to increased operating cost,
market liberalization, and low investment,
could be seen as some of the constraints
facing the sector.
Alternatively, while the major
foreign earning traded sectors have been
facing some challenges, the non-traded
25
Productivity Measures
An important gauge element for
economic growth is to measure the
efficiency of labour both at the macro-level
and at the micro-level. Based on work
done by the National Productivity Council,
measures of labour productivity are
captured in Figure 6 below. Represented in
the chart are national productivity growth
measures, sectoral productivity statistics for
key industries, and real GDP growth. It is
the expectation that decreases/increases in
national productivity growth would be
accompanied by similar patterns in
economic growth. From the pattern this
does not seem to be the case except for
2009 and 2010. Compared to the individual
sectors there also appears not to be any
real relationship with growth, except for
the accommodation (tourism related)
sector.
Again using basic correlation
analysis to test the linear relationship
between national productivity changes and
economic growth the relationship had an
explanatory power of 42.0% (R = 0.4201).
In the case of accommodation the
explanatory power was just 15.0% (R =
0.1466). For the other sectors, the
explanatory power was negligible. Given
the short time series (only seven years) it is
difficult to draw any strong conclusion
from these results, except to say that
productivity levels for most of the sectors
appears to have weaken during the period
2008 to 2010. Nonetheless, the fact that
tourism productivity was shown to have
more significance than the other sector
would strengthen the argument of its
importance.
26
Way Forward
V.
27
VI.
28
Poor
Geography
Low appropriability
Bad international
finance
Bad local
finance
Bad
infrastructure
Low
Human
Capital
Government
failure
Market
failure
Low Domestic
savings
Poor
intermediation
Information
externalities
Coordination
externalities
Micro risk:
Property rights,
corruption, taxes
Growth
Issues
Constrained
by
Macro risks:
financial, monetary,
fiscal instability
Financial
29
30
31
34
successive governments.
Conclusion
36
37
as
the
Educational
Sector
Enhancement
Programme
(EDUTECH);
The
development
of
training
institutions such as the Samuel
Jackman Prescod Polytechnic to
facilitate the delivery of vocational
subjects; and
The provision of learning facilities to
cater to the needs of children with
physical and cognitive challenges, as
well as at-risk children
In
addition
to
these
accomplishments, several activities are
ongoing to enhance and diversify the
offerings of the education system, ranging
from the advancement of National and
Caribbean Vocational Qualifications, to the
formation of smart-partnerships with
international institutions such as the InterAmerican Development Bank (IADB).
Partnerships such as these, aim to
institutionally strengthen those agencies
that have the responsibility of providing
education services to the country.
In acknowledging the various
achievements that have been made, there
still remain several obstacles to the further
development of the countrys education
system. For instance, it is often reported
that some sixty percent of students leave
school without any formal system of
certification. Moreover, the capacity of the
tertiary
institutions
to
adequately
accommodate all students that are desirous
of pursuing studies at that level is also a
cause for concern. However, arguably one
of the most critical challenges confronting
Barbados education system has been the
chronic disconnect that continues to exist
between the course offerings of Barbados
major training institutions and the needs of
employers operating in the real-world work
environment. It is with this concern in
mind that this paper has been prepared,
along with recommendations as to how the
disconnect can be successfully addressed.
38
between
employers
and
training
institutions are often infrequent, sporadic
and uncoordinated. Consequently, if there
is general consensus that the human
resource is critical to Barbados emerging as
a developed nation by 2025, innovative
means must be found to ensure that smartpartnerships between these parties are
formed and that information on desired
skills are communicated to Government
and training institutions in reasonable
timeframes.
The education system must be
mindful of such developments, for if
education is to be truly placed at the
forefront of socio-economic development
in Barbados, it must implement those
policies and programmes which are
necessary to make it dynamic and
responsive to the needs of its people,
particularly businesses that generate and
drive commercial activity.
THE IMPORTANCE OF SKILLS NEEDS
INFORMATION AND ITS RELATION TO
THE EDUCATION SYSTEM
In addition to training institutions,
skills needs information is vital for other
categories of information users. In recent
years, information on the skills and training
needs of employers in industry have
emerged to become arguably the most
sought-after category of labour market
information required by the general public.
Traditionally, the primary types of labour
market information required by public
users pertained to statistics such as the
unemployment rate, employed persons
working in Barbados major economic
sectors and employed persons dissected
into major occupational groupings such as
Managers, Professionals and Skilled
Craftsmen. Within recent years however,
there has been a distinct demand for the
provision of diverse types of information,
ranging from employment projections by
occupation, to information on job losses
and gains by economic sector.
39
(i)
40
Tourism,
Agriculture,
Manufacturing,
Business and Financial Services,
Wholesale and Retail Trade,
Construction,
Public Sector,
Cultural Industries
11
41
formulating
a
comprehensive
public relations campaign to
adequately inform and sensitise
employers as to the conduct of the
survey;
payment of Field Investigators for
their travel to and from survey
participants;
associated survey expenses such as
printing of survey instruments and
printing costs; and
managing and monitoring the
activities of Field Investigators
42
43
Priority Ranking
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
CONSTRUCTION
Level of Certification Desired
Bask, Masc.
