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College of Computer Science and Technology, Southwest University for Nationalities, Chengdu 610054, Sichuan, PR China
School of Management and Economics, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610054, Sichuan, PR China
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Keywords:
Ruin probability
Exponential Lvy process
Exponential martingale
Uniform integrable martingale
Value-at-Risk
a b s t r a c t
This paper investigates the innite and nite time ruin probability under the condition that
the company is allowed to invest a certain amount of money in some stock market, and the
remaining reserve in the bond with constant interest force. The total insurance claim
amount is modeled by a compound Poisson process and the price of the risky asset follows
a general exponential Lvy process. Exponential type upper bounds for the ultimate ruin
probability are derived when the investment is a xed constant, which can be calculated
explicitly. This constant investment strategy yields the optimal asymptotic decay of the
ruin probability under some mild assumptions. Finally, we provide an approximation of
the optimal investment strategy, which maximizes the expected wealth of the insurance
company under a risk constraint on the Value-at-Risk.
2015 Published by Elsevier Inc.
1. Introduction
With the development of nancial products the risky investment of an insurer plays a more and more important role for
the insurers success. Hence, how to model the effects of an insurers risky investment on the insurer has become a more and
more popular topic. Consequently, a lot of researchers pay attention to the study the ruin probability with the insurer having
the opportunity to invest in a risky asset, usually modeled by a geometric Brownian motion. In this setting, Frolova et al. [5]
show that when the claims are exponentially distributed, the ruin probability is either 1 for all initial capital reserves or
decreases asymptotically for large initial capital like a negative power function and it depends on the model parameters.
Paulsen and Gjessing [17] and Kalashnikov and Norberg [12] obtain this result even in the case of claim sizes with
exponential moments.
One frequently considered optimization problem is: what is the minimal ruin probability the insurer can obtain and how
much he can invest in the risky asset in order to get the minimal ruin probability. This problem is proposed by Browne [2],
who obtains an optimal investment strategy consisting of holding a constant amount of wealth in the risky asset, under the
assumption that the investment risk process follows a Brownian motion (the so-called diffusion approximation). Hipp and
Plum [11] investigate the general problem with the compound Poisson process for an insurance risk model and geometric
Brownian motion for a risky asset model. They derive the corresponding HamiltonJacobiBellman (HJB) equation for the
q
This paper was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Education Department of Sichuan Province (Grant No. 15ZB0488) and Innovation
Teams (Grant No. 14CXTD03). It is also supported by the National Science Foundation of China (Projects Nos: 71001017 and 61105061).
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: zhaowu@uestc.edu.cn (W. Zhao).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2014.12.042
0096-3003/ 2015 Published by Elsevier Inc.
1031
maximal survival probability and prove the existence of a solution. Gaier et al. [6] show that in the case of exponential claims
there exist constants ^r; C and an investment strategy, which holds a xed amount of wealth invested in the risky asset, such
that for the minimal probability of ruin wx,
^
wx 6 Cerx ;
khr cr
a2
2b
where drift a and volatility b are constants.It is easy to get that ^r is greater than the classical Lundberg exponent. Then they
show a surprising result that if the insurer holds a xed amount of wealth invested in the risky asset, independent of the
current reserve, then it will yield the optimal asymptotic decay of the ruin probability.
But an important issue is whether the geometric Brownian motion describes the development of the risky assets prices
appropriately or not. In fact, the sudden downward (upward) jumps of many stocks prices cannot be explained by the
continuous geometric Brownian motion. One way to handle this problem is to model the price of the risky asset by a more
general exponential Lvy process with jumps. Paulsen and Gjessing [17] investigate the asymptotic behavior for large initial
capital of the innite time ruin probability when the investment process is a general exponential Lvy process. The results
indicate that the ruin probability behaves like a Pareto function of the initial capital.Under the assumption that the reserve is
invested in a stochastic interest process which is a Lvy process, Cai [3] studies ruin probabilities and penalty functions, and
he constructs an integro-differential equation for this model. [14] investigates the optimal investment strategy, which
maximizes the expected wealth of the insurance company under a risk constraint on the Value-at-Risk. However, the
portfolio given by [14] is self-nancing, where borrowing and short selling are forbidden. Kostadinova [10] investigate
the nite time ruin probabilities for the Poisson risk model with an exponential Lvy process investment return and heavy
tailed claims, and they obtain the asymptotic evaluation of ruin probability of nite time ruin probabilities.
The remaining part of this paper consists of four sections. We start with the construction of model and some notations in
Section 2. In Section 3, we assume that the stock price follows an exponential Lvy process, we consider the framework of a
classical ruin process, where the claims have exponential moments. Different from the self-nancing strategy of Kostadinova
[14], the strategy in our model is not budget constrained. By using the approach of exponential martingale and we obtain the
similar result as Gaier et al. [6] for the minimal ruin probability. Section 4, developed by Gaier et al. [6], and by taking the
advantage of the results of Section 3, we show that the constant investment is asymptotically optimal under some mild
assumptions. In Section 5, using the results in Heyde and Wang [10], we obtain the optimal strategy when the strategy is
restricted to the mix strategy.
