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1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera

PC-1 Proforma

Ministry of Energy and Power


Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

DESIGN, SUPPLY, ERECTION, TESTING &


COMMISSIONING
OF 1000-2000 MW (GROSS) RE-GASIFIED LIQUIFIED
NATURAL
GAS (PLNG) BASED COMBINED CYCLE POWER PLANT
AT
HAVELI BAHADUR SHAH, DISTRICT JHANG PAKISTAN

Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa


Energy and Power
PC-1
(Estimated Cost PKR 84,823.14 million)
March, 2015

Ministry Energy and Power Government of Khyber


Pakhtunkhwa
Cleared by Pre-CDWP on 27th Mach, 2015
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1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

National Engineering Services Pakistan (Pvt)


Ltd. (NESPAK)
1-C, Block-N, Model Town Extension, Lahore 54700, Pakistan Phone: 92-42-99090000, Fax: 9242-99231950,
Email: nespakpm@nexlinx.net.pk

Table of Contents
1. Name of project............................................................................. 6
2. Location........................................................................................6
3. Authorities Responsible:................................................................6
4. Plan Provision...............................................................................7
5. Project Objectives:.......................................................................7
6. Description and justification of project (enclose feasibility study
for projects costing (Rs.300 million and above).................................9
6.1. Description of the project......................................................10
6.2. Existing facilities in the area..................................................12
6.3. Justification for establishment of project...............................12
6.4. Technical parameters i.e. input and output of the project and
technological aspects of the project.............................................12
6.7 Information on sources and availability of cooling water and
fuel, calorific value, heat rate and disposal of ash and effluents...22
7 Capital Cost Estimate...................................................................25
7.4. Year- Wise /Component Wise Financial Phasing......................26
8. Annual operating Cost based on proposed capacity utilization and
source of financing:......................................................................... 26
9. Demand and supply analysis.....................................................28
9.1 Existing capacity of services and supply/ demand..................28
9.2 Project demand for 10 years and supply-demand gap............29
9.3 Capacity of the projects being implemented in / private sector
..................................................................................................... 30
9.4 Designed capacity and output of the proposed project...........31
10: Financial Plan............................................................................31
11: Benefits of

the Project And Analysis.......................................31

11.4 Environmental Impact assessment.......................................32


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1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

11.5 Financial Analysis..................................................................33


11.6 Economic Analysis................................................................33
11.7 Employment Analysis............................................................33
11.8 Sensitivity analysis...............................................................33
12 a) Implementation schedule.......................................................34
12 b) Result based monitoring (RBM) Indicators..............................34
13. Management structure and manpower requirement.................34
13.1. Administrative arrangement for implementation of project. 35
13.2. Manpower Requirements.....................................................35
13.3. Job description qualification, experience, age and salary of
each post...................................................................................... 35
15. Certified that the Project proposal has been prepared on the
Basis of instruction provided by the Planning Commission for the
Preparation of Pc-1 for Infrastructure Sector Project........................36
ANNUEXURES
I. Location Map
II. Plant Conceptual Layout
III. Project Capital Cost Estimate
IV. SNGPL Letter for Gas Availability
V. Letter of Incorporation of the Companies
VI. Detail of Economic Analysis

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1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

List of Abbreviations
Acronyms

Definitions

CBM:
COD:
CCPP:
CPPCL
DISCOs:
DSCR:
EPC:
FEC:
GENCO:
GHCL:
HSD:
HP:
HHV:
IFC:
IDC:
IRR:
kJ/kg
KIBOR:
LP:
LHV:
LIBOR:
MCC:
MMCFD:
MoW&P:
NPV:
NEPRA:
NPPMCL:

Cubic Meter
Commercial Operation Date
Combined Cycle Power Plant
Chenab Power Park Company Limited
Distribution Companies
Debt Services Coverage Ratio
Engineering Procurement & Construction
Foreign Exchange Component
Generation Companies
Generation Holding Company Limited
High Speed Diesel
High pressure
Higher Heating Value
International Finance Corporation
Insurance During Construction
Internal Rate of Return
Kilo Joules/ Kilogram
Karachi Inter Bank Offer Rate
Low Pressure
Low Heating Value
London Inter-Bank Offer Rate
Motor Control Center
Million Cubic Feet per Day
Ministry of Water and Power
Net Present Value
National Electric Power Regularity Authority
National Power Park Management Company Limited
Nitrogenous
Nitrogenous
National Transmission and Dispatch Company
Plant Factor
Re-gasified Liquefied Natural Gas
Ravi Power Park Company Limited
Residual Fuel Oil
Reverse Osmosis
Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Limited
Oxides of Sulfur
Sulfur Dioxide
Tons per Day

NOx:
NTDC:
PLF:
R-LNG
RPPCL:
RFO:
RO:
SNGPL:
SOx:
SO2:
TPD:

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1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

TDH:
WTP:

Ton per Hour


Water Treatment Plant

UNITS
Btu:
Btu/kg:
Kg/kWh:
Kg:
kWh:
kV:
kJ/kg:
m:
MW:
m/h:
m/s:
Sq. Ft:
t/day:
t/hr.:
V:

British Thermal Unit


British Thermal Unit per Kilogram
Kilogram per Kilo Watt Hour
Kilo Gram
Kilo watt Hour
Kilo Volt
Kilo Joules/Kilograms
Meter
Megawatt
Cubic meter per Hour
Meter per Second
Square Feet
Tons per Day
Tons per Hour
Voltage

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1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN
PLANNING COMMISSION
PC-1 FORM
(INFRASTRUCTURE SECTORS)
1. Name of
project
2. Location
3. Authorities
Responsible:
i. Sponsoring
ii. Execution

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Gas Power Plant at


Kheshgi District Nowshera.
The site is located at kheshgi District Nowshera

Ministry of Energy and Power, Government of Khyber


Pakhtunkhawa
Kheshgi Energy and power Company limited (KEPCL) under
the umbrella of

EXECUTION MOD
GoP/MOWP

NPPMCL

Gas Supplier

OGRA

02.5PVs

Plant Management

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1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

iii. Operation &


maintenance

iv. Concerned federal


ministry
4. Plan Provision
I.If the project is included
in the medium
term/five year plan,
specify actual
allocation
II. If the project is not
included
in
the
current plan, what
warrants its inclusion
and how is it now
proposed
to
be
accommodated

III. If the project is proposed


to be financed out of
block provision,
indicate,
IV. Provision in the current
year PSDP/ADP
5. Project Objectives:
I. The Objective of the
sector/sub sector,
objective of the
project and linkage
between the
proposed project and

Based on successful experience of operating and


maintaining several Independent Power Producers
(IPPs), CPPCL will outsource the O&M of the power
plant for fifteen (15) years from Commercial
Operation Date (COD) through a separate contract.
Ministry of Water and power, Government of Pakistan

The project is not included in the medium term / five


year plan

The acute energy shortage in the country demand


fast track addition of generation capacity within
shortest possible time. Installation of high efficiency
CCPPs based on R-LNG which can be implemented
within 24 months is the shortest solution to address
the power crises under the given circumstances. As
per the decision of Cabinet Committee on Energy
(CCOE) dated February 12, 2015, (Reference
Government
of
Pakistan,
Cabinet
Division
Memorandum No. F 14/3/20`15), funding for this
project provided through PSDP to avoid excessive
loaning. Accordingly appropriate allocation will be
required to be made in PSDP 2014-15, 2015-16 and
2016-17 and 2017-18.

Not Applicable
Appropriate allocations will be required to be made
in PSDP 2014-15. 2015-16, 2016-17, and 2017-18.
The key objective of the project is follows:
The project is aimed to provide additional power to
the National Grid by using R-LNG in view of the
higher price of the other resources like RFO, HSD etc.
for production of affordable electric power and to
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1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


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sectoral objective.

help narrowing the gap in the supply and demand.


The main objective of the Power Generation Policy of
Government of Pakistan are:
To provided adequate power generation capacity
at the least cost.
To encourage and ensure exploitation of imported
LNG for development of thermal power generation
projects in the country.
To encourage the local engineering industry to
form joint ventures with the foreign companies for
the participation in the development
of the power generation projects.
To protect the environment.
The objectives of the project are as under
To achieve energy generation self-sufficiency in
order to support economic growth and reduce
poverty.
To provide affordable electricity to the main load
centers i.e Lahore and Faisalabad through
National Grid.
To reduce the load shedding in the country.
To provide energy security to the country.
Linkage Between proposed project and sectroial
objectives.

Serious infrastructure shortages have emerged


especially in energy, water and communication,
which have raised the cost of doing business,
impeded growth and added to peoples hardship.
The gap between present demand and supply
together with future rise in demand clearly calls
for measure to ensure the continuity of electric
supply to the industrial and domestic consumers
which are playing with pivotal role in countrys
economic uplift. Thus there is a need to install
power plants on war footing basis. There for
MoW&P has planned to install accordingly a 10001200 MW (Gross) power project to secure uninterrupted power at an affordable prices to the
consumers.

II. In case of revised


projects, indicate
objective of the
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1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

project if different
from original PC-1

Not Applicable

6. Description and
justification of
project (enclose
feasibility study
for projects
costing (Rs.300
million and
above)

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PC-1 Proforma

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The CCPP project near Kheshgi Distract Nowshera has


been planned operate on imported LNG which will be
Re-gasified
at the
LNG
terminal
in Karachi.
The gas for
1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined
Cycle
Power
Plant
at Kheshgi
Nowshera
the project will supplied by Sui Northern Gas pipeline
PC-1 Proforma
Company limited (SNGPL)

4.1.

Description of
the project

The objective of power plants is to supply uninterrupted


power supply to all consumers. This plant concept fulfils
the requirement to balance reliable power supply, and
economic operation.
The CCPP is based on a modern highly efficient and well
proven combined gas turbine technology.