Assoc. Degree, B. Sc, M.Sc
Certificate
Certificate
Diploma to Degree level
Diploma to Degree level
B.Sc
Certificate, B.Sc, M. Sc
Certificate
Certificate, Carib Voc. Qualifications
(C.V.Q)
Certificate, Carib Voc. Qualifications
(C.V.Q)
Certificate, Special License
Certificate/Diploma/B. Sc/M. Sc
B.Sc, M. Sc
44
Priority Ranking
2
2
2
3
3
2
1 to 2
2
1
3
2
2
1 to 2
3
2
Table 3: Selected Information obtained from the Public Sector Focus Group
PUBLIC SECTOR
Skill-Set Required
Level of Certification Desired
Nursing
Degree level
Clinical Psychiatry & Psychology
Post Graduate Qualification
Procurement Management
Certificate to Post Graduate Qualification
Project Management
Diploma to Post Graduate Qualification
Foreign Languages
Conversational
Research Skills
Systems Analysts
B.Sc coupled with relevant short courses
Programming
B.Sc coupled with relevant short courses
Software Development
B.Sc coupled with relevant short courses
Records Management
Certificate
Legislative Drafting
L.L.M, Post Graduate Certificate
Curriculum Development
Specialists
B.Sc, Post Graduate degree
Competency Based Training
Negotiating Skills
Certificate
Industrial Relations
Certificate to Masters level
Supervisory Management
Certificate
Priority Ranking
3
3
2 to 3
2
3
3
2
2
2
3
3
3
2
2
2
3
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
(vi)
45
(vii)
(viii)
RECOMMENDATIONS TO STRENGTHEN
AND SOLIDIFY THE INFORMATION
COLLECTED UNDER SKILL NEEDS 2012
In light of the scope and direction
of the project, the Ministry is of the view
that there are a number of complementary
actions that must be pursued if the
projects objective is to be truly realised.
These actions are now outlined below:
CONCLUSION
In a dynamic and extremely
competitive labour market, the adverse
consequences that could be realised from a
countrys failure to conduct structured
skills needs assessments can be primarily
seen though the presence of wasteful
labour market imbalances and skills gaps
that can arise due to the lack of timely
information.
One such practical example would
be the case of students of tertiary
institutions, who invest their time, effort,
energy and financial resources into
pursuing a training programme for which
there is no demand. This unfortunate
scenario leads to unemployment, underemployment, or the student being
compelled to accept a job that in no way
makes use of their acquired skills and
competencies.
Government itself also reaps
adverse consequences, in that scarce
financial resources, especially in a time of a
Barbados
Human
Resource
Development Strategy 2011 2016.
Medium Term Development Strategy
2010-2014.
The National Strategic Plan of Barbados
2006-2025.
International Perspectives on Labour
Market Intelligence (International
Network
of
Sector
Skills
Organisations).
Barbados Economic and Social Report
(various editions).
Financial Statement and Budgetary
Proposals (various editions).
47
48
By
Antonio Alleyne
ABSTRACT
The importance of the tourism
industry is reflected in the fundamental
role it plays in the employment,
development and capital components of
the countrys economic performance. As
such, finance plays a life sustaining role in
the industrys development. It acts as a
lubricant in the process of economic
growth and is an essential element for
everyday activity. Thus, adequate supply of
financing increases the overall growth and
development (Chand 2000) of an economy,
indirectly.
A snapshot review of the financing
flows of the tourism industry reveals that
Barbados continues to establish financing
and guarantee facilities options to aid in the
development of tourism. However,
disequilibrium between the demand and
supply of these facilities remains. This
broad analysis raises a number of
unanswered questions pertinent to decision
makers. For the appropriate policy measure
to be developed a comprehensive
(empirical) analysis of the prevailing
situation at ground zero is paramount.
INTRODUCTION
At a time when development
financing in services and tourism-based
economies such as Barbados, which are
dependent on travelers, continues to be
rattled by the lingering effects of on-going
developments in Europe and the slowed
recovery process in other developed
markets, it is imperative that the decision
makers, in their efforts to foster economic
growth, grasp with great detail the
12
49
developing
countries.
The
study
investigated the pattern of investment
financing and argued for commercial
considerations rather than political. It also
emphasised the need for proper investment
legislation, which is simple and easily
communicable and specifically designed to
protect the investor. Noting that there is
confusion among the government agencies
caused by overlapping roles and functions,
the author lauded the single window
policy13 as an appropriate policy for
investment.
In a recent study, Bishnu Prasad
Gautam (2008), while considering the
macro effects and the availability of fiscal
space, investigates the effects of tourism
industry on GDP and finds a significant
positive relationship between tourism
financing and GDP in Nepal. Moreover,
the role of various sources of tourism
financing, including government financing
and the loan financing of banks and
financial institutions, on economic growth
has also been examined and the result
supports the conventional wisdom that
there is significant positive relationship
between the variables.
Results from the study suggest that
to finance the tourism sector, several
strategies and sources may be tapped.
