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Summary
Background Data from 12-week placebo-controlled trials have led to mounting concerns about increased mortality in
patients with Alzheimers disease (AD) who are prescribed antipsychotics; however, there are no mortality data from
long-term placebo-controlled trials. We aimed to assess whether continued treatment with antipsychotics in people
with AD is associated with an increased risk of mortality.
Methods Between October, 2001, and December, 2004, patients with AD who resided in care facilities in the UK were
enrolled into a randomised, placebo-controlled, parallel, two-group treatment discontinuation trial. Participants were
randomly assigned to continue with their antipsychotic treatment (thioridazine, chlorpromazine, haloperidol, trifluoperazine,
or risperidone) for 12 months or to switch their medication to an oral placebo. The primary outcome was mortality at
12 months. An additional follow-up telephone assessment was done to establish whether each participant was still alive
24 months after the enrolment of the last participant (range 2454 months). Causes of death were obtained from death
certificates. Analysis was by intention to treat (ITT) and modified intention to treat (mITT). This trial is registered with the
Cochrane Central Registry of Controlled Trials/National Research Register, number ISRCTN33368770.
Findings 165 patients were randomised (83 to continue antipsychotic treatment and 82 to placebo), of whom 128 (78%)
started treatment (64 continued with their treatment and 64 received placebo). There was a reduction in survival in the
patients who continued to receive antipsychotics compared with those who received placebo. Cumulative probability of
survival during the 12 months was 70% (95% CI 5880%) in the continue treatment group versus 77% (6485%) in the
placebo group for the mITT population. KaplanMeier estimates of mortality for the whole study period showed a
significantly increased risk of mortality for patients who were allocated to continue antipsychotic treatment compared
with those allocated to placebo (mITT log rank p=003; ITT p=002). The hazard ratio for the mITT group was 058
(95% CI 035 to 095) and 058 (036 to 092) for the ITT population. The more pronounced dierences between
groups during periods of follow up longer than 12 months were evident at specific timepoints (24-month survival
46% vs 71%; 36-month survival 30% vs 59%).
Interpretation There is an increased long-term risk of mortality in patients with AD who are prescribed antipsychotic
medication; these results further highlight the need to seek less harmful alternatives for the long-term treatment of
neuropsychiatric symptoms in these patients.
Funding UK Alzheimers Research Trust.
Introduction
Worldwide, there are an estimated 25 million people with
dementia,1 most of whom have Alzheimers disease (AD).
AD is a devastating illness, which results in a progressive
decline and distressing neuropsychiatric symptoms.24
Antipsychotics are widely used as the first-line
pharmacological approach to treat the neuropsychiatric
symptoms of AD. The results of 24 placebo-controlled
trials of typical or atypical antipsychotics have indicated a
significant57 but modest8 improvement in aggressive
behaviour compared with placebo over 612 weeks of
treatment.. The best evidence is for risperidone, for which
five placebo-controlled trials have been published.5 The
results of the few studies that lasted for 6 months or
longer suggest only modest8 or no benefit9,10 from longer
therapy.
