Table of Content

1. Research Project Team

2. Introduction

3. Project Methodology

4. Some General Traffic Trends

5. Quantification of Congestion Levels

11

6. Quantification of Traffic Congestion Cost

13

7. Conclusion

17

8. Acknowledgement

17

1. Research Project Team

Research Team from NED University of Engineering and Technology

1. Prof. Dr. Mir Shabbar Ali (Principal Investigator of the T-RTC Project, and
Chairman, Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering, NED University)

2. Dr. Muhammad Adnan (Co-Principal Investigator of the T-RTC Project, and

Associate Professor, Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering, NED
University)
3. Mr. Zafar Iqbal (Senior Traffic Cell Manager, T-RTC Project)

4. Syed Fazal Abbas Baqueri (Research Assistant, T-RTC Project)

5. Syed Muhammad Noman (Research Assistant, T-RTC Project)

6. Mr. Talha Shakeel Mallick (Traffic Cell Manager, T-RTC Project)

From Indus Motor Company Ltd participated as Key Stakeholder

1. Mr. Parvez Ghias (Chief Executive Officer, IMC)
2. Mr. Babar Salim (Manager Planning & Research, IMC)
3. Mr. Muhammad Arshad (Assistant Manager HR & CSR, IMC)

Other Stakeholder participated in the Project

Mr. Niaz Siddiki (Former DIG, Sind Police)

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2. Introduction
2.1

Motivation

Congestion on roads is a phenomenon that occurred when traffic volume is approaching

capacity of the road section. Travelers and commuters experiencing this phenomenon on
daily basis while commuting for different activities at different times of day. Congestion on
the roads of Karachi is worse than many other cities in the world, and it may get worse year
by year. According to recent JICA study, Traffic growth in Karachi is following an
exponential path. Currently there are 1.3 million vehicles are registered in Karachi (that
almost constitute half of the National total). Private vehicle (mainly cars and motorcycles)
ownership is increasing at annual growth rate of 9% and it has been estimated that around
300 vehicles are added on the road of Karachi every day. This significant increase in vehicle
ownership indicates a marginally better condition of economy, however, on the other hand
road network of Karachi experiencing significant decrease in their performance level because
of traffic delays. Government officials have planned several key road developmental projects
and also CDGK has proposed a mass transit plan till 2030 to improve traffic situation of
Karachi with cooperation of JICA, but nature of traffic growth is such that it is growing faster
than the road capacity. So the occurrence of the phenomenon of congestion will be long
lasting. This situation demands for adopting such sustainable policies and strategies which
are vital to reduce congestion, however, the effectiveness of these policies is entirely
dependent on appropriate quantification of congestion cost. It is therefore vital that as a first
step, to conduct such a program or study through which a value of traffic congestion is
estimated.
Under the circumstances, Indus Motor Company Limited (IMC) took an initiative as a key
stakeholder and commissioned a research study, first time of its kind in Pakistan, engaging
NED University to quantify the economic cost of traffic congestion on selected road of
Karachi. This chapter presents an overall framework of the research methodology to carry out
the different tasks involved in order to achieve relevant objectives of the proposed research.
2.2 Study Objectives and Overall Framework
The key objectives of research study are as follows:

To ascertain the level of congestion through key traffic parameters of a selected road
of Karachi
To quantify the cost of congestion as a general estimate incorporating all travelers of
a selected road.

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Quantification of the congestion cost as a general estimate is useful in a sense that it provides
the measure of economic burden on the road user which travelling on a particular road, and
any improvement through Transport demand management strategies or capacity improvement
can be easily justified based on their cost and benefits. Based on the objectives mentioned
above, this research study is focused on determining an overall congestion cost incurred
collectively by all road users. Important steps that are involved to achieve the objectives of
this research are selection of a stretch of road and collection of traffic volume data on daily
basis for 24hrs. This can be done by installing video cameras at key points and then
processing obtained video clips for extraction of key parameters e.g. free flow speed, traffic
volume, avg. speed of vehicles and avg. travel time. In order to estimate the cost of
congestion, questionnaire based survey exercise was performed to determine how travelers
value their time. Usually an indirect method is used that involve estimation of discrete choice
model for mode choice, this model contain parameters such as travel cost and travel time and
ratio of their co-efficient is termed as value of time. However, the great concern is that
economic condition of travelers is significantly heterogeneous, a use of single value of time
for quantification of congestion cost may be inappropriate. It is therefore necessary that in a
survey, a representative sample of travelers need to be considered based on their economic
class. In this research, some the congestion cost can be estimated for some key scenarios as
well that are based on particular transport improvement interventions.

