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The monitoring of lead in drinking water is beset by difficulties relating to the inherent
temporal variation of lead emissions at individual premises. Such difficulties are com-
pounded by spatial variation when considering an entire water supply area (e.g., City or
18 February 2009
Town), which is necessary to determine compliance with regulatory standards and to judge
the efficacy of corrective measures. A computational modelling system, that uses a Monte
Carlo probabilistic framework for simulating lead emissions within a water supply area,
has been successfully validated in a range of UK case studies and enabled corrective
Keywords:
treatment measures to be optimised for a range of water types. This modelling system
Lead
includes the simulation of a range of sampling methods, and has made it possible to
Drinking water
undertake an exhaustive comparison between daily average lead emissions (DAC which
Plumbosolvency
Sampling
system used), random daytime sampling (RDT), 30 min stagnation sampling (30MS) and 6 h
Computational modelling
stagnation sampling (6HS). It is concluded that: (a) the stringency of UK and US compliance
assessment methods for lead in drinking water is fairly similar for waters of reduced
plumbosolvency, despite different sampling approaches; (b) RDT sampling is equivalent to
random DAC for waters of moderate plumbosolvency; (c) RDT sampling is more stringent
than random DAC for waters of low plumbosolvency; (d) all random sampling methods
suffer from poor reproducibility, albeit less so for low plumbosolvency water; and (e) fixed
point stagnation sampling may not be representative.
2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
1.
Introduction
2648
2.
2649
normally below 1 mg/l unless the lead pipe is very long) or (ii) it
is determined by previous zero flow (stagnation) conditions,
as influenced by pipe geometry and the extent of the flow
event. It can be appreciated that the simulation of such events
in each stirred tank for every second of flow leads to millions
of calculations being performed for each simulated pipe.
Particulate lead is not simulated because the influencing
factors are highly variable and would be difficult to define.
Such factors would include the physical condition of lead
corrosion deposits and their fragility, fluctuations in water
flow and scouring effects, and the extent of loose iron corrosion deposits at any time or location. In the UK context, it has
not been found necessary to include particulate lead, as
demonstrated by case studies (Hayes et al., 2006, 2008) and
this is probably a reflection of the major reductions in iron
discolouration problems since the early 1990s following
extensive replacement or refurbishment of old cast iron water
mains. In circumstances where iron discolouration is significant, an adjustment would need to be made to the modelling
procedure reported here. This could be achieved empirically
by adjusting M and E.
The zonal model is set up by the random ascription of
a series of zonal characteristics, as derived from sets of agreed
statistical distributions, and by the use of agreed variables and
constants. The statistical distributions used in this study are
shown in Fig. 2 and have been used successfully in many
zonal modelling studies on the basis of the validation achieved with field data (e.g. Hayes et al., 2008). Where pipe-work
and residency surveys have been undertaken (Hayes et al.,
2006) the observed departures from the standard statistical
distributions were only minor. The standard distributions
have the following features:
the length of lead and non-lead pipes have a log-normal
distribution, consistent with longer lengths occurring less
frequently;
for the lead pipes, 95% are assumed to have an internal
diameter of 12 mm and 5% 18 mm, as relates to UK
conditions;
the volume used per day relates to an individual simulated
house, the mean volume equating to the average water
consumption of a house in the UK and assumed to flow
through the simulated pipes;
pattern A describes water usage in a house in which there is
residency throughout the hours when water is consumed
(not during the night when residents are asleep);
pattern B describes water usage in a house in which all
residents are absent during office hours when no water is
used;
patterns A and B are applied for three and two water use
frequencies respectively, such that the weighting of A to B is
3 to 2, albeit with the water use frequencies within the two
categories having an equal weighting.
Changes in any of these assumptions can be readily made,
for example: in response to a reduction in water consumption
following a programme of compulsory metering, all that
would be necessary would be to amend the computer file that
holds the assumed distribution of water consumptions and is
used in establishing the probabilistic framework. However,
2650
20
20
20
15
15
15
25
10
10
10
5
0
0
5
20 35 50 65 80 95
10
Length (m)
20
Volume (l)
Length (m)
Water use pattern A
16
25
Hour
Frequencies
12
20
10
15
14
8
6
Hour
Frequencies
10
2
0
0
1
7 10 13 16 19 22
hour
7 10 13 16 19 22
hour
the work of Hayes (2002) has shown that changes to all variables, other than plumbosolvency (M and E ) and the
percentage of houses with lead pipes, have to be substantial to
have an effect on the models results.
