Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Risk Analysis
Submitted To:
AES Post Graduate Institute of Business Management
(HL MBA)
Submitted By:
Ankita Parikh (Roll no. 32)
(2006-08)
Nandan Exim Limited
Certificate July 14,
2007
Regards,
_________________
Dakshesh Choksi
(GM Finance)
Nandan Exim Limited
Table of contents
I. Preface
II. Acknowledgement
Foreign Exchange.................................................................1
Risk Analysis 1
Nandan Exim Limited..........................................................1
Nandan Exim Limited..........................................................2
Certificate July 14, 2007................................................2
9
Chiripal Group Profile:................................................................................9
Management: 10
Employees 10
2. ACTIVITY...............................................................................................11
1. Forward Contract...................................................................................64
(i) Fixed forward contract:.........................................................................64
a. Rupee Forward Contract........................................................................65
b. Cross Currency Forward Contract.........................................................66
(ii) Option forward contract:......................................................................66
2. Future Contract......................................................................................67
Currency Options.......................................................................................69
4. Exotic options........................................................................................71
Currency Swap...........................................................................................72
The project begins with Introduction of the Company, Other important details
of the company, Denim Industry scenario, Market Strategy of the company &
also profitability projections of the Company.
Chapter Three gives the brief overview regarding what is Foreign Exchange,
What does Foreign Exchange involve, Need of Foreign Exchange, and what
does Foreign Exchange provide?
The next chapter discusses foreign exchange exposure & financial risk at
NANDAN EXIM LTD. & in general and provides a more detailed examination
of currency exposure and risk. It provides the information about classification
of exposures, types of risks & nature of risks.
The management of Foreign Exchange risk is about use of tools and techniques
available internally and externally in global market and about complying with
rules and regulations of RBI- That is explained in 5th Chapter.
The last but not the least part of the project takes about forward rates arithmetic
and factors useful in predictions of exchange rate movement. It also mentions
Acknowledgement
Preparing a project of this nature is an arduous task and I was fortunate enough
to get support from large number of people to whom I shall always remain
grateful.
With immense pleasure I would like to express my sincere thanks and gratitude
towards Prof. Taral Pathak, Project Guide & Faculty Member, AES Post
Graduate Institute of Business Management, for having given me this privilege
of working under him and making the Report and for giving their valuable
advice, guidance, precious time and support that he offered.
The volatility of exchange rates can’t be traced to the single reason and
consequently, it becomes very difficult to precisely define the factors that affect
exchange rates.
Foreign exchange risk is related to the variability of the domestic currency
values of assets, liabilities or operating income due to unanticipated changes in
exchange rates, whereas foreign exchange exposure is what is at risk. FOREX
risk is the variability in the profit due to change in foreign exchange rate.
I. Research Objectives
3. Sources : Publications,
Articles,
The Scope of the study is limited to Forex Risk Analysis; it has nothing to do with any kind
of forecasts about currency movement.
2.1. Introduction
Founded in 1972 by Mr. Vedprakash Chiripal, the Chiripal Group has blazed a
trail to emerge as a valued group of companies in the fields of textile
processing, spinning, weaving, knitting and petrochemicals. The group is
committed to total customer satisfaction and continued excellence in quality and
service. The group offers employment to more than 20,000 people both directly
and indirectly associated with the Group.
The Group, which had started with a few power looms in 1972, has evolved into one of the
most respected and leading process houses of the country. The manufacturing facilities are
capable of handling a wide range of fabrics irrespective of the count, construction or blend.
This flexibility and complexity is one of the key strengths. Various divisions like Knits
division, Polar Fleece division, Flock Printing plant cater needs of varied customer groups.
The Group has also integrated facilities to manufacture partially oriented yarn (POY), Fully
Drawn Yarn , ensuring the supply of raw materials, required for the manufacturing various
fabrics, in the desired quantity, quality and time. The group has further diversified by setting
new project for manufacture of Bottom Weight , Denim, Home Furnishing and Cotton Knit
Fabric.
Management:
Employees
The Company employs 465 workmen falling within the definition of workmen under Section
2(s) of the Industrial Disputes Act, 1948 and 194 employees who are in the Supervisory and
above cadre. There are no contract employees. The Company is in compliance with the
provisions of the Payment of Wages Act, 1936 and Minimum Wages Act, 1948 and have
been accordingly making payment of salary and remuneration to the employees.
1. Company profile
1.1 Name: Chiripal Industries Ltd
Originally incorporated as Nandan Exim Private Limited on 9th August 1994 and
subsequently name changed to Nandan Exim Ltd. on January 16, 2004 at Ahmedabad,
Gujarat The Registered Office of the company is located at Survey No. 198/1, 203/2, Saijpur-
Gopalpur, Pirana Road, Piplej, Ahmedabad – 382405.
Nature of Activities:
The Company is engaged in the business of export of fabrics. It buys the raw material from
outside market and then get its converted into processed fabrics for exports through its
associate concerns who have their own process house.
Nature of Activities:
VFPL was started with the objective of carrying on the business of manufacturing, exporting
and trading in textiles and related Goods. It is promoted by the Ahmedabad based Chiripal
Group. The Company is engaged in manufacture of processed fabrics at its plant located at
Narol, Ahmedabad.
Nature of Activities:
SPL‘s primary focus has been on the manufacturing of high quality fabrics. It had availed FI
under Technology Upgradation Fund Scheme (TUFS) with 5% interest subsidy. The
Company's manufacturing activities comprises of:
• Processing of Fabrics
• Knitted Fabrics
• Texturised Yarn
• Polar Fleece
• Flock
Competencies
Nandan Exim - The Perfect Denim Maker Page
12
• Research & Development
The group has set its R&D focus on quality and reliability assurance and product
development. Being an integrated unit with expertise and know-how from the yarn stage and
with experts for various process stages has helped in problem solving.
• Defined Processes
Processes that are part of printing and dyeing of fabrics are carried out in-house with utmost
care. The workers are adept at various processes like Resist, Khadi, Direct and Discharge
Styles of Printing, Micro disperse, Micro vat and Leuco vat discharge, Discharge wit Khadi,
Grindal padding discharge, PV twill and PV double print, tie-and-dye marble etc.
• Quality
The fabric undergoes rigorous quality checks at various stages in the processing cycle. The
Management strongly believes in TQM that includes timely delivery and optimum quality at
reasonable prices.
• Technology
The management has adapted to newer, modern and cost effective technology. The “Kusters”
Padding Mangle and the Stormec rotary printing machines have ensured continuous
production without variations. The Group proudly claims to have completely eradicated the
center to selvedge? (C.S.) problem that used to plague the processing of larger width fabrics.
• Machinery
The Group has state-of-the-art machines for processing of fabrics, which includes machines
for wet processing starting from bleaching to finishing. Some important machines are
Automatic Jiggers, Paddles Chainless Mercerizing machine, Micro Raising & Peaching
machine, Singeing Machine, Corduroy Brushing, Storemac Rotary Printing machine for
continuous and mass production.
b
. Year of incorporation/ registration 09/08/1994
:
c
. Names of Directors and Percentage Shri Vedprakash D Chiripal
shareholding/share. : -Chairman
Shri Brijmohan Agarwal - Director
Dr. D K Jain
Shri G C Gandhi
Shri S T Shah
• Mission
The mission of the group is to become a globally recognized textile major having a dominant
market presence backed by flexibility in manufacturing, high product capacity and strong
customer relationships.
• Values
The Core Values of the group are Customer satisfaction, through Innovation and Participative
management. The group is dedicated to continuous improvement and providing better quality
products to the customer.
• Vision :
The Vision of the Group is to make Chiripal a leading textile house. In a period of five years
it wants to be reckoned as one among the top 10 Indian textile giants with a significant
presence in the domestic as well global markets. New technologies and materials will
engineer the future of Chiripal group. The ultimate aim is to make Chiripal a benchmark for
quality.
Year Milestones
1994 Incorporation and commencement of trading of fabrics in domestic and
international markets.
2003-04 Foray into manufacturing through commencement of implementation of
Weaving (Grey) project.
2004-05 Strategic Focus shifted to Denim by implementation of Denim Project.
• Operational performance
The financial tie up of Term Loan & Working Capital is already over with the Company’s
existing Bankers.
As a measure to move towards complete vertical integration, the company plans to establish
itself in the readymade garment market. The company has begin the first phase of its garment
manufacturing plant which is expected to be completed by July 2007. The company mainly
plans to target various retail chains or its garment segment. In the next phase of expansion,
the company will add capacity to manufacture an additional 5000 garments a day and this
project shall be implemented by April 2008.
Tax 32 68 30 257
The company has achieved Net Sales of Rs 59.19 crores in its first year of operation in
2004/05.
In the current year 2005/06, the Company has estimated Net Sales of Rs119.93 crores.
Total denim production capacity : 220 million meters of which 90 mmpa is exported
Domestic competition comes from Arvind Mills, Aarvee Denim and KG Denim among
others.
Lower & <300 15.50 310.0 15.80 316.2 16.13 322.5 16.40 329.0
Unorg.
TOTAL 34.30 1363.0 36.90 1510.7 39.80 1690.5 43.10 1902.0
Global jeans wear market is growing at more than 10%. Denim is the fabric for Jeans.
10%
• Marketing:
1. The Chiripal Group has been in the textile industry for over two decades. The Group
has earned market reputation over the years and has an established clientele in the
domestic market. It has a footing in Dubai, other Gulf countries, Turkey, Mauritius, USA,
UK, Spain etc., where variety of textile items are exported by the group companies.
2. The Company also proposes to export some material like Processed Fabrics,
Ready Made Garments etc. in international markets out of total turnover. The
company proposes to capitalize on the marketing experience in channeling its exports
through traders/actual users in various countries viz. Egypt, Turkey, Italy, England,
Portugal, Hong Kong, Singapore, Nepal, Spain, Ireland, Syria, France, Tanzania,
Chile, Israel, Muscat etc.
4. The major part of the sales of this project will be in domestic markets. It
proposes to capitalize on the wide network of dealers located mainly in Surat. All the
products of the Group Company are presently sold through these dealers. The
proposed fibre division shall also be marketed through the same network as the
product is essentially similar and has the same end use.