Among domestic private investment,
government budget and foreign aid
(bilateral and multilateral), other sources
such as foreign direct investment and
13
54
Enterprise
Growth
Fund
Limited
(EGFL)
Equity
Financing Loan Facilities
15
55
Corporation
Barbados
Investment Fund (BIF)
BLADEX
Facilities
Trade
Financing
58
CONCLUDING REMARKS
With greater distancing from a
primarily agrarian based economy, the
services sector, and in particular tourism,
has become critical to the development of
Barbados;
even
superseding
the
manufacturing industry. Recognising the
growing possibilities that may be obtained
through a competitive tourism industry,
the Barbadian government has over the
years sought to assist the development of
the industry through a number of policy
initiatives and programmes. According to
the 2008 OECD Policy Brief, any country
wanting to boost its tourism industry, or
remain globally competitive, needs to be
able to build and improve accommodation
facilities, provide an adequately educated
and trained workforce, and provide
effective marketing. Appropriate financing
is therefore required. But, is the Barbados
economy fiscally capable of offering better
conditions or have all sources and
strategies been exhausted (Gautam 2008),
which then points to a need to improve
productivity?
In 1989, Poons study of the
Barbados tourism industry revealed that
the availability of and conditions for
financing offered to the industry is critical
to the future of tourism and its survival.
However, being among the many countries
unable to provide the appropriate and
necessary concessional ease for the tourism
operator, Barbados continues to establish
financing facilities guaranteeing options
with the development of tourism as a
primary focus. Additionally, the factors
affecting the demand for the available
tourism financing are clear cut. Yet still
PRELIMINARY RECOMMENDATIONS
Confronted by a situation of tight
financial constraints coupled with the need
to foster economic growth and
development through the tourism industry
performance, the following innovative
measures are suggested for investigation to
aid in correcting the current imbalance:
59
WORKS CITED
60
61
62
63
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six
Seven
Eight
Poverty
Education
Gender
Child
Mortality
Maternal
Health
HIV/AIDS
Environment
Partnership
Partial
Achieved
Achieved
Achieved
Achieved
Achieved
Changes
needed
Insufficient
information
ENSURING
66
CONSTRAINTS TO
IMPLEMENTATION
The constraints experienced with
implementing the Barbados Sustainable
Development Policy can be summarized as
follows:
67
1.
Capacity: There are inadequate
human, financial and technical resources
dedicated to sustained implementation and
evaluation activities associated with the
BSDP. Particular attention is required in
areas such as research, public education,
further policy development, lobbying and
advocacy and demonstration projects.
Additionally, a dedicated staff, comprising
administrative and technical personnel, is
needed to facilitate the work of the NCSD
which is envisaged would have ownership
for monitoring implementation of the
policy. During its tenure, the NCSD
operated as a voluntary entity and without
an allocated budget or independent
secretariat (this may change in the future),
the creation of which would enhance the
ability of the NCSD to fully implement and
institutionalize the BSDP.
2.
Information
for
Decisionmaking: The performance of a greenbased economy, much like a traditional
one, is greatly enhanced by the availability
of key data and information regarding its
performance.
This
Sustainable
Development and environment feedback is
not readily available at this point in time.
Barbados is working assiduously to
develop a coordinated approach to
statistics and data collection. Where data is
available it exists in differing formats and
in different locations, which makes it
problematic for decision-makers to get
information on a sustained basis and at
opportune moments. This scenario also
has an added impact on the effectiveness
of regulation and enforcement practices.
5.
Although Barbados is a developing
country, it has a high standard of living
which means its primary economic and
social indicators follow those exhibited by
developed countries. This brings with it
waste
management,
health
and
conservation problems which tax the
limited resources of finance and physical
space needed for adequate management of
associated issues.
6.
Communicating
sustainable
development to the general population is a
challenge, for many the concept of a green
economy is a relatively new one, or one
whose advantages have not been fully
understood or appreciated. For effective
education, a variety of messages have to be
transmitted to a number of different
publics in differing formats. The resources
required to adequately provide the volume
of information required in the appropriate
format have been ad hoc and information is
usually provided in response to various
3.
In terms of enforcement, there is
a lack of legal authority and institutional
capacity needed for the implementation
and enforcement associated with the
BSDP. While a significant amount of
legislation exists for the management of
natural resources, some of it needs to be
updated to reflect current national goals
and circumstances. A number of agencies
68
situations.
The approach to public
education and information requires
streamlining and coordination and will be
bolstered by the requisite information for
decision-making.
7.
There is inadequate opportunity for
timely reviews and evaluation of the
planning process.
i.
ii.
The
Government
however
recognizes that high land prices and
construction costs have placed these goals
out of reach of those persons with
moderate incomes. Whereas the upper
income groups are better able to meet their
obligations, the greater challenge lies in the
supply of affordable housing. Hence, the
Government through the Ministry of
Housing and Lands and the National
Housing Corporation (NHC), together
with the private sector has and will
continue to embark on vigorous
programme to provide affordable and
adequate housing.
