Proceedings of PACAM XIV

14th Pan-American Congress of Applied Mechanics

March 24-28, 2013, Santiago, Chile

FLASH FLOOD PREDICTION USING GIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY

Amaly Fong Lee, alflim01@gmail.com
Carlos Plazaola, carlos.plazaola@utp.ac.pa
Ilka Banfield, ilka.banfield@utp.ac.pa
Adan Vega, adan.vega@utp.ac.pa
Laboratorio Especializado en Procesos de Unin y Manufactura (LEPUM), School of Nechanical Engineering, Technological
University of Panama. Panama City, Panama

Abstract. A finite volume model has been developed in order to simulate the phenomenon of flash flood in complex
terrain. At first, the finite volume code is introduced. Then, the procedure to select the mathematical model is
explained. After that, the process followed to build the mesh model as well to choose the initial and boundary
conditions used in the model are discussed. Finally, an explanation of the process followed to solve the numerical
model using ANSYS CFX is given.

Keywords: Flash Flood, CFD, Numerical Analysis, Finite Volume Method, precipitation, nearby regions.
1.

INTRODUCTION

It is well known that water is one of the most precious natural resources, due to various social, economic and
environmental benefits provided to the population. However, water can have the opposite effect when an excess of it is
mixed with other leading to natural disasters like floods.
Of all natural disasters, floods are the most destructive in terms of magnitude and impact in human (Gaume, E.,
(2008)). During the past 30 years the number of natural disasters has increased significantly worldwide, with the largest
floods increase, they have affected nearly 2 billion people and it is estimated to have caused economic damage per 400
billion dollars (Groisman, P.Y., Knight, R.W., Karl, T.R., Easterling, D.R., Sun, B., Lawrimore, J., (2004)). However,
recently it has been recognized that floods are ecologically important for the ecosystems because they are part of the
natural dynamics and many species depend on them (Ikeda, S., Sato, T., Fukuzono, T. (2008)).
On the other hand, the flooding of land used for industry, intensive farming activities and built-up areas involves
the diffusion of substances and products whose use under normal conditions do not represent a risk to water quality, but
as a result of an episode of flooding, become dangerous contaminants thereof, with potential effects on the health of
citizens and affected ecosystems.
Floods are usually a direct result of hydro meteorological phenomena, excess water (precipitation) concentrated in
surface runoff or accumulation on flat terrain, caused by lack of or inadequate drainage, although in many cases by
human activity, (Borga, M., Anagnostou, E.N., Blo schl. G. , Creutin, J. D. , 2011). The magnitude of a flood depends
on the intensity (amount of rainfall in a given time) of precipitation, its distribution in space and the length of it. Also
influences the size of the watershed and drainage characteristics, topography, soil and land cover.
Due to the complexity of the problem, flash floods are studied from two main approaches: First: From the
perspective of the Earth (physiographic features), where the water makes contact with the ground surface, and
physiographic factors are considered. Second: From the consideration of weather issue where it is considered that the
event is produced or generated at a mesoscale level, in this approach various aspects involved in the meteorological
process are studied (Collier, C., (2007) ).
In this paper we present a new model that has been developed to facilitate the analysis of flash flood based on
numerical analysis. Further publication will include the development of a new method for flash flood prediction based
on the influence of precipitation of nearby regions on the flood of a region of interest.
2 FINITE VOLUME CODE
This paper has used commercial Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software to simulate the process of flash
flooding caused by the rains. The commercial package employed was ANSYS -CFX. ANSYS -CFX works by solving
the equations of fluid flow in the region of interest, with particular limiting conditions. The (DPE) differential partial
equations that describe the processes of momentum and conservation of mass are known as Reynolds Averaged Navier
-Stokes Equations (RANS) based on the numerical solution by finite volumes. The method of finite volume
discretization is based on an integral form of PDE to be solved (the time, energy, etc.). The domain is discretized to
calculate finite volume, and in each of these volumes (or cells) the governing equations are solved. This numerical
method has been implemented in constant growth over the past two decades in the CFD. The same procedures offer the
possibility to perform a detailed investigation of the behavior of three-dimensional flow generation along its route to
reach a place of interest, under different working conditions.