A Simplified Conceptual Diagram of Combined Cycle


Power Plant.
NO

DISCRIBTION

Address of the site


with coordinates

Name of nearest
Canal+Canals
Discharge
Type of Canal
Distance of site from
nearest city

3
4

DATA
Kheshgi Distract
Nowshera
N 34 02 45.9
E 71 56 30.1
Kabul River

17 km from
Nowshera city.

NO

DISCRIPTION

DATA

Ambient temprature
( based on

340

EXPECT
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RANGE
50 to
480

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

INTERCONNECTION SHEMES FOR R-LNG BASED POWER


PROJECTS
KPK

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6.1.

Existing
facilities in the
area

The infrastructure facilities required for the project are


already available at site. The land, road link, communication
and community services exist at Kheshgi Distract Nowshera.

6.2.

Justification for
establishment
of project

The installed capacity of power plants in Pakistan is more


than 20,000 MW but dependable is for less on account of derating capacity of thermal power plants and abnormal
variation in hydrology for hydro generation. Currently there
is a peak power shortage of about 5000-6000 MW. The
growth in the electric energy is expected to increase for
many years to come, and by 2030 total demand is expected
to increase to 98000 MW.
The construction of any mega hydropower project, even if
initiated now will take 10 years to come in to operation. This
situation emphasizes the need for speedy installation of
power generation facilities at affordable price and
continuous supply to the industrial sector.
Based on the present power demand and evaluating power
demand forecast in the country, the proposed power plant of
1000-1200 MW will help to fill in the gap between power
demand and supply from 3rd quarter of 2017 when it would
be commissioned and, therefore, the project is justified

6.3.

Technical
parameters i.e.
input and
output of the
project and
technological
aspects of the
project.

No.
1.

2.
3.

4.

Basic fuel

5.

Back-up fuel

6.

Minimum Net Efficiency (LHV) in

DESCRIPTION
Combined Cycle power
plant at Kheshgi
Distract Nowshera
Type of Gas turbines
Preferred configuration

DATA
1000-1200
MW
(Gross)-ISO
Heavy duty

However final
configuration will be
chosen by
The EPC contractor

natural gas (RLNG)


None
57%-ISO

Combined cycle operation


7.

Single cycle mode operation required,

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1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

With bypass stacks/damper behind GTs


8.

Indoor Installation

9.

Once-through cooling system with water

From adjacent canal plus wet/dry cooling


Tower for 1 month (January) outage
Period of canal per year
10.

The plant shall be complete in all respect

with auxiliaries and Balance of plant


(BoP) and all other facilities required
11.

Potentially, evaporate cooling for GT air intakes

12.

Spare parts for 2 years operation

13.

LTSA from GT-OEM for 48,000 OH (6 Years)

14.

ALS 500 kV switchyard in 1 breaker type

The combined cycle power plant utilizing large sized heavy duty gas turbines
have several advantages and are known for their reliable long term trouble free
operation, high thermal efficiency (over 57%) and are the best choice for base
load operation. The application of large gas turbines in CCPPs results in lowest
possible cost per KWH on NPV basis for 25 year life-time.

The design shall provide maximum levels of reliability and availability,


convenience of operation and maintenance, neat and orderly arrangements,
which shall take into account the functional requirements of various systems
and pleasing physical appearance of the completed power station. The
combined cycle plant shall be designed for base load operation.

6.4 Detail of civil Works, equipment, Machinery and other physical Facilities required for
the project.

A. Civil Works

Civil works for GT foundations


Civil works for HRSG foundations
Civil works for ST turbine foundations
Power house building including workshops, labs and warehouse
Cooling water intake house
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1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


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B.

Cooling tower
Water treatment plant, pre-treatment plant, effluent treatment plant
storage tanks
Transformer yard
500 kV switchyard
Plant buildings pump houses and storage sheds
Administration building, security office, parking shed
Pipe rack, cable rack and pipe sleepers
Green belt development
General civil works including residential buildings
Equipment and Machinery

Gas Turbine, Steam Turbine, Generators and Balance of plant:

C.

Heavy Duty Gas Turbines, Generators and Auxiliaries


Heat Recovery Steam Generator with ancillaries
Steam Turbines, generator and ancillaries
Main step up Transformers
Main Auxiliary Transformers
Station Service Transformers
MV/LV Unit & Station Auxiliaries Power Supply System
Protection and control panels
Distributed control system (DCS)
Emergency Diesel Generator
Cooling water systems
Cooling water pump house
Water Treatment Plant
Clarifier plant
Fire Fighting Pump House
Demineralised Water Storage Tank
Clarified Water Storage Tanks
Fire Fighting Water Tanks
Workshops
Spare Parts Store
Fuel Oil Storage Tanks
Gas Booster Compressor (s)
Other Physical Facilities

SCADA System
Telecommunication System including fiber optic cable and satellite links
Security system for all installations
Fire and gas detection and alarm system
Central control room
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1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

D.

Control equipment room


Relay room
Battery room interconnection arrangements
Labs
Warehouse
Residential / Non Residential Buildings
Transportation
Scope of works

The scope of work for the plant comprises but shall not be limited to, the
complete engineering ,supply of drawings, diagrams and other required
information, construction, manufacture, shop testing, packing and marking,
delivery, insurance, transport from shop to site , loading and unloading, storing
at site, checking on completeness, erection, connection to existing equipment
and facilities, functional testing, start-up, commissioning, optimization,
reliability testing, acceptance testing, handing over in satisfactory condition for
commercial operation, training of operation and maintenance personnel during
the warrantee period until acceptance of the complete work of the facility with
auxiliaries, ancillaries and appurtenances so that the plants are completely
ready for commercial operation.
This include as a minimum:

Civil work as required for the project,


Gas turbines and generators
Steam turbines with water cooled condenser,
Once through cooling system fed from canal water and a cooling tower for
backup when canal water is not available during at least one month every
year,
Gas booster compressor station,
Step-up transformer,
Unit and station transformer
Heat recovery steam generators.
Primary fuel system (Re-liquefied Liquid Natural Gas(RLNG)),
Balance of plant equipment ,
Auxiliary systems
Electrical systems
Control and instrumentation systems,
Fire alarm, protection system, and firefighting equipment
Field equipment
Continuous emission monitoring system(CEMS),
Metering and quality monitoring equipment (power and fuel)
Communication facilities,
Closed circuit television (CCTV)system,
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1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


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A GPS clock synchronized time system for the common time basis of all
the equipment.
The cost of the above equipment /work is summarized in the project
capital cost estimate include in Annexure III.

6.4.

Governance issues of the sector and Strategy to resolve them


i. Following are the major issues and strategy to resolve them:
ii. Environment impact- This will require mitigation measure to ensure
the pollution free environment. In this regard, the mitigation
measures have been suggested trough environment within NEQs.
iii. Availability of financial resources; Unforeseen factors being first time
activity including land acquisition;

6.5.

DESCRIPTIONOF MAJOR EQUIPMENT AND STRUCTURE

A brief description of major equipment and plant layout id mentioned


hereunder:
VI.6.1 Gas Turbines and Auxiliaries
The gas turbine generator unit shall be of the indoor type for installation in a
machine hall suitable for operating suitable for operation under severe
tropical conditions with extremely high air temperature, humid and highly
corrosive atmosphere.
The unit shall be designed for base load operation with peak load capabilities
to manufacturer practice burning natural gas as main fuel.
Heavy duty gas turbines preferably in a 2xGT + 2Xhrsg + 1xST combined
cycle power plant configuration with a minimum CCPP thermal efficiency of
57% are envisaged.

The GTs will be designed to fire the natural gas having the following analysis.
component
*composition
[mole-%]
Methane (C1)
88.852
Ethane (C2)
5.148
Propane (C3)
0.257
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1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


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Butane and heavier (C4+)


Nitrogen (N2)
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

0.183
4.815
0.745

* Source : SNGPL
6.6.2 Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSGs)
Fully identical gas turbines are to be equipped with heat recovery steam
generators (HRSG) of the triple pressure type, matching with the heat energy
of exhaust gases from gas turbines. The main features of the HRSG are
described below:
Unfired
Triple pressure reheat system
Horizontal/vertical exhaust gas path
Preferably natural circulation principle
Outdoor installation
The individual major items of which are as follows:

HRSG pressure parts (Drums, Economizers, Evaporators, super heaters,


Re heaters etc).
Steam and Feed water piping system
HP Circulating pumps (in case of forced circulation system)
IP Circulating pumps(in case of forced circulation system)
LP Circulating pumps(in case of forced circulation system)
Safety Valves and Silencers
HRSG and External piping
Steam and Feedwater values
Drains and Vents
Blow Down Equipment
HRSG Steel Structure, Platform, Galleries, Stairs and Lift
Heat Exchanger Chamber
Exhaust system (Ducts, Expansion, Joints, Silencer, Chimney)
Thermal Insulation and Cladding
Control and Monitoring Equipment
For the CCPPs utilizing large heavy duty GTs (300MW capacity), the triple
pressure type HRSGs are an industry standard which only can ensure the
combined cycle efficiencies reaching 60 % and beyond.
6.6.3 Steam turbine (ST) and Auxiliaries
The steam turbine shall be of a standard proven with triple pressure. It shall
be designed for 200,000 operating hours under base load conditions.
Sliding pressure operation with fixed minimum inlet pressure at part load is
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1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


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envisaged.
The ST condenser shall be of the two pass type with divided water box and
support on springs.
The steam turbine shall be equipped with a bypass steam reducing stations
dumping steam into the turbine condenser in case of a turbine, generator or
electrical system trip.
The steam turbo set shall be supported by a turbine generator foundation and
pedestal preferable with springs installed on top of the columns.

