What are the likely effects of climate change on the

polar jet stream?

By Tom Anderson
Candidate Number 4209

A dissertation submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the

qualification of:
AQA Extended Project Qualification (EPQ)

Supervised by:
Mr. P. J. C. Hicks
At:
The Perse School
Cambridge
Centre Number 22133

CONTENTS

Introduction...4
A background....4
Modern applications of the jet stream........7
Recent weather trends..9
The phenomenon of Arctic Amplification.10
Arctic Amplification and the Polar Jet14
Alternative Interpretations15
Concluding Remarks.17
Terminology..18
Image Credits...19
Bibliography .20

well remember a brilliant red balloon which kept me completely happy

for a whole afternoon, until, while I was playing, a clumsy movement
allowed it to escape. Spellbound, I gazed after it as it drifted silently
away, gently swaying, growing smaller and smaller until it was only a
red point in a blue sky. At that moment I realized, for the first time, the
vastness above us: a huge space without visible limits. It was an apparent
void, full of secrets, exerting an inexplicable power over all the earths
inhabitants. I believe that many people, consciously or unconsciously, have
been filled with awe by the immensity of the atmosphere. All our knowledge
about the air, gathered over hundreds of years, has not diminished this
feeling.
Theo Loebsack, Our Atmosphere

Figure 1: Banded cirrus clouds running perpendicular to the jet streama tell-tale feature
photographed by an astronaut aboard Space Shuttle Discovery.

What are the likely effects3 of climate change on the

polar jet stream?
Introduction
In this investigation, I will attempt to address a number of key issues in order to effectively
answer my overall question, which concerns the likely effects of climate change on the
polar jet stream. Firstly, an understanding of what is meant by the polar jet stream is
necessary as there are many jets to potentially cause confusion, including weaker jets
found in subtropical latitudes, barrier jets and valley exit jets found around mountain
ranges (there have even been jet streams observed on Jupiter). I will seek to explore some
of the modern day uses of the polar jet stream, and how these applications might be
affected in future with the implications of climate change and rapid increases in
temperature at the poles. Finally, I will evaluate the contemporary studies of the effects of
climate change on the polar jet stream, and offer my own conclusions and predictions for
the future of this exciting, cutting-edge topic.

A background
There are a number of versions of who discovered the first jet stream, but we can be sure
that aviation played a key role in its twentieth century discovery, as early World War Two
American bomber pilots found they could hasten their transatlantic crossing by utilising a
high-altitude, high-speed ribbon of air. The first appearance of a jet stream in modern
literature was in 1939, when German meteorologist Heinrich Seilkopf 1 used the term in a
research paper. Interestingly, the Japanese had the idea to utilise a great strong current of
winter air2 (the jet stream) flowing over their country during the war to carry tens of
thousands of hydrogen balloons containing incendiary devices across the Pacific more than
8,000 kilometres with the intention of causing devastation to the U.S. mainland. Although
extremely ineffective as weapons, six people were killed in Oregon, in what were the only
casualties inflicted by the Axis powers on the American mainland in World War Two.
1 Hermann Flohn, Arbeiten zur allgemeinen Klimatologie. Darmstadt: Scientific Buchgesellschaft, 1971. 31.
2 John McPhee, Balloons of War. New York: The New Yorker, 1996. 52.

Figure 2: A cross-profile through the atmosphere. Height (in miles and

kilometres) is indicated along each side. Temperatures begin to increase again
at the tropopause because of the presence of a sunlight absorber in the
stratospheric air, ozone.