Proceedings of PACAM XIV

14th Pan-American Congress of Applied Mechanics

March 24-08, 2013, Santiago, Chile

3. SIMULATION TYPE AND CONTROL PARAMETERS

Two types of simulation: stationary (steady state) and real-time (transient) are performed. In the stationary
simulation, CFX applies false time intervals as a means to soften the van while iterating equations to the final solution.
Because the solver formulation is robust and fully implicit, usually relatively large scaled to achieve the fastest possible
convergence time applies. This convergence is usually obtained between 50 and 200 iterations. In real-time simulation,
the solver solves the governing equations at each given time interval. To achieve convergence a number of iterations per
cycle are established, and once reached or completed iterations, the solver must solve the next time interval. It is
important to have good control of convergence, since this depends on the solution is sufficiently accurate or not. In our
case, we used real-time simulations and defined a number of 15 interactions per cycle, these after several cases and
determined that the number gave us good convergence.
4 FINITE VOLUME MODEL SELECTION
In CFD simulations of flash floods first is necessary to choose the 3D watershed model. In our case, a model
obtained through satellite geographical information, from a random basin was used. After choose the model of the
watershed, the mesh model is created. To save computational resources, you must use techniques to create a 3D mesh
model, enabling realistic simulation times and the most accurate results possible. The location of the constraints or
boundary conditions, the flow rate which would be submitted, and the initial conditions are other key aspects of the
simulation using CFD. This section describes in detail each of the aspects listed above.
4.1 Selection for 3D Mesh Model
Meshing is an important part of our modeling, since we have to solve the proposed partial differential equations,
which are those that govern our physical model; we require dividing the computational domain into smaller elements
that allow us to find a solution as accurately as possible to each of the variables of interest. The decision resulting from
the discretization of the domain cannot be separated from the computational model response; hence there is a need to
create meshes that adequately represent the domain and which may also have a quality that favors the computational
elements solution.
To perform the hydrodynamic and hydraulic analysis (needed in the study of flash floods), we must ensure that we
have a continuous domain, allowing us the governing equations are valid in the entire domain, except for the condition
contour. Thus we can define the behaviour of the variables of interest throughout the computational domain, where the
mesh allows us to guarantee the condition of continuity.
The information we have to build the domain is the earth's surface, which translates to the model meshing domain
of irregular shape. It is the representation of the irregularities of the earth. The mesh model allows dividing the area of
interest into smaller elements so called cells and constitute the largest division in which we have the problem domain.
Our model considers a two-phase model (because we in the domain movement of water and the presence of
atmospheric air), and since we consider a transient state for fluids (as we refer to a flash flood that occurs on a spatial
scale reduced), we have to consider the turbulence within the phenomenon. It is noteworthy that the quality of the mesh
where turbulence is presented should be much higher. Another important aspect is the fact that the simulation of
phenomena biphasic increases demands and considerations thereof. This, plus the fact that a watershed model for the
study of flash flood carries a large tract of land, made the selection process of meshing an important aspect in this paper.
4.1.1 Continuous Domain Meshing
There are two methods with which we can perform the meshing of the continuous domain, a mesh is structured
and unstructured meshing second. In structured meshing elements have the same number of neighboring elements, in
this way the access to data of the neighboring cells is easier and much faster in time, as to identify the neighboring
elements add or subtract the index element identified. These are well structured meshes due to the topological structure
with adjacency uniform. The unstructured mesh is a kind of mesh where the cell number does not represent any position
in particular. It requires more computing capacity, but it allows you to solve the problem when complex geometries
exist. Because of these considerations we have chosen an unstructured mesh in this paper. This mesh image is shown in
Figure 1.
4.1.2 Selecting the type of element finite volume
There are different types of items that can be used in the analysis by the finite volume method. But yet the most
recommended are the tetrahedral elements as it facilitates the study of complex geometries. Some of the conditions for
choosing this type of element for meshing are Quick setup , no surface meshing , mesh generation is required directly
from CAD surface , controlling the size of the elements within the control volume , fast algorithm (1500 items /
second).