The aim of this probabilistic Monte Carlo framework is to
describe the huge variation that undoubtedly occurs in real
water supply zones. If we can mimic this real-world variation
then the model can be used for predictive purposes, as has been
demonstrated by case studies (Hayes et al., 2006, 2008). It should
be appreciated that the average lead concentrations predicted
by the model relate to a single plumbosolvency condition
occurring in time, whether it is applied as a constant throughout
an area or as a range. In consequence, the predicted results
relate to an average condition over time. This is reasonable if the
periods of time under consideration extend to multiples of
a year, such that seasonal variation is accommodated.
The zonal model calculates the daily average concentration
(DAC) of the lead emissions for each simulated house and from
this can readily determine the percentage of simulated houses
that fail a series of specified standards (typically: 10, 25 and
50 mg/l). As the zonal model uses a range of water use patterns
(Fig. 2) that also span week-day and week-end consumptions,
the DAC is taken to be equivalent to the weekly average
concentration, and is therefore also equivalent to composite
sampling over a weekly period (COMP) as was used by Van den
Hoven et al., 1999. This is of interest as the EU directive (European Commission, 1998) describes the lead standards in terms
of weekly average lead concentrations ingested.
It is of course not possible to validate these DAC outputs
directly without exhaustive composite sampling (which is not
logistically feasible) and so a sampling model is used, in order
to characterise the behaviour of the simulated zone in a way
that can be validated by the data collected by water
Number of
samples
Bristol
Observed
Predicted
Cambridge: zone
new 1
Observed
Predicted
Cambridge: zone
new 2
Observed
Predicted
Cambridge: zone
old 1
Observed
Predicted
Cambridge: zone
old 2
Observed
Predicted
South East Wales
Observed
Predicted
% >10
mg/l
% >25
mg/l
% >50 mg/l
259
46.9
35.0
27.3
22.9
9.7
9.6
145
8.2
7.4
3.0
2.0
0.0
0.2
130
10.0
8.7
0.8
2.4
0.0
0.2
525
32.4
28.4
15.0
15.1
4.5
5.2
292
9.8
11.1
4.5
5.0
2.0
1.4
509
21.8
18.4
11.8
11.3
4.5
4.8
3.
2651
There are two stages in the zonal-sampling modelling procedure. Firstly, the zonal characteristics are assembled by
randomised ascription of the variables used. The statistical
distributions (Fig. 2) that control this process define percentages of each value to be applied in the modelling framework.
The simplified description of each variable in a look-up table
format is very flexible and easy to amend, as opposed to
defining mathematically the shape of a curve (which in the
development of the model was found to give similar results).
In combination, the ranges in variables that are used give rise
to around 3000 permutations of pipe characteristics within
each zonal model. Each time the zonal model is executed,
a particular set of permutations is created, which differ
4.
Results
4.1.
Comparison of DAC, RDT, 30MS and 6HS: moderate
plumbosolvency
The averaged results for five zones with varying percentages
of lead pipes and moderately plumbosolvent water conditions
are shown in Table 2. Percentage failure is clearly a function of
both the stringency of the lead standard and the percentage of
simulated houses which have a lead pipe (albeit of varying
length and diameter), for all four sampling methods. For the
lead standard of 10 mg/l, 30MS gives a slightly higher failure
rate than RDT and DAC. The range of zonal failure rates
2652
10
25
50
3.71
1.13
0.18
3.94
1.56
0.43
4.53
2.22
0.00
30
10
25
50
12.35
2.91
0.69
12.28
5.18
1.37
14.23
7.09
0.00
50
10
25
50
20.41
4.66
1.00
20.23
8.02
1.91
24.27
11.63
0.00
70
10
25
50
28.65
7.38
1.62
27.33
11.60
2.76
33.89
16.80
0.00
90
10
25
50
37.85
9.50
1.85
36.39
15.28
3.69
43.38
21.33
0.00
6.00
19.69
33.64
47.50
60.95
0.23
58.84
84.98
104.34
115.94
1
99
100
100
100
4.2.
Comparison of DAC, RDT, 30MS and 6HS: low
plumbosolvency
The averaged results for five zones with varying percentages
of lead pipes and low plumbosolvent water conditions (80%
reduction compared to moderate plumbosolvency) are shown
in Table 3. For DAC and RDT, similar trends are discernable to
those observed for moderately plumbosolvent water, with
both failure rates increasing with higher percentages of
houses with a lead pipe.
The RDT failure rates are noticeably higher than those based
on DAC and this is of regulatory significance. In the current
debate in Europe on what sampling method to use to determine
compliance with the lead standards of 25 and 10 mg/l, if RDT
sampling was adopted as the harmonised method, it would not
only be more feasible logistically (Van den Hoven et al., 1999)
but more stringent, providing no less public health protection
than the manner in which the standards are described in the
directive (European Commission, 1998).
