Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
15 March 2016
BRS Research
Head of Research - Nikita Tissera
Senior Research Analyst - Jennita Fernando
2013
85,408
9.9%
26.8%
EBIT recurring
9,204
2014
86,706
1.5%
26.1%
10,439
2015
91,582
5.6%
27.7%
10,636
2016E
92,508
1.0%
28.5%
12,296
2017E
98,745
2018E
108,268
6.7%
28.0%
10,998
9.6%
28.0%
10.8%
12.0%
11.6%
13.3%
11.1%
10.9%
14.11
12.61
14.44
12.54
11.94
11.39
12.04
10.57
11.37
14.47
11.94
11.39
27.5%
-12.2%
7.6%
27.3%
-17.5%
-4.6%
104.65
132.18
138.73
129.71
133.06
139.00
DPS (LKR)
3.50
3.50
3.50
5.50
6.00
7.00
1.4%
1.5%
1.8%
3.7%
4.0%
4.7%
P/E (x)
Equity Value
(LKR 'mn)
Sector
Valuation Method
Transportation
25,235
Leisure
27,496
Property
34,198
28,605
DCF
Financial services
14,717
IT
3,826
DCF
6,098
2,781
Book value
4,756
Financial Investments
92,856
Debt
(20,653)
6,473
Equity value
226,388
Target Price
195.77
DCF
11,774
20.5 x
21.5 x
17.5 x
10.4 x
12.6 x
13.2 x
P/BV (x)
2.4 x
1.7 x
1.4 x
1.2 x
1.1 x
1.1 x
ROE %
14.7%
10.6%
9.9%
9.8%
8.9%
8.4%
Trading snapshot
Market cap (LKR mn)
179,000
1,226
1,189
98.49%
198.40/150.50
-13.27%
-15.50%
JKH (LKR)
ASPI
Closing prices
8,000
300
7,000
270
6,000
240
5,000
210
4,000
180
3,000
Jan-14
150
Jun-14
Nov-14
Apr-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
1%
14,669
2018E
2018E
PATMI Trend
15%
11,808
-5%
2013
2014
1%
11%
Page 1
2015
2016E
2017E
15 March 2016
85
6%
108
7%
1%
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
11.39
Summary Information
BRS EPS as adjusted (LKR)
12.04
10.57
11.37
14.47
11.94
27.5%
-12.2%
7.6%
27.3%
-17.5%
P/E (x)
20.5 x
21.5 x
17.5 x
10.4 x
12.6 x
13.2 x
-4.6%
13.76
12.61
14.44
na
na
na
Sector PE (x)
25.2 x
21.5x
20.1x
na
na
na
18.0 x
18.0 x
13.8 x
na
na
na
104.65
132.18
138.73
129.71
133.06
139.00
P/BV (x)
2.4 x
1.7 x
1.4 x
1.2 x
1.1 x
1.1 x
2.3 x
1.9x
1.7x
na
na
na
DPS (LKR)
3.50
3.50
3.50
5.50
6.00
7.00
1.4%
10,350
11,523
1.5%
1.8%
3.7%
4.0%
4.7%
5,241
18,420
10,965
(2,838)
(9,695)
4,738
14,594
11,470
9,926
7,013
CFPS (LKR)
(3.44)
14.74
14.86
1.60
6.51
(5.09)
P/CFPS (x)
nm
15.4 x
13.4 x
nm
23.1 x
nm
247.00
227.00
199.40
150.50
150.50
150.50
858
930
993
1,189
1,288
1,288
212,001
211,060
198,067
178,981
193,806
193,806
171,033
119,052
78,342
49,013
63,851
81,186
2.0 x
1.4 x
0.9 x
0.5 x
0.6 x
0.7 x
14.6 x
9.0 x
5.5 x
3.1 x
4.5 x
5.4 x
Revenue
85,408
86,706
91,582
92,508
98,745
108,268
Gross profit
22,873
22,604
25,391
26,321
27,649
30,315
EBITDA recurring
11,697
13,292
14,352
15,963
14,158
14,897
(2,494)
(2,853)
(3,716)
(3,666)
(3,160)
(3,123)
9,204
10,439
10,636
12,296
10,998
11,774
8,122
7,389
(668)
(505)
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Income Statement (LKR mn)
EBIT recurring
Interest income
4,770
5,783
Interest expense
(1,081)
(1,224)
Share of associates
3,369
2,964
3,296
2,012
470
49
306
493
1,439
69
Exceptionals/non-recurrings
6,367
6,781
(1,408)
(2,677)
3,088
3,101
3,297
Tax expense
(2,185)
(2,362)
(3,330)
(3,818)
(2,881)
(2,876)
Net income
16,299
13,175
12,465
14,307
15,930
16,177
1,368
1,237
1,397
1,579
1,633
1,630
11,808
11,229
12,909
14,351
14,544
14,669
30,141
60,159
72,051
79,080
87,467
80,915
3,999
6,966
5,589
6,272
6,703
7,314
Trade receivables
12,775
12,147
10,270
11,579
11,344
12,378
Fixed assets
