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PRCTICA N 4
VAR, MODELOS DE ECUACIONES SIMULTNEAS,
TEST DE CAUSALIDAD DE GRANGER
Enunciado: Se tienen las siguientes series de tiempo a analizar de Estados Unidos: Consumo
(CS), Ingreso (INC), e Inversin (INV), para el perodo: 1960 1983 (trimestral).
1. Determine el orden de un modelo VAR par las variables antes descritas, por los criterios
de Akaike y Schwarz.
Paso 1. Determinar el orden de Integracin de cada una de las variables a travs de la prueba
de estacionariedad.
Se realiza la Prueba Dickey Fuller, as como sus pruebas informales previamente: grfico de
tendencia y correlograma. Una vez realizada estas pruebas, procedemos a determinar el orden
de integracin (Ver detalles de este test en la Prctica N 3)
Contraste de Hiptesis
Nivel de
Significancia
Ho:
1,
0
Hay Raz Unitaria.
Serie No Estacionaria
5% (0,05)
H1:
1,
0
No Hay Raz Unitaria. Serie
Estacionaria
VARIABLE
Consumo (CS)
Ingreso (INC)
Inversin (INV)
INTEGRACIN
Regla de Decisin
|Tau| < |Valor Crtico|
Acepto Ho
Serie No Estacionaria
|Tau| > |Valor Crtico|
Rechazo Ho
Serie Estacionaria
DECISIN
Nivel
Primera
Diferencia
Nivel
Primera
Diferencia
Nivel
Primera
Diferencia
Acepto Ho
Serie No Estacionaria
Rechazo Ho
Serie Estacionaria
Acepto Ho
Serie No Estacionaria
Rechazo Ho
Serie Estacionaria
Acepto Ho
Serie No Estacionaria
Rechazo Ho
Serie Estacionaria
Las variables CS, INC, y INV son estacionarias en primera diferencia, por lo que son integradas
de orden 1 ~ I(1)
Paso 2. Seleccionar el orden del VAR entre 4 posibles modelos VAR 1,1; VAR 1,2; VAR 1,3;
VAR 1,4
VAR 1,1
Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 04/05/16 Time: 20:38
Sample(adjusted): 1960:3 1982:4
Included observations: 90 after adjusting endpoints
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
DLCS
DLINV
DLINC
DLCS(-1)
-0.196209
(0.14151)
[-1.38654]
-0.102225
(0.18630)
[-0.54870]
0.131391
(0.16002)
[ 0.82111]
DLINV(-1)
0.029678
(0.08780)
[ 0.33802]
-0.013797
(0.11559)
[-0.11936]
0.139917
(0.09928)
[ 1.40929]
DLINC(-1)
0.432981
(0.11858)
[ 3.65137]
0.301601
(0.15612)
[ 1.93190]
0.249488
(0.13409)
[ 1.86061]
13.86803
(2.72376)
[ 5.09150]
2.122001
(3.58595)
[ 0.59175]
14.56307
(3.08000)
[ 4.72827]
0.152484
0.122920
16603.02
13.89455
5.157677
-362.4933
8.144296
8.255399
20.55556
14.83627
0.053799
0.020792
28777.86
18.29279
1.629913
-387.2443
8.694318
8.805421
7.233333
18.48598
0.150476
0.120842
21230.01
15.71180
5.077730
-373.5557
8.390127
8.501230
24.28889
16.75685
R-squared
Adj. R-squared
Sum sq. resids
S.E. equation
F-statistic
Log likelihood
Akaike AIC
Schwarz SC
Mean dependent
S.D. dependent
8145843.
