An Effort to Improve Track and Intensity Prediction of Tropical Cyclones

through Vortex Initialization in NCUM-Global Model

Vivek Singh, A. Routray*, Swapan Mallick, John P. George and E. N. Rajagopal
National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Ministry of Earth
Sciences, A-50, Sector-62, Noida, UP, India, *E-mail: ashishroutray@ncmrwf.gov.in
Abstract
Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like
India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of
precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance.
However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the
years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak
and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in
the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the
forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along
with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the
impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model,
operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a
extremely severe cyclonic storm Chapala that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th
October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of
GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite
data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over
North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial
conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex
initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity
forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.
Key words: Tropical Cyclone; Vortex Initialization; Satellite observation; Track Error; UM
Model
1. Introduction:
The socio-economic condition of India is severely affected by extreme weather events like
Tropical Cyclones (TCs). The TCs which affect the India and neighboring countries, originate
over North Indian Ocean (NIO) region. Being destructive weather phenomenons, these TCs
cause devastation of life and property in India and neighboring regions. So an accurate prediction
of TC track and intensity is required by statistical and dynamical models providing TC forecasts.
Various researches through different approaches, statistical or/and dynamical models, have
reported improvements in TC track and Intensity forecasts over Indian region. The
improvements has been seen in the dynamical model by assimilating radiance and Doppler
Remote Sensing and Modeling of the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Interactions VI, edited by Tiruvalam N. Krishnamurti,
Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, Proc. of SPIE Vol. 9882, 988210 2016 SPIE CCC code: 0277-786X/16/$18
doi: 10.1117/12.2223431
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Weather Radar data in Weather Research Forecasting (WRF; Routray et al. 2015, 2013, 2010),
by using multi satellite data assimilation (Singh et al. 2008), with use of conventional and
satellite data in WRF model (Srinivas et al, 2010), and by incorporating the remote sensing data
over oceans in the forecasting models (Pu et al. 2002, 2008, Chen et al. 2006). Further
improvements in TC forecasting has been observed by adopting newer data assimilation schemes
(moving from 3DVar to 4D-Var data assimilation scheme) in various models (Huang et al.,
2009, Willemet et al. 2001, Pu et al. 2009, Lorenc et al. 2006). Improvements in model physics
and resolution have also shown the positive impact on TC track and intensity prediction (Heming
2010). Rao et al. (2009) found that enhancement of resolution of MM5 atmospheric model
produces higher intensity of Orissa Cyclone; however it does not influence the track prediction
of storms. Despite of these improvements, TC predicting models often face misplaced and weak
initial vortex problem which contribute in poor forecasting of TCs. The reason behind this is that
TCs often originate over data sparse regions. To overcome this problem another alternative and
efficient approach adapted in e TC forecasting is assimilation of synthetic (bogus) cyclone in
global NWP model to produce a good analysis and forecast of TCs. Conceiving this idea in mind
the present study attempts to improve the track and intensity of tropical cyclones in the NCUM
global model through Vortex (synthetic vortex) Initialization and satellite data assimilation.
Section 2 of this paper deals with synoptic features associated with TC Chapala. NCUM model
description has been presented in section 3. Section 4 tells about Data and Methodology used in
this study. Section 5 presented the results.
2. Synoptic features associated with TC:
The Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) Chapala formed and intensified into depression in
the morning of 28th October 2015. It became deep depression in the evening of 28th October.
This deep depression upgraded into cyclonic storm over east central Arabian Sea in the early
hours of 29th October. It further changed its track to west north westward and intensified into a
severe cyclonic storm and a very severe cyclonic storm in evening and midnight of 29th
October(figure1(a)). It further intensified into extremely severe cyclonic storm in the morning of
30th October. It further continued its track towards west and maintained its intensity till 1st
November. After 1st November it started weakening and crossed Yemen Coast as Very Severe
Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) around 0100-0200 UTC of 3rd November (Figure 1b). It had a
maximum intensity of 115 kts and its crossing speed of Yemen coast was 65 kts. ESCS Chapala
had a very long track length and total life period (approximately 2248 Km and 7 Days).

