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Otto Latsis
rural districts, but will have almost no influence in the major towns,
or in the countryside either. A party, moreover, which still has no slogans or strategies to attract the republics Russian-speaking citizens,
who make up 48 per cent of the population. In short, as a result of the
split, Latvias Communists, who have ruled the republic for half a century, have now become the political opposition.
The majority in the Latvian Supreme Soviet consists of a collection of
movements and parties which are all now demanding independence
from the USSR. The minority Independent Communist Party of Latvia
joined this alliance, but not as its leading force. The ICPLs presence
there is subordinated to the far more powerful Latvian Popular Front,
which although not formally a party, is increasingly seen as such.
Various well-known figures in the republic who set up the Front have
one by one left the leadership to behold their creation with amazement. When the Front was formed in 1988, most of its members categorically, and I am sure sincerely, rejected the notion of independence
from the USSR. Independence suddenly began to be widely discussed
in the spring of 1989, and the idea is by now already widely accepted,
with only tactical questions remaining to be debated.
If it is genuinely better for the people of Latvia to turn their backs on
two centuries in Russia and half a century in the Soviet Union, then so
be it. Imperialist greed is an unreliable and impractical basis for politics in our century. But I am convinced that the Latvians have not yet
had the chance calmly to consider their own best interests or the kind
of future they want. It is as though people are in a trance. All the arguments I have heard for leaving the Soviet Union are based on the
events of the past. We cannot change the past, only the future. Yet the
factors which will define this future are never discussed.
Latvian people are deeply shocked by the recently emerging facts of
their own history. They have been swindled, they are far worse off
than the small independent countries bordering on the USSR. Fifty
years ago, unenthusiastic but unresisting, they became part of the
USSR as their best defence against the Hitlerite dictatorshipa very
real danger, which had by then engulfed almost the whole of Europe
excluding Great Britain and the USSR. But it did not defend them,
and Latvia had to endure all the horrors of Nazi occupation. It then
endured the horrors of the Stalinist dictatorship, followed by a decade
of stagnation, which, according to a number of objective indicators,
reduced a country that had formerly held its own with the economically developed countries of Europe to the ranks of the most backward
of them.
History has now presented the Latvians with yet another paradox:
many of those who cursed Stalins Soviet Union now want to break
loose from the Soviet Union of Gorbachev too. Yet if this is the same
empire, the same regime of occupation (how easily these phrases
spring to peoples lips nowadays!), how is it that we can freely discuss
secession, prepare for secession, and elect to the Latvian Supreme
Soviet a majority in favour of secession? And if things have changed,
why is it necessary to be in such a rush, rather than to discuss
everything rationally?
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dismissed from their posts. Some were found guilty of raising the
same painful problem of Latvias economy and culture which we are
now trying belatedly, and in much worse conditions, to solve. Others
were charged with even worse crimes. Communists, partisans, former
underground members and war veterans, Latvians, Russians and
Byelorussians were all branded as Latvian bourgeois nationalists
(generally understood to be a synonym for Latvian fascism).
All this happened at the July plenary of the Latvian Communist Party
Central Committee in 1959. In his final word to the plenary, the then
first secretary of the Central Committee, Jan Kalnberzin, paid fulsome
tribute to the courage of the genuine internationalists, the Latvian
Guards Division who had defended Moscow. This was quite appropriate. Amongst those attending the plenary were six veterans of the
battle for Moscow. All six of them had been slandered as nationalists. Who was judging whom? Many non-Latvians will be familiar
with at least one of the names of the accused: that of Alexander
Alexandrovich Nikonov, former secretary of the Latvian Communist
Party Central Committee, now president of the All-Union Academy of
Agricultural Sciences and a prominent figure in the perestroika of
agriculture.
Let us not exaggerate: most people in Latvia were not unduly bothered
then by the replacement of a few dozen Party officials. It was the
policies themselves that produced a lingering sickness in the popular
consciousness, policies which have shown an increasingly crude
disregard for the local peoples interests. The most savage expression
of this was the senseless banning of the feast of St Ivan, known in
Latvia as Ligo. This popular national holiday had been observed for
hundreds of years under numerous different governments. The only
previous attempt to ban it was by German bishops and barons in the
twelfth century, but they had rapidly reversed their decision, realizing
it would be both pointless and dangerous. This shameful deed was
repeated in the 1960s, and dealt perhaps the greatest blow of all to
Communism in Latvia.
Occupation: Reality or Rhetoric?
Yet, despite the importance of the past, people have an even greater
need to understand the future. Most of the discussions I have heard
about Latvias future in the event of secession from the USSR have
been sheer speculation. The supporters of Soviet unity (that is, the
PCL) frighten their opponents by producing bills for Soviet factories
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and property that Latvia will have to pay if it secedes, and the supporters of independence respond by producing their own bills. It
seems to me that serious negotiations between the two sides would
show that most of these claims would cancel each other outsome
small reparations might be required, but it is not yet clear from which
side. At any rate, there is no point in threatening people in this way:
it just wont work.
The advocates of Soviet unity warn that the USSR will retaliate by
severing economic links. The advocates of Latvian independence
reply that if secession is legally formulated, the USSR will do no such
thing, since it has a direct interest in Latvian manufactured goods.
This is quite reasonable, of course; the first scenario is not. What
neither side will tell people, however, is that in the event of secession
many economic links will indeed be severed, and many Latvian enterprises closed, not as a matter of deliberate policy by either side but
due to inevitable real pressures. The commercial relationship between
Latvia and the RSFSR and the other republics is such that for both
sides to convert from Soviet wholesale prices to world prices, and
from the dollar to the rouble, huge long-term losses will be imposed
on the Baltic states, which at present import raw materials from the
East, and export manufactured goods there. There is an enormous
difference between paying thirty roubles and ninety dollars for a ton
of oil.
Of course the Baltic republics will also demand to be paid world
prices, in dollars, for their goods. But there is a hitch. The quality of
oil does not depend on the labours of those who drill it: it is created by
nature. And the quality of Soviet (and Baltic) machinery and equipment falls far short of the requirements of the world market. Siberias
oil could easily fetch the higher, world-market prices of the oil drilled
at more central, recently discovered fields. If Latvia demands payment
in dollars and at world prices for its electronics, Russian factories will
say: I can buy Japanese goods for that price; if you dont let us have it
cheaper, we wont take it.
People in Latvia know how to work, and if it is decided to leave the
they will of course eventually rebuild their economy. But at what
cost? And will things really be better outside the Soviet Union than
within it? I have not so far heard any convincing reply to this question. People refer to the transition taking two, five or even ten years.
But what if it takes twenty? How many thousand people will lose their
jobs in these years? And what will this unemployed generations
verdict be on their present leaders? None of these issues has been
properly explored.
USSR
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