3. Project Methodology
The project methodological framework encompassed the data collection, data processing,
data analysis and the final step of congestion estimation and valuation. Figure-1 presents this
framework.
The project study area selected is located on one of the busiest routes of Karachi having
different significant characteristics. It is the highway feeding to all the industries located in
the BQATI and LATI area. This highway also leads to Hyderabad city and interior Sindh.
The oil terminal port is also located in this stretch. To add to it, this stretch also experiences
high amount traffic accidents (Road Traffic Incident, 2010). Furthermore, this stretch has
never been functioning at its design speed, which is in any case no less than 70Km/Hr. All
this, adds significantly to the justification of selecting this as the case for traffic congestion
study presented in this report. The selected stretch is in between the two intersections i.e. Star
Gate at Sharah-e-Faisal (starting point) and Pakistan Steel Mill (ending point). A total of nine
points of representative locations were selected that included Star Gate and Steel Mill as well.
The remaining constitutes seven (7) intersections and two (2) mid links.
A total of nine points were selected on the stretch for the traffic data collection. These points
included the intersections as well as mid-links. They were selected so as to incorporate the
diverse attributes exists within the area of study. For instance, the Malir Halt (2) stop was
used by many pedestrians throughout the day which had its direct impact on the motorized
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transport. Considering only the area between Star Gate (1) and Malir-15 Stop (4), the
localities slightly shifts as the Star Gate is widespread urban locality up to the Malir-15 Stop.
The Malir-15 Stop has lost a very large area of the road due to encroachments, thus
delimiting its stretch to two (2) usable lanes. The Quaidabad mid-link was selected as it is no
more a typical urban area, as represented by the points before this. The sixth stop is the YB
Chowrangi (6), commonly referred as Manzil Pump Stop. It links the Landhi Industrial Area
with the National Highway and in continuation to the Port Qasim region. Likewise,
advancing towards Port Qasim, The FAST University point (7) was the optimal mid-link
point between the YB (6) and Bin Qasim intersection (8). The next two points are Bin Qasim
(8) and Pakistan Steel (9) Intersections located on National Highway. It was also kept in view
that the distance between these points must be within range, so as to divide the 20km stretch
in not so large neither so small intervals. The last two points are purely industrial
intersections.
Data Collection

Data Processing

Data Analysis
Congestion Estimation and its
Valuation

Figure 1:

Table 1:

No.

Geographical Location

Project Methodological framework

Data Collection Points

Classification

Justification

Star Gate

Intersection

Geometrical Intersection/ Start Point

Malir Halt

Intersection

The geometrical intersection

Malir Kalaboard

Intersection

The geometrical intersection

End of Quaidabad Bridge

Manzil Pump

FAST University Stop

Bin Qasim Port

8
9

Mid Link Point

Linking Urban and Industrial Area

Intersection

The geometrical intersection

Mid Link Point

Span for smooth traffic flow

Intersection

The geometrical intersection

Bin Qasim

Mid Link Point

Span for smooth traffic flow

Steel Mill

Intersection

T-RTC Brief Research Report

The geometrical intersection/ End

Point

Page 4

3.1 Data Collection and Processing

For the analysis of the study area it was very much necessary to have sufficient amount of
data set to perform an effective study which can produce such results on which sound
decisions can be made. The quality of study depends on the amount and types of data, larger
the amount data and different type of data make your study effective and closer to the real
scenario because the clear picture of the study area is revealed only when you have a large
number of data represented the study points.

Data Collection Survey

Traffic
Volume
Survey

Delay
Estimation
Survey
Figure 2:

Spot Speed
Survey

Value of Time
Survey

Data Collection phases

The traffic volume data collection, towards the process of congestion estimation, was the
most essential task among the data collection process. The instrumented vehicle carried the
traffic surveillance cameras along with Digital Video Recorder (DVR) for storing the videos
of all cameras simultaneously with its respective time of accuracy up to per second. The
timings was divided into two phases, morning and evening phase with its time interval
between 8:00am to 1:00pm and 3:00pm to 8:00pm respectively. The morning and evening
data hours were considered so as to record the peak traffic hours. The data at each point was
collected for two days, to counter effect the variations.

