Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
GL
Future
Journeys
AL
OB
R
MA
KE
T
2013 2032
IN
FL
GD
UE
NC
SH
AR
OF
GI
TR
NG
RE
IGH
TER
P
ASS
ENG
ER
ET
ET
IN
EC
IN
CO
DL
CL
AS
OM
IE
EV
OL
SE
UT
IO
RV
IN S
ICE
ERV
FU
ID
ON
FIC
FLE
FLE
SA
AF
BL
TH
EM
ER
DI
SP
OF
ICE
EL P
INTE
RNATIO
RICE
NAL T
INTERN
ATIONAL
RIPS
STUDEN
TS
TICKET PR
ICE
URBAN POPULATION
KETS
ING MAR
EMERG
ON
I
AT
IS
RA
FA
C
AD
PE
LO
PT
IO
N
ICE
SU
ERV
MID
D
LAT LE EA
S
IN
EUR AMER T
OPE
ICA
CIS
ASIA
AFR -PACIF
IC
IC
NOR A
TH A
MER
ICA
IN S
LEE
T
F
TO
C
IR
SE
AT
FT
L
TI
CO
N
VIAT
A
IES
-CIT
EGA
M
ION
EL
RAFT
AIRC
FU
TION
NERA
GE
NEW
NCE OF
INFLUE
GL
Future
Journeys
AL
OB
R
MA
KE
T
2013 2032
IN
FL
GD
UE
NC
SH
AR
OF
EM
GI
TR
NG
RE
IGH
TER
P
ASS
ENG
ER
ET
FLE
ET
IN
EC
IN
CO
DL
CL
AS
OM
IE
EV
OL
SE
UT
IO
RV
IN S
ICE
ERV
FU
ID
ON
FIC
FLE
SA
AF
BL
TH
ER
DI
SP
OF
ICE
EL P
INTE
RICE
RNATIO
NAL T
INTERN
ATIONAL
RIPS
STUDEN
TS
TICKET PR
ICE
URBAN POPULATION
NCE OF
INFLUE
W
NE
KETS
ING MAR
EMERG
CRAF
N AIR
RATIO
GENE
IES
-CIT
EGA
NM
IO
VIAT
A
Traffic
Economy
Ecology environement
Fleet in service
Global markets
ON
TI
SA
LI
S
TO
AT
FA
C
PE
R
Eco-efficiency
Fleet-in-service
VIC
UM
PT
IO
SER
MID
D
LAT LE EA
S
IN
EUR AMER T
OPE
ICA
CIS
ASIA
AFR -PACIF
IC
IC
NOR A
TH A
MER
ICA
F
LEE
T IN
NS
FU
EL
CO
Aircraft utilisation
Load Factors
Middle East
Latin America
Europe
CIS
Asia Pacific
Africa
North America
LO
Urban population
Disposable incomes
Influence of the middle class
Influence of emerging markets
Ticket price
Fuel price
AD
Traffic evolution
Passenger fleet in service
Freighter fleet in service
International trips
Internation students
CR
R
AI
SE
AF
I
UT
Contents
Introduction 07
01. Executive summary
10
14
Economy 16
Market drivers
24
Network development
33
40
48
Single-aisle 50
Twin-aisle 52
Very Large Aircraft
54
58
Asia-Pacific 60
Europe
64
North America
68
Middle East
72
Latin America
76
CIS
80
Africa
84
88
100
102
108
112
Introduction
Aviation at the centre of Future Journeys
With each successive Airbus Global Market Forecast
(GMF) we seek to deliver a 20-year view of the demand
for civil passenger and freighter aircraft that will serve as
a reference for airlines, airports, investors, government
and non-government agencies, air transport and
economic planners world-wide.
We chose the title for this years GMF Future Journeys
to remind us that, behind the data, the analysis and the
predictions contained in our forecast, the community
that constitutes the air transport industry essentially
provides journeys. These journeys involve real people,
each with their own particular reason to embark upon
each journey.
Very soon after the first flights of the early 1900s, flying
became less about the challenge of flight itself and more
about peoples journeys. As early as 1914 passenger
flights were a regular occurrence and 1919 saw the
creation of the first airline that is still operating today.
People were quick to grasp the benefits aviation could
bring to their journeys, beginning with the transport of
high-value freight in the form of air mail.
E-mail:
market.forecast@airbus.com
www.airbus.com/
company/market/gmf2013
all a big part of the story, and will drive factors such as
urbanisation, wealth, disposable income and consumer
spending, key factors in the growth of air transportation.
In this years GMF, we will delve a little more deeply into
these factors to show how they in turn drive our forecast
and results. However, its not just about the benefits
aviation can bring to people, but the benefits aviation
can bring to countries for example look at contribution
to GDP. Report after report has shown the scale of
benefits aviation brings in terms of jobs and economic
development. Good reasons to ensure that aviation is
able to reach its potential in the future.
70 %
500
450
400
-43%
350
300
250
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
200
Average aircraft capacity has grown by more than 25% over the last 20 years
Source: OAG, Airbus
2.4
2.2
2.0
Traffic in ASKs
1.8
1.6
Growth in frequencies
Growth in per flight capacity
1.4
1.2
1
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
01
Executive
summary
executive summary
Background
36%
Traffic
that time. These trends will also form the basis on which
aviation will continue to grow in the coming 20 years, with
aviation becoming increasingly accessible to people in all
parts of the world. Each year, Airbus forecasters take the
best macro-economic and operational data and combine
it with a forecasting methodology developed over 20
years, performing more than 208 traffic flow forecasts,
over 100,000 Origin and Destination (O&D) city-pairs and
modelling demand for nearly 750 individual airlines in
order to deliver the forecast.
Share of passenger
and freighter aircraft
delivered to Asia
In fact by 2032, about 60% of all traffic will still involve the
advanced aviation markets, primarily North America and
Europe. As in GMF 2012, traffic carried by airlines from
the Middle East airlines is expected to grow at the highest
rate of 7.1% per annum, accounting for 12% of all traffic
carried in 2032. But the three largest regions in terms of
airline domicile will continue to be Asia-Pacific, Europe
and North America, accounting for 34%, 22% and 18%
of global traffic respectively in 2032. World-wide freight
traffic is expected to grow slightly higher than passenger
traffic at 4.8% per year.
Highlights
While GDP continues to be a strong explanitory variable
for aviation growth, Airbus traffic forecasts also test
and use other variables. For example, the Chinese
market is also driven by real consumption and trade,
which are used to forecast future demand. Last year,
Chinese domestic traffic was identified as the largest
flow by the end of the forecast period, a view that
is re-asserted in this years forecast. The emerging
markets as a whole, with their economic growth, large
populations and growing middle-classes continue to
be strong drivers on the forecast, with Asia-Pacific
becoming more significant over time in terms of new
2013-2032
29,226
New
deliveries
20,000
18,000
12,000
2013-2022
2023-2032
2013-2032
Africa
443
527
970
Asia-Pacific
4,894
5,770
10,664
36%
CIS
587
508
1,095
4%
Europe
3,035
2,792
5,827
20%
Latin America
1,040
1,239
2,279
8%
Middle East
1,010
989
1,999
7%
North America
2,968
2,553
5,521
19%
Freighters
416
455
871
3%
World
14,393
14,833
29,226
100%
8,000
28,355
4,000
29,226
New
deliveries
871
0
Single-Aisle
& Small jet freighters
% units
% value
69%
41%
Small Twin-Aisle
& Regional freighters
17%
26%
Intermediate Twin-Aisle
& Long range freighters
8%
17%
Large aircraft
& Large freighters
6%
16%
Passenger
Fleet
5,296
10,798
Freighter
Fleet
12,193
Remarketed
& stay in service
12
1,859 Converted
Retired
1,395
13
02
Demand
for air
travel
Economy
forecast world economic growth rates are no longer being revised downward
Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus
3.8%
Commercial air transport development is driven by two main factors: economic growth and air ticket price
stimulation. Economic developments can be measured by several elements including private consumption,
disposable income, exports, imports or tourism growth (national and international). However, the variable
that best combines these different dimensions is the more global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as shown
in the chart below.