2. The model
Our model is built on a probability space X; F ; P. For the risk process R of the insurer, we use the following model:
Rt; u u ct
Nt
X
Xn;
n1
where u P 0 is the initial reserve of the insurer. c > 0 is the premium rate over time. X n , which denotes the size of nth claim,
n 1; 2; . . ., constitutes a sequence of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) and non-negative random variables
with a generic random variable X and a common distribution function (d.f.) F X x, and N fNtgtP0 is a homogeneous
Poisson process with intensity k and independent of fX n gn2N .
Now we set up the insurance risk model which will be discussed in the paper. Assume that the insurer may also invest in
a stock or market index, modeled by an exponential Lvy process, and the stock price process is presented as follows
St eLt ;
t P 0:
The process L fLtgtP0 with L0 0 is a Lvy process with characteristic triplet c; r ; m and characteristic exponent
2
W. The characteristic function of Lt has the form, EeisLt etWs ; s 2 R, where W is given by the LvyKhintchine formula
Z 1
isx
r2
Ws isc s2
e 1 isxIfjxj61g mdx;
5
2
1
with c 2 R and r P 0. Here, IfAg is the indicator function of set A, and m is called Lvy measure on R n f0g satisfying mf0g 0
R 1 2
x ^ 1mdx < 1. Using It formula for semimartingales, we have
1
and
r2
dSt St dLt dt eDLt 1 DLt ;
2
where DLt; x Lt; x Lt; x for each x 2 X denotes the jump of L at the moment t 0. Furthermore, let us assume
that the process St is independent of Rt; u, and denoted by F F t tP0 the usual ltration generated by the processes
1032
Rt; u and St. At the moment t if the insurer has wealth Ut, and invests an amount Kt of money in the stock and the
remaining reserve Ut Kt in the bond with zero interest rate, the interest force on the bond is equal to the ination force.
The wealth process Ut can be written as
Ut; u; K u ct
Z
Z
Nt
X
Xn
n1
t
Ks
dSt Rt; u
Ss
KsdLs
r2
2
Ksd~Ls:
From Lemma A8 in Goll and Kallsen [8] (see also Proposition 2.2.8 in Kostadinova [14]) we can get that ~Lt is a Lvy process
~; r
~ given by
~ 2; m
with characteristic triplet c
c~ c
~2
r2
2
mdx
1
r r
m~A mfx 2 R : e x 1 2 Ag for any Borel set A:
yL1
~
~ y yc
u
r~ 2
1
,
Z 1
x
r2
~dx y c
eyx 1 yxIfjxj61g m
r2
r2
expfye 1g 1mdx
yxIfjxj61g mdx:
y2
~ iy log Ee
~ y W
and u
y~
L1
1
1
wu; K Ps < 1:
Furthermore, we dene
w u inf wu; K:
K2K
If this inmum is attained for a certain strategy K , we will call this strategy an optimal strategy with respect to the initial
reserve u.
At the end of this section, we denote by h : R ! R the moment generating function of claim size X, shifted such that
h0 0,
hr M X r 1 EerX 1:
We will make the classical assumption that there exists r1 2 0; 1 such that hr ! 1, for r " r1 . Clearly, the function h is
increasing, convex, and continuous on 0; r1 .
1033
khr cr:
^r is called Lundberg coefcient. In the model with the investment risk process described by geometric Brownian motion and
constant investment strategies [6] obtain (1) and the largest Lundberg coefcient ^r from (2).
In this section we still adopt the classical assumption that positive net prot condition holds, namely EX < kc, and only
consider the constant investment strategies, namely, Kt A, where A is some xed constant, hence from the model
described in Section 2 we can get the following equation that the Lundberg coefcient r satises:
~ y;
khr cr u
~ y (similar to the proof of the following Lemma 3.3 we can derive the above equation;
where we assume the existence of u
~ y, please see Lemma 3.2.)
as for the discussion of the existence of u
^ such that
From Fig. 1, we can see that if we want to get the largest Lundberg coefcient, we have to look for the point y
^.
~ y takes its least value at the point y
u
First, we introduce the following notation:
Gy : c
r2
2
xmdx r2 y
1
e x 1 expfye x 1gmdx;
10
1
f :
e x 1 xtdx:
1
R 1
1
f < 1:
In the following lemma we will discuss the properties of function Gy.
We need the condition that either r 0 or m 0 holds. The condition is quite natural for the risky market.
Lemma 3.1. Either r 0 or m 0 holds, then we can get that Gy is a strictly increasing, continuous and nite function for
y 2 y ; 1 and limy!1 Gy 1, where y : inffy : Gy < 1g 6 0. Moreover, if y > 1, then limy!y Gy Gy
and limy!y Gy 1.
Proof. We write Gy as
Gy : c
r2
2
f r2 y
1
1034
lim Gy c
r2
y!y0
f r2 y0 lim
limy!y0
y!y0
1
y!y0
1
e x 1expfye x 1gmdx
e x 1expfye x 1g 1mdx:
1
Now we treat the last term. Clearly, if y 0, then the integral of the last term is zero. If y 0, then
R 1
e x 1expfye x 1g 1 has the same order as yx2 as x ! 0. Hence, by the condition 1 x2 ^ 1mdx < 1 and
Dominated Convergence Theorem we obtain that for y 2 R,
lim
y!y0
e x 1expfye x 1g 1mdx
1
1
So the last term is nite. Next, we consider the other two limits.