Goal 8: Global
Development
Partnership
for
OFFICIAL
DEVELOPMENT
ASSISTANCE
Having
been
graduated
as
developing country with middle-income
status, Barbados no longer has access to a
large range of funding mechanisms, which
once helped to build and maintain gains in
human development. In the face of a rapid
decline in aid flows between the Caribbean
and its traditional development partners,
over the past decade, this has led to
Barbados and other Caribbean countries
having to carry the brunt of the cost of
implementing international sustainable
development agreements and the MDGs.
DEBT SUSTAINABILITY
In seeking to control the countrys
debt levels,
the Government is
endeavouring to reduce the ratio of public
debt to under 60.0 percent (the
international standard) by 2012. At the end
70
POVERTY
The mere fact that levels of
required fiscal constraint will impact the
social provisioning needed in Barbados in
the near to medium term future definitely
implies that the eradication of extreme
poverty and extreme hunger must remain
high on the post-2015 development agenda
and cannot be seen in isolation from the
other goals.
AID
For the very uncertain economic
future the global community faces
together, there are four broad avenues
through which dependence on aid can
influence sustainability of the post-2015
MDGs:
1. Degree of dependency on aid:
Where
countries
are
heavily
dependent on aid, governments
remain
vulnerable
to
sharp
fluctuations in aid flows. In some
cases, certain sectors within a country
may rely heavily on aid to function
DEVELOPMENT
CONCLUSION
References
1. UNDP
Assessment
of
Development
Results
(ADR)
(2009).
Challenges
in
2. UNECLAC,
Meeting
the
Monitoring
Requirements of the MDGs,
(2004).
3. Andrew S. Downes and Doris
Downes,
The
Millennium
Development Goals in the Eastern
Caribbean: A Progress Report,
UNDP (2003).
4. Barbados Country Assessment of
Living Conditions Final Report
(2012).
5. UN Human Development ReportsVarious Editions.
6. Tara Inniss. Comprehensive Report
to Inform the Presentation by the
Government of Barbados to the
Annual Ministerial Review of the
United Nations Economic and
74
75
76
By
Cyril Gill
ABSTRACT
Small open developing economies
such as Barbados are heavily dependent on
trade - primarily imports - for business
continuity, social development and a host
of other reasons. It is for this reason that
Barbados is a net importer of foreign
goods. While import trade does not
necessarily determine the exchange rate in
Barbados and while there is no strong
economic rationale which purports that
exchange rates under a fixed regime move
to equilibrate trade imbalances it is
purported that movements in the real
effective exchange rate may signal the
stability of the dollar which by extension
influences the magnitude of import trade
flows.
This paper examines the
relationship of real exchange rate changes
and import demand in Barbados for the
period 1970-2010. Through the use of a
Cointegration Error Correction Model this
study presents a variation of the
Marshallian demand model to estimate the
long and short run dynamics of the import
demand function. The results indicate that
accounting for the real exchange rate
effects in the import demand equation
shows special significance to the Barbadian
scenario as the tested import demand
components are cointegrated and thus
cannot drift too far apart. Real effective
exchange rates in particular prove to be a
significant contributor to import demand
conditions in the long-run and hence
conforms to theoretical construct of
exchange rates in the long run. This
77
18
20
79
THEORETICAL MOTIVATION
The proposed exchange rate
component to be included in the model
has its bearing within the theory of
Purchasing
Power
Parity
(PPP).
According to the theory, international
trade responds quickly to international
price differences, if goods were cheaper in
one country than in the next they would
be exported from the first country and
imported into the second until the price
difference disappears.
This is:
Mt = f (Yt, RPt)
eq1
With
Mt - the real quantity of imports in volume
terms;
Yt - real income or domestic economic
activity; and
80
81
LRRP
Pd
Pm
LRER
LRGDP
LNGDP
LRIM
METHODOLOGY
83
ADF
PP
series that appear to be stationary, by
applying the alternative hypothesis.
If perhaps in the event that the
unit root tests shows that all variables are
stationary (meaning the variance, auto
covariance (at various lags) of the
individual series are time-invariant) then
this would give way to estimating the
coefficients through the use of the
standard OLS technique. However, if the
variables are non-stationary in their levels,
the standard regression could be
inappropriate as the conventional t and F
tests may give misleading spurious results;
such as the ones characterised in Appendix
5 (i.e. High R2 and low Durbin Watson
statistic).
If the variables are found to be
non-stationary at levels then they may be
determined to be stationary in their first
differences22.
Once there exists
stationarity due to a linear combination of
the set of variables integrated of the same
order then it is possible for the series to be
cointegrated. To test for cointegration and
y;
84
EMPIRICAL
RESULTS
INTERPRETATION
AND
23
85
Diagnostic tests
Under the Johansen cointegration
framework errors must be normal hence to
ensure estimation procedure confirms with
the Johansen framework errors were tested
for normality within the pure VAR model.
Component
Jarque-Bera
df
Table 1
Prob.
1
2
3
4
2.695135
3.926074
1.541796
3.799144
2
2
2
2
0.2599
0.1404
0.4626
0.1496
Joint
11.96215
0.1529
24
86
Table 2
VAR Residual Serial Correlation LM Tests
Null Hypothesis: no serial correlation at lag order
h
Date: 04/20/11 Time: 11:29
Sample: 1970 2008
Included observations: 38
Lags
LM-Stat
Prob
1
2
20.90239
15.93036
0.1823
0.4578
Cointegration Analysis
The first step in route to estimating
the long and short run dynamics captured
with the cointegration-VECM framework
is that of lag optimality.
