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Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
05 April 2016
BRS Research
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
7,058
7,793
8,547
9,948
11,137
12,692
Trading Snapshot
Market cap (LKR mn)
27,073
187
1,137.53
20.26%
52 week High/Low
25.10/19.40
-11.83%
-0.83%
Beta
0.64
Valuation Summary
15.2%
10.4%
9.7%
16.4%
12.0%
14.0%
EBIT recurring
1,863
1,966
2,295
2,772
3,203
3,600
CMP (LKR)
23.80
26.4%
25.2%
26.8%
27.9%
28.8%
28.4%
27.33
756
1,055
917
1,869
1,948
2,227
DPS (LKR)
0.75
0.96
0.83
1.64
1.71
1.96
68.1%
28.5%
-13.1%
96.9%
4.2%
14.3%
6.36
4.23
5.48
5.98
7.19
8.65
P/E (x)
15.3
23.1
24.2
14.5
13.9
12.2
P/BV (x)
1.8
5.2
3.7
4.0
3.3
2.8
ROE %
15.8%
19.0%
17.2%
29.2%
26.0%
24.7%
27.83
Valuation method
DCF method
Total Return %
16.94%
Rating
BUY
ASPI
8,000
LKR
ASIR
26
7,500
24
7,000
22
6,500
20
6,000
18
5,500
5,000
Jan-15
0.50
16
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
EPS
LKR
2.10
1.85
1.60
1.35
1.10
0.85
0.60
0.35
0.10
2013
2014
2015
2016E
Page 1
2017E
2018E
05 April 2016
12,692
2018E
2018E
12%
3,600
2018E
2018E
11%
4,306
2018E
2018E
12%
16%
10%
10%
7,058
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
6%
2013
2014
17%
2015
2016E
2017E
17%
2,497
2013
13%
5%
2014
12%
2015
ROCE
2016E
ROCE %
2017E
ROE
ROE %
29%
19%
24%
17%
15%
19%
13%
14%
11%
9%
9%
4%
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
Page 2
Source: ASIR Annual Reports and BRS Equity Research
Q3 FY 16 Performance
Q3 FY 16
Q3 FY 15
Q2 FY 16
2,598
2,189
2,396
18.7%
8.3%
13.6%
8.4%
3.8%
3.5%
659
321
302
All figures in mn
Revenue
0.56
0.25
0.24
123.1%
3.9%
13.1%
137.0%
20.1%
-11.7%
5.07
5.16
5.94
ROCE %
16.9%
13.6%
14.7%
ROE %
23.5%
18.5%
16.4%
101.9%
113.9%
106.4%
50.5%
53.3%
51.6%
3.5
3.9
3.8
10.2
7.1
11.7
Valuation estimates
Based on a free cash flow valuation we have arrived at a target price of LKR 27.33. Our
valuations are based on the following estimates.
WACC 12.8%
Terminal Growth rate 3%
Risk-free rate 12.56% (Five year bond rate)
Beta 0.64 (Based on ASIR vs. ASPI movement)
Equity risk premium 5%
Terminal growth
www.bartleetreligare.com
27.33
10.06%
10.56%
11.06%
12.56%
13.06%
13.56%
14.06%
2%
29.78
28.84
27.94
25.52
24.78
24.08
23.41
3%
32.30
31.19
30.14
27.33
26.49
25.69
24.92
4%
35.48
34.14
32.89
29.56
28.57
27.63
26.75
Page 3
Financial Analysis
Income Statement - Asiri Hospital Holdings PLC
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
Total Revenue
7,058
7,793
8,547
9,948
11,137
12,692
YoY growth %
15.2%
10.4%
9.7%
16.4%
12.0%
14.0%
3,060
ASIR
2,121
2,329
2,441
2,684
2,816
YoY growth %
12.2%
9.8%
4.8%
10.0%
4.9%
8.7%
AMSL
2,244
2,395
2,654
2,960
3,255
3,551
YoY growth %
Other - The Central+Matara Medi House+Asiri
Matara+Diagnostic Services
13.7%
6.7%
10.8%
11.6%
10.0%
9.1%
2,693
3,069
3,452
4,303
5,066
6,081
YoY growth %
19.1%
14.0%
12.5%
24.6%
17.7%
20.0%
(635)
(661)
(668)
(692)
(691)
(707)
Total depreciation
EBIT including non-recurring items
1,862
1,963
2,290
2,771
3,203
3,600
EBIT margin %
26.4%
25.2%
26.8%
27.9%
28.8%
28.4%
YoY growth %
11.8%
5.4%
16.6%
21.0%
15.6%
12.4%
ASIR
1,143
1,442
1,099