5. The Company has marketing team which strives to increase sales with existing
customers as well as for expansion of project. The domestic market for yarn is highly
fragmented. Domestic brokers and agents assist the Company in identifying buyers.
Nandan’s strategy is to become a vertically integrated player in the denim industry. The
Company has been implementing the following projects which it believes will lead to high
turnover, increase in profitability and market share.
March ending 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net Sales 336.52 336.52 336.52 336.52 336.52 336.52 336.52 336.52
(Of which 152.5 152.5 152.5 152.5 152.5 152.5 152.5 152.5
exports)
Other income 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75
Total Income 345.06 345.06 345.06 345.06 345.06 345.06 345.06 345.06
PBT/Net sales% 20.29% 20.58 21.12 21.85 22.55 23.22 23.85 24.43
% % % % % % %
PBDIT 123.96 124.96 124.96 124.96 124.96 124.96 124.96 124.96
Gross Cash 84.54 82.60 81.55 81.25 81.17 81.25 81.44 81.68
Accruals
Net Cash 82.26 79.17 78.12 77.82 77.74 77.82 78.01 78.25
Accruals
PUC 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9
Adjusted TNW 184.02 227.25 269.44 311.32 353.13 395.01 437.09 437.40
TOL/Adj. TNW 2.28 1.65 1.16 0.84 0.61 0.42 0.30 0.26
Current Ratio 1.58 1.65 1.73 1.86 1.95 2.18 2.88 3.56
PAT/Net sales% 14.44% 13.87 13.55 13.46 13.44 13.46 13.52 13.59
% % % % % % %
3.1 Introduction
The international currency market - the foreign exchange, is a special kind of the world
financial market. The Foreign Exchange, also referred to as the "Forex" or "Spot FX"
market, is the largest financial market in the world, with over $3 trillion changing hands
every single day. If you compare that to the $30 billion a day volume that the New York
Stock Exchange trades, you see how giant the Foreign Exchange really is. In fact it is thirty
times larger than all of the US Equity and Treasury markets combined!
What is traded on the Foreign Exchange? The answer is money. Forex trading is where the
currency of one nation is traded for that of another. Trader’s purpose on this market is to get
profit as the result of foreign currencies purchase and sale in accordance with a known
principle “buy cheaper – sell higher” and to convert profits made in foreign currencies, buy
or sell products and services in a foreign country, into their domestic currency. Forex trading
is always traded in pairs. The most commonly traded currency pairs are traded against the
US Dollar (USD). They are called ‘the majors'. The major currency pairs are the Euro Dollar
(EUR/USD); the British Pound (GBP/USD); the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY); and the Swiss
Franc (USD/CHF). As there is no central exchange for the Forex market, these pairs and
their crosses are traded over the telephone and online through a global network of banks,
multinational corporations, importers and exporters, brokers and currency traders i.e. the FX
market is considered as an Over The Counter (OTC) or 'inter-bank' market.
On the spot market, according to the BIS study, the most heavily traded products were:
EUR/USD - 28%
USD/JPY - 17%
GBP/USD (also called cable) - 14%
Forex is different in compare to all other sectors of the world financial system thanks to his
heightened sensibility to a large and continuously changing number of factors, accessibility
to all individual and corporative traders, exclusively high trade turnover which creates an
ensured liquidity of traded currencies and the round – the clock business hours which enable
traders to deal after normal hours or during national holidays in their country finding
markets abroad open. Just as on any other market the trading on Forex, along with an
exclusively high potential profitability, is essentially risk - bearing one.
Foreign Exchange, in common parlance, is the purchase or sale of a currency against sale or
purchases of another i.e. the exchange of one currency for another. This exchange is done at
a particular rate called the exchange rate or the FX Rate. The FX Rate is the price of one
currency in terms of another. As is true with rates,
FX rate too is for a pre-determined settlement date i.e. the date on which the actual exchange
of the currencies involved would take place.
In this global village, which has almost as many currencies as countries, business activity
would come to near standstill if each country insisted on dealing in its own currency and
none other. With growing importance of international trade and maturity in financial
markets, the major international trade participants have
The method or mechanism to conduct and settle the proceeds of International trade,
The means to obtain / provide technology, expertise and the sharing of information,
The means to minimize the risks of currency fluctuations – primarily through the use of
various tools and financial instruments, and
Trading opportunities to generate incremental income.
4.1. Introduction
Foreign Exchange business in India is regulated closely by the RBI. With Exchange Control
Regulations, the RBI ensures that involvement in the Foreign Exchange business is restricted
to certain sections of the business community only.
Brokers: Brokers are permitted to bring together buyers and sellers but cannot trade for
their own account. This means they have to strike the deal with the buyers and sellers
simultaneously.
Reasons for a remarkable growth in the last few years in The Indian FX Market:
Relaxation of controls by RBI and permitting banks to deal freely in the Inter-bank
market - this essentially is the process of economic reforms.
Better communication and availability of information - Reuters, Telerate, Knight Ridder,
RTA, Dealing System, Swift etc.
A virtual explosion in volumes in global FX market and Indian markets follows suit.
The Indian forex market is made up of banks authorized to deal in foreign exchange, known
as Authorized Dealers (ADs), foreign exchange brokers, money changers and customers -
both resident and non-resident, who are exposed to currency risk. It is predominantly a
transaction-based market with the existence of underlying forex exposure generally being an
essential requirement for market users.
The Indian forex market has grown manifold over the last several years. Average daily total
turnover has increased from US$3.67 billion in 1996-97 to US$9.71 billion in 2003-04. The
normal spot market quote has a spread of 0.50 to 1 paisa while swap quotes are available at 1
to 2 paisa spread. The derivatives market activity has shown tremendous growth as well,
especially after the MIFOR (Mumbai Inter-bank Forward Offered Rate) swap curve evolved
in 2000.
Many policy initiatives have been taken to develop the forex market. ADs have been
permitted to have larger open position and aggregate gap limits, linked to their capital. They
have been given permission to borrow overseas up to 25 per cent of their Tier-I capital and
invest up to limits approved by their respective Boards. Cash reserve requirements have been
exempted on inter-bank borrowings.
Exporters and importers are, in general, permitted to freely cancel and rebook forward
contracts booked in respect of their foreign currency exposures, except in respect of forward
contracts booked to cover import and non-trade payments falling due beyond one year. They
have also been permitted to book forward contracts on the basis of past performance
(without production of underlying documents evidencing transactions at the time of booking
the contract). Corporate have been permitted increasing access to foreign currency funds.
Residents may also enter into forward contracts with ADs in respect of transactions
denominated in foreign currency but settled in Indian rupee. They can hedge the exchange
risk arising out of overseas direct investments in equity and loan.
Residents engaged in export/import trade, are permitted to hedge the attendant commodity
price risk in international commodity exchanges/ markets using exchange traded as well as
OTC contracts.
Non-residents are permitted to hedge the currency risk arising on account of their
investments in India. However, once cancelled, these contracts cannot be rebooked for the
same exposure.
Until the early seventies, given the fixed rate regime, the foreign exchange market was
perceived as a mechanism merely to put through merchant transactions. With the collapse of
the Breton Woods agreement and the floatation of major currencies, the conduct of exchange
rate policy posed a great challenge to central banks as currency fluctuations opened up
tremendous opportunities for market players to trade in currency volatilities in a borderless
market.
The market in Indian, however, remained insulated as exchange rate controls inhibited
capital movements and the banks were required to undertake cover operations and maintain a
square position at all times.
Slowly a demand began to build up that banks in India be permitted to trade in FOREX. In
response to this demand the RBI, as a first step, permitted banks to undertake intra-day trade
in FOREX in 1978. As a consequence, the stipulation of maintaining square or near square
position was to be complied with only at close of business each day. The extent of position
which conduct be left uncovered overnight (the open position) as well as the limit up to
which dealers conduct trade during the day was to be decided by the management of the
banks.
As opportunities to make profit began to emerge, the major banks started quoting two-
way prices against the Rupee as well as in cross-currencies (Non-rupee) and gradually,
trading volumes began to increase. This was enabled by a major change in the exchange rate
As volumes increased, the appetite for profits was found to lead to the observance of widely
different practices (some of which were irregular) dictated largely by the size of the players,
their location, expertise of the dealing staff, and availability of communications facilities, it
was thought necessary to draw up a comprehensive set of guidelines covering the entire
gamut of dealing operations to be observed by banks engaged in FOREX business.
Accordingly, in 1981 the “Guidelines for Internal Control over Foreign Exchange Business”
was framed for adoption by banks.
During the eighties, deterioration in the macro-economic situation set in, ultimately
warranting a structural change in the exchange rate regime, which in turn had an impact on
the FOREX market. Large and persistent external imbalances were reflected in rising level
of internal indebtedness. The graduated depreciation of the rupee could not compensate for
the widening inflation differentials between India and the rest of the world and the exchange
rate of the Rupee was getting increasingly overvalued. The Gulf problems of August 1990,
given the fragile state of the economy, triggered off an unprecedented crisis of liquidity and
confidence. This unprecedented crisis called for the adoption of exceptional corrective steps.
The country simultaneously embarked upon measures of adjustment to stabilize the economy
and got in motion structural reforms to generate renewed impetus for stable growth.
As a first step in this direction, the RBI effected a two-step downward adjustment of the
Rupee in July 1991. Simultaneously, in order to provide a closer alignment between exports
and imports, the EXIM scrip scheme was introduced. The scheme provide a boost to exports
and with the experience gained in the working of the scheme, it was thought prudent to
institutionalize the incentive component and convey it through the price mechanism, while
simultaneously insulating essential imports from currency fluctuations. Therefore, with
effect from March 1, 1992, RBI instituted a system of dual exchange rates under the
Liberalised Exchange Rate Management System (LERMS). Under this, 40% of the exchange
earnings had to be surrendered at a rate determined by the RBI and the RBI was obliged to
sell foreign exchange only for imports of essential commodities such as oil, fertilizers, life
saving drugs etc., besides the government’s debt servicing. The balance 60% could be
converted at rates determined by the market. The scheme worked satisfactorily preparing the
market for its emerging role and the Rupee remained fairly stable with the spread between
the official and market rate hovering around 17%.