Notice that for any xed x 6 1; e x 1 expfye x 1g is a decreasing and non-positive function with respect to y.
R 1
Clearly, the integrand e x 1 expfye x 1g is bounded for x 6 1. It follows from the condition 1 x2 ^ 1mdx < 1
and Dominated Convergence Theorem that
0 P lim
y!y0
1
e x 1 expfye x 1gmdx
1
1
1
Jy :
e x 1 expfye x 1gmdx:
Notice that for any xed x P 1; e x 1 expfye x 1g is a decreasing and non-negative function with respect to y.
Moreover, we have that e x 1 expfye x 1g is bounded for x P 1 and y > 0. Hence, by the condition
R 1 2
x ^ 1mdx < 1 and Dominated Convergence Theorem we can get that for y0 > 0,
1
lim Jy Jy0 ;
y!y0
which is nite. These lead to y 6 0. Again notice that for any xed x P 1; e x 1 expfye x 1g is a decreasing and nonnegative function with respect to y. We only need to discuss the case y > 1. Clearly, by Dominated Convergence
Theorem we can get that for y0 > y ,
lim Jy Jy0 ;
y!y0
which is nite. Notice that Jy 1 for y < y 6 0. Hence, we can get that
lim Jy 1
y!y
lim Jy Jy :
y!y
Hence, from the discussion above and the denition of Gy, we can deduce that y 6 0; Gy is a continuous function in
y ; 1; limy!1 Gy 1, and if y > 1, then limy!y Gy Gy and limy!y Gy 1.
On the other hand, for y 2 y ; 1,
dGy
r2
dy
1
which means that Gy is strictly increasing for y 2 y ; 1. It ends the proof of lemma. h
~ y is nite and strictly convex for y 2 y ; 1, and if y > 1, then u
~ y 1 for y < y ; if y 1, then
Lemma 3.2. u
^ such that u
~ y 1 and the equation Gy 0 has a unique solution. Furthermore, there exists a unique y
~ y arrives
limy!1 u
^ and 1 < u
^ 0, and if the equation Gy 0 has a solution y , which is unique by Lemma 3.1, then
~ y
at its least value at y
^ y ; if the equation Gy 0 has no solution, then y
^ y .
y
~ y as:
Proof. In view of (9) we rewrite u
~ y yc y
u
r2
2
r2
2
y2 fy
1
expye x 1 1 ye x 1Ifjxj61g
mdx:
1035
Z 1
Z 1
expye x 1 1 ye x 1Ifjxj61g mdx
expye x 1mdx
expye x 1 1
1
1
1
Z 1
Z
expye x 1mdx
mdx:
ye x 1mdx
1
jxjP1
R1
Notice that expye 1 1 ye 1 has the same order as yx2 as x ! 0. Hence, by the condition 1 x2 ^ 1mdx < 1
we can get that the second and the last terms on the right side of the above formula are nite. Clearly, since the integrand is
R
bounded and jxjP1 mdx < 1, the rst term in the right side of the above formula is nite. We can get from the proof of
R1
R1
Lemma 3.1 that 1 e x 1 expy1 e x 1mdx < 1 for y1 > y , which means that 1 expy1 e x 1mdx < 1 for
~ y is nite for y 2 y ; 1.
y1 > y . Therefore we deduce that u
Applying (9) and Lemma 3.1 we obtain that for any y 2 y ; 1,
x
~ y @Gy
@2u
r2
@y2
@y
11
1
~ y is strictly convex in y 2 y ; 1.
Hence the function u
Let Hy expye x 1 1 ye x 1. Clearly,
dHy
e x 1 expye x 1 e x 1jy0 0
dy y0
and
2
d Hy
2
dy
e x 1 expye x 1 P 0:
Hence, for any xed x; Hy arrives at its least value at y 0. Noticing that H0 0 we get that Hy P 0 for all y. Therefore,
R1
Hydy P 0 and we can get
1
~ y P yc y
u
r2
2
r2
2
y2 fy
mdx ! 1 as y ! 1:
12
jxjP1
If y > 1, we can get from the proof of Lemma 3.1 that for y1 < y0 < y ,
e x 1 expy0 e x 1mdx 1;
expy1 e x 1mdx 1:
~ y P yc y
u
r2
2
r2
2
y2 fy
mdx ! 1 as y ! 1:
13
jxjP1
Combining (11)(13) we get that there is a unique solution y such that Gy 0 as y 1.
~
If the equation Gy 0 has solution y > y , which is unique by Lemma 3.1, then by Lemma 3.1 and @ u@yy Gy we
have
~ y
@u
@y
c
yy
r2
2
1
xmdx r2 y
e x 1 expfy e x 1gmdx 0:
14
1
^ y .
