Regional outlook

In Europe, low farmgate prices will mean production growth will slow as farmers
focus more on cost-saving than expansion. However, while European production gro
wth will moderate, production levels will not fall, requiring the world market t
o find a new pricing balance.
The 2015/16 season production in NZ will be higher than expected due to increase
d summer rainfall.
US farmgate prices are likely to move down in response to weakening trade balanc
e and growth in inventories.
Worse-than-expected production in 2H 2015 has led us to cut our China production
forecast for 2016.
Production continues to contract in Argentina and Brazil, as very high feed cost
s keep farmers' margins under intense pressure.
The current season will be mostly break-even for Australian producers, while mar
gins will also be tight.
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Regional outlook
In Europe, low farmgate prices will mean production growth will slow as farmers
focus more on cost-saving than expansion. However, while European production gro
wth will moderate, production levels will not fall, requiring the world market t
o find a new pricing balance.
The 2015/16 season production in NZ will be higher than expected due to increase
d summer rainfall.
US farmgate prices are likely to move down in response to weakening trade balanc
e and growth in inventories.
Worse-than-expected production in 2H 2015 has led us to cut our China production
forecast for 2016.
Production continues to contract in Argentina and Brazil, as very high feed cost
s keep farmers' margins under intense pressure.
The current season will be mostly break-even for Australian producers, while mar
gins will also be tight.
In Europe, low farmgate prices will mean production growth will slow as farmers
focus more on cost-saving than expansion. However, while European production gro
wth will moderate, production levels will not fall, requiring the world market t
o find a new pricing balance.
The 2015/16 season production in NZ will be higher than expected due to increase
d summer rainfall.
US farmgate prices are likely to move down in response to weakening trade balanc
e and growth in inventories.
Worse-than-expected production in 2H 2015 has led us to cut our China production
forecast for 2016.
Production continues to contract in Argentina and Brazil, as very high feed cost
s keep farmers' margins under intense pressure.

The current season will be mostly break-even for Australian producers, while mar
gins will also be tight.