A DISCUSSION ABOUT ALASKAS FUTURE

April 2016

Plan4Alaska.com

Methodology
Strategies 360 conducted a statewide survey of
registered voters in Alaska.
801 interviews were completed March 23 29, 2016.

Interviews were conducted on both landline (65%)

and mobile phones (35%).
Sample is representative of the Alaska electorate.
Margin of error for the poll is +/-3.5%

The Alaska Economy

Current Condition

Condition a Year from Now

72%
50%

26%

25%
17%

Excellent/
Good

Only Fair/
Poor

(July: 37%)

(July: 61%)

Better

Same

(July: 22%)

(July: 35%)

Worse

(July: 35%)

Trend in Economic Perceptions

55%

56%

49%
41%
37%
25%
May 2012

Oct. 2012

Nov. 2013

Jan. 2015

July 2015

Mar. 2016

Percentages indicate proportion of voters saying the economy is in excellent or good shape.

Top Issues to Address

July
Budget / Taxes

57%
27%

Economy / Pocketbook

14%

9%

10%

8%

8%

K-12 / Higher Education

Health Care

33%

10%

Oil Industry

Education Funding

31%

6%

14%

Transportation / Infrastructure

4%

4%

Community Issues

4%

12%

3%

9%

Environment / Energy

Budget Issues by Party

Budget / Taxes

57%
27%

Economy / Pocketbook

10%

Oil Industry

9%

K-12 / Higher Education

Education Funding
Health Care

8%
6%

Transportation / Infrastructure

4%

Community Issues

4%

Environment / Energy

3%

Budget / Tax Issues by Party

Republicans

62%

Independents

54%

Democrats

54%

Alaskans Pay Much Lower Broad-Based

State Taxes Than Residents of any Other
State

Alaska

Alaska State Taxes

Compared to Other States?
March 2016

July 2015

52%

47%
12%

11%

Higher

Same

17%
Lower Don't Pay
Taxes

Republicans: 14-10-46-18

13%

15%

Higher

Same

13%
Lower Don't Pay
Taxes

Concern about Budget Shortfall

March 2016

Trend: Extremely Concerned

77%

49%
43%

31%
22%
49%
extremely

Extremely/ Fairly Somewhat/ Not

Very

July 2015

Jan. 2016

Mar. 2016

Shifts in Concern by Party

March 2016
Extremely Concerned by Party

77%

Trend: Extremely Concerned

July

March

Shift

49%
Republicans

29%

53%

Independents

33%

45%

+12

31% 49%
30%

+19

Democrats

22%

43%+24

49%
extrmly

Extremely/ Fairly Somewhat/ Not

Very

July 2015

Jan. 2016

Mar. 2016

After Providing More Info

Alaska has a state budget of approximately $5 billion per year. However, the state is currently facing an
annual budget shortfall of over $3.8 billion. Knowing this, how concerned are you about the current
budget shortfall facing the state of Alaska?

81%

58%
extremely
Extremely/ Fairly

18%

Somewhat/ Not Very

Preferred Solution for Shortfall?

Margin

67%

27%

Cuts and
New
Revenue
(Jan: 65%)

Only

Budget
Cuts

(Jan: 30%)

Republicans

62-33

+29

Independents

66-30

+36

Democrats

79-15

+64

Anchorage

69-25

+44

Fairbanks

71-22

+49

Kenai

71-27

+44

Mat-Su

55-40

+15

Rural

54-34

+20

Southeast

69-28

+41

White

69-26

+43

AK Native

55-34

+21

All Other

69-27

+42

Impact on Economy without

New Revenue
Negative Impact by Party
Republicans

51%

Independents

55%

Democrats

67%

57%

17%

16%

Positive

No Impact

Negative

Alaska State Taxes

Compared to Other States?
March 2016

July 2015

52%

47%
12%

11%

Higher

Same

17%
Lower Don't Pay
Taxes

Republicans: 14-10-46-18

13%

15%

Higher

Same

13%
Lower Don't Pay
Taxes

Heard of Proposed Budget Cuts?

91%

34%
24%

33%
7%

A Great Deal

A Fair Amount

Some But Not Much

Nothing At All

Awareness by Party
A Great Deal or Fair Amount
by Party

34%
24%

Republicans

53%

Independents

58%

Democrats

68%

33%
7%

A Great Deal

A Fair Amount

Some But Not Much

Nothing At All

Concern Over Proposed Cuts to

State Programs and Services
Margin

66%

28%

Concerned

Not Concerned

Republicans

51-41

+10

Independents

70-25

+45

Democrats

79-17

+62

Anchorage

64-30

+34

Fairbanks

61-32

+29

Kenai

62-27

+35

Mat-Su

53-41

+12

Rural

78-15

+63

Southeast

61-32

+29

White

65-29

+36

AK Native

73-20

+53

All Other

67-28

+39

Only asked if heard of proposed budget cuts.