Hence, y
According to (12), (13) and Lemma 3.1 we can get that if y 1, then the equation Gy 0 has a unique solution
y > y . Hence, next we shall only discuss the case that the equation Gy 0 has a solution y y > 1, which is unique
by Lemma 3.1, or the equation Gy 0 has no solution. For the second case, we can get y > 1. If the equation Gy 0
has solution y y > 1 or the equation Gy 0 has no solution, then by Lemma 3.1 we can get that Gy > 0 for
y 2 y ; 1 and y > 1. By Lemma 3.1 and the above discussions we can get that for the two cases,
lim Gy Gy P 0:
y!y
1036
Let us recall the proof of Lemma 3.1 and get Jy < 1, which means that
~ y is nite. Therefore, for the two cases that the equation Gy 0 has solution
From the above discussions we know that u
~ y arrives its least
y y or the equation Gy 0 has no solution, in view of Gy > 0 for all y 2 y ; 1 we can get that u
value at y .
^ such that u
~ y arrives its least value at y
^. Hence, we derive that
In conclusion, we can get that there exists a y
^ 6 u
~ 0 0. h
~ y
u
^ 6 0; If EeL1 > 1, then y
^ > 0; If EeL1 1, then y
^ 0.
Corollary 3.1. If EeL1 < 1, then y
Proof. Notice that EeL1 eu1 eG0 . Hence, EeL1 < 1 implies G0 > 0. When G0 > 0, if y 0, then by Lemma 3.2
~ y arrives its least value at 0, which gives y
^ 0; if y < 0, then by Lemma 3.2 we can get y
^ < 0 as well.
we know that u
L1
L1
^ > 0. Ee 1 implies y
^ 0. h
Similarly, we can obtain that Ee > 1 implies y
^ is non-negative. In fact, y < 0 is difcult to be satised. By the proof of Lemma
Remark 3.1. For most cases, y 0. Hence, y
R1
3.1, if y < y1 < 0, we have Gy1 > 1, or equivalently, Ly1 1 e x 1expfy1 e x 1gmdx < 1. As we all know it is
difcult to be satised, except for some special measure m, e.g. m has a nite support on R or m has a distribution with a
sufciently light tail.
Lemma 3.3. There exists a unique positive number ^r such that
^;
~ y
kh^r c^r u
15
^
^y
^ ^r e^rUt;u;A
^ is dened in Lemma 3.2. Given the constant process Kt A
^=^r , the process Mt; u; A;
where y
is a martingale
w.r.t. the ltration F.
~ y
^. By virtue of Lemma
Proof. At rst we show the existence and uniqueness of ^r in Eq. (15). Dene Hr : khr cr u
^ 6 0. It can be easily checked that H0 u
^ 6 0 and H00 r > 0. Since the positive net prot condition
~ y
~ y
3.2, we have u
holds, it follows that H0 0 < 0. From the properties described above, we know that for the Eq. (15) there exists a unique positive solution.
^ has stationary independent increments. For arbitrary 0 6 s 6 t, we obtain
Notice that Ut; u; A
^
^
^
^
^
^
^ ^r jF s Ee^rUt;u;A
EMt; u; A;
jF s e^rUs;u;A Ee^rUt;u;AUs;u;A jF s e^rUs;u;A Ee^rUts;0;A :
^
^r Ut;u;A
6 ^r
^
6
Ee^rUt;u;A E6e
4
ct
Nt
X
^ ~Lt
X n A
n1
!3
Nt
X
7
6 ^r Xn 7
7
7
6
^
^^ ~
^
^
~ ^
7 erct E6e n1 7EerALt erct ekhrt euyt 1;
5
5
4
16
17
Remark 3.2. ^r given in Lemma 3.3 is the largest Lundberg coefcient for constant investment strategies, which will be
shown in the next Theorem. From Fig. 1 we know that in order to get the largest Lundberg coefcient ^r for constant invest^ is the maximum of function
~ y in (15). Lemma 3.2 shows that u
~ y
ment strategies, we need the largest positive shift u
^ in Eq. (15).
~ y. This is the reason why we choose y
u
With the help of the preceding lemmas we get the following result.
^ y^, the minimal ruin probability has upper bound e^ru for all u P 0, where
Theorem 3.1. For the constant investment strategy A
^r
^
^.
~ y
0 < r < r 1 is the positive solution of the equation kh^r c^r u
^ ^r is a martingale. The stopped process Mt ^ s; u; A;
^ ^r is the
Proof. From Lemma 3.3 we know that the process Mt; u; A;
same case. Then
^ ^r
e^ru M0; u; A;
h
i
h
i
^ ^r Ifs<tg E Mt; u; A;
^ ^rIfsPtg
E Ms; u; A;
h
i
^ ^r Ifs<tg
P E Ms; u; A;
18
19
1037
h
i
h
i
^ ^rIfs<tg E Ms; u; A;
^ ^r Ifs<1g :
lim E Ms; u; A;
20
t!1
^ Ps < 1 6 e^ru ;
Wu; A
21
^ 6 e^ru :
W u; A
2
Remark 3.3. With the characteristic triplet c; r2 ; m of Lt given by c a b2 , r b, t 0, namely, the stock price
follows geometric Brownian motion dSt Stadt bdWt, our model comes to the model described by Gaier et al.