3.3%
3.2%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
3.3%
2.0%
2.3%
1.5%
2.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
J
16%
2012
-2%
2010
-4%
2008
-1%
2006
-2%
2004
0%
2002
0%
2000
1%
1998
2%
1996
2%
1994
4%
1992
3%
1990
6%
1988
4%
1986
8%
1984
5%
1982
10%
1980
6%
1978
12%
1976
7%
1974
14%
1972
16
8%
2012
2013
Population of
emerging economies
5 billion
Global Market Forecast
17
EUROPE-CIS
14 emerging economies
380 million people (2012)
Strong trade growth between emerging economies* over the last 10 years
Source: IMF, Airbus
16.3%
20%
18%
16%
ASIA-PACIFIC
10 emerging
economies
3,500 million
people (2012)
LATIN AMERICA
11 emerging economies
500 million people (2012)
14%
12%
6.2%
10%
8%
4.6%
6%
AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
4%
8 emerging economies
60 million people (2012)
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1992
1995
0%
1994
2%
1993
11 emerging
economies
430 million
people (2012)
* 54 emerging economies
A global world: Foreign Direct Investment increasingly directed towards emerging economies*
100%
45%
80%
22%
55%
70%
60%
40%
40%
35%
30%
75%
40%
25%
0%
1992
to 1997
1997
to 2002
2002
to 2007
History
2007
to 2012
2012
to 2017
2017
to 2022
Forecast
2022
to 2027
2027
to 2032
70
38%
25%
20%
18
20%
15%
12%
10%
5%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
* 54 emerging economies
19
22%
47%
70%
Advanced-Advanced
63%
69%
Overall, air transport growth during the last few years has
been highly dependent on the emerging markets, which
have regularly grown at a double digit year-over-year
rate. Since 2007, passenger capacity offered to/from/
S
ince 2007, air travel has grown 55% in emerging economies
Source: OAG, Airbus
To/from/within
160
ASKs
150
130
120
60%
To/from/within
advanced economies (31)
110
Advanced-Developing
50%
+55%
To/from/within
emerging economies (54)
140
To/from/within
ASKs
+4%
100
90
40%
24%
Advanced-Emerging
80
2007
30%
22%
10%
12%
Emerging-Emerging
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
0%
1993
2010
2011
2012
Developing-Emerging
10%
1992
2009
Developing-Developing
18%
14%
20%
2008
n
early 3,000 country pairs now served with scheduled air transport
Source: OAG, Airbus
S
trong decrease of cost per unit of traffic helping to lower air fares
Source: ICAO, Airbus
20
2,500
15
2,000
10
1,500
1,000
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
500
1981
1980
20
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
21
180
8%
160
7%
140
6%
120
History
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
0%
1998
0
1996
1%
1994
20
1992
2%
1990
40
1988
3%
1986
60
1984
4%
1982
80
1980
100
5%
Forecast
8.1%
Oil supply
shocks reduce
demand growth
3.0%
Low prices
support
demand
growth
Emerging market
demand boom
tempered by rising
prices and
economic recession
1.5%
Emerging market
demand and
economic recovery
1.3%
1.5%
0.8%
2001-2010
2011-2020
2021-2030
-0.8%
-1%
-2%
Slowing population
growth and structural
changes slow oil growth
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
History
Forecast
he Great Revival: the US has become the biggest source of growth in liquids production
T
in recent years
2.4
1.5
million
barrels per day growth
in US production
from 2008 to 2012
This trend in oil prices and its translation into an increasing share of airline operating costs, together with the
volatile nature of fuel prices, has meant that the focus of airlines and manufacturers has been to minimise
fuel burn and costs. Manufacturers like Airbus invest the majority of their R&T spending on reducing fuel
burn. In recent years airlines have focused on reducing seat mile costs by purchasing larger aircraft and even
converting existing orders to larger types or variants or densifying existing aircraft cabins.
All of these economic and industry drivers, and many more not mentioned here, are used in our traffic
forecast in an attempt to correlate them with historical and future air traffic developments. By doing so, we
hope to derive a more comprehensive and detailed understanding of the factors driving our industry.
1.0
0.5
22
Colombia
China
Nigeria
* Liquids include crude oils, condensate, natural gas liquids, biofuels, GTL and CTL
Qatar
Canada
Iraq
Russia
Saudi Arabia
United States
0.0
23
Market drivers
2.5
3.7
5.3
6.9
8.3
9.3
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
61%
It is well known that economic growth is a key factor when explaining air traffic growth. However, forecasters
will often look to demographic trends as another explanatory variable, as these also play a major role in air
traffic evolution: population growth, urbanisation and new middle-class emergence in developing countries
are all factors that explain why and how frequently people travel. Another lever of air traffic is the increasing
connectivity between people, between regions. At first, it can be viewed as a consequence of economic
growth but it is also a facilitator: directly with the multiplication of new routes and the increasing capacity
in airports which extend the supply for future journeys; and indirectly by stimulating the economy through
infrastructure investments and the business they attract.
2050
2045
Urban
2040
Rural
2035
Air traffic
1955
1950
2030
1960
1965
2025
1970
10
8
billions
1975
2020
Connectivity
1980
2015
1985
Demography
Economy
2010
1990
1995
24
2000
2005
25
E
volution of the relationship between Share of urban population and GDP per capita
by region 1980-2011
Source: OECD, Airbus
North America
40,000
Dhaka
30,000
25,000
20,000
Beijing
New Delhi
15,000
10,000
Tokyo
New York
Shanghai
Mexico City
5,000
Middle East & North Africa
Mumbai
Latin America
& Caribbean
Karachi
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sao Paulo
20%
40%
60%
80%
Urban Share (%)
Rank
Rank
New York
1 Tokyo
Tokyo
2 Delhi
London
3 Shanghai
Paris
4 Mumbai
Moscow
5 Mexico City
Buenos Aires
6 New York
Chicago
7 Sao Paulo
Kolkata
8 Dhaka
Shanghai
9 Beijing
Osaka 10
10 Karachi
Los Angeles 11
11 Lagos
Berlin 12
12 Kolkata
Philadelphia 13
13 Manila
Rio de Janeiro 14
Global Middle-Class*
(Millions of people)
5,000
3,576
15 Shenzhen
Mexico City 16
16 Buenos Aires
Mumbai 17
17 Guangzhou
Detroit 18
18 Istanbul
Boston 19
19 Cairo
Cairo 20
20 Kinshasa
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
757
x2
Other
3,526
x4
Asia-Pacific
4,000
3,000
2,228
2,000
432
578
2,038
856
1,000
14 Los Angeles
Saint Petersburg 15
5,211
265
262
253
675
698
675
2012
2022
2032
7,100
7,800
8,400
32%
46%
62%
North America
Europe & CIS
World population
% of world population
2025
* Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)
26
27
T
op 10 tourism destinations (millions)
1,200
France
100,000
10,000
United States
1,000
China
Middle east
800
50,000
5,000
600
1,000
Spain
Africa
Italy
Americas
400
Asia-Pacific
200
Turkey
Germany
United Kingdom
Russian Federation
10,000
2009
2020
2030
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
10
2012
2011
Malaysia
Americas
17%
Middle
East
4%
Africa
3%
20
40
60
80
100
Not specified
1%
USA
1
China
Europe
53%
Asia-Pacific
22%
0.1
India
0.01
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Reasons to travel
According to the World Tourism Organisation, a billion
people travelled outside their own country in 2012, mainly
by air (52%) and for leisure or visiting friends and relatives
(78%), this number will nearly double to 1.9 billion by
2032, according to estimates.
15%
Business/
Professional
7%
Not specified
28
27%
51%
Leasure/Recreation
/Holidays
24%
Business
76%
Leisure
29
Millions
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Pacific
2.0
North America
1.5
1.0
0.5
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1975
1976
0.0
Africa
(million)
-30
-20
-10
10
20
30
40
50
7million
International students by 2020
North America
Latin America
e-visa
2%
No visa
18%
17%
17%
Africa
Origin
30
8%
77% 75%
6%
64%
Traditional visa
Destination
16%
Visa on arrival
or e-visa
(2008-2010)
2008
2010
2012
31
Connectivity
demand for air travel
Network
development
Number of airports served by 100-seater aircraft and above and number of flights
2,000
1,800
Number of airports
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
Number of flights
(thousands)
600
400
200
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
Air traffic has grown at a steady pace over the last 20 years. Since 1992, air traffic, as measured by revenue
passenger kilometres (RPK), has grown 4.7% annually.
Evolution of long-haul and short-haul traffic (seats offered), 1990-2012, Index 100 = 1990*
300
250
1990-2012
Long-haul
200
CAGR
+4.2%
150
1990-2012
Short-haul
CAGR
100
+2.9%
50
2012
0
2010
2008
Source: The economic value of Sydney airport - Deloitte Access Economics, Airbus
2006
T
he impact one airport can have
2004
2002
2000
1998
1987
1996
1982
1994
1977
1992
1972
1990
32
33
Over the last 20 years, air traffic growth has been possible
through more frequent departures, which have increased
44% since 1992; through an increase in the number of
non-stop city pairs, which have grown 47% since1992,
and through larger aircraft, whose average capacity grew
28% over the same period.
1,400
1982-1992
1,200
1972-1982
1,000
800
Number
of airlines
2002-2012
500
+50%
450
+15%
400
+55%
350
300
+35%
250
600
250
200
150
400
Flights
Capacity
28 %
100
50
50
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
0
1972
Routes
150
100
200
1974
ASK
200
Average long-haul ASK per airline has increased by 50% over the last 10 years.
0
2012
Long-haul
160
Short-haul
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
0
2000
1998
28%
S
hort-haul and long-haul networks have developed differently since 2000
1996
1994
1992
1990
2010
1988
2008
1986
2006
1984
2004
1982
2002
1980
2000
1978
1998
1976
1996
1974
1994
1972
1992
2012
34
35
a
irlines targeting more resilient new routes
Source: OAG, Airbus
70%
66%
PRC
Asia
Africa
68%
64%
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
60%
8%
1974
62%
1972
9%
South America
CIS
Canada
USA
Australia
Middle East
10%
Europe
11%
Japan
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
1%
2%
3%
4%
CAGR GDP, 2012-2032
5%
6%
New route development typically slows as markets mature: More new routes involving
emerging economies
Note: Domestic O&D city pairs with more than 40 daily passengers in 2012. Size of the bubble represents 2012 daily passengers
36
25,000
DROPPED
between
1992 and 2012
20,000
15,000
10,000
NEW
between
1992 and 2012
3.5
3
2.5
13,823
-6,041
12,494
20,276
5,000
0
Advanced-Emerging
Emerging-Emerging
Domestic USA
Domestic Australia
Domestic India
1.5
1992
2012
1
1972
1982
1992
2002
2012
2022
2032
37
CITIES WITH MORE THAN 10,000 DAILY LONG-HAUL PASSENGERS IN 2012 AND 2032
2012
TRAFFIC BETWEEN MEGA-CITIES IN 2032 WILL BE HIGHER THAN TOTAL LONG-HAUL TRAFFIC TODAY
2012
42
2032
89
Aviation
Megacities
0.8M
2.2M
Daily Passengers:
Long Haul traffic
to/from/via
Mega-Cities traffic
93%
of long-haul traffic
>42 (Mega-cities) on routes
to/from/via
%
Mega-cities & cities
>89 (cities)
99
26 million
67 million
Monthly
Passengers
Monthly
Passengers
Traffic between
secondary cities
2032
Traffic between Mega-Cities
and secondary cities
Traffic between 2032
Mega-Cities
Traffic between
2012 Mega-Cities
Note: Surface is proportional to traffic on this chart - Long-haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic.