49,273
47,406
49,563
51,555
52,050
50,940
2,690
2,472
2,719
3,820
3,820
3,820
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
2018E
Goodwill
Intangible assets
LKR
7.00
70%
Associates
15,724
15,049
16,345
18,305
21,406
24,703
Shortterm investments
26,586
54,360
67,541
70,765
70,765
70,765
159,118
201,581
218,086
246,080
276,214
300,232
14,608
14,236
11,267
15,922
17,222
19,107
8,259
16,170
19,034
6,828
6,828
6,828
11,858
9,969
4,900
17,766
29,335
43,767
Total assets
Trade payables
60%
6.00
50%
5.00
4.00
40%
3.00
30%
2.00
20%
Total liabilities
57,933
67,263
68,009
78,236
91,341
108,074
Shareholders equity
89,819
122,897
137,798
154,257
171,353
178,991
Minorities
11,366
11,421
12,279
13,588
13,520
13,167
101,185
134,318
150,077
167,844
184,873
192,158
Total equity
Net debt (cash)
(10,024)
(34,020)
(48,117)
(54,485)
(51,304)
(30,319)
121,302
160,457
174,011
192,439
221,036
242,754
7,973
20,855
14,761
(379)
(9,958)
(7,202)
1,750
(3,815)
(16,618)
(26,169)
2013
2014
2015
DPS
2016E
2017E
2018E
Capital expenditure
Free cash flow
Payout ratio
ROCE
9.0%
ROCE
8.0%
ROE
ROE
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
6.0%
12.0%
5.0%
10.0%
4.0%
8.0%
6.0%
3.0%
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
92
(5,170)
(3,799)
(2,999)
(4,214)
(3,655)
(2,013)
9,398
4,174
17,855
10,547
(4,034)
(11,971)
(1,255)
(10,399)
(3,655)
(2,013)
954
7,997
(8,982)
(7,726)
(9,014)
14,433
(16,199)
(19,710)
Equity capital
1,370
23,268
Dividends paid
(3,822)
(3,865)
(4,269)
(1,571)
(4,390)
86
11,569
Net borrowings
(1,320)
25,446
(4,838)
(2,457)
12,421
5,418
(2,951)
13,708
14,762
1,905
8,388
(6,552)
221
Key ratios
Revenue growth (%)
7.0%
14,568
9.9%
1.5%
5.6%
1.0%
6.7%
37.9%
13.4%
1.9%
15.6%
-10.6%
7.1%
26.8%
26.1%
27.7%
28.5%
28.0%
28.0%
13.7%
15.3%
15.7%
17.3%
14.3%
13.8%
10.8%
12.0%
11.6%
13.3%
11.1%
10.9%
13.8%
13.0%
14.1%
15.5%
14.7%
13.5%
ROCE %
8.3%
7.4%
6.4%
6.7%
5.3%
5.1%
ROE %
14.7%
10.6%
9.9%
9.8%
8.9%
8.4%
29.1%
33.1%
30.8%
38.0%
50.2%
61.5%
Debt/equity (%)
19.9%
19.5%
15.9%
14.7%
19.6%
26.3%
-9.9%
-25.3%
-32.1%
-32.5%
-27.8%
-15.8%
Gearing (%)
16.6%
16.3%
13.8%
12.8%
16.4%
20.8%
8.5 x
8.5 x
15.9 x
24.4 x
7.8 x
4.4 x
Page 2
9.6%
Q3 FY 16 Performance
Revenue
Sector
LKR 'mn
Q3 FY 16
Q3 FY 15 Growth % Contribution
Q3 FY 16
Q3 FY 15 Growth % Contribution
Transportation
2,214
3,595
-38.4%
8.9%
418
637
-34.4%
9.0%
Leisure
6,228
5,861
6.3%
25.1%
1,089
1,238
-12.1%
23.3%
Property
2,116
1,931
9.6%
8.5%
542
356
52.0%
11.6%
9,258
7,586
22.0%
37.4%
760
437
73.6%
16.3%
Financial services
1,931
2,769
-30.3%
7.8%
973
946
2.8%
20.8%
Information Technology
2,360
2,111
11.8%
9.5%
70
93
-25.0%
1.5%
598
915
-34.6%
2.4%
554
965
-42.5%
11.9%
24,706
24,769
4,405
4,673
FY 2016E
Other
3%
Other
4%
IT
8%
Financial
Services
10%
Financial
Services
7%
Transport
14%
IT
9%
Transport
10%
Leisure
27%
Leisure
25%
CF & R
32%
CF & R
39%
Property
5%
Property
6%
FY 2016E
Plantations
Transport
-3%
2%
Financial
Services
19%
Leisure
46%
CF & R
21%
IT
2%
Plantations
-6%
Financial
Services
18%
Leisure
36%
CF & R
34%
Property
12%
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Transport
4%
Property
10%
Page 3
Valuation
Sector
Equity Value
(LKR 'mn)
Valuation Method
Transportation
25,235
Leisure
27,496
DCF
