CURRENT CHALLENGES AND FUTURE

PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINABLE

URBAN TRANSPORTATION IN INDIA
Kumares C. Sinha
Purdue University

First Indo-US Symposium on Advances in Mass Transit and Travel Behaviour Research (MTTBR-08)
12-15 February 2008, India

Challenges in Urban Transportation

Increasing demand for passenger and goods

movement with limited resources

Congestion in Indian cities

Challenges in Urban Transportation

Need for sustainability:

Safety
Environmental quality
Social equity

Air pollution in Indian cities

Challenges in Urban Transportation

Level of economic
growth, urbanization and
other economic
conditions
Common thrust: How to
cope with motorization

Congestion in Atlanta, GA

History Repeats Itself

Similarity exists in trends:

Rising personal income

Growth in private vehicle
ownership and use
Low density urban sprawl
Decline of public
transportation
The Elephant and The
Dragon: The Rise of India
and China

History Repeats Itself

Bicycling and Motor

Scooters

Walking

History Repeats Itself

Bus

Rail

Autorickshaw

Auto

The Emergence of Affordable

Vehicle

In 1908, Ford Model T:

Response to
consumers desire for
personal travel avoiding
slow and restrictive
service of streetcars
Henry Ford, founder of Ford
Motor Company standing beside
the Ford Model T

The Emergence of Affordable

Vehicle

In 2008, Tata Nano:

Fulfilling aspirations of
middle class in India
that finds travel by
excessively
overcrowded public
transportation and
motor scooters unsafe
and exhausting

Overcrowded Public Transportation

Congested Highways

The Emergence of Affordable

Vehicle

Possible impacts:

Travel behavior and

pattern
Residential location
choice
Environmental
sustainability

Indicators of Urban
Transportation Sustainability

Decennial data from 46 cities in the US,

Australia, Canada, Western Europe and
Asia 1960-1990 (Kenworthy and Laube)
Indicators of transport efficiency in 37
global cities 1990 (The World Bank)

Pearson Correlations of Population Density

Variables

1960

1970 1980 1990

1960-1990

Transit boardings /capita

0.76

0.66

0.66

0.69

0.67

Total energy consumption /capita

-0.51

-0.54

-0.64

-0.69

-0.58

Car kms of travel/ car

-0.43

-0.64

-0.64

-0.38

-0.51

Cars/1000 people

-0.78

-0.79

-0.80

-0.82

-0.71

Parking spaces in CBD/1000

employees

-0.55

-0.62

-0.47

-0.49

-0.46

Road length/ capita

-0.70

-0.60

-0.65

-0.67

-0.61

Energy consumption by private

modes /capita

-0.63

-0.56

-0.65

-0.69

-0.60

Car kms of travel/ capita

-0.76

-0.70

-0.72

-0.71

-0.64

Boardings per transit km of travel

0.76

0.77

0.43

0.45

0.48

Population density & Car and Transit Demand

Transit & Transportation Energy Demand

Transportation Energy Consumption

(MJ/capita/year)

90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000

y = -17130 ln x + 122749

30000

r2 = 0.731

20000
10000
0
0

100

200

300

400

500

Transit Boardings (per capita/year)

600

700

Parking Provisions in CBD & Transit Use

500

Transit Boardings (per capita/year)

450
400
350
300
250
200
150

y = 474.5e-0.0036x

100

r2 = 0.6622

50
0
0

200

400

600

800

Parking Spaces per 1000 Employees

1000

Transit Mode Share & Transportation

Emissions
5000

CO2 emissions (kg/capita/year)

4500
4000
3500
3000
2500

y = -1291.8 ln x + 6505.6

2000

r2 = 0.6367

1500
1000
500
0
0

20

40

60

JTW by Transit (% )

80

100

Population Density & Transit Cost Recovery

1.4

Transit Cost Recovery Factor

1.2
1

y = 0.2696 ln x 0.3511

r2 = 0.6219

0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0

100

200

300

Urban Population Density (persons/hectare)

400

Economy, Population and

Urbanization

2006 GNP/capita for USA ($44,970) is

55 times larger than India ($820)
26% of Indian population lives in
poverty
Poor cannot even afford basic public
transportation

Worldwide Trends
2200

Automobile Use

2000
1800

Motor vehicle
fleet

Index (1950=100)

1600
1400
1200
1000

Urban
population

800
600
400

Total
population

200
0
1960

1970

1980

1990
Year

2000

2010

Urban population density in India

(15,700 persons/sq. km) is about 14
times higher than in the USA (1,150
persons/sq. km)

Megacities and Cities in India

Delhi (mega)
Pop: 12.8 m
Density:
11,050 person/m2

Mumbai (mega)
Pop: 16.4 m
Density:
29,650 person/m2

Bangalore
Pop: 5.4 m
Density:
10,010 person/m2

Kolkata (mega)
Pop: 13.2 m
Density:
23,900 person/m2
Chennai
Pop: 6.0 m
Density:
14,350 person/m2

Megacities and Cities in USA

San Francisco
Pop: 3.23 m
Density:
2,350 person/m2

Los Angeles
Pop: 11.8 m
Density:
2,750 person/m2

New York (mega)

Pop: 18.8 m
Density:
2,050 person/m2

Rapid pace of urbanization is a

worldwide phenomenon
In USA, sprawl was initiated primarily
by choice
In India, it is mostly by necessity