38
39
03
Traffic
forecast
T
he World economy will progressively get back to its long-term potential in 2014
Source: IHS Global Insight (January 2013), Airbus
4%
CIS
3%
Central America
Africa
2%
Middle East
1%
South America
traffic forecast
0%
Indian Sub
Europe
-1%
Asia
-2%
North America
PRC
-3%
-4%
Air transport continues to be a growth industry, resilient to external shocks, as it has been since the start
of the jet age. The industrys resilience is illustrated in the rapid recovery of world passenger traffic after
the 2008-2009 economic downturn. Over the period 2009-2012, world passenger traffic, as measured by
Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK), has grown at an average 5.9% annually, above the 4.1% observed
during 2000-2008.
Oil Crisis
Oil Crisis
Asian
Crisis
Gulf Crisis
WTC
Attack SARS
2008
2009
2010
2011
Financial
Crisis
5.0
2012
2013
2014
World average
Since 2000
61%
4.0
3.0
A
lmost 50% of the total RPK traffic growth in 2012 came from the PRC, South East Asia
and Middle East
Source: Airbus
2.0
1.0
0.0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
5.5
Other
42
5.4
Middle East
South East Asia
5.3
PRC
5.2
5.1
2011
2012
*Traffic from/to/within the region Intercontinental traffic: 50% allocated to each region
43
0
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
merging regions will drive the World traffic growth, but advanced economies
E
will remain foremost
+6.8%
2032
41%
2031
Emerging-Emerging
2030
28
2029
+2.6%
2028
29%
2027
Advanced-Advanced
2026
2012
43
2025
+4.9%
2024
30%
2023
Advanced-Emerging
2022
+5.1%
29
2021
2012-2022
20 years
World annual traffic growth
2020
12
10
E
merging markets will drive traffic growth
2019
traffic forecast
world annual
traffic growth
2018
+4.4%
14
+4.7%
2017
2022-2032
2016
16
20 years
Airbus
GMF 2013
2015
ICAO
total traffic
2014
2013
Source: Airbus
10
8
Mature
6
4
2
0
2012
*Traffic from/to/within the region Intercontinental traffic: 50% allocated to each region
44
2032
20-year CAGR
Domestic PRC
Domestic USA
Intra Western Europe
Western Europe |} USA
Asia |} Western Europe
Domestic India
Asia |} PRC
Domestic Brazil
Intra Asia
Western Europe |} Middle East
Western Europe |} South America
Domestic Asia
Asia |} Middle East
Western Europe |} PRC
Indian Sub |} Middle East
Asia |} USA
PRC |} USA
Central Europe |} Western Europe
South America |} USA
Indian Sub |} USA
7.0%
1.9%
2.9%
3.0%
4.3%
9.8%
6.2%
7.0%
6.1%
4.8%
4.8%
5.7%
8.0%
5.7%
6.1%
4.2%
6.5%
5.9%
5.3%
6.6%
2012
2032
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2012-2032 billions RPK
45
20-year CAGR
traffic forecast
Domestic India
Indian Sub |} South America
Indian Sub |} PRC
Africa Sub Sahara |} Middle East
Middle East |} South America
Asia |} Indian Sub
Middle East |} South Africa
Middle East |} Russia
Central Europe |} Middle East
Asia |} Middle East
North Africa |} PRC
Africa Sub Sahara |} Japan
PRC |} Russia
CIS |} PRC
Middle East |} PRC
North Africa |} South Africa
Japan |} Middle East
Central America |} South America
Africa Sub Sahara |} CIS
Indian Sub |} South Africa
2012
2032
50
100
150
200
9.8%
9.6%
9.1%
8.9%
8.9%
8.7%
8.5%
8.5%
8.3%
8.0%
8.0%
7.8%
7.7%
7.7%
7.7%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
250
300
350
2012-2032 billions RPK
% of 2012
world RPK
20-year
CAGR
Asia - Pacific
29%
5.5%
34%
Europe
26%
3.8%
22%
25%
3.0%
18%
8%
7.1%
12%
5%
6.0%
7%
4%
5.8%
4%
3%
5.1%
3%
North America
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2012
2032
Middle East
Latin America
CIS
Africa
46
the 17% they represent today. Regionally, some shorthaul markets such as the Intra-Europe or Domestic
ASEAN for instance, are expected to have greater low
cost market presence, potentially taking a 60% share of
the short-haul market on these flows by 2032.
However, it is clear that whether considered low cost
or full service, airlines are taking the best from each
others models. This makes a clear differentiation more
difficult in some cases, particularly as we project 20
years into the future.
g
lobal network carriers are the largest in 2012, but low-cost carriers are the fastest
growing between 2012 and 2032
2012 and 2032 share of World RPK traffic by airline type
Small Network
21%
Charter
20 years
+4.7%
world annual
traffic growth
% of 2032
world RPK
3% 4%
Major Network
10%
3%
4%
4%4%
9%
LCCs
21%
17%
62%
59%
Global network
2012
2032
47
04
Demand for
passenger
aircraft
Single-Aisle
more range, more seats
Today, there are nearly 12,600 Single-Aisle aircraft serving as a key element of the worlds aviation network,
enabling journeys to take place quickly and efficiently around countries and regions, as well as feeding the
hubs who themselves enable journeys between continents. They represent 78% of the total commercial
airline fleet of aircraft over 100 seats.
By 2032, the number of aircraft will more than double to more than 24,600 aircraft. Some 20,242 of these will come
from new deliveries between now and 2032 with around 40% replacing older aircraft and around 60% targeting new
growth in the industry. A large number of these deliveries will come from new more fuel efficient aircraft like the new
A320neo. This variant delivers 15% lower fuel burn through the continuing application of new technology at the right
time, specifically through aerodynamic and engine improvements. Geographically, North America and Europe will drive
the demand, as they look to replace their aging fleets. These two regions combined will account for 46% of the overall
demand for new Single-Aisle aircraft. Asia, with its growing inter-regional and domestic networks and demand will also
take a significant share of the market with 34% of Single-Aisle demand.
20,000
Growth
12,013
15,000
12,589
Replacement
8,229
5,000
4,360
3,039
210
20%
5,928
23%
6,912
150
1982
1992
2002
31%
3,179
125
2012
1,000
5%
1,000
19%
1,184
7%
100
1,500
2032
Beginning 2013
New
deliveries
20,242
10,000
175
In 30 years, the average short-haul aircraft capacity increased from 129 to 151 seats
Short haul operations frequency distribution index vs. distance and aircraft capacity
24,602
25,000
2,000
10%
3,000
15%
4,000
20%
5,000
25%
6,000
30%
7,000
35%
500
Europe
Total market
4,584 units
~$1.80
trillion
North America
0
0
75
100
150
225
75
100
150
225
75
100
150
225
75
100
150
225
4,676 units
Aircraft capacity
Low number
of operations
50
High number
of operations
23%
23%
World
20,242
units
34%
AsiaPacific
6,809 units
Latin
America
9%
1,794 units
4%
CIS
4%
3%
871 units
Middle East
779 units
Africa
729 units
51
Twin-Aisle
Middle East
875 units
North America
783 units
Latin America
449 units
The future importance of this segment of aircraft is clear: not only because it will generate value from aircraft
deliveries over the next 20 years, but because of the effort aircraft manufacturers will make to deliver aircraft, with
the latest technologies, meeting airline demand, which has already created a significant backlog for these types.
13%
15%
Europe
World
6,779
1,034 units
Africa
12%
6%
3%
3%
213 units
CIS
192 units
units
48%
Fleet size
7,666
8,000
Total market
7,000
6,000
AsiaPacific
Growth
4,267
5,000
4,000
New
deliveries
3,233 units
~$1.82
trillion
6,779
3,399
3,000
Replacement
2,512
2,000
1,000
887
A330 and 787 compete today. But, aircraft in the 350400 category will still represent nearly 2,100 units over
the next 20 years, a segment where the A350-1000XWB
and other competing types will meet demand in the years
to come.
2032
Beginning 2013
779
400
1,306
350
2,256
300
2,438
250
500
52
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
53
In 3 hours
700
50%
600
North
America
of the flights
500
In 8 hours
400
90%
of the flights
300
Europe
100
150
Singapore
Lufthansa
Emirates
100
Singapore
Qantas
Malaysian
Emirates
British Airways
Thai
Singapore
Malaysian
Emirates
Air France
Thai
Emirates
50
Singapore
Qantas
Korean
Emirates
Singapore
China Southern
Qantas
Malaysian
Emirates
Thai
China Southern Air France
Singapore
Air France
Thai
Singapore
Lufthansa
Thai
Singapore
Qantas
Malaysian
Emirates
British Airways
Dubai
Singapore
London
Heathrow
Paris-CDG
Bangkok
Sydney
Los
Angeles
Narita
Frankfurt
Hong
Kong
23:00-23:50
22:00-22:50
21:00-21:50
20:00-20:50
18:00-18:50
19:00+19:50
17:00-17:50
16:00-16:50
15:00-15:50
14:00-14:50
13:00-13:50
12:00-12:50
Total market
AsiaPacific
11:00-11:50
10:00-10:50
08:00-08:50
07:00-07:50
06:00-06:50
05:00-05:50
04:00-04:50
03:00-03:50
02:00-02:50
200
01:00-01:50
Qantas
Emirates
00:00-00:50
250
200
09:00-09:50
Because the Airbus GMF is based on demand rather than a pure supply model, it identified the need for
Very Large Aircraft (VLA) many years ago. It is only today, with more than 100 aircraft in operation, aircraft
like the A380, that the benefits of this segment have become more than analysts predicted. VLAs are truly
connecting the world, whether major hub or secondary city, with well over 100 flights a day carrying more
than a million passengers every month. Many of these passengers have chosen to fly on a VLA due to the
comfort and overall passenger experience this category of aircraft can provide.