Property
34,198
28,605
DCF
Financial services
14,717
IT
3,826
DCF
6,098
2,781
Book value
4,756
Financial Investments
92,856
Debt
(20,653)
6,473
Equity value
226,388
Target Price
195.77
DCF
Valuation assumptions
Terminal growth rate - 3% (except for CCS and KFP which is 5%)
Risk free rate - 11.2% (previous - 9.63%)
Beta - 1
Equity risk premium - 5%
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Page 4
Financial Analysis
Income statement - John Keells Holdings PLC
Year Ending 31st March
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
85,408
86,706
91,582
92,508
98,745
YoY growth %
9.9%
1.5%
5.6%
1.0%
6.7%
9.6%
22,873
23,994
25,391
26,321
27,649
30,315
Gross Profit
108,268
YoY growth %
25.8%
4.9%
5.8%
3.7%
5.0%
9.6%
26.8%
27.7%
27.7%
28.5%
28.0%
28.0%
1,501
2,492
3,077
3,891
1,387
742
(19,456)
(15,171)
(16,246)
(16,393)
(17,846)
(18,069)
YoY growth %
19.7%
7.1%
0.9%
8.9%
1.2%
7.7%
Total depreciation
(3,177)
(3,488)
(3,716)
(3,666)
(3,160)
(3,123)
9,204
10,240
12,075
12,366
10,998
11,774
306
493
1,439
69
Non-recurring items
8,898
9,747
10,636
12,296
10,998
11,774
YoY growth %
33.3%
9.5%
9.1%
15.6%
-10.6%
7.1%
EBIT margin
EBITDA excluding non-recurring items
10.4%
11.2%
11.6%
13.3%
11.1%
10.9%
12,075
13,235
14,352
15,963
14,158
14,897
YoY growth %
29.7%
9.6%
8.4%
11.2%
-11.3%
5.2%
EBITDA margin
14.1%
15.3%
15.7%
17.3%
14.3%
13.8%
3,689
4,554
7,454
6,884
4,959
4,104
2,012
470
49
(2,608)
(3,033)
(3,799)
(2,521)
3,369
3,089
3,296
3,088
3,101
3,297
15,360
14,827
17,637
19,748
19,058
19,175
(2,185)
(2,362)
(3,330)
(3,818)
(2,881)
(2,876)
13,175
12,465
14,307
15,930
16,177
16,299
25.8%
-5.4%
14.8%
11.3%
1.5%
0.8%
YoY growth %
11,808
11,229
12,909
14,351
14,544
14,669
Minority interest
1,368
1,237
1,397
1,579
1,633
1,630
14.11
12.61
14.44
12.54
11.94
11.39
12.04
10.57
11.37
14.47
11.94
11.39
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Page 5
Financial Analysis
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
47,406
49,563
51,555
52,050
9,514
9,096
8,709
9,002
9,002
9,002
Investment property
9,295
4,440
4,609
4,609
4,609
4,609
Intangible assets
2,690
2,472
2,719
3,820
3,820
3,820
15,724
15,049
16,345
18,305
21,406
24,703
18,817
21,069
19,709
22,091
22,091
22,091
212
132
109
118
118
118
3,576
19,710
25,830
36,745
54,295
80,620
109,100
119,375
127,593
146,245
167,391
195,903
Investment in subsidiaries
50,940
Current Assets
Inventories
Trade & other receivables
Amonuts due from related parties
Other current assets
Short term investments
Cash and Cash Equivalents
Total Assets
3,999
6,966
5,589
6,272
6,703
7,314
12,775
12,147
10,270
11,579
11,344
12,378
207
334
185
2,896
2,601
2,398
2,895
3,300
3,713
26,586
54,360
67,541
70,765
70,765
70,765
3,555
5,799
4,511
8,314
16,702
10,150
50,018
82,206
90,493
99,835
108,823
104,329
159,118
201,581
218,086
246,080
276,214
300,232
26,480
49,749
50,703
58,700
67,279
67,279
42,704
51,304
62,594
68,124
76,642
84,280
20,635
21,845
24,501
27,433
27,433
27,433
Shareholders funds
89,819
122,897
137,798
154,257
171,353
178,991
11,366
11,421
12,279
13,588
13,520
13,167
101,185
134,318
150,077
167,844
184,873
192,158
Insurance provisions
17,388
20,273
23,932
26,316
26,316
26,316
Borrowings
11,858
9,969
4,900
17,766
29,335
43,767
Total equity
