Technology Forecasting and Assessment

Classification of Technology:
State-of-art technology: far superior to its counterparts.
Proprietary technology: protected by patents or agreements
Known Technology: Common to most organizations
Core Technology: essential to maintain once competitive advantage
Leveraging technology: supports number of products, product lines.
Supporting technology: provides support to core technology
Pacing technology: controlling the rate of development
Emerging technology: For future products or process
Scouting Technology: Formal tracking of potential products and processes.
Idealised unknown basic technology: Technology, if available would provide greater benefit.
Basic Technology:
WoodWard found that there is no relation between structure and performance.
Group
Technical
Complexity
Small Batches Production of single piece to customer order
Low
and unit
Production of technical complex pieces one by one
production
Fabrication of large equipment in stages
Production of pieces in small batches
Large batches
and mass
production
Continuous
production

Production of large batches, assembly line type

Mass production

Medium

Continuous production for large mass or batch production

Continuous process production of chemical batches
Continuous flow production of liquids, gases and solid
shapes

High

Management of Technology:
Technology management : Capacity of a firm, a group or society to master management of
the factors that condition technology change, for improvement.
Objectives
Human need satisfaction
Productivity gain
International trade gain
Self Reliance
Technological Independence
Constraints
Technological Level : Knowledge, skill,
information
Resources: Human, material, finance,
facilities, energy
Mechanisms
Awareness Measures
Science culture creation
Education and training
B & D Institution building

Activities
Assessment and planning
Transfer and adaptation
Research and development
Monitoring and control
Criteria
Maximize positive effect
Minimize negative effect

Time
Short range (1-5 years)
Medium Range ( 5 -10 years)
Long range (10-20 years)
Perspective range (>20 years)

Technology Strategy:
1. Kind of technology that a firm selects for acquisition, development, deployment or
divestment.
2. Commitments Decision to invest or not to invest

3. Not only confined to high technology industries.

4. Technology strategy embrace both hardware and software.
Categories for Technology strategy:
Strategies for competing in Emerging industries, Rapidly growing industries, Maturing
industries, etc
Emerging Industries:
Features:
New and Unproven market
Lack of consensus on which technology will win
Low entry barriers
First time buyers
Buyers delay until technology matures
Difficulty in securing raw materials
Firms struggle to fund R&D, operations.
Strategy:
Win early race for industry leadership by employing bold, creative strategy
Perfect technology, improve product quality, develop attractive features
Capture any first mover advantages
Form strategic alliances
Pursue new customers and users
Enter new geographical areas
Make it easy and cheap for first time buyers to try product.
Create brand loyalty
Use price cuts to attract price sensitive buyers
Strategic Hurdles:
Raising capital till sales and revenue take off, cash flow turns positive
Defending against competitors.
Meta process for Producing Process:
Meta process = process for processes.
Determine Requirements Engineering process needs:
Size and Complexity In terms of staffing, funding and schedule
Contractual Issues Subcontracting or Partnering. Requirements should be formal and high
quality
Legal and Regulatory Issues International and governmental standards
Support of Assessment SEI CMM. Required process components
Distributed development- Project is allocated on geographical basis. Specification and
communication of requirements should be formal and better documented.
Business Criticality- Some projects are very critical. Projects success or failure decides
business success or failure.
Requirements Volatility More volatile = support to quick and easy modification.
Stakeholder Involvement
Process Breath Specific process framework to RE or general process framework.
Corporate culture Level of formality ad completeness of the process.
Tool Compatibility
MetricsBudgetIdentify and obtain the process framework
Size and completeness
Cost
Tailorability
Build the Requirements Engineering Process:
Learn the process framework Learn meta-model process components and process
components from other disciplines (Scope control, configuration control, quality control, risk
management etc)

Select the relevant RE process components components from repository. (Requirements

work product, languages, work units, producers etc)
Select the RE work products Formal requirements delivered to customer. Informal
requirements that are used to build the requirements (Requirements model, specification
document etc)
Select the requirements language
Select the requirements work units Customer analysis, user analysis, technology analysis,
requirements specification etc. Techniques (Brainstoming, interviews, questionnaires, etc)
Select requirements producers (People) People, roles they play, team, organization. Allocate
work units to work producers.
Select the requirement stages Relevant phases, builds, milestones
Tailor the selected RE process components
Extend the reusable repository and process framework
Document RE process components
Integrate the RE process components
Verify the RE process documentation
Complete, Consistent, Usable, Validate, Approve and Publish, Train the RE process
stakeholders, Use the RE process, Iterate the process.
Benefits, Costs and Risk of RE process:
Benefits : Increased product quality, Increased process quality, Improved productivity
and schedule, consistency and compatibility, Helps in Process Assessment (Welldocumented, industry-best-practices, CMM, ISO audits)
Costs: Acquisition cost (reusable process components purchase), Construction cost,
tailoring and extension cost, Verification cost and consulting cost, training cost
Risks: Lack of tailorability, Ease of Tailorability, Appropriateness, Usability
Organisation Redesign
Principles Organisation Design:
1. The entire system has effect on individual elements
2. Individual elements has effect on entire system.
Impacts of Organisation Redesign:
Information System, Training System, Organisation Structure, Decision-Making System, Tasks
and Technologies
Redesign process:
1. Develop Business Vision and Process Objectives Prioritize objectives, stretch targets
2. Identify processes to be redesigned Identify critical or bottleneck processes
3. Understand and measure existing processes Identify current problem and set base line
4. Identify IT levers Brainstorm new process approaches
5. Design and build a prototype of the process Implement organizational and technical
aspects
Need for Org Redesign:
Barriers between inter department, department hierarchy, Paper work, meetings. To find
better way.
Eliminate costly shadow organisation, Improve efficiencies.
Organizational Structures:
Functional, Divisional, Matrix
People responsible for driving organisational redesign:
Organisational Leader Most senior person who sets the direction for the change process
Steering Team Key leaders, decision makers and stakeholders.
Responsibility:
Identify and appoint design team
Establish boundaries and guidelines for the design team
Approve design team recommendations

Ensuring design team has resources (men, material, money , time)

Design Team:
6-12 people. Leadership & fron-line ranks.
Responsibility:
Analyse the current design
Make recommendations for the new design
Get inputs from implementation team
Implementation Team:
People who actually hoave to use the new system, ideas and organisational design.
Renewal Team:
Team to monitor and assess the redesign process
Consultant:
Recommends and trains the design and steering team on how to use the design model.
Team Building:
Forming Membership
Storming / Norming Role allocation & building trust
Emerging of culture rules, norms, team cultures
Performing growing trust
Reforming.
Types of Design Process:
Steady state design Take time
Dynamic Design Process rarely operates in average circumstances.
Variabilty defined, Flexibility defined.
Steps involved in Organization Redesign:
Stage 1 : Define the need (To be)
Output : Competitive position, Critical Success Factor, A SWOT of To be
Stage 2: Agree the current As Is process:
Stage 3: Analysis & Concept Design of To-Be
Output: An innovative, lean & agile proposed process.
Control System established
Quick wins / Risks identified.
Stage 4: Detailed Design (Work breakup in detail)
Floor plan, Resource requirements, Computer Systems, Materials handling, Skills
required.
Stage 5: Implementation, Institutionalization & Improvement.
Handover the new process to operations
Scale of BPR:
Large scale BPR (High Risk)
Small scale BPR (Departmental Level small effect)
BPR without IT (Often inefficient operation. Solving wrong problem)
BPR with significant IT change (Very high risk, very high benefit)
Only Software implementation Automating ineffective process, Inappropriate technique.