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Econ 41
Anastasia Burkovskaya
27 April 2016

Midterm exam

Version 1
You are allowed to use a simple calculator and a hand-written cheat sheet.
Please, turn off your cellphone and put it away. Any type of cheating will be
reported to the Office of the Dean of Students. You have 1 hour and 15
minutes to finish the exam.

Good luck!

1. Four cards are randomly chosen from a deck of 52 cards. What is the
probability that the person gets one Queen and three Kings?
(a)

4 C3
52 C4

(b)

(4 C 3 ) 2
52 C4

(c)

4 C1
52 C4

(***)

(d) none of the above

2. Two cards are drawn at random from a regular deck of cards. What is the
probability of receiving in order a spade and a heart?
(a)
(b)
(c)

132
52 P2

(***)

52 C2
52 P2

132
52 C2

(d) none of the above

3. Suppose that the outcome space is = {a, b, c, 1, 5, 9, d}. Which of the
following is a partition of ?
(a) {a, 1, 9}, {2, c, d}, {b, 5}

(b) {a, b, c}, {c, 1, 5}, {5, 9, d}

(c) {a, b, c, d}, {1, 5}

(d) none of the above (***)

Questions 46 are based on the following information:
Events A1 and A2 form a partition of . Suppose that P (B A1 ) = 0.3,

P (B|Ac1 ) = 0.5 and P (A2 ) = 0.4.

4. What is P (A1 )?
(a) 0.3
(b) 0.6 (***)
(c) 0.8
(d) none of the above

5. What is P (B)?
(a) not enough information
(b) 0.3
(c) 0.5 (***)
(d) none of the above
6. Which events are pairwise independent?
(i) A1 and B
(ii) A2 and B
(iii) A1 and A2
(a) all of them
(b) (i) and (ii) (***)
(c) (i)
(d) none of them
7. Two fair coins are tossed. Event A denotes that the first coin is H, event
B is that the second coin is H, and event C is that there is exactly one
H. Which of the following is true?
(i) A, B and C are mutually independent
(ii) A
B
(iii) A
C and B
C
(a) (i), (ii), (iii)
(b) only (ii) and (iii) (***)
(c) only (iii)
(d) only (ii)

Questions 812 are based on the following information:

Widgets are manufactured in three factories: A, B and C. The proportion
of defective widgets for each factory is the following: 2% in A, 5% in B
and 10% in C. Factory A produces 50% of all widgets, B produces 30%
of all widgets, and C produces 20%.
8. What is the proportion of defective widgets in the total number of widgets?
(a) 4.5% (***)
(b) 9%
(c) 17%
(d) none of the above
9. A customer complains that her widget is defective. What is the probability
that it was produced in factory C?
(a) 0.10
(b) 0.20
(c) 0.44 (***)
(d) none of the above
10. Now suppose that the manager decides to reduce the production and stops
using factory C, thus, only factories A and B operate. What is the probability that a random widget is produced in factory A?
(a) 0.5
(b) 0.625 (***)
(c) 0.8
(d) none of the above
11. A randomly chosen widget is defective. Given that only factories A and B
are producing widgets, what is the proportion of defective widgets now?
(a) 2.5%
(b) 3.1% (***)
(c) 7%
(d) none of the above
4

12. The manager finds a defective widget. What is the probability that it was
produced in factory A if only A and B produce all the widgets?
(a) 0.4 (***)
(b) 0.3
(c) 0.2
(d) none of the above
Questions 1321 are based on the following information:
Suppose that random variables X
Y and have the following cdfs:

0, if x < 2

0.5, if 2 x < 4
FX (x) =
c , if 4 x < 6

1, if x 6

0, if y < 0

1
FY (y) = 12
(y 2 + y), if 0 y 3

1, if y > 3

13. It is known that P (X = 6) = 2P (X = 4). What is the value of c1 ?

(a)

1
6

(b)

1
3

(c)

2
3

(***)

(d) none of the above

14. What is P (2 < X < 4)?
(a) 0 (***)
(b)

1
6

(c)

1
2

(d) none of the above

15. What is P (4 < X 2 36)?

(a)

1
2

(b)

2
3

(***)

(c) 1
(d) none of the above
16. What is EX?
(a)

7
3

(b)

29
3

(c) 12
(d) none of the above (***)
17. What is V (X)?
(a)

50
3

(b) 7
(c)

29
9

(***)

(d) none of the above

18. What is P (1 < Y < 2)?
(a)

6
12

(b)

7
18

(c)

23
64

(***)

(d) none of the above

19. What is pdf of Z = 2 ln Y ?
(a)

1
0.5z
12 (2e

(b)

1
12 (2z

(c)

1
z
24 (2e

+ 1)

+ 1)
+ e0.5z ) (***)

(d) none of the above

20. What is EY ?
(a)

41
24

(b)

189
144

(c)

15
24

(d) none of the above (***)

21. What is V (Y )?
(a) 0.61 (***)
(b) 1.83
(c) 4.125
(d) none of the above
Questions 2223 are based on the following information:
Suppose that X, Y and Z are independent and EX = 3, V (X) = 2,
EY = 0, EY 2 = 1, EZ = 0.5 and EZ 2 = 1.
22. What is E(3X 2 + 5Y Z 2 )?
(a) 27
(b) 32 (***)
(c) 37
(d) none of the above
23. What is V (3X + Y Z)?
(a) 19.75 (***)
(b) 18.25
(c) 6.25
(d) none of the above
24. Suppose that X U [0, 2]. What is P (min(X, X 2 ) < 1.21)?
(a) 0.43
(b) 0.55
(c) 0.61 (***)
(d) none of the above
7

25. Suppose that X exp(1). What is E(e2X )?

(a)

1
3

(b)

1
2

(***)

(c) 2
(d) none of the above
Questions 26 and 27 are based on the following information:
A student has to take 5 exams. Probability to pass each of them is 0.3
and passing each exam is independent on passing other exams. We are
interested in how many exams the student passes.
26. Which distribution should be used in order to describe this uncertain
situation?
(a) Bernoulli
(b) Uniform
(c) Poisson
(d) none of the above (***)
27. How many exams does the student pass in expectation?
(a) 1.5 (***)
(b) 2
(c) 3.5
(d) none of the above
28. Suppose that A
B, P (A) > 0 and P (B) > 0. What of the following is
FALSE?

(a) A and B are mutually independent

(b) P (A|B c ) = P (A)
(c) Ac
B

(d) A B = (***)

29. Suppose that A

B. Which of the following is true?
(i) P (A|B) = P (A|B c )
(ii) P (A|A B) = P (A)

(iii) P (A|A B) = P (B|A B)

(a) all of the above
(b) (i)
(c) (i) and (iii) (***)
(d) none of the above
30. Three fair coins are tossed in a row. What is the probability of exactly
two heads?
(a)

1
8

(b)

1
4

(c)

3
8

(***)

(d) none of the above