Traffic Volume data

Instrumented Vehicle

Camera Holding
Assembly
Figure 3:

Traffic Surveilliance
Cameras

Digital Video
Recorder

Generator for
Power Supply

Traffic Volume Data Collection Methodology and Instrumented Vehicle

The delay study articulates about the delay faced by the vehicles while commuting. This
study conducted on the study area with the help of test vehicle running on the route (from
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Star Gate to Pakistan Steel) to identify the delay causing points as their reasons. Delay is
considered whenever the speed of the vehicle goes below the reference speed. The reference
speed can be taken as the design speed or any achievable speed on the track. The delay time
was calculated according to various reference speeds which were 20, 30, 40, 50 and
60Km/Hr. respectively. Delay is measure in minutes or seconds, the deduction in speed is
caused by many reasons which were detected during survey. Special emphasizes were given
on the accuracy of the delay data thus it was calculated manually as well as through Vehicle
Tracker device installed in an instrumented vehicle. The Figure below shows the delay data
collection methodology.

Delay Survey

Methodology

Analysis

Manual delay
Survey

Difference
Reference
Speeds

Reasons
causing
delays

Urban and
Industrial area
analysis

Delay causing
points

Reference Speed
20 Km/Hr
30 Km/Hr
40 Km/Hr
50 Km/Hr

Tracker
Database

60 Km/Hr
Figure 4:

Results

Delay Survey

For accurateness the survey of spot speed was also performed besides, this exercise was
accomplished with Laser Speed Gun (LSG) which gives the speed of each kilometer travel.
The spot speed survey will illustrate about the variation in the speed as the vehicle travels
from the Star Gate towards Pakistan Steel and vice versa. It also assists in identifying the
speed variation with regard to time. To add to it, the black spots with respect to speed can
also be identified.
Value of Time (VOT) estimation methodology is based on a questionnaire survey which is
used to model commuters mode choice for their daily trips. Multinomial logit model is
estimated for this purpose in which modal cost and modal travel time parameters are used.
The ratio of the co-efficient of these parameters provides VOT value for individuals choosing
different types of travel mode. The BIOGEME has been used to estimate these models. To
achieve this objective, the survey was conducted at several spots along the study area. This
comprised of the road-side interview, people visiting Petrol, CNG pumps and also passengers
travelling in public buses. The snapshots below are taken during the conduct of the survey at
various industries and at road-side. Some are shown as Figure-5.

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Figure 5:

VOT Questionnaire Survey at Road side and industries

4. Some General Traffic Trends

The analysis of traffic volume data revealed various facts through inclinations, drifts and
floats. The analysis of traffic volume data describes the trend of different significant values,
like variation of data along the stretch, location and time. The Figure-6 shows the hourly
volume of all vehicles on the urban and industrial area on study stretch having four mid-link
in each. The traffic hourly flow observed in Figure-6 were approximately from Airport to
Malir Kalaboard and then slightly very from Kalaboard to Malir-15. The highest peak found
in urban area was in evening. Similarly in industrial area shown in Figure-6 there was no
sharp peak observed but three mild peak were perceive in three different timing; morning,
afternoon and evening. This shows that the morning peak is of incoming timing of job second
is lunch and other official activity and the third one is outgoing timing from job afterwards
the volume decreases continuously.
A drift in vehicle modes was seen in the urban and the industrial area as more number of
private vehicles was found in the urban zone while oil tankers and trawlers comprised huge
percentage in the industrial zone. This is also seconded by intuition as tankers hub along with
the pumping station near the industrial stretch upsurges their movement while the absence of
residential area and other local facilities clarifies the reduction in the private-vehiclemovement. In contrary to it, the presence of educational institutes, commercial centers, user
facilities and high density residential units increase the amount of private vehicles users over
the stretch. In the urban area, amongst these modes the private vehicles constitute the most of
it with bikes having the greatest share of the percentage in total and following it are the cars
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see Figure-7. The reasons behind this are the easy affordability and relaxed on-installments
availability of bikes for all. Public buses comprises up to one-fifteenth portion of the total
modes. On the contrary, within the industrialized zone premises the percentage of bikes
shrinks to less than 10 percent whereas trucks and trawlers constitute nearly one-half of the
traffic. This can be seen graphically below in Figure-7.
Time based volume ( Industrial )

