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20.1.
Introduction
The manufacturing sector grew at an average rate of 8 percent from the sixties to the
eighties, but fell to 3.9 percent during the nineties. This was mainly caused by reduction in
investment levels due to lack of continuity and consistency in policies. Political instability
law and order position in the major industrial centres, transport bottlenecks, as well as
unreliability and inadequate availability of power supply at affordable rates were additional
factors pulling down the sector.
The sector has shown impressive recovery recently and has grown at a compound
rate of 10.9 percent per annum during 2001 05, with Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM)
growing even faster (Fig 1). Political and macroeconomic stability, rationalisation of tariffs,
increase in investments, improved utilisation of productive capacity, and growth in demand
for manufactured products, resulting from higher exports and consumer financing have
been the major factors leading to this growth. Share of manufacturing in Pakistans GDP is
currently 18.2 percent, and production costs have come down because of higher volumes.
Fig 1
Manufacturing Share of GDP, and Growth in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM)
1 8 .2
20
15
10
14
2000
2 0 01
20 0 2
2 0 03
2 00 4
0
2004-05
15
7 .2
3 .5
2001-02
16
2002-03
17
1 5 .4
11
2003-04
Share of Manufacturing
in GDP
2000-01
18
LSM
Growth
Percent Share
19
2005
20.2.
Global Trends
A major global re-structuring is underway in manufacturing. This has taken the form
of re-location and shifting of manufacturing, design, and service activities from older
industrialized countries to developing countries where cost reduction can be affected
without compromising reliability. In some newly industrialised Asian countries, such
activities have generated major global players and conglomerates, who offer complete endto-end services in the supply chain, whether as manufacturers of piece parts and systems, or
providers of manufacturing related services.
The second major shift in world trade relates to the technological content of the
traded items, be they manufactured goods, or services; the share of resource based and low
technology goods is decreasing, that of medium technology such as automobiles is nearly
constant, while that with high technology content is increasing (Fig 2).
Fig 2
35
25
20
15
10
5
2004
2002
Hi-Tech
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
Medium Tech
1990
1988
1986
Low Tech
1984
1982
1980
Resource Based
1976
1978
trade
percent of world
30
Thirdly, the sheer scale and volume of manufacturing being undertaken in China
has produced a completely new paradigm in large scale manufacturing. China is slowly
turning into the worlds workshop and factory, with enormous appetite for raw materials
and energy resources. While the long term impact of this activity on the very nature of
competitiveness will be interesting, its short terms may be devastating to some economies.
Globalisation is throwing up different challenges for different countries and regions.
While many countries like Pakistan are welcoming re-location of manufacturing, the older
industrial powers are facing the threat of de-industrialisation. This has forced countries,
which would normally not be associated with government interventions and policies, to
now actively promote new Enterprise Plans to protect their manufacturing base.
20.3.
Objectives
Pakistan has to make important strategic choices to ensure sustainable growth in the
manufacturing sector in a rapidly changing and challenging international competitive
environment. This requires massive structural changes rather than a marginal change, a shift
in the production paradigm to technology and knowledge based industrialization, with a
focus on the quantitative and the qualitative growth of an integrated and competitive
industry in the private sector. The inefficiencies of import substitution must give way to an
export led strategy.
Over the next five-year period, Pakistan envisages an average annual growth rate of
11.3 percent in the manufacturing sector, with investments reaching Rs.1,485.0 billion. This
will be accompanied by diversification of the manufacturing sector, where the share of
knowledge and technology intensive engineering, electronics, pharmaceutical, chemical and
non-metallic mineral products, would be strengthened and enabled through fiscal and tariff
means as well as building of alliances with international partners.
Sectors and products with comparative advantage such as textiles, food and agroprocessing would similarly be fostered. These measures and policies are expected to raise
the share of manufacturing sector in the GDP from 18.2 percent in 2004-05 to 21.9 percent in
2009-10 in percentage terms, and from Rs 1073 billion to Rs 1835 billion in 2010 in absolute
terms. The share of large scale manufacturing would correspondingly rise from 12.5 percent
to 16.2 percent.
It is necessary to move out of the low skills equilibrium which traps both
individuals and employers in a low expectations and low productivity environment. A
focused policy thrust, supported by adequate resources, will be adopted for raising the
threshold levels of the technology and skills base which will result in better productivity and
quality. However, this need to be accompanied by diversification, as well as physical and
social infrastructure, standardization, and certification to match the growth requirements.