6.6.4 Generator and Excitation System


The Generator will be capable of continuous safe operation at rated output
and power factor under any of the following conditions for system
compatibility.

Terminal voltage variation of +/- 5% of the rated value.


Frequency variation within 47.5 to 51.5 Hz.
Absolute sum of combined voltage & frequency variation of not beyond
5%.
Additionally, the generators must comply with the NEPRA Grid Code.
The Generator winding will be star connected with the phase & neutral
terminals brought out for connection to isolated phase duct. The star neutral
point will be grounded through a neutral grounding transformer with a resister
in the secondary circuit. The Generator will generally comply with the
requirements specified in IEC 60034.
6.6.5 500Kv Substation
For the power evacuation from the CCPP, an associated 500 kV Switchyard
with its bays arranged in breaker and a half scheme is foreseen. A state of the
art Substation Automation System (SAS) is envisaged for control, protection
and monitoring purpose.
6.6.6 Distributed Control System
The CCPP will be equipped with a state-of-Art Distributed Control System(DCS)
6.6.7 Physical Facilities
The plant layout will be optimally developed for the plant facilities within 100
acres of land at site.
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S.NO

Non- Qty
Covd Total Rates Cost
Resid (Nos Area Area (sq
(M
1000-2000
MW
(Gross)
Combined
Cycle
Power
Plant
ential )
(sq
(sq
ft)
Rs) at Kheshgi Nowshera
PC-1 Proforma
Buildi
ft)
ft)
Rs
ngs is attached at Annexure-II
Plant layout
1
Ware
1
10000 10000 200 20.0
house
0
0
6.6.8 Residential Building
2
Mechani 1
8000
8000
200 16.0
cal
Work
0 has
0 been provided for construction
An estimated amount of Rs 121.24 million
Shop
of residential
building as detailed below.
3
Electrical 1
3000
3000
200 6.00
Worksho
0
p
S.N Description Qty
Cover Total
Rate/sq Total
4 o Industrial 1
2000 ed 2000area 200
.ft 4.00 (Rs
lab
0
area
(sq.ft) (Rs)
in
5
Chemical 1
2000 (sq.ft)
2000
200 4.00 Milli
Lab
0
on)
6 1 Dispensa
10.0 25.0
Category-II1 5 5000 25005000
1250 200
2000
ry
0
0
0
0
Category-III
2000
7 2 Security
1 151000 150010002250 200
2.00 45.0
0
0
0
3
Category-IV
15
1000
1500 2000
Sub62.0 30.0
0
0
Total
0
4
Category-V 15
606 Add9090
2000
20% for
12.4 18.1
8
electrification & sanitation etc
Sub-total
50
Total74. 101.
Grand Total
4.7 18
20% for Electrification, water supply & sanitation
20.2
4
etc.
4
Grand Total USD Million 0.7
121.
4
Grand Total

Grand

42
1.20

Total USD Million


The residential building will house the permanent staff and the O&M personnel who
will be stationed at the power plant around the clock.
6.6.9 Non-Residential Buildings
An estimated amount of Rs 74.4 million has been provided for Non-Residential
buildings as follows:

6.6.10 Transport An estimated amount of Rs. 87.55 million has been


provided for the purchase and O&M of the following vehicles:

S.N
O

Vehicles

Qty Rate
PKR(Milli

Cost
PKR(Millio
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1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

on)

n)

For Consultant (Project


Execution)
1

Car,4door1300cc

2.0
0

1.90

3.8

4 wheel drive aircondition double


pickups

2.0
0

3.55

7.10

Jeeb 4 wheel
drive 1300 c.c or
greater capacity

2.0
0

2.30

4.6

Sub Total 15.50

For Construction Supervision


1

Car,4door1300cc

2.0
0

1.90

3.60

4 wheel drive air


condition

1.0
0

3.55

3.55

1.0
0

2.30

2.30

Double chain
picksups
3

Jeeb 4 wheel
drive 1300 c.c or
greater engine
capacity

Sub Total 9.45


For O& M of plant
1

Car, 4door 1300


cc

2.0
0

1.90 3.60

Bus

2.0
0

5.20 10.40

Mini Truck

2.0
0

4.00 8.00

Jeeps 4 wheel
driver 1300 cc or
greater engine

2.0
0

2.30 4.60

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1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

capacity
5

Suzuki vans4.00

4.0
0

1.00 4.00

Firefighting
Vehicles

2.0
0

6.00 12.00

Mobil crane 50
ton capacity

1.0
0

15.00 15.00

Ambulance

1.0
0

5.00 5.00
Sub Total 62.60
Grand Total 87.55

Grand Total USD Million 0.87

Vehicles to be purchased for the Consultants and Construction Supervision will


be transferred for O&M of the project after completion.
6.7 Information on sources and availability of cooling water and fuel, calorific
value, heat rate and disposal of ash and effluents
6.7.1 Source and availability of cooling water
The water requirement for the project will be about 900 ft3/s (900 cusec). This
required quantity of raw water will be taken from TS link Canal with maximum
discharge of 11500 Cusec which is running parallel to the project site. The
cooling system will be once through type which means that after pass through
the turbine condenser, the water will be returned to the canal. The allocation of
water has been consented by the irrigation Department. The underground water
is also available for use as make up water. The deep wells also be installed at
the site. These deep wells will be used for the supply of makeup water during
the canal closure period.

The TS link Canal flows in Cusecs are shown in the table below.

Month

TS Link
22 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

Jan-12
FEB-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12

Max

Min

4627
5000
6000
8000
11000
11000
11500
10500
11500
6545
7300

0
0
1364
0
7500
9807
5000
1500
4951
1904
1364

The above table has been based on the daily discharge data of the Canal
provided by the Irrigation Department, Government of Punjab. The Irrigation
Department has verbally confirmed the provision of cooling water from the
canal. However, A formal agreement will be signed between the Irrigation
Department and the company at a later stage.
6.7.2 Fuel i.e. Gas Source, Quality, Quantity and Transportation
SNGPL Is Undertaking two Projects (i.e. Project 1 and Project 2) to receive 1.2
BCFD R-LNG gas. Under Project 1,400 mmSCFD gas shall be transported
downstream Sawan (Starting Point of SNGPL) by laying a 42 dia , 110.6 KM
Pipeline from Sawan to Qadirpur. Under Project 2, Up to 800 BFCD R-LNG supply
shall be transported downstream Sawan for which around 760 KM pipeline
infrastructure of 42-16 dia shall be laid by end June,2017 provided project
financing is arranged in time.
SNGPL will thus be able to supply 200 mmSCFD for the Nowshera Project if the
finance are arranged in time. This issue of the revenue requirements of SNGPL
and SSGC was addressed by the cabinet Committee on Energy (OCCOE) in its
meeting dated February 12, 2015 and is recorded in Government of Pakistan,
Cabinet Division Memorandum No F.14/3/2015-com dated February 16,2015case No. cc-15/3/2015.
AS SNGPL will not be able to supply the gas to Nowshera Project at the requisite
pressure of >40 Bars, a gas booster compressor station will be made part of the
scope of work of power plant EPC contract.
Reference Gas Composition provided by SNGPL.
S
N
o

COMPONENT

COMPOSTION
(Mole %)

Methane (c1)

Ethane(C2)

88.852
5.148
23 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

Propane (C3)

0.257

Butane and heavier


(C4+)

0.183

Nitrogen (N2)

4.815

Carbon Dioxide
(CO2)

0.745

6.7.3 Comparison/ Analysis of available technology and rationale / criteria for


selection of specified technology
Pakistan having abundance of hydro resources for power generation of more
than 45,000 mw and at present is not in a position to launch a mega hydro
project due to miscellaneous reason; lack of consensus among the provinces
and financial constraints in the exchequer. The constraints of any big dam even
if initiated now will take 10 years to come into operation. Renewable energy like
solar and wind are not only costly but cant meet the base load requirements of
the industry due to unreliable generation. Major countries in the world relay on
hydro coal and gas to meet the base load requirement. Therefore, the only
available option is use of fossils fuel (coal, gas and oil) for power generation to
meet energy shortage in short span of time. coal and natural gas are two
dominating fossil fuels for electricity generation worldwide .coal accounts for
more than 40%power generation worldwide while natural gas share is around
25%and accounts for about 6% of the total world electricity generation (reliance
is based on energy information administration-USA).
The electricity generation on natural gas is the best option in Pakistan. However
due to shortage of gas ,the imported LNG under the present scenario is the best
and most favorable option for power generation .cost of electricity generation
through R-LNG power plant is also much cheaper than imported oil. NEPRA is
already in the process of notifying the upfront tariff for R-LNG based power
plants that is reasonably favorable for attracting the investment.
6.7.4 Maintenance facilities
The contractor shall develop an in house facility for scheduled maintenance,
forced outage and emergency maintenance. Mechanical, electrical. I&C
workshops, chemical and industrial labs shall be developed too.
The tools &plants required for chemical laboratory, electrical and electronics
instruments for electrical laboratory and the work shop equipment and
accessories as required will be identified and will be supplied to the plant by
EPC contractor. The major T&P of the work shop is mechanical equipment listed
here under.

Universal grinding machine


24 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

Central lathe machine

Universal drilling machine

Milling machine

metal cutting hacksaw

thread cutting machine


electric welding sets

6.7.5 Transmission and distribution system


The 1000-1200 MW R-LNG based CCPPwill be interconnected to;

A 500 KV/DC T/LINE, APPROX.3 KM long, for IN /OUT of the existing


Muzaffargrh gatti 500 KV/s/c T/LINE at H.B.SHAH POWER PROJECT.

A 500 KV D/C T/LINE APPROX .25 KM LONG, FOR IN/OUT OF THE EXISTING
MULTAN GALTI 500 KV S/C T/LINE AT H.B SHAH POWER PLANT.