www.thelancet.com/neurology Vol 8 February 2009
Published Online
January 9, 2009
DOI:10.1016/S14744422(08)70295-3
Wolfson Centre for Age-Related
Diseases, Wolfson Building,
Guys Campus, Kings College
London, London SE1 1UL, UK
(C Ballard MD,
K Kossakowski BSc, R Gill MBBS);
Northgate Hospital, Morpeth,
Northumberland, NE61 3BP,
UK (M L Hanney PhD);
Department of Psychiatry,
University of Oxford, The
Warneford Hospital, Oxford,
UK (M Theodoulou MRCPsych,
R Jacoby DM); Department of
Psychiatry, Newcastle
University, Newcastle upon
Tyne, UK (S Douglas BSc);
Oxfordshire and
Buckinghamshire Mental
Health NHS Trust and
University of Oxford,
Department of Psychiatry,
Fulbrook Centre, Oxford, UK
(R McShane MRCPsych); and
Centre for Statistics in
Medicine, University of Oxford,
Oxford, UK (E Juszczak MSc,
L-M Yu MSc)
Correspondence to:
Clive Ballard, Wolfson Centre for
Age-Related Diseases, Wolfson
Building, Guys Campus,
Kings College London,
London SE1 1UL, UK
clive.ballard@kcl.ac.uk
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165 randomised
Methods
Patients
Procedures
Initial randomisation was done centrally at the Centre for
Statistics in Medicine in Oxford (CSM), by use of
dedicated computer software (MINIM, version 1.5
[a randomisation program for allocating patients to
treatment in clinical trials]). The randomisation
www.thelancet.com/neurology Vol 8 February 2009
Articles
Placebo (n=82)
Women
64 (77%)
62 (76%)
Age (years)
Substantial EPS
39 (47%)
39 (48%)
Visual hallucinations
10 (12%)
10 (12%)
Delusional
27 (33%)
27 (33%)
Cholinesterase inhibitor
Atypical neuroleptic before
randomisation
2 (2%)
3 (4%)
57 (69%)
58 (71%)
11 (6 [n=83]); 16 (19%)
11 (5 [n=82]); 14 (17%)
SIB
NPI
FAST
mUPDRS 8 points
BADL
STALD (receptive)
STALD (expressive)
FAS
Data are number (%); mean (SD), range; median (IQR). EPS=extrapyramidal symptoms. SMMSE=standardised minimental state examination. SIB=severe impairment battery. NPI=neuropsychiatric inventory. FAST=functional
assessment staging. mUPDRS=modified unified Parkinsons disease rating scale. BADL=Bristol activities of daily living
scale. STALD=Sheffield test for acquired language disorders. FAS=functional assessment scale.
Statistical analysis
Demographic factors and clinical characteristics were
summarised with counts (percentages) for categorical
variables, mean (SD) for normally distributed continuous
variables, or median (interquartile or entire range) for
other continuous variables. Final mortality data were
collected as of Sept 15, 2006, and a survival analysis was
done on these data to produce KaplanMeier estimates
with log rank tests. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CIs were
estimated from the Cox regression model.
The principal analysis included everyone who received
at least one dose of treatment (defined as modified
intention-to-treat population [mITT]), in keeping with the
main trial. To assess whether the section of the analysis
population might have influenced the findings, additional
analyses were done on all participants who were
randomised (ITT population), which included those
participants who never started their allocated treatment
and those participants who received at least one dose of
treatment, but excluded those who stopped the allocated
treatment before 12 months. Cause of death (classified as
probable vascular event, possible vascular event, or
unrelated to vascular causes) was analysed with Fishers
exact test. SPSS (release 12.0.1) was used to enter and
manage data, and Stata (release 9.2) was used for
analyses.
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100
80
60
40
20
HR 058 (95% CI 035 to 095);
Log-rank p=003
0
0
Number at risk (deaths)
Continue treatment 64 (19)
Placebo 64 (15)
12
18
45 (13)
49 (3)
24
30
20 (6)
29 (6)
36
42
9 (1)
19 (2)
48
54
4 (0)
8 (1)
100
80
60
40
20
HR 058 (95% CI 036 to 092);
Log-rank p=002
0
0
Number at risk (deaths)
Continue treatment 83 (21)
Placebo 82 (17)
12
62 (14)
65 (4)
18
24
30
36
Time since randomisation (months)
23 (8)
32 (6)
10 (2)
21 (2)
42
48
54
4 (0)
9 (2)
Results
165 patients were randomised (83 to continue treatment
and 82 to placebo [discontinue treatment]). Ten patients
(12%) of those randomised to continue treatment and
16 patients (20%) of those randomised to placebo were
prescribed high-dose treatment and all other patients
were prescribed low-dose treatment. Although the
protocol permitted participants to receive very low doses,
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100
Placebo
Continue treatment
80
60
40
20
Log-rank p=003
0
0
Number at risk (deaths)
Continue treatment 29 (3)
Placebo 34 (1)
12
26 (7)
33 (1)
18
24
30
36
Time since randomisation (months)
13 (3)
19 (5)
7 (1)
11 (0)
42
48
54
3 (0)
7 (1)
Discussion
We report mortality in a long-term follow up of a cohort of
patients with AD who participated in a randomised,
placebo-controlled, antipsychotic withdrawal trial. During
the 12 months of the randomised phase of the trial, there
was an increase in mortality in the patients who continued
antipsychotic treatment (58% greater than placebo,
depending on the population analysed). Throughout the
54 months of follow up, there was a higher rate of mortality
in the patients who were randomised to continue
antipsychotic medication compared with those who were
randomised to discontinue antipsychotic medication,
particularly at 24, 36, and 48 months. The survival rates
were similar in additional analyses that focused on the
patients who continued their allocated treatment for at
least 12 months. These results suggest a persistent risk of
increased mortality with the long-term use of antipsychotics
in patients with AD.