Likelihood that Alaska will Introduce a

Broad-based tax in the Next 5 Years?
83%
30%

28%

25%

11%

Extremely Likely

Fairly Likely

Somewhat Likely

Not Very Likely

Likelihood of Broad-based tax by Party

Likely By Party

30%

28%

Republicans

85%

Independents

81%

Democrats

85%

25%

11%

Extremely Likely

Fairly Likely

Somewhat Likely

Not Very Likely

Support for a Generic Income Tax

March 2016

47%
+6

July 2015

56%

50%
-6

Support / Lean Oppose / Lean

41%

Support / Lean Oppose / Lean

Shifts in Support by Party

March 2016

65%

July 2015

Sales Tax Support by Party

July

March

Shift

Republicans

56%

55%
61%

+5
41%

Independents
31%

53%

70%

+17

Democrats

63%

68%

+5

Support / Lean Oppose / Lean

Support / Lean Oppose / Lean

Support for a 1.5% Income Tax

One way AK could introduce a state personal income tax would be a
flat tax of approximately 1.5% on income earned in AK. Under this
plan, the state could raise an estimated $200 million per year to help
close the budget shortfall. It is estimated that 80% of the total
income tax collected from Alaskans will be paid by the wealthiest
20% of Alaskans. A married couple who earn $60,000 and have one
child would pay $204 in state income tax. Low income people would
pay no state income tax.

52%

42%

Support

Oppose

Margin
Republicans

41-53

-12

Independents

50-43

+7

Democrats

72-25

+47

Anchorage

52-43

+9

Fairbanks

59-40

+19

Kenai

49-37

+12

Mat-Su

33-62

-29

Rural

58-29

+29

Southeast

54-41

+13

White

51-43

+8

AK Native

60-32

+28

All Other

50-46

+4

<$50k HHI

64-28

+36

$50k-75k HHI

57-39

+18

$75k-100k HHI

50-43

+7

$100k+ HHI

47-49

-2

Support for PF Endowment Model

In order to help address the budget shortfall and reduce the
likelihood of similar shortfalls in the future, some have suggested a
plan that would include a combination of budget cuts and
restructuring the Permanent Fund. Under this plan, the state would
use a portion of Permanent Fund earnings to fund public services.
While yearly dividends would continue, these changes are estimated
to reduce the amount of next years dividend to around $1,000, with
the amount to fluctuate after that.

48%

Support

48%

Oppose

Margin
Republicans

43-54

-11

Independents

47-49

-2

Democrats

60-37

+23

Anchorage

52-45

+7

Fairbanks

56-42

+14

Kenai

39-52

-13

Mat-Su

38-60

-22

Rural

47-43

+4

Southeast

40-54

-14

White

50-47

+3

AK Native

36-55

-19

All Other

54-42

+12

<$50k HHI

39-54

-15

$50k-75k HHI

37-57

-20

$75k-100k HHI

53-46

+7

$100k+ HHI

60-38

+22

Support for a Generic Sales Tax

March 2016

July 2015

65%
55%

+10

41%
31%
-10

Support / Lean Oppose / Lean

Support / Lean Oppose / Lean

Shifts in Support by Party

March 2016

65%

July 2015

Sales Tax Support by Party

July

March

Shift

Republicans

56%

55%
61%

+5
41%

Independents
31%

53%

70%

+17

Democrats

63%

68%

+5

Support / Lean Oppose / Lean

Support / Lean Oppose / Lean

Is a $1,000 Permanent Fund

Dividend Next Year Acceptable?
68%

+X

24%
+X

Acceptable

Unacceptable

Is a $1,000 Permanent Fund

Dividend Next Year Acceptable?
Acceptable by Party

68%

Republicans

66%

Independents

65%

Democrats

79%

+X

24%
+X

Acceptable

Unacceptable

Executive Summary
By a wide margin, voters say the state budget is the issue
theyd most like to see addressed.
Concern about the economy is at a four-year high.
67% of voters want the shortfall addressed using a
combination of cuts and new revenue, and nearly 60%
believe addressing the budget shortfall with a cuts-only

approach will further harm the economy.

Support for broad-based taxes has increased substantially
since July.

Our Ask
Its critical for Alaskas future that we have a
comprehensive plan now.

Your legislators need to

hear from you.

Take the Plan4Alaska Fiscal Challenge and share your
plan with your legislators.
Alaskas future depends on it!

Challenge.Plan4Alaska.com

THANK YOU
WWW.PLAN4ALASKA.COM