2
^ y a2 . Therefore u
~ y
^ u
~ a2 a22 and the Eq. (15) turns into
[6]. Hence, Gy a b y, and we can get y
2b
b
b
a2
a
^
^
khr cr 2b
2 , whose solution is denoted by r . Hence we can get A 2 ^. This is consistent with the outcome obtained by
b r
Remark 3.6. When the stock price follows a geometric Brownian motion with a c r2 and b r, we have m 0 here, then
2
^ 1 and Lundberg coefcient ^r1 sat^1 a=b2 . The investment A
equation Gy 0 becomes a b y 0, the solution of which is y
^ 1 ^r1 y
^1 . Now we compare it to the model described by general Lvy process. Denote the solution of Gy 0 by y
^2 . ^r 2 satisisfy A
^
^1 0, then Gy
^2 0
es (13) and the investment is A2 . Due to the fact that the function Gy is increasing, we know if Gy
^ 1 ^r1 6 A
^ 2 ^r2 . In another word, investing the same amount of money into stock market, the model
^1 6 y
^2 , namely A
implies y
R 1 x
2
^1 0; Gy1 0 implies f 1
e 1expfy1 e x 1g
described by general Lvy process is safer. For a b y
Ijxj61 mdx 0, which means there are more positive jumps of stock price with more possibilities. It is consistent with our
R 1
intuition. We can draw the opposite conclusion when f 1 e x 1expfy1 e x 1g Ijxj61 mdx 0.
We now give some numerical examples to illustrate the result in Section 3. The parameters we set ensure that the returns
of the stock under three different models have the equal expectation and variance in unit time. We let EL1 0:5, and
VarL1 2 in each following model. We set k 0:2; c 2 in the following. There are three models for stock price as
follows:
Model 1 (Geometric Brownian motion risky process): Assume the log returns of the risky asset are modeled by
Lt at bWt:
2
Lt at bWt Q t;
t P 0;
PMt
where WttP0 is a standard Brownian motion and Q t n1 Y n ; t P 0 is given by a homogeneous Poisson process Mt
with intensity l and i.i.d. jump sizes fY n ; n P 1g with the generic random variable Y.
Kou [15] considers the case that Y has a double-exponential distribution. For the case, Y has density function
f x
c1
expfc1 jxjg;
2
c1 > 0;
x 2 R:
1038
a
b
2
b yl
2
e x 1eye
x 1
1
c1 c1 jxj
e
dx 0
2
~ y ay
u
b
b y2
y
l
2
2
eye
x 1
1
1
c1 c jxj
e 1 dx:
2
p
We set a 0:2; c1 3; b 5=6; l 0:5 in this model.
Model 3 (VG Lvy process as risky investment process, exponential distribution as the distribution of claim size): Let
claim size be distributed by Ra with a > 0 and log return of the risky asset be modeled by the variance gamma process (VG)
which was suggested by Madan and Senta [16]. A non-symmetric VG model is given by
Lt lt WYt;
t P 0;
2
where l > 0; W is a Brownian motion with drift a < 0 and variance b ; Yt is a gamma Lvy process independent of W and
satises Y1 has the same distribution as Cg; b whose density is given by
f C x
bg xg1 ebx
;
Cg
x P 0;
for parameters b; g > 0. The characteristic triplet of Y is 0; 0; mC with mC dx Ix>0 gx1 ebx dx. The mean and the variance of
2
us ls g log 1
1 2 s2
b
sa ;
b
2
s 2 R:
q 1
0
2
a2 2b b2 =gjxj
b2
ax
Adx;
mdx
exp @ 2
2
gjxj
b
b
x 2 R:
Equation Gy 0 is given by
~ y l
u
e x 1e
1
ye x 1
q 1
0
2
a2 2b b2 =gjxj
b2
ax
Adx 0:
exp @ 2
2
gjxj
b
b
x
f X x 0:75C0:5
e0:75x .
Remark 3.7. From the above two tables, we can see that: compared to the model in Gaier et al. [6], the smaller Lundberg
coefcients are obtained when the models are described by general Lvy process. That is to say, if the insurer uses geometric
Brownian motion to describe the risky market, the upper bound of ruin probability will decrease. That is to say, if the
insurance models the risky market by geometric Brownian motion, he will give a optimistic evaluation of risk. However, in
this case he will face a potential risk that is incurred by false model. It could give rise to the increase of initial capital in order
to control the risk.
Table 1
Claims follow exponential distribution.