Proceedings of PACAM XIV

14th Pan-American Congress of Applied Mechanics

March 24-28, 2013, Santiago, Chile

Figure 1 Representation of the mesh used to discretize the domain model of the basin
The software ANSYS - CFX uses Delaunay method for joining nodes (mesh generation based on the creation of
elements), and which has been shown to be the most suitable for troubleshooting method volumes finite. This is based
on the use of the Voronoi diagram, which according to the amount of specified points are selected in the form of joining
them. A triangulation of a point cloud is Delaunay if there is a correspondence between the triangulation and the
Voronoi diagram.
4.1.3 Considerations Taken Account for Continuous Domain Meshing
Since our representation of the physical model is finally generated by a CAD model, there are some
considerations that had to take into account to achieve a mesh of our domain, among which are the following: (1)
independent meshing the surface topology behind: for volumes that are created from cut surfaces is independent
meshing that takes place in the volume and on the surface, although they kept the principle of continuity. (2) No surface
meshing is required: when the curves are specified at boundaries of the surface, the tetrahedral mesh can create a
triangular mesh over the surface contour. Similarly given some points used meshing geometry points to extract the
points and curves. ( 3) Definition of the size of the element in the CAD model given the fact that our model was
constructed using CAD tools , the size of the elements according to the size of the network created to build the surfaces
are determined. (4) You can add thicker than the individual parts of the domain: in this way having already created the
mesh can thicken some meshing previously created. (5) Automatic detection of holes in the mesh and easily repaired:
discontinuities can repair our domain; due to the ease of model unstructured tetrahedral meshing using points and
curves.
4.1.4 Parametric study of meshing
The numerical errors that can occur in the solution by the finite volume method, using CFD, are directly related to
the geometry. These numerical errors, whether the number of iterations required to achieve convergence, or simply
discretization errors, can be reduced either by decreasing the time intervals set in the solution, as with decreasing mesh
size. However, it is important to note that the latter represents a considerable increase in computation time and memory
usage. Therefore, the size of the mesh plays an important role to find the optimal balance between the cost of memory,
computing time and accuracy in the results.
In order to consider these aspects in this paper, we proceeded to perform simulations with different models
(models with tetrahedral elements of different sizes). Cases studied are shown in Table 1.
Table 1 Case studies meshing
Case No.
1
2
3

Number of elements
31590
58722
169863

Number of nodes
5484
10140
26221

Proceedings of PACAM XIV

14th Pan-American Congress of Applied Mechanics

March 24-08, 2013, Santiago, Chile

Here it is important to mention that the software package we have for the realization of this paper is the Academic
version of ANSYS which is limited to no more than 250,000 elements or nodes, which limit the computational resource
to up to four cores.
To compare the quality of the three different meshes studied, a random point is selected within the area of interest.
Then, the pressure was compared for each case, after performing a simulation of flooding for a period of one hour. The
finite volume model used was the same for all cases studied in this paper. The initial condition and the boundary
conditions are the same for all three cases.

Case No.
1
2
3

Table 2 Study Results meshing

Pressure on water intake point of
Increased pressure on the point of
interest (Pascals)
interest (%)
967.13
----944.82
2.31
944.01
0.08

As expected, the study showed that as the number of items increased, the solution of the problem varied. But
nevertheless, the variation in the results between the existing case 1, 2 and 3 is not so high that, therefore, considered
acceptable error margin. Note that in our particular case is a watershed model approximately eight (8) kilometers long
and two hundred feet wide and three hundred feet high, indicating that the size of the elements in this model is restricted
to not less than 10 meters, which is acceptable for this type of simulation.
After this exercise, we proceeded to make the rest of our study using the mesh case 2. This facilitated us the
simulation since the computational time and memory requirements were acceptable. Furthermore, in this paper, rather
than simply predict flash flood, we seek to propose a new method of how to do it by easily and precisely way.
Therefore, we selected the mesh model that better help us to achieve that goal.
4.2. Initials Conditions
From the perspective of modeling the source of difficulty is the discretization of the initial conditions for a
continuous domain. In developing our model, we pay especially attention to this to avoid complications when
performing the simulations.
In our problem are: conditions of entry (where the flow is predominant input to the domain), exit conditions (flow
predominates output domain), opening conditions and conditions of a wall (It is an impenetrable fluid condition in the
domain).
The equations given for each node are as follows:

