FMA (February-March-April) Seasonal outlook for Sri Lanka

This forecast was prepared using

(a) The prevailing global climate conditions.
(b) Forecasts from different climate models from around the world.
(c) Statistical downscaling of GCM output using CPT.
(a) Prevailing global climate conditions
A strong El Nio continued from till end of January as indicated by well above-average
sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean
(Fig. 1). Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies
continued over the western to east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and
equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values remained negative. Collectively,
these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong and mature El Nio episode.

Fig 1 Observed Average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (C) from 27th
December 2015 to 23rd January 2016

Most models indicate that a strong El Nio will continue through the Northern
Hemisphere winter 2015-16, followed by weakening and a transition to ENSO-neutral
during the late spring or early summer (Fig. 2). This El Nio could rank among the top
three strongest episodes as measured by the 3-month SST departures in the Nio 3.4
region going back to 1950. El Nio will likely peak during the Northern Hemisphere
winter 2015-16, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during the early summer
2016 (Figs 2 and 3).

Fig 2 : SST anomaly forecast for FMA (upper), MJJ (Middle) and ASO (lower) by
WMO .

Fig 3 : ENSO forecast from Climate Prediction Center (CPC)/ IRI .

(a.1) Impact of El Nino on monthly rainfall over Sri Lanka

El Nio has already produced significant global impacts. El Nio is expected to affect
rainfall patterns in Sri Lanka during the upcoming months. Considering the El Nino impact on
probability of receiving above median rainfall, it is evident that deficit rainfall over most parts of
Sri Lanka in February (Fig 4 (left)) and deficit rainfall over western and eastern parts in MarchApril (Fig 4 (right)).

Fig : 4 Composites of rainfall probabilities (shading) for February (left), and March - April
(right) during El Nino using monthly rainfall data from 90 station (1951-2010). Rainfall
probabilities refer to the chance of monthly rainfall exceeding the median, expressed as a
percentage with the mean probability (nominally 100%). (Source : Hapuarachchi, 2015
Unpublished).

(b) Forecasts from different climate models from around the world.
(b.1) For FMA season
Figure 5 shows the probabilistic multi model ensemble forecast using dynamical models
from 12 global producing centers (GPC) for FMA season. There is a higher probability
of receiving below normal rainfall for FMA season (Fig. 5). Out of 12 GPC forecasts 6
and 2 GCP forecasts give below normal and above rainfall, for FMA season respectively
(Fig 6). There is no signal for FMA season over Sri Lanka from 4 GPS forecast
outputs. Accordingly there is possibility of receiving below normal rainfall for FMA
season 2016.

Fig 5 : Probabilistic multi model ensemble forecast for FMA using dynamical models from 12
WMO global producing centers (GPC).

Fig 6 : Individual forecast for FMA season by dynamical models from 12 WMO global
producing centers (GPC).
(a.2) Forecast For February, March, and April 2016
Figure 7 shows the probabilistic multi model ensemble forecast using dynamical models from 12
global producing centers (GPC) for February, March, and April 2016. Near normal conditions can
be expected for month of February and March 2016 for Sri Lanka (Fig 7(left and middle)). There
is a higher chance of receiving below normal rainfall for April 2016 (Fig 7 (right)).

Fig 7 : Probabilistic multi model ensemble forecast for January 2016 (left), February 2016
(middle) and March 2016 (right) using dynamical models from 9 WMO global producing centers
(GPC).

Fig 8 : Individual forecast for February 2016 by dynamical models from 12 WMO global
producing centers (GPC).
Figures 8, 9 and 10 show the probabilistic forecast from individual global producing centers
(GPC) centers for February, March, and April 2016 respectively. Out of 12 GPC forecasts 7 GCP
forecasts give below normal rainfall and 3 GCP forecasts give below normal rainfall for February
2016 (Fig 8). There is no signal for February 2016 over Sri Lanka from 2 GPS forecast outputs.
Accordingly below normal rainfall can be expected for February 2016.

Out of 12 GPC forecasts 7 GCP forecasts give below normal rainfall for March 2016 (Fig 09).
Only three GCP forecast provides above rainfall for March 2016. There is no signal for March
2016 over Sri Lanka from 2 GPS forecast outputs. Accordingly Below normal rainfall can be
expected for March 2016.

Fig 09 : Individual forecast for March 2016 by dynamical models from 12 WMO global
producing centers (GPC).

Fig 10 : Individual forecast for April 2016 by dynamical models from 12 WMO global producing
centers (GPC).
Out of 12 GPC forecasts 6 GCP forecasts give below normal rainfall for April 2016 (Fig 10).
Only one GCP forecast (GCP Moscow) provides above rainfall for April 2016. There is no signal
for April 2016 over Sri Lanka from 5 GPS forecast outputs. Accordingly Below normal rainfall
can be expected for April 2016.

(c) Statistical downscaling of CFSv2 global forecast output

(c.1) Probabilistic Forecast for FMA season 2016 using Climate Predictability tool (CPT)
The probabilistic rainfall forecast for FMA 2016 for Sri Lanka by downscaling CFSv2 SST using
CPT is given below.
The district wise average rainfall is given in the column 2 of the table 1. Chance (probability) of
receiving below/about/above average is given in the columns 3, 4, and 5 respectively in the table
1. All the districts have more chance (higher probability) of receiving below average rainfall
during the FMA season 2016 (Table 1 and Fig 12).
Table 1

District
Colombo
Kalutara
Galle
Matara
Hambantota
Ampara
Batticaloa
Trincomalee
Mullaithivu
Jaffna
Killinochchi
Mannar
Puttalam
Gampaha
Kegalle
Ratnapura
Monaragala
Badulla
Pollonnaruwa
Vavuniya
Anuradapura
Kurunegala
Matale
Kandy
Nuwaraeliya

Average rainfall
(mm) (FMA)
540.8
695.1
633.9
494.4
255.3
330.5
266.1
199.2
178.9
93.1
141.8
195.3
264.2
474.4
647.2
644.0
389.5
509.8
300.5
212.8
244.9
362.1
394.6
448.9
475.7

Probability %
Below
75
75
75
70
65
75
75
70
70
60
65
65
65
75
75
65
70
75
75
70
65
70
65
75
75

Normal
15
15
15
20
20
15
15
20
20
25
20
20
20
15
15
20
20
15
15
20
20
20
25
15
15

Above
10
10
10
10
15
10
10
10
10
15
15
15
15
10
10
15
10
10
10
10
15
10
10
10
10

Fig 11. Probabilistic rainfall forecast for January-March 2016 using CPT
Summary
Table 2 : Summary of Model forecasts for Sri Lanka
SUMMARY of MODEL FORECAST for FMA season for SRI LANKA
Season
WMO LC WMO GPC
Prevailing global
CPT
MME
climate conditions
For FMA
BN
BN (6-BN, 2 AN, 4 BN
BN
season
No signal)
For February N
BN (7-BN, 3 AN, 2 BN
BN
2016
No signal)
For March
N
BN (7-BN, 3 AN, 2 BN in western
2016
No signal)
and South eastern
parts
For April
BN
BN (6-BN, 2 AN, 4 BN in western
2016
No signal)
and South eastern
parts

Final
BN
BN
BN
BN

BN: Below Normal N: Normal AN: Above Normal CP: Climatological Probability
There is a higher probability of receiving Below normal rainfall for FMA season with below
normal rainfall in February, March and April 2016.
The FMA seasonal rainfall 2016 is likely to be below normal with 20%, 30 % and 50%
probability of receiving above normal, near normal and below normal seasonal rainfall
respectively.