Middle
East
622 units
~$519
billion
345 units
26%
Over 150 flights per day carrying more than a million passengers per month.
Today, some airlines are operating the A380 for example,
at an extremely comfortable 407 seats. Offering airlines
the opportunity to pamper their high yield passengers,
and at the same time giving passengers at the back of
the plane more space and comfort than other aircraft
types. Airline customers have chosen various seating
configurations from this luxurious arrangement, right
up to single class layouts of 840 seats, 13 less than
the maximum capacity of 853 seats. This gives airlines
the flexibility to mix comfort, revenue and cost per seat
to more precisely match their own distinct brands
and business models. Today, A380 configurations are
typically between 500-520 seats, and include three
and four class configurations.
54
46%
Europe
World
1,334
units
209 units
16%
2% 5%
2% 3%
North America
62 units
Africa
Latin America
28 units
36 units
CIS
32 units
55
C
oncentration of flights between Mega-Cities
August 2013 Schedules Source: OAG, Airbus
A380
London to Singapore
6:00
12:0
18:0
Others
6:00
24:0
Departure time
London
Singapore to London
6:00
12:0
18:0
6:00
24:0
Departure time
56
57
05
Demand
by region
Asia-Pacific
S
easonality is increasing on the PRC-Pacific flow
Source: OAG, Airbus
Billions of ASKs
5.0
+30%
4.5
4.0
+5%
3.5
+10%
+27%
+17%
+9%
3.0
2.5
2.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
demand by region
After a decade of tremendous growth, the Asia-Pacific region is recognised as one of the worlds major
economic centres. Taking in the five biggest economies in Asia, it is actually the most important in
terms of GDP, ahead of North America and the EU. While a number of countries in the region can be
considered emerging, they are by no means small or insignificant. In fact, they contribute meaningfully
to the strength, diversity and future growth that the region as a whole represents.
Projected future global network development in AsiaPacific will have an important role in shaping the
future global network as a result of the dynamic air
travel market in the region. Examining just the longhaul routes, more than 50% of the new routes created
between 2013 and 2032 will be connected to AsiaPacific. This gives a flavour of the dynamic nature of air
transportation in the region.
100%
22%
North America
49%
12%
Africa
7%
CIS
50%
51%
39%
31%
Through Asia-Pacific
Europe
0%
* Route length > 2000nm
12%
Within Asia-Pacific
27%
1%
Middle East
Latin America
More than 50% of new long-haul routes will touch the Asia-Pacific region.
60
61
Traffic between Asia-Pacific and emerging regions will increase at a high rate
6.1%
4,000
2012-2032 CAGR
3,500
From Asia-Pacific
to emerging regions
3,000
2,500
4.6%
1,500
500
Europe
North America
Asia-Pacific
4.6%
5.1%
World
Domestic
and Intra-Regional
Asia-Pacific
From Asia-Pacific
to Western regions
2,000
1,000
Results
6.1%
5.1%
5.1%
7.0%
6.9%
6.7%
Africa
CIS
5.1%
6.5%
2012
2032
0
Europe
Latin
America
Middle
East
North
America
5.8%
6.3%
4.4%
4.7%
20232032
20-year
growth
CIS
Intra
Asia-Pacific
6.7%
Latin
America
6.5%
Africa
Middle East
6.9%
7.0%
20132022
Fleet size*
250
Asia-Pacific
Europe
North America
12,000
200
demand by region
10,000
150
+4.5%
8,000
7,000
per annum
6,000
8,000
5,000
Growth
6,514
6,000
100
4,650
New
deliveries
10,664
4,000
Replacement
50
4,150
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
62
1,,400
1600
Range (nm)
2,220
4,000
1,013
3,000
622
2,000
2,000
0
6,809
11,164
1,000
Stay in service & Remarketed
500
2032
Beginning 2013
ECONOMY**
TRAFFIC**
Intra-regional
& domestic
Real
GDP
Real Trade
4.5%
Urban population
6.5%
6.1%
Inter-regional
1.9%
5.5%
* Passenger aircraft 100 seats
Singleaisle
FLEET*
Total
traffic
Fleet in service
5.8%
4,650
Beginning 2013
In 2032
11,164
20-year
new aircraft
deliveries
10,664
** 2013-2032 CAGR
63
Europe
Utilisation
(annual flight hours per aircraft)
3,500
3,400
3,300
3,200
3,100
3,000
2,900
2,800
2,700
2,600
2,500
1995
1996
1997
1998 1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Except during crisis, European airlines keep increasing their aircraft average utilisation.
demand by region
Although the long-term trend of a more equitable distribution of global wealth will reduce the weight of
developed countries in the future, Europe, whose airlines contributed 26% of world-wide ASK in 2012,
is a heavy weight of the air transport market. Its in-service fleet is forecast to represent 20% of the worlds
total by 2032.
Economy
80%
2007
Market trends
The European air transport market landscape has
changed dramatically in the last 15 years. Low-cost
carriers have not only stimulated demand on short-haul
markets, but also captured some market share from flag
carriers and charter operators. Traditional carriers have in
many cases, adjusted their operating mode to take the
best from the LCCs recipe: increased aircraft utilisation,
unbundled fares, etc. This quest for a lower cost base
has also paved the way for more airline alliances, mergers
and acquisitions. Given the financial difficulties some
64
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
2012
CDG
LHR
MAD
AMS
FRA
MUC
European majors have improved their flight schedule connectivity wherever possible.
While the efficiency index increased at most European
hubs, it appears that flight schedule connectivity at
the most congested airports, London Heathrow and
Frankfurt International, hasnt improved over time. This is
mainly due to the difficulty of optimising a flight schedule
with extreme slot constraints, whilst at the same time
accommodating market growth.
Congestion at major European airports has been a long
65
Results
Asia-Pacific
Domestic
and Intra-Regional
Europe
4.6%
World
Europe
3.3%
5.1%
4.4%
4.7%
4.2%
3.8%
4.0%
20132022
20232032
20-year
growth
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
North
America
3.1%
CIS
5.8%
Latin
America
4.4%
Middle East
5.0%
Africa
4.6%
France |} Japan
Hong Kong |} United Kingdom
Germany |} Thailand
+3.1%
Fleet size*
Germany |} Japan
8,000
per annum
7,127
4,584
5,000
demand by region
6,000
A very concentrated market
Source: Sabre Global Demand Data, Airbus
30%
29%
Others
LON-SYD
11%
17%
LON-BNE
LON-MEL
13%
LON-PER
66
Growth
3,264
3,863
4,000
New
deliveries
5,827
Replacement
4,000
3,000
720
2,000
2,563
2,000
1,300
0
Singleaisle
2032
Beginning 2013
ECONOMY**
TRAFFIC**
Intra-regional
& domestic
Real
GDP
Real Trade
1.8%
Urban population
3.6%
3.3%
Inter-regional
0.5%
4.3%
* Passenger aircraft 100 seats
209
1,000
Stay in service
& Remarketed
314
FLEET*
Total
traffic
Fleet in service
4.0%
3,863
Beginning 2013
In 2032
7,127
20-year
new aircraft
deliveries
5,827
** 2013-2032 CAGR
67
North America
Where mature means big
Market Trends
There are several trends in North America that cannot be
ignored, such as the pending replacement demand for
ageing aircraft and the on-going wave of consolidation.
These two trends have a large impact on how airlines
will purchase aircraft and satisfy demand in coming
years: one driving demand mostly for Single-Aisle aircraft
and the other driving up-gauging. In recent GMFs, we
have discussed these trends and how they will affect
our industry. There are three other trends that we have
not as emphasised that are worth exploring; capacity
management/profitability, pockets of growth in mature
markets and the contribution of Visiting Friends and
Relatives (VFR) traffic in North America.
Over the last ten years, airlines in North America
have given a great deal of focus to increasing
profitability through stricter capacity management
and revenue from ancillary services. As an example
of their success in ancillary revenue, carriers
in the US have increased their revenue from baggage fees
by 650% over the last five years; reaching $3.5 billion
in revenue last year. Capacity management has also
been key. Focusing on increasing aircraft utilisation
and increasing load factors means that airlines in North
America were able to absorb growth while their fleet size
has remained relatively stable. However, the amount of
demand by region
The importance of aviation to North Americans and the importance of North America to the aviation industry
today and in 20 years is undeniable. There are more than 800 million passengers originating and/or ending
their trips in North America, driving a 29% share of all world passengers in 2012. Even with slower growth
rates in North America compared to emerging markets, a small amount of growth in such a huge market has
a profound impact. Over the last ten years, origin and destination (O&D) passengers to/from/within North
America has grown at a rate of 1.9% per year. If in 2013 O&D passengers grow again by 1.9%. The delta in
number of passengers between 2013 and 2012 is about one and a half times the population of New York
City. Airbus recognises the great importance of this region and has displayed its commitment this year by
starting work on the new final assembly line in Mobile, Alabama.
82%
Average load factor
for the regions airlines
North American carriers aircraft utilization, expressed in ASKs per aircraft in service
Millions of ASKs per aircraft
900
800
Economy
The economy of North America is moving in the right
direction: unemployment rates remain below that of
other mature markets and the general economy is again
seeing growth. Unemployment rates are expected to
return to below 6% per year by 2016 and continue its
decline through 2020. Over the same period, private
consumption, which represents around 70% of the US
GDP is expected to rise at a rate of 2.3% over the next
700
Twin-aisle
600
500
400
Single-aisle
300
200
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Over the last 20 years, ASKs per aircraft in service have grown by 21% and 15% for Twin-Aisle
and Single-Aisle aircraft respectively.