6.7.6 Load flow studies


LOAD FLOW STUDIED HAVE BEEN CONDUCTED BY NTDC / PLANNING FOR
OPTIMUM INTERCONNECTION SCHEME;HAVE CONFIRMED DISPERSING UP TO
1200 MW (GROSS)FROM POWER PLANT TO EXISTTING 500 KV SYSTEM.A GRID
INTERCONNECTION STUDY REPORT PREPARED BY PLANNING (POWER)
DEPARTEMENT OF NTDCL IS ATTACHED IN THE PRE FEASIBILITY STUDY REPORT
PROVIDED TO THE PLANNING COMMISSION
7 Capital Cost Estimate
The total project cost has been estimated at Eq.USD 839.83 Million i.e. PKR
84823.14 Million at reference exchange rate of 1 USD=101 PKR
The detail estimate project cost estimate is attached at Annexure-11
7.1 Date of Estimation of the project cost
The cost estimation has been prepared at the price level of March, 2015
7.2Basis of determining the capital cost
The rates for the estimate are based on in-house cost data for similar capacity
project in the sub-continent and compared with the budgetary price the land,
site development and civil cost estimate have based on the prevailing rates in
the region
7.3 Year Wise Estimation of Physical Activates

25 | P a g e

Years

Physical Activities

1000-2000 MW st(Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


1 Year
Pre-Qualification of Contractors
PC-1 Proforma
Power unit
Outpu
t
Rated
Capacity
Load Factor
No.of
months
in
commercial
operation
Gross
generation
Auxiliary
consumptio
n
Net sent
out
power

(201415)
Yr 1

MW

Tender Document Preparation


Invitation
of Bids
Yr
2
Yr 3
Yr 4
Yr 5
Submission of bid & bid Evaluation

Contract Award and Notice to Proceed


/
n

120 Handover
120 1200
site 1200 1200
0 Basic
0 Engineering
nd
2%
Year60% 60% 60% 60%
60%
Finalize Basic Engineering
(2015- 12
mont
12
12
12
Finalize Plant Layout 12
16)
hs

Detailed Engineering
Procurement
Civil Works
Supply
+Contract
Gwh
630.Mechanical
630. 630.BOP
630.7
630.7
72 Electrical
72
72Supply
2 Contract
2
C
&
I
Supply
Contract
%
2.6
2.6
2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
3rd year% Delivery
Completion of GT, HRSG and
%
(2016Steam Turbine packages up to site
17)
Gwh.
614 614 6143 6143. 6143.
of Gas Turbine
3.2 Successful
3.2
.2 Synchronization
2
2
Erection of HRSGs Unite 1&2
Erection of Steam Turbine Generator

7.4. YearWise
Compone
t Wise
Financial
Phasing

8.
Annual

Completion of Hydro Test 1st & 2nd HRSGs


Successful synchronization of steam Turbine
Generator
CCPP Ready for commercial operation

4th Year
(2017Total Cost
18) (Eq.USD

Year

Year-1
Year-2
Year-3
Year-4
Total

Million)
12.5975
335.9332
335.9332
155.3691
839.833

Total Cost (Eq


PkR Million*)
1272.347 (Seed
Money)
33929.25
33929.25
15692.28
84823.14

operating Cost based on


proposed capacity
utilization and source of
financing:

26 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

Variable Cost
Fuel (R-LNG) Cost *
in PKR/Kwh
Annual Fuel (R-LNG)
Cost (in PKR Billion)

O&M Expenses (in


PKR / KWh)
Annual O&M
Expenses (in PKR
Million)
Total Variable Cost
(Fuel
+O&M) (in Eq.PKR
billion
Total Variable Cost
(Fuel
+O&M) (in Eq.USD
Million)*

Yr
1
6.0
46
38.
13
3

Yr
2
6.0
46
38.
13
3

0.2
76
17
40.
8
39.
87
4
39
4.8

Yr

Yr 4

Yr 5

3
6.046

6.04
6
38.1
33

6.046
38.13
3

38.133

0.2
76
17
40.
8
39.
87
4

0.276

0.276

1740.
8

1740.8

39.87
4

39.874

39.8
74

39
4.8

394.8

394.8

394.
8

0.27
6
1740
.8

*based on assumed R-LNG


price of USD 10/MMBtu and
Exchange rate 1 USD = 101
PKR

Source of financing

The O&M Cost will be met


through the Tariff approved by
NEPRA

27 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

9. Demand
and supply
analysis
9.1 Existing
capacity of
services and
supply/
demand

Existing Installed Capacity & Capability of X-WAPDA DISCOs System


sr.n
o

Public Sector

Hydro
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Mangla
Ghazi barotha
Warsak
Chasma Low Head
Allal Khwar HPP
Jinnah Low Head
Small Hydels
Khan Khawar HPP
Dubair Khwar

Fuel*

W
W
W
RFO/FD/G
W
W
W
W
W

Sub-Total (Wapda Hydel)

Derated
capacity/capabili
ty (MW)

Capability (MW)
with planned
outages

capability (MW)
with forced
outages

capability with gas


unavailablity

summ
er

wint
er

summ
er

wint
er

summ
er

wint
er

summ
er

winter

1000
1450
243
184
121
96
128
72
130

960
1357
200
157
121
96
81
72
130

350
794
139
67
60
40
26
15
65

960
1357
200
157
121
96
81
72
130

350
794
139
67
60
40
26
15
65

960
1357
200
157
121
96
81
72
130

350
794
139
67
60
40
26
15
65

960
1357
200
157
121
96
81
72
130

350
794
139
67
60
40
26
15
65

6902

6807

2385

6807

2385

6807

2385

6807

2385

11

TPS jamshore #1-4

Gas/Fo/RF

850

700

700

700

700

700

700

700

700

12

GTPS Kotri #1-7


Sub-Total Genco-1
TPS Guddu Steam #1-4
TPS Guddu CC#5-13
Guddu 747 CC
TPS Quetta
Sub-Total Genco-11
TPS Muzzaffargarh#1-6

GAs/HSD

174
1024
640
1015
747
35
1927
1350

140
840
270
885
747
25
1927
1130

140
840
270
885
747
25
1927
1130

140
840
270
885
747
25
1927
1130

140
840
270
885
747
25
1927
1130

140
840
270
885
747
25
1927
1130

140
840
270
885
747
25
1927
1130

140
840
270
885
747
25
1927
1130

140
840
270
885
747
25
1927
1130

195
244
132
44
95
2060
150
150
5671

60
210
100
30
95
1625
30
30
4422

60
210
100
30
95
1530
30
30
4327

60
210
100
30
95
1530
30
30
4327

60
210
100
30
95
1530
30
30
4327

60
210
100
30
95
1530
30
30
4327

60
210
100
30
95
1530
30
30
4327

60
210
100
30
95
1530
30
30
4327

60
210
100
30
95
1530
30
30
4327

325
340

300
315

287
301

271
285

251
263

235
247

251
263

235
247

665

615

587

556

514

482

514

482

13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

Private Sector

Name of power station

Install
ed
capaci
ty
(MW)

NGPS Multan#1&2
GTPS faislabad#1-9
SPS Faislabad#1&2
Shahdara GT
Nandipur
Sub-Total Genco-111
FBC Lakhra
Sub-Total Genco-IV
Sub Total Gencos

Gas/FO
G
G
G
2437
RFO/FD/G
Gas/RFO/HS
D
GAs/HSD
FD/Gas/RF
C
R
C

N
24
25

Chasma (PEAC)-1
Chasma (PEAC)-11

Uranium
Uranium

Sub-Total (Nuclear)

H
26

Jagran Hydel

30

30

10

30

10

30

10

30

10

27

Malakand-111 Hydel

81

81

20

81

20

81

20

81

20

28

New Bong escape

84

84

34

84

34

84

34

84

34

195

195
Ther

64

195

64

195

64

195

64

1638
1292
131
362
365
135

1345
1205
124
350
350
110

1324
1145
118
334
334
114

1253
1085
112
316
316
108

1240
1074
111
313
313
107

1170
1013
105
295
295
100

1240
1074
111
313
313
107

1170
1013
105
295
295
100

Sub-Total (Hydel IPPS)


29
30
31
32
33
34

KAPCO
Hub Power Project (HUBCO)
Kohinoor Energy Ltd.(KEL)
Aps Laipir Ltd.
AES Pak Gen (Pvt)
SEPCOL

RFO/Gas/H
R
R
R
R
R

28 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma
35
36
37
38
39
40
41

Habibullah Energy Ltd


Uch Power Project
Rausch (Pak) Power Ltd.
Fauji kabirwala (FKPCL)
Saba Power Company
Japan Power Generation Ltd
Liberty Power Project

G
G
G
G
R
R
G

140
586
450
157
134
135
235

131
551
399
151
126
107
212

123
526
377
144
119
115
202

117
498
357
137
113
108
191

115
493
354
195
112
107
189

109
465
333
127
106
101
178

115
493
354
195
112
107
189

109
465
333
127
106
101
178

42

Altern Energy Ltd.(ABL)