The reasons why the biggest dierences in mortality
occurred after the 12-month randomised phase of the
trial are unclear, although the overall OR of risk during
the first 12 months was similar to that reported in case
register studies and to the extrapolated additional
mortality reported in a meta-analysis of 12-week
studies.13,20,21 In addition, the analysis of patients who
continued their allocated treatment for at least
12 months or until death showed a more clear separation
of the survival plots between 6 months and 12 months
of follow-up. One possible explanation for our findings
is that the most frail participants who had the most
severe dementia (ie, those most likely to die within
12 months) have a high mortality risk regardless of
whichever treatment is assigned. Another possible
explanation is that the close monitoring aorded during
a clinical trial was able to mitigate the eect of important
adverse outcomes. However, we must acknowledge that
fewer participants were analysed at the later time points,
at which the dierences in survival were greatest;
therefore, these results should be interpreted with
caution.
www.thelancet.com/neurology Vol 8 February 2009
Figure 3: KaplanMeier survival estimates of participants who received at least one dose of treatment and
continued allocated treatment for 12 months
The broken vertical line indicates the end of the 12-month randomised trial.
Continue treatment (n=39)
Placebo (n=27)
16 (41%)
12 (44%)
006
Possible
9 (23%)
3 (11%)
006
Probable
2 (5%)
7 (26%)
006
Missing
12 (31%)
5 (19%)
No
Placebo (n=31)
20 (44%)
15 (48%)
030
Possible
9 (20%)
4 (13%)
030
Probable
4 (9%)
7 (23%)
Missing
12 (27%)
5 (16%)
No
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that
psychological
management
can
replace
antipsychotic therapy without any appreciable
worsening of neuropsychiatric symptoms;17,25 and
although cholinesterase inhibitors do not seem to be an
eective short-term pharmacological treatment for
agitation,26 there is evidence that memantine27 or
antidepressants such as citalopram28 might be safer and
eective alternatives for some neuropsychiatric
symptoms.
Our opinion is that there is still an important but
limited place for atypical antipsychotics in the treatment
of severe neuropsychiatric manifestations of AD,
particularly aggression. However, the accumulating
safety concerns, including the substantial increase in
long-term mortality, emphasise the urgent need to put an
end to unnecessary and prolonged prescribing.
Contributors
CB, MLH, RMcS, RJ, and EJ participated in the original design of the
study, study governance, supervising study recruitment, and preparing
the first and subsequent drafts of the manuscript. MT, SD, and KK
participated in study recruitment, data collection and entry, and
preparing the first and subsequent drafts of the manuscript. RG
participated in data collection and entry, and the preparation of the first
and subsequent drafts of the manuscript. L-MY participated in
monitoring of data quality, data analysis, and preparing the first and
subsequent drafts of the manuscript.
Conflicts of interest
Within the past 5 years, CB has received honoraria from Novartis, Pfizer,
Shire, Lundbeck, Myriad, Servier, and Arcadia, and research grants from
Novartis and Lundbeck; and honoraria and research grants from
AstraZeneca and Janssen more than 5 years ago. None of the other
authors has any conflicts of interest.
Acknowledgments
This study was supported by a grant from the UK Alzheimers Research
Trust to CB, RJ, and RMcS.
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