Inferences on

Population Proportions

Use Calculation from Sample to

Estimate Population Parameter
Population

(select)

Sample
(calculate)

(describes)

Parameter

p?

(estimate)

Statistic

p 63%

Statistic
Describes

sample.
Always known
Changes upon
repeated
sampling.
Examples:

x , s , s, p

Parameter
Describes

a
population.
Usually unknown
Is fixed
Examples:

, , , p
2

A Statistic is a Random Variable

Upon

repeated sampling of the same

population, the value of a statistic
changes variable.
While we don t know what the next
sample will yield, we do know the
overall pattern over many, many
samplings random.
The distribution of possible values of a
statistic for repeated samples of the
same size from a population is called
the sampling distribution of the
statistic.

Proportion

We are interested in the distribution of

y
p
n

Note, p is cY where c = 1/n is a constant

and Y is a binomial random variable.
If Y is normally distributed, cY will also be
normally distributed.

If Y is normal cY is normal

cy
0.5y

For example: If Y is n(=100,2=4),

then (0.5)Y is n(=50, 2=1)

Distribution of Sample
Proportions
A normal curve can be used to
approximate the distribution of
sample proportions if:
The size of the sample or number of
repetitions is relatively large (say
30 or more).
While the sample size is relatively
small compared to the population
size (say < 10%)

Sampling Distribution for

p
The sampling distribution pof
based
on large n is approximately normal.


p
Sampling Distribution for
To completely define the normal
distribution of

We need the mean (expected value) and

variance.

Sampling Distribution ofp

1-
p z / 2

p (1 p )
n

p z / 2

p (1 p )
n

p (1 p )
n

So, at most, p will be

away from p, (1)100% of the time. We call this (1-)100% the level
of confidence.
z / 2

Repeated Sampling of Size

n
95%

95% of the time

our estimate
will be within
p(1 p)
1.96
n

of the truth.

Standard Error
We

dont know the value of p, so we

p
will use
we usep , we have an
estimate of the standard deviation
p distribution of .
for the sampling

When

We

call this estimate the standard

error.
p (1 p )

Confidence Interval for

p
(1 )100%CI for p : p z / 2
Exampl
e:

p (1 p )
n

p (1 p )
95%CI for p : p 1.96
n

Confidence Interval
Based on Normal
Distribution

Pt Est ( Z Value) (Standard Error)

z / 2
p

(1 p
)
p
n

Standard error is our estimate of the

standard deviation for the distribution of
the point estimate.

Sample Size
Maximum Error e z/2

p (1 p )
n

(solving for n)

2
z / 2 p (1
2

p )

Sample Size

If

p
you cant guess a value for

n
What

2
z / 2 (.5)(.5)
2

2
z / 2
2

4e

sample size would you

recommend to estimate the
proportion of exeedences with a 95%
confidence interval and maximum
error of 2%?

Research Update!
Recent

research shows that we get

better coverage for (1-)100% CIs
on
p-hat if we alter the CI formula.

95%CI:

where

p z / 2

x2
p
n4

p (1 p )
n4

(Agresti/Coull)

Estimation Procedures: An Example

Basic Logic
In estimation procedures, statistics
calculated from random samples are
used to estimate the value of
population parameters.
Example:
If we know 42% of a random sample
drawn from a city are Republicans, we
can estimate the percentage of all city
residents who are Republicans.

Basic Logic
Information from
samples is used to
estimate
information about
the population.
Statistics are used
to estimate
parameters.

POPULATION

SAMPLE

PARAMETER

STATISTIC

Basic Logic
Sampling Distribution
is the link between
sample and
population.
The value of the
parameters are
unknown but
characteristics of the
S.D. are defined by
theorems.

POPULATION

SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION

SAMPLE

Two Estimation Procedures

A point estimate is a sample statistic
used to estimate a population value.
A newspaper story reports that 74% of a
sample of randomly selected Americans
support capital punishment.

Confidence intervals consist of a

range of values.
between 71% and 77% of Americans
approve of capital punishment.

Constructing Confidence
Intervals For Means
Set the alpha (probability that the interval
will be wrong).
Setting alpha equal to 0.05, a 95% confidence
level, means the researcher is willing to be
wrong 5% of the time.