Time based Volume (Urban)

4000

Volume (per hour)

Volume(per hour)

5000
4000
3000
2000
1000

3000
2000
1000
0
7 -8 9 -10 11 - 13 - 15 - 17 - 19 - 21 12 14 16 18 20 22

0
7 -8 9 -10 11 - 13 - 15 - 17 - 19 - 21 12 14 16 18 20 22

QUAIDABAD TO MAZIL PUMP

AIRPORT TO MALIR HALT

MAZIL PUMP TO FAST UNI

MALIR HALT TO KALABOARD

KALABOARD TO MALIR 15

FAST UNI TO PORT QASIM

MALIR 15 TO QUAIDABAD

PORT QASIM TO PAKISTAN STEEL

Figure 6:

Animal
Carts
0%
Cycles
0%

Rikshaw
0%
Trollers
14%

Volume per hour on different times of day

Cars
28%

Cycles
0%

Rikshaw
4%

Animal
Carts
0%

Trucks
8%

Car
33%

suzuki
10%
Trucks
28%

Trollers
0%

Buses
14%
Bikes
7%
Suzuki
11%

Figure 7:

Buses
12%

bikes
31%

Percentage Mode share in Urban Area (left) and Industrial Area (right).

After the analysis of the delay data the total average delay faced in study area is largely
occurred in urban area and less in industrial area. Figure-8 shows the delay percentage
occurred. It is also to be noted that approximately the 40% of study stretch is urban and 60%
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is industrial so the influence of industrial area is greater in study area. The length of study
stretch is about 20 Km and the length comes under urban zone is about 7.6 Km and 12.4 Km
in industrial zone.
This study also aims to identify the causes that create the delay in the traffic. The
observations of reason of delays were taken during the survey conducted in various timing of
day. There are number of reasons that were highlighted during the survey. The common
reason of traffic stream delay was the improper implementation of traffic control measure,
like Signal delay, road width bottle neck, illegal parking these reason are frequently observed
in the study stretch. Table-2 shows the reasons of delay along the study stretch and there
contribution on the total delay. The delay reason distinguished on the basis of delay
occurrence in the test run of vehicle in the survey the technique of performing survey
discussed earlier in Section-2.
Table 2: Data Collection Points

REASON

WEIGHTAGE %

Urban Area
Encroachment at Malir 15 intersection
Railway line Hump near Malir Halt
Others
Access point
Encroachment at Ganchi market
Bottleneck/decrease in ROW near Murghi Khana
Bridge construction
Kalaboard Intersection
Illegal parking of oil tankers after FAST University
Expansion joint on Malir River bridge
U-Turn / Manual controlling
Malir Halt intersection

Percentage Delay
34.34
9.96
7.24
4.41
3.98
3.56
2.70
1.78
1.40
1.37
0.16
0.14

Urban Area

Industrial Area

23%

77%

Industrial Area
Illegal parking of oil tankers/ distresses after PQ
Access point for HMV
Improper traffic management at Manzil Pump
Quaidabad bridge end/ Bus Stop
Bin Qasim intersection
Deteriorated road/ Heavy vehicle movement

17.48
3.18
2.44
2.35
1.92
1.58

Figure 8:
Percentage of delay
occurred in urban and industrial area

All the data from the questionnaire survey, which was comprised of about 1,000 samples was
fed into the BIOGEME to estimate multinomial model. The estimated model is based on
two parameters travel time and travel cost. The VOT obtained for class of commuters
travelling in different transport modes is summarized in Table-3. The obtained values of VOT
are compared with research conducted in India in 2009, where for average individual person

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this is estimated as Rs 70/hr (Pakistan Rupee). In Bangladesh, for Dhaka city, the average
VOT has been found equivalent to Rs 70/hr (Pakistan Rupee).
Table 3: Value of time for different Modes

MODES

VOT

CAR

87

Taxi

80

Office Vans

75

Three- Wheeler

60

Bike

44

Public Transport

34

Vehicle operating cost, in complaint to traffic congestion has always been an underestimated
parameter. The data for vehicle operating cost model involves vehicle modes and their fuel
consumption rate. This requires, as mentioned above, test runs of each vehicle modes to get
the fuel consumption rate per hour. The runs were conducted separately for the various types
of fuels used by vehicle. For this study, consumption of fuel is considered as only factor
contributing towards vehicle operating cost. Data has been collected for this purpose for
different types of mode prevailing on the road stretch. Fuel consumption has been determined
for each type of mode and then conversion has been made to obtain unit values such as
Rs/min. Table-4 presents these values for each type of mode.