-1099.199
24.69332
25.02662
VAR1,2
Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 04/05/16 Time: 21:04
Sample(adjusted): 1960:4 1982:4
Included observations: 89 after adjusting endpoints
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
DLCS
DLINV
DLINC
DLCS(-1)
-0.217402
(0.14571)
[-1.49197]
-0.147180
(0.20244)
[-0.72705]
0.239483
(0.16324)
[ 1.46708]
DLCS(-2)
-0.131800
(0.14212)
[-0.92741]
-0.036070
(0.19743)
[-0.18269]
0.173779
(0.15921)
[ 1.09154]
DLINV(-1)
-0.003812
(0.08606)
[-0.04430]
-0.011013
(0.11956)
[-0.09211]
0.101068
(0.09641)
[ 1.04832]
DLINV(-2)
0.200265
(0.08607)
[ 2.32684]
-0.084665
(0.11957)
[-0.70808]
0.229678
(0.09642)
[ 2.38212]
DLINC(-1)
0.346807
(0.12424)
[ 2.79152]
0.342536
(0.17260)
[ 1.98462]
0.074120
(0.13918)
[ 0.53256]
DLINC(-2)
0.278830
(0.12415)
[ 2.24598]
0.040994
(0.17247)
[ 0.23769]
0.045419
(0.13908)
[ 0.32658]
11.16757
(3.06564)
[ 3.64282]
2.380650
(4.25895)
[ 0.55898]
10.54839
(3.43430)
[ 3.07149]
0.243601
0.188255
14774.36
13.42293
4.401399
-353.7701
8.107192
8.302928
20.64045
14.89833
0.062393
-0.006212
28515.02
18.64790
0.909455
-383.0305
8.764730
8.960466
7.247191
18.59025
0.257507
0.203179
18541.44
15.03712
4.739804
-363.8767
8.334308
8.530043
24.33708
16.84552
R-squared
Adj. R-squared
Sum sq. resids
S.E. equation
F-statistic
Log likelihood
Akaike AIC
Schwarz SC
Mean dependent
S.D. dependent
7379496.
-1082.589
24.79976
25.38696
VAR 1,3
Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 04/05/16 Time: 21:07
Sample(adjusted): 1961:1 1982:4
Included observations: 88 after adjusting endpoints
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
DLCS
DLINV
DLINC
DLCS(-1)
-0.310760
(0.13618)
[-2.28204]
-0.171292
(0.21647)
[-0.79131]
0.115922
(0.16770)
[ 0.69126]
DLCS(-2)
-0.175430
(0.13858)
[-1.26592]
0.024906
(0.22029)
[ 0.11306]
0.077199
(0.17065)
[ 0.45237]
DLCS(-3)
0.188533
(0.13050)
[ 1.44467]
0.067201
(0.20745)
[ 0.32394]
-0.071213
(0.16071)
[-0.44312]
DLINV(-1)
0.014646
(0.07694)
[ 0.19035]
0.005300
(0.12230)
[ 0.04333]
0.127618
(0.09475)
[ 1.34692]
DLINV(-2)
0.138934
(0.07710)
[ 1.80197]
-0.095856
(0.12256)
[-0.78211]
0.186674
(0.09495)
[ 1.96609]
DLINV(-3)
-0.006725
(0.08001)
[-0.08405]
0.143954
(0.12718)
[ 1.13189]
0.064294
(0.09853)
[ 0.65255]
DLINC(-1)
0.312555
(0.11545)
[ 2.70731]
0.286722
(0.18352)
[ 1.56238]
0.089076
(0.14217)
[ 0.62654]
DLINC(-2)
0.188434
(0.11734)
[ 1.60592]
-0.033163
(0.18652)
[-0.17780]
0.023680
(0.14450)
[ 0.16388]
DLINC(-3)
0.326857
(0.11940)
[ 2.73761]
0.032522
(0.18979)
[ 0.17136]
0.353083
(0.14703)
[ 2.40143]
5.423054
(2.98339)
[ 1.81775]
1.549264
(4.74239)
[ 0.32668]
7.723970
(3.67392)
[ 2.10238]
0.435742
0.370636
10996.20
11.87337
6.692744
-337.2972
7.893118
8.174633
20.71591
14.96659
0.086381
-0.019036
27785.43
18.87388
0.819420
-378.0835
8.820080
9.101595
7.250000
18.69676
0.324927
0.247034
16675.62
14.62156
4.171454
-355.6187
8.309516
8.591031
24.52273
16.85024
R-squared
Adj. R-squared
Sum sq. resids
S.E. equation
F-statistic
Log likelihood
Akaike AIC
Schwarz SC
Mean dependent
S.D. dependent
5898483.