Lag optimality
Using
maximum
likelihood
method, one can get estimates of
cointegrating vectors for a number of
variables. However, the first step in
testing for cointegration was to find the
appropriate lag length.
This was
determined through the use of several tests
for lag optimality which is given in the
table 3 below:
Table 3
VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria
Endogenous variables: LRM LRER LRPC LRRP
Exogenous variables: C
Date: 04/13/11 Time: 20:31
Sample: 1970 2008
Included observations: 36
Lag
LogL
LR
FPE
AIC
SC
HQ
0
1
2
3
60.53669
227.3057
241.9324
253.5365
NA
287.2133*
21.94000
14.82745
5.08e-07
1.18e-10*
1.32e-10
1.85e-10
-3.140927
-11.51698*
-11.44069
-11.19647
-2.964981
-10.63725*
-9.857168
-8.909165
-3.079517
-11.20993*
-10.88800
-10.39814
Table 4
LRER
LRPC
LRRP
Joint
Lag 1
34.05300
[ 7.27e-07]
52.56201
[ 1.05e-10]
60.65334
[ 2.11e-12]
41.87205
[ 1.77e-08]
187.0311
[ 0.000000]
Lag 2
3.029399
[ 0.552918]
10.33038
[ 0.035215]
4.011987
[ 0.404386]
3.659466
[ 0.454049]
26.55909
[ 0.046652]
df
16
88
Eigenvalue
Max-Eigen
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None *
At most 1
At most 2
At most 3
0.589254
0.322070
0.192156
0.120148
32.92190
14.38231
7.895296
4.736038
32.11832
25.82321
19.38704
12.51798
0.0398
0.6894
0.8307
0.6346
THE
COINTEGRATION
Jordan,
91
Appendices
Graphical Representation of the Various Series
Appendix 1
92
Appendix 2-1
Correlograms of the Various Series in Levels
93
Appendix 2-2
Correlograms of the Various Series in Levels
94
Appendix 3-1
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test for Unit root
VARIABLES
Levels
Intercept trend
LNGDP
(-3.017573)
0.1412
LRMt
0.7730
LRGDPt
0.1854
LRPt
0.2970
LRERt
0.2445
LRNIRt
0.1883
LRPCt
7.064
LRRP
0.2551
Critical value = -3.536601 at 5% level of significance
First difference
Intercept, trend
Conclusion
(-4.828597)
0.0021
0.0028
0.0388
0.0056
0.0016
0.0000
0.0164
0.0066
I(1)
I(1)
I(1)
I(1)
I(1)
1(1)
I(1)
Appendix 3-2
Phillips-Perron Unit Root Tests
VARIABLES
Levels
First difference
Intercept trend
Intercept, trend
LNGDP
0.2591
0.0038
LRMt
0.7536
0.0004
LRGDPt
0.4185
0.0077
LRPt
0.8061
0.0055
LRERt
0.8303
0.1133
LRNIRt
0.1657
0.0000
LRPCt
0.8894
0.0314
LRRP
0.8076
0.0096
Critical value = at 5% level of significance
Conclusion
I(1)
I(1)
I(1)
I(1)
I(2)
I(1)
I(1)
I(1)
Appendix 3-3
VARIABLES
Conclusion
LNGDP
0.075334
0.067885
I(0)
LRMt
0.156240
0.107378
I(1)
LRGDPt
0.122994
0.076103
I(0)
LRPt
0.199115
0.158921
I(2)
LRERt
0.187031
LRNIRt
0.127103
LRPCt
0.189716
LRRP
0.192683
Critical Value at 5% = 0.1460
0.093295
0.204838
0.056072
0.136532
I(1)
I(2)
I(1)
I(1)
95
Appendix 4
Date: 04/13/11 Time: 21:21
Sample (adjusted): 1972 2008
Included observations: 37 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
Cointegrating Eq:
CointEq1
LRM(-1)
LRER(-1)
LRPC(-1)
LRRP(-1)
@TREND(70)
C
Error Correction:
1.000000
7.175632
-0.382348
-16.17070
-0.156532
-15.27204
D(LRM)
(0.98144)
(0.15768)
(2.15301)
(0.03011)
[ 7.31133]
[-2.42486]
[-7.51074]
[-5.19782]
D(LRER)
D(LRPC)
D(LRRP)
CointEq1
-0.085266
(0.06833)
[-1.24782]
-0.035936
(0.04951)
[-0.72584]
-0.150311
(0.07159)
[-2.09969]
0.027370
(0.02595)
[ 1.05489]
D(LRM(-1))
-0.183485
(0.19698)
[-0.93148]
-0.113592
(0.14272)
[-0.79589]
-0.573423
(0.20636)
[-2.77869]
-0.094700
(0.07479)
[-1.26615]
D(LRER(-1))
-0.305946
(0.47769)
[-0.64047]
0.355743
(0.34610)
[ 1.02785]
0.061904
(0.50044)
[ 0.12370]
-0.089906
(0.18138)
[-0.49569]
D(LRPC(-1))
0.269620
(0.16582)
[ 1.62595]
0.199073
(0.12015)
[ 1.65693]
0.451400
(0.17372)
[ 2.59842]
0.158718
(0.06296)
[ 2.52085]