C i i+ C aa+ C bb+ C d d+ Ce e+ Cf f = 0
(1)

j
Cj
Where:
is the variable or function that is to be determined;
are coefficients dependent on the relative
position of node i with neighbouring or adjacent nodes are a, b, c, d, e, f coefficients are dependent on the relative
position of node i with Neighbouring nodes are adjacent or in a region or field R. These problems can be those where
there is a potential fluid flow, heat transfer by conduction current in an electric field and as in our case, shear flow in a
continuous medium, which must be satisfied that:
(2)
2 = 0
4.3. Boundary Conditions
The boundary conditions (boundary) equations allow fluid related problem can be solved numerically, with the
specification of conditions at the outer boundaries of the domain. Each boundary condition produces different solutions
according to the geometry and configuration of the physical model. The boundary conditions are very important
because they determine the characteristics of the solution to be obtained. They also reflect the real situation that would
allow the results to be more accurate.
The boundary conditions are set on the surfaces of our domain and those who depend on them externally is
happening to our domain. The boundary conditions allow us to solve the equations that govern the model presented.
There are different kinds of boundary conditions among which may be mentioned:
a- Boundary conditions of the first class: The nodes that meet this condition are those with known potential such as
impervious surfaces , and flow in porous media. It holds that:

j= constante

(3)

Proceedings of PACAM XIV

14th Pan-American Congress of Applied Mechanics

March 24-28, 2013, Santiago, Chile

b - Boundary conditions of the second kind: The nodes that meet this condition are those where the potential gradient is
known as cross sections where average speed is known. For example: fluid flow and potential flow in a porous media.

k = V = constante
n

(4)

C - Boundary conditions of third class: This condition is satisfied in nodes which their performance is determined by the
ratio of potential with its gradient.

h
(Ck+ Rk [ ]) k + Ca a+ Cb b+ Cd d + Ce e= 0
k
.

(5)

5. NUMERICAL SOLUTION OF THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL

A key step in modeling by finite volume constitutes the solution of the system of equations arising from the
problem. This step is basically the solution of the equations of flow behavior for each of the elements and nodes on
which the model is discretized. Given the fact that this system of resulting equations that must be solved, is so extensive
that it is impossible to solve by hand, we rely on the software ANSYS - CFX , as mentioned in previous sections.
5.1. Analysis of results
The final stage of the process of simulation flash flooding is obtaining the results for the different nodes and
elements. In this paper, we use two ways to represent the results. First, a three-dimensional graphical form obtained
directly from the software, and second, by plotting the data obtained from each node. The first way is very useful in
understanding the overall problem as it allows to visualize the results were distributed throughout the domain which is
also easy to interpret . But nevertheless for comparison and trend analysis, the second path representation is most
appropriate results. Examples of software graphical results obtained for a case -flood simulation are presented in
Figures 2 and 3.
6. CONCLUSIONS
From the results of this study the following conclusion are drawn:
1. Flash floods are natural phenomena that cause extensive damage and lost both material and human , so we
should pay special attention, especially in the development of early warning systems
2. Existing methods for predicting flash floods are not entirely effective, most will not allow you enough time to
issue warnings as necessary to evacuate populations at risk their homes and are located in sites not risk.
3. The prediction of flash floods in real time is only possible if the satellite information systems are integrated with
geographic information systems and computer integrated tools that help us obtain analysis results in extremely
short times.
4. During the study of flash floods must be known as accurately as possible the geometry of the field as well as the
characteristics, which is why it is essential, the use of geographic information systems that minimize the errors of
the geometric product approximations.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Financial support from The Secretary of Science and Technology (SENACYT) of The Government of The
Republic of Panama and by The School of Mechanical Engineering, Technological University of Panama are gratefully
acknowledged

Proceedings of PACAM XIV

14th Pan-American Congress of Applied Mechanics

March 24-08, 2013, Santiago, Chile

Figure 2 Graphical representation of the pressure produced by the flash flood on the control domain

Figure 3 Graphical representation of the viscosity produced by the flash flood on the study area

REFERENCES
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management: the HYDRATE project. Environmental Science & Policy14, 834-844
Collier, C., (2007) Flash flood forecasting: what are the limits of predictability Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133
(622A): 323.
Gaume, E., Borga, M., (2008) Post-flood field investigations in upland catchments after major flash floods:
proposal of a methodology and illustrations. Journal of Flood Risk Management 1 (4) :175189.
Groisman, P.Y., Knight, R.W., Karl, T.R., Easterling, D.R., Sun, B., Lawrimore, J., (2004) Contemporary
changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: trends. Journal of Hydrometeorology 5 (1)
:6485.
Ikeda, S., Sato, T., Fukuzono, T. (2008) Towards an integrated management framework for emerging disaster
risks in Japan. Nat Hazards 44(2):267280. doi:10.1007/s11069-007-9124-3.
RESPONSIBILITY NOTICE
The authors: Amaly Fong Lee, Carlos Plazaola, Ilka Banfield and Adan Vega, are the only responsible for the
printed material included in this paper.