68
69
Results
TOTAL RPK TRAFFIC GROWTH
North America
Europe
3.1%
World
Domestic
and Intra-Regional
CAGR 2002-2012
% of 2012 international traffic
North America
5.1%
1.9%
6.5/1.1
3.9/17.1
North
Africa
Caribbean
5.9/0.6
Central America
with Mexico
3.4/16.0
South America
Sub-Saharan
Africa*
6.3/8.5
Middle
East
5.0/4.6
Latin
America
4.6%
7.6/1.3
South
Africa
demand by region
Africa
Middle East
4.7%
6.5%
20232032
20-year
growth
+2.2%
per annum
6,000
4,104
4,000
4,676
5,000
6,394
4,000
2,290
Asia-Pacific
5.1%
Growth
New
deliveries
Replacement
3,000
5,521
600
2,000
3,231
2,000
183
62
1,000
Stay in service & Remarketed
873
0
Singleaisle
2032
Beginning 2013
ECONOMY**
TRAFFIC**
Intra-regional
& domestic
Real
GDP
Real Trade
2.5%
Urban population
4.7%
1.9%
Inter-regional
1.0%
4.4%
* Passenger aircraft 100 seats
20132022
Fleet size*
6,000
70
3.5%
8,000
3.3%
The top ten fastest growing international O&D flows for North America represent more than 55%
of all international O&D traffic.
3.6%
PRC
6.8/3.2
2.9/0.4
4.7%
4.8%
CIS
Indian Sub-continent
7.5/3.7
4.4%
CIS
FLEET*
Total
traffic
Fleet in service
3.5%
4,104
Beginning 2013
In 2032
6,394
20-year
new aircraft
deliveries
5,521
** 2013-2032 CAGR
71
Middle East
Economy
The Middle East is a very diverse region, with some of the
fastest growing countries in terms of GDP and some of the
most troubled. Overall, the Middle East is forecast to have
slower economic growth in 2013 (up 2.6% over 2012)
due to lower fuel prices and continued weak demand
due to the on-going economic difficulties of some major
importers. But, strong growth is expected to return in
2014 with IHS Global Insight forecasting an average of
4.1% annual growth from 2014 to 2020. Over the full 20year period, almost all of the countries of the Middle East
demand by region
The last three decades have been witness to the tremendous changes in the Middle East region. From
the hot sands of the gulf desert striking new skyscrapers have risen into cloudless skies, artificial islands
have been created, major business centres developed, leisure areas for booming tourism, highways
connecting expanding cities, with major airlines and airports on a global scale providing the connectivity
and capacity needed for this dynamic region to continue its rise. The Middle East is a very diverse region,
with some of the fastest growing markets and economies in the world in some countries, and on-going
economic and geo-political difficulties in others.
Despite some difficulties, many governments in the
region, are aware of the rising importance of aviation
to the world economy and to their own. They have
made its development a cornerstone of strategic
plans to establish the region as a key element of
globalisation and in the worlds current and future
aviation network. The result of this voluntary policy is
the impressive growth of the Middle Eastern carriers
who enjoyed a remarkable 8.2% traffic growth rate in
2012. Major carriers have confirmed their resolution
to pursue ambitious commercial strategies to
expand both their short and long-haul networks by
confirming orders for latest new and efficient aircraft,
including the A320neo, A350XWB and A380.
If the unique geographic situation of the region is
enabling the local carriers to be best positioned to
capture and satisfy travellers coming from all over
the world, with intra-regional air transportation also
growing.
70
60
50
40
30
800
20
JFK
10
0
GLA
AMS HAM
MAN BHX DUS
MUC
LHR LGW
FRA
VIE
CDGZRH
VCE
MXP
FCO
MAD
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
72
ISB
LHE
DEL
KHI
BOM
ADD
LOS
CMB
MLE
NBO
400
PEK
ICN
NRT
PVG
CAN
DAC
HKG
BKK
MNL
KUL
SIN
CGK
MRU
JNB
This has been very clearly displayed in the rapid expansion of LCC operations and the capture of traffic by LCCs, both within
the region and to/from the region. This is largely driven by a young and dynamic population, many sharing the same language
and eager to seek opportunities for work and leisure both abroad and within the region. The traffic within Middle Eastern
countries has doubled during the last decade. Both international and regional air transport are expected to keep growing,
with billions of dollars being invested in airlines and airports to meet increasing demand and regional aspirations.
IST
CAI
600
2006
SVO
DME
200
PER
SYD
78 distinct routes departing from a Middle Eastern airport were offering more than 1,000 daily seats in 2012.
73
Results
TOTAL RPK TRAFFIC GROWTH
Middle East
Domestic
and Intra-Regional
North
America
World
Middle East
6.5%
5.2%
7.3%
Europe
5.5%
5.0%
70
Arrivals (millions)
60
Latin
America
50
8.3%
6.4%
5.1%
CIS
4.4%
7.8%
4.7%
40
Africa
30
Receipts ($billions)
20
Asia-Pacific
7.6%
7.0%
10
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Fleet development
demand by region
20132022
Middle East twin aisle fleet multiplied by 2.5 in the last 10 years
Fleet size*
+5.5%
3,000
2,500
900
2,606
Growth
1,708
1,500
898
370
345
500
400
300
291
200
Stay in service
& Remarketed
100
607
2032
Beginning 2013
310
Single-aisle
800
600
Replacement
500
Widebody
New
deliveries
1,999
1,000
505
700
2,000
20-year
growth
779
800
per annum
Aircraft units
1,000
20232032
Singleaisle
300
290
600
ECONOMY**
TRAFFIC**
FLEET*
280
400
270
260
200
250
240
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
The twin aisle fleet is growing in number and in size, with the average seat count increasing by 12%
in the last 10 years.
74
Intra-regional
& domestic
Real
GDP
Real Trade
3.7%
Urban population
3.8%
5.2%
Inter-regional
2.0%
6.5%
* Passenger aircraft 100 seats
Total
traffic
Fleet in service
6.4%
898
Beginning 2013
In 2032
2,606
20-year
new aircraft
deliveries
1,999
** 2013-2032 CAGR
75
Latin America
A vibrant region with vibrant growth
6%
Latin
America
US &
Canada
Africa
China
World
average
5%
4%
South-East
Asia
3%
2%
India
Middle
East
1%
0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Bubble diameter proportional to real GDP at PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) in bn. US$ in 2020
demand by region
Latin America has a long tradition in aviation. With aviation links to other parts of the world going back to
its earliest days. One of the pioneering aviation companies, Aropostale, founded in Toulouse in 1918,
had regular flights between Toulouse and Rio de Janeiro as early as 1927, which later were extended
to Argentina and Chile. Aviation has developed significantly in recent years in Mexico, Argentina, Chile,
Colombia and, notably, Brazil. There is no doubt of either the importance or the need for aviation for the
people of Latin America. This is particularly true when one considers the long distances that separate the
southern most point, Tierra del Fuego, in Argentina, and the northern most point in Tijuana, Mexico; or when
we think of the need to navigate across the Andes Mountains, the Atacama Desert or the Amazon Basin.
In the future, Latin America will continue to be a successful story in aviation. Benefitting from sound macro-economic
fundamentals, growing tourism and a high level of urbanisation, the regions long-term perspective is good. With 5.3%
annual air traffic growth expected over the next 20 years, the region outperforms the forecast for world air transport
expansion at 4.7%. As IATA noted recently concerning Latin America: the economic potential of this vast and varied
geography can only be realised with a successful aviation industry.
u
rbanisation levels in latin america are near the highest in the world
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Airbus
76
2011
82%
73%
2020
50%
39%
79%
71%
44%
0%
Africa
Asia
Europe
North
America
Oceania
Latin America
& the Caribbean
77
Results
Latin America
Europe
Domestic
and Intra-Regional
World
4.4%
Latin America
5.7%
6.3%
4.8%
5.1%
4.6%
demand by region
20-year CAGR
Domestic India
Indian Sub |} South America
Indian Sub |} PRC
Arfrica Sub Sahara |} Middle East
Middle East |} South America
Asia |} Indian Sub
Middle East |} South Africa
Middle East |} Russia
Central Europe |} Middle East
Asia |} Middle East
North Africa |} PRC
Africa Sub Sahara |} Japan
PRC |} Russia
CIS |} PRC
Middle East |} PRC
North Africa |} South Africa
Japan |} Middle East
Central America |} South America
Africa Sub Sahara |} CIS
Indian Sub |} South Africa
9.8%
9.6%
9.1%
8.9%
8.9%
8.7%
8.5%
8.5%
8.3%
8.0%
8.0%
7.8%
7.7%
7.7%
7.7%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012
2032
6.4%
5.7%
MiddleEast
Asia-Pacific
8.3%
6.5%
20132022
20232032
Fleet size*
+4.6%
3,000
2,500
20-year
growth
1,794
2,000
2,833
1,800
per annum
1,600
Growth
2,000
1,691
New
deliveries
2,279
1,500
1,142
1,400
1,200
1000
346
800
1,000
600
Replacement
588
500
400
Stay in service
& Remarketed
2032
Beginning 2013
ECONOMY**
TRAFFIC**
Intra-regional
& domestic
Real
GDP
Real Trade
4.0%
Urban population
4.5%
6.3%
Inter-regional
1.2%
103
36
200
554
4.8%
* Passenger aircraft 100 seats
78
4.7%
CIS
Africa
three out of the top 20 fastest growing O&D traffic flows in the world link to Latin America
4.4%
North
America
5.2%
Singleaisle
FLEET*
Total
traffic
Fleet in service
5.2%
1,142
Beginning 2013
In 2032
2,833
20-year
new aircraft
deliveries
2,279
** 2013-2032 CAGR
79
CIS
80%
2015
2010
2005
2000
Share of households
earning more than
each income threshold
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1,000
3,000
5,000
10,000
15,000
demand by region
100: The number of airlines in the CIS region studied by the GMF. Even if in 2012, the 10 biggest airlines
represented more than 70% of the total RPKs produced by the airlines of the region, this number of
airlines and the variety of business models in the region underline the importance of CIS for the worldwide aviation market.