31

29

30

28

28

26

28

26

43
44

Attock Generation PP
ATLAS Power

R
R

163
219

156
214

149
209

141
198

140
196

132
185

140
196

132
185

45

Engro p.p,Daharki,Sindh

HSD/Gas/F

226

214

207

196

194

183

194

183

46

Salf P.P Sahiwal,Punjab

Gas/HSD

225

205

215

203

201

190

201

190

47

Orient P.P,Ballold,Punjab

Gas/HSD

225

213

215

203

201

190

201

190

48
49

Nishat P.P,Near Lahore


Nishat Proj Lahore

R
R

200
200

195
196

191
191

181
181

179
179

159
169

179
179

159
169

50
51

Foundation Power
Saphire Hurdlke

G
Gas/HSD

174
225

172
212

167
200

158
189

157
187

148
176

157
187

148
176

52
53

Liberty Toch
Hubco Narewal

200
220

196
214

187
204

177
193

175
192

165
181

175
192

165
181

54

Haripur Bhikki

225

199

200

189

187

176

187

176

55

Uch -11

375

375

159

159

159

159

159

159

56
57

Davis
JDW-11
Sub- Total thermal IPPs

10
74
8702

10
24
7510

10
24
7118

10
24
7049

10
24
6657

10
24
7049

10
24
5598

58

fauji wind power

50

10
24
7981
Wind Power
45
17

45

17

45

17

45

17

59

Zertu energy wind power


Sub-total wind power plant
Total wind power plants

56
106
106

48
93
93

48
93
93

48
93
93

18
35
35

15038
7097

13018
7092

11889
7002

10707
2449

Total (X-WAPDA DISCOs System)

22241

20113

18
35
35
1146
6
2449
1395
0

48
93
93

Total thermal (public+private)


Total Hydel (public+private)

18
35
35
1200
1
2449
1448
5

18984

13191

18
35
35

2449
1550
2

12424
7002
19519

11889
7002
18984

Source: Expansion Plan of NTDC 2011-2030 (website)

9.2 Project
demand for
10 years and
supplydemand gap

The growth in electric energy use in Pakistan is expected to


remain high for many years to come, and by 2030, total demand is
expected to increase by factors of between 4.96 to 5.80 times
over the present year 2014-15 level i.e. 28423 MW. This implies
average annual growth rates of between 4.96 and 5.80 of the low
and high scenarios of demand respectively (date received from
NTDC).
Years

Supply

Demand

2013-14
2014-15
2015-16

22,377
24,570
27,796

26,225
28,423
31,018

Surplus/D
eficit
-3848
-3853
-3222

29 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma
2016-17

37,540

33,750

3790

2017-18 44,068

36,728

7340

2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23

40,149
43,867
47,879
52,147
56,665

7051
6501
5098
2764
429

47,200
50,368
52,977
54,911
57,094

30 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma
2023-24 60,378

61,424

-1046

Source: Expansion plan of NTDC 2011-2030 (website)

31 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma
Summary of Generation Addition
9.3
Sr
Fiscal
Name of Project
Agency
Capac
#
Year
ity of
Existing capacity
2014the
15
Foundation wind Energy-2
AEDS
projec 12
Nandipur (Remaning Unite)
GENCO
3
Quaid-e-Azam solar Park PhasePPDB
ts
1
4
Foundation wind Energy-1
AEDB
being
5
Three Gorges Wind Fam
AEDB
imple
6
Other Wind Power Plants
AEDB
ment
7
Quid-e-Azam Solar Park Phase-2
PPDB
ed in /
201516
8
Wind Power Plants
AEDS
privat
9
CHASNUPP-III-Punjab
PAEC
e
10
Quid-e-Azam Solar Park Phase-3
PPDB
sector
2016-

Fuel

Location

Capacit
y (MW)

Commissionin
g date

Wind
RFO
Solar

Gharo, Sindh
Gujranwala
Lal sohnra (Cholistan)

50
330
100

Oct-2014
Dec-2014
Dec-2014

Wind
Wind

Gharo, Sindh
Jhampir, Sindh

50
50

Jan-2015
Jan-2015

Wind

Jhampir/Gharo/BhamboreSi
ndh

330

Jan-2015

Solar

Laal Sohnra
(Cholistan),Punjab

300

Jan-2015

Wind
Nucl
Solar

Jhampir/Ghare/BhambareSi
ndh
Chashma KPK
Lal sohnra (Cholistan)

650

Apr-2016

340
600

March-2016
Jan-2016

520

Nov-2016

Addition/
Year
(MW)

Total Installed Capac

1210

22241
23451

1590

25041

4975

30016

8802

38818

4090

42908

6660

49768

8300

58068

17
11

Wind Power Plants

AEDB

Wind

12

Neelum Jhelum Hydel

WAPDA

Hydel

Jhampir/Ghare/Bhambare
Sindh
Nauseri/Muzaffarabad,AjK

969

Nov-2016

13

Coal Plant at Sahiwal

PPDB

Coal

Sahiwal,Punjab

1320

Nov-2016

14

Grange Helding

PPIB

Oil

Arif wala Punjab

163

Dec-2016

15
16

Golen Gol HPP


CHASNUPP-IV-Punjab

WAPDA
PAEC

Hydel
Nucl

Chitral,KPK
Chashma KPK

106
340

Dec-2016
Dec-2016

17

Tarbela 4th Ext.Hydro

WAPDA

Hydel

Tarbela, KPk

1410

Mar-2017

Patrind HPP

PPIB

Hayde
l

Kunhar River,KPK,AJK

145

Apr-2017

18
201718
19
20

Keyal Khwar
Pakistan Power Park at Gaddani

WAPDA
PPIB

Hydel
Coal

Dasu,District KPK
Pakistan Power
Park,Gadani,Balochistan

122
3960

Oct-2017
Dec-2017

21
22

Engro Ther Coal


Port Qasim PP

PPIB
PPIB

Coal
Coal

Engro Ther Coal


Thar,Sindh

660
1320

Dec-2017
Dec-2017

23
24

GulPur Ponch River


Coal plant at Muzzafargarh

PPIB
PPDB

Hydal
Coal

Port Qasim, Karachi


Muzaffargarh,Punjab

100
1320

Dec-2017
Jun-2018

Coal Plant at R.Y Khan

PPDB

Coal

R.Y.Khan,Punjab

1320

Jun-2018

TPS Jamashoro (Unit Add)


Phase-2
Sehra HPP

GENCO
s
PPIB

Coal

Jamashoro, Sindh

660

Sep-2018

Hydel

Ponch, River,AJK

130

Dec-2018

28

Pakistan Power Park Gaddani


(remaining 4 unit)

PPIB

Coal

Pakistan Power
Park,Gadani,Balochistan

2640

Dec-2018

29

TPS Jamashoro (Unit Add,)


Phase-2

GENCO
s

Coal

Jamashoro, Sindh

660

Mar-2019

30

Casa

GOP

Imp

1000

Jul-2019

31

Tarbela 5th ext. Hydro

WAPDA

Hydel

Cross Border
Interconnection
Tarbela ,KPK

1320

Jul-2019

32

Phandar Hydro

WAPDA

Hydel

80

May-2019

33

Karot HPP

PPIB

Hydel

720

Jun-2020

34

Azad Pattan HPP

PPIB

Hydel

On Ghizer River,Gilgit
Baltistan
Jehlum River,Distt
Rawalpindi Punjab
Jehlum River/Sudhnold,AJK

640

Jun-2020

35

Suki Kinari

PPIB

Hydel

840

Jun-2020

36

Kotli

PPIB

Hydel

Kunhar
River/Mansehra,KPK
Ponch, River/Kotli,AJK

100

Jun-2020

37

Dasu-1

WAPDA

Hydel

7Km Upstream of Dasu


Village on Indus River

2160

Jun-2020

25
201819
26
27

201920

202021
38

Karachi Coastal Power Plant


unit-1
Kohala
Chakothi-

PAEC

Nuci

Karachi Sindh

1100

Aug-2020

39
40

PPIB
PPIB

Hydel
Hydel

1100
500

Dec-2020
Dec-2020

41

Diameter Basha

WAPDA

Hydel

Jehlum River/Kohala AJK


River Jehlum, Distt
Hattian,AJK
Diameter Basha

4500

Jun-2021

PAEC

Nuci

Karachi,Sindh

1100

Jun-2021

42

Karachi Coastal Power Plant


unit-2
Total Generation Addition
Reference:
(JKHEB,PEDO,PPIB,AEDB,PPOB AND AEC
Information)

42687

32 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma
Jun-20121

9.4 Designed
capacity and
output of the
proposed
project
10: Financial
Plan

Thermal modelling has been under taken to provide indicative


output and
Performance of the 1169 MW (net) plant. The gross capacity of the
CCPP is
1200 MW. With the auxiliary power consumption of 2.6% the
net capacity of The unit is therefore 1169MW.
Source of Financing
For the execution of projects, as per the decision of CCOE,
100 % funding will be provided through PSDP, to avoid
excessive loaning. Accordingly appropriate allocations will
be required to be made in PSDP 2014-15,2015-16 and 201617 and 2017-18

11: Benefits
of the
Project And
Analysis
11.1 Financial

Not applicable

11.2 Economic

Benefit to the economy along with assumptions:

11.3 Social

Benefit with indicators:


The project will have many direct and indirect socioeconomic benefits namely rapid industrial growth in the
industrial estates, enhanced industrial production to boost
export, more foreign exchanges for the country and new
jobs for unskilled and skilled personnel during construction
and operating phases etc.
The overall energy cost gas fired power plant is cheaper
than that of oil fired energy cost. The cheaper energy shall
benefit the industry as its cost of production will go down
which is an important factor in present, day circumstances
where a lot of competition exists. The exportable items will
be
Able to compete in international market and earn precious
foreign exchange for the country.
Sustained industrial
activities shall produce reliable employment opportunities in
the area and benefiting the masses.