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
^
~ y
u
^
Kt A
^r
0.2133
0.1354
0.2017
0.8449
1.5391
1.4686
0.9104
0.9069
0.9099
1039
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
^
~ y
u
^
Kt A
^r
0.2113
0.1354
0.2017
1.0372
1.8842
1.8022
0.7416
0.7409
0.7415
Lt ct rWt
DLsIfjDLsj>1g
0<s6t
xJds; dx mdxds;
22
jxj61
J is a Poisson random measure, for each Borel set B 0; 1 R n f0g; J , #ft; DLt; x 2 Bg. Since a jump size DL of L
leads to a jump size expDL 1 of ~L, by (8) we have:
Z 1
2
X
~Lt c r
e x 1Ifje x 1j61g xIfjxj61g mdx t rWt
eDLs 1IfjeDLs 1j>1g
2
1
0<s6t
Z t Z
e x 1Jds; dx mdxds
23
je x 1j61
In this section we give the applications of the results in Section 3 to the model given in Section 2, showing an asymptotic
^ and the exponent ^r . From now on, we give a smaller admissible set
optimality result for the constant investment strategy A
K1 which is the subset of K,
Mt
Z t
r2
1
Ms ^r c ^r Ks ^r 2 r2 K 2 s dt ^r r
MsKsdWt
2
2
0
0
Z 1
Z t
Ms^r Ks
xIfjxj61g e x 1Ifje x 1j61g mdx c dt
0
1
Z t
X
MsexpfKs^r eDLs 1g 1IfjeDLs 1j>1g
Mse^rX Ns 1dNs
0<s6t
Z t
Ms
24
je x 1j61
Let
Z 1
r2
1
f K; ^r : kh^r c^r ^r cKt ^rKt
xIfjxj61g e x 1Ifje x 1j61g mdx ^r Kt ^r 2 r2 K 2 t
2
2
1
Z
Z
x
x
expfKt^r e 1g 1dmx
expf^r Kte 1g1 ^r Kte x 1mdx
je x 1j>1
~ ^r Kt:
kh^r c^r u
je x 1j61
25
1040
Since kh^r kEe^rX Nt 1, the stopped process Mt ^ s can be expressed in terms of stochastic integrals as
Mt ^ s
t^s
Msf K; ^r ds ^rr
0<s6t^s
Z
Z
MsKsdWt
t^s
t^s
Ms
t^s
Ms
t^s
Msds
0
je x 1j>1
je x 1j61
t^s
t^s
Ms
je x 1j61
^rr
t^s
MsKsdWs
26
t^s
t^s
Mskds:
27
0<s6t^s
t^s
Ms
28
je x 1j>1
1
X
MT n expfKT n Y n g 1IfjY n j>1g Ift^s<T n 6T^sg :
n0
(
)
1
X
E
MT n expfKT n Y n g 1IfjY n j>1g Ift^s<T n 6T^sg jF t^s
n0
(
)
1
X
E MT n expfKT n ^rY n g 1IfjY n j>1g Ift^s<T n 6T^sg jF T n jF t^s
n0
(
1
X
MT n Ift^s<T n 6T^sg E expfKT n ^rY n g 1IfjY n j>1g jF T n jF t^s
n0
(
1
X
MT n If t ^ s < T n 6 T ^ sg
E
E
(Z
(Z
(Z
T^s
Ms
t^s
Ms
t^s
)
expfKs^r xg 1dF Y xgdsjF t^s
jxj>1
T^s
Ms
jxj>1
T^s
t^s
jxj>1
n0
Z
je x 1j>1
)
x
where from the fth to the sixth line we have used that N 1 t gt is a martingale. Hence, (28) is a local martingale w.r.t.
the stopped ltration F t^s . A standard argument [18, p. 11] shows that (32) is also a local martingale w.r.t. the
ltration F t .
In the same way, for any e > 0 small enough, we can get the process
1041
X
0<s6t^s
t^s
Ms
^r Kse x 1mdxds
e6je x 1j61
t^s
Ms
29
e6je x 1j61
t^s
Ms
je x 1j61
t^s
Ms
je x 1j61
~ ^r Kt u
~ y
^ u
~ ^rKt P u
~ y
^ u
~ y
^ 0:
f K; ^r kh^r c^r u
30
R T^s
Therefore t^s Msf K; ^r ds P 0 for all 0 6 t 6 T. Putting the pieces from (24) together, it is can be easily concluded that
Mt ^ s is a local submartingale. In fact, Mt ^ s is a true submartingale if Mt ^ s is uniform integrable. We identify the
uniform integrable of Mt ^ s to complete the proof.
Using the notation M , suptP0 jMt ^ sj, we get that
31
The second inequality holds since Ms; u; K; ^r is equal to 1 on fs < 1; Us 0g and Ms P 1 on fs < 1; Us > 0g.
The event fs < 1; Us 0g means that ruin occurs a.s. through the Brownian motion, and fs < 1; Us > 0g means that
ruin occurs through a jump. Event fs < 1; Us > 0g can be decomposed into
32
Now we simulate the proof of Theorem 4 in Gaier et al. [6].When Vdt is the probability distribution of s t and Hdt; dy
R1
denotes the joint probability distribution of s t, Us y > 0, a claim has distribution function dF X z= y dF X u (for
z > y). we have
33
I1
sup
yP0
Hdt; dy
Z
y
Z
y
^ryv
dF v
R1 X
6
dF X u
y
supyP0
Z
y
^r yv
dF v
R1 X
dF X u
y
!Z
0
Hdt; dy
dF X v
e^ryv R 1
<1
dF X u
y
34
and
h
i
h
i
DLs
DLs
I2 E e^rUsKse 1 jA2 E e^rUsKse 1 jKs > 0; DLs < 0; KseDLs 1 > Us
h
i
DLs
6 E e^rUsCe 1 jKs > 0; DLs < 0; KseDLs 1 > Us
6 E e^rUsC jKs > 0; DLs < 0; KseDLs 1 > Us < 1
35
The second inequality in (35) holds because eDLs 1 > 1. The last equality follows by the fact of Us P 0.