The dynamics of CIS favour a large potential for growth in air transport for the region. From 2000 to 2012,
ASK traffic from/to/within the region increased by almost 10% annually, and real GDP increased by 5.1% per
year on average, which had a positive impact on the economic development of its population.
Combined with this high growth potential, the region is characterised by a large demand for replacement: in
2013, only 53% of the CIS fleet is new generation aircraft, with 72% remarketed aircraft.
25,000
35,000
50,000
75,000
Household yearly income (2005 $ US)
Millions
50
CAGR 2009-2012
8%
CAGR 2000-2008
9%
45
40
35
30
25
Economy
20
15
10
The CIS region is forecast to have strong economic growth up to 2020, despite some countries experiencing difficulties
from the fallout of the global economic situation, particularly from Europe. The fastest economic growth rate is expected
to be in the second and third largest economies in the CIS, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Even with the faster growth in
the smaller economies in the region, Russia is expected to continue to represent more than 70% of the regions GDP in
2032. International trade, a key driver for the region, is expected to grow strongly over the 20 year period with growth
in imports tripling and growth in exports doubling.
80
5
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011E 2012E
81
International tourists will boost Russias economy: from 3% of all exports in 2012 to 4% in 2023
Source: WTTC, Airbus
Visitor exports
Billion 2011 $US
35
56M
31M
Results
TOTAL RPK TRAFFIC GROWTH
30
Europe
25
20
15
CIS
10
5.5%
North
America
4.8%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
World
6.7%
5.1%
2023
5.9%
5.1%
4.4%
4.7%
AsiaPacific
Latin
America
6.7%
5.7%
Africa
Middle East
6.8%
7.8%
Thousands
CIS
5.8%
Domestic
and Intra-Regional
20132022
20232032
20-year
growth
9,000
8,000
Fleet size*
7,000
6,000
Outbound
CAGR 2002-2012
5,000
17.3%
3,000
+4.5%
4,000
2,500
3,000
demand by region
2,000
Inbound
CAGR 2002-2012
1,000
7.6%
0
2002
2012
per annum
2,000
900
800
1,987
1,500
700
Growth
1,095
New
deliveries
1,095
829
1,000
82
500
400
Stay in service
& Remarketed
500
ECONOMY**
TRAFFIC**
Intra-regional
& domestic
Real
GDP
Real Trade
3.3%
Urban population
3.3%
5.5%
Inter-regional
0.3%
44
32
100
2032
Beginning 2013
6.2%
* Passenger aircraft 100 seats
148
200
600
300
892
871
1,000
Singleaisle
FLEET*
Total
traffic
Fleet in service
5.9%
829
Beginning 2013
In 2032
1,987
20-year
new aircraft
deliveries
1,095
** 2013-2032 CAGR
83
Africa
2005-2011
60
CAGR
+6.3%
50
40
30
7.9%
Sub-Saharan Africa
3.5%
North Africa
20
demand by region
Africa is a huge and diverse region, in terms of its people, languages, landscape, history and importantly,
in the way its aviation infrastructure has developed. It has long been a region where analysts have seen a
huge potential for growth in the use of aviation. After all, what better way to get to where you want to go,
either travelling from outside the region or within it, with its large distances, patchy ground transportation
infrastructure and at times difficult terrain. In the past, aviation had its strongest presence in northern and
southern Africa. Then the west of the continent with its large population centres and its eastern region
started to grow strongly. Today, the whole region is seeing positive development, as airlines both from within
Africa and from outside seek to capture growing demand. New airlines are also emerging, who are adopting
the low cost model seeking to further tempt Africa into achieving its aviation potential.
10
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2005-2011
15
CAGR
10
+7.2%
5
0
84
2011
1990
1995
2000
2005
2011
85
Results
2012 traffic to/from and within Africa well above 2000 levels
6.2%
+577%
Europe
Asia/Pacific
Latin
America
CIS
+134%
6.4%
6.8%
Latin
America
Middle
East
+118%
90%
4.4%
6.9%
20132022
20232032
Fleet size*
+4.8%
1,800
1,600
1,540
900
per annum
1,400
Growth
932
1,000
New
deliveries
970
700
600
500
400
608
600
400
38
300
Stay in service
& Remarketed
200
570
200
0
2032
ECONOMY**
TRAFFIC**
Intra-regional
& domestic
Real
GDP
Real Trade
4.4%
Urban population
4.9%
6.2%
Inter-regional
3.1%
58
28
100
5.6%
* Passenger aircraft 100 seats
155
Replacement
Beginning 2013
20-year
growth
729
800
1,200
800
4.7%
1,000
5.1%
4,6%
+86%
5,7%
AsiaPacific
7.6%
Intra-Africa
demand by region
6,4%
5.0%
Middle East
+307%
World
Africa
CIS
+80%
Domestic
and Intra-Regional
4.7%
+49%
North America
Africa
North America
Europe
86
Singleaisle
FLEET*
Total
traffic
Fleet in service
5.7%
608
Beginning 2013
In 2032
1,540
20-year
new aircraft
deliveries
970
** 2013-2032 CAGR
87
06
Demand
for
freighters
Air
freight industry in 2013
Source: ASCEND, Airbus
197
34
798
North
America
Latin
America
Europe
& CIS
22
77
51
339
47
314
15
61
28
56
Fleet
1,645
Asia
Pacific
Middle
East
Africa
There is no disguising that recent years have been very difficult for the freight industry. On a world-wide
basis, freight traffic has stagnated for the last three years. The financial crisis has had a direct impact on
peoples willingness to spend and on international trade growth. In total, world trade has grown at just 2%
in recent years with that growth largely driven by emerging economies. The mature markets, especially
Europe, have been the most negatively impacted by on-going debt issues and as mature markets
have been the biggest consumers of high value products (which tend to use air freight) this has had an
increasingly important knock on effect on air freight. However, air transportation, with 30% of its value,
is still hugely important to world trade.
These issues have caused many to question whether or not there has been a significant long-term shift away from
air freight to other modes. However there are positive signs. The world economy is showing improvement, and as
discussed in the economy chapter, many of the risks we were monitoring last year, whilst not gone completely, have
become less of a concern. This is why Airbus has the view that growth will return to the air freight industry over the
next year.
Customers still value the speed, reliability and quality of air transportation. Even with some on-going trends that we are
monitoring in modal shift and near-sourcing, we believe that industry will continue to value these unique aspects of air
freight. According to the data provided by Seabury, we see no clear trend indicating a modal shift. In fact, the split in
terms of weight carried by aircraft vs shipping (after removing bulk commodities, such as oil and grains) has remained
stable with around 1% of total weight carried by aircraft. In terms of near-sourcing, it is too early to say definitively how
much of an impact this will have on traffic, but what is visible today, is that large multi-national corporations will continue
to strive to optimise their supply chain and manufacturing costs based on global and regional trends.
Traffic today
Even during this difficult period, air freight remains key
in the supply chain of almost every industry in the world.
The speed and reliability offered by main deck freighters
services has a positive impact on the effectiveness and
efficiency of high tech industries for example, who rely
heavily on air cargo. Pharmaceutical businesses use
temperature controlled containers to transport sensitive
bio-chemicals and drugs by air. Flowers, cars parts,
machinery, horses, fruits, mail are all commodities where
air transportation is the only viable option. In 2012, world
traffic in FTKs decreased 3% year on year, with the shift
towards emerging economies continuing. Today, 70% of
air freight traffic is with or between emerging countries,
compared to just 64% 10 years ago.