Find the Z score associated with alpha.

If alpha is equal to 0.05, we would place half
(0.025) of this probability in the lower tail and
half in the upper tail of the distribution.

Substitute values into equation.

Confidence Intervals For Means

For a random sample of 178
households, average TV viewing was
6 hours/day with s = 3. Alpha = .05.
N=178.

c.i.
c.i.
c.i.
c.i.

=
=
=
=

6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0

1.96(3/177)
1.96(3/13.30)
1.96(.23)
.44

Confidence Intervals For Means

We can estimate that households in this
community average 6.0.44 hours of TV
watching each day.
Another way to state the interval:
5.566.44
We estimate that the population mean is greater
than or equal to 5.56 and less than or equal to
6.44.

This interval has a .05 chance of being

wrong.

Confidence Intervals For Means

Even if the statistic is as much as
1.96 standard deviations from the
mean of the sampling distribution the
confidence interval will still include
the value of .
Only rarely (5 times out of 100) will
the interval not include .

Other confidence levels

Confidence Alpha
level
90%
.10

Alpha/2

Z score

.05

+/- 1.65

95%

.05

.025

+/- 1.96

99%

.01

.0050

+/- 2.58

99.9%

.001

.0005

+/- 3.29

Constructing Confidence Intervals

For Proportions
Procedures:
Set alpha.
Find the associated Z score.
Substitute the sample information into
Formula

Confidence Intervals For

Proportions
If 42% of a random sample of 764 from a
Midwestern city are Republicans, what % of
the entire city are Republicans?
Dont forget to change the % to a
proportion.

c.i.
c.i.
c.i.
c.i.

=
=
=
=

.42
.42
.42
.42

1.96 (.25/764)
1.96 (.00033)
1.96 (.018)
.04

Confidence Intervals For

Proportions
Changing back to %s, we can estimate that
42% 4% of city residents are
Republicans.
Another way to state the interval:
38%Pu 46%
We estimate the population value is greater than
or equal to 38% and less than or equal to 46%.

This interval has a .05 chance of being

wrong.

SUMMARY
In this situation, identify the
following:

Population
Sample
Statistic
Parameter

SUMMARY
Population = All residents of the
city.
Sample = the 764 people selected
for the sample and interviewed.
Statistic = Ps = .42 (or 42%)
Parameter = unknown. The % of all
residents of the city who are
Republicans.

Estimating Population Parameters:

Another Example

Estimating Population Proportion

Example: When surveying 500 people selected at random
from the general population we get 200 responses of yes
when asked if they like broccoli. Estimate the proportion of
the population that likes broccoli.
p = x/n = 200/500 = 0.40
q = 1 - p = 0.60
np = 200 > 25 and nq = 300 > 25 normal aprox. is OK
At the 95% confidence level we have /2 = 0.025 and z/2 = 1.96
The margin for error is E = z/2(.4*.6/500) = 1.96(.022) = 0.043
P(p- 0.043 < p < p+ 0.043) = P(.357 < p < .443) = 0.95

Estimating Population Proportion

There are two user controlled factors that determine the
margin of error

E = z/2(pq/n)

(1)

1. The confidence level 1 -

The smaller , the greater z/2 and the greater E
2. The sample size n
The larger a value of n, the smaller E
If the experimenter wants to fix the width of the confidence
interval (by setting E to a pre-determined constant) and set
the confidence level (by selecting a particular ), then we
can use equation (1) above to determine the sample size
needed to achieve this level of precision.

