Documente Academic
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Yasubikn Dote
Mika Yoneyama
Kushiro branch
Deuartment of Comuuter
Science & Systems
Engineering
Muroran Institute of
Technology
27-1, Mizumoto-cho,
Muroran 050, JAPAN
Phone: +SI-143-46-5432;
FAX: +SI-14346.5499
Deuartment of Comuuter
Science & Systems
Panasonic
Mobile & System
Engineering Co.,Ltd.
Technology
27-1, Mimmoto-cho,
Muroran 050, JAPAN
Phone: +SI-143-46-5432;
F A X +SI-143-46-5499
series using a Hurst exponent, a fractal analysis method,
and an autocorrelation analysis method. In order to extract
the knowledge, decision making rules comprehensible by
humans using the features are derived with rough set
theory [26]. Finally the knowledge is embedded into the
stmcture of the Time Delayed Neural Network (TDNN).
The accurate prediction is obtained.
Fractal
1 Introduction
The Nikkei Average Stock prices over 1500 days are
in the middle of the apparently chaotic world. In this
paper. on the basis of Zadehs proposal: i.e., From
Manipulation of Measurements to Manipulation of
Perceptions-Computations with Words [25], that is a data
mining technology, knowledge easily comprehensible by
humans is extracted by obtaining the features of the time
0-7803-7952-7/03/$17.00 0 2003 IEEE.
Engineering
Muroran Institute of
Shinji U z u r a b a s h i
134
2.3 R I S method
The rescaled range analysis, also called as R I S or
Hurst method, was invented by Hurst for the evaluation of
time dependent hydrological data [8][9]. His original
work is related to the water reservoirs and the design of an
ideal storage on river Nile. After the detailed discussion of
this work by Mandelbrot [lO][ll], the method has
attracted much attention in many fields of science. For the
mathematical aspects of the method we refer to the papers
of Mandelbrot [19], Feder 1121, and Daley [13]. Since its
earliest days the method was used for a number of
applications, whenever the question was the quantification
of long range statistical interdependence within time
series. As examples we can cite the analysis of the
asymmetry of solar activity [7][8],relaxation of stress [SI,
problems in particle physics [IS], mechanical sliding in
solids [19]. The Hurst analysis is also used as a tool to
determine the self-similarity parameter of fractal signals
[20-231, or to detect unwanted correlations in pseudorandom number generaton [23]. The Hurst exponent was
calculated for corrosion noise data in the work of Moon
and Skerry [24] where the corrosion resistance properties
of organic paint films was analyzed and a direct
relationship between the Hurst exponent and the corrosion
resistance of different coatings was established. Greisiger
and Schauer [15] discussed the applicability of different
methods to the electrochemical potential and current noise
analysis. They concluded, that the Hurst exponent allows
the extraction of mechanistic information about corrosion
processes, hence suitable for characterizing coatings.
2.2
Box-counting
L ( 6 ) oc F D
where D is an exponent known as the fractal
dimension. (For ordinary curves ~ ( 6 )approaches a
constant value as 6 decreases) Box-counting algorithms
measure L(S) for varying 6 by counting the number of
non-overlapping boxes of size 6 required to cover the
curve. These measurements are fitted to Eq. ( I ) to obtain
an estimate of the fractal dimension, known as the box
dimension. A fractal dimension can be assigned to a set of
time series data by plotting it as a function of time, and
calculating the box dimension. Eq. (1) will hold over a
finite range of box-size; the smallest boxes will be of
width r , where r is the resolution in time, and height 0 ,
where a is the resolution of the magnitude of the time
series.
(3)
Next the accumulative deviation from the mean,
as
J , ~ is
, evaluated
~
(4)
1=4.>
135
R, I,)
= "Yk,k.,"
1- "Yk
,.lo
2.4
(5)
2.5
I = ( l , + m , ) where m=1,2;..,[N/j]
I=[Nij]
R/S=C ( R j l /Sj,,)
IN1 f M,
where H = I12
('I
(9)
, 5 is a normalized independent
RISocr'
(8)
[5]:
C(t)= 22x-1- 1
(10)
i_-__I
0s
0.3
0.
0
).
0.66Pn-010,l
10
o,
o.
,e
10
so
I_
IO
137
Brownian Motion
Lower approximation
Upper approximation
Aooroximation accuracv
Class
Number of objects:
N=3
3
Upper approximation
Approximation accuracy
1
1
Class
Number of objects
Similaritv (Fractal)
1
4.1
Upper approximation
Aooroximation accuracv
I
I
1
1
I
Out utNode
E ochs
500
300
4.1.1
Error 0)
Epochs
59.4803
201
304.9743
447
Zl:delay element
3 Inputs Nodes
5 Inputs Nodes
59.4803
201
304.9743
447
input
input
FIR filters
Three-layer
Three-layer
Zl. .Pm
Back Propagation
Neural Network
JUtpUt
K)
Z-1-- 2-1
Back Pmpagation
.2
Neural Nework
2-1.
2-1..
2~'
..__.."..
output
Three-layer
input
Three-layer
Neural Network
"-.I
I
-
">-
- c .-*./-
d
,
-
139
4.2
I T T i n p u t Nodes
filters
\
3-order FIR filter
Hidden Node
OutputNode
Epochs
3 Inputs Nodes
connected
3
I
I
5 Inputs Nodes
connected
3
filters
500
300
I
I
Erroro)
59.4803
Epochs
201
5 Input Nodes
304.9743
447
5 Input Nodes
88.2962
154
Conclusion
References
47.3381
E r r o r 0)
Epochs
88.2962
154
3 Inputs Node
Error 0)
Epochs
47.3381
37
5 Inputs Node
88.2962
154
..
,/%_I
[9] H. E. Hurst, R. P. Black and Y. M. Simaika, Longterm Storage, an Experimental Study, Constable, London,
1965.
140
1969, p. 228.
141