The UK Government has indicated (Drinking Water
Inspectorate, 2000, 2001) that one measure of optimisation of
corrective treatment is that no more than 2% of RDT samples
should exceed 10 mg/l. This means that in zones with a higher
percentage of houses with a lead pipe the plumbosolvency of
the water must be reduced more than that in a zone with
a lower percentage of lead pipes, for water of similar plumbosolvency prior to corrective treatment. Table 3 also reveals
that 30MS fails to distinguish the influence of the percentage
of lead pipes.
With the US LCR and 6HS sampling, the influence of the
percentage of houses with a lead pipe is significant. Zones
2653
140
120
100
30ms
dac
80
60
40
20
0
1
812
1623
2434
3245
4056
4867
5678
6489
7300
8111
8922
9733
Fig. 3 A comparison of 30MS and DAC for a zone with 50% lead pipes and moderate plumbosolvency water (M [ 0.1,
E [ 150). The Y-axis is the lead concentration in mg/l. The X-axis is the number of simulated houses in the zone that had the
particular lead concentration predicted, both on the basis of 30MS and DAC.
4.3.
Influence of the ratio between equilibrium (E ) and
30MS lead concentrations
30MS samples have been considered (Lacey and Jolly, 1986) to
be a reasonable measure of the average lead concentration
emitted from a lead pipe, in consideration of the water
consumption patterns that are encountered in various types
of domestic household in the UK. It is also reasonable to
suppose the higher the equilibrium lead concentration (E ), the
greater will be the chance of obtaining a failure. This supposition is borne out in Tables 5 and 6 for both moderate and low
plumbosolvent water:
for a single pipe and moderate plumbosolvency water, with
M 0.1 kept constant, the predicted 30MS lead concentration increases as the ratio of E/30MS increases; a similar
effect is observed with low plumbosolvency water with
M 0.02;
4.4.
RDT re-sampling
2654
Percentage Standard
DAC
RDT
30MS
of houses
for lead
Average % Average % Average %
with a lead
(mg/l)
samples
samples
samples
pipe
>standard >standard >standard
10
10
25
50
0.18
0.00
0.00
0.41
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
30
10
25
50
0.75
0.00
0.00
1.34
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
50
10
25
50
0.86
0.01
0.00
1.93
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
70
10
25
50
1.54
0.01
0.00
2.96
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
90
10
25
50
1.79
0.00
0.00
3.47
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Average %
samples
>standard
2.80
6.41
11.76
16.44
21.80
0
5
62
98
100
The averaged results shown derive from 100 surveys each of 100
samples. All samples were selected randomly from the zonal
model. Low plumbosolvency was defined by M 0.02 and E 30.
low plumbosolvency conditions. It is clear that RDT resampling is not able to reliably confirm an initial RDT failure.
4.5.
DAC
RDT
6HS
>10 mg/l
>15 mg/l
0.84
1.91
N/A
0.30
0.51
11.76
N/A not available from model. The averaged results shown derive
from 100 surveys each of 100 samples for a zone with 50% houses
with a lead pipe. All samples were selected randomly from the
zonal model (additional simulations to those summarised in Table
3). Low plumbosolvency was defined by M 0.02 and E 30. The UK
optimisation target for plumbosolvency control is that no more
than 2% RDT samples exceed 10 mg/l, whereas the US target for LCR
compliance is that no more than 10% 6HS samples exceed 15 mg/l
(assuming equivalence to the 90th percentile concentration).
30MS lead
concentration (mg/l)
75
150
225
300
(b) Low plumbosolvency (M 0.02)
15
30
45
60
Ratio E/30MS
41.4
49.6
52.8
54.5
1.8
3.0
4.3
5.5
8.3
9.9
10.6
10.9
1.8
3.0
4.2
5.5
The results were obtained with a single lead pipe of 20 m length and
12 mm internal diameter, with no non-lead pipe.
2655
Table 6 Effect of equilibrium lead concentration on predicted compliance with zonal targets.
(a) Moderate plumbosolvency (M 0.1)
Equilibrium concentration
(mg/l)
75
150
225
300
(b) Low plumbosolvency (M 0.02)
15
30
45
60
Average %
DAC
Average %
RDT
Average %
6HS
% 6HS surveys
failing
>10 mg/l
>10 mg/l
>15 mg/l
17.10
20.41
21.94
24.20
19.44
20.23
20.48
21.07
24.48
33.64
34.75
33.94
43.04
84.98
129.90
158.70
100
100
100
100
0.14
0.86
1.19
1.48
0.79
1.93
2.60
3.07
0.00
11.76
23.70
23.63
8.87
17.08
25.67
30.94
0
62
100
100
The averaged results shown derive from a simulated zone in which 50% houses have a lead pipe and from 100 surveys each of 100 samples. All
samples were selected randomly from the zonal model.
5.
Conclusions
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2656
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