Non Current Liabilities
1,222
1,328
1,625
1,747
1,747
1,747
1,385
1,502
1,495
1,644
1,779
1,900
50
90
103
964
964
964
530
393
782
1,524
1,524
1,524
32,434
33,554
32,837
49,961
61,664
76,218
14,608
14,236
11,267
15,922
17,222
19,107
15
14
26
22
22
22
981
908
1,592
2,126
1,995
1,960
Current Liabilities
Trade and other payables
Amonts due to related parties
Income tax payable
Short term borrowings
1,854
9,752
12,623
1,112
1,112
1,112
3,049
3,664
4,459
2,856
2,856
2,856
Total Liabilities
Total Equity and Liabilities
1,636
2,380
3,252
3,377
3,609
3,938
3,356
2,754
1,952
2,861
2,861
2,861
25,499
33,709
35,172
28,275
29,677
31,855
57,933
67,263
68,009
78,236
91,341
108,074
159,118
201,581
218,086
246,080
276,214
300,232
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Page 6
Financial Analysis
Cash flow - John Keells Holdings PLC
Year Ending 31st March
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
6,595
7,207
8,276
9,845
10,998
11,774
2,250
2,569
2,767
2,860
3,160
3,123
18
195
11
110
60
41
70
(223)
(821)
(92)
(1,221)
683
680
714
572
245
239
234
234
(1)
247
(1)
262
(2)
(1)
(8)
286
298
312
312
(28)
27
65
905
216
347
294
Unrealised profits
9,846
10,614
(0)
92
9,939
(7,202)
11,387
1,750
15,178
(3,815)
3,412
13,137
11,363
4,512
5,176
7,414
6,612
(1,068)
(1,210)
(655)
(517)
2,817
2,748
2,397
(1,514)
(1,990)
(1,294)
(1,549)
(1,088)
(117)
14,568
(163)
7,973
(144)
102
(161)
20,855
14,761
14,470
15,209
(16,618)
(26,169)
(2,148)
(10,960)
6,367
6,781
(1,408)
(2,677)
(3,012)
(2,911)
(177)
(190)
(379)
(9,958)
Investing Activities
Purchase and construction of property, plant & equipment
(5,170)
(3,799)
(2,999)
(4,214)
(3,655)
(2,013)
(68)
(46)
(280)
(37)
(3)
(128)
(23)
(3)
(1)
(40)
(302)
(1,102)
-
Acquisition of subsidiaries
(350)
Acquisition of associates
(238)
(129)
(98)
(32)
145
228
265
315
860
303
506
586
2,073
138
3,461
38
(1,244)
(959)
(113)
(755)
69
(4,481)
(1,683)
(4,194)
(3,632)
(5,177)
(15,810)
3,025
(2,306)
(16,199)
(19,710)
(1,255)
5
(10,399)
(3,655)
(2,013)
Financing Activities
Proceeds from issue of shares
1,370
23,268
7,997
8,579
(23)
(68)
(3,476)
(7,776)
(6,027)
(7,031)
(1,983)
82
(8)
(228)
(9)
(57)
(2,982)
(3,267)
954
(3)
(839)
(598)
(793)
(1,206)
(1,700)
(2,948)
(4,638)
(5,405)
(5,763)
(2,750)
(2,750)
3,169
3,067
1,015
5,849
14,319
17,183
2,871
(1,467)
(1,320)
845
25,446
7,898
(4,838)
(2,457)
(2,951)
13,708
14,762
1,905
12,421
8,388
5,418
(6,552)
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Top 20 shareholders
No. of shares
No.asofatshares as at
11.09.201531.12.2015
124,122,878
10.4%
2 Mr S E Captain
119,937,442
10.1%
92,077,194
7.7%
43,616,626
3.7%
38,606,230
3.2%
35,868,199
3.0%
30,679,913
2.6%
26,234,282
2.2%
22,985,778
1.9%
20,138,318
1.7%
18,932,286
1.6%
12 Mr K Balendra
18,111,218
1.5%
15,062,970
1.3%
14,889,063
1.3%
15 Mr R S Captain
14,347,066
1.2%
12,497,857
1.0%
11,516,814
1.0%
11,316,145
1.0%
19 Mrs C S De Fonseka
11,282,940
0.9%
20 Mrs S A J De Fonseka
11,069,333
0.9%
Source: Bloomberg
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Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months
Buy
More than 10%
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Between 10% and 0
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