33 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

11.4
Environme
ntal Impact
assessment

The project primarily falls within area of kot kamian and is


located on the left bank of Trimmu-Sidhnai Link Canal. The
proposed site is accessible through Bhakkar Jhang Road. In
Project Area several tube wells are installed that operates
on Peter Engines to provide irrigation water; Land is mostly
agriculture with sparse buildup structures. The nearby
villages are Doi
Muhammad, Basti Korawala, Basti Rasheed Wala Kot Kamia.
Air Quality of project and Study Area is Visually
fine.Groundwater in the Study
Area mostly being used as a main source of irrigation and
drinking through tube wells and hand pumps. The surface
water body in the Study Area is Trimmu-Sidhnai Link Canal
and Haveli Main Line (HML) that runs parallel to each other
and both originates from Trimmu-Barrage.The Quality of
surface water in the vicinity of project area is visually fine.
The Overall environmental Impacts of Regasified Liquefied
Natural Gas (RLNG) based Thermal Power Plant is as low as
RLNG is environmental friendly. The project has several
positive Impacts such as employment Opportunities,
Increased Accessibility, and increase in Business etc.
However, the negative Impacts of project can be the
conversion of agriculture land into the built up area and
acquisition of private land, Impact on trees, Impact on
water, resources and other construction and operation
related Impacts
The environmental Impact of project are being assessed
through an Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) which is
in progress. The EIA will be got approved from
Environmental protection Agency (EPA) before starting the
implementation of the Project.

34 | P a g e

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PC-1 Proforma

35 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

11.5 Financial
Analysis
11.6 Economic
Analysis

Not Applicable
Economic Parameters
Present worth of HSFO
based Combined Cycle
power plant Costs (Million
US$)-without project
Present Worth of R-LNG
based power plant
Costs(Million US$)-with
project Net Present Value
(Million US$)
B/C Ratio
EIRR (%)

Result at 12 % Discount
Rate
3750.04

2620.90
1129.14
1.43:1
51.71

Detailed Economic Analysis of project is attached at


Annexure-VI
11.7 Employment
Analysis

Description
S.N
1
2

3
4
5
6
7

11.8 Sensitivity
analysis

Professional &
Technical
Administrative
Executive and
managerial
Clerical
Services
Skilled
Unskilled
Others
Total

Description
Base Case*
Sensitivity Analysis
i)10 percent increase in
proposed power plant
costs
ii)10 percent decrease in
HSFO based combined
cycle power plant costs
iii) 20 percent increase in
proposed power plant
costs

For Execution
NO
Month
4

33

33

2
2
3
5
7
23

33
33
33
33

EIRR (%)
51.71
37.69
36.43

27.75

36 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

*Comparison between Equivalent HSFO based combined


cycle power plant and proposed Power Plant
Detail are attached as Annexure-VI

37 | P a g e

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PC-1 Proforma

12 a)
Implementatio
n schedule

Considering Implementation of the project through a single


Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) contract
the implementation arrangement, financing and O & M after
COD of the CCPP will be 27 months
Date of starting of the project = Date of notice to proceed
Date of completion of the project = 27 Months from the
notice to proceed.

12 b) Result
based
monitoring
(RBM)
Indicators

Result Based Monitoring Framework Indicators have been


provided in the Table below:
Outcome
Targeted
Baselin
Target
Input
Out put
Impact
e
after
Indicat Completion
or
of Project
Eq.PKR
R-LNG
Annual
Energy
Increase in
84823.1 based CCPP Energy
production
overall
4M
at
generati as 6307 GHw economic
Kheshgi,Dist on as
per Annum,
indicators
rict
6307
an addition
including
Nowshera
GWh
in the
GDP etc.
will have
existing
installed
capacity
gross
generation
capacity of
1200 MW.

13.
Manageme
nt
structure
and
manpower
requiremen
t

CEO
NPPMCL
COO
CPPCL

Chief
Technical
officer
Technical
Experts/Engin
eer

Director(Lega
l)

Legal Officers

Director
(Finance)

Finacial/Acco
unts officers

The BoD of the Company will approve the


38 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

13.1.
Administra
tive
arrangeme
nt for
implement
ation of
project
13.2.
Manpower
Requireme
nts
13.3. Job
descriptio
n
qualificati
on,
experience
, age and
salary of
each post

management Structure and Man-power requirements.


All officers shall have support staff

SPV formed to undertake the Project will be structured in a


manner to ensure fast track execution of the project. There
will be project steering committee with board based
representation Ministry of Water and Power will also
establish a project monitoring unit.

Exact requirement will be determined by the board of


directors of the company in due course of time.

Detailed JDs/ToRs will be developed and approved by the


board of directors of the company in due course of time. The
staff will be hired both from public and private sectors
through a transparent and competitive process.

39 | P a g e

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PC-1 Proforma

15. Certified that the Project proposal has been prepared on the Basis of
instruction provided by the Planning Commission for the Preparation of Pc-1 for
Infrastructure Sector Project.
i.

Prepared By

NESPAK
GENERAL MANAGER
National Engineering
Services

Pakistan Ltd.
ii.

Reviewed By

(------------------)
Chief Technical Officer
CPPCL

iii.

Counted Checked By

iv.

Final Reviewed By

(-----------------)
Chief Executive Officer

v.

Recommended By

(-----------------)
Secretary (MoW&P)
Government of Pakistan.

(------------------)
Chief Operating Officer

40 | P a g e

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PC-1 Proforma

41 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

42 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

ITEM

DESCRIPTION

GAS TURBINE HALL

H.R.S.G

STEAM TURBINE HALL

CENTRAL CONTROLE BUILDING

GAS CONDITIONING SKID

500KV OUTDOOR SWITCHYARD

500KV SWITCHYARD CONTROL BUILDING

STEAM TURBINE MAIN TRANSFORMER

GAS TURBINE MAIN TRANSFORMER

10

STATION AUX TRANSFORMER

11

AIR COMPRESSER BUILDING

12

EMERGENCY DIESEL GENERATOR BUILDING

13

CIRCULATING WATER PUMP HOUSE

14

MECHANICAL DRAFT COOLING TOWER

15

RAW WATER TREATMENTE PLANT

16

FIRE PUMP HOUSE

17

DM WATER TANK

18

CLARIFIER

19

FIRE FIGHTING WATER TANK

20

CLARIFIER

21

RAIN WATER PUMP HOUSE

22

SEWAGE TREATMENT PLANT

23

LINE DOSING EQUIPMENT

24

WATER TREATMENT PLANT

25

CHEMICAL LAB

26

WATER TREATMENT PLANT AREA

27

PURIFIED WATER PIT

28

SLUDGE ENRIGHTMENT TANK

29

ONCE THROUGH COOLING WATER P.H

30

CHEMICAL AUXULARY BUILDING

31

WATER STORAGE POND

32

ACID AND ALKALI STORAGE AREA

33

AUXULARY BOILER HOUSE

34

HYDROGEN GENERATION PLANT

35

GAS BOOSTER COMPRESSOR STATION

36

AREA ALLOCATED FOR SNGPL STATION

37

NO REGULATED STATION

38

VENT

39

NG REGULATING STATION CONTROL ROOM

40

ADMINISTRATION BUILDING

41

WORKSHOP

42

STORE

43 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

S.
N.

1
2
3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4
5
6

8
9
10
11
12
13

Cost elements

Land Cost (150 acres x PKR 1 M / Acre


Land Development including Security
Fence / Boundary Wall etc.
EPC Cost including Design, supply,
Installation, Testing & Commissioning
of CCPP (Sum of items 3.1-3.9)*
Gas Turbine & Generator
Heat Recovery Steam Generator
Steam Turbine & Generator
Power Transformers
500 kv Switchyard
Cooling Water System
Gas Booster Compressor Station
Balance of Plant (BoP)
Civil Works
Customs Duty(5 % of the items 3.1-3.9
Mandatory Space Parts @ 3 % of items
3.1-3.9
Insurance during Construction (1% of
EPC cost)
Preoperative expenses including
security, communications,
administration and management costs
of the Client during project execution
@ 3% of EPC cost **

Estimat
ed
Foreign
Curren
cy
Compo
nent
(USD
million
s)
0

Estima
ted
Local
Curren
cy
Compo
nent
(PKR
million
s)
150

Total
Estimate
d Cost
(Eq. USD
Million)

Total
Estimate
d Cost
(Eq PKR
Million)

1.49

150

100

0.99

100

637

6363

700

707000

210
112
140
14
21
10.5
17.5
112
0
31.85

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6363
0

210
112
140
14
21
10.5
17.5
112
63
31.85

21210
11312
14140
1414
2121
1060.5
1767.5
11312
6363
3216.85

19.11

19.11

1930.11

6.37

63.63

707

1414

14

1414

2121

21

2121

0.05

17.36

255.42

19.89

2008.6

21.35

314.16
10786.
21

24.46

2470.58
84823.1
4

Technical, legal and financial


consultancy services cost during
project execution @ 3% of EPC cost***
Licensing Fee
Financing fees and charges @ 2.5 % of
the item 1-9
Contingency*** ( 3% of items 1-10)
Project Cost before IDC (sum of items
1-11)
Specific Project Cost before IDC
(Million USD/ MW)

733.04

839.83
0.7

14

Interest During Construction****

15

Total Project Capital Cost including IDC

733.04

10786.
21

839.83

84823.1
4

16

Specific Project Capital Cost (Million


USD/MW)

0.7

44 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

S NO

**

***
****

Cost ele
Cost
elements
ments

Estimated
Estimated
Total
Total
Foreign
Local
Estimated
Estimated
Currency
Currency
Cost (Eq.
Cost (Eq
Component Component
USD
PKR Million)
(USD
(PKR
Million)
millions)
millions)
Total EPC Cost and its breakdown is based on Gas Turbine World
Handbook 2013, budgetary quotations received from OEMs and
Consultants past experience on working on similar projects e.g.
747 MW CCPP Guddu etc.
The consultancy services cost covers the expenses of the local /
expatriate technical, legal and financial consultants during all
phases of the project and is based on experience on similar
projects.
Provision of contingencies is to meet unforeseen requirements
during execution of the project.
The Project will be financed through PSDP

