Deposit

i
capital
2
1
3
6

minggu
bulan
bulan
bulan

Saving
i saving
Capital
2
1
3
6

minggu
bulan
bulan
bulan

Forward
i forward
Capital
2 minggu
1 month
3 months
6 months

8%
917000000 rupiah
Bunga
Capital + Bunga
2673117.808219 919673117.808219
5728109.589041 922728109.589041
17184328.76712 934184328.767123
34368657.53425 951368657.534247

0.056
917000000
Bunga
Capital + Bunga
1969665.753425 918969665.753425
4220712.328767 921220712.328767
12662136.9863 929662136.986302
25324273.9726 942324273.972603

0.076
917000000
2673409.315069
5728734.246575
17186202.73973
34372405.47945

919773409.315068
922828734.246575
934286202.739726
951472405.479452

Assumption:
> Deposit USD 100.000
> i Forward 7.6%
>i Deposit 7.6%
>i Saving 5.6%
> Forward rate dihitung pada sheet "Spot Price"

How much total return (in USD and in percentage) will the investor/customer get? Does this
attractive for the consumer (you can compare with other financial asset investment)

From the calculation on the total potential loss for Saving, Deposit, and Forward for a 2-week
month, 3-months, and 6-months period in Worksheet "Saving", "Forward", and "Deposit", we
compare (Worksheet "Comparison Total Potential Loss") and conclude that if a customer wan
transact for 2-week until 6-months period, it's better for them to choose Saving, as it gives t
total potential lost for all the periods.

But if we look at the Net Customer Profits, it's better for customers to choose Deposit, for a
period as it gives the highest profit. But for a 1-month and more period, it's better for the cu
choose Forward, as it gives the highest profit. So it is attractive based on the profits given, b
back to the customer's risk appetite. If they are more risk averse, saving will be more attrac
gives the lowest total potential loss, but if they are more risk taker, Forward will be more att
it gives more profit for them than other financial asset investment.

tomer get? Does this offering

et investment)

d Forward for a 2-weeks, 1rd", and "Deposit", we could

hat if a customer wants to
e Saving, as it gives the smallest

choose Deposit, for a 2-weeks

d, it's better for the customers to
on the profits given, but it's all
ng will be more attractive, as it
ward will be more attractive, as

In terms of Risk Management Paradigm, would this product jeopardize Bank

impact to customer? (please remember most of derivative products is zero

Yes, when Bank Danamon unhedge its FX to other Banks. The impact to the
exchange rate (volatility), so the customer might incur loss from the Forwar
in the transaction without hedging, theres a possibility that the Bank will ta

d this product jeopardize Bank Danamons business sustainability? How about the
of derivative products is zero sum game)

other Banks. The impact to the customer will be when there is a change in
ight incur loss from the Forward Deposit and when Bank Danamon incurred loss
possibility that the Bank will take the fund from their customers to cover the loss.

What kind of risks that will occur for this product? Please identify
Bank Danamon will face some of these risks:
- Currency risk:
If Rupiah appreciate against dollar, Bank would be suffer loss.
- Systemic risk:
If hedging policy of one party failed that would arise multiplayer effect
including Bank Danamon
- Interest rate risk :
The Bank does't know about the future interest rate from Central Bank r
investment's value will change due to a change in the absolute level of i
between two rates, in the shape of the yield curve or in any other intere
- Trading risk :
Because the bank is doing the money trading., so there is a risk involve
monet

Risk for Customers:

- Currency risk: If Rupiah depriciate against dollar, Customer probably su
- Interest rate risk: Customer doesn't know about the future interest rate

product? Please identify

ks:

would be suffer loss.

would arise multiplayer effect to the other parties,

terest rate from Central Bank rate (it is the risk that an
hange in the absolute level of interest rates, in the spread
eld curve or in any other interest rate relationship).

ding., so there is a risk involved causing the bank to loss

st dollar, Customer probably suffer loss.

w about the future interest rate.