N
orth America, Asia-Pacific and Europe
combined represents 81% of the air
cargo traffic
Air cargo traffic wheel, FTKs in 2012
North America
Asia
Pacific
Africa
Latin
America
Europe
90
Middle East
CIS
91
10%
30
8%
Emerging markets
6%
World
4%
25
Advanced economies
0%
F
astest growth from traffic between and within emerging regions
Source: IATA, Seabury, US DOT, CAAC, Airbus
10
Forecast
FTKs (billions)
600
History
2030
2026
2022
2018
2015
Q1
2014
2014
Q1
2010
2013
Q1
2006
2012
Q1
2002
2011
Q1
1998
2010
Q1
1994
-2%
2009
Q1
500
20-year
world annual
FTK growth
400
4.8%
Emerging to
Developed
private consumption
300
2032
Emerging markets
6%
1992
200
4%
World
150
2%
100
Advanced economies
0%
50
-2%
0
Advanced
92
Developing
Emerging
World
2009
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2.9%
6.2%
200
5.2%
100
5.3%
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
2028
2032
Forecast
8%
2012
250
CAGR
Growth Rate
2012-2032
Developed to
Emerging
History
industrial production by market
Emerging to
Emerging
Developed to
Developed
300
1996
20
15
2%
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Q1
93
Express
T
he integrators fleet for domestic purposes in the US is shifting for bigger
and more fuel efficient modules
Source: ASCEND, Airbus
250
30%
2.5
2
1.5
20%
0
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
FedEx commences
4%
1%
1983
8%
1981
0
1979
General Cargo
4%
0.5
50
1977
11%
100
Express
20%
5%
150
25%
25%
10%
200
% traffic growth
15%
3.5
Fuel price
400
UPS commences
* Real price
-5%
-7%
-12%
800
Regional
operations
700
94
Small wide-body
< 75t
500
Large wide-body
>75t
400
300
200
100
5,400
5,200
5,000
4,800
4,600
4,400
4,200
4,000
3,800
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
0
600
Fleet evolution
High fuel prices and the crisis are accelerating the
retirement of old freighters which are being replaced by
more fuel efficient aircraft. To stay profitable in a tough
period where demand is weak, carriers are trying to
reduce their costs by all means possible. In addition to
modernising their fleets, airlines are striving to reduce
their unit costs by replacing narrow-body aircraft with
mid-sized aircraft and rationalising their networks, especially
in more mature markets. One of the best examples is the
domestic US fleet, where small wide-bodies are replacing
the old fleet of 727s and DC9s. On the inter-regional and
long-haul markets, range becomes one of the main criteria
600
400
200
Intercontinental
operations
3,600
2012
3,400
2011
3,200
2010
3,000
2009
2,800
2008
Weekly operations
2,600
2007
2,400
-15%
~
8500 weekly scheduled operations are performed by wide-body freighters
2,200
-10%
-20%
-1%
-3%
2,000
-5%
Distance (nm)
95
Fleet in service in 2013: conversion vs new-build. 39% of the freighters are new-build aircraft
Source: ASCEND, Airbus
Converted
Africa
Middle East
North America
Latin America
Results
Asia Pacific
371
New-build
F
reighters fleet in service evolution (2013-2032)
172
37
< 45t
54
26
> 45t
26
108
798/1,062
146
53
28
Mid-Size Freighters
demand for freighters
Large Freighters
Due to the combination of high market demand and
range capability, large freighters are the only freighter
type operating on trans-Pacific routes. They are also the
most popular freighters category on the US-Europe flow
representing 10% of the world traffic, just behind the belly
space of passenger aircraft. The segments growth is mainly
driven by the high density trade lanes forming the tripod
Asia, Europe and North America, which require bigger
aircraft to accommodate the demand. It is forecast that the
fleet of large aircraft will nearly double in the next 20 years.
1,294
Units
1,002
1400
609
800
481
Source: Airbus
380
376
2013
4
2032
687
521
57
2013
2032
Mid-size freighters
2013
15%
22%
21%
21%
30%
24%
6.6%
Europe
& CIS
4.8%
North
America
3.9%
7%
7%
Africa
& Middle
East
6%
6%
5.0%
%
744
Small freighters
96
T
he cargo market centre of gravity is slowly but constantly moving toward the east
2012
229
Middle
East
3%
4%
Indian
Sub-Continent
6.3%
PRC
18%
16%
AsiaPacific
4.1%
Growth
600
400
2013
2032
Africa
5.2%
550
1000
56/89
Latin
America
Latin
America
1200
Asia
Pacific
61/164
77/139
World Fleet
in service
2013: 1,645
2032: 2,905
15
North
America
Small Freighters
314/970
Europe
& CIS
A focus on
200
339/481
147
142
134
138
407
Replacement
114
Stay in service
2032
Large freighters
97
x1,8
2,000
1,500
2,904
1,000
2,905
1,645
500
0
2013
2032
O
ver 870 new-build aircraft will be
required during the next two decades
1,237
Units
1,400
888
Converted
1,200
New built
1,000
824
800
430
600
400
605
200
Small freighters
413
458
Mid-Size freighters
Large freighters
$77billion
Mid-Size
Freighters
$157
billion
Large Freighters
98
99
07
Summary
&
methodology
Summary of results
Passenger Traffic Flow
Passenger Traffic Flow
CAGR 2013-2032
CAGR 2013-2032
6.8%
4.2%
5.3%
6.3%
4.7%
6.6%
5.8%
7.7%
Domestic Asia
5.7%
8.5%
Domestic Australia/NZ
3.1%
8.5%
Domestic Brazil
7.0%
8.9%
Domestic Canada
2.3%
6.7%
Domestic Caribbean
1.3%
6.8%
5.7%
8.0%
4.7%
3.7%
3.5%
6.7%
Asia - Canada
4.4%
5.2%
Domestic CIS
5.4%
7.5%
Asia - Caribbean
4.0%
3.1%
Domestic India
9.8%
5.4%
4.6%
Caribbean - CIS
4.3%
3.3%
5.0%
5.6%
4.8%
Domestic Japan
1.7%
Pacific - PRC
6.2%
Asia - CIS
6.3%
Caribbean - Japan
2.2%
Domestic Mexico
5.0%
Pacific - Russia
5.7%
3.2%
6.1%
5.2%
5.5%
4.4%
2.3%
7.0%
PRC - Russia
7.7%
5.1%
6.4%
5.0%
7.2%
5.8%
6.5%
6.6%
6.4%
6.8%
5.7%
1.9%
5.1%
2.1%
6.7%
5.6%
4.9%
6.1%
5.3%
6.9%
Asia - Japan
Asia - Middle East
Asia - North Africa
Asia - Pacific
Asia - PRC
Asia - Russia
Asia - South Africa
CAGR 2013-2032
Asia - Australia/NZ
102
CAGR 2013-2032
8.7%
2.7%
8.0%
7.4%
5.1%
6.2%
6.4%
6.8%
4.7%
4.4%
2.3%
5.4%
6.1%
4.0%
5.4%
2.4%
7.1%
3.5%
4.2%
3.6%
4.3%
4.7%
Australia/NZ - Canada
4.0%
6.3%
Australia/NZ - Caribbean
4.0%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
6.2%
5.1%
4.8%
6.2%
4.9%
Australia/NZ - CIS
6.0%
2.5%
9.1%
4.3%
5.0%
6.3%
6.8%
5.4%
Australia/NZ - Japan
3.3%
5.2%
7.5%
4.9%
5.8%
5.4%
9.6%
5.9%
4.6%
7.5%
6.6%
7.5%
Australia/NZ - Pacific
4.8%
5.4%
Intra Asia
6.1%
6.9%
Australia/NZ - PRC
6.0%
4.1%
Intra Australia/NZ
3.2%
7.8%
Australia/NZ - Russia
5.6%
6.0%
Intra Caribbean
1.3%
8.9%
5.5%
3.7%
5.2%
7.0%
6.2%
8.3%
5.0%
4.5%
3.7%
4.7%
Intra CIS
6.1%
7.1%
4.3%
3.3%
6.5%
7.1%
Canada - Caribbean
6.0%
6.5%
5.5%
6.0%
6.1%
6.5%
5.5%
7.1%
3.9%
6.0%
Intra Pacific
2.3%
4.7%
Canada - CIS
4.5%
5.4%
5.4%
4.5%
6.4%
4.2%
7.2%
5.2%
Canada - Japan
2.6%
5.9%
2.9%
2.8%
5.6%
5.7%
7.5%
4.8%
4.6%
4.4%
6.8%
4.5%
Canada - Pacific
3.3%
CIS - Japan
5.1%
Japan - Pacific
2.9%
3.1%
Canada - PRC
6.2%
7.2%
Japan - PRC
5.7%
5.7%
Canada - Russia
4.0%
6.5%
Japan - Russia
4.2%
5.6%
4.6%
CIS - Pacific
6.8%
6.6%
4.9%
5.9%
CIS - PRC
7.7%
5.3%
4.8%
2.2%
CIS - Russia
6.3%
3.0%
3.0%
Domestic Turkey
Domestic United States
Domestic Western Europe
Indian Sub Continent - Japan
Indian Sub Continent - Middle East
103
104
CAGR 2013-2032
CAGR 2013-2032
CAGR 2013-2032
CAGR 2013-2032
Africa to Asia
4.9%
5.5%
Intra Europe
4.0%
3.5%
5.7%
CIS to Japan
3.7%
6.6%
6.3%
Africa to CIS
6.1%
3.0%
3.2%
4.8%
Africa to Europe
4.7%
3.6%
3.1%
Pacific to Africa
4.4%
7.2%
CIS to Pacific
4.8%
Intra Pacific
1.5%
Pacific to Asia
2.7%
Africa to Japan
2.2%
CIS to PRC
7.0%
6.1%
6.1%
5.3%
5.1%
Japan to Africa
4.0%
Pacific to CIS
5.7%
4.8%
Domestic Brazil
4.1%
Japan to Asia
2.7%
Pacific to Europe
2.5%
Africa to Pacific
4.4%
Domestic India
8.3%
2.4%
3.8%
Africa to PRC
6.9%
Domestic PRC
7.5%
Japan to CIS
4.0%
Pacific to Japan
3.5%
4.2%
2.1%
Japan to Europe
2.9%
4.7%
Asia to Africa
5.3%
Europe to Africa
4.7%
5.2%
2.2%
5.7%
Europe to Asia
5.2%
3.4%
Pacific to PRC
5.1%
Asia to CIS
5.6%
4.4%
2.5%
5.6%
Asia to Europe
3.9%
Europe to CIS
4.9%
Japan to Pacific
3.4%
PRC to Africa
6.3%
5.8%
7.0%
Japan to PRC
4.6%
PRC to Asia
5.6%
Asia to Japan
2.9%
Europe to Japan
2.2%
3.9%
6.7%
4.3%
4.2%
4.3%
PRC to CIS
6.2%
4.2%
3.3%
4.0%
PRC to Europe
6.6%
Asia to Pacific
4.1%
Europe to Pacific
3.7%
5.5%
8.5%
Asia to PRC
5.0%
Europe to PRC
6.7%
5.3%
PRC to Japan
4.3%
5.1%
5.0%
2.9%
6.7%
5.3%
6.5%
6.2%
6.4%
5.9%
6.7%
2.2%
PRC to Pacific
6.3%
4.6%
7.7%
3.3%
6.8%
4.1%
5.0%
3.5%
5.2%
7.8%
5.5%
5.6%
5.5%
3.6%
4.3%
4.4%
5.9%
5.5%
6.6%
4.8%
5.7%
1.9%
4.1%
4.1%
4.5%
5.7%
4.8%
2.4%
6.4%
7.1%
7.6%
5.2%
4.3%
5.7%
6.5%
4.3%
4.7%
CIS to Africa
4.5%
Intra Africa
5.1%
6.4%
4.5%
CIS to Asia
4.6%
Intra Asia
4.5%
1.4%
5.5%
3.4%
5.2%
4.8%
6.5%
CIS to Europe
2.8%
Intra CIS
4.1%
105
Summary data
New passenger aircraft deliveries by region
Africa
AsiaPacific
CIS
Latin
America
Middle
East
North
America
Total
Single-Aisle
729
6,809
871
4,584
1,794
779
4,676
20,242
Small Twin-Aisle
155
2,220
148
720
346
505
600
Intermediate Twin-Aisle
58
1,013
44
314
103
370
Very large
28
622
32
209
36
970
10,664
1,095
5,827
2,279
Total
AsiaPacific
CIS
CIS
Europe
Latin
America
Middle
East
North
America
Total
29
342
11
65
61
90
605
4,694
Mid-size
29
147
24
123
38
39
424
824
183
2,085
Large
11
158
12
56
28
163
430
345
62
1,334
Total
69
647
47
244
101
74
677
1,859
1,999
5,521
28,355
Europe
Latin
America
Middle
East
North
America
Total
Europe
Latin
America
Middle
East
North
America
Total
Single-Aisle
729
6,809
871
4,584
1,794
779
4,676
20,242
Twin-Aisle
223
3,349
205
1,095
475
906
1,020
Very Large
36
783
40
273
38
390
988
10,941
1,116
5,952
2,307
Europe
Total
AsiaPacific
Small
Africa
Africa
AsiaPacific
CIS
Small
29
342
11
65
61
90
605
7,273
Mid-size
37
228
37
170
64
60
641
1,237
151
1,711
Large
21
354
20
134
83
272
888
2,075
5,847
29,226
Total
87
924
68
369
129
150
1,003
2,730
Latin
America
Middle
East
North
America
Total
Africa
106
AsiaPacific
CIS
Small
Mid-size
81
13
47
26
21
217
413
Large
10
196
78
55
109
458
Total
18
277
21
125
28
76
326
871
107
Passenger
methodology
Forecasting traffic
The objective of the traffic forecast is to assess the quantity
of passengers travelling by air. Initially, all countries are
grouped into 19 traffic regions, based on geographical
proximity and level of socio-economic development.