Table 4: Fuel Consumption (Rs. /min) for different Modes

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5. Quantification of Congestion Levels

There were three different criterion selected to describe the facility which includes Level of
Service (LOS), Road Condition Index (RCI) and Travel Time Index (TTI) these all parameter
were used to somehow quantify level of traffic congestion.
According HCM 2000, the computation of LOS through travel speed measured by the
following Table, which describe the level of service of urban street, classified by the FFS of
the facility. The LOS computed through this technique come out, LOS D for urban area and
LOS C for industrial area see Table-5. After wards the overall level of service provided by
the facility is come out D.
Table 5:

Urban Street Class

LOS estimation through speed [1]

I

Range of Free-flow speed (FFS)

Typical FFS
LOS
A
B
C
D
E
F

90 to 70
km/h
80 km/h
>72
>56-72
>40-56
>32-40
>26-32
>26

II

III

IV

70 to 55
55 to 50
55 to 40
Km/h
km/h
km/h
65 km/h
55 km/h
45 km/h
Average Travel Speed (km/h)
>59
>50
>41
>46-59
>39-50
>32-41
>33-46
>28-39
>23-32
>26-33
>22-28
>18-23
21-26
>17-22
>14-18
>21
>17
>14

Table 6: Computed LOS for study area

Study Stretch

FFS (km/h)

Urban Area
Industrial Area
Complete Area

80
80
80

Urban Street
Class
I
I
I

Average Travel
Speed (km/h)
34
52
40

LOS
D
C
D

Roadway congestion index is a determinate to measure the difference between the actual
traffic volume and the roadway capacity. It demonstrates the loading condition of the road
due to traffic. For instance, a Roadway Congestion Index (RCI) of less than 1 describes that
operating conditions to be feasible, whereas any value exceeding one explicitly illustrates the
link to be overloaded and encumbered as it exceeds further. The Table below shows the
calculation for our study stretch and the Road Condition Index (RCI) was found to be 2.36.

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Table 7: showing the RCI values for the stretch

Actual Volume
(Veh/h)

Link Length
(km)

Star Gate to Malir Halt

3,738

2.10

3.16

Malir Halt to Kalaboard

3,999

0.90

3.18

Kalaboard to Malir 15
Malir 15 to Quaidabad

3,076
3,074

0.70

2.90

3.70

1.96

Quaidabad to Manzil Pump

Manzil Pump to FAST
University
FAST University To Port

2,366

1.90

1.89

2,137

3.90

1.50

5,475

4.00

1.68

Qasim
Port Qasim to Pakistan Steel

998

2.80

0.97

Link Name

RCI

Average
RCI

2.36

The ratio of travel time in peak hours to the travel time in free flow condition is called travel
time index. First the travel time index of each individual midblock is calculated and then the
average is taken to calculate the overall travel time index of the study area. Average travel
time of each midblock is obtained with the help of average car technique, which was
performed to estimate the total delay faced while travelling. The Table shown below
represents the travel time index of the study spots in the given stretch on national highway
from the Star Gate to Pakistan Steel. Approximately all the spots having similar travel time
index (TTI) 1.75.
Table 8; Table showing travel time index.