D(LRRP(-1))
1.145244
(1.02391)
[ 1.11850]
0.095703
(0.74187)
[ 0.12900]
-0.023607
(1.07268)
[-0.02201]
0.609385
(0.38877)
[ 1.56745]
0.015900
(0.02243)
[ 0.70884]
-0.025419
(0.01625)
[-1.56403]
0.033324
(0.02350)
[ 1.41808]
-0.018916
(0.00852)
[-2.22096]
R-squared
Adj. R-squared
Sum sq. resids
S.E. equation
F-statistic
Log likelihood
Akaike AIC
Schwarz SC
Mean dependent
S.D. dependent
0.296529
0.183066
0.280022
0.095042
2.613437
37.84969
-1.721605
-1.460375
0.009898
0.105153
0.323310
0.214166
0.147001
0.068862
2.962241
49.77155
-2.366030
-2.104800
-0.027751
0.077681
0.378134
0.277833
0.307332
0.099569
3.769991
36.12804
-1.628542
-1.367313
0.051277
0.117167
0.294014
0.180145
0.040370
0.036087
2.582043
73.67998
-3.658377
-3.397147
-0.023256
0.039855
5.17E-11
2.55E-11
241.2726
-11.47419
-10.21158
96
Appendix 5-1
Dependent Variable: LRM
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/11 Time: 01:24
Sample: 1970 2008
Included observations: 39
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
DLRGDP
DLRRP
DLRER
DLRPC
DLRNIR
2.967527
1.249651
2.372416
-0.847439
0.304980
0.027617
1.064162
0.248841
0.654527
0.404341
0.075781
0.043130
2.788604
5.021875
3.624628
-2.095855
4.024499
0.640323
0.0087
0.0000
0.0010
0.0438
0.0003
0.5264
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.759016
0.722504
0.104517
0.360486
35.99674
20.78775
0.000000
10.01535
0.198408
-1.538294
-1.282362
-1.446468
0.642683
Appendix 5-2
Dependent Variable: LRM
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/20/11 Time: 03:24
Sample: 1970 2008
Included observations: 39
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
DLNGDP
DLRP
DLRER
DLRPC
DLRNIR
5.317783
0.947184
1.743115
-0.573506
0.203390
0.009874
0.739066
0.229663
0.648029
0.405555
0.085691
0.047239
7.195271
4.124240
2.689872
-1.414125
2.373524
0.209027
0.0000
0.0002
0.0111
0.1667
0.0236
0.8357
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.711970
0.668329
0.114265
0.430863
32.51918
16.31427
0.000000
97
10.01535
0.198408
-1.359958
-1.104026
-1.268132
0.564925
Appendix 5-3
Dependent Variable: LRM
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/20/11 Time: 03:39
Sample: 1970 2008
Included observations: 39
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
DLNGDP
DLRRP
DLRER
DLRPC
DLRNIR
5.605035
0.938256
2.067067
-0.783897
0.227187
0.003217
0.742632
0.221177
0.684343
0.430889
0.085816
0.046244
7.547525
4.242111
3.020512
-1.819256
2.647365
0.069565
0.0000
0.0002
0.0048
0.0780
0.0123
0.9450
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.724880
0.683195
0.111675
0.411550
33.41342
17.38954
0.000000
10.01535
0.198408
-1.405816
-1.149884
-1.313990
0.586819
Appendix 5-4
Dependent Variable: LRM
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/20/11 Time: 03:40
Sample: 1970 2008
Included observations: 39
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
DLRGDP
DLRP
DLRER
DLRPC
DLRNIR
2.392211
1.349639
2.277252
-0.753986
0.296683
0.028455
1.072506
0.258937
0.621109
0.375302
0.073577
0.042813
2.230486
5.212235
3.666431
-2.009014
4.032262
0.664623
0.0326
0.0000
0.0009
0.0528
0.0003
0.5109
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.760598
0.724325
0.104174
0.358120
36.12513
20.96867
0.000000
98
10.01535
0.198408
-1.544879
-1.288946
-1.453052
0.636296
Appendix 6
Heteroskedaticity tests
VAR Residual Heteroscedasticity Tests: No Cross Terms (only levels and squares)
Date: 04/20/11 Time: 12:26
Sample: 1970 2008
Included observations: 38
Joint test:
Chi-sq
df
Prob.
84.65703
80
0.3395
Individual components:
Dependent
R-squared
F(8,29)
Prob.