1,525
1,689
1,839
EBIT margin %
53.9%
61.9%
45.0%
56.8%
60.0%
60.1%
YoY growth %
59.1%
26.2%
-23.8%
38.7%
10.7%
8.9%
AMSL
1,797
433
401
501
558
606
EBIT margin %
80.1%
18.1%
15.1%
16.9%
17.1%
17.1%
215.6%
-75.9%
-7.3%
24.8%
11.4%
8.6%
(1,078)
88
790
745
956
1,154
YoY growth %
Other - The Central+Matara Medi House+Asiri
Matara+Diagnostic Services
Non-recurring items
(0.53)
(2.35)
(4.53)
(1.52)
1,863
1,966
2,295
2,772
3,203
3,600
YoY growth %
11.8%
5.5%
16.7%
20.8%
15.5%
12.4%
EBIT margin %
26.4%
25.2%
26.8%
27.9%
28.8%
28.4%
2,497
2,626
2,962
3,464
3,895
4,306
9.7%
5.2%
12.8%
16.9%
12.4%
10.6%
35.4%
33.7%
34.7%
34.8%
35.0%
33.9%
28
42
195
160
160
(606)
(564)
(581)
(477)
(441)
YoY growth %
EBITDA margin %
Finance Income
Finance Cost
(734)
Exchange loss
(59)
(48)
(75)
513
1,106
1,388
1,260
2,386
2,887
3,319
YoY growth %
50.3%
25.4%
-9.2%
89.4%
21.0%
15.0%
(139)
(162)
(187)
(283)
(389)
(429)
967
1,225
1,072
2,103
2,498
2,890
YoY growth %
51.9%
26.7%
-12.5%
96.1%
18.8%
15.7%
NP Margin
13.7%
15.7%
12.5%
21.1%
22.4%
22.8%
756
1,055
917
1,869
1,948
2,227
Minority Interest
211
170
155
234
549
663
0.75
0.96
0.83
1.64
1.71
1.96
0.75
0.96
1.30
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Page 4
Financial Analysis
Statement of Financial Position - Asiri Hospital Holdings PLC
Year Ending 31st March (LKR mn)
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
10,313
10,090
10,839
11,138
11,351
11,629
Leasehold properties
184
272
1,018
1,007
1,002
997
Intangible Assets
565
549
549
549
549
549
102
213
228
228
228
Investment Property
2,040
2,185
2,698
432
598
13,203
13,740
15,701
12,928
13,137
13,410
Inventories
315
341
381
264
475
677
509
689
374
475
534
813
429
138
138
138
17
161
189
1,247
4,712
5,203
6,307
Current Assets
1,802
1,500
2,513
6,268
7,055
8,673
15,005
15,240
18,215
19,196
20,192
22,083
Share Capital
3,902
3,902
3,902
4,748
4,748
4,748
Capital Reserves
1,620
(74)
(753)
(1,225)
(1,225)
(1,225)
130
296
296
296
296
Retained earnings
907
696
2,575
2,980
4,360
6,018
9,837
Total assets
Equity and liabilities
6,430
4,654
6,021
6,800
8,179
Minority Interest
1,148
997
1,183
2,264
2,814
3,477
Total Equity
7,578
5,651
7,204
9,064
10,993
13,314
5,018
Non-Current Liabilities
Interest bearing borrowings
4,321
6,077
7,033
5,918
5,468
42
38
34
34
34
34
93
380
224
475
475
475
223
247
345
381
409
435
Other Payables
4,680
6,743
7,636
6,809
6,386
5,962
1,084
Current Liabilities
Trade and other payables
585
552
373
1,268
950
78
23
54
261
218
228
Dividend payable
28
34
43
(182)
(182)
(182)
Total liabilities
Total equity and liabilities
1,553
2,053
2,233
1,347
1,973
1,823
1,673
2,748
2,846
3,375
3,324
2,813
2,806
7,428
9,589
11,011
10,132
9,199
8,769
15,005
15,240
18,215
19,196
20,192
22,083
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Page 5
Financial Analysis
Cashflow Statement - Asiri Hospital Holdings PLC
Year Ending 31st March (LKR mn)
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
1,862
1,963
2,290
2,771
3,203
3,600
629
657
664
688
687
702
(1)
(2)
(5)
(0.2)
14
Gratuity
Impairement loss
Investment income
Other
Operating Profit/(loss) before Working Capital Changes