The process of liberalization continued further and it was decided to make the Rupee fully
floating with effect from March 1, 1993. The new arrangement is called Modified LERMS.
Its salient features are as under:
Effective March 1, 1993, all foreign exchange transactions, receipts and payments, both
under current and capital accounts of balance of payments are being put through by
authorized dealers at market determined exchange rates. Foreign exchange receipts and
payments, however, continued to be governed by Exchange Control Regulations. Foreign
exchange receipts are to be surrendered to the authorized dealers except in cases where the
residents have been permitted by RBI to retain them either with the banks in India or abroad.
Authorized dealers are free to retain the entire foreign exchange surrendered to them for
being sold for permissible transactions and are not required to surrender to the Reserve Bank
any portion of such receipts.
Reserve Bank of India, under Section 40 of RBI Act, 1934, was obliged to buy and sell
foreign exchange to the authorized dealers. Reserve Bank is now required to sell any
authorized person at its offices/branches US Dollars for meeting foreign exchange payments
at its exchange rates based on the market rate only for such purposes as are approved by the
Central Government. The RBI buys spot US Dollars from authorized dealers at its exchange
rate. Reserve Bank does not ordinarily buy spot Pound Sterling, Deutsche Mark and
Japanese Yen. It does not buy forward any currency. The exchange rate at which the RBI
buys and sells foreign exchange is in the ± 5% band of the market rate. Also, the RBI
announces the reference rate at 12:00 hours which is the rate at which transactions with
IMF/IBRD etc. are undertaken.
The system seeks to ensure equilibrium between demand and supply with respect to a
fairly large subset of external transactions.
It has facilitated removal of several trade restrictions and granted relaxation in exchange
control (under current account transactions).
A large number of expatriates, who are hitherto denied any advantages on their
remittances to India in line with the earnings of the exporters, are now eligible for market
rate for the full amount of remittances being in the nature of capital inflows.
This system, coupled with the exchange control relaxation in certain areas, and the
abolition of travel tax is expected to make the havala route less tempting. In this context it
needs to be remembered that smaller the gap between the average rate received by the
exporters and other earners of foreign exchange and the market rate, the lesser will be the
temptation to continue using illegal channels for remittances.
In the fiscal area, customs revenue is likely to be higher, other things being the same, to
the extent the valuation of imports would be based on the market exchange rate. It is,
however, necessary to ensure that the tariff rates together with higher input values do not
result in a sharp increase in import costs.
Countries of the world have been exchanging goods and services amongst themselves. This
has been going on from time; immemorial. The world has come a long way from the days of
barter trade. With the invention of money the figures and problems of barter trade have
disappeared. The barter trade has given way ton exchanged of goods and services for
currencies instead of goods and services.
Different countries have adopted different exchange rate system at different time. The
following are some of the exchange rate system followed by various countries:
Many countries have adopted gold standard as their monetary system during the last two
decades of the 19th century. This system was in vogue till the outbreak of World War 1.
Under this system the parties of currencies were fixed in terms of gold. There were two main
types of gold standard:
Gold was recognized as means of international settlement for receipts and payments amongst
countries. Gold coins were an accepted mode of payment and medium; of exchange in
domestic market also. A country was stated to be on gold standard if the following condition
were satisfied:
I. Monetary authority, generally the central bank of the country, guaranteed to buy and
sell gold in unrestricted amounts at the fixed price.
II. Melting gold including gold coins, and putting it to different uses was freely allowed.
IV. The total money supply in the country was determined by the quantum; of gold
available for monetary purpose.
Under this system, money in circulation was either partly of entirely paper and gold served
as reserve asset for the money supply. However, par money could be exchanged for gold at
any time. As the monetary authorities did not aspect all the paper currency to be converted
into gold, there was no need or they to hold gold for covering money supply in full.
The exchange was determined by the gold content of the respective currency. E.g. if the gold
content in Britain was 3 times US, then automatically pound sterling(GBP) was equivalent
of 3 US dollars.
After World Was 1, all European gold standard countries left in 1936, thus the gold standard
era was effectively over.
The bitter experience of war year, and danger of the recurrence looming large, forced the
countries to create a free, stable and multilateral money system, which would help in
restoration of international trade. As early as in 1943 USA and Great Britain accepted at the
Bretton Woods Conference held in July 1944 and International Monetary Fund (IMF) was
established in 1946.
Through the Smithsonian Agreement, USA devalued dollar from 35 ounce to 38 per ounce,
but could not last long.
The concept of one single currency of entire European was accepted way back in 1991 under
Maastricht Treaty, and has come into reality effective January 4 1999 and the currency now
has established independent currency since January 2001.
Professor Gustav Cassel, a Swedish economist, introduced this system. The theory, to put in
simple terms states that currencies are valued for what they can buy. Thus if 135 JPY buy a
fountain pen and the same fountain pen can be bought for USD 1, it can be inferred that
since 1 USD or 135 JPY can buy the same fountain pen, there fore USD 1 = JPY 135.
For example if country A had a higher rate of inflation as compared to country A then goods
produced in country A would become costlier as compared to goods produced in country B.
This would induce imports in to country A and also the goods produced in country A being
costlier, would lose in international competition to goods produced in country B. This
decrease in exports of country A as compared to exports from country B would lead to
demand for the currency of country B and excess supply of currency of country A. This in
turn, causes currency of country A to depreciate in comparison of currency of country B
which is having relatively more exports.
After the collapse of PPP system there came the Bretton woods System, and after the
collapse of that Smithsonian Agreement. At present the floating rate system is used in all
most countries.
The rupee was historically linked i.e. pegged to the pound sterling. Earlier, during British
regime and till late sixties, most of India’s trade transactions were dominated to pound
sterling. Under Bretton Woods system, as a member of IMF Indian declared its par value of
rupee in terms of gold. The corresponding rupee sterling rate was fixed 1 GBP = RS 18.
To be not dependent on the single currency, pound sterling on September 25, 1975 rupee
was de-linked from pound sterling and was linked to basket of currencies, the currencies
includes as well as their relative weights were kept secret so that speculators don’t get a
wind of the direction of the movement of exchange rate of rupee.
From January 1, 1984 the sterling rate schedule was abolished. The interest element, which
was hitherto in built the exchange rate, was also de-linked. The interest was to be recovered
from the customers separately. This not only allowed transparency in the exchange rate
quotations but also was in tune with international practice in this regard. FEDAI issued
guidelines for calculation of merchant rates.
The liquidity crunch in 1990 and 1991 on forex front only hastened the process. On March 1,
1992 Reserve Bank of India announced a new system of exchange rates known as
Liberalized Exchange Rate Management System.
LERMS was to make balance of payment sustainable on ongoing basis allowing market
force to play a greater role in determining exchange rate of rupee. Under LERMS, the rupee
become convertible for all approved external transactions. The exporters of goods and
services and those who received remittances from abroad were allowed to sell bulk of their
forex receipts. Similarly, those who need foreign exchange to import and travel abroad were
to buy foreign exchange from market-determined rate.
From March 1 1993 modified LERMS under which the all forex transactions, under current
and capital account, are being put through by Authorized Dealers at market determined
exchange rate.
The volatility of exchange rates can not be traced to the singe reason and consequently, it
becomes difficult to precisely define the factors that affect exchange rates. How ever, the
more important among them are as follows:
Balance of payments
Strength of economy
Fiscal policy
Interest rates
Monetary policy
Political factor
Exchange control
Central bank intervention
Speculation
Technical factors
Expectations of the foreign exchange market
As we know that Forex market for Indian currency is highly volatile where one cannot
forecast exchange rate easily, there is a mechanism which works behind the determination of
exchange rate. One of the most important factors, which affect exchange rate, is demand and
supply of domestic and foreign currency. There are some other factors also, which are
having major impact on the exchange rate determination. After studying research reports on
relationship between Rupee and Dollar of last four years we identified some factors, which
have been segregated under four heads. These are:
1. Market Situation.
2. Economic Factors.
3. Political Factors.
In India, there are big Public Sectors Units (PSUs) like ONGC, GAIL, IOC etc. all the
foreign related transactions of these PSUs are settled through the State Bank of India. E.g.
India is importing Petroleum from the other countries so payment is made through State
Bank of India in the foreign currency. When State Bank of India (SBI) sells and buys the
foreign currency then there will be noticeable movement in the rupee. If the SBI is going for
purchasing the Dollar then Rupee will be depreciated against Dollar and vice versa.
Foreign Institutional Investor’s (FIIs) inflow and outflow of the currency is having the
major impact on the currency. E.g. U.S. based company is investing their money through the
Stock markets BSE or NSE so her inflows of the Dollars is increasing and when it is selling
out their investments through these Stock markets then outflows of the Dollars are
increasing. However if the FIIs inflowing the capital in the country then there will be the
supply of the foreign currency increases and Demand for the Rupee will increases and that
will resulted appreciation in the rupee and vice versa.
Importer and Exporter’s trading is also affecting to the rupee. Like if an Indian exported
material to U.S. so he will get his payments in Dollars and that will increase the supply of
Dollars and increase of demand of rupee and that will appreciate the rupee and vice versa.
Banks can be confronted different positions like oversold or over bought position in the
foreign currency. So bank will try to eradicate these positions by selling or purchasing the
foreign currency. So this will be increased or decreased demand and supply of the currency.
And that will cause to appreciation or depreciation in the currency.
2. Economic Factors:
In the Forex Market Economic factors of the country is playing the pivot role. Every country
is depending on its prospect economy. If there will be change in any economy factors, which
will directly or indirectly affected to Forex market. Here there are two types of economic
factors. These are as follows:
A. Internal Factors.
B. External Factors.
A. Internal Factors:
B. External Factors:
3. Political Factors:
In India election held every five years mean thereby one party has rule for the five years. But
from the 1996 India was facing political instability and this type of political instability has
created hefty problem in the different market especially in Forex market, which is highly
volatile. In fact in the year 1999 due to political uncertainty in the BJP Government the
rupee has depreciated by 30 paise in the month of April. So we can say that political can
become important factor to determine foreign exchange in India.