Free Flow Time

(min)

Actual Time (min)

TTI

Star Gate to Malir Halt

1.80

3.15

1.91

Malir Halt to Kalaboard

0.77

1.35

1.62

Kalaboard to Malir 15

0.60

1.05

1.75

Malir 15 to Quaidabad

3.17

5.55

1.82

Quaidabad to Manzil Pump

1.63

2.85

1.95

Manzil Pump to FAST University

3.34

5.85

1.55

FAST University To Port Qasim

3.43

6.00

1.65

Port Qasim to Pakistan Steel

2.40

4.20

1.73

Overall

17.00

30.00

1.75

Midblock

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6. Quantification of Congestion Cost

The quantification of traffic congestion is the eventual outcome of this project. It imitates the
tangible upshot of the damage due to traffic congestion. The total traffic congestion cost
quantification also includes indirect cost of traffic congestion, besides the direct cost of
congestion as mentioned above. This indirect cost comprises of the loss to business and
industries, ecological injuries and environmental degradation. In this study, indirect cost is
not the focus, however, attempt has been made to find direct cost of traffic congestion, which
comprises of vehicle operating cost and opportunity cost.
The estimated VOT values are utilised to measure opportunity cost component of traffic
congestion cost. Fuel efficiency and fuel consumption data for different types of modes,
prevailing in that road stretch, was gathered to estimate vehicle operating cost component of
traffic congestion cost. Equation (1) and (2) represents the expressions utilised to compute
opportunity and vehicle operating costs.

(1)

Where, OC= Opportunity Cost of traffic congestion, VOT = Value of time for specific mode
m, Delay =travel delay in time units observed for mode m (estimated at some reference
speed), V =number of vehicles of type m per day, Vocc = Average vehicle occupancy for
specific modem.

"

(2)

Where, VOC= Vehicle operating Cost, FC = Fuel cost in Rs/hr for specific mode m, V and
Delay have the same meaning mentioned earlier and L= length of stretch in Km. Where,
FC is calculated using equation (3).
"

,'( %" &

'(

") '(

* '( +

(3)

Where, Fcq = Fuel consumption quantity in litres/km or Kg/km of specific mode m, Fp/0 =
fuel price of specific fuel types Ft = 1, 2 and 3 such as CNG, Gasoline and Diesel,
respectively in Rs./litres or Rs/kg. /0 =proportion of specific mode type m using a particular
fuel type for travelling on that road stretch.

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The collected data was compiled according to the parameters described in equations (1), (2)
and (3). The average values of the volume collected at 9 different locations were given in
Table-9 in vehicle/hour. The Table-9 also provides observed values of vehicle occupancy for
each different type of mode travelling on the stretch of the segment. The travel mode, bike
(motorcycles) contributed largely in the traffic stream and then all other vehicle types.
Table 9. Classified volume and vehicle occupancy

Volume
(vehicle / hour)

Modes

Vehicle Occupancy

Car

1,237

2.20

Taxi

200

3.20

Office Van

407

13.00

Three Wheeler

180

2.00

1,424

1.20

Public Transport

555

38.00

Truck

494

4.00

Bike

Table-10 describes the average speed of classified modes on that road stretch. The road is
classified as major urban arterial road, which basically fulfills the purpose of mobility and the
design speed is around 110 km/hr. The average speed of the road clearly depicting the
prevailing condition of the arterial that is partly due to the deteriorated pavement structure
and partly due to the increased demand, both of these factors in combination creating frequent
traffic jams along the road stretch. Table-2 also shows estimated travel delays for each
representative travel mode at two reference speeds (i.e. 20km/hr and 30km/hr). The Table
demonstrates that the delay of a particular mode and reference speed is directly proportional
but the increment of delay is not similar among modes which describe the mobility
characteristic of that mode.
Table 10. Average speed and average delay under reference speed.
Modes

Car
Taxi
Office Van
Three Wheeler
Bike
Public Transport
Truck

Average
Speed

Avg. Delay (Min/

Veh)

(Km/ hr)

at ref. speed 20kph

50
45
42
28
35
29
26

8
8
9.5
6.5
4
13.9
16.8

T-RTC Brief Research Report

Avg. Delay (Min/ Veh)

Avg. Delay (Min/ Veh)

at ref. speed 30kph

at ref. speed 40kph

10
11
12.4
30
10
19.3
30

11
13
13
35
30
38
40

Page 14

The value of time was also estimated in this study using an indirect approach, more details of
this can be seen in Section-3 of this report, however, VOT values are shown with respect to
mode users in Table-11. Average fuel consumption quantity of classified modes and their
proportions (i.e. 1, 2, 3) are also shown in same Table. Fuel consumption quantities are
estimated by running various test vehicles of same mode type on the road stretch. The
proportions of vehicles using different fuel type is determined based on physical examination
of various travel modes based on sample size of 300 vehicle of each mode type.
Table 11: Vehicle classified VOT with -factor and fuel consumption quantity.