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3. Model Description:
The NCUM model based on UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) version 8.5 is used for
numerical simulation of VORT-GTS and VORT-RAD experiments in current study. This model
is currently operational at NCMRW and has been adopted from UK Met office UM. NCUM has
a horizontal resolution of approximately 17 Km near mid-latitudes with 70 vertical levels
reaching up to 80 km height. It has a defined set of physics settings which is known as General
Atmosphere (GA) version 6.1.Its dynamical core, ENDGame (Even Newer Dynamics for
General Atmospheric Modelling of the Environment), is designed to allow the code to be
switchable between various options i.e. from non-hydrostatic to hydrostatic, deep-atmosphere
and shallow-atmosphere formulations.
4. Data and Methodology:
In the present study newly adopted vortex-initialization scheme of NCUM global model
has been tested with ESCS case Chapala. The NCUM global Model assimilation forecast
experiments are carried out to study the impact of vortex initialization and the use of satellite
observation in the forecast of Chapala, viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with
VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data). In Vort-GTS, NCUM
is run with vortex initialization for all 5 initial conditions (29-October 2015 to 03-November2015) by assimilating GTS (all conventional observations available through Global
Telecommunication Network of WMO) observations only. However, for VORT-RAD, NCUM is
run with vortex initialization for all 5 initial conditions (29-October 2015 to 03-November-2015)
by assimilating GTS and all satellite observations available at NCMRWF. NCUM prediction of
satellite locations (latitude and longitude) are extracted by using NCEP TC tracker algorithm
applied on NCUM forecast fields. Predicted tracks (latitude and longitude) from both
experiments are compared with IMD observed locations. .
5. Results and Discussions:
The track and intensity of TC Chapala in VORT-RAD and VORT-GTS numerical experiments
are compared. The track produced by these numerical experiments is verified with respect to
India Meteorological best track data set. The tracks and corresponding direct positional errors are
plotted and computed for both the numerical experiments (VORT-RAD and VORT-GTS) from
29th October 2015 to 2nd November 2015.However the track and corresponding error for 29th
October 2015 only is presented. In addition to Direct Positional Error (DPE), Along Track Error
(ATE) and Cross Track Error (CTE) are also calculated for track predicted by both the numerical
experiments (Results not presented in this manuscript). Model predicted MSLP and 10m wind
forecasts have also been compared (results not shown) for two numerical experiments.

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b
b)

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Figure 1: Synoptic features asssociated wiith TC Chaapala; a) vaalid for 29thh October
v
for 3rd November 2015 c) Obsserved track
k.
2015 b) valid

The figurre (2) depictts the 24 houur wind foreecasts of twoo numerical experimentss based on Initial
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c
thhese wind forecasts
f
it is
i seen that wind
predictedd by VORT-GTS is intennse as compaared to VOR
RT-RAD expperiment.

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rh

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S. Also, the track

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error comparison (Figure 3b) shows that there is an improvement in track error in VORTRAD forecast over VORT-GTS. This improvement is more noticeable in VORT-RAD
beyond 60 hour lead time. The day-1 DPE improvement in VORT-RAD is approximately
14.5% over VORT-GTS.

Chapala forecast based on IC:20141029

a)

22 N

--------------

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-Observed Track

-Fcst Track (Vort-RAD)

-Fcst Track (Vort-GTS)

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Forecast hrs

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Figure 3: NCUM global model a) predicted track b) track errors by two numerical
experiments (VORT-RAD and VORT-GTS)

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Conclusion:
Accurate forecast of TC track and intensity is highly needed over NIO region. Despite of
satellite reconnaissance and other improvements in TC forecasting techniques, TC prediction is
still a major challenge for operational meteorological agencies. The objective of the study is to
evaluate the impact of vortex initialization along with the satellite data for simulation of intensity
and location of TC Chapala that occurred over the Arabian Sea. For this purpose, two
numerical experiments namely VORT-RAD and VORT-GTS are carried out. The position and
intensity errors are estimated with respect to the IMD observed datasets. The results have shown
positive impact of assimilating satellite data along with vortex initialization in NCUM global
model. The track of TC Chapala has been improved for VORT-RAD experiment. An overall
improvements ranging from 14.5-48%, have been found in track errors for TC case Chapala in
VORT-RAD experiment. It has also been found that MSLP and 10m wind predicted in VORTRAD experiment is in better agreement with observation than VORT-GTS experiment.
However, to better understand the effects of Vortex Initialization along with satellite data, more
case studies over Indian region are required in NCUM global model.
Acknowledgement:
The authors acknowledge the support of Noel E. Davidson of Centre for Australian
Weather and Climate Research Melbourne, Victoria, Australia for his immense help in the
implementation and use of vortex initialization scheme at NCMRWF. Thanks to IMD for
providing the best-tracks of the TC to validate the model simulations.

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