Travel Characteristics

Modal Split in Indian Cities

100%
90%
80%

Public transport

60%

Private
motorized

50%

Non-automated
transport

40%
30%

Walk

20%
10%

ur
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0%

Modal split

70%

Modal Split in US Cities

100%
90%
80%
Public transport

60%
Private
motorized

50%
40%
30%

Non-automated
transport

20%

Walk

10%

le
s
Lo
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ng
e

lp
hi
a
Ph
ila
de

Fr
an
ci
sc
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Sa
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to
n

hi
ca
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Yo

rk

0%

Modal split

70%

Annual rate of travel demand growth in major

cities ranges 2.2-9.5%
The use of public transportation is high (3078%)
Predominant mode is walking and non-motorized
transportation
The percentage of trips by private vehicles is
relatively small, 10-20%, but rapidly increasing
Bus represents 90% of public transportation use

Travel Characteristics

Except in New York and a few large cities, the

problem of public transportation in USA is the
lack of demand
In India, it is the lack of supply
Indian cities are on the cusp of a major shift in
travel behavior
The experience of cities in USA since the 1950s
is about to be repeated in Indian cities

Traffic Congestion

Traffic Congestion in Indian, Chinese

and US Cities
City
Mumbai, India
Delhi, India
Chennai, India
Kolkata, India

Beijing, China
Shanghai, China

Los Angeles, USA*

Average speed during peak

congestion in downtown
38 km/h (1963)
15-20 km/h (1993)
20-27 km/h (1997)
15 km/h (2002)
13 km/h (2003)
7-15 km/h (2003)
45 km/h (1994)
5-12 km/h (2003)
9-18 km/h (2003)
8-32 km/h (2005)

Congestion is endemic around

the world
Most acute and aggravating in
Indian cities:

Limited road space

Poor road design
Lack of maintenance
Mixed traffic

Traffic jams last many hours

and spread over a large area

Traffic Safety

Road fatality rate per million people has almost

tripled in India over the past few decades:

Over 100,000 traffic fatalities in 2003

Fatality rate per 100,000 motor vehicles in 2003
(108.1) was five times that in the USA
Four largest cities accounts for 5.4 percent of all road
fatalities
56% involves pedestrians and bicyclists
20% involves scooters
Urban poor is disproportionately affected
Possible sustainability in question

Environment and Energy

Air, noise and water

pollution
Old and poorly maintained
vehicles and infrastructures
Indian cities are some of the
most polluted
SPM concentrations are
many times higher than
China or in the USA, 3 to 4
times higher than the WHO
standards

Smog in China

Sa
n

ew

el
h
i

at
a

ng

Yo

rk

sc
o

el
es

ol
k

An
g

Fr
an
ci

Lo

ya

M
um
ba

Sh
en

250

ai

ng

300

gh

ei
ji

350

Sh
an

Pollutant concentration (microgram per cubic meter)

Environmental Pollution in India, China

and USA

400

Suspended Particulate
Matters
SOx

NOx

200

150

100

50

Vehicular traffic renders some cities noisiest in

the world
Long-term hearing loss and damage to nervous
system

Noise Pollution in India, China and USA

100
90
80

USEPA Limit of 67 dB
for Residential Areas

Noise Level (dB)

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Beijing

Shanghai

Shenyang

Mumbai

Kolkata

Delhi

Greenhouse Gases

150 million cars by 2020

Even with 50 mpg, Nano
will add an enormous
amount of CO2 to the
current emission of 220
million tons per year
CO2 and Global Warming

Future Prospects

Future Prospects

Individuals desire for freedom of travel

Increasing demand for more mobility, accessibility

and personal space

Need for planners and policy makers to

render demand compatible with sustainable
development

Safe and green automobiles

Public transportation system to complement
automobiles
Minimize the need for travel

Pricing

Pricing mechanisms do not

consider the full cost of
automotive transportation
Road safety and environmental
impacts should be internalized
and translated into user charges
to slow down demand for road
traffic
Additional revenues collected can
be used:

Improving road safety

Developing vehicle and fuel
technologies
Improving public transportation

Electronic Road Pricing in

Singapore

Land Use Management

Minimize dispersal and travel

Long-range land use-transportation

policies
Smart growth in central cities and suburbs
Examples of China
With low car ownerships, opportunity is
still there

Public Transportation

Make Public Transportation an Attractive

Alternative
Increase level of service and quality of public
transportation
Seamless travel through integration of services
Market segmentation
New suburban rail and bus rapid transit systems
Public-Private Partnerships (PPP)
Use of cleaner technologies
Infrastructure for non-motorized transportation

Alternative Fuels

Explore alternative
fuel options:

Plug-in hybrids
Cellulosic bio-fuels
Hydrogen fuel cell

Promote R&D in the

development of
alternative fuel

Research, Education and

Training

Research centers of excellence at

competitively-selected universities:

Cooperation with public and private sectors

Collaboration with domestic and foreign universities
Funded as part of the national transportation
development program
Multidisciplinary
Integration with academic programs
Continuing education and training

Long Term Vision for Sustainable

Urbanization

Three-way relationship:

Land use
Internet
Transportation

Long Term Vision for Sustainable

Urbanization

Harness the potential of

emerging
information/communication
technologies
Tele-commuting, tele-schooling,
tele-shopping and teleentertaining
Effects on trip rates, distances
and distributions of various trip
purposes

Long Term Vision for Sustainable

Urbanization

Land use-transport system not

tied to a limited geographical
area
Collection of thriving
neighborhoods
Walking, biking and public
transportation with little
dependence on automobiles
Improved quality of life

Conclusions

Process of motorization and attendant sprawl with decline

in public transportation is a worldwide phenomenon
Need for sustainability and countermeasures to
motorization
Reconfiguration of urban communities
Role of technology
Cities as a collection of livable communities
Travel and residential location choice
Understanding of travel behavior
Research, education and training
Need for political will

End of Presentation