Modes

VOT
(Rs/hr)

FcqCNG FcqGasoline FcqDiesel

(kg/km)
(lt/km)
(lt/km)

Car

87

0.56

0.44

17-19

10-12

Taxi

80

0.63

0.37

18-20

10-12

Office Van

75

0.57

0.43

10-11

7-8

Three Wheeler

60

0.79

0.21

28-30

25

Bike

44

55-60

Public Transport

34

0.59

0.41

6-8

2-4

Truck

35

1-2

The results shown in Tables 1, 2 & 3 are utilized in quantifying the level of congestion and
traffic congestion cost using Equations (1), (2) and (3). As shown in Table-2 above, time loss
for average vehicle type is approximately 20 minutes/trip using conservative definition of
delay (i.e. 40km/hr reference speed) along with the volume of traffic which is 100,000
vehicles/day. On these bases, total delay was found out to be 20,000,000 minutes/day which
is nearly 1,388 days/day.
Based on the collected data and observed results, Table-12 shows total direct traffic
congestion cost as around 10.18 million PKR per day (0.1018 million USD per day) for the
road stretch under study using conservative definition of travel delay (i.e. 40 Km/hr reference
speed). On per year basis, this Figure will be approximately 37.15 Million USD per annum.
This is significant amount of monetary value that could be avoided by taking counteractive
measures. It is a very high cost especially when compared to the GDP. Therefore, as
happened in the Western World, serious mitigation steps needs to be implied here as well.
Furthermore, this is the loss incurred due to traffic congestion at a particular commuter
stretch. This value when extrapolated to the whole Karachi city makes the issue more
cumbersome. Thus, the policy making institutions needs to take serious actions to deal with
it.

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Table 12. Total Cost of direct traffic congestion per day in Pak Rupees

Heads

Loss in Million PKR/day

Opportunity Cost (OC)

6.711

Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC)

3.123

Wear and Tear Cost (10% of VOC)

0.347

Total Cost

10.18

The simple extrapolation of the traffic congestion cost for whole arterial network of Karachi
city can be done by calculating per km cost for the stretch under study, which is around 1.86
Million USD per Km per year. This cost needs to be multiplied with the existing length of
arterial network of Karachi i.e. 1,300 Km. This give total cost of 2.5 Billion USD per year
for whole Karachi that is equivalent to 1.5% of total GDP of Pakistan. Figure-8 presents
extrapolation of the value obtained for Karachi for future 10 years based on 10% constant
inflation rate.

7.13

6.48

5.89

5.36

4.87

4.43

4.03

3.66

3.33

3.03

2.75

6
2.50

Cost in Billion USD per Year

7.85

Traffic Congestion Cost - Extrapolation

10

2
0

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

Years

Figure 8. Extrapolation of traffic congestion cost of Karachi in future years

Figure-8 indicates that in year 2018, (which is 5 years from now), the Karachi congestion
cost will exceed 4 billion USD per year, which is representing 11% of the total GDP share of
Karachi at that time. The detailed report contains estimation based on other reference speeds
which will be available soon at IMC website (www.toyota-indus.com).

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7. Conclusion:
The research study estimated the traffic congestion cost of the major urban arterial of
Karachi. In addition to this, utilized the estimated cost to extrapolate the congestion cost of
all major arterials of Karachi and using GDP, to estimate the cost of other major cities of
Pakistan. This research is first of its kind in the country, and paves way for its further
enhancement in other parts of country to find out the scale of the problem caused by traffic
congestion. The estimated cost is significantly high especially when compared to the GDP.
Therefore, as happened in the Western World, serious mitigation steps needs to be implied
here as well. Furthermore, this is the loss incurred due to traffic congestion not included the
cost associated with indirect costs. It indirect cost is also estimated, that will present the more
drastic image of this issue.

8. Acknowledgements:
The first time of its kind in Pakistan, the research (TRTC) was funded by Indus Motor
Company Limited and the Department of Urban & Infrastructure Engineering, NED
University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi uses its expertise to achieve the objectives
set out for this study. We are particularly grateful to the Sindh Police Department for
providing necessary security arrangements at the data collection stage. We also thank to Civil
& Urban Engineering undergraduate students who took part in data extraction and tabulation
process.

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