We live at the base of a soup of gases, constantly moving in all

directions the atmosphere. Virtually all of our weather occurs in
the lower portion, the troposphere, which contains about 80% of
the total mass of the atmosphere. 3 As shown in Fig. 2 and 3, the
troposphere extends from the Earth's surface to about 7
kilometres high at the poles and 17 kilometres high at the equator.
As the density of the air in this layer decreases with height, the air
temperature in the troposphere also decreases, from about 14 to
15 C typically at the surface to about -45 C at the top of the
troposphere. Commercial jet aircraft cruise at the top of the
troposphere, called the
Figure 3: (National
Oceanic and Atmospheric tropopause, at about 9-10km in altitude. The
Administration)
troposphere itself can even be divided into the
planetary
boundary layer (often visible as a haze, as pollution
may build up in this area) and above that the free atmosphere (where clouds form.
Meanwhile, the stratosphere extends from the tropopause's height of 7 to 17 kilometres to a
height of about 50 kilometres and contains about 19% of the atmospheric gases. 4 At the
tropopause, there is a temperature inversion due to the build-up of ozone at this altitude;
3 National Weather Service, 'Layers of the Atmosphere' <http://goo.gl/i4l7aK>, 14 December
2007.
4 Ibid.

thus the stratosphere experiences increasing temperature and solar radiation with height.
The stratosphere contains the ozone layer because the incoming solar radiation is
increasingly
absorbed
by oxygen
molecules
in
the

stratosphere, leading to the oxygen molecule gaining an extra atom, forming ozone (O 3).
The ozone layer resides in the lower portion of the stratosphere, though the thickness of
5 In addition, weather balloons can rise to
the layer varies seasonally and geographically.
about 40 kilometres (25 miles) before the difference between the pressure inside the
balloon and the outside atmospheric pressure causes the balloons to expand to the point at
which they burst.

Figure 4: A typical weather balloon sounding plotted onto a chart showing

atmospheric pressure variability with height above sea level

The polar jet stream itself is found at the tropopause (where the temperature inversion
begins), the layer separating the troposphere from the stratosphere. The conventional
wisdom among scientists as to why the polar jet stream is found here is that the
temperature difference between the cold polar air and relatively warmer subtropical air is
the greatest. But how does the temperature difference between two air masses cause the jet
stream?

Since colder air is more dense than warmer air, there is an air pressure difference between
them at any altitude. If the warm and cold air masses are quite deep (tall), higher altitudes
in the atmosphere experience progressively larger air pressure differences. Since it is
horizontal air pressure differences that causes wind, this can lead to very strong winds
sometimes exceeding 200 miles per hour. But as you increase in altitude beyond the
tropopause, the temperature difference reverses, and as you ascend further the winds then
Figure 5: A cross-section through the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere. Equatorial regions are
heated the most by the sun due to the high density of the suns incident rays, and so air rises at the
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ICTZ). It is then advected (transported horizontally) to the north via
the Hadley and Ferrel Cells (separated by a relatively weak subtropical jet stream) before meeting
cold polar air at the polar front, where the polar jet stream is located.

decrease. The altitude at which the winds were strongest is considered to be the jet stream
level.
In other words, the strongest jet stream winds occur between air masses having the largest
temperature differences over the deepest layer of the troposphere - typically in the
Northern Hemispheres winter, when the contrast between the frigid, sunless Arctic and
the mid-latitudes should be at its greatest. Even though the wind tries to flow from high
pressure to low pressure, the Earths rotation6 causes the air flow to turn to the right in the
Northern Hemisphere (the Coriolis effect), so the jet stream flows around the air masses,
rather than directly from one to another. As a result, the jet stream does not cause
weather conditions of a certain type to occur. The jets existence is the result of suitable
conditions (a large temperature contrast between the polar and subtropical air masses),
and can be thought of more as a conveyor belt transporting weather systems to the UK
from the North Atlantic.

Modern applications of the jet stream

The jet stream and air travel
Jet stream winds have an important effect on airline operations and the planning of their
business. Flight times may be improved in transcontinental and transoceanic flights by
riding the jet stream, while flights in the other direction will do everything possible to
avoid a 200mph headwind, diverting around the jet stream path under the guidance of
oceanic air traffic controllers. Strong shears in the jet stream region can cause clear air
turbulence (CAT) that may, under serious conditions, lead to material fatigue and even
aircraft failure.5

5 John E. Oliver, Encyclopaedia of World Climatology (Berlin: Springer Science+Business Media,

2008) 438

Figure 6: An infographic visualising the air-traffic lane system over the North Atlantic.