Chi-sq(8)
Prob.
res1*res1
res2*res2
res3*res3
res4*res4
res2*res1
res3*res1
res3*res2
res4*res1
res4*res2
res4*res3
0.264530
0.218103
0.308066
0.259134
0.102495
0.275262
0.097601
0.072141
0.251080
0.133314
1.303820
1.011159
1.613935
1.267919
0.413977
1.376808
0.392072
0.281844
1.215300
0.557599
0.2805
0.4494
0.1641
0.2979
0.9031
0.2478
0.9159
0.9667
0.3250
0.8032
10.05213
8.287902
11.70649
9.847074
3.894825
10.45996
3.708855
2.741363
9.541022
5.065931
0.2614
0.4059
0.1648
0.2759
0.8665
0.2342
0.8824
0.9495
0.2987
0.7505
99
100
INTRODUCTION
Tourism is a broad service sector,
which requires a wide range of simple and
complex goods and services to support it.
The industry utilizes focused tourism
components, such as tour operators, travel
agencies and lodging, in addition to banks,
insurance companies, transportation, food,
culture and other technical services and
material products (machinery, equipment,
instruments), these are required to support
travel activities and tourism attractions.
Tourism, broadly defined, is regarded as
the world's largest industry and one of the
fastest growing, accounting for over onethird of the value of total world-wide trade
in services. Highly labour-intensive, it is a
major source of employment generation,
especially in remote and rural areas.
Tourism demand, both domestic and
international, is directly related to income
levels, and therefore has prospered as
global wealth has increased.
The purpose and objectives of this
study are to show if the restaurant sector,
within the Barbados Tourism Industry,
took advantage of the benefits that were
afforded to them. These benefits would
have been, the infrastructure and the
concessions that the Government of
Barbados would have created over the last
twenty-four years. This would have
affected the growth, development and
diversification of the restaurant sector,
from the 80s to the present. This study
provides a restaurant industry growth
model. What would be the significance of
such patterns of turning points to the
restaurant industry? It would lead to the
elimination or reduction of the industry
cycle risk. This should then presumably
result in an improvement in the
investment decisions of firms, thereby
improving their effective allocation of
resources. This research is beneficial in
terms of its contribution to both the
restaurant industry and the academic
By
Ricardo Norville
ABSTRACT
The objectives and intentions
within this study are to show if the
restaurant sector, within the Barbados
Tourism Industry, took advantage of the
benefits that were afforded to them. These
benefits
would
have
been,
the
infrastructure and the concessions that the
Government of Barbados would have
created over the last twenty-four years.
This would have implications for growth,
development and diversification of the
restaurant sector, from the 80s to the
present. This paper indicates that there has
been a very nurturing environment created
within the country, for the tourism
industry, which has enabled the Barbados
restaurant sector to evolve into one of the
best destinations in the Caribbean, when it
comes to a myriad of cuisines and the level
of dining. This research as will also show,
that even though there were cases where
there was no or little growth within the
economy, that this sector was able to hold
its own and still grow, with the possibility
of a cycle emerging for the industry. The
Government of Barbados should continue
on this path of development but they
should be careful of freeloaders within the
system and to look at more trade related
factors, which will lead to the restaurant
industry being more competitive in
relation to other destinations in the
Caribbean.
101
Years
1985
1987
1988
3
1989
2
1991
3
1992
3
1993
2
1994
2
1996
3
1997
3
1998
2
1999
2
2000
2
2001
2
2003
3
2004
3
2006
3
2007
3
Average
SD
2.625
0.518
2.5
0.535
* SD is standard Deviation.
4.2 Indicators Used in this Study
The list of indicators that are used
within my analysis are percentage
contributions of hotels and restaurants vs
GDP, that is how much money they
contribute to the gross national product,
tourist accommodation (rooms); the
number of rooms that were available and
registered at this time; tourist stay over
arrivals by country, the number of tourist
arrivals from major markets; real GDP
growth within the country from 1982 until
2004; type of restaurant, including type of
cuisine and the year they opened their
doors, employment was also used within
the tourism sector and location of
Tourists
200,000
CANADA
150,000
U.K
100,000
EUROPE
C'BEAN
50,000
OTHER
0
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Y e a rs
109
Figure 2
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
Estimates Visitor
Expenditure (US$ millions)
GDP Growth % Real
Growth
-6.0
-8.0
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
Dollars
Years
Figure 3
Visitor Expenditure vs. Hotel & Restaurant GDP
Dollars
1000
15
800
10
600
400
200
0
0
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Years
Estimates Visitor Expenditure (US$ millions)
% Conrtribution of Hotels and Restaurants to GDP
111
Figure 4
Establishments Opened
12
Number
10
8
6
4
2
0
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Years
Figure 5
Restaurant Concentrated by Parish
Number
7
6
St Peter
St James
4
3
St Michael
CH CH
Other
0
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Years
112
Figure 6
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
19
82
-5
84
19
% G rowth
10
-10
Years
NUMBER OPENED
113
Figure 7
Number of Resturants
Service Catered To
25
20
Dinner
15
Lunch
10
Breakfast
5
0
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Years
Figure 8
Other
Oriental
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
French
Italian
Seafood
Caribbean
International
Local
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
Number of Resturants
TYPE OF CUISINE
YEARS
Contemporary
Hospitality
Management, 5(1), 1-3.
Troyer, C. R. (1996). Foodservice logistics:
Ripe for change. Transportation &
Distribution, 37(5), May, 106.