4. Special Factors:
Till now we have seen the general factors, which will affect the Forex market in daily
business. And on that factors the different players in the market have taken the decision. But
some times some event happened in such a way that it will really change the whole scenario
of the market so we can called that event special factors. However traders have to really
consider those things and take the decisions. We will see these types of factors in detailed:
In the year 1998, when BJP government has done “Pokhran Nuclear Test” at that time
rupee has been depreciated around 85 paise in day and 125 paise in seven days. Her main
fear was that U.S., Australia and other countries have stop to sanctions the loans So this type
of event will have major impact on the market. And due to this the decision procedure of the
trader also varies.
In the year 2000,India has faced Kargil war, which is also affected to the market. By this
war the defense expenditures are raised and due to that there will be increase in the fiscal
deficit. And become obstacle in the growth of the economy. So this type of event has impact
on the Forex market.
5.1.1. Description
Foreign exchange risk is related to the variability of the domestic currency values of assets,
liabilities or operating income due to unanticipated changes in exchange rates, whereas
foreign exchange exposure is what is at risk.
Foreign currency exposures and the attendant risk arise whenever a company has an income
or expenditure or an asset or liability in a currency other than that of the balance-sheet
currency. Indeed exposures can arise even for companies with no income, expenditure, asset
or liability in a currency different from the balance-sheet currency.
When there is a condition prevalent where the exchange rates become extremely volatile the
exchange rate movements destabilize the cash flows of a business significantly. Such
destabilization of cash flows that affects the profitability of the business is the risk from
foreign currency exposures.
While such financial hedging instruments as forward contract, swap, future and option
contracts are well known, hedging through the choice of invoice currency, an operational
technique, has not received much attention. The firm can shift, share or diversify exchange
risk by appropriately choosing the currency of invoice. Firm can avoid exchange rate risk by
invoicing in domestic currency, there by shifting exchange rate risk on buyer.
As a practical matter, however, the firm may not be able to use risk shifting or sharing as
much as it wishes to for fear of losing sales to competitors. Only an exporter with substantial
market power can use this approach. Further, if the currencies of both the exporter and
importer are not suitable for settling international trade, neither party can resort to risk
shifting to deal with exchange exposure.
Another operational technique the firm can use to reduce transaction exposure is leading and
lagging foreign currency receipts and payments. To “lead” means to pay or collect early,
where as “lag” means to pay or collect late. The firm would like to lead soft currency
receivables and lag hard currency receivables to avoid the loss from depreciation of the soft
currency and benefit from the appreciation of the hard currency. For the same reason, the
firm will attempt to lead the hard currency payables and lag soft currency payables. To the
extent that the firm can effectively implement the Lead/Lag strategy, the transaction
exposure the firm faces can be reduced.
Translation exposure is defined as the likely increase or decrease in the parent company’s
net worth caused by a change in exchange rates since last translation. This arises when an
asset or liability is valued at the current rate. No exposure arises in respect of
assets/liabilities valued at historical rate, as they are not affected by exchange rate
differences. Translation exposure is measured as the net of the foreign currency denominated
assets and liabilities valued at current rates of exchange. If exposed assets exceed the
exposed liabilities, the concern has a ‘positive’ or ‘long’ or ‘asset’ translation exposure, and
exposure is equivalent to the net value. If the exposed liabilities exceed the exposed assets
and results in ‘negative’ or ‘short’ or ‘liabilities’ translation exposure to the extent of the net
difference.
Translation exposure arises from the need to "translate" foreign currency assets or liabilities
into the home currency for the purpose of finalizing the accounts for any given period. A
typical example of translation exposure is the treatment of foreign currency borrowings.
Consider that a company has borrowed dollars to finance the import of capital goods worth
$10000. When the import materialized the exchange rate was say Rs 30 per dollar. The
imported fixed asset was therefore capitalized in the books of the company for Rs 300000.
In the ordinary course and assuming no change in the exchange rate the company would
have provided depreciation on the asset valued at Rs 300000 for finalizing its accounts for
the year in which the asset was purchased. If at the time of finalization of the accounts the
exchange rate has moved to say Rs 35 per dollar, the dollar loan has to be translated
involving translation loss of Rs50000. The book value of the asset thus becomes 350000 and
consequently higher depreciation has to be provided thus reducing the net profit.
Thus, Translation loss or gain is measured by the difference between the value of assets and
liabilities at the historical rate and current rate. A company which has a positive exposure
will have translation gains if the current rate for the foreign currency is higher than the
historic rate. In the same situation, a company with negative exposure will post translation
loss. The position will be reversed if the currency rate for foreign currency is lesser than its
historic rate of exchange. The translation gain/loss is shown as a separate component of the
shareholders’ equity in the balance-sheet. It does not affect the current earnings of the
company.
In simple words, economic exposure to an exchange rate is the risk that a change in the rate
affects the company's competitive position in the market and hence, indirectly the bottom-
line. Broadly speaking, economic exposure affects the profitability over a longer time span
than transaction and even translation exposure. Under the Indian exchange control, while
translation and transaction exposures can be hedged, economic exposure cannot be hedged.
Asset exposure:
Let us discuss the case of asset exposure. For convenience, assume that dollar inflation is
non random. Then, from the perspective of the U.S. firm that owns an asset in Britain, the
exposure can be measured by the coefficient ‘b’ in regressing the dollar value ‘P’ of the
British asset on the dollar/pound exchange rate ‘S’.
P=a+b*S+e
Where ‘a’ is the regression constant and ‘e’ is the random error term with mean zero, P =
SP*, where P* is the local currency (pound) price of asset. It is obvious from the above
equation that the regression coefficient ‘b’ measures the sensitivity of the dollar value of
asset (P) to the exchange rate (S). If the regression coefficient is zero, the dollar value of the
asset is independent of exchange rate movement, implying no exposure. On the basis of
above analysis, one can say that exposure is the regression coefficient. Statistically, the
exposure coefficient, ‘b’, is defined as follows:
Next, we show how to apply the exposure measurement technique using numerical
examples. Suppose that a U.S. firm has an asset in Britain whose local currency price is
random. For simplicity, let us assume that there are three states of the world, with each state
equally likely to occur. The future local currency price of this British asset as well as the
future exchange rate will be determined, depending on the realized state of the world.
Operating exposure:
Operating exposure can be defined as “the extent to which the firm’s operating cash flows
would be affected by random changes in exchange rates”. Operating exposure may affect in
two different ways to the firm, viz., competitive effect and conversion effect.
Adverse exchange rate change increase cost of import which makes firm’s product costly
thus firm’s position becomes less competitive, which is competitive effect.
Adverse exchange rate change may reduce value of receivable to the exporting firm which is
called conversion effect.
When the domestic currency is strong or expected to become strong, eroding the competitive
position of the firm, it can choose to locate production facilities in a foreign country where
costs are low due to either the undervalued currency or under priced factors of production.
Recently, Japanese car makers, including Nissan and Toyota, have been increasingly shifting
production to U.S. manufacturing facilities in order to mitigate the negative effect of the
strong yen on U.S. sales. German car makers such as Daimler Benz and BMW also decided
to establish manufacturing facilities in the U.S. for the same reason. Also, the firm can
choose to establish and maintain production facilities in multiple countries to deal with the
effect of exchange rate changes. Consider Nissan, which has manufacturing facilities in the
U.S. and Mexico, as well as in Japan. Multiple manufacturing sites provide Nissan with
great deal of flexibility regarding where to produce, given the prevailing exchange rates.
When the yen appreciated substantially against the dollar, the Mexican peso depreciated
against the dollar in recent years. Under this sort of exchange rate development, Nissan may
choose to increase production in the U.S. and especially in Mexico, in order to serve the U.S.
market. This is, in fact, how Nissan has reacted to the rising yen in recent years.
Even if the firm manufacturing facilities only in the domestic country, it can substantially
lessen the effect of exchange rate changes by sourcing from where input costs are low.
Facing the strong yen in recent years, many Japanese firms are adopting the same practice. It
is well known that Japanese manufacturers, especially in the car and consumer electronics
industries, depend heavily on parts and intermediate products from such low cost countries
as Thailand, Malaysia, and China. Flexible sourcing need not be confined just to materials
and parts. Firms can also hire low cost guest workers from foreign countries instead of high
cost domestic workers in order to be competitive.
Another way of dealing with exchange exposure is to diversify the market for the firm’s
products as much as possible. Suppose that GE is selling power generators in Mexico as well
as Germany. Reduced sales in Mexico due to the dollar appreciation against the peso can be
compensated by increased sales in Germany due to dollar depreciation against the euro. As a
result, GE’s overall cash flows will be much more stable than would be the case if GE sold
only in one foreign market, either Mexico or Germany. As long as exchange rates do not
always move in the same direction, the firm can stabilize its operating cash flow by
diversifying its export market.
Investment in R&D activities can allow the firm to maintain and strengthen its competitive
position in the face of adverse exchange rate movements. Successful R&D efforts allow the
firm to cut costs and enhance productivity. In addition, R&D efforts can lead to the
introduction of new and unique products for which competitors offer no close substitutes.
Since the demand for unique products tend to be highly inelastic, the firm would be less
exposed to exchange risk. At the same time, the firm can strive to create a perception among
consumers that its product is indeed different from those offered by competitors. This helps
firm to pass-through any adverse effect of exchange rate on to the customers.
Foreign Exchange dealing is a business that one get involved in, primarily to obtain
protection against adverse rate movements on their core international business. Foreign
Exchange dealing is essentially a risk-reward business where profit potential is substantial
but it is extremely risky too.
1) FX deals are across country borders and therefore, often foreign currency prices are
subject to controls and restrictions imposed by foreign authorities. Needless to say, these
controls and restrictions are invariably dictated by their own domestic factors and economy.
2) FX deals involve two currencies and therefore, rates are influenced by domestic as
well as international factors.
3) The FX market is a 24-hour global market and overseas developments can affect
rates significantly.
4) The FX market has great depth and numerous players shifting vast sums of money.
FX rates therefore, can move considerably, especially when speculation against a currency
rises.
5) FX markets are characterized by advanced technology, communications and speed.
Decision-making has to be instantaneous.