Since roughly 44,000 crossings of the Atlantic Ocean are made every year by commercial
aircraft, airlines and pilots have become very adept at planning their routes. Jet stream
forecasts are released every twelve hours, where airlines then bid for a slot in the
Organized Track System (NAT-OTS), which also changes twice daily taking account the
shifting of the jet stream aloft. The end result is to provide the fastest possible route,
minimizing headwinds and maximising tailwinds
on the aircraft, resulting in much more
7
efficiency by reducing the amount of fuel burnt and the amount of fuel carried on-board.

Figure 7: Airline routes across the Pacific between San Francisco

and Tokyo following the most direct great circle (top), but
following the jet stream (bottom) when heading eastwards.

High-Altitude Wind Power (HAWP)

The polar jet stream has also been the subject of studies and trials of harnessing the wind
by the use of tether and cable technology to generate power. Although in practise this
would be extremely difficult to achieve, one major scientific article about jet stream power
has calculated that the total wind energy in the jet streams is roughly one hundred times
the current global energy demand.6

Figure 8: An enormous helium-filled wind turbine will soon float over Alaska producing electricity for
more than a dozen families living off the grid. Designed and built by MIT start-up Altaeros Energies, the
turbine known as the BAT-Buoyant Airborne Turbine will attempt to harness the powerful jet stream
winds.

Recent weather trends

The year 2015 made climate history, shattering all temperature records, featuring intense
heatwaves, exceptional rainfall, devastating drought and unusual tropical cyclone activity.
According to World Meteorological Organisation
statistics, that record-breaking trend is
8
continuing into 2016.7
Heat
-Many countries saw intense heatwaves. The most devastating ones in terms of human
impact were in India and Pakistan. Asia, as a continent, had its hottest year on record, as
did South America.
Western and Central Europe recorded an exceptionally long heatwave, with
temperature crossing or approaching 40C in several places. Several new temperature
records were broken (Germany 40.3C, Spain 42.6C, UK 36.7C).
North West USA and Western Canada suffered from a record wildfire season, with
more than 2 million hectares burned during summer in Alaska alone (an area slightly
larger than the size of Israel).
Heavy rainfall
6 Archer, Cristina L. and Ken Caldeira, 'Global Assessment of High-Altitude Wind Power', Energies (2009), 2
307-319

7 World Meteorological Organisation, 'State of the Climate: Record Heat and Weather Extremes'
<http://goo.gl/32yhVc>, 21 March 2016.

There were many cases of extreme rainfall last year:

In Africa, Malawi suffered its worst flooding ever in January. The West coast of
Libya received more than 90mm of rain in 24 hours in September, compared to the
monthly average of 8mm.

Figure 10: A collection of some climate-related headlines. Recent

years have seen increased media interest in anthropogenic
Figure 9: NOAA
infographic showing
some
recentfocusing
unusualon
climatic
around the world
(human-induced)
climate
change,
Arctic events
warming.

The phenomenon of Arctic Amplification

9
The Earths climate system is patently in a confused state of affairs, displaying a clear
human influence8, with all sorts of aforementioned records being broken regularly. When
considering global atmospheric circulation, there are all sorts of factors at play in such a
complicated system, such as an unusually strong El Nio effect in recent years and
Milankovitch cycles, but a question still remains as to how much of our recent bizarre
weather is due to a recent phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification.
Since the 1950s, accurate measurements have been taken of the concentration of carbon
dioxide (CO2) in the Earths atmosphere from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. In
1958 when American scientist Charles Keeling originally began taking these
measurements, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 was around 310 parts per million
(ppm).9 Today, due to our intensive burning of fossil fuels for energy, industry, agriculture
and transport; we are the first humans to breathe air of more than 400ppm CO2, as
illustrated by Figure 11.
8 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fifth Assessment Report (Geneva:
2014) vi.
9 Scripps Institution of Oceanography, The Early Keeling Curve, <http://goo.gl/Sj709H> 25
February 2016.