-1060.569
24.78566
25.63020
VAR 1,4
Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 04/05/16 Time: 21:08
Sample(adjusted): 1961:2 1982:4
Included observations: 87 after adjusting endpoints
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
DLCS
DLINV
DLINC
DLCS(-1)
-0.446951
(0.15210)
[-2.93857]
-0.061556
(0.23455)
[-0.26245]
0.006813
(0.18900)
[ 0.03605]
DLCS(-2)
-0.182337
(0.14608)
[-1.24823]
0.005283
(0.22526)
[ 0.02345]
0.107280
(0.18152)
[ 0.59100]
DLCS(-3)
0.194506
(0.14188)
[ 1.37095]
0.193852
(0.21879)
[ 0.88604]
-0.021023
(0.17630)
[-0.11925]
DLCS(-4)
0.247473
(0.13367)
[ 1.85132]
-0.148001
(0.20613)
[-0.71798]
0.308581
(0.16611)
[ 1.85770]
DLINV(-1)
0.042757
(0.07794)
[ 0.54861]
-0.059076
(0.12018)
[-0.49155]
0.150010
(0.09685)
[ 1.54892]
DLINV(-2)
0.123633
(0.07759)
[ 1.59337]
-0.058988
(0.11965)
[-0.49299]
0.165721
(0.09642)
[ 1.71875]
DLINV(-3)
-0.005471
(0.07945)
[-0.06886]
0.135730
(0.12252)
[ 1.10786]
0.067040
(0.09873)
[ 0.67904]
DLINV(-4)
-0.108130
(0.08201)
[-1.31848]
0.374224
(0.12647)
[ 2.95907]
-0.110070
(0.10191)
[-1.08007]
DLINC(-1)
0.361603
(0.11712)
[ 3.08748]
0.231656
(0.18061)
[ 1.28266]
0.143530
(0.14554)
[ 0.98620]
DLINC(-2)
0.188556
(0.12124)
[ 1.55526]
-0.115274
(0.18696)
[-0.61658]
-0.001543
(0.15066)
[-0.01024]
DLINC(-3)
0.305384
(0.12357)
[ 2.47135]
-0.045406
(0.19055)
[-0.23829]
0.310028
(0.15355)
[ 2.01902]
DLINC(-4)
-0.023818
(0.12516)
[-0.19030]
0.016020
(0.19301)
[ 0.08300]
-0.127514
(0.15553)
[-0.81987]
3.750624
(3.09141)
[ 1.21324]
2.295003
(4.76717)
[ 0.48142]
6.246318
(3.84153)
[ 1.62600]
0.470320
0.384426
0.193136
0.062294
0.355974
0.251537
R-squared
Adj. R-squared
10271.77
11.78167
5.475591
-330.9969
7.907974
8.276443
20.82759
15.01643
24426.06
18.16816
1.476095
-368.6788
8.774225
9.142695
7.114943
18.76193
15861.39
14.64046
3.408510
-349.8971
8.342463
8.710932
24.62069
16.92270
5158561.
-1042.686
24.86635
25.97176
Cuadro Resumen
CRITERIO
REZAGO 1 1
REZAGO 1 2
REZAGO 1 3
REZAGO 1 4
Akaike
24.69332
24.79976
24.78566
24.86635
Schwarz
25.02662
25.38696
25.63020
25.97176
Chi-sq
df
Prob.
DLINC
DLINV
13.33251
0.114261
1
1
0.0003
0.7353
All
13.80171
0.0010
Chi-sq
df
Prob.
DLCS
DLINV
0.674215
1.986102
1
1
0.4116
0.1587
All
4.410205
0.1102
Chi-sq
df
Prob.
DLCS
DLINC
0.301074
3.732220
1
1
0.5832
0.0534
All
4.763406
0.0924
Contraste de Hiptesis
Nivel de
Significancia
Regla de Decisin
P-Valor >
Acepto Ho
No hay Causalidad
Ho:
0
No Causalidad
entre las variables
5% (0,05)
P-Valor <
Rechazo Ho, Acepto H1
Hay Causalidad
0
H1:
Causalidad
entre las variables
Por esta prueba concluimos que:
DLINC
DLINV
DLCS
DLINV
DLCS
DLINC
DLCS
DLINC
DLINV
Rechazamos la
hiptesis nula
Aceptamos la
hiptesis nula
Aceptamos la
hiptesis nula
Aceptamos la
hiptesis nula
Aceptamos la
hiptesis nula
Aceptamos la
hiptesis nula
En resumen:
0.053799
0.150476