45 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

SUI NORTHERN GAS PIPELINE


LIMITED
GAS HOUSE , 21 KASHMIR ROAD, P O BOX 56 LAHORE

Ref; CP & D/02-6906


Date; March 03, 2015
Mr. Shahid Mahmood,
General Manager / Project Manager,
National Engineering Services Pakistan (Pvt ) Ltd.
NESPAK House, I C, Block-N
Model Town Extension
Lahore
RLNG BASED POWER PLANTS IN PUNJAB AT BHIKKI, BALLOKI AND HAVELI
BAHADUR

SHAH-GAS PRESSURE AND COMPOSITION

Dear Sir,

This refer s to you letter No. SA-307/165/SM/01/8233 dated 26.02.2015 on the


subject cited above. The desired information is as under:
1-

Pressure at which 200 MMCFD gas will be made available to Power Plants:
Sr.
N
o
123-

Plant Location
Bhikki, District
Sheikhupura
Balloki, District Kasur
Haveli Bahadur shah,
District Jhang

Delivery
Pressures
(PSIG)
300-400
300-400
500-700

Remarks
Pressure at
vary due to
consumption
power plants
consumption
system.

these locations may


the variation in gas
as location of these
is close to major gas
hubs
on
SNGPL

2- GAS COMPOSITION: RLNG shall be fed to our system from southern side at Sawan (SNGPLs
system starting point) and transported to downstream of Swan along with existing southern
sources gases. Therefore, gas composition has been determined by comingling the RLNG
composition with southern sources gases and shall be dependent upon Qatar Gas Source from
where at present RLNG is being purchased. Net composition may change if RLNG is purchased
from source other than Qatar Gas / spot purchase.

Component

Units

RLNG

Methane (Cl)

Mole
Percent
Mole
Percent
Mole

90.15

Ethane (C2)
Propane (C3)

Composition
Southern
Commingled Gas
System Gas
87.02
88.852 +5%

1.122

5.148 +5%

0.25

0.266

0.257 +5%

46 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma
Butane and heavier
(C4+)
Nitrogen (N2)
Carbon Dioxide
Grass Calorific Value

Percent
Mole
Percent
Mole
Percent
Mole
Percent
Btu/Scf

0.1

0.3

0.183

+5%

1.5

9.496

4.185

+5%

1.797

0.745

+5%

1050

916.356

950 to 1000

SUI NORTHERN GAS PIPELINE


LIMITED
GAS HOUSE , 21 KASHMIR ROAD, P O BOX 56 LAHORE
We hope above information shall fulfill yours requirements.
Regards,
Yours
sincerely,
SUI NORTHERN GAS PIPELINES
LTD
(Ali Hussain
Qureshi)
Manager (T)
Cc:
Cc:
Cc:
Cc:

DMD (Ops)
SGM (ES)
GM (Ops)
GM (P&D)

Sr. General
For MANAGING

DIRECTOR

47 | P a g e

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PC-1 Proforma

48 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

R-LNG
Based
Power
Plant

Economic Analysis

1. GENERAL

46

2. METHODOLOGY

46

3. PARAMETERS FOR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

46

3.1.1. Price Datum

46
49 | P a g e

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PC-1 Proforma

3.1.2. Exchange Rate

47

3.1.3. Discount Rate

47

3.1.4. Salvage Value

47

3.1.5. Energy Generation

47

4. ECONAMIC ANALYSIS

47

4.1. COSTS UNDER WITHOUT & WITH PROJECT

47

4.1.1. Costs of Equivalent HSFO Based Combined Cycle Power


Facility

48

4.1.1.1. Capital Cost of Equivalent HSFO based Combined cycle


Power Facility

48

4.1.1.2. Recurrent Costs of Equivalent HSFO based Combined Cycle


Power facility
49
4.1.1.3. Annual Stream of Costs

50

4.1.2. Costs of R-LNG based Combined cycle Power Plant

50

4.1.2.1. Capital Costs

50

4.1.2.2. Recurrent Costs

50

4.1.2.3. Fuel costs

51

4.1.2.4. Annual Stream of costs

51

4.2. COST SAVINGS/BENEFITS DUE TO PROPOSED PROJECT

51

5. RESULTS OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

51

5.1. SENSITIVITY / RISK ANALYSIS

51

6. RECOMMENDATION

52

R-LNG Based Power Plant


ECONAMIC ANALYSIS OF 1000-1200 MW (GROSS) RE-GASIFIED LIQUEFIED
NATURAL GAS (RLNG) BASED COMBINED CYCLE POWER PLANT AT KHESHGI
DISTRICT NOWSHERA PAKISTAN

1. GENERAL

50 | P a g e

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PC-1 Proforma

This chapter presents the economic analysis of R-LNG based combined cycle
power plant project at Kheshgi district Nowshera. The purpose of the study is to
assess the economic viability of the project and to determine the return to the
economy as a whole
2. METHODOLOGY
Economic justification of the project has been established by showing its
profitability in terms of excess of benefits to the economy over economic costs
by using the discounted cash flow technique. The projected stream of project
benefits (arising out of project implementation) over the economic life of the
project has been compared to the estimated stream of economic costs by
bringing the two to a uniform basis through the process of discounting. The
economic indicators such as Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit Cost Ratio (B/C)
and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) have been computed.
The economic justification has been substantiated by the following studies:
i)
Economic analysis, covering
a)
Determination of parameters for economic analysis
b)
Qualification of project benefits
c)
Determination of project costs
d)
Calculation of economic indicators such as NPV,
B/C Ratio, EIRR.
ii)

Sensitivity Analysis

3. PARAMETERS FOR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS


Important Parameters used in economic analysis are detailed as under:
3.1.1.

Price Datum

All costs and benefits attributed to the project are expressed in constant March,
2015 price level. No allowance for inflation during and after the construction
period of the project has been taken into account in the economic analysis.
3.1.2.
Exchange Rate
In view of the existence of a freely floating exchange rate in Pakistan, the
calculation of a shadow price is not considered necessary as would be the case
if the exchange rate is not floating. This, however, does not imply that the
balance of payments is considered to be in equilibrium or that such distortion as
import and export taxes do not exist. Exchange rate as prevailing in March,
2015 has been taken as Rs 101=1 US Dollar.

51 | P a g e

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PC-1 Proforma

3.1.3.

Discount Rate

In Pakistan, the marginal productivity of capital is believed to lie somewhere


between 10 and 12 percent. The appraisal wing of the planning Commission,
Government of Pakistan in the recently approved PC-1s is using OCC
(Opportunity Cost of Capital) of 12%. For this study also a discount rate of 12%
has been used for economic appraisal.
3.1.4.

Salvage Value

Salvage value is assumed as 10% and is taken in the last year of operation.
3.1.5.

Energy Generation

The average annual energy generated from the 1200 MW (Installed capacity) RLNG based combined cycle power plant project is estimated at 6307 GWh,
which is used here for economic analysis.
4. ECONAMIC ANALYSIS
Economic appraisal of proposed R-LNG based combined cycle power plant
project has been carried out by comparing it with an equivalent High Sulphur
Furnace Oil (HSFO) based combined power plant. It may be referred here that
for the purpose of analysis "With" and "Without" project scenarios were
developed. The "Without Project" scenario is represents HSFO based combined
cycle power plant while With Project" scenario is represented by R-LNG based
combined cycle power plant. The comparison of the total cost (capital,
operational and fuel cost) stream under the two scenarios and the resultant
savings due to operations of R-LNG based power plant provided the benefits to
the economy.
4.1.COSTS UNDER WITHOUT & WITH PROJECT
Unlike the general infrastructure projects, the economic appraisal of the
proposed project has been carried out by comparing it with an equivalent HSFO
based power plant. For the purpose of analysis "With" and "Without" project
scenarios have been developed. The "Without Project scenario represent a
HSFO based power plant to generate 6307 GWh energy, while "With Project"
scenario is represented by R-LNG based combined cycle power plant.
The cost stream "With and "Without project scenarios have been compared
over the life of the project. Difference of the two costs is taken as cost savings
or benefits due to proposed project. Full details of capital and operating costs of
52 | P a g e

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PC-1 Proforma

HSFO based combined cycle power equivalent as well as those of LNG based
combined cycle power plant are detailed in Section 4.1.1 and 4.1.2 here below.