Figure 11: Keelings measurements were at the time a dramatic discovery,

representing one of the most important geophysical records ever made.

Whats more, with modern technological advances and discoveries, scientists have been
able to delve deep into the Earths geophysical history as far back as millions of years
through the analysis of tree rings and digging hundreds of metres down into polar ice cores
where bubbles of CO2 have been trapped and preserved. Further examination of these
records has enabled us to determine what the Earths temperature was like many epochs
10 Assessment) diagram:
ago, and can be represented in this IPCC (Third

Figure 12: The 800,000 year record of atmospheric CO2 from Antarctic ice cores,
and a reconstruction of temperature based on hydrogen isotopes in the ice.
The 2001 (when the AR3 Report was released) CO2 concentration of 392 ppm is
represented by the blue star. Just fifteen years on, this number has surpassed
400.

Together, the plots show a clear positive correlation between increased levels of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere and a warmer temperature on Earth. They also confirm the
notion that the amount of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere, and the Earth's temperature
itself, has fluctuated in a cyclical pattern through time. These cycles of cooling and
warming are natural, and caused, over the last 800,000 years, primarily by cyclic changes
in Earth's orbit (previously mentioned Milankovitch cycles), propagating alternating
periods of warmth and periods of glaciations.
However, what this graph shows that is so concerning is that current levels of atmospheric
CO2 far exceed even the highest levels of the past 500,000 years, and our global
temperature is increasing in response to this additional greenhouse gas. Some analysts go
as far as suggesting that despite our climate agreements and treaties such as the UNFCCC,
humans have already locked-in significant temperature rises in future. This suspicion
appears justified when considering Fig. 12, as the Antarctic temperature still has a long
way to catch up with the increased CO2 pumped into our atmosphere, since the two
measures are visibly closely interlinked.
If we examine the recent data, it is clear that the Earths temperature is starting to catch
up. According to the WMO, 15 of the 16 hottest years on record have occurred during the
21st century.10 Moreover, as this Figure shows, it isnt as simple as suggesting that warming
is occurring at a uniform gradient from the poles to the tropics. A wide variety of local
factors, such as the albedo of the region, influence
the extent to which warming occurs. In
11
some patches, sea surface temperatures have even been observed to be cooling, though the
outlook does not look healthy for the polar regions in particular, showing the emerging
signals of arctic amplification. Fig. 13 shows the high latitudes are not 1 degree warmer
than pre-industrial levels (as is the global average) but more like 10, 11 or 12 degrees above
normal.

Figure 13: Anomalies (departures from average) in surface temperature

across the globe for February 2016, in degrees Celsius.

10 NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Global Analysis
for Annual 2015, <https://goo.gl/oOuHSW>, January 2016.

Figure 14: Temperature anomalies with latitude band.

Figure 14 shows this temperature anomaly data in a graph format, grouping slices of the
earth into zonal bands of latitude. The data shows that apart from a period around World
War Two, temperatures have varied consistently across the globe from around 1920 to
1980 (as shown by the lines running equidistant to one another in a group). However, after
1990, the temperature anomaly for the Arctic latitude band in particular (66 north of the
equator) begins to show very different behaviour as temperatures begin to rapidly pick up
relative to the rest of the world. Evidently, different parts of the planet respond at different
rates to GHG emissions, and scientists are paying particular attention to the Arctic having
considered the arctic amplification in Figure 14.
The process of heating in the Arctic regions 12
is believed to be increasing ever more rapidly
because of the significance of the albedo of the snow cover and ice. White, snow covered
surfaces are poor emitters and absorbers of heat, reflecting as much as 90% of the suns
radiation back out into the atmosphere and much of this into space. 11 As sea temperatures
in the Arctic begin to increase, however, more and more solar radiation is absorbed by the
Arctic Ocean (especially in the summer, when the ice is at its smallest extent). Bodies of
water reflect the least amount of insolation of any type of surface, and year-by-year, more
of the suns energy becomes trapped and accumulated in the Ocean. Soon enough, a
dangerous positive feedback loop is initiated, and as more sea ice is melted, the low albedo
of the dark ocean left in its place in turn contributes to warmer waters and more ice-free
seawater.