Pakistan is not regarded as business friendly country, even though it costs less to
start a business and run it than, say, India. Nevertheless, improvements are to be made as
regards the facilitation mechanism, reduction of procedures, intrusive inspection laws, and
co-ordination of policies at the federal and provincial levels.
The private sector is the key stakeholder in the growth strategy, and would receive
its due emphasis, while the role of public sector would be that of a catalyst and an efficient
regulator to ensure competitive market structure. The focus of the governments industrial
manufacturing policy will be on getting the policy making process right. Only in this way
can private and public sectors come together to solve problems in the production sector, and
hence formulate the tools and mechanisms needed to overcome constraints and exploit
opportunities.
20.4.
Issues
The manufacturing sector still revolves around the traditional low value added
industries, whose share in world trade is either declining (resource based and low
technology goods) or nearly constant (medium technology goods). An efficient, international
quality supply chain, which is so essential for local industry to flourish, is missing, partly
due to insufficient scale economies, and partly due to bundling of raw material, parts and
modules by the multinationals in their assembly oriented companies, which discourage a
local vendor industry.
A factor to be noted is the generally low investment in upgrading technology or
diversifying into emerging markets, products and processes. In 1998, Pakistan paid only US$
20 m in royalty and technical fees, compared with US$ 2.4 b for Malaysia, US$ 2.3 b for S.
Korea, US$ 200m for China and US$ 180 m for India.
Earlier, manufacturing had been hindered by anomalies in the tariff structure; raw
material was taxed more than finished goods. This has fortunately been rationalized in the
last few years making value addition more profitable than mere trading or smuggling, and
the impact is visible in several sectors of the industry. Other bottlenecks in meeting the
desired targets are:
20.5.
i)
Productivity Levels: A
serious
constraint
in
achieving
global
competitiveness has been the low productivity which is endemic to Pakistans
industrial sector. Without the development of a widely embedded skills base,
competence and ability to meet global trading challenges cannot be achieved.
ii)
Skills. Pakistan is facing both a skills shortage, and skills gap in key modern
technologies. This reduces optimum operation of plant and machinery.
iii)
Inadequate and Unreliable Power and Energy Supplies. This forces firms to
generate their own power which can tie up as much of 12 percent of the
capital while power outages are estimated to cost nearly 6 percent in terms of
annual production. Pakistan has been actually suppressing demand for quite
a long time; this factor in poor competitiveness ratings is duly recognized and
the Energy Security Plan for the next 25 years is expected to address it in a
comprehensive manner.
iv)
v)
vi)
Certification and Standards. While some progress has been made, many of
manufactured products still lack proper certification for quality and safety,
which hinders their wider acceptance locally as well as globally. This will be
addressed in the MTDF.
ii)
iii)
iv)
v)
industrial culture.
Firms that establish technical or vocational training
institutions will be eligible for an investment tax allowance of 100 percent for
a fixed period.
vi)
vii)
viii)
ix)
x)
xi)
xii)
Cost of doing Business: Even though various measures have helped reduce
the cost of doing business, there is still need for further reduction in the tax
rates, labour levies, utility prices, and generally to improve administrative,
labour, and fiscal policies to improve function and transparency.
xiii)
xiv)
Private Sector R&D: In the private sector, innovation and R&D would be
encouraged through incentives such as reduced tariffs on import of R&D
equipment and supplies, deduction of annual non-capital R&D expenditures
and human resource development costs from taxable income.
20.6.
Prominent Sub-sectors.
The leading sub sectors show a mix of promise and opportunity as well as certain
constraints.
Textiles and Garments.
This group holds the biggest share of manufacturing in the country as well as in
exports contributing 10.5 percent to GDP, 68 percent to exports and employing 38 percent of
all industrial workers in 2003-04.
In anticipation of potential opportunities for Pakistan's exports in the post-textiles
quota environment, and to move towards greater value addition, the sector has undergone a
major transformation with nearly US$ 4 billion invested since 2000 in new technologies and
machinery. Currently, the share of yarn and fabrics in textile exports has declined from 70
percent in the nineties to 30 percent in 2003, with made-ups taking the rest.
The economies of agglomeration and cluster effects are important factors in
capturing externalities and spillovers, and reducing costs of production. Four Textile Cities
and Two Garment Cities are planned to be set up during MTDF. These will be equipped
with quality testing laboratories, design centres, and warehousing facilities apart from
excellent communications and other infrastructure.
Other major constraints and challenges at present are:
i)
ii)
iii)
iv)
v)
vi)
vii)
Blended fabrics and garments or high performance wear materials are increasing
their share of world trade, A major challenge to textile and garments exports is appearing in
the form of non-tariff issues such as social and environmental compliance, which is being
resorted to by major importing regions such as the EU and USA. It would be necessary,
therefore, to reduce tariffs on high quality dyes and dyes not made in Pakistan. This would
assist meeting environmental barriers to exports.