A standard argument, gives that Mt ^ s; u; K; ^r is a uniformly integrable submartingale. h
Lemma 4.2. If X has uniform exponential moment in the tail distribution for ^r , and we further assume that the size of claim is a
random variable that is nondegenerate at zero. Then for any K 2 K1 and u 2 R ,the stopped wealth process Ut ^ s; u; K converges
almost surely on fs 1g to innity for t ! 1.
1042
Proof. The proof of Lemma is trivial, because any uniformly integrable submartingale converges. That the limit on
cannot be nite follows readily from the BorelCantelli Lemma.
^ h
With the help of the two preceding lemmas we can nally prove the optimality of investment strategy A.
s<1
Theorem 4.1. Assume that the conditions in Lemma 4.1 are satised.Then the ruin probability satises, for every admissible
K 2 K1 ,
Wu; K P C 1 e^rx :
36
where
C1
1
:
supyP0 Ee^ryX jX > y
h
i
EMs; u; K; ^r EMs; u; K; ^r js < 1Ps < 1 E lim Ms; u; K; ^r js 1 Ps 1
t!1
37
Wu; K P e^ru
1
P C 1 e^ru :
EMs; u; K; ^rjs < 1Ps < 1
38
t 0:
39
We have
dBt dBtdt;
t > 0;
B0 1;
40
r
dSt Std~Lt StdLt dt eDLt 1 DLt;
2
2
t > 0;
S0 1;
41
At each instant of time an initially xed fraction h 2 0; 1 of wealth is invested in the risky asset and the fraction 1 h into
the riskless asset. This strategy is dynamic in the sense that it requires a rebalance of the portfolio at any moment of time
which depends on the corresponding price changes. This approach is based on self-nancing portfolios and hence is classical
in nancial portfolio optimization. The fraction h is called the investment strategy. Let Lt be a Lvy process with characteristic triplet c; r2 ; m. Denoted by EL the solution of the following equation
dZt ZtdLt;
Z0 1:
42
The process Z EL is called the stochastic exponential or DolansDade exponential of L. Proposition 8.21 in Tankov and
Cont [20] gives the existence and uniqueness of EL.
Next we follow the way used by Klppelberg and Kostadinova [13] to introduce the integrated risk process (IRP) as the
result of the insurance business and the net gains of the investment through a stochastic differential equation (SDE).
Denition 5.1. For an investment strategy h 2 0; 1, we call the solution to the SDE
t P 0;
U h 0 u;
43
PNt
Lh t 1 hddt hd~Lt; ~
Lt satises that E~L e ; At n1 X n is the total
the integrated risk process (IRP), where d^
claim amount process, d > 0 is the riskless interest rate.
Provided that the insurance and the investment processes are independent, by Lemma 2.2 in Klppelberg and
Kostadinova [13] the solution to the SDE (8) is
Lt
Z t
U h t eLh t u
eLh v cdv dAv ;
1043
44
Z
r2
ch ch 1 h d h log1 he x 1Ifj log1he x 1j61g hxIfjxj61g mdx;
2
R
r2h h2 r2 ;
mh A mfx 2 R : log1 he x 1 2 Ag for any Borel set A R:
45
V h u eLh t U h t
t P 0:
46
Kostadinova [14] studies the tail behavior of the ultimate integrated risk for the discounted net loss process, namely
1
PV 1
h > x, where V h lim V h t. If the order of the nite moment of the claim-size distribution is greater than jh , then
t!1
the extreme of nancial risk determines the tail behavior of the ultimate integrated risk for the discounted net loss process.
It is dened as dangerous investment. If the distribution function of claim sizes has a regularly varying tail with tail index
a < 0 and a < jh , the extreme of insurance risk determines the tail behavior of the ultimate integrated risk for the discounted net loss process. They called this case as dangerous claims.
Kostadinova [14] considers a risk measure which is frequently used in practice-Value-at-Risk (VaR) and dened in the
framework of the integrated risk model. And they study the optimal strategy that maximizes the expected wealth of the
insurance company under a risk constraint on the Value-at-Risk. The optimization problem is given as follows:
47
for a given constraint C > 0 on the risk, and a given small probability b. The set H contains all reasonable investment strategies. They provide and compare several methods for an approximation of the optimal investment strategy.
In fact, insurers pay more attention to their future nite time risk, for example, ten years, twenty years, and can change
initial capitals by introducing new stock holders or adding the shares of their companies and adding or decreasing premiums
according to the insurers management situations. In this section, we consider the optimal investment strategy under a risk
constraint on the Value-at-Risk for nite time.
