MATHEMATICAL MODEL TO PREDICT THE PATH OF

ORBIT OF HEAVENLY BODY

(by Munmi Goswami)
(This article is a part of a high school note prepared by the author)
contd.....
Mathematical modelling to predict orbital path of comets, meteors and other minor
planets:

(Fig. 3: Mathematical Model of an elliptical path traversed by comets, meteors and other
minor planets)
The mathematical modelling to predict the orbital path of comets, meteors and other minor
planets has been explained with reference to Fig. 3. We have taken the centre at O (0, 0).
AB is the major axis and CD is the minor axis. The foci have been represented as F1 (-ae, 0)
and F2 (ae, 0). We have assumed that the Sun is at F2 while F1 is the empty focus.
Theperihelion will occur at point B (a, 0) and the aphelion will occur at A (-a, 0).
1. We assume from Keplers astronomical proofs that the path of comets, meteors and other
minor
planets
is
elliptical.
2. We will require two positions of the comet or meteor or minor planet in terms of x and y
co-ordinates.
3. We will then use equation (i) of an ellipse to determine the constants a and b. Once a
and b have been found out, we can determine the exact equation of the ellipse that shall
give the equation of the orbital path along which the comet, meteor or minor planet shall
travel.
4. This will enable us to find the time required by the comet, meteor or minor planet to
complete one revolution of path. This is called the time period, represented by T.
5. We shall also be able to determine the position of the comet closest to the Sun
(perihelion).
Mathematical Solution:
Let any two positions of a comet (say) be M (p, q) and N (r, s). The co-ordinates are
expressed in Astronomical Unit (AU), where 1 AU = 150 million kilometres = 150000000
kilometres. According to our mathematical modelling, we know that the path is elliptical. So,
from equation of an ellipse as in equation (i), we get

Now, (iii) x s2 (iv) x q2 gives

[NOTE: The modulus | |sign has been used to avoid negative value in the square
root]
Again, (iii) x r2 (iv) x p2 gives

We have used only positive values of a and b, because they are lengths of semi major axis
and semi minor axis respectively.
So we get the equation of the ellipse as:

So, from two positions M (p, q) and N (r, s) of the comet, we have predicted the orbital path
given by equation (v). The pair of co-ordinates through which the comet shall pass will
satisfy the equation (v).
From Keplers Second Law, the orbit period of the comet in unit of years is given by:

The position of the comet closest to the Sun from Fig. 3 is given by:

...(vii)

Example:
Let us assume that the co-ordinates of the point M (+10, +4) and N (+14, +3). The positions
are expressed in Astronomical Unit. (1 AU = 150 million kilometres).
Following our proposed mathematical model, at first we determine the equation of the
ellipse.
Here,
p = 10, q = 4, r = 14 and s = 3.
From equation (v),

So, we get, a = 17.87 AU and b = 4.82 AU.

The orbit period of the comet is:

The position of the comet closest to the Sun is given by:

In this way, the equation of the predicted orbital path given by (viii) has been determined with
the help of the mathematical model. Also, the orbit period and the position of the comet
closest to the Sun have been calculated.
Conclusion
The mathematical modelling to predict the orbital path of comets, meteors and other minor
planets has been analysed in this report. We have the following conclusions:

1.
The
orbital
path
of
a
heavenly
body
is
elliptic.
2. The sun is assumed to remain at one of the foci of the elliptical path.
3. Mathematical modelling of a physical event makes predictions easier.
References:
http://www.nasa.gov/index.html
Munmi Goswami is a 10th Standard student of Cambridge Public School, Guwahati,
Assam. This piece of article is a supplementary note that she had prepared for her 10th
Standard project. She keeps interest in Classical Dance and handicrafts.