11 Mike Lynch, Minnesota Weatherwatch (Minneapolis: Voyageur Press, 2007) 50.

Figure 15: Reconstruction based on satellite imagery of the polar sea ice cap extent, showing just how much
the cryosphere has diminished in a little over thirty years.

According to the lead study on this process of amplified warming in the Arctic, remarkably,
just over half of summer sea ice cover since 1980 has been lost. 12 Upon taking into account
the thickness of the ice, and multiplying it by the extent to which it has melted, we get the
volume: which is about 80% less than it was in 1980. 13 What little ice is left is described as
very broken, rotten and slushy. Moreover, polar scientists construe the ice as being very
weak, vulnerable and easily broken up by anomalies in the winds and ocean currents.

Arctic Amplification and the Polar Jet

Linking back to the polar jet stream, we know the strength of the jet stream is determined
primarily by the magnitude of the meridional (north-south) temperature gradient between
13
the cold polar air and relatively warmer subtropical
air. The ongoing climatic phenomenon
of Arctic Amplification implies a reduction in this temperature gradient, and can be
represented in this simplified infographic in Figure 16.

12 Jennifer A. Francis and Stephen J. Vavrus, 'Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to
rapid Arctic warming', Environmental Research Letters, No. 10 (2015) 5-7.
13 Ibid.

Figure 16: A representation of the linkage between Arctic Amplification and the new,
reduced meridional temperature gradient (shown in yellow) that drives the polar jet.

Furthermore, a slower jet stream tends to take a more meandering 14 (meridional) path as it
encircles the Northern Hemisphere. Large northsouth jet-stream waves in a highly
meandering flow, since they have thousands of miles extra to travel, tend to propagate
eastward more slowly. Therefore frontal depressions, anticyclones and other weather
systems ought to make slower progress towards the UK and Europe as the effects of Arctic
Amplification take hold. In addition to this, polar jet streams that are progressing eastward
more slowly carry the supplementary risk of more persistent weather patterns 15 that can
hang over a location for days or even weeks, with the potential to cause a variety of extreme
events. These conditions that future jet streams could bring could include unseasonably
cold, wet, hot or dry weather lasting for weeks at a time that can be just as destructive as
storms: their effects on biodiversity can be disastrous, leading variously to reduced crop
yields, crop failure, loss of biodiversity and wildfires, to name but a few effects.

Zonal wind at 500

hectopascals/millibars

14

14 David W. J. Thompson and John M. Wallace, 'Regional Climate Impacts of the Northern
Hemisphere Annular Mode' Science, No. 293 (August 2001) 85-89.
15 James A. Screen and Ian Simmonds, 'Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular
regional weather extremes', Nature Climate Change, No. 4 (2014) 704.

Dashed line represents sea

ice extent for comparison.
Figure 17: Graph depicting how the drop in high-altitude winds in
autumn over the past 30 years (solid line) has closely tracked
the decline in Arctic sea ice (dashed line).

Figure 17 reaffirms the connection between the loss of polar ice (and accompanied
warming of the Arctic region) and the falling jet stream speeds due to the reduced
meridional temperature gradient. Published by Dr. Jennifer Francis, the world leading
authority on jet stream changes in response to rapid Arctic warming, in a thorough, peerreviewed piece of research, one might expect the debate to end there. Notwithstanding her
publications, alternative interpretations and predictions do exist, and uncertainties remain
as to the accuracy of the data different scientists cite due to the small number of years data
has been gathered on polar jet stream winds, prompting intense debate in scientific circles.