Agro-Processing Industries.
The Agro-processing industries comprise food, beverages and tobacco industrial
groups accounting for 22.7 percent of total value added in the manufacturing sector, Food
industry accounts for 13.8 percent, beverages 1.6 percent and tobacco manufacturing for 7.4
percent of the manufacturing value added. Vegetable ghee and sugar accounts for 3/4th of
the value added in food manufacturing. The industries with prospects of high value
addition such as vegetable, fruit and fish processing and canning, cereal product and
confectionary form a very small proportion of the total food manufacturing. The major
issues of this sector include lack of standardization and certification, lack of innovation in
product development uneven standards and quality control and high cost of packaging and
inputs. Policy and strategy measures suggest an urgent need for improvement in product
quality and standard, development of new products through tax breaks and rationalization
of import duties on the inputs for new value added products and by-products.
Chemical Processing Industry:
Chemical industry contributes 21.2 percent to value added of Pakistans
manufacturing sector. It is capital-intensive and its share in employment is 8.9 percent.
Pharmaceuticals, fertilizers, synthetic resins and petroleum refining and products constitute
bulk of the sectors value added. The significance of the chemical industry may be gauged
from the fact that the size of the global chemical market is $1.8 trillion and the trade volume
is US$ 600 billion and over the last two decades it has grown at a rate of 1.5 times the world
GDP growth rate. The industry in the Asia Pacific region has grown faster than the global
chemical industry and adds $ 30 billion worth of output every year. As much as 45 percent
of the total chemical products produced in the region are bulk organic chemicals, which also
forms a major component in the export basket from the region. This region is fast emerging
as a key player in global chemicals business and commands 30 percent share of global
chemical market.
Petrochemical and chemical products constitute approximately 40 percent of total
imports of the country. Pakistan has no facilities to produce basic petrochemicals like
Ethylene, Propylene, Butadiene, etc. and they are being imported in bulk
The total production of chemicals in Pakistan is around $ 3 billion but it can increase
rapidly provided a petrochemical complex based around Naphtha and hydro-cracker is set
up. This will provide raw materials for plastic detergents, dyes, paints, and varnishes and
pesticides. The major issues of the chemical sector include the non availability and the high
cost of inputs and utilities, obsolete technology base, limited R&D & quality control,
environmental problems and high cost of investment
Engineering Goods
The engineering industry accounts for 14.8 percent of value added and comprise
basic metals (4.3 percent), metal products (1.2 percent), machinery (1.1 percent) electrical
machinery (3.3 percent), transport equipment (4.7 percent) and measuring instruments (0.2
percent). It has forward and backward strong linkages and as such can play a crucial role in
the growth process. The share of engineering goods imports is 31.2 percent of Pakistans
total imports. The Korean and Malaysian economies have built their foundations on the
engineering industry; both Korea and Malaysia had a large percentage of their exports
concentrated in engineering goods. Share of engineering goods in Pakistans exports is only
4 percent compare to Korea (55 percent) in Malaysia (46 percent). Studies suggests a
requirement of US$ 10 to 12 billion investment to raise the engineering sector exports from
its present level of 4 percent to 12 percent with the next ten years. The exports of engineering
items would increase eight times from $ 270 million to US $ 2.13 billion by 2010 besides
meeting the growing domestic consumption of engineering goods.
The auto industry is a medium technology industry presently catering mainly to the
domestic market, with 44 units engaged in assembling, supported by over 850 tier-I vendors
and around 1200 tier-II vendors engaged in manufacturing auto parts. Around $ 300 million
has been invested by the OEMs & vendors during the last 3 years with another $ 390 million
planned during 2004-06 to cater to increasing demand. Local production capacities has built
up significantly leading to higher indigenization levels and a sharp increase in exports of
auto parts to over US$ 30 million in 2004.
The major threat to the sector lies in inconsistent policy framework which can lead to
distortion in duty structures and reduction of investment in long term projects.
Electronics
The Electronics industry is one of the worlds fastest growing industries and a key
enabler of growth and innovation, underpinning many important industries including
automotive, information and communication technologies (ICT), consumer and household
goods, defense, biomedical applications and other scientific equipment and devices. Its share
of world trade was the largest of any sub-sector, being nearly one quarter, or US $1.5 trillion,
in 2004. It is ideally suited to the demands of 21st century economies, with least requirement
for capital, space and electric power. It is also relatively clean environmentally compared
with other industries and employs a large proportion of women and graduates. Electronics
was also a major engine of growth in the economies of the East Asian Tigers.