5.2.2. Description
In simple word FOREX risk is the variability in the profit due to change in foreign exchange
rate. Suppose the company is exporting goods to foreign company then it gets the payment
after month or so then change in exchange rate may effect in the inflows of the fund.
1) Position Risk
2) Gap or Maturity or Mismatch Risk
3) Translation Risk
4) Operational Risk
5) Credit Risk
1. Position Risk
The exchange risk on the net open FX position is called the position risk. The position can
be a long/overbought position or it could be a short/oversold position. The excess of foreign
currency assets over liabilities is called a net long position whereas the excess of foreign
currency liabilities over assets is called a net short position. Since all purchases and sales are
at a rate, the net position too is at a net/average rate. Any adverse movement in market rates
would result in a loss on the net currency position.
For example, where a net long position is in a currency whose value is depreciating, the
conversion of the currency will result in a lower amount of the corresponding currency
resulting in a loss, whereas a net long position in an appreciating currency would result in a
profit.
Given the volatility in FX markets and external factors that affect FX rates, it is prudent to
have controls and limits that can minimize losses and ensure a reasonable profit.
A) Daylight Limit : Refers to the maximum net open position that can be built up
a trader during the course of the working day. This limit is set currency-wise and the overall
position of all currencies as well.
B) Overnight Limit : Refers to the net open position that a trader can leave
overnight – to be carried forward for the next working day. This limit too is set currency-
wise and the overall overnight limit for all currencies. Generally, overnight limits are about
15% of the daylight limits.
A) Individual Gap Limit : This determines the maximum mismatch for any
calendar month; currency-wise.
B) Aggregate Gap Limit : Is the limit fixed for all gaps, for a currency,
irrespective of their being long or short. This is worked out by adding the absolute values of
all overbought and all oversold positions for the various months, i.e. the total of the
individual gaps, ignoring the signs. This limit, too, is fixed currency-wise.
C) Total Aggregate Gap Limit : Is the limit fixed for all aggregate gap
limits in all currencies.
3. Translation Risk
Translation risk refers to the risk of adverse rate movement on foreign currency assets and
liabilities funded out of domestic currency.
B) Follow-up and Confirmation: Quite often deals are transacted over the phone
directly or through brokers. Every oral deal has to be followed up immediately by written
confirmations; both by the dealing departments and by back-office or support staff. This
would ensure that errors are detected and rectified immediately.
E) Float transactions: Often retail departments and other areas are authorised to
create exposures. Proper measures should be taken to make sure that such departments and
areas inform the authorised persons/departments of these exposures, in time. A proper
system of maximum amount trading authorities should be installed. Any amount in excess of
such maximum should be transacted only after proper approvals and rate.
Contract risk: Where the counter party fails prior to the value date. In such a case,
the FX deal would have to be replaced in the market, to liquidate the FX exposure. If there
has been an adverse rate movement, this would result in an exchange loss. A contract limit is
set counter party-wise to manage this risk.
Clean risk: Where the counter party fails on the value date i.e. it fails to deliver the
currency, while you have already paid up. Here the risk is of the capital amount and the loss
can be substantial. Fixing a daily settlement limit as well as a total outstanding limit, counter
party-wise, can control such a risk.
Sovereign Risk: refers to risks associated with dealing into another country. These
risks would be an account of exchange control regulations, political instability etc. Country
limits are set to counter this risk.
Even though foreign exchange risk and exposure have been central issues of international
financial management for many years, a considerable degree of confusion remains about
their nature and measurement.
For instance, it is not uncommon to hear the term “Foreign Exchange Exposure” used
interchangeable with the term “Foreign Exchange Risk” when in fact they are conceptually
completely different. Foreign Exchange Risk is related to the variability of domestic
currency values of assets liabilities or operating incomes due to unanticipated changes in
exchange rates.
Description
As a business engaged in the buying and selling of goods overseas, a company is exposed to
foreign exchange risks. These risks arise from fluctuations in the currency market, which
will impact outgoing payments for imports or incoming funds from exports. Changes in the
exchange rate between two currencies will translate into additional profits or losses to your
payables or receivables. Your amount of risk depends on factors such as the volatility of the
currencies involved and the value of the contract.
To Minimize Costs
To Maximize Revenue
To Stabilize Margins in the Future
A very popular textile company with a Rupee Balance Sheet, contracts a Swiss Franc Loan
at a USD/CHF rate near 1.25 towards the end of 1996, after which the Swiss Franc weakens
to 1.45 by early 1997 and then trades in a range of 1.45-1.55 through the greater part of
1997-1998. It strengthens to about 1.35 by end of 1998.
The company accounts for the Loan in its books at 1.50 and wants to “earn back” the “loss
between 1.50 and 1.35” through “Hedging Operations” which call upon it to sell USD/CHF
in the Forward Market and earn Cash Profits on such Hedges, which will be booked in its
Profit and Loss accounts.
Note, that the focus is on CASH Profits/ Losses generated through “Hedges” and not on the
VALUE of the Loan, which is a Balance Sheet item.
The company starts its “Hedging Operations” near the epochal birth of the Euro. As we all
remember, 1999 was the year in which the Euro was born near 1.17 against the Dollar and
caused much anguish in the market by weakening throughout the year to end just above
Parity. In the process it dragged the Swiss Franc down against the Dollar.
The company, to its dismay, found itself making Cash Losses on its “Sell USD/CHF”
hedges. To make up the initial losses, it sold more USD/CHF in ever increasing larger
amounts right through the year, trying to earn Cash Profits on interim bouts of Dollar
weakness against the Swiss Franc. Huge Sell USD/CHF trades were daily entered into for
making a few pips profits, not realizing that the trades were all against the larger Trend.
Its focus on the Cash Profit/ Loss made the company overlook the fact that the ongoing
weakness in the Swiss Franc was decreasing the value of the Loan on its Balance Sheet.
Nandan Exim - The Perfect Denim Maker Page
53
In an attempt to first earn “hedging profits” and then to cover losses against the trend, it
ended up with a USD 1 million loss, negating, to a large extent, the real Valuation Gain on
its Balance Sheet. Had its focus been on the Balance Sheet, the company would have
stopped its “Hedging Operations” after the first few hedges made Cash Losses and proved
that the market was actually reducing the value of its primary Loan exposure!
Conclusion:
The moral of the story is that a lot of thought and deliberation should go into deciding upon
correct objectives before commencing market operations. In a subsequent issue I shall take
up the case of one of the competitors company, which started out with the correct objectives,
but lost its focus and underperformed as a result.
Almost immediately thereafter, the Dollar dived against the Yen, to hit an all time low of
79.80 in April 1995. There were 3 months of intense agony. The company had never
undertaken such a large forex deal. The Board was on the edge. Had the deal gone horribly
wrong? The Risk Manager reminded the Board that the objective was Risk Diversification
and only 10% of the loan book had been put on the line. Further, the deal had a 3 year tenor.
The market eventually turned around and the danger passed. The Swap came back into
money. Now the Board was tempted to square off the trade and book whatever small profit
was available. Again the Risk Manager stuck to his guns, saying the Objective was long term
Currency Diversification, not short term Trading Profits. The Board backed down and the
Swap was allowed to run its course.
The gains from the deal (which in itself was well conceptualized), was realized by remaining
focused on the Objective.
In the case of a corporate that stuck to its long term objective even in bad times on a
currency swap that went very bad initially; but ultimately booked handsome gains at the end
of three years. We now present the case of a corporate that initially failed to realize profits
because it lost focus of its objectives. But it learnt from its mistake and made good the next
time the same opportunity presented itself.
Objective: To diversify a part of the exposure into another currency to reduce Currency
Concentration Risk, through off-balance-sheet transactions.
Forecast on 26-Feb-04: While below 1.30, there were chances of EURUSD falling
to 1.18 (5.2%) over 2-3 months.
Recognizing the opportunity, the Corporate again bought EUR Put/ USD Call Options with
the same objective of diversifying the currency composition of its Imports as also of
lowering the cost of Imports.
The market again hesitated for a while after the deal was done, causing some anxiety to the
Corporate. But remembering the experience of 2004, it stood its ground. Finally the Euro fell
and the Corporate made a very decent amount of money on expiry of the Option. This
success has now given the Corporate enough confidence to be more proactive in managing
its Currency Exposures.
Conclusion:
It’s alright to make mistakes. But learn from it and do better next time. Do not give up on
Forex Risk Management as "speculation" if things don't work out the first time. And, things
do work out if the objective is well thought out, the hedge strategy is well laid out and you
work according to plan.
Understanding Risk
Risk is not just limited to imports and exports. It can exist for any area of a business that has
an international component and requires foreign funds. For example, these can include:
The NANDAN EXIM Ltd. received an export order of Textile Raw material to XYZ Ltd
Amount
Quantity
Date in US $
Date
31-Dec 1Forward
container Rate 60,000
15-Jan 1.5 Container 90,000
31-Dec 48.20
31-Jan 1 container 60,000
15-Jan 48.27
14-Feb 2 container 1,20,000
31-Jan 48.34
28-Feb 1 container 60,000
14-Feb 48.40
390,000
28-Feb 48.47
Strategy: -
As the dollar is depreciating since last 9 months and still dollar is looking week the strategy
is, exporter should cover full.
Result: -
Date Forward Sport Net Exposure Profit
Rate Rate Differenc
206700
Conclusion:
As forward points is nothing but an interest differential and in the case of INR / US $ it is
added to the spot rate. So we will get good price in forward contract and actual prices are on
a tend to decries the exporter gets double benefits by booking forward contract. So exporter
should cover all its exposure to avoid fluctuation risk and to gain form good forward rates.
Strategy: -
As Indian Rupee was appreciating against USD since last 9 months and the chances of again
appreciation were likely, the importer should not cover anything and he should live open.
Result: -
Spot rate on 28th February, 2006 1 USD = Rs. 47.75
Profit will be 48.05 – 47.75 = 0.30 Rs. * 1,00,000 = Rs. 30,000
Nandan Exim - The Perfect Denim Maker Page
58
Conclusion:
Hear forward rates are higher than spot rates and the trend of exchange rate (INR / US $) is
declining. So, the importer should not cover anything. If it covers he has to buy a high price
forward and in the future the prices are lower than a spot rate. So he will be cost on both
ways – by paying high price in future and not taking gain form decries in exchange rate. So
any exporter dealing in US $ should not cover in this scenario.