Alternative Interpretations
Most people when interviewed agree that AGW is causing the polar regions to be
significantly altered, causing a new state of normal when it comes to the weather they
experience. When 1500 New Hampshire residents were asked the question:
If the Arctic region becomes warmer in the future, do you think that will have major
effects, minor effects or no effects on the weather where you live?
Sixty percent16 responded saying arctic warming will have major effects on their weather,
with a further twenty-nine percent suggesting this would have minor effects. Despite
public sentiment broadly mirroring the scientific consensus that there are unprecedented
and significant changes occurring in the polar regions, the mechanisms by which these
changes are influencing the jet stream are still highly disputed.

Study by Reading University

16 Lawrence C. Hamilton and Mary Lemcke-Stampone, Arctic warming and your weather: public
belief in the connection. International Journal of
15Climatology, 34 (2014) 1723-1728.

Jet streams often make the news when our daily lives become inconvenienced, for instance
when there is an unusual period of weather or when there is speculation that our flights
might last longer. As such, a February 2016 BBC News article brought public attention
towards a Reading University study, which essentially found through complicated
computer modelling that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 17 will increase the speed of the
jet stream, thus adding an hour or so to flight times between the UK and the USA,
requiring aircraft to carry and burn more fuel thus causing a significant rise in air fares.
The study has been dismissed by many
scientists, firstly since it is hard to foresee a
future where atmospheric CO2 levels double to
800ppm beyond their already record levels
with recent tough Paris climate change
legislation now in place.
Furthermore, CO2 emissions changing the
chemical make-up of air is unlikely to have a
link with influencing the physics behind the
temperature gradient which drives the polar jet
stream. Readings findings clearly contradict
the main tenant of arctic amplification.
Moreover, the study also ignores the fact that
even if they are correct, and future polar jet
streams are faster, the only foreseeable effect of
this will be hastier transatlantic crossings in a
westerly direction, since these aircraft can gain
a larger speed advantage. Meanwhile,
eastbound flights will be largely unaffected
since the pre-arranged tracks they take
deliberately avoid conflicting with the Figure 18: The University of Reading scientists
believe the changes will increase carbon
headwinds of the polar jet stream at any point.
emissions and fuel consumption and potentially
raise ticket prices.

17 Paul D. Williams, 'Transatlantic flight times and climate change', Environmental Research
Letters, Vol. 11, No. 2 (2016) 4.

16

Concluding Remarks
This investigation is not intended to provide the end of the debate, nor is it the only valid
interpretation of the evidence. Specific observations of the jet stream have only been
possible in the last thirty years or so due to a lack of technology, and climatic observations
require several decades or so to definitively distinguish natural atmospheric variability
from climate trends.
However, what we can be certain about is the rapid diminishment of the cryosphere due to
a positive feedback loop, where polar ice melts, exposing dark Arctic Ocean to sunlight,
which in turn melts more sea ice at an alarming rate. There is much evidence to suggest
that this melting is linked with jet stream speeds in the upper atmosphere, though it would
be negligent not to be cautious when saying that this trend is true, and that it will surely
reduce the meridional pressure gradient and weaken the polar jet stream. It might be
useful to take the approach of researchers Barnes and Screen when considering the issue.
They pose my question in three parts: can, has and will arctic warming influence the
polar jet stream? Most scientists would probably agree that yes, there is great potential for
arctic amplification and its associated polar warmth to slow and contort the jet stream, and
plenty of studies have shown this. With regards to has and will it, a more sensible
approach would be to answer yes conservatively. There is some evidence to support the
claim that the jet stream has been fundamentally changed in nature since AGW kicked in,
and many believe the jet stream will have a modulating role to play on our weather in
future. However depending on the scientific data one considers, there is an element of
confliction, since this is a relatively recent phenomenon, involving a short observational
record, with no clear answers yet.

With regards to the primary human use of the polar jet stream, which is for commercial
aviation, a future jet stream that is slower (not taking into account whether it meanders
more in a meridional direction) will only have an effect on flights that utilise the jet, flying
from West to East across the Atlantic for instance, as these planes will receive less of a
speed advantage. Aircraft flying in the opposite direction, as shown by Figure 6, tend to
take an alternative path of least resistance (typically on the equatorial rather than polar
side of the Atlantic) anyway and would be largely unaffected by jet streams.