If the Board of Directors approved Mr Hadinata plan to run this product in Bank
Danamon, what kind of your suggestion to run proper risk management program?
Should Bank Danamon retain, control, transfer, mitigate or what? (please give your
justification)
The foreign exchange risk should be mitigate by hedging its forex to other banks or
financial institution. The bank could use option, swap, or forward as the hedging
method based on the most profitable and suitable one with the company's
objective. The risk can be controlled by imposing limits, the former consist of stop
loss limits, for example by using a DVaR or 10DVaR based on the company's policy.

n Bank
program?
e give your

er banks or
hedging
y's
st of stop
ny's policy.

Perubahan
Poin
2 Weeks
1 month
3 months
6 months
Rate
9171
2 weeks
1 month
3 months
6 months

-10.3
-5.15
-10.3
-30.9
-61.8

-9.3
-4.65
-9.3
-27.9
-55.8

-8.3
-4.15
-8.3
-24.9
-49.8

8.3
4.15
8.3
24.9
49.8

9.3
4.65
9.3
27.9
55.8

10.3
5.15
10.3
30.9
61.8

9166
9161
9140
9109

9166
9162
9143
9115

9167
9163
9146
9121

9175
9179
9196
9221

9176
9180
9199
9227

9176
9181
9202
9233

Data awal dari case, angka lain

hanya untuk menguji sensitivitas
spot price yang akan digunakan
untuk menghitung total potential
loss dan net customer profit pada
sheet selanjutnya

Saving 2 weeks

No.

Forward Point spot price

IDR
1
9176
9166
2
9176
9166
3
9176
9167
4
9176
9175
5
9176
9176
6
9176
9176

estimation
918969666
100149.26610216
918969666
100149.26610216
918969666
100149.26610216
918969666
100149.26610216
918969666
100149.26610216
918969666
100149.26610216

Saving 1 month

No.

Forward Point Spot Price

IDR
1
9180
9161
2
9180
9162
3
9180
9163
4
9180
9179
5
9180
9180
6
9180
9181

estimation
921220712
100350.840122959
921220712
100350.840122959
921220712
100350.840122959
921220712
100350.840122959
921220712
100350.840122959
921220712
100350.840122959

Saving 3 months

No.

Forward Point Spot Price

IDR
1
9199
9140
2
9199
9143
3
9199
9146
4
9199
9196
5
9199
9199
6
9199
9202

estimation
929662137
101061.217196032
929662137
101061.217196032
929662137
101061.217196032
929662137
101061.217196032
929662137
101061.217196032
929662137
101061.217196032

Saving 6 months

No.

Forward Point Spot Price

IDR
1
9227
9109
2
9227
9115
3
9227
9121
4
9227
9221
5
9227
9227

estimation
942324274
102126.831469882
942324274
102126.831469882
942324274
102126.831469882
942324274
102126.831469882
942324274
102126.831469882

9227

9233

942324274

102126.831469882

estimation-real deposit
(USD)
Customer profit Tax 20%
100260.16853357
-110.9024314097 149.26610216 29.8532204
100254.699608178
-105.4335060178
100249.231279384
-99.9651772239
100158.544084121
-9.2779819607
100153.086239495
-3.8201373348
100147.628989655
1.6371125053
total potential loss
-327.7621214416
real Deposit

real Deposit
estimation-real deposit
Customer profit Tax 20%
100562.261871775
-211.4217488154 350.840122959 70.1680246
100551.285496007
-200.4453730476
100540.311516122
-189.4713931622
100358.492731338
-7.6526083782
100347.560790907
3.279332052
100336.631231826
14.208891133
Total Potential loss
-591.5029002183

real Deposit
estimation-real deposit
Customer profit Tax 20%
101712.468899279
-651.2517032468
1061.2172 212.243439
101679.095381906
-617.8781858733
101645.743758138
-584.5265621052
101095.285614926
-34.0684188941
101062.315818881
-1.0986228483
101029.367520436
31.8496755962
Total Potential loss
-1856.9738173715

real Deposit
estimation-real deposit
Customer profit Tax 20%
103447.533699184
-1320.7022293014 2126.83146988 425.366294
103379.440272578
-1252.6088026958
103311.436430799
-1184.6049609167
102195.500821252
-68.6693513701
102129.045169788
-2.2136999061

102062.675891669
Total Potential Loss

64.155578213
-3764.6434659771

Net
Customer
Profit
119.412882

Net
Customer
Profit
280.672098

Net
Customer
Profit
848.973757

Net
Customer
Profit
1701.46518

forward 2 weeks

No.