Result
Interes Amount Forwar
Date Principal t (US $) d Rates
Total
Profit 106600 267800 265200 262600 902200
Conclusion:
From the above table we can see that up to the 15th April we have already made a profit of
Rs. 902200 and in further the profit will increase as dollar goes down. At present dollar is
looking week so we don’t cover but if dollar looks strong the company should cover the
remaining dates and transaction.
Hedging has come into existence because of the prevalence of risks in every business. These
risks could be physical, operating and investment and credit risks. Some of the risks such as
movements in commodity markets may be beyond our control.
Hedging provide a means of managing such risks. The need to manage external risk is thus
one pillar of the derivative market. Parties wishing to manage their risks are called hedgers.
Some people and businesses are in the business of taking risks to make money that is for the
possibility of a reward. These parties represent another pillar of derivative market and are
known as speculators.
Some derivative market participants' look for pricing differences and markets mistakes and
take advantage of these. These mistakes thus eventually disappear and never become too
large. Such participants are known as arbitrageurs.
Introduction
The gradual liberalization of Indian economy has resulted in substantial inflow of foreign.
The gradual liberalization of Indian economy has resulted in substantial inflow of foreign
capital into India. Simultaneously dismantling of trade barriers has also facilitated the
integration of domestic economy with world economy. With the globalization of trade and
relatively free movement of financial assets, risk management through derivatives products
has become a necessity in India also, like in other developed and developing countries.
As Indian businesses become more global in their approach, evolution of a broad based,
active and liquid forex derivatives markets is required to provide them with a spectrum of
hedging products for effectively managing their foreign exchange exposures.
The global market for derivatives has grown substantially in the recent past. The Foreign
Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity survey conducted by Bank for International
Settlements (BIS) points to this increased activity. The total estimated notional amount of
outstanding OTC contracts increasing to $111 trillion at end-December 2001 from $94
trillion at end-June 2000. This growth in the derivatives segment is even more substantial
when viewed in the light of declining activity in the spot foreign exchange markets.
The turnover in traditional foreign exchange markets declined substantially between 1998
and 2001. In April 2001, average daily turnover was $1,200 billion, compared to $1,490
billion in April 1998, a 14% decline when volumes are measured at constant exchange rates.
Whereas the global daily turnover during the same period in foreign exchange and interest
rate derivative contracts, including what are considered to be "traditional" foreign exchange
derivative instruments, increased by an estimated 10% to $1.4 trillion.
In India, the economic liberalization in the early nineties provided the economic rationale for
the introduction of FX derivatives. Business houses started actively approaching foreign
markets not only with their products but also as a source of capital and direct investment
opportunities. With limited convertibility on the trade account being introduced in 1993, the
environment became even more conducive for the introduction of these hedge products.
Hence, the development in the Indian forex derivatives market should be seen along with the
steps taken to gradually reform the Indian financial markets. As these steps were largely
instrumental in the integration of the Indian financial markets with the global markets.
Since early nineties, we are on the path of a gradual progress towards capital account
convertibility. The emphasis has been shifting away from debt creating to non-debt creating
inflows, with focus on more stable long term inflows in the form of foreign direct investment
and portfolio investment. In 1992 foreign institutional investors were allowed to invest in
Indian equity & debt markets and the following year foreign brokerage firms were also
allowed to operate in India. Non Resident Indians (NRIs) and Overseas Corporate Bodies
(OCBs) were allowed to hold together about 24% of the paid up capital of Indian companies,
which was further raised to 40% in 1998. In 1992, Indian companies were also encouraged
to issue ADRs/GDRs to raise foreign equity, subject to rules for repatriation and end use of
funds. These rules were further relaxed in 1996 after being tightened in 1995 following a
spurt in such issues. Presently, the raising of ADRs/GDRs/FCCBs is allowed through the
automatic route without any restrictions.
FDI norms have been liberalized and more and more sectors have been opened up for
foreign investment. Initially, investments up to 51% were allowed through the automatic
route in 35 priority sectors. The approval criteria for FDI in other sectors was also relaxed
and broadened. In 1997, the list of sectors in which FDI could be permitted was expanded
further with foreign investments allowed up to 74% in nine sectors. Ever since 1991, the
areas covered under the automatic route have been expanding. This can be seen from the fact
that while till 1992 inflows through the automatic route accounted for only 7% of total
inflows, this proportion has increased steadily with investments under the automatic route
accounting for about 25% of total investment in India in 2001.
In 2000, the Indian Government permitted the raising of fresh ECBs for an amount up to
USD 50 mn and refinancing of all existing ECBs through the automatic route. Corporates no
longer had to seek prior approval from the Ministry of Finance for fresh ECBs of up to USD
50 mn and for refinancing of prevailing ECBs.
Thus, while the inflows from abroad have been freed to a large extent, outflows associated
with these inflows like interest, profits, sale proceeds and dividend etc are completely free of
any restriction. All current earnings of NRIs in the form of dividends, rent etc has been made
fully repairable.
But convertibility in terms of outflows from residents, however, still remains more restricted
although these restrictions are gradually reduced. Residents are not allowed to hold assets
abroad. However, direct investment abroad is permissible through joint ventures and wholly
owned subsidiaries.
An Indian entity can make investments in overseas joint ventures and wholly owned
subsidiaries to the tune of USD 100 mn during one financial year under the automatic route.
At the same time investments in Nepal and Bhutan are allowed to the tune of INR 3.50 bn in
one financial year. Units located in Special Economic zones (SEZs) can invest out of their
balances in the foreign currency account. Such investments are however subject to an overall
annual cap of USD 500 mn. Indian companies are also permitted to make direct investments
without any limit out of funds raised through ADRs/GDRs.
Recently mutual funds have been allowed to invest in rated securities of countries with
convertible currencies within existing limits.
A deep and liquid market for the underlying is necessary for the development of an efficient
derivative market. The easy movement of capital between different markets and currencies is
essential to eliminate pricing discrepancies and efficient functioning of the markets. The
steps mentioned above to increase convertibility on the capital account and the current
account aided the process of integration of the Indian financial markets with international
markets. These reforms set in motion the process of the development of the forex derivatives
The Forex derivative products that are available in Indian financial markets can be sectored
into three broad segments viz. forwards, options, currency swaps. We take a look at all of
these segments in detail:
1. Forward Contract
Forward exchange contract is a device which can afford adequate protection to an importer
or an exporter against exchange risk. Forward currency contracts are most widely used tools
for foreign exchange risk management. Under a forward exchange contract a broker and a
customer or another banker enter into a contract to buy or sell a fixed amount of foreign
currency on a specified future date at a predetermined rate of exchange.
“The forward contract under which delivery of foreign exchange should take place on a
specified future date is known as a fixed forward contract.”
For instance if on 5th march a customer enters into three months forward contract, with his
bank to sell GBP 10000. It means customer would be presenting a bill or any other
An important segment of the forex derivatives market in India is the Rupee forward
contracts market. This has been growing rapidly with increasing participation from
corporate, exporters, importers, banks and FIIs. Till February 1992, forward contracts were
permitted only against trade related exposures and these contracts could not be cancelled
except where the underlying transactions failed to materialize. In March 1992, in order to
provide operational freedom to corporate entities, unrestricted booking and cancellation of
forward contracts for all genuine exposures, whether trade related or not, were permitted.
Although due to the Asian crisis, freedom to rebook cancelled contracts was suspended,
which has been since relaxed for the exporters but the restriction still remains for the
importers.
RBI Regulations:
The exposures for which the rupee forward contracts are allowed under the existing RBI
notification for various participants are as follows:
i. For Residents:
Cross currency forwards are also used to hedge the foreign currency exposures, especially by
some of the big Indian corporate. The regulations for the cross
currency forwards are quite similar to those of Rupee forwards, though with minor
differences. For example, a corporate having underlying exposure in Yen, may book forward
contract between Dollar and Sterling. Here even though its exposure is in Yen, it is also
exposed to the movements in Dollar vis-à-vis other currencies. The regulations for rebooking
and cancellation of these contracts are also relatively relaxed. The activity in this segment is
likely to increase with increasing convertibility of the capital account.
With a view to eliminating the difficulty in fixing the exact date for delivery of foreign
exchange the customer may be given a choice of delivering the foreign exchange during a
given period of days.
“An arrangement whereby the customer can sell or buy from the bank foreign exchange on
any day during a given period of time at a predetermined rate of exchange is known as
Option forward contract.”
2. The branch may not be fed with forward rates of all currencies by the Dealing Room.
Even for major currencies forwards rates for standard delivery period may only be
available at the branch. If the rate for the currency and/or delivery period is not available,
the branch should contact the Dealing Room over phone or telex and obtain rate.
3. If the rate quoted by the bank is acceptable to the customer, he is required to submit an
application to the bank along with documentary evidence to support the application, such
as the sale contract.
4. After verification of the application and the documentary evidences submitted, the bank
prepares a ‘Forward Exchange Contract’.
2. Future Contract
As mentioned earlier, Indian forwards market is relatively illiquid for the standard maturity
contracts as most of the contracts traded are for the month ends only. One of the reasons for
the market makers’ reluctance to offer these contracts could be the absence of a well-
developed term money market. It could be argued that given the future like nature of Indian
forwards market, currency futures could be allowed.
Currency future is the price of a particular currency for settlement in a specified future
month. A currency futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell, on the futures exchange, a
standard quantity of a foreign currency at a future date, at the agreed price. Counterparty to a
futures contract is the futures exchange which ensures that all contracts will be honoured.
This effectively eliminates the credit risk to very large extent.
The exchange oversees the work related to margins, account reconciliation, delivery
revaluation, and settlements. The standardization of contract size, settlement date, tick
values, revaluation procedure etc. make the futures contract a popular tool for hedging and
trading with high liquidity and credibility. All futures contracts are dealt with the exchange
through the exchange members. The members are required to maintain a margin accounts
with the exchange against which they are permitted to trade.