17

Terminology
Glossary

Polar jet stream: A narrow ribbon of air that encircles the globe at an altitude of around 11
km, sometimes reaching speeds of up to 400 kph (250 mph) that
traverses the lower layers of the atmosphere. The jet is created by the
convergence of cold air masses descending from the Arctic and rising
warm air from the tropics. Deep troughs and steep ridges emerge as
the denser cold air sinks and deflects warm air regions north, giving
the jet stream its wavy appearance. This pattern propagates across the
mid-latitudes of North America, Europe and Asia, as pockets of cold
air sporadically creep down from the Arcticcreating contrasting
waves and flows that accelerate eastward due to the Earth's rotation.
Mauna Loa:

An observatory famed as the world's oldest continuous

CO2 monitoring station, and the world's primary benchmark site for
measurement of the gas. It is located on the side of a 4000 metre high
shield volcano of the same name, well above local human-generated
influences and far away from any continent.

Geostrophic wind: A theoretical wind, occurring when the pressure gradient force
(determined by the difference in high and low pressure/how close the
isobars are) equals the opposing Coriolis force (assuming
straight/nearly straight isobars; when the isobars are strongly curved,
the effect of the centrifugal force should be added).
Zonal:

A term used to describe directions on a globe, meaning along a line of

latitude or in the west-east direction.

Meridional:

A direction along a meridian or in the northsouth direction.

Acronyms
AA Arctic Amplification.
AGW Anthropogenic Global Warming.
GHG Greenhouse gas.
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
WMO World Meteorological Organisation.

Image Credits

Figure

18

Source
1 NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
2 Encyclopedia Britannica
3 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
4 John Mason
5 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
6 John Grimwade
7 Wikimedia Commons
8 Lidija Grozdanic
9 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
10 Tom Anderson (Candidate 4209)
11 Scripps Institution of Oceanography
12 U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
13 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
14 Jennifer Francis
15 University of Illinois
16 Tom Anderson (Candidate 4209)
17 Jennifer Francis
18 Tom Anderson (Candidate 4209)

19

Bibliography
Archer, Cristina L. and Ken Caldeira. 'Global Assessment of High-Altitude Wind Power',
Energies (2009).
Flohn, Hermann. Arbeiten zur allgemeinen Klimatologie. Darmstadt: Scientific
Buchgesellschaft, 1971.

Francis, Jennifer A. and Stephen J. Vavrus. 'Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to
rapid Arctic warming', Environmental Research Letters, No. 10 (2015)
Hamilton, Lawrence C. and Mary Lemcke-Stampone. Arctic warming and your weather:
public belief in the connection. International Journal of Climatology, 34 (2014)
Lynch, Mike. Minnesota Weatherwatch (Minneapolis: Voyageur Press, 2007).
McPhee, John. Balloons of War. New York: The New Yorker, 1996.
National Weather Service. 'Layers of the Atmosphere' <http://goo.gl/i4l7aK>, 14
December 2007.
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. State of the Climate: Global
Analysis for Annual 2015, <https://goo.gl/oOuHSW>, January 2016.
Oliver, John E. Encyclopaedia of World Climatology (Berlin: Springer Science+Business
Media, 2008).
Screen, James A. and Ian Simmonds. 'Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour
particular regional weather extremes', Nature Climate Change, No. 4 (2014).
Scripps Institution of Oceanography. The Early Keeling Curve, <http://goo.gl/Sj709H> 25
February 2016.
Thompson, David W. J. and John M. Wallace. 'Regional Climate Impacts of the Northern
Hemisphere Annular Mode' Science, No. 293 (August 2001).
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Fifth Assessment Report
(Geneva: 2014).
Williams, Paul D. 'Transatlantic flight times and climate change', Environmental Research
Letters, Vol. 11, No. 2 (2016).
World Meteorological Organisation. 'State of the Climate: Record Heat and Weather
Extremes' <http://goo.gl/32yhVc>, 21 March 2016.

20