Capital +
Forward Point spot price
Bunga (IDR)
estimation
1
9176
9166
919773409
100236.858033464
2
9176
9166
919773409
100236.858033464
3
9176
9167
919773409
100236.858033464
4
9176
9175
919773409
100236.858033464
5
9176
9176
919773409
100236.858033464
6
9176
9176
919773409
100236.858033464

forward 1 month

No.

Capital +
Forward Point Spot Price
Bunga (IDR)
estimation
1
9180
9161
922828734
100526.005909213
2
9180
9162
922828734
100526.005909213
3
9180
9163
922828734
100526.005909213
4
9180
9179
922828734
100526.005909213
5
9180
9180
922828734
100526.005909213
6
9180
9181
922828734
100526.005909213

forward 3 months

No.

Capital +
Forward Point Spot Price
Bunga (IDR)
estimation
1
9199
9140
934286203
101563.887676892
2
9199
9143
934286203
101563.887676892
3
9199
9146
934286203
101563.887676892
4
9199
9196
934286203
101563.887676892
5
9199
9199
934286203
101563.887676892
6
9199
9202
934286203
101563.887676892

forward 6 months

No.

Capital +
Forward Point Spot Price
Bunga (IDR)
estimation
1
9227
9109
951472405
103118.283892864
2
9227
9115
951472405
103118.283892864
3
9227
9121
951472405
103118.283892864
4
9227
9221
951472405
103118.283892864
5
9227
9227
951472405
103118.283892864

9227

9233

951472405

103118.283892864

estimation-real deposit
real Deposit
(USD)
Customer profit Tax 20%
100347.857461672
-110.9994282079 236.858033464 47.3716067
100342.383753083
-105.5257196183
100336.910641613
-100.0526081485
100246.144130076
-9.2860966119
100240.681511944
-3.8234784797
100235.219489118
1.6385443465
total potential loss
-328.0487867198

real Deposit
estimation-real deposit
Customer profit Tax 20%
100737.796701843
-211.7907926302 526.005909213 105.201182
100726.80116644
-200.7952572272
100715.808031102
-189.8021218887
100533.671875478
-7.665966265
100522.720852976
3.285056237
100511.77221598
14.2336932332
Total Potential loss
-592.535388541

real Deposit
estimation-real deposit
Customer profit Tax 20%
102218.378654471
-654.4909775789
1563.8877 312.777535
102184.839139868
-620.9514629763
102151.321627768
-587.4339508761
101598.1255494
-34.2378725082
101564.991764203
-1.1040873113
101531.879583535
32.0080933571
Total Potential loss
-1866.2102578936

real Deposit
estimation-real deposit
Customer profit Tax 20%
104451.807565917
-1333.5236730535 3118.28389286 623.656779
104383.053084897
-1264.7691920333
104314.389058397
-1196.1051655336
103187.619889755
-69.3359968914
103120.51908348
-2.2351906163

103053.505489066
Total Potential Loss

64.7784037972
-3801.1908143309

Net
Customer
Profit
189.486427

Net
Customer
Profit
420.804727

Net
Customer
Profit
1251.11014

Net
Customer
Profit
2494.62711

Deposit 2 weeks

No.

Forward Point spot price

IDR
1
9176
9166
2
9176
9166
3
9176
9167
4
9176
9175
5
9176
9176
6
9176
9176

estimation
919673118
100225.928270294
919673118
100225.928270294
919673118
100225.928270294
919673118
100225.928270294
919673118
100225.928270294
919673118
100225.928270294

Deposit 1 month

No.