All open positions are revalued at the close of business everyday, and margin amount set
accordingly. The members have their clients maintain margin accounts with them, and they
in turn revalue their clients’ open position at close of everyday.
In India Currency futures in Indian Rupees is not available otherwise in world Forex market
all major currency futures are available. Currency futures are traded on futures exchange and
the most popular exchanges are the ones where the contracts are transferable freely. The
Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX), and the International Monetary
Marker, Chicago (IMM) are the most popular futures exchanges. There are smaller futures
exchanges in London, Sydney, Tokyo, Frankfurt, Paris, Brussels, Zurich, Milan, New York,
and Philadelphia. The main currencies traded on the exchanges are Japanese Yen, Sterling
Pound, Swiss Franc, Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar. The settlement months are the
spot month, January, March, April, June, July, September, October and December. The last
day of trading is the 3rd Wednesday of the delivery month.
Currency futures, since they are traded on organized exchanges, also confer benefits from
concentrating order flow and providing a transparent venue for price discovery, while
over-the-counter forward contracts rely on bilateral negotiations.
Two characteristics of futures contract- their minimal margin requirements and the low
transactions costs relative to over-the-counter markets due to existence of a
clearinghouse, also strengthen the case of their introduction. T
Credit risks are further mitigated by daily marking to market of all futures positions with
gains and losses paid by each participant to the clearinghouse by the end of trading
session.
Moreover, futures contracts are standardized utilizing the same delivery dates and the
same nominal amount of currency units to be traded. Hence, traders need only establish
the number of contracts and their price.
Contract standardization and clearing house facilities mean that price discovery can
proceed rapidly and transaction costs for participants are relatively low.
Currency Options
An option is a unique financial instrument or contract that confers upon the holder or the
buyer thereof, the right but not an obligation to buy or sell an underlying asset, at a specified
price, on or up to a specified date. In short, the option buyer can simply let the right lapse by
not exercising it. On the other hand, if the option buyer chooses to exercise the right, the
seller of the option has an obligation to perform the contract according to the terms agreed.
The objective of including currency options in your hedging arsenal has obviously to be to
get the best protection available at the least possible cost. This is easier said than done.
However, a corporate with foreign currency payables say in euro could use the following
decision tree as a guide:
The Reserve Bank of India has permitted authorized dealers to offer cross currency options
to the corporate clients and other interbank counter parties to hedge their foreign currency
exposures. Before the introduction of these options the corporates were permitted to hedge
their foreign currency exposures only through forwards and swaps route. Forwards and
swaps do remove the uncertainty by hedging the exposure but they also result in the
elimination of potential extraordinary gains from the currency position. Currency options
provide a way of availing of the upside from any currency exposure while being protected
from the downside for the payment of an upfront premium.
RBI Regulations:
These contracts were allowed with the following conditions:
These currency options can be used as a hedge for foreign currency loans provided
that the option does not involve rupee and the face value does not exceed the outstanding
amount of the loan, and the maturity of the contract does not exceed the un-expired maturity
of the underlying loan.
Such contracts are allowed to be freely rebooked and cancelled. Any premium
payable on account of such transactions does not require RBI approval Cost reduction
strategies like range forwards can be used as long as there is no net inflow of premium to the
customer.
Banks can also purchase call or put options to hedge their cross currency proprietary
trading positions. But banks are also required to fulfill the condition that no ’stand alone’
transactions are initiated.
If a hedge becomes naked in part or full owing to shrinking of the portfolio, it may be
allowed to continue till the original maturity and should be marked to market at regular
intervals.
Corporate in India can use instruments such as forwards, swaps and options for edging cross-
currency exposures. However, for hedging the USD-INR risk, corporate is restricted to the
use of forwards and USD-INR swaps.
Introduction of USD-INR options would enable Indian forex market participants manage
their exposures better by hedging the dollar-rupee risk. The advantages of currency options
in dollar rupee would be as follows:
Hedge for currency exposures to protect the downside while retaining the upside, by
laying a premium upfront. This would be a big advantage for importers, exporters (of both
goods and services) as well as businesses with exposures to international prices. Currency
options would enable Indian industry and businesses to compete letter in the international
markets by hedging currency risk.
Non-linear payoff of the product enables its use as hedge for various special cases
and possible exposures. e.g. If an Indian company is bidding for an international assignment
where the bid quote would be in dollars but the costs would be in rupees, then the company
runs a risk till the contract is awarded. Using forwards or currency swaps would create the
reverse positions if the company is not allotted the contract, but the use of an option contract
in this case would freeze the liability only to the option premium paid upfront.
The nature of the instrument again makes its use possible as a hedge against
uncertainty of the cash flows. Option structures can be used to hedge the volatility along
with the non-linear nature of payoffs.
Attract further forex investments due to the availability of another mechanism for
hedging forex risk.
4. Exotic options
These products could be introduced at the inception of the Rupee vanilla options or in
phases, depending on the speed of development of the market as well as comfort with
competencies and Risk Management Systems of market participants.
Simple structures involving vanilla European calls and puts such as range-forwards,
bull and bear spreads, strips, straps, straddles, strangles, butterflies, risk reversals, etc.
Simple exotic options such as barrier options, Asian options, Look back options and
also American options
More complex range of exotics including binary options, barrier and range digital
options, forward-start options, etc
Some of the above-mentioned products especially the structure involving simple European
calls and puts may even be introduced along with the options itself.
Currency Swap
Currency swaps involve an exchange of cash flows in two different currencies. It is generally
used to raise funds in a market where the corporate has a comparative advantage and to
achieve a portfolio in a different currency of his choice, at a cost lower than if he accessed
the market of the second currency directly.
However, since these types of swaps involve an exchange of two currencies, an exchange
rate, generally the prevailing spot rate is used to calculate the amount of cash flows, apart
from interest rates relevant to these two currencies. By its special nature, these instruments
are used for hedging risk arising out of interest rates and exchange rates.
Another spin-off of the liberalization and financial reform was the development of a
fledgling market in FC- RE swaps. A fledgling market in FC- RE swaps started with foreign
banks and some financial institutions offering these products to corporates. Initially, the
market was very small and two way quotes were quite wide, but the market started
developing as more market players as well as business houses started understanding these
products and using them to manage their exposures. Corporates started using FC- RE swaps
mainly for the following purposes:
The market witnessed expanding volumes in the initial years with volumes up to USD 800
million being experienced at the peak. Corporates were actively exploring the swap market
in its various variants (such as principal only and coupon only swaps), and using the route
not only to create but also to extinguish forex exposures. However, the regulator was
worried about the impact of these transactions on the local forex markets, since the spot and
forward markets were being used to hedge these swap transactions.
So the RBI tried to regulate the spot impact by passing the below
regulations:
The authorized dealers offering swaps to corporate should try and match demand
between the corporate
The open position on the swap book and the access to the inter bank spot market
because of swap transaction was restricted to USD 10 million
The contract if cancelled is not allowed to be rebooked or re-entered for the same
underlying.
The above regulations led to a constriction in the market because of the one-sided nature of
the market. However, with a liberalizing regime and a build-up in foreign exchange reserves,
the spot access was initially increased to USD 25 million and then to USD 50 million.
The authorized dealers were also allowed the use of currency swaps to hedge their asset-
liability portfolio. The above developments are expected to result in increased market
activity with corporate being able to use the swap route in a more flexible manner to hedge
their exposures. A necessary pre-condition to increased liquidity would be the further
development and increase in participants in the rupee swap market (linked to MIFOR)
thereby creating an efficient hedge market to hedge rupee interest rate risk.
Diagram:
These swaps involve payments attached to a floating rate index for both the currencies. In
other words, floating-against-floating cross-currency basis swaps.
Corporate who have huge rupee liabilities and want have foreign currency loans in their
books, both as a diversification as well as a cost reduction exercise could achieve their
objective by swapping their rupee loans into foreign currency loans through the dollar/rupee
swap route. However, the company is assuming currency risk in the process and unless
carefully managed, might end up increasing the cost of the loan instead of reducing it. In
India, it is more the norm for corporate to swap their foreign currency loans into rupee
liabilities rather than the other way round.
Example:
A corporate has a loan of USD 10 million outstanding with remaining maturity of 2 years,
interest on which is payable every six months linked to 6-month Libor + 150 basis points.
This dollar loan can be effectively converted into a fixed rate rupee loan through a currency
swap.
If the corporate wants to enter into a currency swap to convert his loan interest payments and
principal into INR, he can find a banker with whom he can exchange the USD interest
payments for INR interest payments and a notional amount of principal at the end of the
swap period. The banker quotes a rate of say 10.75% for a USD/INR swap. The total cost for
the corporate would now work out to 12.25%. If the spot rate on the date of transaction is
44.65, the rupee liability gets fixed at Rs. 446.50 mio. At the end of the swap, the bank
delivers USD 10 million to the corporate for an exchange of INR 446.50 mio, which is used
A Forward Rate Agreement (FRA) is an agreement between two parties that determines the
forward interest rate that will apply to an agreed notional principal (loan or deposit amount)
for a specified period. FRAs are basically OTC equivalents of exchange traded short date
interest rate futures, customized to meet specific requirements.
FRAs are used more frequently by banks, for applications such as hedging their interest rate
exposures, which arise from mismatches in their money market books. FRAs are also used
widely for speculative activities.
Characteristics of FRAs
Achieves the same purpose as a forward-to-forward agreement
An off-balance sheet product as there is no exchange of principal
No transaction costs
The BBA set up standards for FRA agreements, known as BBAFRA terms,
to provide recommended terms and conditions for FRA contracts to
provide guidance on market practice. Banks not dealing on BBA terms
FRA Terminology:
Contract Period the period from the Settlement Date to the Maturity Date.
Accrual forward: With an accrual forward, for each of the daily fixings up to expiry
that spot remains within the range, the holder gets longer 1 unit of USD/INR at the Forward
Rate. For example, for each of the daily fixings up to expiry that spot remains within the
range let us say 48.50 to 48.60, the holder accrues 1 unit at the forward rate of 48.56.
If spot never trades at or beyond the in strike before expiration, the investment plus
interest at certain rate ’r’ will be paid in rupee.