Estimating Population Proportion

E = z/2(pq/n)

(1)

Set E and to desired values E and z/2 are

constant. Solve equation (1) for n

n = z/22(pq)/E2

(2)

In equation (2) we have not yet taken a sample from the

population, so we cannot be sure what the proportion of
successes might be. The value of p that we use in this
equation may be an estimate that we make based upon
some prior knowledge, or, we may chose p = q = 0.5,
which maximizes n for particular choice of and E

Estimating Population Proportion

Returning to our previous example, suppose we choose = 0.05,
E = 0.025, and have no prior knowledge about p
The from equation (2) on the previous slide we obtain

n = z/22(pq)/E2
Where

z/2 = 1.96

and

n = (1.96)2 (0.25)/0.0252
n = 1536.4 1537

Estimating the population mean, known

Assume:
Sample size, n > 30
Population standard deviation is known

Then from the Central Limit Theorem, we know that the

sampling distribution for samples of size n
Has mean x = , the mean of the original population
Has x = /n

Estimating the population mean, known

Let x be the mean of the sample of size n, then we
have for a confidence interval 1 - given by

P(x z/2/n < < x + z/2/n) = 1 -

Let the margin of error E = z/2/n
Then with a probability of 1 - the population
mean lies between x E and x + E

Estimating the population mean, known

mean from sample of size n

x
E

If the mean were 1 the probability of

getting a sample x would be /2
1

/2

If the mean were 2 the

probability of getting a
sample x would be /2
/2

Estimating Population mean with unknown

If the population standard deviation is unknown, the
sample will have to provide both an estimate on the
population mean and standard deviation.
Estimation of the population mean will be similar to how it
was done when is known, but the sample standard
deviation will be used instead. Students t-distribution will
be used to determine the margin of error, and the confidence
interval will be somewhat wider than it would be for the
same sample size if were known.

Estimating Population mean with unknown

Step 1. For a sample of size n, n 30, calculate the sample
mean x, and sample standard deviation s
Recall: the sample variance s2 =(fixi2 (fixi)2)/(n 1)

Step 2. Convert to a standard t-score

t = (x - )/(s/n)
Where is the (unknown) mean of both the original
population and the sampling distribution
Step 3. Select a confidence level 1 - , and determine t/2
Step 4. Find the margin of error E = t/2 (s/n)
Then P(x E x + E) = 1 -

Estimating Population mean with unknown

Finding t/2
Choose = 0.05 , and assume n = 30 From table A-3
Degrees of
Area in One Tail
freedom
0.005
0.01
0.025
0.05
.
29
2.756
2.462
2.045
1.699
Then t/2 = 2.045

for n 1 = 29 degrees of freedom

Estimating Population mean with unknown

Using the TI calculator to find confidence interval for a
statistic with t-distribution
Let n = 106, x = 98.2, s = 0.62
Construct 99% Confidence Interval
Step 1: Select STAT > TESTS scroll down to 8: TInterval
Step 2: Select Stats if x, n, and s are known
Select Data if these values are to be calculated from a
list
Step 3: (Stats) Use the arrow key to move to each prompt and
enter the values given above. Then Calculate <enter>
Answer: TInterval (98.081, 98.319)

Estimating Population Variance

Requirements:
1. The sample is a simple random sample
2. The population must have normally distributed
values
The sample variance has 2 distribution
2 = (n 1) s2/ 2
Where
n = sample size
s2 = sample variance
2 = population variance (to be determined)

Estimating Population Standard Deviation

Confidence Interval for the Population Variance:
(n-1)s2/ 2R < 2 < (n-1)s2/ 2L

/2

/2

2
R

2 distribution is skewed right and always positive

Estimating Population Standard Deviation

Example: Given the following data, find the 95% confidence
interval for the population standard deviation
n = 41, x = 67200, s = 18277
P{(n-1)s2/ 2R < 2 < (n-1)s2/ 2L} = 0.95
First find 2R and 2L when each tail of the distribution contains
2.5% of the area under the curve
From Table A-4 for the Chi-Square Distribution
Degrees of
Freedom

Area to the right of the Critical Value

0.995

0.99

0.975

0.95

0.10

0.05

0.025

.
40

20.707

22.164

24.443

26.509

51.805

55.758

59.342

Estimating Population Standard Deviation

From the previous slide we have 2R = 59.342 and 2L = 24.433
And therefore:
(n-1)s2/ 2R = 40 (18277)2/59.342 = 2.2516 x 108
and
(n-1)s2/ 2L = 40 (18277)2/24.433 = 5.4688 x 108
Thus we have:
P(2.2516 x 108 < 2 < 5.4688 x 108) = 0.95
and for the standard deviation
P(15,005 < < 23385) = 0.95