Each region pair defines a non-oriented traffic flow,
assuming that outbound and inbound passenger traffic
is balanced. Whenever a part of a traffic region develops
very differently from the rest of the region, a new, specific
flow is created, taking into consideration some more
country-related specific characteristics. This process
resulted in 208 flows for the GMF 2013. The main input
data for the traffic forecast are historical traffic volumes
as well as large sets of historical and forecast socioeconomic data from external data providers.
For each traffic flow several socio-economic variables are
selected and fed into econometric equations to identify
the one set or combination of variables that explains
best the historical traffic evolution. Once the model and
variables with the best fit are identified, economic forecast
data is used to derive future traffic volume.
The making of the Airbus Global Market Forecast follows a process that has been continuously improved
for more than 20 years. Each major change in the industry (such as the appearance of low cost business
models or the strong development of hub and spoke operations) has been the occasion for Airbus to refine
and improve its modelling in order to best identify and forecast current and future trends.
The GMF process consists of three main steps: the traffic forecast giving the overall shape of traffic evolution,
the network forecast identifying the future evolution of the airlines networks, and the demand forecast estimating
the number of aircraft required to accommodate the traffic growth.
GMF Process steps
Demand Forecast
Backlog &
retirement
assumptions
Airlines
Calibration
Open Demand
Traffic
Forecast
Airlines
Operations
Forecast
Capacity
Frequency
Model
Airlines
Fleet
Build-Up
Remarketed
aircraft
Backlog
Remarketed
Stay in service
Network
Forecast
108
New
Deliveries
109
The Airbus GMF 2013 covers 741 passenger airlines and their subsidiaries world-wide.
Asia
Canada
Central America
Central Europe
CIS
Europe
Indian Subcontinent
Middle East
North Africa
Pacific
PRC
South America
Sub Sahara
USA
30
17
d
talle
Ins
Regional
& Affiliate
seats in ser
100
36
8%
LCC
40
58%
Global
Network
11%
49%
16%
5%
8%
Major
Network
Small Network
60
81
80
Number of airlines
100
120
110
Capacity
increase
50
5%
6%
Frequency
& capacity increase
Frequency increase
vice
r of airlin
es
mbe
Nu
20%
9%
5%
150
109
50
43
20
200
100
64
0
Charter
37
19
32
82
41
Threshold depending
on market characteristics
Time (years)
1
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
The calibration of this model has to be reviewed each year based on the market definitions and in light of any market
evolution (e.g. infrastructure development plans).
As a result, the airline operation forecast outputs year by year, the demand in terms of aircraft numbers (yearly utilisation,
flight frequencies and capacity) expressed in neutral categories for the complete network of each airline.
Remarketed aircraft
The final step of the GMF process is estimating
remarketed deliveries, which account for a significant
share of the total demand.
Survival curves applied to the GMF start fleet and backlog
per aircraft type, allow identification of the gap between
the statistical world fleet attrition and the shape of those
that stay in service from the GMF fleet build-ups. The delta
corresponds to the maximum potential for remarketed
111
Freight forecast
methodology
Traffic forecast
Once the calibration of an airline has been carried out,
the first step in the traffic forecast is assessing the
relationship between macro-economic trends and the
cargo traffic. GDP, Real Income, Investments, Exports/
Imports, industrial production and many other parameters
are used in our econometric models to assess the best
comparison to growth in traffic. Alongside these macroeconomic factors, the analysis of historical data allows
us to identify and understand the multiple trends involved
in the evolution of the market, such as modal shifts for
certain commodities.
Consumption
behaviours
Economic
Cycles
Air cargo
trends
Growth
Industry
changes
Models:
driver
correlation
with trends
Exports/
Imports
Forecast
GDP
Drivers
The freighter GMF has been part of the Airbus forecasting process for more than ten years and is constantly
enhanced to account for all the key aspects of the cargo market, as well as their evolution. It is closely linked
to the GMF passenger forecast, drawing on results from this forecast to derive future belly hold capacity.
Real
consumption
Industrial
production
Fuel Price
Historical
traffic data
analysis
Airline
fleet
calibration
Passenger
forecast
Cargo
capacity
needed
Belly
capacity
available
Econometric
models
Total
traffic
forecast
Retirement
Aircraft
Freighter
demand
112
113
798
339
Europe
& CIS
34
North
America
51
314
61
15
Latin
America
77
22
56
28
47
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
Africa
Freighter forecast
The freighter forecast for the next 20 years estimates the
number of aircraft required to accommodate the cargo
traffic growth. The demand is divided into four neutral
size categories starting at ten tonnes, including new build
and converted aircraft. Thanks to these virtual categories,
it is possible to assess which aircraft size, on which flow,
best suits the market.
Mixed carriers
800
744
700
Express
177
600
73
500
400
380
300
129
200
95
100
156
521
329
494
45
147
0
Small
114
Mid-Size
Large
115
116
Regional
Y-12
An-28
EMB-110
L-410
Dorn 228
Jet31
Beech1900
Metro
DHC-6
SK-105
Arava
CASA 212
Gulfstr
Nord 262
An-38
DC-3
Jet41
EMB-120
Saab 330
Yak-40
Do 328
Do 328JET
Saab 340
An-26
Short 360
An-74
ERJ-135
An-72
HS 748
CN-235
Dash 8
ERJ-140
An-32
Convair
ATR 42
Dash 7
Y-7
An-24
Saab 2000
ERJ-145
CRJ200
CRJ100
F50
F27
An-140
IL-114
MA60
YS-11
Tu-134
ATP
DC-9
CRJ700
ATR 72
ERJ-170
An-148
F28
Q400
F70
ERJ-175
CRJ900
Avro 85
SSJ
ARJ-21
BAe 146
An-158
MRJ90
CRJ1000
Hercules
Avro 100
ERJ-190
F100
Tu-334
DC-9-30
IL-18
Yak-42
A319CJ
Aircraft type
100
200
300
400
500
Aircraft capacity
600
700
800
900
Capacities
Single-Aisle
Twin-Aisle & VLA
117
P
roduct performance risks, as
well as programme development
and management risks;
C
ustomer, supplier and
subcontractor performance or
contract negotiations, including
financing issues;
C
ompetition and consolidation
in the aerospace and defence
industry;
S
ignificant collective bargaining
labour disputes;
T
he outcome of political and
legal processes, including
the availability of government
financing for certain programmes
and the size of defence and
space procurement budgets;
R
esearch and development
costs in connection with new
products;
L
egal, financial and governmental
risks related to international
transactions;
L
egal and investigatory
proceedings and other
economic, political and
technological risks and
uncertainties.
Any forward-looking statement
contained in this presentation/
publication speaks as of the date
of this presentation/publication
release. EADS/Airbus undertakes
no obligation to publicly revise
or update any forward-looking
statements in light of new
information, future events or
otherwise.
Traffic
Economy
Ecology environement
Fleet in service
Global markets
Traffic evolution
Passenger fleet in service
Freighter fleet in service
International trips
Internation students
Urban population
Disposable incomes
Influence of the middle class
Influence of emerging markets
Ticket price
Fuel price
Fuel consumption per seat
New generation aircraft
Aviation mega-cities
Eco-efficiency
Aircraft utilisation
Load Factors
Middle East
Latin America
Europe
CIS
Asia Pacific
Africa
North America
Fleet-in-service