If spot trades at or beyond the in strike before expiration and closes above the exercise
price, the investor is paid the invested capital plus interest ’r’ paid in rupee.
But if spot trades at or beyond the in strike before expiration and closes below the
exercise price, the investor is paid in USD. The sum paid in USD corresponds to the amount
of invested capital plus interest of ’r’ converted at the exercise price.
1. Internal Techniques
I. Netting
II. Matching
III. Leading and Legging
IV. Price policies
V. Asset and liability management
VI. Nostro reconciliation
VII. Position sheets, overnight orders
VIII. Revaluation of exchange position
IX. Reporting of limit excesses
X. Benchmarking
I. Netting
Netting simply means offsetting exposures in one currency with exposure in the same or
anther currency, where exchange rates are expected to move in such a way
that losses on the first exposed position should be offset by gains on the secured currency
exposure which is known as bilateral netting, each pair of subsidiary nets out their own
positions with each other. The lower of each company’s purchases from of sales to its
netting partner reduces flows.
A complex form of netting, can take place when affiliates both import from and export to
companies within the same corporate group. Flows are reduced by the lower of each
company’s total purchase from / sale to affiliates.
In multilateral netting participating units must report all inter company positions at the end
of given period, and the centre then advice the units of the net amount which they are to pay
or receive at a certain date. So that, multilateral netting requires a centralized
communications system and lot of discipline on the part of participating units.
The major benefits of netting are reduced banking cost and increased control of inter-
company settlements. The reduced number and total amount of payment produces saving in
the form of lower flow and lower exchange cost.
II. Matching
Matching can be applied to both third party as well as inter-company cash flow and it be
used by the exporter / importer as well as the multinational company. It is a process
whereby a company matches its currency inflow and with it currency outflows with respect
to amount and timing. Receipt in a particular currency may then be sued to make payment in
that currency so that the need to go through the exchange is limited to the unmatched portion
of foreign currency cash flows.
1) Natural: - Natural matching is a two-way cash flow in the same foreign currency.
The problem for implementing matching concerns the timing of third party receipts and
payments. Unexpected delay can cause the mismatching of a match and may consequently
leave both receivable and payable exposed to exchange risk. Timing problem can be
overcome by the utilization of foreign currency account, which allow retiming of currency
conversion to facilitate matching.
The simply refers to the adjustment of inter company credit terms, ‘leading’ meaning a
prepayment of trade obligation and ‘legging’ a delayed payment. This is primarily an inter
company technique because in third party trade there is a clear conflict of interest between
buyer and seller. Inter company legging and leading can be used as part of either a risk
minimizing strategy or an aggressive strategy. In case, a central information and decision
point is usually required, to ensure that the timing of inter company settlement is effective
from a group point of view rather than a purely local one. It requires lot of discipline and
central decision-making. It may impact on liquidity and hence profitability of company.
To protect against the risk of Forex Company raise selling price. But with frequently
fluctuated forex price, how company can change selling price. And whether increase in
selling price will affect the market share of the company.
o Competitive situation
o Customer credibility
o Price control
o Internal delays
o Trading/financing pattern
Currency-of-invoicing
Assets and Liability Management techniques can be used to manage balance sheet, income
statement land or cash flow exposures. They can also use aggressively or defensively.
Aggressive approach will be to exposed liability, expenses, and cash outflow in weak
currency and assets, revenues and cash inflows in strong currency.
In defensive approach firm will seek to minimize foreign exchange gains and losses by
matching the currency denomination of assets/liability, revenue / expense and cash
inflow/outflow.
Since every FX deal eventually settles across Nostro account, the accounts ultimately reflect
all purchases and sales in each currency. Nostro account is our account with an overseas
correspondent bank, maintained in foreign currency.
2. To avoid confusion and errors multiple accounts with the same bank should be
avoided.
Each trader/dealer has to maintain a proper position sheet for each currency, separately,
every day. It includes following details:
o Deal number
o Time of deal
o Method
o Counter party
o Foreign currency amount
o Rate
o Value day
o Counter currency equivalent
o Net position
This sheet can be maintained when dealer are present in market. But off day exchange
market is continuously working so there is need for overnight orders it is request friendly
banks/branches overseas, in other time zones to monitor open position.
o Currency to be bought
o Currency to be sold
All limit excesses have to be reported as soon as they occur. It is an essential function of risk
management to ensure that excess are reported at once and forwarded to the appropriate
authority for approval.
IX. Benchmarking
Benchmarking refers to the setting of the terms of references and the acceptable standards.
This is particularly essential for the purpose of revaluation of currency positions, for setting
of limits a budgetary purpose. It ensures certain degree of acceptability and credibility to
profit figures, revaluation process and MIS reports.
There are methods of setting benchmark. It is essentially a function of the comfort-level
within any organization and acceptable of the source of references rates. Beyond the source,
it also sets acceptable time of references as well.
RBI reference rate, SBI rate are considered to be reference rate in India. While LIBOR rate
is considered to be best for other currency.
2. External Techniques
I. Short-term Borrowing
Debt-borrowing in the currency to which the firm is exposed or investing in interest-bearing
assets to offset a foreign currency payment – is a widely hedging tool that serves much the
same purpose as forward contracts. The cost of this money market hedge is the interest
differentials between the two countries. According to interest rate earned, the interest
So the cost of the money market hedge should be the same as the forward of future market
hedge, unless the firm has some advantage in one market or the other.
The money market hedge suits many companies because they have to borrow anyway, so it
simply is a matter of denominating the company’s debt in the currency to which it is
exposed. That is logical.
But if a money hedge is to done for its own sake, the firm ends up borrowing from one bank
and lending to another, thus losing on the spread. This is costly, so the forward hedge would
probably be more advantageous except where the firm had to borrow for ongoing purpose
anyway.
II. Discounting
Discounting can be sued to cover only export receivables. It cannot be used to cover foreign
currency payables or to hedge a translation exposure. Where an exporter receivable is to be
settled by bill of exchange the export can discount the bill any there by receive payment
before the receivable settlement date. The bill may be discounted it either with a foreign
bank in the customer’s country, in which case the foreign currency proceeds can be
repatriated immediately, at the currency spot rate of at exporter’s country bank.
III. Factoring
Factoring can only be used as a means of covering export receivables. When the export
receivable is to be settled on open account, rather than by bill of exchange, the receivables
can be assigned as collateral for selected bank financing under most circumstances such
service will give protection against rate changes, through during unsettled periods in the
foreign exchange markets appropriate variations may be made in the factoring agreement.
Devising of a plan/ strategy and execution thereof are matters of expertise in market
reading and dealing and are usually the more enchanting part of Risk Management or
Trading.
It is rare that adequate attention is paid to the need for defining proper ‘Objectives’
for the risk management exercise. Even if the objectives have been properly defined, they
are often forgotten in the heat of market activity. This leads to failure or underperformance
in the big picture. I have already tried to illustrate this through an example in the context of
Corporate FX Risk Management.
In India since last 25 to 30 years the exporter has a tendency to not to do anything because
after 1972 the India rupee has depreciated against most traded foreign currency like US $
and GB £. The exporters are doing business in a traditional way. Now the time has changed
the dollar is depreciating and Indian rupee is appreciating. So the exporters should change
their psychology and use the tools and techniques available to protect against Forex risk.
The tools and techniques available are easy and understandable. While some external
techniques require information but in this 21st century information is available easily at
competitive cost. There are many companies like Kshitij consultancy, which have nation
wide presence in case of informative and reporting system. There is less worry to importers
and foreign currency borrowers on account of rupee appreciating scenario but if they have a
tendency of covering every thing then it should be changed to a leave open strategy.
There has also been undue inclination towards using general risk management tools such as
Forward rate agreement (FRAs) thereby neglecting the use of other important and
sophisticated tools such as Option contract on Forex. There is lack of expertise in
participants (Importers and Exporters) of Forex market which make them rely heavily on the
advice provided to them by their Forex brokers or agents rather then relying on their own
knowledge and expertise.
The major factors influencing the choice of participants (Importers and Exporters) while
deciding amongst Derivative products for risk management are as follows:
• Weaknesses
NEL will be competing with established players like Arvind Mills Ltd., Ashima Ltd
and Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing Company Ltd.
Overseas market is highly competitive.
The success & viability of current projects depend to a good extent upon the interest
subsidy of 5% available from Textile Upgradation Fund Scheme of Govt. of India and duty
draw back on account export sales.
Fashion trend in overseas market changes very fast.
• Opportunities
With closure of many production centers in Europe and USA on account of stringent
pollution control norm, high cost labor and raw material, this opens up tremendous
opportunity for Indian manufacturers for supplying denim and Bottom weight clothes and
processed fabrics to those countries.
As quota system has been removed, Global sourcing has been easier. Many foreign
customers can take a re-look at their supply chain to get quality products from India. There is
an enormous opportunity for textile exports from India.
Increased competition in domestic market (and also global market) owing to sizable
additional capacities, which are being set up by existing/new players in India.
Post imposition of ‘safeguard measures’ against China by US and EU, the threat of
Chinese dumping looms large over the Asian markets; this could cause market disruption
and hurt the competitiveness of domestic players, on account of possible dumping in the
Indian market.
Continuous rupee appreciation could negatively impact the competitiveness of
exports.
NANDAN EXIM LTD. can get the benefits of its lower fixed cost & operating cost
in comparison of other competitor companies in the textile industry.
The interest subsidy of 5% is available from Textile Upgradation Fund Scheme of
Govt. Of India to NEL, this has given export benefit up to 5.6%. The company should
achieve the maximum benefits of it for ongoing projects, before the scheme is withdrawn.
The co. should continue to acquire latest plant and machinery, so that they provide
flexibility to manufacture fabric of varying weights (up to 14.5) ounces.
The company can use its quality as a weapon against its competitors & continue to
improve quality.
The company can apply different strategies in different countries as per domestic
demand & supply, like-China is more present in lower and cheaper variety of Denim fabrics
1.Books
2.News Papers
3.Websites
www.fxstreet.com/charts.htm
www.rbi.gov.in/database.htm
www.wto.org/archive.htm
www.indiainfoline.com
www.en.wikipedia.org