Wacker, J. G. (1985). Effective planning
and cost control for restaurants:
Making resource requirements
planning work. Production &
Inventory Management, 26(1),
First Quarter, 55-70.
World Tourism Organization, Seminar on
GATS Implications for Tourism,
1995, p.36.
World
Tourism
Organization,
International Tourism: A Global
Perspective, 1997, p.226.
World Tourism Organization, Tourism
Economic Report, 1998, p.87.
World Tourism Organization as found in
OECD, Tourism Policy and
International Tourism in OECD
Countries, (OCDE/GD (97)173,
Paris, 1997.
World Trade Organization, The results of
the Uruguay round of multilateral
trade negotiations. The legal texts.
World Travel and Tourism Council, Air
Transport and Freer World Trade,
Internet
version
(http://www.wttc.org/).
Yavas, U. (1996). Demand forecasting in a
service
setting.
Journal
of
International
Marketing
&
Marketing Research, 21(1), Feb, 311.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Central
116
APPENDIX I
BARBADOS TOURISM AUTHORITY
VISITOR ARRIVALS MAJOR MARKETS
1982-2004
YEAR
U.S.A
CANADA
U.K
EUROPE
C'BEAN
OTHER
1982
75,511
59,619
51,145
21,588
81,864
14,068
1983
113,989
53,198
47,662
17,334
83,789
12,366
1984
140,202
67,307
46,274
16,820
83,999
13,050
1985
148,093
70,573
38,922
16,666
71,066
13,915
1986
166,250
60,285
47,590
19,082
61,701
14,862
1987
175,093
64,349
79,152
23,598
64,356
15,311
1988
170,773
65,622
101,231
34,404
63,410
16,045
1989
154,269
65,564
118,122
43,949
62,840
16,515
1990
143,295
57,830
94,890
57,873
62,298
15,881
1991
119,069
46,286
88,166
65,788
57,988
16,925
1992
110,685
49,999
88,759
65,518
52,831
17,680
1993
112,733
49,190
100,071
61,871
52,462
19,652
1994
109,092
52,286
123,455
68,077
51,487
21,235
1995
111,983
53,373
126,621
70,462
58,635
21,033
1996
111,731
54,928
139,588
62,418
56,752
21,666
1997
108,095
58,824
155,986
64,632
63,581
21,172
1998
106,300
59,946
186,690
65,045
70,358
24,058
1999
104,953
57,333
202,772
41,221
86,127
22,208
2000
112,153
59,957
226,787
33,988
87,424
24,387
2001
106,629
52,381
217,466
28,659
80,085
21,858
2002
123,429
46,754
192,606
25,328
89,505
20,277
2003
129,326
49,641
202,564
29,526
96,809
23,345
2004
129,675
50,025
213,945
30,030
104,754
23,073
117
APPENDIX II
YEAR
Estimates Visitor
Expenditure (US$
millions)
% Contribution of
Hotels and Restaurants
to GDP
Barbados GDP
Growth % Real
Growth
Employed Labour
Force Tourism Sector
(Thousands)
1982
251,100,000
10.2
-4.9
1983
251,600,000
9.8
0.5
1984
284,200,000
10.0
3.6
1985
309,000,000
11.7
1.1
1986
326,900,000
10.2
5.1
1987
378,700,000
10.8
2.6
1988
460,000,000
11.8
3.5
1989
527,800,000
11.9
3.6
1990
493,500,000
11.4
-3.3
1991
459,700,000
10.9
-3.9
9,500
1992
462,500,000
11.8
-7.2
9,800
1993
528,000,000
12.9
0.8
9,400
1994
597,600,000
14.0
4.6
11,100
1995
611,800,000
13.3
2.0
11,900
1996
632,900,000
13.0
3.9
14,400
1997
657,200,000
12.4
4.7
12,300
1998
703,000,000
12.3
3.7
14,000
1999
666,200,000
11.0
0.4
12,500
2000
711,300,000
11.4
2.3
14,600
2001
686,800,000
11.2
-2.6
13,900
2002
647,800,000
10.9
0.7
14,200
2003
746,900,000
11.8
2.0
14,000
2004
763,200,000
12.4
4.9
12,200
118
APPENDIX III
LOCATION
St
Peter
St
James
Year
Opened
1982
1983
1984
1985
2
3
4
1986
1987
1988
1989
3
0
1990
1991
0
3
1992
1993
1994
1
3
2
1995
1996
4
8
1997
1998
6
8
1999
2000
11
2001
2002
6
8
2003
10
2004
2005
2
4
2006
2007
6
1
TOTAL
101
St
Michael
SERVICE
Ch. Ch
Other
1
2
1
2
1
Breakfast
Lunch
Dinner
1
3
2
3
3
1
2
1
2
1
3
1
3
6
4
7
1
1
5
5
6
8
3
1
3
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
3
2
2
3
4
1
1
10
1
3
1
3
1
2
1
2
5
7
6
5
10
1
3
1
1
2
1
2
4
4
1
5
1
67
92
45
1
7
19
23
119
15
APPENDIX IV
CUISINE
Local
International
Caribbean
1
1
Seafood
Italian
French
Oriental
Other
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
3
1
2
1
19
1
40
47
26
120