Denote the most net loss before some xed nite time T by V h : sup06t6T V h t. We give the denition of risk measure by
Value-at-Risk, which takes the unied consideration of risk during 0; T.
Denition 5.2. VaR is dened as some high quantile of the corresponding loss distribution:
48
where b 2 0; 1 is some (typically small) probability. Since denition 2 has been given, we give the following optimization
model.
Model A.
max EU h T
h20;1
subject to VaRb V h 6 C;
for a given constraint C > 0 on the risk, some xed time period T > 0 and a given small probability b.
If we dene the ruin probability up to the time T by
for some 0 6 t 6 Tg
49
equivalently,
wu; T P sup V h t > u :
06t6T
max EU h T
h20;1
50
1044
Thus we can consider VaRb V h as the least initial capital that the insurer should prepare such that the nite time ruin
probability is no more than b. As it is hard or even impossible to solve model A analytically, our goal is to provide approximate method to obtain the solution. Heyde and Wang [10] investigate the nite time ruin probability for the integrated risk
model under the condition that claims have regularly varying tails. They give the equivalent formula of nite time ruin
probability and nd an interesting phenomenon that the extreme of insurance risk dominates the extreme of nancial risk
even for the case of dangerous investment.
First, we introduce a class of heavy-tailed distribution, which is crucial for our purpose. We say that a distribution function F X x has a regularly varying tail with tail index a < 0, denoted by F X x 2 Ra . If there is some slowly varying function
L
such that
51
52
h;a
when fh 2 0; 1 : Juh; a P FX Cg is non-empty set,where Juh; a kexpbuuh;
aT1. If ua 1 d P ua holds: Then there
h 2 0; 1 maximizing Juh; a. FX C 6 Ju^
h; a implies h h2 , otherwise fh 2 0; 1 : Juh; a P FX Cg is empty set,
exists ^
Juh; a FX C:
53
Juh; a.
maximizes
FX C 6 Ju1; a
implies
h 1,
otherwise
Proof. See Lemma 3.4.4 in [14]. If c kEX holds and u1 > d, then the function EU h t is increasing in h. Consequently,
the portfolio optimization model A is equivalent to
54
Due to Theorem 2.1. in [10], if F X x 2 Ra , then we can get that for every xed T > 0,
wx; T
k1 expuh; aT
F X x; x ! 1:
uh; a
55
kexpuh; aT 1
F X x 6 b 6 C :
max h 2 0; 1 : inf x 2 R :
uh; a
56
By the fact that expuh; aT 1 and uh; a have the same sign, and FX x is continuous and decreasing, we have:
kexpuh; aT 1
buh; a
F X x 6 b inf x 2 R : FX x 6
inf x 2 R :
kexpuh; aT 1
uh; a
b
u
h;
a
F1
;
X
kexpuh; aT 1
57
Noticing that F 1
X x is decreasing, we substitute (57) in (56), then (52) holds.
For notational reasons, we let Juh; a buh; a=kexpuh; aT 1.
Next, we consider the properties of uh; a. Lemma 3.2.5. in [14] tells us that uh; a is strictly convex in h if d < u1 and
@
u0; a u1 da < 0. we can nd h^ which is the point that uh; a gets the least value. By (45), we have:
@h
uh; a d h c
r2
2
d
r2
2
aa 1h2
a
1 he x 1
1 ahxIfjxj61g mdx;
58
1
notice that
Z 1
x
@
r2
u1; a c d a r2 aa 1 a
e 1ea1x xIfjxj61g mdx aua 1 ua d:
@h
2
1
59
@
If @h
u1; a P 0, equivalently, ua 1 d P ua, there exists ^h 2 0; 1 minimizing the function uh; a; If
ua 1 d < ua; uh; a is decreasing in h when h 2 0; 1.
1045
We also have,
@
bexpuh; aT 1 buh; aT expuh; aT
Juh; a
:
@u
kexpuh; a 12
It is easily checked that
60
@
J
@u
decreasing in uh; a.
Thus, under the condition ua 1 d P ua, there exists ^
h 2 0; 1 maximizing the function Juh; a. If
F X C 6 Ju^
h; a, otherwise, fh 2 0; 1 : Juh; a P FX Cg is empty set. then equation Juh; a FX C has two
solutions h1 6 h2 by the properties of function J. By comparing Ju1; a and FX C, if Ju1; a < FX C, then h h2 ; if
Ju1; a < FX C, then h 1.
On the other hand, for ua 1 d < ua; Juh; a increases in h 2 0; 1 and arrives at its most value at h 1, If
FX C 6 Ju1; a, otherwise, fh 2 0; 1 : Juh; a P FX Cg is empty set, then equation Juh; a FX C has a unique
solution h1 2 0; 1. we have h 1. The proof ends.
The next corollary shows how the optimal strategy h changes depends on T. h
Corollary 5.1. The optimal strategy h given in Theorem 5.1 is decreasing with the increasing of T.
Proof. Given 0 < T 1 < T 2 , we have:
h 2 0; 1 :
buh; a
buh; a
6 FX C h 2 0; 1 :
6 FX C :
kexpuh; aT 2 1
kexpuh; aT 1 1
61
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