1.1.1.Costs of Equivalent HSFO Based Combined Cycle Power Facility


These costs include Capital Costs, Operation and Maintenance Costs, Fuel Costs
and also replacement Costs. These costs of equivalent thermal power plant
have been developed using typical US$/kW specific costs prevailing in the
power market.
1.1.1.1. Capital Cost of Equivalent HSFO based Combined cycle Power
Facility
The capital cost of equivalent HSFO (High Sulphur Furnace Oil) based combined
power facility is estimated cost 960 million US$ (MUSD) as detailed in table-2
Table-2 Investment Costs Computation
Cost of Equivalent HSFO based Combined
cycle Power Plant

0.8 Million US$ per


MW

Plant Capacity

1200MW

Total Investment Costs


(0.8* 1200)

960 Million US$

As the analysis has been undertaken in US$ million, thereby the capital costs in
economic terms has been taken as same as 960 Million US$. These costs are
phased over the period of Five years as given in Table-3

R-LNG Based Power Plant


Table-3 Investment Costs
Year

Financial/Econo
53 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

1
2
3
4
5
Total:

mic Costs
12.24
192.00
288.00
288.00
179.76
960.00

1.1.1.2. Recurrent Costs of Equivalent HSFO based Combined Cycle Power facility
O&M Costs
The total Annual O&M cost of the equivalent thermal plant is estimated as 36.24
Million US$. The fixed O&M cost is estimated as 4.8 Million US$ per annum and
variable O&M is calculated as 31.54 Million US$. The detail is given in table-4
Table-4 O&M Costs
Fixed O&M Costs (US$/KW) per annum

US$ 4/KW

Fixed O&M Costs per annum (Million


US$)
(4x1000x1200/1000000)
Variable O&M Costs (US$ cents/KWh)
Energy Generation (net available energy
for sale) GWh
Variable O&M Costs per annum (Million
US$)
(0.5/100*6307)
Total Annual O&M Cost (Million US$)

4.80

0.50
6307
31.54

36.34

Fuel cost
Cost of fuel (furnace oil) for generation of 6307 GWh energy is calculated as
750.36 Million US$ and 641.33 Million US$ per annum in financial and economic
term respectively and detailed in Table-5.
Table-5 Fuel Costs
Parameters
HSFO Economic Price*(Rs./M.Ton)
GST (%)
HSFO Financial Price (Rs./M.Ton)
51350+(51350x0.17)
HSFO Financial Price(Rs/Kg)
60080/1000

Value
51350
17
60080
60.80

54 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

HSFO Economic Price (Rs/Kg)


51350/1000
Heating Value of Fuel (KJ/Kg)
Exchange Rate US$ 1=Rs 101
Plant Efficiency (%)
Conversion (KJ-KWh)

51.35

Fuel Financial Cost (Rs/KWh)


(60.08/101/40000)x3600/45%
Fuel Economic Cost (Rs/KWh)
(51.35/101/40000)x3600/45%
Energy Generation (GWh)
Total Annual Fuel Cost (Financial Term)
(Million US$) (11.90x6307)
Total Annual Fuel Cost (Economic Term)
(Million US$) (10.17x6307)

40000
101
45%
1KWh=3600
KJ
11.90
10.17
6307
750.36
641.34

1.1.1.3. Annual Stream of Costs


Detailed costs of equivalent HSFO based combined cycle Power plant (without
project) are discussed in detail in section 4.1.1 and annual streams of costs in
financial terms as well as in economic terms are given in Table-6.
1.1.2.Costs of R-LNG based Combined cycle Power Plant
These include project investment costs and also annual recurring costs.
1.1.2.1. Capital Costs
Total project investment costs are estimated as 839.833 Million US$. For the
economic analysis, the costs excluding custom duties of US$ 31.85 Million have
been deducted from the costs. The total investment costs thus calculated as
807.98 Million US$. The costs phased over a construction period of four years
are detailed in Table-7.
Table-7 Annual Phasing of Capital Costs
(Million US$)

Year
1
2
3
4
Total
cost:

Construction Costs
Financial/
12.24
326.06
320.13
149.55
807.98

*Net of custom duties

1.1.2.2. Recurrent Costs


Annual Operating & Maintenance (O&M) cost of proposed facility is estimated as
17.24 Million US$.
55 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

1.1.2.3. Fuel costs


Annual fuel cost of R-LNG Power Plant has been calculated as 377.58 Million US$
on the basis of LNG price of 10US$/MMBTU.
1.1.2.4. Annual Stream of costs
Detailed costs of proposed power plant (with project) are discussed in detail in
section 4.1.2 and annual streams of costs in financial terms as well as in
economic terms are given in Table-8.
1.2. COST SAVINGS/BENEFITS DUE TO PROPOSED PROJECT
A summary of the two cost streams i.e. costs under without project conditions
(equivalent HSFO based Combined cycle Power Plant) and the same under with
project conditions (of proposed LNG based Combined cycle Power Plant) in
economic terms is given in Table-9. Difference of the two costs is taken as cost
savings or benefits to the economy due to proposed project. The saving benefits
over the life of the project including construction period are estimated and also
appear in the same table.
5. RESULTS OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
The discounted cash flow of net economic benefits given in table-9 and the EIRR
is computed as 51.71 percent. The economic indicators, thus estimated are
summarized in Table-10.
Table-10 Results of the Economic Analysis
Economic Parameters

-Present worth of HSFO based combined cycle Power


plant Costs (Million US$)- without project
-Present Worth of R-LNG based power plant Costs
(Million US$)- with project
-Net Present Value (Million US$)
-B/C Ratio
-EIRR (Percent)

Results at
12%
Discount
Rate
3750.04

2620.90
1129.14
1.43:1
51.71

5.1.SENSITIVITY / RISK ANALYSIS


In order to examine the effect on the EIRR, the following sensitivity tests have
been considered:
Sensitivity Test Assumptions
(i) Increase in proposed power plant costs by 10%
(ii) Decrease in HSFO based combined cycle Power Plant costs by 10%.
56 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

(iii) Increase in proposed power plant costs by 20%.


Detailed calculation of economic analysis is given in Table-10. The results of the
sensitivity analysis are summarized in Table-11.

Table-11 Sensitivity Analysis


Description
Base Case*
Sensitivity Analysis

EIRR
(Percent)
51.71
37.69

(i)10 percent increase in proposed power


plant costs
36.43
(ii)10 percent decrease in HSFO based
combined cycle power plant costs
27.75
(iii)10 percent increase in power plant costs
*Comparison between Equivalent HSFO based Combined Cycle Power plant and
proposed power Plant.

6. RECOMMENDATION
The results given above indicate that, at 12% discount rate, the calculated EIRR
is well above 12% (the assumed opportunity cost of capital in Pakistan). The
results of sensitivity analysis also show that in all the cases the calculated EIRR
is above 12 percent, so, the proposed project is not sensitive to changes in
assumptions as stated above. Therefore the proposed project is deemed to be
viable, should therefore be implemented as planned.

57 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

With Project
Table-8
LNG based Combined Cycle
LNG based Combined Cycle Power Plant Costs in Financial & Economic Terms
(US$.Million)
LNG based Combined Cycle Power Plant Costs in
n

Year

Investment**
Costs

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

1
2
3
4

12.24
326.06
320.13
149.55

Total

807.98

Financial Terms
O&M
Costs
Of fuel
Costs
(LNG)
0
0
0
0
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
534.30

11705.06

Total
Costs

Investment**
Costs

12.24
326.06
320.13
149.55
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82

12.24
326.06
320.13
149.55

-79.57

Economic Terms
O&M
Cost of fuel
(LNG)
Costs
0
0
0
0
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58
17.24
377.58

13047.34

807.98

534.30

11705.06

Total
Costs
12.24
326.06
320.13
149.55
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
12967.77

*As the analysis has been undertaken in US$ Million. The cost in Economic Terms is the same as financial.
**Net of custom Duty.
Note: Savings value is taken as 10% of the total cost in the last year of operation.

58 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

Table-9
LNG based Combined Cycle Power Plant
Derivation of Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR)
Comparison with equivalent HSFO based Combined Cycle Power Plant
(
US$.Million)
n

Without Project

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Equivalent HSFO
based Combined
Cycle Power PlantWithout Project
12.24
192.00
288.00
288.00
179.76
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
602.10

Total:-

21214.59

Discount
rates
10%
12%
16%

Present Worth of Costs

With
Project
Combined
Cycle LNG Plant

Net Cost
Savings

Sensitivity Tests
(Net cost savings under Various Assumptions)

12.24
326.06
320.13
149.55
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
394.82
315.24

0.00
-134.06
-32.13
138.45
-215.06
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
282.85
286.85

-1.22
-166.66
-64.14
123.49
-254.54
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
243.37
255.33

-1.22
-153.26
-60.93
109.65
-233.04
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
215.09
226.64

-2.45
-199.27
-96.16
108.54
-294.02
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
203.89
223.80

12967.77

8246.82

6950.04

6125.36

5653.27

Net Present Worth

4658.49
3750.04

3176.60
2620.90

1481.89
1129.14

1164.04
867.05

1016.04
754.14

846.57
604.96

2575.04

1889.27

685.77

496.84

428.26

307.91

36.43

27.75

Economic Internal Rate of Return =


51.71
37.69
BENEFIT/COST RATIO AT 12 % D.R. =
1.43 :1
(a) Proposed Plant Costs increased by 10%
(b) Equivalent HSFO based combined cycle Power Plant Costs decreased by 10%
(c) Proposed Plant Costs increased by 20%

59 | P a g e

1000-2000 MW (Gross) Combined Cycle Power Plant at Kheshgi Nowshera


PC-1 Proforma

Table-6
LNG Combined Cycle Power Plant
Equivalent HSFO based Combined Cycle Power Plant Costs in Financial & Economic
Terms
(US$.Million)
N

year

Equivalent HSFO based Combined Cycle Power Plant Costs in


Financial Terms
Economic Terms*
Investme
O&M
Cost
Total
Investment
O&M
Cost of
nt
Costs
Of fuel
Costs
costs
Costs
fuel
Costs
(Furnace
(Furnace
oil)
Oil)
1
1
12.24
0
0
12.24
12.24
0
0
2
2
192.00
0
0
192.00
192.00
0
0
3
3
288.00
0
0
288.00
288.00
0
0
4
4
288.00
0
0
288.00
288.00
0
0
5
5
179.76
0
0
179.76
179.76
0
0
6
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
7
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
8
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
9
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
10
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
11
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
12
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
13
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
14
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
15
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
16
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
17
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
18
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
19
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
20
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
21
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
22
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
23
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
24
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
25
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
26
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
27
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
28
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
29
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
30
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
31
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
32
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
33
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
34
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
35
36.34
750.36
786.70
36.34
641.34
Total
960.00
1090.08
22510.90
24560.98
960.00
1090.08
19240.08
*As the analysis has been undertaken in US$ Million. The cost in Economic Terms is the same as Financial.
Note: Salvage value is taken as 10% of the total cost in the last year of operation

Total
Costs

12.24
192.00
288.00
288.00
179.76
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
677.67
602.10
21214.59

60 | P a g e

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