Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
2011-16 pronstico
6
1990-2010
5
4
3
2
1
0
Fuente: IMF
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011e
-400
-800
-1200
-1600
Fuente: Wood Mackenzie, Estimados de Xstrata, Deutsche Bank
Huelgas
Menores leyes de mineral
Mayor ratio de desbroce
Clima adverso
Convulsin social
Mayor dureza del mineral
Desastres naturales
Accidentes/Fallas de equipos
New York
Steve Kanner
+1 212 878 4192
Sydney
Rick Holmes
+61 2 9256 9599
Tokyo
Tomohiro Saeki
+81 3 3285 3370
This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial
instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. All market prices, data and other information are not warranted as to completeness
or accuracy and are subject to change without notice. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of Mitsui Bussan
Commodities (USA) Inc., its subsidiaries and affiliates. Mitsui Bussan Commodities Limited is Authorized and Regulated by the Financial
Services Authority.
David Jollie
David.jollie@mitprecious.com
Tel: +44 20 7489 6762
22 June, 2012
Metales Preciosos
Se acabo el ciclo alcista?
21 de Junio, 2012
New York:
200 Park Avenue,
New York,
NY 10166 0130
Tel: +1 212 878 4122
London:
4th Floor,
St Martins Court,
10 Paternoster Row,
London EC4M 7BB
Tel: +44 20 7489 6767
Hong Kong:
Suite 1306,
Two Exchange Square,
8 Connaught Place,
Central, Hong Kong
Tel: +852 2899 2026
Tokyo:
2-1 Ohtemachi 1-Chome,
Chiyoda-Ku,
Tokyo 100
Tel: +81 33 285 3407
Sydney:
Level 46 Gateway,
1 Macquarie Place,
Sydney,
NSW 2000
Tel: +61 29 256 9442
Source: LBMA
May 12
Mar 12
Jan 12
Nov 11
Sep 11
Jul 11
May 11
Mar 11
Jan 11
Nov 10
Sep 10
Jul 10
May 10
Mar 10
Jan 10
1,000
Comparando picos
Otra comparacin
Indexed Gold Price
160
150
2007-2009
2010-2012
140
130
120
110
100
Source: LBMA
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
90
Devaluacin
del Euro
Reciclaje
industrial
India?
Renta
variable +
Lmites a
posiciones
Temores a
la inflacin
Riesgo
soberano
China
QE3?
Bancos
Centrales
Bajas tasas
de inters
Temores a la
deflacin
Reciclaje neutral
Apata a los riesgos neutral
Devaluacin del Euro neutral / perjudicial
Reaccin al precio menos perjudicial de lo esperado
Lmites a posiciones se vuelve menos perjudicial
Renta Variable menos perjudicial de lo esperado
India perjudicial
Source: Bloomberg
May 12
Mar 12
Jan 12
Nov 11
Sep 11
Jul 11
May 11
Mar 11
Jan 11
Nov 10
Sep 10
Jul 10
May 10
Mar 10
Jan 10
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
Incremento
produccin
Sensibilidad
al precio
Precio de
la Plata
Temores a
la inflacin?
Pequeos
inversionistas
Incrementos
en el oro
Bajas tasas
de inters
El comportamiento de la plata
Indium and silver prices (USD/kg)
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Indium
800
Silver
600
400
200
Source: LBMA
May 12
Mar 12
Jan 12
Nov 11
Sep 11
Jul 11
May 11
Mar 11
Jan 11
Nov 10
Sep 10
Jul 10
May 10
Mar 10
Jan 10
May 12
Mar 12
Jan 12
Nov 11
Sep 11
Jul 11
May 11
Mar 11
Jan 11
Nov 10
Sep 10
Jul 10
90,000
Ounces, Million
300
250
200
150
100
50
Apr 12
Jan 12
Oct 11
Jul 11
Apr 11
Jan 11
Oct 10
Jul 10
Apr 10
Jan 10
Conclusiones finales
Corto Plazo/Mediano Plazo (2012-2015)
Preocupante situacin econmica actual en los pases desarrollados
Soportar al precio del oro (en menos medida a la plata)
Perjudicar al precio del cobre (en menos medida al zinc y al plomo)