Earlier, the nascent Pakistani industry had been nearly destroyed between the
smuggler and the tariff structure, since the latter favoured finished goods over raw material.
With rationalisation of tariffs, and liberal consumer financing, the electronics industry has
grown rapidly in recent years, with nearly one million TV sets, 300,000 PCs, and a quarter
million DVD units produced in the country in 2004. Several local brand names have
appeared (only 60,000 TV sets were produced in 2000)
The larger volumes of production have resulted in the development of a vibrant
vendor industry, with major opportunities in sub assemblies and modules.
There is enormous scope for indigenous development and manufacturing of
switching equipment, computers, modems and routers, broad-band Internet services. It is
planned to help develop an international quality indigenous supply chain, and to raise the
share of electronics in the output of the manufacturing sector from under 3 percent at
present to 10 percent in 2010 and to 20 percent in 2020.
20.7.
While the ISO 9000 and 14000 certification process has been going on for several
years,, the use of Urdu on the shop floor and in Quality Manuals can go a long way in
spreading productivity and quality in industry.
An essential aspect of technological up-gradation requires focus on engineering
design, and modeling for quality & reliability. Greater use of computerization in businesses,
CAD/CAM, industrial instrumentation and controls, are in high demand to warrant
addition of these subjects in Universities and becoming a regular feature of their Business
Units.
With a view to promoting R&D activities, government will expand universityindustry linkages, provide income tax relief on R&D expenditures; income tax exemption on
donations; weighted tax deductions for sponsored research programmes; accelerated
depreciation on local technology-based plant and machinery; customs duty exemptions for
R&D institutions; and national awards for outstanding R&D achievements and
commercialization.
New industrial sites and clusters that are fully serviced with world-class quality of
infrastructure, telecommunication services and utilities, will be developed to introduce the
culture of reduce, reuse, and recycle. Common Facility Centers (CFCs) have been
established in the country in several sectors to provide access to new processes and
technologies and as a trigger for further innovation.
It is estimated that Pakistan could save up to 16.5 percent of the cost of exports by
improving its trade and transport logistics systems. An additional all-weather road length of
80 thousand kilometres will need to be developed with focus on inter-connecting roads to
the less-privileged rural areas to accomplish the objective of industrial development.
Major investment will be required to strengthen railways transportation capacity
through quantitative and qualitative improvement in rolling stock, revamping of signaling
and modernization of communication systems. Involvement of private sector, even without
complete privatization, has potential for improving efficiency and investment in railways.
Efficiency of port operations in Pakistan has remained low. According to a study, the
freight handling costs at the ports in Karachi and Qasim are 20 percent more expensive
compared with modern regional ports, because of excessive cargo handling charges and low
labour productivity. In an effort to cut the port handling charges and make them more
competitive, the system will need to be modernized and procedures streamlined and
simplified.
20.8.
Over the next five years period, Pakistan envisions to have an average annual growth
rate of LSM to be 13.4 percent with an investment of Rs. 1485.0 billion in the manufacturing
industry. An amount of Rs 8.0 billion will be spent through Federal PSDP for skill
development, productivity improvement, together with capacity for R&D, quality
standards, and accreditation. The share of manufacturing sector is expected to rise from 18.2
percent in 2004-05 to 21.9 percent in 2009-10. The corresponding changes in the various
prominent sub-groups are at Annex 2
Annex I
Pioneering Industries
Manufacturing
1
Industrial
Plants/Processes
Special alloys
Textiles
Carbon fibers
Graphics
Pharmaceutical Chemicals
VLSI/Chips
Dyes
Pesticides
3
4
Design
Biotechnology
Light Engg
Pressure Vessels
Traction Equipment
Industrial Automation
Machinery
Electro-medical Devices
Automotive Electronics
Multilayer PCBs
Communications
(Fiber/electronic
interfaces, Cell phones,
Modems, )
Services
Food Preservation
Certified Seeds
Industrial Material
Testing &
Certification
Digital Archiving
Call centres
Annex II
Changes in the Shares in the Manufacturing Output (Percentages)
Industrial Group
1999-2000
2009-10
Food industries
13.8
10.9
Beverages
1.6
1.3
Tobacco manufacturing
7.4
5.2
26.5
24.8
1.3
1.2
1.5
1.5
Chemicals
21.2
23.4
7.5
7.4
Engineering products
14.8
19.6
Others
4.4
4.7