Forward Point Spot Price

IDR
1
9180
9161
2
9180
9162
3
9180
9163
4
9180
9179
5
9180
9180
6
9180
9181

estimation
922728110
100515.044617543
922728110
100515.044617543
922728110
100515.044617543
922728110
100515.044617543
922728110
100515.044617543
922728110
100515.044617543

Deposit 3 months

No.

Forward Point Spot Price

IDR
1
9199
9140
2
9199
9143
3
9199
9146
4
9199
9196
5
9199
9199
6
9199
9202

estimation
934184329
101552.813215254
934184329
101552.813215254
934184329
101552.813215254
934184329
101552.813215254
934184329
101552.813215254
934184329
101552.813215254

Deposit 6 months

No.

Forward Point Spot Price

IDR
1
9227
9109
2
9227
9115
3
9227
9121
4
9227
9221
5
9227
9227

estimation
951368658
103107.039940853
951368658
103107.039940853
951368658
103107.039940853
951368658
103107.039940853
951368658
103107.039940853

9227

9233

951368658

103107.039940853

estimation-real deposit
real Deposit
(USD)
Customer profit Tax 20%
100336.915595195
-110.987324901 225.928270294 45.1856541
100331.442483455
-105.514213161
100325.96996877
-100.0416984758
100235.213354356
-9.2850840618
100229.751331864
-3.82306157
100224.289904614
1.6383656806
total potential loss
-328.013016489

real Deposit

estimation-real deposit
Customer profit Tax 20%
100726.81231664
-211.7676990971 515.044617543 103.008924
100715.817980183
-200.7733626402
100704.826043529
-189.7814259862
100522.709747916
-7.6651303729
100511.759919506
3.2846980366
100500.812476342
14.2321412004
Total Potential loss
-592.4707788595

real Deposit
estimation-real deposit
Customer profit Tax 20%
102207.232827554
-654.4196122995
1552.8132 310.562643
102173.696970078
-620.8837548241
102140.183112706
-587.3698974521
101587.047354487
-34.2341392324
101553.917182177
-1.1039669223
101520.808612039
32.004603215
Total Potential loss
-1866.0067675155

real Deposit
estimation-real deposit
Customer profit Tax 20%
104440.418207334
-1333.3782664814 3107.03994085 621.407988
104371.671223259
-1264.631282406
104303.014683841
-1195.974742988
103176.368377391
-69.3284365384
103109.274887745
-2.2349468926

103042.268600451
Total Potential Loss

64.7713404013
-3800.7763349051

Net
Customer
Profit
180.742616

Net
Customer
Profit
412.035694

Net
Customer
Profit
1242.25057

Net
Customer
Profit
2485.63195

Comparison Potential Loss

Forward Deposit
Saving
2 weeks -328.0488 -328.013 -327.7621
1 month -592.5354 -592.4708 -591.5029
3 months
-1866.21 -1866.007 -1856.974
6 months -3801.191 -3800.776 -3764.643
Hasil diatas merupakan summary dari Total
Potential Loss yang telah dihitung pada sheet
Saving, Forward, dan Deposit. Kesimpulannya
bahwa jika Nasabah hanya ingin menabung
selama 2 minggu hingga 6 bulan, nasabah lebih
baik memilih Saving, karena memberikan total
potential loss yang paling kecil.

Comparison Net Customer Profit

Forward Deposit
Saving
2 weeks -71301.36 180.7426 119.4129
1 month
420.8047 412.0357 280.6721
3 months
1251.11 1242.251 848.9738
6 months 2494.627 2485.632 1701.465
NO.1
Jika ternyata Spot price = Forward rate, maka
customer jika menabung dalam jangka waktu 2
minggu, dapat memilih deposit, namun jika
menabung dalam jangka waktu 1 bulan atau lebih,
sebaiknya memilih forward, dimana produk bank
tersebut memberikan profit paling banyak.