Changes in working capital
Cash generated from operations
Finance cost paid
2
-
44
-
13
-
52
3
-
68
5
-
63
-
5
-
52
-
52
-
(53)
(74)
(33)
(107)
(195)
(84)
19
20
2,206
2,518
2,507
3,215
3,947
4,358
(234)
(184)
1,511
(347)
(614)
(380)
1,972
2,334
4,018
2,868
3,333
3,978
(734)
(606)
564
(581)
(477)
(441)
Gratuity paid
(12)
(27)
(16)
(26)
(24)
(26)
(75)
(156)
(103)
(284)
(432)
(419)
(18)
(18)
1,133
1,527
4,462
1,978
2,400
3,093
(489)
(317)
(874)
(1,021)
(900)
(980)
907
38
10
2,700
(1,866)
(2,453)
(23)
(846)
31
(735)
1,045
Investment in subsidiaries
Investment in quoted securities
53
64
33
110
160
160
(2,301)
(2,673)
(1,590)
3,779
(740)
(820)
(569)
(569)
(548)
(601)
(541)
(225)
(143)
(221)
(93)
(14)
(4)
(4)
(641)
2,085
Lease repayments
Proceeds from Issue of shares to minority/Rights issue/Private placement
(4)
878
-
(4)
2,209
74
869
1,329
(300)
182
(985)
-
(4)
(4)
(600)
-
241
(1,228)
(1,169)
(1,169)
3,114
4,529
491
1,104
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(600)
Page 6
No.of Shares
% holding
418,007,865
36.75
Merrill Lynch Pierce Fenner & Smith-TPG Growth III SF Pte Ltd
328,258,325
28.86
47,033,338
4.13
36,148,930
3.18
35,536,611
3.12
26,184,018
2.30
26,184,018
2.30
23,689,854
2.08
23,151,323
2.04
10
9,375,000
0.82
11
Mr. P P Subasinghe
8,109,090
0.71
12
5,500,000
0.48
13
5,379,574
0.47
14
4,905,390
0.43
15
3,523,601
0.31
16
3,441,720
0.30
17
Dr. W.M.S.Welagedara
3,375,000
0.30
18
3,036,050
0.27
19
3,000,000
0.26
20
3,000,000
0.26
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Page 7
DISCLAIMER
Important Disclosures
This report was prepared by Strategic Research Limited for clients of Bartleet Religare Securities.
Special Disclosures
Special Disclosures for certain additional disclosure statements (if applicable).
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Analyst Certification
Each of the analysts identified in this report certifies, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyses, that the views expressed in this report
reflect his or her personal views about all of the subject companies and all of the securities and No part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or
indirectly dependent on the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. If the lead analyst holds shares of the coverage; that will be listed here.
Stock Ratings
Recommendation
Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months
Buy
More than 10%
Hold
Between 10% and 0
Sell
Less than 0%
Expected absolute returns are based on the share price at market close unless otherwise stated. Stock recommendations are based on absolute upside (downside)
and have a 12-month horizon. Our target price represents the fair value of the stock based upon the analysts discretion. We note that future price fluctuations
could lead to a temporary mismatch between upside/downside for a stock and our recommendation.
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Information, opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgment of its original date of publication by SRL and are subject to change
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